Why won\’t 24% of Labour supporters back Gordon?
December 17th, 2005-
Is it because only they think he’s doing worse on the economy?
While the big focus in the past few days has been on the Lib Dems the major leadership issue in UK politics is on Labour because who is chosen to succeed Tony Blair will almost certainly become Prime Minister. Charles Kennedy’s future 
has almost no impact on that one way or the other.
The full data-set from Populus ’s December Times poll that had Cameron’s Tories beating Brown’s Labour by five points has just been made available and it is fascinating looking at the detail to examine current voter dynamics.
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It might be a polling quirk and you have to tread carefully when looking at subsets of data in opinion polls but it appears that only 76% of those saying they are Labour supporters would definitely back the party if the Chancellor was up against Cameron.
Of the rest 5% said they would vote Tory and 5% Lib Dem with 4% saying they would not vote. The “don’t know” proportion was 9%.
By contrast total of 91% of Tory supporters would go with their party and the “seepage” from the Tories to Labour was just 1% with the “don’t know” figure at 4%. The only boost for the Chancellor was that 5% of Lib Dem supporters would switch to supporting Brown’s Labour.
Later questions on the economy provide something of an answer. Only 37% of Labour supporters agreed with the statement that “Britain ’s economy is doing well - largely because of Gordon Brown’s policies & decisions”. Just twelve months ago the figure was 64%.
Yet Lib Dem supporters seem to be viewing Brown’s performance in a totally different way. A total of 31% agreed with the statement - an increase of 12% on a year ago. Even Tories in the survey were more likely to agree on Brown’s contribution compared with December 2004.
So there has been a big fall in confidence on his management of the economy amongst Labour voters while Tory and Lib Dems think he is doing better.
In the betting the best price on Brown succeeding Blair is 0.49/1.
Mike Smithson
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re: GB price - seems to have stuck at 1.5 or just under, Mike?
Re 1. I laid Brown at 1.35/1.36 before the negative polls and could close off my bets now at a nice profit. This week the Brown price has moved out to about the 1.5 mark. It will stay about there until something else happens.
Interesting that such a substantial number of LAbour voters say that they would switch to the Lib Dems at a moment that would not seem the best for getting such a response.
But I am always suspicious of these “How would you vote if x changed” questions. The implication is that the information is something that ought to make you change your mind, and that the right answer is to name another party (no matter what you said the first time).
Perhaps a section of Labour voters follow the financial press closely. After all there have been other criticisms from weighty sources like this before and they are increasing.
The Dour One might fiddle his figures outrageously and change the shape of the pitch at will but it doesn’t fool the hard men.
Voters respond not to economic statistics but to the pound in their pocket. This undid Major’s government and may yet dish Brown’s chances. Treasury economists may believe we are all prospering but it only benefits the government electorally if we can spend money on things that make us feel better. Money spent on credit card repayments or petrol duty (or even higher prices for cigarettes) may as well go on more income tax for all the happiness it induces.
5 John L Very true. But I wonder how many of those Labour supporters are the ones that Nulab gained who in previous times may have been Tory voters and are money wise.
I smell trouble for the DO if they are blue tinted temporary Labour voters and they understand what the IMF means and what it means for the taxpayer when the IMF senior economist called on Mr Brown to make “modest and gradual” reductions in spending, or increases in taxes, to boost the public coffers by around £11billion a year.
4.”The Dour One ”
what about a new pb.com nickname for Cameron too?
Maybe something like “empty” Dave?
So empty that no-one know what he wants.
7.More seriously, those figures underlined by Mike Smithson are very interesting. I couldn’t find an explanation: maybe people were already on an “election mind” and this prompted Lab supporters to back their chancellor even if they disagreed and other parties supporters to disagree with him even if they agreed.
re 7. I loved Guido’s nick-name of “Basher” for David Davis. It fitted the bill brilliantly.
9. yes, it was good. Like “Dour one” fits well with Brown’s public personality (even if I read, he’s different with his friends).
Max will be pleased, as the Conservatives have just taken control of South Ayrshire Council, their first Scottish council since 1995. Following the resignation of one Labour councillor, they called a special meeting of the council to take control. Even if Labour regains this seat in the by-election, the Conservatives will still control on the Convenor’s casting vote.
There’s a very good leader in the Times about David Cameron, which I endorse whole-heartedly.
6 - I suspect pensions may have more effect than the IMF. People may not be keen on GB (or anyone else) making them work an extra couple of years.
Though the IMF report is critical, if it did become a campaign issue then I’ve no doubt other reports could be found to counter it. We saw this sort of thing in 1992 when Conservative attacks on John Smith’s tax policy (”double whammy”)were negated by reports showing most people would not be hit, at least at the beginning. It is only when the idiots running Labour’s campaign stopped campaigning a week early so letting the Tories have a free run in the last couple of days that the lead changed.
A lesson apparently lost on the LibDems last time when they seemed to be relying on Charles Kennedy to memorise local income tax rates for every combination of incomes in every constituency in order to defend their proposals.
People are hardly likely to desert GB as leader over the economy unless they think he is a good Chancellor!
Will the DO be upset at Blair handing over £1billion a year more to the EU out of his budget I wonder?
Woody I am so frustrated by this deal by Blair. Whatever way he spins this he has gone back on his promise about not negotiating the rebate. Even if you think the rebate is plain wrong - most people will admit that from interesting starting points both Blair and Chirac have played strategies and Blair has lost.
To give away 7bn pounds and get the promise of a review is abysmal negotiating.
Blair is weak. Period.
re 14. I thought that IAOSOG (“I’m an ordinary sort of guy”)did well this morning defending his actions on the EU on the Today programme. IAOSOG is a really class act.
17. A class act in making failure look like success.
15-James M
Does the so called deal (probably give away is a more accurate description) have to be approved by the UK parliament?
17. Is IAOSOG Blair?
19 - No - spoke to a Barrister on this - this is an international treaty, as opposed to legislation - as such the Prime Minister has Executive powers on this
So no discussion with Cabinet, no ratification in the Houses, just a straight sign and give away….
and I agree with the above - no matter how it is dressed up, this is a poor negotiation by Blair. Even if France doespay more, it gets huge rebates through the CAP and other areas - they still receive back more per capita than we do. He gave away more money and comes home weakened (Hague’s spinning of a Churchill classic will be quoted for years to come on this), whilst jacques can go home, have a happy christmas with happy farmers, knowing he finally screwed us in revenge for Iraq and the Olympics (oooh, controvesial!)…. we all know what a review means:
Chirac: “OK, so we are reviewing the CAP”
French Farmers: “Looks fine to us as it is”
Chirac: “OK, it’s reviewed, we kept our promise…”
I can see Spain having problems over this - the Socialists are leading a dogs dinner out there - they pretty much only won because of 5/5 Madrid (harsh to say it, but true), and they are failing with all legislature in their home land - I wonder if this has been done to try and make some friends in Europe, but it is pretty much viewed that the next election will end up being a landslide for the Popular Party unless something short of miraculous happens for the crrent Government
DC: Sir Toby Jug? David Silverspoon?
“Modern” Conservatives: The Eton Rifles?
Wody/James M: I don´t think it is a very good deal either - in fact I think it would have been better to get a deal under Juncker in June. But the rebate issue is not quite as clear cut as you think. Enlargement effectively led to some windfall gains on the rebate, and this created scope for negotiation. The original formula for the rebate now applies to a budget that looks very different from when Sir Ian Gilmour obtained it for the UK.
Blair’s big disaster this Presidency was to start with grand words on the CAP and then fail to come up with a single proposal to reform it.
re 19/21 - oh, the only option would be a challenge to the European Government via the ECJ a la M&S if Taxes go up - but not on the basis that taxes went up because the govt of the day gave up teh rebate - if that was the basis of challenge, the ECJ will defend their leislation and treaties and block the case, but if the basis is on competition and fairness in Europe (so not mentioning the offending treaty even though it is the reason), then it could stand a chance
re 20. Andrea - Yes. His first big crisis after winning power in 1997 was the Bernie Ecclestone donation/tobacco sponsorship link. IAOSOG’s response on being pressed was “I’m an ordinary sort of guy” and this has sort of stuck. Then everything was on his side and he got away with it. Now things might be different.
For a lawyer, Blair is a remarkably poor negotiator.
23 - oh dear, milky…
25 - lol!
22 - the irony came from one of the continental journos in the press conference in the early hours - he asked Blair if, after past presidencies and their development of the EU project, how does he feel that he will be remembered as the man who nearly brought it all crashing down, having got no actual development of Europe during his 6 months….
He wanted a legacy. He has one, in that he has alienated a large amount of the Eastern Bloc, he has revived the Franco-German axis, which had been battered, bruised and cowled, he will be generally loathed in Europe by other leaders, and there is a distinct possibility that he may have just laid the road for the UK to withdraw from the EU within 10 years, and for the EU projct to collapse within 20 years as opposed to the 30 - 50 that it was trundling towards…
That may well be his legacy - the complete opposite of what he wanted, and so he will end up being remembered solely for this along with being the First Labour PM to get 3 terms, and for taking us to Iraq… hardly the legacy he wanted
25. Anyone know if he won any cases when he was a lawyer? I can imagine the him leading the prosecution. ‘Well, you know, I think we have to accept that there is a chance that the accused wasn’t at the scene of the crime’
I think that Blair will be remembered as a brilliant politician and a poor statesman.
24. Thanks.
21. Milkybar Kid, the last time I checked the socialists were still leading the Popula Party in Spain. what’s your evidence it’ll be a landslide for them next time?
Well, if one my clients wanted me to instruct counsel, Woody, it certainly wouldn’t be him! You can’t get away in a courtroom with just being a good PR.
26 - that is the direct quote from my Barrister friend - she specialises in European Law, and is actually pro-european - thos were her exact words - so if you “re-tone” it away from how you may view my voice
Btw, I am not a Eurosceptic Tory, I just think the way the EU is currently put together is destined to failure and the only way to make Europe work is literally to knock down the current edifice and start from scratch, working with all Europe, not just the old Bloc (including us), and make it something that will work for everyone, instead of this Commission that has failed 90% of its audit how many times now?? I look after projects of less than £10m, but if one of those failed Audit by more than 5%, I would be fired. But we canno fire the Commission as they are unelected.
Wholesale reform of the EU to make it a fair and open organisation that benefits all nations who are parties to it cannot happen - it would be like turning a listing Supertanker. The best thing is to rip it up and start on a new page
A great idea from the Betfair forum. Why not Ken Clarke for Lib Dem leader. He’s pro-EU, anti-Iraq War and, by golly, he wants to be a party leader.
22 - I have no problem with the UK paying our way and helping out our new members - I supported enlargement.
What I do not like is countries like France sticking with CAP policies which harm so many people’s lives and how so many countries want to continue providing the beaucratic organisation more and more cash for fake promises of reform in the future.
Indeed my main disappointment is with Blair’s absymal negogiation skills. If he said to us - “Yes we will do anything to get a deal” - I may not have liked it, but he was honest. Instead he slowly changed his position and gained very little for his financial sacrifices - that is why people get fed up of politicians.
Any idea if Hague will have to respond to Straw on this deal in Parliament - would love to watch that!
Just read the sad news that John Spencer has died aged 58 from a heart attack.
He played the wonderful Leo McGarry in the West Wing - one of my favourite characters. He will be sorely missed by the programme.
30 - info on the ground from my brother - the general mood away from the major cities is one of contempt and hatred for the Socialists - the talk in the bars prior to last night in the bars was that they had only achieved 1 thing in the past 18 months, and that was removing the troops from Iraq.
The PPs biggest problem is “the Tory effect” a la 1997, in that they are hated by a large porition as incompetants, and there has ben a distinctly public amount of infighting and lack of party discipline. But because the Socialists are so unpopular as well (not invoking the Blair effect as I am sure it will forever be known), they know all it will take is proper positioning and pulling themselves together to win next time. If they can invoke this discipline in the next 9 months and focus their attacks on the Socialists for the following 9 months, then the election should be a pretty simple affair for them
But then again, these are the vaguaries of politics, and they could just as easily chuck it away…. ironic that people may end up voting for the lesser of two evils, as opposed to a flag they can get behind, if the PP do not sort their issues out…
24 - Wasn’t it IAPSSOAG? (I’m a pretty straight sort of a guy)?
apologies now, as well - need to go and collect my car from the dreaded MOT and make my bank balance lighter…. Sad news about John Spencer - fantastic actor, will be sorely missed on our screens in future… just wonder how they will play that one within the scripts now
37. Kind of guy I thought.
Re: Nicknames
I like “Rodney” for DC. as, if you remember from Only Fools and Horses, Trigger always used to call him “Dave”
32-Milkybar Kid
‘Btw, I am not a Eurosceptic Tory, I just think the way the EU is currently put together is destined to failure and the only way to make Europe work is literally to knock down the current edifice and start from scratch, working with all Europe, not just the old Bloc (including us), and make it something that will work for everyone, instead of this Commission that has failed 90% of its audit how many times now?? I look after projects of less than £10m, but if one of those failed Audit by more than 5%, I would be fired. But we canno fire the Commission as they are unelected.’
Don’t think you need to be a Eurosceptic to recognise how rotten this institution is,can you imagine a business or any other institution deciding to expand but without a budget,its just laughable.
33 - Mike, he mentioned the same thing (standing in our leadership election) on Any Questions last night.
Mark Oaten was on the same programme. You have to say he’s playing his leadership bid well. Good exposure. When it comes down to it, many of the party members will vote for a name they recognise. I note Chris Huhne has been popping up a lot recently too. That deep voice of his lends him something towards the “gravitas” stakes.
36. Milkybar Kid, I wouldn’t be so sure that PP will have an easy riding next time.
40. Good one that.
42. Although I’m a rather sad political anorak, I haven’t got a clue who Chris Huhne is? Can anyone fill me in?
44. He’s a former MEP who got elected in Westminster this year. He is also one of the contributors to the Orange Book
40 - How about “Bertie” as a nickname?
Cameron
Wooster
44 - http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/mr-christopher-huhne.html
46. Tabman, a bit “forced”
47. Impressive CV. Can’t run with a majority as think as though, surely?
Ken Clarke doesn’t want to be a party leader, he wants to be Prime Minister.
48 - Andrea, read Bertie’s CV
49 - Woody: conventionally yes; but OTOH it would do wonders for raising his profile and party leaders tend to get an electoral boost.
Bit cheeky woody - stealing my line!
52. Was a test to see if you read the betfair forum.
51. Tabman, I think the problem for MPs with little majority and becoming party leader is not the fear of losing the seat but that they usually need an high profile to win a leadership race and MPs with little majorities are sometimes too busy consolidating their majorities. Especially in the case of LD MPs: a Lab or Con MP could get a boost in his seat by joining his party’s frontbench, but it would more difficult for Libdems, because they aren’t always in the media.
lol
46. Regarding Mark Oaten, how about Hannibal as a nickname?
Oaten http://www.dvdfever.co.uk/reviews/hannibal.jpg
Lecter http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys
images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2002/07/18/mark_oaten128.jpg
54 - fair comment, but he has been on the radio a lot recently. I’m not sure how many of our members listen to Today, but I would think its quite a lot. He’s Treasury Spokesman.
Huhne also had a swing against him the Tories, which wouldn’t get him applauded…he didn’t win the seat as such and if he were party leader the Tories would aim at that seat with all their might, and Labour would probably let them have it in order to kill off the Libs, so I don’t think, even if he could win, they’d want to pick someone who’d have to concentrate so much on his own seat. Perhaps next time after he’s increased his majority…
56 - Woody - you’ll have to learn how to do html links properly
Although MO has clearly been under some stress recently!
59. Yes. You’ll have to explain it to me
I was watching Blair giving the news conference last night. The head of the european commission (who is from Portugal) seemed to me to be more fluent in English than Mr. Blair.
57.Tabman, your frontbench includes almost all your MPs!
I take your point about him being very present in the radio recently.
Woody - the problem is if you type the characters required it just does the link!
I’ll try:
Link name
‘link’ is in the form of http://blahblah.com, and you don’t have any spaces between the parantheses.
‘Link name’ is what appears on the screen
Labour MPs supporting the altenative education paper raised to 72 with the support of 14 more MPs from the Campaign Group (even if some from hard-left don’t agree very much with this one too, but they think it’s better than the original one)
63. I’ll bear it in mind for next time thanks.
re 37. Alex you are right. It was “I’m a pretty straight sort of a guy”. So a nick-name could be S-SOG
41 - John - I don’t think you have to be a Eurosceptic to realise how rotten it is and that it needs change. Eurosceptic to me defines someone who is against Europe per se. I have never been of that position. I guess my position formulated itself whilst at school, where you saw historical mistakes being made over and over again, and how forcing people together against their will led to all sorts of problems.
the Problem with Europe is the same as the one with the UN - fantastic idea in principle, but it has huge fundamental flaws that are now so ingrained into its very fabric that if you want both these facilities to opreate to their fullest potential, then they need to be ripped apart and stared afresh.
Lessons were not learned in either cases from past experiences (in regards UN especially, see League of Nations), or that throwing a hotchpotch of socially and traditionally different groupings together and then imposing from above tends not to ultimately work - they think Holy Roman Empire, but forget this was bound by one common religion - they have ended up with an Austro-Hungarian Empire situation of differing traditions and cultures that will eventually end up in revolt led by the middle classes.
This idea could have worked a la USA had it ben imposed 200 years ago and had 100+ to formulate and develop as that Federation did. But it could not and will not work in a post-WWII Europe, especially when you are taking in new members in 10 year tranches, thus allowing older members to get their feet under the table more and get “better deals”….
Andrea - re PP, you’re right, of course, it is not as simple as my initial sweepin statement suggests, and I apologise for the use of almost hyperbolic language (I blame lack of sleep!!!) But it will not take too much for the PP to regain control - it is just that the not much is the hardest thing of all, which is stopping the party combusting from within and aiming its focus and energies on the government of the day, which would make it a far more deadly beast
69. Milkybar Kid. yes, I agree that they’ve chances.
The funny thing is that some of advices you mentioned (”stopping the party combusting from within and aiming its focus and energies on the government of the day”) could have been usefull to the tories too. The problem is that they spent 8 years to accept them.
42-Tabman
‘Mark Oaten was on the same programme. You have to say he’s playing his leadership bid well. Good exposure. When it comes down to it, many of the party members will vote for a name they recognise’.
Comes across much better when you don’t see him,unfortunately,he has the visual problem of looking slimy with eyes of a rabbit caught in the headlights of a car.
A major problem I would have thought in an age when image and TV are so important.
33 Mike, Ken C would have a hard fight of it - Cameron has already put in his bid for the Lib Dem leadership with that web-site of his. Of course he’s have to come up with policies to match the rhetoric, which would probably kill off loads of ‘true blue’ grannies with shock and would cause funding for Conservatives from big business to dry up overnight if he ever tried to bring them in in a Conservative Party, which is about as likely as Glenda Jackson bringing a paternity suit against Alan Duncan.
72. You seem to think that the conservative business donors are interested in profit and nothing else. I woule contend that many of tem are not as one dimensional as that and will go along with the more centreist policies of Daves.
It’s startling to see GB at an apparently generous 1-2,when his nearest competitor, David Milliband,is quoted at 17-1,which in normal bookmaking terms this would make him a near no-hoper.Oddly the major bookmakers still have GB at around 1-6 or less. Little wonder therefore that Betfair and the other betting exchanges have made such headway over the last 2 or 3 years by providing punters with half decent value.
I think to be fair that this EU deal can hardly be described as a disaster.
It was obvious we could not get the rebate in terms of the costs related to the 10 new countries and to allow for this Blair initially offered to cut what the rebate would have been by £5.5 billion over 7 years. The final deal is £7 billion over 7 years.
So from his starting point he has conceded £1.5 billion over 7 years - ie £200 million per year. This is approx 0.04% of UK government expenditure.
That’s right he’s given up £1 for every £2,500 the government spends! The same as someone earning £25,000 a year giving away £10. Let’s keep it in perspective.
75 - no, my issue is that he has blinked, whiulst the French haven’t. In negotiation terms he now has the weaker hand, and they will do whatever they want, whilst demanding more cessession from us as “we have already given ground once”
As such, we are now in a weaker position - the financial aspect is a sidebar to this far more important point
76. I agree. The money isn’t the major issue. It’s the fact that the French have come out of this ahead of the game again.
77. you (not you as woody, but as British) seem to be very “antagonist” toward the French.
72-zebidee
‘Of course he’s have to come up with policies to match the rhetoric, which would probably kill off loads of ‘true blue’ grannies with shock and would cause funding for Conservatives from big business to dry up overnight if he ever tried’
I would’nt underestimate the ‘true blue’ grannies,many of which voted in large numbers for Ted Heath back in 1970,with a manifesto a long way to the left of where both Labour & the Liberals are to-day.
In terms of funding from big business,it could well have the opposite effect & increase funding in that it would increase the probability of getting rid of Labour!
75-Mike L
‘I think to be fair that this EU deal can hardly be described as a disaster’.
In view of what TB promised only 6 months ago and reconfirmed just 2 weeks ago at the CBI conference,what else can you call it other than a disaster?
75 - Good to agree with you for once.
77 - Woody: This is only partly true. Their net contribution has risen by 116% and they will henceforth contribute on teh same scale as the UK (or so I´m told - haven´t checked the figures myself).
Milky - I have a lot of sympathy for your views although I tend to think the EU is less crocked than you do. But one of the things the last Tory government did was to spend its time trying to shift all decision-making to the Council, thus exacerbating the UN-type problems you identify.
Blair has not only blinked but broken his commitment not to give up cash without reform.
He was quite clear at the CBI recently when he said,
The rebate is there for a reason, because of the distortions in expenditure on the Common Agricultural Policy. So if we didn’t get a rebate on the CAP spending, we would end up being even larger contributors [to EU coffers] than we are already.
He has given up nearly 8 billion and only for a promise of a review starting in three years time that will have no effect until the original period for the current CAP regime in 2014.
So, on Blair’s own terms, we will for the next nine years be in the same position of being ‘even larger contributors’. As he has given up so much of the rebate he has, on his own terms, made our postion worse.
Jack straw said ten days ago that We in Britain are prepared to pay our fair share, but no more than our fair share.
and
But our view is that it has to be possible for there to be changes in the fundamental policy, to take account of changed circumstances before 2014, which is nine years away.
So he failed in his own terms too.
Now that is what I call a complete fiasco.
A couple of points. By 2008 presumably there will be a new French President, which is why he set that date?
Everyone goes on about the need to reform the CAP, but what about the need to sign off the books in the EU. If I were TB I would refuse to hand any money over to the EU until they signed off their accounts. It would focus minds. Does anyone else notice how TB doesn’t address the question of the Europe he wants. Indeed does anyone know the Europe he wants?
I think this is where he is getting into problems over Europe, like Major by not having a clear view of what he wants the EU to be?
BTW the Lib Dems 4 Cameron site, is a tactic nicked from the US where both parties have been using such strategies for years. Indeed the most successful at it was Richard Nixon whose Democrats 4 Nixon group (in 1972) was chaired by Democratic Governor John Connally (before he became a Republican Senator). It is an excellent idea.
As for Cameron’s speech yesterday, it was all about setting the right mood music not about policies as such. In opposition he has to tack to the left to pick up the votes we need. The key is how he will govern, if he gets the chance.
83,”By 2008 presumably there will be a new French President, which is why he set that date?”
and will UK have the same PM in 2008/2009?
83 - I think your comment on Cameron’s speech in Hereford and the implications of it is spot on, Andrew.
Some days ago there were talks about Welsh Assembly elections here. Labour has selected the council leader for the Blaenau Gwent seat.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/4533564.stm
Andrew M - funnily enough the main CAP subsidies WERE signed off by the auditors this year. In the UK the accounts of the Department of Work and Pensions (and its predecessors) haven´t been signed off by the National Audit Office for nearly twenty years. Will you apply the same logic there? The recent NAO report on MOD major projects painted a woeful picture. so no spening on defence either?
76, 77, 80 etc. I don’t like the EU any more than most people on here but I just think the whole thing needs to be kept in perspective.
People say Blair has blinked etc but has he? - surely all we have is the status quo - no real change to the CAP but was there any prospect all all of this in the first place?
There is no significant change to the UK’s funding and the point is that all major West European countries will be paying more to fund the new countries. I really can’t see that there’s anything to get excited about.
One other crucial point - it is the new East European countries whose views are most close to the UK about the future of the EU. So it would have been absolutely crazy to have fallen out with them here over nothing and lost them as our best allies in the EU going forward.
Rereading this article I begin to wonder if this surrender was not the intention all along and the recent rhetoric about reform was a double bluff.
The Guardian reports almost exactly the deal now being foreshadowed in 1999. Yep 1999. It said
That could point to a deal whereby the rebate remains, but the basis on which it is calculated is modified. The cost of enlargement to the east could be excluded from the rebate calculations, so that Britain can be seen to pay its ‘fair share’ of the burden.
Mike L - once again I agree entirely.
In my view there was no prospect whatsoever of redusing spending on the CAP now because of the agreement at Berlin (which looked better then thatn it does now). I think this deal reduces Rural Development spending which might otherwise have grown significantly (I´ll have to check - this was the proposal iac).
As there was no chance of redusing spending, Blair might have made better use of his time reducing farm prices and thus export refunds. This would have fitted in with his development and trade objectives.
90 Still not sure how I have turned reducing into redusing not once but twice!
88 Mike L You can make a case for the deal that has been made. It wouldn’t be popular or right but it could legitimately have been made if Blair and Co had not said that it would not be right to do such a deal without a real reform of the very wasteful CAP being part of it.
And they were right.
We are now lumbered with a budget until 2014 that several countries think is unsustainable (clearly the Dutch and the Swedes for example) and that perpetuates the EU imbalances in subsidising rich farmers. A system which takes resources from the new eastern members that are essential for the modernisation that will entrench democracy and which continues the unfair trade position for third world farmers who might otherwise export to our markets : a much more valuable contribution to alleviating third world poverty than handing out loose cash as GB favours.
But taxpayers money is cheaper than tackling the entrenched barriers that the CAP erects. And they calculate, the electorate will see the talk of money for the third world and think it good and not ask difficult questions.
On so many levels this deal is stinky, and, as MBK points out, at least two of its main protagonists will not have to deal with the consequences and several others are so blinded by the apparent national benefits (Spain, Portugal, Poland etc) that they don’t care. But they will.
92. I agree with all you say about the budget.
As far as “…. if Blair and Co had not said that it would not be right …..” then I would assume he said that as a negotiating tactic. Otherwise he may well have ended up with a worse deal.
For a man so overbearingly vain as Tony it was far more important that he gets a face saving deal at the end of his EU presidency than for him to him to preserve the rebate. After all, he won’t ever have to face the electorate again so everything he does from now on will be to with a regard to his own legacy rather the electoral popularity of NuLab.
58 GQ. Do not understand your logic, surely if Lab let the seat go their vote will shrink primarily to the Lib Dem, he will get back probably with a larger majority, especially if he is leader with all the media profile.
What a funny old week. Is CK staying or is he going?. You have to admire the cheek of DC, but a bit like Rik its good rollicking stuff
but not to be taken seriously unless you are the media. The only policies I have got from DC seem to be more and more right wing, Education, (admissions, abolish Tuition fees) and Europe
What is the latest with Mrs Watson the MEP, is she still staying in her current party and not going ever more right with DC?.
Local elections bizarre, the Barnet and Bournemouth results. Expected the latter, not such a monumental drop in the Lib Dem vote but High Barnet. Can only think my anti war relations must have voted many times!!!!!!
One school of thought is that this is all a Machiavellian Lib Dem plot to seize the headlines with CK emerging in charge and all his cohort swearing full and lasting allegience. Apparently a Times columist, Tim Haines or Matthew Paris or someone, said a few weeks ago the Lib Dems need to do someting outrageous to get attention, is this it?. If it is well……….
Merry Christmas everyone, evens Santa does not come down my chimney, ain’t got one.
A lot of people have a lot of thinking to do over their Christmas pud. If it is full of rum anything could happen and probably will.
Great days for all and sundry.
O/T - 6 more candidates have been added to Betfair’s Lib Dem market. So we now have 15 candidates (25% of the parliamentary party!)
95.”What is the latest with Mrs Watson the MEP, is she still staying in her current party and not going ever more right with DC?.”
who is Mrs Watson? Are you referring to Caroline Jackson?
98, Andrea, perhaps I am, the lady from Swindon who is an MEP for South West, obviously I have been at the rum already!!!!
Gets better, Andrea was 97 not 98.
98. David(s). Caroline JAckson is a tory MEP for the South West (don’t know if she comes from Swindon). She’s the one who said last week she was ready not to follow DC out of the EPP.
She’s the wife of Robert JAckson who defected to Labour before retiring last may.
96 I think the maximum number of candidates able to stand would be eight, so some punters will lose their money at an early stage.
98 Mrs Jackson says that she is intending to leave if Dave Silverspoon goes ahead with his plans
What is the rationale for including David Howarth on the list (@96) of prospects for the next Lib Dem Leader? He hasn´t been mentioned as a possibility on this site, has he? And he has only just come into the Commons, as MP for Cambridge.
I think it could even be as high as 10, Peter (101) - but only if the candidates also nominated somebody else. It could be…. Under STV, it could be a useful strategy for picking up second preferences and demonstrating unity at the smae time.
Just bought the DO at 0.6/1 as next Labour leader on Betfair - a remarkable slide against him, even over just the past 24 hours.
104. DO is Gordon as the “Dour One”, right?
I spent a couple of second trying to think about a Labour MP with the first name starting with D and the surname with O!
105 - You got it in one Andrea!
Nice plug for you in today’s Telegraph,Mike!
83/85 I take your joyous postings to mean “our new leader will lie through his teeth to get where he wants to then revert to form.” Really is a Blair clone then?
On the Subject of Blair, Simon is dead right: the textbooks talk of narcissists shifting their source of Narcissitic Supply (which feeds their real fragile self-worth) from one person or group to another, generally trying to rise up a hierarchy in those from whom they seek positive feedback, or rather the perceprion by themselves of positive feedback. So Blair’s Narcisistic Supply focus through his adult life went from Cherie to the Labour conference, to the media, to the electorate, to Clinton and then George Dubbya and now to the collective heads of state of Europe. It is totally irrelevent to Blair what setlement he got or what the people of this country think of it, it is how HE feels at these powerful and important men feel about him that matters. Which is pretty tough of course if you’re a Labour MP with a marginal constituency!
http://www.cameron4libdems.com and
http://www.libdems4cameron.co.uk are fun.
James M, woody, and others: you do realise that the deal actually produces more rebate for Britain than before? We’ve simply agreed not to rip off the poorer new countries for as much ADDITIONAL rebate as the formula would in theory have allowed us to (basically the larger the EU, the more rebate the formula produces). I don’t think that a deal allowing us to profit at the expense of the likes of Slovakia and Lithuania was ever on the cards, and if it had been it would have been overuse of power politics.
This Cameron website you’re talking about, do you mean:
http://www.libdems4cameron.co.uk
or is it
http://www.cameron4libdems.com ?
Zebidee - great minds!
102.”What is the rationale for including David Howarth on the list (@96) of prospects for the next Lib Dem Leader? ”
It’s there for teh same reasons Gorgeous George, John Austin and Frank Dobson are in the LAbour Leader market.
Ah, we’re back
Well done, Robert
- many many thanks…
I was skiing at the weekend and unable to get it back. Mike was most agitated!
Yippee….OK punters, what do we make of MORI’s 9% Tory lead? - “Not a lot” is the obvious reply in view of their track record…
But I’m not complaining..
The Conservatives are 2% ahead among their “all voters” section, which must be the first Conservative lead in years among that group.
The underlying figures for Brown vs Cameron, still look reasonably favourable for Brown though.
114 - It’s nice to see John. Although we’re only two points ahead amongst all those naming a party. Still, musn’t grumble!
114 - John, if this is the 40/32/21 poll, all I can say is how amazed I am our support has held up given the week we’ve had.
If the Tories are going to increase their support obviously i’d rather it came fromLabour than us. Also, if you run these figures through Baxter you get a rather nice NOC scenario with the Tories as largest party and us still arund 50 seats
Whoops, I’ve dropped the mould …
116 - Did anyone see the Dimbleby interview with CK? I really didn’t like the line of questions about CK’s drinking. It was quite unpleasant to watch and I don’t think it’s particularly relevant. He also hinted that legal action was being considered (I think) against Donnach whatever-his-name-is for the comments he made in the Scotland on Sunday.
I thought CK did quite well but you do suspect he’s quite badly wounded and its going to be tough for him to carry on.
In the reverse of an “I am Spartacus” moment, I’d just like to say “I am not Russell Mellor”; though I did meet him once - scared the bejesus out of me…
117 - Does anyone know what the date of the polling was - I think it may have been between the 9th and 12th but I can’t remember exacly of the top of my head.
118 - one thing CK is good at is “backs to the wall” stuff. I didn’t see the interview, so I can’t comment directly, but I would imagine he’s probably safe until next May. If Cameron starts making inroads expect to hear the sounds of swords being unsheathed …
Thanks fopr bringing the site back!
114.John O, I’m anxiously waiting for you reply to my last email sent yesterday (last question in particular)
Anthony Wells says that both the Yougov and Populus polls are more recent.
117 - following on from this, what about the theory that Cameron’s amusing website was aimed more at preparing the ground in his own party for a possible co-operation or even coalition with the Lib Dems than it was at winning over defectors?
After all, barely 6 months ago we were being painted as worse than Satan
so a bit of rehabilitation is going to be required.
The 40/31/21/Baxter scenario tells its own story.
MORI result has got to be very good news for us. There is a pattern emerging where we have finally left the box we have been in and moved into a new range of 35-38% with all the main pollsters broadly agreeing. Although we have had the odd period of better polling before it’s not been consistant and across all the pollsters.
Unfortunately for Tabman I think the polling was done before the worst of Kennedy’s week of hell hit the public, so the Lib Dems creditable polling numbers may not sustain, although IMO Kennedy’s problems are not going to affect the Lib Dems polling much unless he actually does get ousted.
124 Tabman Rest easy . You are Satan’s Brood but Basher’s Boss is a good Christian and believes all sinners can be brought to the ways of Righteousness. And has he not started on that good work in Hereford.
The YouGov poll was more recent - the Populus poll was done at almost exactly the same time as MORI’s (in fact MORI’s fieldwork finished slightly later, they started on the same day but MORI’s took 4 days and Populus’s 3 days).
125 - he might go of his own volition! And, which way might the polling numbers go?
126 - Righteousness or right-ness?
O/T - following Friday’s discussions, perhaps they could be carried on here?
Any idea what time Blair is in the Commons debating this rebate deal? Would love to see this!
Tabman, I think the ‘trouble’ in the Lib dems won’t overtly affect peoples VI as long as it’s just political gossip for the politically aware minority (as it has been so far).
On the other hand, if Kennedy were to be sacked, ousted, stabbed in the back or whatever spin the press put on it, and the Lib Dems then became mired in the kind of unseemly struggle for the top job that typified my party from about 1989 onwards then it’s bad news for you guys.
If Kennedy goes of his own accord, different again. In that situation I suppose it all depends on who takes over.
Re LD poll ratings… it could be that - a bit like when Paddy’s affair broke - the increased media coverage has an overall beneficial effect for the party. At the same point in the last Parliament Mori had us on 15%, cf 21% now.
For all the predictions of LD meltdown from various posters the party’s ratings seem remarkably robust considering:
(i) the post-election media black-out of the LDs (you could almost hear the sigh of relief on This Week when they could get back to the Abbott & Portillo show, and pretend again there are only two parties); and (ii) the largely uncritical press the Tories have been getting for the last 2-3 months.
I think that there is no reason whatsoever to believe that we are returning to two-party politics.
124. I think in reality a 40/31/21 GE result would almost certainly produce a Conservative majority, given that a uniform swing is not what would happen. That said, I am highly dubious of MORI’s polls, which seem very volatile.
I think that’s correct Fred. I think it’s unlikely the Conservative vote would increase by 7% in places like Liverpool and Glasgow. I think you’d be more likely to see more modest rise there, and a bigger rise in safe Conservative and marginal seats.
I share your scepticism about MORI polls though.
All credit to Cameron. Ruling out any return to selection in education (yesterday’s Observer) is an astute move. It indicates that he is prepared to make some changes to broaden Conservative appeal.
Stephen - at this point in the last Parliament MORI hadn’t yet begun prompting by party name, hence the low figures they were finding for the Lib Dems - 13s and 15s, as opposed to ICM who were showing Lib Dem support at 19% or 20%. If you don’t prompt by party name it underestimates the true level of Lib Dem support as some people forget about them. These days MORI prompts by party name, so no longer underestimates the Lib Dems.
Given how well Charlie Kennedy invariably does in opinion polls (not the best PM ones, the ones asking about being likeable, honest, understanding, caring, etc, etc) I suspect there would be a short-term negative effect on the Lib Dem rating if he were ousted (unless, as Stephen says, the publicity alone gives them a boost). In the long term of course it depends on who replaces him and how they do.
135 - Sean, indeed you might see it drop were anti-Labour tactical voting to come into force.
135. Yes..I think a national swing of 6% would probably mean 10%+ swings in some of the more volatile marginal seats e.g. in London, maybe places like Swindon too. A rewind to some extent of the pattern seen in 1997 which delivered Labour a huge majority…
139 … and the Lib Dems the bulk of their 62 seats
139- London already had an above average swing this time, so it’s not guarantee that they’ll have an above swing next time too.
True, Andrea, but London tends to be more electorally volatile than other places (compare the 1968 and 1971 local elections for example). My guess would be that if there were a significant swing to the Conservatives next time, it would be greater than average in London.
122 - Andrea, Have just replied to you!
I thought Tony Blair said he was “a pretty straight sort of guy” not ordinary
Nick - I did not complain about us funding the new European countries. My problem is that the Prime Minister said he would be only doing a deal if he could get reform of the CAP - on this he has failed, game, set and match to Chirac.
Equally I wanted him to rebalance the system where countries like France and Luxembourg - not impoverished nations get incredibly greater monies from the EU than we do. I just feel this is not particularly fair.
I see the tory faithful are out in force. A couple of leads in the polls and they are as ‘high’ as kites. Yet the Tory shadow cabinet that get their ‘coke’ from sources other than Coca-Cola. Best of all Mr. Cameron as yet to explain how he can flip-flop from writing the manifesto commitment to dumping asylum seekers on the dodger bank (or other suitable off-shore location) to “taking them to our hearts, and feeding and clothing and schooling them” for example.
Ok CK its your round I believe
Dodger bank Bryan? That’s where the Tories put Lady Tesco’s money isn’t it?