Could Labour’s selection process make it vulnerable to attack?
December 1st, 2005-
Should the unions have 33.3% of the votes for the next Prime Minister?
When Tony Blair was elected Labour’s leader in 1994 it was the first time that every single member of the party had a vote and great play was made of the fact that this was a more democratic process than the Tories.
It was partly as a result of this that William Hague initiated the changes in the Tory system that leaves the final choice with a secret membership ballot. More by bungling than design the Tories decided in September to keep with this and 
David Cameron’s expected election on Tuesday will, at least, look legitimate.
The Lib Dems have had one member one vote since the party’s creation in 1987.
Labour, by contrast, still has the unions playing a big part in its process and on this it might be vulnerable. The party’s 1993 rules give a third of the votes to the trade unions, a third to MPS and a third to the membership ballot. Given that the next Labour election will be about choosing a Prime Minister the union role could be a political issue.
Although eligible individual members get a ballot trade union leaders will have a big role in influencing the outcome. Last time 52.3% of the union share went to Blair compared with 58.2% from party members and 60% from MPs.
Avoiding the Trade Union issue in the election might be a reason why many are pressing for Gordon Brown to be the only candidate.
The Labour process also produces quirks like that of MPs who are also a union members having votes in all three parts of the ballot.
Mike Smithson
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Out of curiosity, what would be needed for Labour to change the system - presumably a majority vote under the current system?
O/T the Apollo Proct site is today listing the best lib dem blogs from November, and beginning the build-up to Monday’s centenary celebrations.
Quiz question: How many of Cameron’s ancestors lost their seats in 1906?
sorry “Apollo Project”
http://liberalism2010.blogspot.com/
Only Annual Conference can change the system. At conference the unions have 50% of the vote so they are unlikely to abolish their share in the leadership electoral college.
With party membership fairly low now, the participation of 1m+ individual trade unionists has to be a good thing - almost making the election of leader a primary - it means the leader is elected by a wider group of Labour supporters, not just committed activists.
I’m usually a bit of a democratic purist but in the case of party leadership elections I’m not so sure. The problem with primaries and one member one vote, from the party’s point of view, is that you’re more likely to get a candidate from the party’s ideological heart, rather than an election winner - someone like Howard Dean, or Michael Foot for example. That’s certainly an argument against union votes and probably an argument for MPs and other elected representatives to have a vote, perhaps 30%.
If all the parties had the same election system, however, then it would be a good thing for as many people as possible to vote. The parties would pull apart a bit ideologically, so it would be less true that ‘they’re all the same’.
And yes, union votes will damage Labour presentationally and reduce the chance of them getting a winner.
ISTR that last time there was a lot of “peer group pressure” on the TUs to ballot their members (i.e. at their expense, rather than the Party’s :)) with mixed results.
Like in the Tory party (and I suspect the Lib Dems as well) the MPs really think they should pick the leader.
Ever since Tony Benn got within a hairs-breath of the deputy leadership the MPs have tried to make sure contests are decided before a wider vote, it was Gordon Brown’s inability to get enough MPs to support him that stopped him from standing against Blair.
Trade Unions have to ballot their members before casting their votes but the leadership can influence in two ways, they can recommend totheir members and they can choose whether to cast all their votes for the highest candidate or break it proportionately.
4 - how representative do you think union members are of Labour supporters in general?
What is the proportion of public sector workers among union members? What is it among Labour voters generally?
8. I would have thought public sector workers were an overwhelming share of Labour members.
In answer to the question posed, No, it won’t. Why? because the Unions have to ballot all their members, so it is one member one vote. That was what all the fuss was about under John Smith, remember?
Also, no-one cares.
below par post, I’m afraid.
8 - I’d have thought they were pretty representative
I think about 60% of all union members work in the public sector (about 3 in 5 public sector workers are members compared to about 1 in 5 private sector workers). However when you take into account the fact that many big public sector unions (civil service unions, teaching unions, even the FBU now) are not affiliated to the Labour party then there are possibly more private sector members of unions with a say in the leadership than public sector.
Gordon Brown’s economic skills demonstrated.
[12] Harsh. GB is a politician, not a trader. He sold 3G telecoms licences, on behalf of the taxpayer, right at the top market. Was that deliberately clever? er, no–random, same as the gold sale.
GB has done much damage–look no further than pensions. And nobody has made that stick…..
But it is counter-productive to criticise him for not being a trader–he doesn’t claim to be one.
Re previous thread which I’ve just seen this. Mike I’d urge you NOT to lay any more £££ against GB at these prices. Obviously it’s not certain GB is next Lab leader but I’d put it at about 90%. Definitely no less than 80%. If anything it’s a buy on Betfair - though perhaps not such good odds as to be worth tying up the money. To be fair, this first really poor tip I recall from Mike since buying big gains for the LDs at the GE. And he’s made lots of £££ since!
I remember being in unison and the public sector one for theinland revenue, I forget the name, nobody but the hardcore left voted in any elections and were just turned of by the process of a bunch of loonies running around the office claiming to be the voice of the working class. It reminded me of Robert Lindsay in Citizen smith.
Sorry about hte pre-amble but because of the above i can never see huge amounts of union members voting especially with branches run by those types. People in my two offices joined just as an insurance policy against getting the sack.
Anyway sorry about the lack of posts recently, no internet at my new house. on other news its my Birhtday on Sunday. Oh and some of you may be right about Broooklands.
While I doubt that there is value in betting against Brown to take the Labour leadership I think that Mike is quite right to point out the negative effects on the Labour party of having a contest in which the unions have an opportunity to flex their muscles.
It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the first poll to show the Conservatives ahead of Labour (which I fully expect, barring the implosion of Cameron), and how this will influence Labour’s internal politics.
The whole concept of GB being unopposed is not going to happen. There are too many MPs that will see this as their only possible chance to get to no.10, and as such will throw their hat in the ring.
Whoever it is it will be a short tenure in no.10, no point in unpacking the suitcase.
If Tories and others can link the public sector unions’ level of control over Labour leadership and policy to their insistence on public sector workers retiring seven years earlier than private sector workers, most definitely.
I’ve never seen why the union influence on Labour policy and leadership is seen as any more acceptable than business influence on the Tories would be. If HSBC and Shell and the like funded Tory candidates across the country and got 33% of the vote in its leadership contests and policy conferences, there would be outrage.
9 and 11 - representative of Labour members, maybe, but not really voters. So the involvement of union members doesn’t really make it a “primary”.
The CBI has just released figures showing the weakest high street sales in November since their series began in 1983 - it looks like Christmas meltdown for retailers. Could this start to affect this debate….?
Re 17 Like who? Most of the big beasts are non-runners. Charles Clarke might just think it’s worth a go. Miliband and Benn would be wise to wait - not least ’cause they won’t be thanked for spiking a well timed and organised transition. That’s it!
18. Very true. The practise of opting people in to fund the labour party when you join a union is wholly unacceptable.
20. Looking at things simplistically, we may have reached the stage where the credit cards are maxed and people have got many of the essential items they need.
18. BTW, any chance you could possibly alter your name on here slightly to differ you from Peter the Lib Dem. Can get confusing.
I think I was here first. I’m certainly better known in the blogging ‘community’ as a whole.
“I’ve never seen why the union influence on Labour policy and leadership is seen as any more acceptable than business influence on the Tories would be.”
Just to make it even more confusing . I´ll take issue with the other Peter!
What is the point of “would” here “used to be” I could understand (if you’re sure that they no longer think it worthwhile).
I don’t really get the question - unions have to ballot their members, so it is one member one vote? which makes this thread a bit skewed. also, remember that the current system produced Tony Blair, hardly a leftie and the winner of a general election landslide 3 years later. in other words, how labour chooses it’s leader is completely irrelevant to all but the editors of the mail, express and telegraph.
re economy, retails sales etc… remember the recessions of 98/99 or during the last Parliament … or the house price crash…etc…etc?? I’ve been noting the doomsayers since 1998. It’s important not to equate some relative weaknesses with serious economic problems. GB has got difficulties keeping to his own rules and needs to close the govt spending gap in the medium term. But comparing internationally, stability, jobs, interest rates, growth, total govt borrowing all look ‘not bad’. It’s not long since the critics were going on about over-dependence on retail sales and pooring scorn on the falling savings ratio - can’t have it both ways!
Historically, the Labour Representation Committee was formed by the Trade Unions, almost as a pressure group rather than a political party - so it’s not unreasonable that they have a major input into the Labour Party. Given that very few private sector workers are now in trade unions, I should think that they’re rather more representative of Labour voters than they were a generation ago.
“I’m certainly better known in the blogging ‘community’ as a whole.”
Obviously not by woody662
[24] Well, that’s why I chose a nom-de-blog. May I suggest that one of the Peters invites the other to e-mail him so that they can sort this out amicably?
Peter, the point is that the members of public sector unions get a third of votes in the Labour leadership election, essentially because their employers give Labour money. Does anyone want to speculate on how an equivalent arrangement whereby HSBC and Shell employees got a third of votes in the Tory leadership election in return for their companies bankrolling the Conservative Party would be received?
the trade union input is vital too. can anyone tell me exactly how many cooks, cleaners, machine fitters, truck drivers, tube ticket sellers, firemen, roadsweepers or bag handlers have a say in the tory party or liberal party? not many i’ll wager. the union movement also provides assistance to people from working class backgrounds to get into parliament - although admittedly fewer than in the past. how many mps from a “working class” job are sitting in the Commons outside the labour party?
eric, I doubt people with the sort of professions you list have a serious impact on any party.
yes they do. they are members and they do have an input. i’m speaking from experience. many constituency labour party’s are overwhelmingly ‘working class’.
If you say so - how recent is your experience, though? And are you one of those left-wing people who considers every profession from teacher to doctor to professor to be working class?
Very few of the Parliamentary Labour Party are these days. And I’d be willing to bet that few party members are working class people who work in the private sector these days either.
John Prescott? And remember the continual class-inflected Tory sniping at him - to say nothing of the attitude towards Michael Martin.
[31] Peter wrote members of public sector unions get a third of votes in the Labour leadership election, essentially because their employers give Labour money
I don’t follow. The employer pays the employee who chooses to join a TU and also chooses to pay the “political contribution.” Or have I missed something?
no, i don’t. i’ve been a labour party member since i was 18. one of the CLPs i was most active in was made up of many skilled manual workers, council workers and a former binman.
Or have I missed something?
Not really. I meant to say union members get a third of the votes because their union leader gives Labour money.
Just a damm well sec there Bally, come to Bury North working class and Middle class, same in Bury North and Bolton South east and Bolton North east. infact one of Bury Norths members is a barmaid of 40yrs experience, I grew up in a smalll two room terrace sharing a room with my sister and i’m 23, 24 on Sunday, That Barmaid gave a coat to Cheerie Booth when her dad was on strike and attended a benefit gig at the met bar for i=nim in the 60’s and you have the audacity to sneer at us.
OH and check the constituncy’s of Fareham and Gosport There working class and proud to be tory
sorry should read Bury South first, then Bury North
41 S Penketh. Aye ekky thump, we lived in shoe box at end of garden, and lived of weeds eight days a week, were thrashed to an inch of our lives by landlord and were thankful for it ! …. and that was in Mayfair !
i’m not sneering at anyone, read what i said. i just don’t really see many working class people having much of a say over tory policy or much representation on tory benches.
sorry Jack W, realised it sounded a bit Monty Pythan, Just got very annoyed by Bally’s ignorant comments and his inverted snobbery, I’ve got members in my party who are very working class and are tory, one in Bolton south east was a sailor, rating, and is a die hard blue
[40] TUs vote on whether or not to affiliate to the Labour Party. They can and do change their minds - the example of the FBU has already been given. There are strict rules about it, and I think you are being “okkud” as we said where I was brought up
Anyway, it cuts both ways - when I was a Labour Party member (1972-1991) I was also in NALGO (as it then was) whose constitution prevented it from affiliating to a political party (and whose General Secretaries were all Tories until the 1970s).
If you believe that successive Tory governments made a mistake in failing to outlaw TU affiliations to political parties, now would be an excellent time to say so
45 S Penketh. Fear not, I’m still recovering from my St.Andrews “long lunch” yesterday, that lasted to 3.30 this morning with a friend playing the pipes near Kingsbourne Green !!
Having said that, there’s always been a significant strand of working class urban Tories - the Alf Garnett syndrome - although today very largely without the xenophobic streak, I suppose we’d more appropiately call them the aspirant and patriotic right wing C2’s. Although I dislike these sub divisions.
DTI survey of trade union membership 2004: http://www.dti.gov.uk/er/emar/tradeunion_membership2004.pdf
This indicates that 17.2% of private sector employees are trade union members compared with 58.8% of public sector workers. However this makes no distinction between Labour party affiliates and non-affiliates, and as has been noted most of the professional public sector unions - teachers, nurses, senior civil servants etc are not affiliated to the Labour Party.
36. According to Butler and Kavanagh’s British General Election of 2005 35 Labour MPs worked in manual occupations, compared with 2 Tories and 1 Lib Dem.
43. lol Jack. I remember seeinf that sketch.
44. Although you may be have a point with proportion, I don’t think you can say that you don’t stand a chance in the Tory party if you’re working class. John major and Micheal Howard came from relatively poor backgrounds. You might have heard that David Davis was bought up on a council estate. My conservative parliamentry spokesman used to be a miner.
In my local party, the management commitee has a factory worker, a builder, a lorry driver and a former railway worker on it. They Tory party is a broad church but we must look at ways of making our parliamentry party more representative. I’ll let you know when my article on that appears on conservative home.
calm down - i wasn’t sneering because i am one of them and so is my family! without getting too monty python. my point is how many Tories are from that background, not how many working class support the Tories. can i make it any clearer?
Labour already gives a membership discount to union members who join the party as individuals. Why not have just that as the means of union representation, rather than the fancy franchise of a whole trade union section in the electoral college?
because the trade unions formed the labour party?
The class composition of the Labour party is discussed in this Guardian report of an ICM survey.
52 - I thought “for the many, not the few” was more the fashion these days.
Average age of Conservative Party members is 59, Liberal Democrats is 57 and Labour members is 54.
Interesting. Not such a huge age disparity for the Tories after all (percentages over/under different ages has a bigger disparity, however).
(Data from my point 55 is from Lorcan’s link at 53 above)
51. For what it’s worth, a large chunk of my family are working class Tories, even some of the former miners. More concretely, the ICM final 2005 election poll showed Tories at 32% among C2s, 28% DEs - behind Labour but well up on 2001 and pretty respectable shares for a party ‘Eric’ apparently thinks is supported only by the rich.
A statistic that caught my eye from the election was that Labour had a lead of ~45% amongst those who lived in social housing, getting almost 7/10 of votes cast in that group.
Activists especially in the big cities tend to be middle class, less so elsewhere, and in the heartlands still overwhelmingly union (or former union) based.
54 book value. I think you’ll find it’s :
Labour : For the many not the few.
Tories : Thanks God for the Nanny, phew !!
Lib Dems : Orange Bookists - A feud too many.
“Peter, the point is that the members of public sector unions get a third of votes in the Labour leadership election, essentially because their employers give Labour money. Does anyone want to speculate on how an equivalent arrangement whereby HSBC and Shell employees got a third of votes in the Tory leadership election in return for their companies bankrolling the Conservative Party would be received?”
Innocent has dealt with the first sentence. My point was that business has had a big influence on policies. I was thinking of Tarmac rather than HSBC - there were some good articles in the FT on this back in 1996.
Interestingly, Fred, one particularly objectionable Conservative contributor to another website referred to working class Conservatives as “the redneck vote”. The old-fashioned snobbery has not completely disappeared, particularly when combined with a self-righteous hatred for people whose beliefs are less “enlightened” than ones own.
eric doesn’t think that fred if you can be bothered to read back. for the last time i was talking about tory mps from working class backgrounds.
61. Thanks for that Sean - I’m sure such snobbery does persist here and there, but it does among Labour members too. In my expereince, there are plenty of posh metropolitan Labour types who have nothing but contempt for the working class people they purport to represent.
Mine, too, Fred.
Bally
In your previous posts yu do not say anything about MPs but went on about your local party commitee structure. Well mines made up of a roofer (president) a middle class director (chairman), a single mum (treasuror) a oap with only a state pension as our womens officer, a lady whos husband is a printer (secretary) oh one candidate works as abuilder and another member is a 19yr black lad who lives in a council estate. Top Trumps
65. That sounds very like my commitee as I mentioned earlier. Where abouts are you based?
Keep up Woody! Even a lib dem like me knows that Stuart is from Bury!
66
Bury South, Bury North is similar too. Bolton South East is very working class, bloody gorgeous tory club in Little lever though
Well hello Peter
From eric’s list of professions, I think there is one Conservative MP (Mike Penning used to be a full time fireman), other than that it depends what you define as working class and I’m not getting into that discussion.
The House of Commons Library’s figures (http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/notes/snsg-01528.pdf) have 2 Conservative MPs classed as former manual workers, including one miner (no idea who this is). 1 Lib Dem MP is classed as a former manual worker, and 35 Labour MPs are.
Anthony - the former miner will be the West Derbyshire MP I think.ç
70. The former miner is Patrick McLoughlin.
67. I was wondering which Bury.
72. Yes Patrick McLoughlin was a strike breaking miner. Word is he will be made Chief Whip under Cameron. He’s taking a few of us on a tour round Parliament on Tuesday.
Thank you very much! I was trawling through MPs biographies searching for him but gave up.
OK - Working class tories exist. But historically the story of many of the most successful is something like this - clever working class boy attends grammar school, realises that in Britain if you want power, wealth, influence you need an entry into the establishment. So, puts in effort to get to Oxbridge, take elecution lessons, join the Tory party and starts to leave it all behind. There are then others who see the nature of Britain - and try to change the conditions for pwerless people like those they have grown up with - John Prescott, David Blunkett et al. Now, for all their faults - I find the second group rather more admirable than the first. We live in a better country now, a land that does not automatically regard as worthless anyone who didn’t go to a public school because of decades of hard work and slefless sacrifice by many thousands of trade unionists and Labour party members.
Woody662
Bury South i’m the candidate for Radcliffe North, (North of Manchester)
75. That will be 2 jags Prescott with his five houses and David Blunkett the share wheeler dealer and member of Annabels.
76. Thanks. We have a few of northern tories on here now.
John B
what a load of self congratulatory bunkom, I suppose we should be thanking them for school standards being dropped, for a bigger cap betwwen rich and poor is that why Labour are trying half baked tory Ideas that were lampooned by T.Blair esq only as recenttly as 97 and 2001
77. Isn’t it interesting that 2 jags is the issue with Prescott (but never was with say Hesletine)?
75. Aha so now all working class Tories are class traitors as well! how dare they rise without their class with them, as Anthony Crosland (posh) might have said. Having first denied the existence of these people, you now spit old fashioned marxist trash at them.
Hesletine wasn’t contradictory about it though, I bit like meacher going on about tory scum having more than one house and yet having four himself, that holier than though attiitude may have something to do with it John
In 2004 the 22 trade unions affiliated to the Labour Party did so on the basis of the following numbers:
UNISON 570,000
Amicus 535,100
GMB 400,000
TGWU 400,000
USDAW 302,464
CWU 215,000
GPMU 66,000
UCATT 51,000
ISTC 45,100
TSSA 27,338
FBU 20,000
CATU 15,500
ASLEF 15,500
KFAT 12,471
MU 10,500
BECTU 8,000
BFAWU 5,100
NUM 5,100
RMT 5,100
NUDAGO 600
NACODS 450
GULO 218
These numbers aren’t necessarily the same as the number of members who pay the political levy, but probably give a good indication. Since this list was published the FBU has disaffiliated and the RMT was expelled for supporting the Scottish Socialist Party.
The Iron and Steel Trades Confederation (ISTC) and the National Union of Knitwear, Footwear & Apparel Trades (KFAT) merged in 2004 to form ‘Community’. Also in 2004 the GPMU merged with Amicus.
GULO is the General Union of Loom Overlookers.
how dare labour politicians be financially successful! they should give all their money to charity and live in a cardboard box!
79 John B. Yes, but Tarzan was not an “old school” Tory. Too much the arriviste … Indeed the Henley Parvenu had to buy his own furniture !!
79,83. It’s the do as I say and not as I do philosophy I have a problem with. Prescott telling people to stop the short car journeys when him and his Mrs go 200 yards in a car to stop her barnet going out of place (has she never heard of a hat)
83. While we’re on Prescott, do you consider it acceptable that a minister in charge of filling the housing gap, keeps a union flat when he has 4 other homes?
Hesletine wasn’t contradictory about it though, I bit like meacher going on about tory scum having more than one house and yet having four himself, that holier than though attiitude may have something to do with it John
how very strange posted again, and why must prescot destroy thousand of perfectly good victorian town houses, and give the people in them a smaller than market price for them, for a scheme derided by everyone. The Cabin boy (sorry as he can’t navigate by the stars and he can’t lay an anchor he is a Cabin boy in my eyes and every other sailor’s [most of them ratings and not officers] eyes. seems to destroy any good working class community he touches
83. In short I don’t really care. Just as while I know Cameron is very wealthy, I’m not interested in the details. The point that you all somewhat obtusely - if may say so - are ignoring - is that these questions are always asked about wealthy Labour ministers of working class origin - and hardly ever of the truly rich.
85/86 woody. Have to disagree there woody. A husband should never interfere with the good womans barnet, especially if she’s just spent £100 at the barbers !! …. it would have been more than Prezza’s life was worth to deny her the motor, even if was for just 10 yards, let alone round the block !
Sorry to pick up a previosu post - but the General Union of Loom Overlookers has 218 members? I wouldn’t have thought there were that many Looms left that needed overlooking…
John B
Hardly ever, Socialists have been discussing and deriding (the Daily Mirror, The Guardian, Morning Star and The Socialist worker) have been going on about tory toffs for years, not our fault if no one in the country buys these rags.
91 Lennon. Where do you think us Scottish Aristos get our suits from !! …. all that fine wool and tweed !!
93 -
- Fair point…
Hi Stuart. I would normally feel obliged to join in on the side of JohnB (though he’s managing very well on his own) but as this subject seems to be making you particularly angry and I’m rooting for you in Bury North I think I’ll keep quiet. Suprised to see you running down Prescott though. Weren’t you both sailors?
95. Saddam and Bush were both Presidents. Not sure they would have much good to say about each other. Bit of flawed logic there Roger.
Hello Roger nice to hear from you.
I actullay believe everyone gets into politics to make live better for their fellow countrymen. Although I have to say i do hate when people like John and Bally come up with obtuse commments that are easily disproved. Then they pontificate why the larger electorate doesn’t vote anymore.
On the subject of Prescot, every sailor I know (rating and officer)does not think he is a sailor, as he can not navigate, act as a deck hand, man a launch, act on the anchor party, or any other activities that a sailor partakes in. His duties were literally serving G&t’s in short he was a cabin Boy not a sailor. Sorry but to us sailors it would be like a Royal Engineer claimiing to be in the SAS.
I don’t think you appreciate solidarity Woody. I imagine even someone like Bush (if he had a brain) might feel a twinge of ‘there but for fortune….’
Oh, good game! My local Tory Exective is made up of solictitor, teacher, travelling salesman, housewife, call-centre operator, retired shop worker and one ex-driver now retired on health grounds. How many points is that worth?!?
95 Jolly Roger. You’ll be keel hauled for that me hearty. Admiral Penketh is the very model of a modern Navy general … as oppossed to the nations very own Captain Pugwash of Hull.
BTW. Scottish Tories - Piss poor value for Money Shock !!
The Scottish Tories spent £1.3Million to elect their single MP - David “Muchdull” in Dumfries. Other party costs per Scottish MP :
SNP : £32K
Lib Dems : £39K
Labour : £40K
Con : £1.3M !!
Just out of curisity if someone is interested, here’s the list of Labout MPs and the trade unions of which they are members:
http://www.l-r-c.org.uk/resources/unionmps.asp#Equity
“Captain Pugwash of Hull.”
Don’t you mean Roger the Cabin Boy?
102 Sean. Tut tut, a large wooden spoon for you there Sean !!
101. I don’t know where you find these sites from Andrea.
104 - agreed. Andrea - how do you know so much?
100 - It’s not Dumfries its Dumfriesshire, Clydedale and Tweeddale the town isn’t in it! A lovely part of the world it is too! Well worth the money.
106 Max. Apologies ! Shamefully I couldn’t be bothered to type it in full !! Having said that you didn’t get much bang for your buck did you. I think at the next GE, spend half on the campaign and the other half on a members giant piss up round the the Spey Valley !! … never would a drowning of sorrows be more looked forward to !! …… I think I’d make a rather fine Chairman of the Scottish Tories …. it’d never be dull …. or sober !!
101 - Surely there’s a place in Equity for Tony Blair?
108 - Wouldn’t have thought that Glenda would like to have something in common with him though…
107 - It was certainly disapointing but we weren’t a million miles away in a couple of other seats. Still 2007 to look forward to - a quick update on that which I know you’ll appreciate Jack - Labour not to confident about regaining either South (where they have stopped leafleting since May unlike the Libs) or Pentlands (whether D Mc stands again or not) in Edinburgh and worried about Central too! Lord James (the only real toff in the parliament) is standing down at the age of 63 as is his old nemesis Donald Gorrie. And Murdo Fraser got knocked back for the Perth nomination by Liz Smith who came within 48 votes of winning Perth (on the old boundaries) in 2001 so will run in North Tayside again. Everyone is starting to get their candidates in place so the electioneering should start pretty soon.
Are there any statistics on big spending in individual seats that led to particularly bad performances? Or low spenders that did well?
And for completness my vote in the Tory Leadership went off today and the good news (for Mr Cameron) is that I voted for David Cameron. Hurrah, it’s only taken me 3 three months to come to a decision.
112. Hope it gets there on time; when’s the deadline?
104/105. It has previously been suggested that Andrea should work as a researcher. If anyone would like him for this role I will happily abduct the man for a reasonable fee, and bring him to your organisation via EasyJet.
I need some research doing actually. Andrea would be just the person to find my stats.
111 - Is there not a cap on how mutch you can spend in each constituency?
Tell that to Lord Ashcroft…
116, only during the campaign proper. There’s no limit outside of the campaign.
110-How many constituency MPs do the Tories hope to get in Scotland in 2007. Unfortuantely for them, one consituency MP seems to cancel a list MP so total change at Holyrood is likely to be very similar.
114 - Isn’t it called just being quick off the mark with searching on google. If anybody has shared offices with people like that who google everything anybody says or asks you will know how annoying people like Andrea are!
104/105. It’s the website of the Labour Representation Commetee. A left wing organization chaired by John McDonnell. His press realises are usually so apocalyptic and sometimes funny because it talks about Labour as it’s not his party (he refers to the government only as “new labour”).
114. Julian, should I worry?
120. sorry to disappoint you but I didn’t get that list googling. I usually look at that site regularly and so I knew they had that list. Sorry if you find me annoying.
Max, today’s Question Time could interest you. The guests are by Margaret Hodge, Annabel Goldie, Nicola Sturgeon, Tom Shakespeare (a bioethicist) and A A Gill of The Sunday Times
121 Andrea. More like should Julian worry !!
110 Max. It looks like Edinburgh might become a Lib Dem fiefdom.
Does Lord James not use his Selkirk Earldom or like David Steel, does he prefer to use a lesser title in Parliament.
116 - There is indeed and that would make figures hard to come by. However, the limit is easily circumvented (and all parties do it) because it does not take account of spending before the campaign “proper” (as if March 2005 wasn’t part of the campaign proper) and spending on the “national” campaign (so a Michael Howard letter in Sutton not specifically saying “vote for Rik” would have been outside the limit even though it is very obviously specific to the seat).
As Peter says, Ashcroft funding proves the point that the cap is a bit of a farce - North Norfolk is a good example of a spectacularly unsuccessful Ashcroft seat (and a big spender quite apart from the Ashcroft money, I suspect). As for successful low spenders, presumably winners in ultra-safe seats where there is no serious campaign nominally take the prize, but in terms of swing I suppose some of the surprisingly big inner-city swings from Labour this year and possibly the SNP gain in the Western Isles may well qualify.
Lynne Featherstone quite likely outspent any other candidate, I should think.
I think the cap on spending per constituency is actually absurdly low.
124.” but in terms of swing I suppose some of the surprisingly big inner-city swings from Labour this year and possibly the SNP gain in the Western Isles may well qualify. ”
or maybe Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent.
122. Not that dreadful Hodge woman. How shes still in politics, I’ll never know.
123 I’d forgotten Lord James disclaimed the Earldom of Selkirk in 1997 to help John Major’s tiny majority. It’s old age getting to me
121.”His press realises ”
ops, it should be “press releases”
123. Jack, I don’t know why you’ve a such bad opinion of me
129 Andrea. Experience
130. Jack, so should I assume your experience is very bad?
The
I just googled “Roger the Cabin Boy” and found this;
“Captain Pugwash cartoon, which originally ran on the BBC between 1958 and 1967, is widely believed to have featured characters with risqué maritime names such as Master Bates, Seaman Staines, and Roger the Cabin Boy.”
Who said the BBC were stuffy!
100-Jack Duckworth of Hull proves that you can get to the top irrespective of qualifications,abilty or language skills and be given a budget of billions to squander as you see fit.
133 john. That’s democracy for you !!
132 - Roger - this is an urban myth. The cabin boy in Captain Pugwash is called Tom, and the other two characters were also called something much more innocuous. ‘Pugwash’, too, I believe was in those days a wholly innocent term. If - as is commonly believed - it is a description of a rather lewd act, I think it only aquired this definition after the event. I think all this is the result of the routine of some stand-up comedian in the mid-nineties (possibly from the Mary Whitehouse experience) who must now be feeling pretty pleased with himself.
Pugwash is also the name of a small town on the north coast of Nova Scotia.
Bally Eric I am another Tory from a Midlands backstreet shoe box, mother a single parent and a shop steward in a factory, me a secondary modern boy. The Labour MP, who was a member of the noble Paget clan and a real toff, sneered at my circumstances and provided, John B, the second best (and reasonably successful) motivation to ‘make it’ I ever had.
70.”The House of Commons Library’s figures (http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/notes/snsg-01528.pdf) have 2 Conservative MPs classed as former manual workers, including one miner (no idea who this is). 1 Lib Dem MP is classed as a former manual worker, and 35 Labour MPs are. ”
are those stats made asking MPs what they did before being elected their first time, right? So should Dennis Skinner answer “miner” (what he did before his election) or “politician” (what he has done in the last 30 years) ?
What has Glenda answered? Actress is not an option. I coul guess she answered politician. I couldn’t find another suitable option.
137. They are basd on the MP’s main occupation before election, so Skinner is almost certainly classified as a miner. I expect that Glenda Jackson would be under some catch-all category such as ‘Miscellaneous white-collar’.
138. Lorcan, are actors considered “white-collar”?
139. In this case, yes: http://www.npg.org.uk/live/search/portrait.asp?LinkID=mp06326&rNo=5&role=sit
140. Lorcan, ok, but I prefer her in those photos:
http://members.fortunecity.com/johnrobinsonj1/scansj/jackson/GLENDA%20JACKSONff.jpg
http://www3.newberry.org/elizabeth/exhibit/images/6.28.jpg
137 Andrea, the Conservative miner is Patrick McLoughlin, West Derbyshire (six years at Litteton Colliery, Cannock).
142 - Oh, sorry, I scrolled from the bottom and didn’t see that this question had occurred and been answered further up.
142. Thanks Robert Waller. Somobody suggested him earlier.
Are you busy those days? Your knowledge is missed here (at least by me).
Btw, any interesting by-elections today? I see that there’re 2 by-elections in Thurrock: a Lab ward and a Tory ward (candidate disqualified due to non-attendance)
110. Presumably the Scottish Tories will be targetting West Renfrewshire in 2007 since Annabel Goldie is now their leader?
Also Bruce McFee, the SNP list MSP who stood there last time is quitting Holyrood.
JackW, as a fellow Jacobite, I take it you recognise Franz Bonaventura Adalbert Maria von Wittelsbach as King Francis II, and the rightful king of these islands.
135, so much of an urban myth that the author of “Captain Pugwash” successfully sued the Guardian for libel when they printed the story as fact a few years ago. It’s the sort of story that most of us would dearly love to be true - but sadly it isn’t.
146 Fergus. Well the problem with the Duke of Bavaria is that a direct line ancestor - Maria Beatrice of Savoy, married her uncle illegal in common law in Scotland and Engalnd. Thus the next in line would be the 88 year old Infanta Alicia, the Duchess of Calabria - heir also to the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies.
However there is a major difficulty with both these candidates because are not of liegance of the monarch - the Common law, whereby heirs must be naturalized and not aliens. This is why the usurper Anne had to naturalise the Hanovarians in the “Act” of Settlement. But this Act is not valid to Jacobites as James III and VIII was King. On this line the legitimist heir is ironically the son of George III … that is George IV or indeed as we might call him George I. And of course the legitimate heir thus is the de Jure and de Facto Elizabeth II of England and I of Scotland !!
However some regard James I and VI as not in liegance to the English crown as a Scot, so the heir to the English crown would be the 14th Earl of Loudoun, who hilariously is an Australian republican
which leaves the Scottish Crown to the present Elizabeth I .
Clear as mud !!! …. what is your view?
144, thanks very much for your kind words, Andrea.
With so many opinions here, who needs knowledge ?!
Yes, I have and wish to put work first, particularly in term time.
148.”Maria Beatrice of Savoy, married her uncle illegal in common law in Scotland and Engalnd. Thus the next in line would be the 88 year old Infanta Alicia, the Duchess of Calabria - heir also to the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies.”
Jack, all these Italian women…..
Btw, QT has Nicola Sturgeon instead of a Libdem because they’re in Scotland tonight. So considering they’re in Scotland, shoudln’t they have dumped the tories?
(just teasing tory’s posters )
148 - Jack - the great thing about the British constitution is that basically, in extremis, we can change the rules - so faced with some nutter like James II (yes, yes, VII of Scotland) or that little ponce Bonnie Prince Charlie
we can import someone from the continent who might be more prepared to uphold the principles of liberty and less likely to revert to Catholic absolutism.
150 - I seem to remember a QT from Glasgow once with a rightish Labour MP, a Lib Dem and an SNP person - they were all competing to see who could be more just-left-of-centre than the others. It was very dull indeed.
151 Cookied aka Duke of Cumberland. Clearly the rantings of the Downing Street Press Office.
QT - very worthy but dull as ditchwater so far.
154. Jack, why weren’t you were there to represent your lands?
154. Turned off. Very boring. Might tune in the This Week so see if Andrew Neil winds Portillo up about his recent paper appearances.
156. Woody, how disappointing Portillo’s recent scandal…they’ve slept together only once, but they talk everyday!
155 Andrea. Why indeed.
BTW Andrea, you’d have enjoyed last nights episode of the BBC’s period classical drama - Rome. One scene had a scene of a full frontal male slave - rather too well endowed I thought
… Mrs Jack W looked at me whistfully 
158. As long as see didn’t say ‘If only’ Jack.
158. That series will come to my screen too in the following months, but sadly I think they’ll cut some too sexual scenes.
Btw, why is Margheret Hodge representing Labour in a QT held in Scotland? Couldn’t they find a Scottish Labourite? It shouldn’t be difficult.
159 woody. She said nothing !! Although I fear she may have earmarked a trip to the St. Albans slave market in the morning !
160 Andrea. You poor fellow ! Although with your skills I’m sure you’ll be able to find the “member” on the net somewhere !!
161. JAck, I’ve already seen it……. and I don’t think it’s real.
162 Andrea. Why am I not surprised.
All this talk of members is quite a shock to my otherwise prying Hanovarian eyes.
144. Re Thurrock’s local by-elections. Lab held a ward with an increased majority and gained the second one from the tories.
http://www.thisisessex.co.uk/essex/thurrock/news/NEWS0.html
164. Bastards.
166. AHM, why are you insulting yourself? Are you developping a split personality?
Oh dear, it does look that way doesn’t it? I was actually reacting to the news of the Labour council byelection win at Thurrock.
166 AHM. That’s no way to talk of your defeated Tory candidates.
Good quote from the local Tory supremeo:
” …. these results come at a good time for us …”
:lol:
168. AHM, a true British gentleman (like you) wouldn’t react in that way. Remember the peerage……
170. Ah yes! The peerage! It’s alright, I’m still breathing and I have no criminal record. I still qualify!