Should Charles ask Santa for a bike?
December 24th, 2005-
Maybe riding to work will get his leadership back on track?
After his skirmishes with leading party MPs over the the past two weeks Charles Kennedy knows that when he returns to Westminster in the New Year he will be under the most intense scrutiny. Can he save his leadership?
With the less than ringing endorsements from the top two in the betting to replace him, Menzies Campbell (11/8) and Mark Oaten (3/1), Kennedy has to establish quickly that he’s capable of carrying on with the job. As a senior party official told me a few days ago, “It comes to something when the only MP speaking unequivocally for you is Lembit Opik“.
As well as his political capabilities there are also the question marks about his life-style and Kennedy needs to do something about those perceptions. But how can he show that he has turned over a new leaf?
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An answer we suggest, and it is Christmas Eve, is that Kennedy should get a bike and start riding to work Cameron-style. He should look at the way that Cameron has used his cycling to make one political point after another.
The bike says that he’s fit and healthy whatever he might have done in his youth. It says that this guy is confident enough of himself that he does not need the trappings of office like a car to work. It also says that while others might be talking about global warming and the environment that he, in his own personal way, is doing something about it.
For a day or so Kennedy cycling to work would attract a huge amount of publicity and no doubt detractors would be saying that he was just copying Cameron. But after he got into it he would feel the real physical benefits as well as finding that a bike is probably the fastest and most stress-free way of getting about Central London.
Go on Charles - be daring - get on a bike.
After all if any party leader is to travel like this it should be the Lib Dem one.
Mike Smithson
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A very good idea, but can Charles have one of those bikes that are assisted by an electric motor? It won’t do his image much good if he is panting and stopping for breath each time he goes up a slope.
Good morning all. I am overcome with self-concern, for last night I actually had a dream about pb.com.
2 - I’m worried to ask, but what happened?!
Good Idea! make it a Brompton folding bike too. British made, and designed by Andrew Ritchie. One of our great export stories. Go on Charles, let’s see you on a Brompton.
Good Idea! make it a Brompton folding bike too. British made, and designed by Andrew Ritchie. One of our great export stories. Go on Charles, let’s see you on a Brompton.
3. There was a series of comments about how everyone’s main enemy actually comes from within the Party they support. I was finding it very amusing, and someone kept going on about Ed Leigh.
Yes, it was that vivid, and yes I am very worried about what’s going on in my head. Shouldn’t I still be dreaming about Hollyoaks girls or something vaguely normal?
6. well, Julian, if this could re-assure you, I once dreamt about Frank Dobson!
7. Dear God, did you awake in a cold sweat?
8. Almost! I just wanted to sleep a bit in the afternoon and I ended up dreaming about Dobson….I’ve not slept anymore in the afternoon since that day!
Merry Christmas Everyone! Ho Ho Ho!
It is silly to try to stereotype CK in this way. The MP’s have messed up by wounding where they meant to assassinate. No one would stand against him in June when they had the chance. Now a new personality emerges and they all lose their nerve. Charles’s character has not changed since June; if he was to be uncontested then, he can’t suddenly become a liability 6 months later. It is mortifying to see the MPs play into the hands of the Tory/Labour press, both of which would be glad to see Charles off as part of generally undermining the LDs and taking back votes. Already political commentators are hopefully predicting our doom, as they do at every election.
Beth
Mike. Your suggstion re the bike has merits - although as you point out may fall into the pr trap of ‘copying’ (which always gives more power to the elbow of the copied, not the copyer (cat?).
A more pertinent image thing that CK needs to do is sort out his hair. I heard him described as a ‘Ginger Whinger’ the other day - which means people are noticing his ’shortcomings’. Perhaps he should have it cut shorter and more stylishly, strangely to draw attention away from it.
12-”Perhaps he should have it cut shorter and more stylishly, strangely to draw attention away from it. ”
or he could just steal some from Kali Mountford.
11 - I still believe that if CK wants to lead the party into the next election and I am not 100% sure he does , then the way to do it is to offer himself up for re-election and get a new mandate from the party as a whole . I would hazard a guess that the mandate would be substantial enough to put an end to the constant sniping in the Tory press . I find it significant that there are many Conservatives on here who criticise CK and say he should be replaced as leader when if their criticisms are true their best interests would lie in him remaining as leader .
I once dreamt about Julie Kirbride. Sigh*
15 - in the long hair (much better IMO) or short hair era?
16. Christmas Eve question: which Julie do you prefer?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/mpdb/img/10202.jpg
http://www.bromsgrove-conservatives.org.uk/mp/media_photos/9860.jpg
14. One reason we Tories hope the Lib dems topple CK (apart from the spectacle of watching another political party tear itself into shreds over the leadership instead of it being us all the time) is because all of the leading replacements are worse.
I completely missed the point of “On yer bike Charlie!”. You were actually talking about his transport? It’s got a bit of a deckchairs on the Titanic look to it but whether there is some gimmick that can rescue his doomed leadership is actually an interesting question. The only thing that could save him I suspect is a major defection from one of the other two parties or possibly a stunning byelection win. A Harley Davidson with leathers might help but a cycle to work just won’t cut it.
There is always the risk that if cycling he will fall under the proverbial bus. Maybe thta is what Mike S is secretly wishing
Happy Christmas one and all (even those of the Lib Dem persuasion amongst us)!
“A more pertinent image thing that CK needs to do is sort out his hair. I heard him described as a ‘Ginger Whinger’ the other day -”
I noticed a 48 sheet poster on Tottenham Court Rd with a well endowed man only wearing briefs with the giant letters CK at the bottom….. Perhaps the fight back has started?
21.”I noticed a 48 sheet poster on Tottenham Court Rd with a well endowed man only wearing briefs with the giant letters CK at the bottom….. Perhaps the fight back has started? ”
No, Roger, it was probably just a Labour MP searching for someone to spend the Christmas Eve with
19. CK can only save his job if he decides to follow the OBs or the SDs in a decisive manner, this weird hegemony he has over differing factions is inherently unstable.
Some LibDems are panicking too early. They should hold their fire and await developments in Cameron’s leadership and what happens when Labour changes leader (and should attempt to hasten this process). It would be a bit silly to steer right, only to find the Tories strong and Labour weak - or steer left and find Brown shoreing up the Labour leftwing vote, with Cameron perhaps not fulfilling early promise.
14-Mark
‘I still believe that if CK wants to lead the party into the next election and I am not 100% sure he does , then the way to do it is to offer himself up for re-election’.
I am surprised that he didn’t do this at the October conference (start of a new parliament etc.) as I feel at that time he would have won comfortably.
If he does that now then he may still win due to the Liberal membership in the country but will be leader of divided MP’s at Westminster and I can’t see the press letting go.
24. I think that Lib-Dems have to think on a bigger scale about the direction they want to take the party in. They could indeed wait to see how the current climate works out and take advantage of a relatively short-term political niche by moving left or right. Or they could set out their own ideology irrespective of the other political parties and in the process seek to be a ’cause’ of political movement rather than an ‘effect’.
Leaving aside the bad press he’d get for “copying” Cameron, portly middle-aged men don’t often make the most natural of cyclists, it wouldn’t take too long for a sly photographer to get an unflattering image of a slightly rounded ginger figure hopelessly panting for breath, although it’d be a sub-editor’s dream….
27. I was thinking abour Charlie on a bike dressed like Cameron in the photo at the top of the thread and I couldn’t stop laughing!
I’m of Mike’s persuasion - that CK is a disaster as a Leader. What has been sustaining him is the lack of an obvious and credible successor. And now the vegetables seem to have fluffed the assassination.
I’m actually rather impressed by the way CK has refused to faint at the sight of his blood on the carpet and has fought back. So maybe Mike’s Million Pound bet (was it) is in danger and CK will survive, but for God’s sake someone please give him a makeover and the basic training PPCs have nowadays. But do we have an organisation professional enough to do that? The ominous signs of the past few weeks for me were not the leadership issue but the obvious yawning and growing gap between the Tory High Command and ours.
But enough of the glass half-full stuff - a very, very Barry Crimbo to all our readers and contributors - and a very big thanks to Santa Mike and Techie Elf Robert for making the past year’s politics so entertaining.
I’m going out for a drink now, and I may be some time…..
“It would be a bit silly to steer right, only to find the Tories strong and Labour weak - or steer left…..”
You have a high opinion of political parties alex. Full steam for a gap in the market, where that gap happens to be doesn’t matter much. a good strategy for selling products but surely something of a problem when selling a philosophy?
14 - Mark yje sniping is coming from his own party at least as much as the Tory press.
And I think I’ve always said quite nice things about CK - I think the Libs would live to regret getting rid of him.
31 - Sorry by ‘yje’ I actually mean ‘the’ - bit of a heavy night!
Re the comments about CK’s “hair”. There would be no problem in fixing this quickly - all he needs to do is buy another one!
32.”bit of a heavy night! ”
Max, were you (in the company of Twiggy) testing the 24 h drinking law again?
CK’s great salvation is that there is no obvious replacement who appears to have the capability of doing better.
re 29. I do not have any bets on relating to CK’s going or indeed any aspect of the Lib Dems leadership. I’ve got a long history of getting LD-related bets wrong.
34 - We’ve had 24hour drinking in Edinburgh for a while! A couple of places open at 5 in the morning and have done for years - and tonight I have to go for a traditional Christmas eve swally before going Carol Singing. It won’t be a pretty site.
Still as I was nominated on the other thread to be health secretary I do feel I should research the new rules as fully as possible!
36. ops, I didn’t know it
I suppose Nanny Patty will help you in your research about the new laws…not sure if you would like to have private lessons with her!
37 - She’s not really a politician you could imagine going for a drink with - in fact I don’t think there are many MP’s who I would want in my local - it’s quite a respectable establishment.
But I have to spend as much time in the pub as possible - after March I won’t be able to enjoy a traditional smoky atmosphere!
39. well, I could imagine going to drink a tea with her.
Mike S - the betting link in your story does not include the Betfair prices.
Oaten’s odds are much better on Betfair - currently 4.2/1.
16 - Andrea. Definitely the second one.
41.AHM, she looks to Princess Diana in that photo!
Btw, have you received my Christmas e-cards? I sent one to myself yersterday to see if it worked and it took ages to arrive!
Are we back up now? Hope everyone had a good christmas.
Ah, we’re back!
44. Hoe you has a good Christmas Alistair? Heard nothing about Charlies bike yet.
45 - Very nice thank you, Woody. I trust you did as well? Nothing about CK at all in the news for several days now. Looks like the Lib Dems botched the assassination attempt, so now Charlie limps on like a wounded animal and the rest of them all look like a bunch of ditherers who lack the ruthlessness to strike.
People can say what they like about the Conservative Party but when we decide to commit regicide, we usually finish the job.
46. That’s because we are hard header realists and not wishy washy.
Christmas was very nice thank you. Backlog of thing to do now of course though.
Xmas fine here - glad to see eveyone frisky.
Not sure what I think about CK, except that you can only change leaders plausibly once per parliament, so it might be an idea not to rush.
Poor old Reggie! (46). But then you Tories have had a lot of practice over the last few years. What will be the signal for the despatching of Cameron, I wonder…. His discourse does not seem to be going down too well with some of the Tory diehards - they seem to think he means it. Tories striving for equality??? I don´t quite see that as sincerely meant, does anybody?
Just over a week ago, I put £250 on willhill.com at 1.4 saying “NO” to the question “Will Charles Kennedy lead the Lib Dems into the next election?”.
Annoyingly, I realised later that depending on how you interpret the wording, it could easily be paid not as soon as Kennedy goes (soon), but at the next election, on the grounds that he might become leader again before the next election and lead them into it. This would turn a healthy, promising payout of 40% in a few months into a not very impressive 40% return in about four years.
Anyone with more experience in this field know which outcome is more likely?
I should add that I of course emailed willhill.com asking them their policy, without reply as yet.
43 & 44 Hope you gentlemen both had enjoyable Christmas’s. Have had a good time so far. Hearts won 5-0. Hibs lost and Rangers drew. Shame Livi couldn’t hang on!
What did you make of Peter Hain’s festive attack on us. I mean imagine having the temerity to suggest the Enniskillen bombers shouldn’t get off Scot free!
Hope everyone had a great Christmas.
Many thanks for getting the site back up again.
50 - normally in this situation they would be likely to pay you as soon as CK went, but you are quite correct to point out that they have the get-out if they want it.
Hope everyone enjoyed Christmas.
We’re back….:-)
AHM was so impatient to blog again…..I had to advice him to look at Julie Kirkbride’s photo gallery to calm him down
Btw, it looks like BNP has nothing to do other than trying to infiltrate the tories in marginal seats just to destroy them.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/farright/story/0,11375,1674306,00.html
book value, I hope you’re right that they will pay sooner rather than later. A 40% return in four months is very different from 40% in about four years. Esoteric as such things are, I hoped that maybe the word “into” indicated that it was referring to Kennedy’s current leadership extending into the next general election campaign and up to polling day.
Given how many companies were paying out to those who had bet on Cameron before the result had even been announced, I suppose I have good reason to think they might not drag their feet if Kennedy is finally knifed in the Spring.
54. book value, you once linked a website with all councils and how many seats each party have, could you give me the link again?
After a virus attack, I had to cancel everything on my computer and so I lost that site
Not so much O/T as referring to a number of posts on a number of threads over a number of preceding days. Apologies got the length of this but I’ve only just had the necessary access:
There has been a lot of talk on this forum about the Conservatives trying to become a liberal party, focussed on the difference between “talking the talk” and “walking the walk” as far as this is concerned and whether “walking the walk”, and “being liberal” might eventually split the party. However, whilst there is some grain of truth in these musings, I think they largely miss the point due to a rather opaque definition of what “being liberal” actually means in this case.
Let us be clear: the Conservative Party is not and never will be seen plausibly as a party which will actively further a “liberal” agenda. I don’t believe any future Tory administration will introduce legislation to further liberalise society, and neither does the public. Fortunately for us, however, this is immaterial. What Cameron needs to do, and I think is doing quite well, is conveying the fact that we will be “liberal enough” to be relevant.
Social policy is not like economic, foreign or constitutional policy. By and large it is a progressive and organic movement, in directions which pertain to contemporary society. It is not something which swings left and right on a textbook-defined spectrum of theories like taxation or Europe. It can rarely be influenced by government, and all connected legislation is and always will be reactive rather than proactive.
Where the likes of Portillo and some of the doubters here are wrong is that the centre-ground electorate is not looking to see whether we have genuinely “changed our spots”; they simply want to be assured that we will not be wasting our time in the future introducing and prioritizing retrogressive legislation on subjects such as civil union for homosexuals, banning (though not limiting on medical grounds) abortion and instead be offering a direction in the economy, public services and abroad which is relevant to Britain today.
Thatcher’s, and earlier Heath’s, greatest strategic move was to understand and embrace the biggest and most important social change in the 30 years after the war, namely the breakdown of traditional class structure in this country. After a period where Labour had been in power for 11 of the previous 16 years, the 1979 party had to realize that any further attempts to prop up class directly would make them irrelevant, which is why it was important to become the party of social mobility and personal aspiration, the main drivers of Tory success in the 1980s. This is not to say they welcomed this breakdown in class (they didn’t, and many of us still don’t), but rather sought to deal with it on their own terms.
Time has also changed in the last 25 years. Society, totally outside of the control of government, has become more tolerant on the subjects of ethnicity and family breakdown, and even sexuality (though less so). The strange thing is that left and right both have very strong cases to claim that this country is “liberal” or “conservative” respectively. We are a more liberal and tolerant nation than many, in terms of our secularization, our popular culture and our internationalism (as defined in opposition to parochialism, not nationalism). On the other hand, the person on the street is conservative and very rarely wants to accept in his own sphere, gay marriage, large-scale immigration, etc. Most importantly of all, though, is that most people don’t want upheaval of any kind, including that driven by pointless government legislation, and are largely tolerant of what others want to do even if they disapprove in their own lives. People don’t want to think about these issues.
So this is where Cameron comes in. Whilst I don’t personally believe that many in the party, even Leigh, would want us to bring in legislation to ban abortion or whatever, part of the “nasty party” image suggests that maybe the public do in some measure. However what both modernizers and opposition partisans must realize is that the alternative to that is not to “become” a proactively socially liberal party, but to become tolerant enough for our main platform on the economy and public services to be relevant to today’s public, in the same way that Thatcher (and indeed even Blair) did all those years ago.
Sorry, I posted the above on the wrong thread to begin with (not that there is really a “right” thread for it but anyway).
Is this the one you mean, Andrea?
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/makeup.htm
60. yes, Book Value. Thanks.
46, 47 - one person’s hard headed realist is another person’s heartless b@stard
Similarly, one person’s wishy-washy liberal is another person’s considered, compassionate person. 
55 - Andrea, I see the article also contains advice to the Tories from IDS on how to deal with the Lib Dems. Hmmm ….
57 - in other words, “its the economy, stupid”
62. Tabman, have you finished your survey of pb.com posters?
So have you put me down as an Old Lab loony Leftist?
Hi everybody. Sorry about the closure over the holiday period but if we had to be down then this was as good a period as any. Our new server seems to be operating much faster than the old one and hopefully this will be robust enough for dozens of users all to be trying to load threads of 400 plus comments at nhe same time.
I hope people like the 2006 competition. So far there’s 100% agreement that Tony Blair will survive the year - but maybe that will change.
The view of CK’s immediate future is a bit more gloomy. As for the May local elections everybody is predicting losses for Labour and there’s almost a unaminous view that Tory poll leads will continue.
Keep the entries rolling in. Hopefully there will be a big prize on offer.
64 - Mike - thanks to both you and Robert for getting everything up and running so quickly. Great idea for a competition too!
63 - Andrea, the spreadsheet is on my other PC. I’m logging on remotely (at my mother in law’s), so won’t be able to complete it until I return home. I’ll classify you however you like, just choose one definition and stick to it!
58 - Anatole, a more considered response.
You may well be right in your analysis that as far as the GBE goes, “not frightening the horses” on social issues is about as good as the Tories need to do. There is something to which you haven’t really responded which has been part of the debate. This more to do with party activists and members.
“That nice Mr Cameron” was undoubtedly very popular with your party membership; a 2-1 margin of victory show this clearly. However … much in the same way that in our party if one wing gains precedence over the other, or as has already been demonstrated when Blair took over New Labour, it does have the effect of p1ssing off some of the existing membership.
We’ve yet to see how the Lib Dems will pan out, but Labour lost many left-wing activists when Blair came to power, and another tranche over Iraq. It has survived this because many of those were in the kind of inner city seats where it frankly didn’t need activists, although the party coudl be susceptible in those seats to a concerted effort by one or other opposition party.
THe question, and it is still a question, is how the party membership will react to Cameron’s “Lib Dem-lite” policy noises. If you don;t need those members as activists or donors, then fine. You may be able to replace them, as Labour did, with new members.
However, it will certainly have an as yet unknowable effect.
66. Tabman, the
is not needed.
Then it’s not my duty to choose a definition, it’s the “researcher” job.
Andrea - I was only teasing your prevarications
Did you have a good Christmas break?
Hard to say, Tabman, given the very mixed messages coming from the new Conservative leadership.
Although there are areas of great Conservative strength, such as Northern Yorkshire, rural East Anglia, the bulk of the Home Counties, well-off parts of London, and the rural Midlands, there aren’t that many places which have that massive tribal loyalty to the Conservatives that Labour’s heartlands have had for Labour.
For Labour to win 209 seats on 28% of the vote, in 1983, shows just how hard it is to beat Labour in much of Britain.
70 - Sean, it would be interesting to see what the average turnout in those seats was in 1983, compared to what it was in 2005. I suspect, as with all parties, that that tribal loyalty is on the wane. When turnouts are below 50% it shows what a party that could energise the apathetic could acheive.
69. Tabman, are you accusing me of lying?
I’m already consulting with my lawyers!
If you want too see some Old Labour reminiscences , look at Islington North CLP website. Not sure the arrival of Tony Blair reached them.
http://www.islington-north-clp.org.uk/
Andrea, if a u-turn is good enough for Lady T …
73. Are you linking to Lady T? I think I couldn’t take any more insults from you!
Completely off-topic…
6th December 2005, David Cameron: “There is such a thing as society, it’s just not the same as the state”
21st December, Tony Blair warns Labour against appearing more “interested in the state than we are in people”.
Am I reading too much into language or is this verbal evidence of the centre-ground war? Of course it also appears to show Blair poaching Tory ideas (shock horror); and dare I say it also depicts a genuine concern over the trends we’re all seeing in the polls?
67 - Annecdotally at least we seem to be picking up a few new, younger members. You might have seen a wee bit on the BBC website and the Scottish press saying the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Students are now the largest student wing of any party in Scotland. At the same time I don’t know of anyone who is considering leaving because of what DC has said or done.
75 - Julian, felicitations!
Blair has always been the arch triangulator and I’ve no doubt is looking to close off the poll lead as soon as possible. I think there is a general trend of vacuousness in political discourse. Look at any party’s communications and try to imagine the negative.
“More freedom, prosperity, security …” etc.
Didn’t someone post some comparative quotes of Cameron and George W Bush recently?
71. Tabman, if you really want to compare the 1983 turnout to the 2005 one in those 209 seats, here you could find all the info you’re searching for:
http://www.election.demon.co.uk/
Btw, I’ve decided I want to be “Traditional Labour”. If I’ve to choose between Old Lab and Blairites, I would go for the first: in the end I prefer drinking a tea with Alice Mahon than holidaying in Barbados with Tony!
Btw,
77. The comparisons between Cameron and Bush’s language simply take Bush’s use of the “compassionate conservatism” slogan that Cameron has also partially deployed.
“Look at any party’s communications and try to imagine the negative.”
Very true; but whilst Nu Lab used to have their own vacuous slogans/language, they now appear to be borrowing the new kid’s.
79 - When you look at quotes like:
21st December, Tony Blair warns Labour against appearing more “interested in the state than we are in people”
then, though this may have been revived lately by Cameron, you can trace the theme back to the “scars on my back” speech, for example.
O/T - In relation to the competition quite a few people have predicted substantial (100+)Lib Dem losses. Do people think these will be to Labour or ourselves. If it is to the Tories I struggle to see where these losses will come from. Does anyone have any ideas?
79. Am I the only one who detests the “compassionate conservatism” term?
I would not like to be pitied by Cameron (or anyone else).
I suppose he’s saying it meaning he would be feel interested or concerned by people’s problems more than just pity them, but when I see a politician using that term, I usually think first to the “feel pity” definition.
81. I haven’t entered the competion yet, because I want to see what councils outside London are up next year.
IIRW, many council seats which are up were contested in 2003, am I right?
82 - A third of all the seats in Metropolitan councils will be up for election. Along with all-out elections in a few other authorities (IIRC).
This may be useful:
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2006.htm
(though it’s on the same site as my previous link, the navigation between them isn’t obvious).
Did anyone see the report that the BNP have said they plan to infultrate small Tory associations. Shows how stupid they are that they tell everyone the plans beforehand.
Re: 58 - Indeed, a very interesting post, Anatole, and it’s hard not to agree with a great deal of it.
I don’t entirely share your view of how social issues work in political terms. You seem to imply that political parties should merely follow the general flow of society and suggest that such legislation as is enacted is, by definition, reactive.
I don’t agree with this because I don’t think that’s how it works or how it’s perceived. Liberal or “liberal” Governments do work this way but, as we saw with Major, Conservative Governments have at times sought a moral framework for policy and have, indeed, sought to change the moral climate. It is this collision between increased social tolerance and the desire to provide a moral leadership that gets Tory Governments into trouble.
The public comments of Conservative Councillors in Bromley, for example, don’t, to me, represent a tacit acceptance of a gradual evolution. Rather, they are an attempt to re-write or undermine social legislation because it doesn’t fit within their moral framework. That strand of opinion is strong within the Tory Party and may be invigorated by a new generation of American-style religious activists.
In policy issues where the freedom of the individual is involved, such as hunting or a ban on smoking in public places, we have all too often seen conservatives back the freedoms of the minority against the perceived wishes of the majority. It is, perhaps, asking too much of Cameron to support the ban on hunting though he should be supporting the enforcement of the Act but I would be interested to hear him state a view on the ban on smoking in public places. It is a measure which I believe has overwhelming public support.
83/84. Thanks Max and BV. when were those seats previosly contested? In 2003?
87 - the Metropolitans were mostly contested in 2004 and the others in 2002, I think.
Max, I think the Lib Dems will lose about 50 seats overall. I think they’ll roughly stand still in London, and the non-Metropolitan boroughs, but will probably lose ground to Labour in the Metropolitan boroughs outside London.
I think Labour will also gain some seats from us in the Mets outside London, but will definitely lose ground to us in London and the non-Metropolitan boroughs.
AFAIK, Stodge, Cameron is opposed to a blanket ban on smoking in public places. As with hunting, opinion polls are not necessarily a good guide to the number of people who would actually switch their votes because of this particular issue.
88. ok, thanks. Not sure why I was thinking of 2003; I’ve to admit your local elections usually confuse me.
Now I’ve a stupid question: 1/3 of seats are up in some councils, does that mean that 1/3 of wards are up or that that 1 councillor in every 3 members wards (where there’re 2 members wards) is up?
85. Woody, I see you don’t read my posts
90 - it means 1 councillor in every 3-member ward is up. For many of the metropolitan boroughs, there was an all-up election in 2004 due to boundary changes, and the 3rd placed councillor in that election is up for reelection this time.
89 - Thanks Sean that was pretty much my take.
I think the mets could be a mixed bag - I’d hope to do well in North Tyneside, Bolton and maybe Bury but perhaps slip back in Walsall, Dudley and Trafford where we did quite well in 2004. Solhihull and Stockport could be interesting to see how the Con/LD battle is going. Unfortunately being up here I obviously don’t know too much about whats going on on the ground in these areas.
Tabman at 75: Yeah, I recall a Labour conference passing a resolution for “Peace, Properity and Progress” by 5 million votes to 250,000, and a delegate saying drily “Those of us who want war, poverty and reaction feel that 250,000 is quite a good start…”
Thanks to Anatole for his interesting analysis. The only thing is that it tacitly concedes more territory than I think Cameron is willing to do - he’s going beyond the ‘nice enough to vote for if you like their economics’ stage to seeking left-wing votes quite actively - articles for the Guardian, Geldof as an adviser (OK, Geldof is actually not left-wing, but you can’t see Howard bothering), etc. There will come a point where an issue arises on which he’ll need to sacrifice whatever gains he’s made in that area or seriously annoy more traditional supporters, and it’s not clear to me what he’ll do. But he’s got a fair amount of leeway, as I think most Tory members wlil put up with a lot if they think it might get them back in, just as Labour members put up with things they didn’t much like from Kinnock onwards.
91. oh, yes, the boundaty changes. I’ve forgotten about them: that’s why in some places they voted in 2003 and then in 2004 again.
That was confusing me big time (I suspected there was something behind it).
So in the end a councillor’s term is 4 years long, right? Please tell me I’m right, otherwise, I got confused again
4 years is correct, Andrea.
94 - “So in the end a councillor’s term is 4 years long, right?”
Normally - but, where boundary changes are involved, not always. In metropolitan authorities in 2004, each ward elected three councillors. The one who came first in the ballot gets a 4 year term, the second gets a 3 year term, the third gets a 2 year term. After that point, all terms are 4 years - until there are further boundary changes!
Max, a short while ago I’d have put down Solihull as almost certain to go to NOC and Richmond to go Lib Dem. With Cameron as leader, that may not now happen. Barnet is now probably our most vulnerable council, given the propensity of Conservatives there to leap over the edge of a cliff.
I’d expect us to win a majority of seats on North Tyneside, which will give us control of the council committees, but Labour will remain in charge because it has a Labour Mayor.
95. Thanks Sean Fear. When I started to become interested in British politics and I saw some councils were voting every 2 years, I thought councillors’ terms were 2 years long and I thought “well, it’s pretty short, not surprised by the low turnout for local elections, they’re always calling them back to vote again!”
90. Sorry Andrea. Missed that.
Re Labour seats 2005 vs 1983.
From a quick scan of the results in London, turnouts were in the mid 60s and now down to around 50%.
ON a typical constituency of around 65,00 voters that’s nearly 10,000 votes lost by Labour.
99. Woody, I’ve still to decide what your punishment will be………..
Many thanks to Mike and Robert for all their hard work in getting the site back up again
102 - Yes indeed!
By the way, Robert - will you be coming to the party on the 14th?
100. Tabman, have you compared the number of total votes got by Lab in those seats in 1983 to the ones got this time?
104 - Andrea, today’s challenge for you …
Are you at work today, Sean? I was surprised to find out we are “ages”.
105. Tabman, boundary changes have probably confused the situation.
Anyway is some seats, Lab seems to have got the same number of total votes got in 1983.
Much as we would all like to think we don’t have any prejudices against people who are overweight, losing a few pounds might in itself win Kennedy the odd vote. No-one would vote for him because he was thinner, of course. But one or two might find themselves a little more positively when they think about him as a potential prime minister and his policies.
And more importantly, it’d make him a bit more healthy.
plus of course, from a fellow cyclist, it’s a much more pleasant way to get from A to B, and for some short journeys it’s faster.
By the way Andrea, my train went through Peterborough yesterday. It made me think of you-know-who…
92, 97 - unfortunately Max and Sean, we are highly unlikely to win a majority on North Tyneside in 2006. Due to the way the seats in the “split wards” fall, there is probably only one seat that is winnable for us, which would put us on 29 out of 60. The following 2 years should be very good however, as we start to pick up the remaining Labour seats in the split wards.
Sean is right however, in that it’s all pretty irrelevant (other than from a morale point of view) who has the majority on the Council, given we have a Labour elected Mayor who will control the council no matter what.
If we can force Labour down to below 20 seats (1/3 of the council), then we can make it hard for him to get his budget through the council, but it doesn’t alter the day-to-day control.
Thanks David. I thought if you got Labour below one third, then you could block the Mayor’s budget. Surely, the Mayor would have no option but to work with you in that situation.
110 - Thanks David. Do you know if we have a chance of picking up any other seats in the Met areas of the North East - Sunderland perhaps. And who knows if Cameron mania sweeps the country we might even pick up a single seat in Newcastle! Then again . . .
109. Book Value, I think you should be happy not have seen the Venerable on that train. I know you couldn’t have kept your control
105- Tabman, I looked for at London seats, but I’ve it on excell. if you’re really interested, I could email them you.
Re. 107, I think you’re absolutely right. A lot of people think they shouldn’t be prejudiced against those who are overweight, but nonetheless are. Walking four and a half miles a day is a good way to lose weight, but I don’t suppose he’s got the time.
Andrea - please, to: bridgford_libdems at yahoo.co.uk
115. Sent, Tabman.
Btw, my post@113 was really bad….I shouldn’t re-read them to spot the mistakes, oh better, I should re-read earlier not to make mistake!
116 Andrea. Yuo shoud allways cheque spelin and grandma befour poostin ! … lyk wat I duz.
117. Jack, you’re WAlshMaN and I claim my 5 Euros!
And don’t make fun of me: otherwise you could get some pics of the Venerable Helen or the photo of Glenda Jackson naked!
Mike,
Can we have another thread on likely local election results, the last one when you were on holiday some months ago was vry informative.
118 Andrea. Your lucky to have me here
…. I’ve had to replan a few days in Herts !!
BTW while I’ve been away have the Tories become Socialist Lite !! What’s going on !! ….. and now the Great Unwashed aka Bob Geldof is flirting with the Tories … has the world gone mad ….. is Tabman now in UKIP ….. and are you now slavering over page 3 beauties …. what of Sean Fear and mi Lord Matlock, are they still in the Tories or have they defected to the Lib Dems ……… Oh my god my hands and face !!!!!! ….. hair everywhere …. I’m becoming a sandal muncher too.
Re. 67, 86, 93
I think that a potential party split is very unlikely because of the lack of ideology amongst the party grassroots, even in terms of social policy. I don’t believe that those who are conservative on social and family values necessarily want a future Tory administration to legislate on it, certainly not at the expense of economic and public service policies.
I don’t really believe that there is a parallel with Labour, who had to demonstrably abandon an ideological base (i.e. Socialism) in getting into power, rather than simply keep quiet about it as perhaps John Smith might have done. I have little doubt that Conservative party members will be far happier, in general, with a future Cameron administration even at its most liberal, than many Labour members have been with Blair. The only issue which could have caused real splits was Europe, which won’t be around; apart from that only the Left is ever bothered with cerebral concepts of politics. When you add the extra dose of pragmatism which has traditionally been existent (though some would no doubt say that it has been lacking in recent years), I don’t really see a break-away happening any more than in Labour – indeed significantly less so.
120. Jack, don’t forget Letwin trying to steal Campaign Group manifesto.
BTW I should also add, on the subject of social conservatism, that this is where Blair has real genius. When it comes down to politics in the House, he is without doubt fairly liberal. However, what matters to lots of centre-ground voters is that he himself is an upright family man regardless of his tolerance, and that is about as much moral leadership as the GBE generally want.
122 Andrea. What’s Oily Leafwig been upto ??
123.”However, what matters to lots of centre-ground voters is that he himself is an upright family man regardless of his tolerance, and that is about as much moral leadership as the GBE generally want. ”
the opposite of Major’s government with many members socially conservatives in the House, while behind the scenes too busy to enjoy Edwina’s attentions (Major), fathering a couple of children in and there (Time Yeo), kissing 20 year old men on holidays (Michael Brown), minister’s wives commintting suicide in despair at their husband relationships with other women (the Earl of Caithness),….. having “friendship” with a Commons researcher (Hartley Booth)
124. Jack, he has now became Oliver Leftwing after his claim the tories should redistribute wealth in the society.
Yes exactly. Blair managed a very clever line between the two oppositional ends of the spectrum in his campaign, and had to I guess, after the Major administration had made many people desire a return to some sort of morals.
126 Andrea. The Tories have gone mad !!!!!!!!!
You’ll be telling me next that Tabman is doing market research on site members.
128. Jack, Tabman is probably collecting those info just to denounce us to the High Command of Orange Booker.
I could start to ask you hospitality in the Jacobite Lands if Tabman and his followers will be able to discover where I live.
129 Andrea. Fear not Andrea ….. the rate the Tories are going, by the weekend, they’ll have swallowed up the Orange Bookers and in a great idealogical pincer movement they’ll have done for the SWP and the Commies by Tuesday !! ….. and then the Tories will declare that asylum is compulsory for all visitors and that the Labour party has betrayed the Working Class !! …… Con Gain Merthyr !! and Labour gain Beaconsfield !! ….. Lib Dems still in Bar Chart Land !!
These NuTories are becoming far too left wing for my taste !!
130. Jack, don’t panick. the situation will become dramatic only when the tories will start to attack Jeremy Corbyn from the Left and Peter Tatchell will aplly for the Tory Gold List, because afterall Lady Thatcher’s handbag was very fashion!
Jack, how does the Scottish Jacobite Party regard the prospect of Prince Charles becoming George VII? (or whatever his number would be as measured from when you decided to give up and support the Hanoverians)
Anatole at 121: A possibly interesting issue is energy. I see that Cameron’s adviser, Zac Goldsmith, whom he’s asked to develop the new policy, is strongly anti-nuclear. This directly contradicts current Conservative policy. Not a grassroots issue, but it’ll be interesting to see if Cameron goes along with Zac.
re 130. Could Cameron’s Clause 4 moment be…..Clause 4? The way things are going anything could happen.
132 book value. Should the Prince of Wales succeed then the Jacobite Party would recognise him as Charles IV as Prince Charles Edward Stuart became Charles III on the death of his father James III and VIII in 1768. Should Charles choose George then we would recognise him as George V of both England and Scotland. The first two Hanovarian Georges are disqualified.
To avoid confusion !! Perhaps one of Chaz’s other names would be better - Philip I or Arthur I of both England and Scotland. He might choose any name !!…… Andrea I
Should William succeed and retain William then problems arise !! Jacobites do not recognise the Prince of Orange - William III, so Prince William would be William IV of England and William II of Scotland !
Quite clear !!
Just to confuse matters the splitters, the Scottish Jacobite Party are Republicans !! ….. a complete contradiction !!
http://www.scottishjacobites.com
135 - “Just to confuse matters the splitters, the Scottish Jacobite Party are Republicans !!”
So are you the Jacobite Party of Scotland then?
136 book value. Certainly not ! We are THE Jacobite Party. Jacobitism was a British Isles movement … save for parts of West Bridgford and Beaconsfield !!
119 - I’d second that Bullseye. This years locals could be particularly relevant to the fate of both Blair and Charles Kennedy. My own view is its too late to change leaders before May and the results themselves could have a big impact.
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