Cash in on Kennedy toughing it out
January 6th, 2006
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Take the 6/1 that Charles will survive until May 1st
With the Lib Dem leader facing the threat of resignations from his Shadow Cabinet if he continues to hold onto his office one bookie is now taking bets on who will be leading the party on May 1st - the week of the local elections.
Favourite is Menzies Campbell at 5/4 with the price of 7/2 for Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten. Charles Kennedy comes fourth in the betting at 6/1.
Given Kennedy’s resilience and stubbornness we think that 6/1 is a good price and certainly worth the punt. For if there was a deal whereby he would go after the local elections then you would still end up as a winner.
A deal giving Kennedy the time to stay in office until May seems a possible compromise and would avoid a leadership ballot in the critical weeks ahead of the May 4th elections.
For the best cards are still in the leader’s hand. He’s staying put and he is making it very hard for those who want to push him aside. In addition there’s the huge uncertainty over of how the party’s members would vote in a national ballot.
All of this makes the May 1st survival bet at 6/1 seem a great price.
On the main next leader markets the money is going on Menzies Campbell again with the price tightening during the day.
Mike Smithson
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how can he go on even another week when most of his frontbench don’t support him? what’s he going to do - sack most of his frontbench (including all the great hopes for the future)?
Ladbokes held the price, even if they only did let me have £33.33. They are proving to be a much better firm than Hills—at least you can get something on.
Well, the truly ghastly “Lady” Tonge masde sure that she thanked the person who nominated her for the upper house.
As for the Gidley creature, that monosyallabic monotone will haunt my memory every time I go near Waitrose, or will I?
There is nothing like a focus……… (apologies to Rogers and Hammerstein)
Personally I suspect Kennedy quits tonight. He should have resigned last year, when he realised the tide was against him. “All political careers end in failure” remains as true as it ever was.
Radio 5 live report that Kennedy’s office has said in the last 2 minutes that he will not resign in any way shape or form.
I can’t agree with that. Kennedy is a dead-duck and it would be a disaster for the liberal democrats to keep him there until the local elections in May.
My guess is he will withdraw from the leadership contest within the next 48 hours allowing Ming Campbell and Mark Oaten to come forward.
Does anyone agree with me that in this current climate of young political leaders that the selection of either Hughes or Campbell would be negative and someone like Mark Oaten or David Laws or Nick Clegg be a more positive choice?
The Beeb is quoting Kennedy as having said he ‘will not resign in any way shape or form’ a few moments ago. Surely he’s deluded??
Radio 5 live - 20 MPs are to send a letter to CK saying they will resign their posts or not accept any offers to fill vacant posts. This must be the end.
David 2. £33 is all I could get on as well. Still - that’s £200 if he does it - not bad.
I think 25-1 would be more realistic odds, to be honest. The Sunday papers are going to be hideous.
Oh, the joy of watching a political party implode.
And all this has come about because of one highly polished and slick speech to the Tory Party conference in Blackpool!
11 - I realise some Tories might find this hard to believe, but it’s not really all about you.
Bob-had CK’s conference speech been as visionary, highly polished and slick, I doubt we would be where we are. Cameron seems to have scared the Lib Dems into action, but I can’t give him credit for starting it.
If 20 MPs are in the open, my best guess is that CK to go down in a no confidence vote on Weds is it?
And I hadn’t thought you could get negative scores on the prediction, so i said 52 weeks. Always 2007…..
12 - and this would have still happened had David Davis become leader? (The mere thought sends a shiver down the spine)
btw. William Hill with give you the same price on him being there by the 30th April, if the few days help tempt anyone. You cartainly may want to double up your bets.
Speak to us in a Year Bob.
He will quit tonight.
Well Stephen, you are not exactly backwards in coming forward about everyone else.
Everyone who has ever been at the receiving end of the oh so nice Lib dem machine will find this amusing. This will include, Conservatives Labour, Plaid and SNP.
This does look increasingly like it’s breaking into a straight fight between the members at large and their Parliamentary representatives.
The rebels are beginning to look vicious and panicky; what backlash are they going to get from their associations this weekend?
And Kennedy is beginning to look a bit lonely. Where are the pledges of support from Westminster colleages?
BBC poll is now roughly 60/40 againt CK…
20, Not saying that the poll is wrong or implausible, but those polls sometimes show that Cherie Blair is worse than a killer and that the tories are less popular than the Greens.
18, indeed. Not CK’s personal problem which is of course very sad, but the way it’s been handled is a farce.
Surely a sitting leader being openly rejected by a third of his parliamentary party is some sort of record in British politics?
I still think a Lib Dem split is a major risk…perhaps Kennedy will be inviting his final handful of followers onto the front at Brighton (or the terrace of the House of Commons bar) to address them with a megaphone (glass in other hand of course), like the good Doctor….
Kennedy has clearly decided to go to the membership where he stands a reasonable chance of success. So his his Shadow cabinet go on strike: so he is defeated in a confidence motion by the parliamentary party: all this matters not.
Kennedy’s strategy is to tough it out and so far it is working. If they do get him to agree to stand down it will be on his terms.
My views on CK are well-known - but by golly I admire the resolute way he is dealing with this crisis.
If they cannot get him to resign who is going to stand against him a membership ballot?
This is certainly worth 6/1.
20, But i am sure an LD bar chart of that data would show CK winning here…
He’s a gonna, if not by tomorrow then by the end of the week. Those have you who have put money on him surviving have lost it. Remember this article was written before these recent resignation threats. If by some miracle he does survive, he won’t be able to form a shadow cabinate as those who haven’t threatened to resign will not want to replace those who have. His position is completely hopeless.
Yes I think for a change Mike is wrong here…6/1 are poor odds for me.
21. It’s not so much the poll figure as the direction of movement. It’s just one more thing that’s adding to the momentum and the whole thing is feeding on itself. I can’t agree with Mike on the headline subject. If Kennedy wants to be stubborn he can be, but the damage it will do the party will surely make itself felt to party members providing they have someone else to vote for. That said, I suspect the Lib Dems is rather more resiliant than some posters are giving them credit for. There’s only been one genuine party split since 1945 and I’d expect it to stay that way. That’s not to say that the new leader won’t have difficulties with recalcitrants.
If there’s one lesson that we Tories have learnt the hard way it’s that once the disloyalty genie is out of the bottle, it doesn’t go back easily.
2The Beeb is quoting Kennedy as having said he ‘will not resign in any way shape or form’ a few moments ago. Surely he’s deluded??”
Or pissed.
Mike,
I don’t agree, if he is defeated in a confidence motion and his shadow cabinet is opposed to him, just watch as people abandon their loyalty and stand. If I was a lib dem shadow minister now, I’d be waiting a few days and then going in for the kill.
Are you going to max out William Hill’s 6/1 on him being their by April 30th - £333.33 limit.
I agree with Fred. Kennedy will be gone by Wednesday next week at the latest. Can you imagine PMQ’s. TB will be desperate to get in the retort to CK, which is how can you question my judgements/authority (depending on the question he asks) when so many of your own front bench spokesman no longer back you. He will look like a laughing stock. However the bet might work if the Lib Dems decide to go for the long drawn out process. But either way CK will effectively through in the towel by Wednesday evening next week whatever.
As Andrea says - voodoo polls are pretty much worthless as a way of mesuring public opinion. (1) They draw a sample from only people watching that tv programme/buying that newspaper/visiting that website, (2) they make no attempt to make that sample representative (not that they really could anyway), (3) they are entirely self-selecting, and phone-in or press the red button to vote polls have an active dis-incentive for people who don’t care deeply to vote, since they cost money, (4) in many cases there is nothing preventing multiple votes, and certainly nothing preventing organised voting.
Frankly, until some proper polls are published no one outside of polling companies has any reliable way of knowing how much public support there is for Kennedy and, IMHO, by the time there are any polls published he’ll probably be gone.
Local Ashford Association meeting last night. Almost unanimous feelings that CK must go. I mentioned that I thought the membership at large would, suicidally in my opinion, voted CK in on a ballot. Motion was resolved to convince our members and the members of other associations to vote for A N Candidate.
I am not letting my chances of eventually become an MP or my associations chances of picking up council seats be blown because CK is bloody minded!
there is no way blair or cameron would sink as low .. no words need to be said. anyway, kennedy won’t be lib leader by next wednesday.
28.”It’s not so much the poll figure as the direction of movement.”
I usually don’t trust those polls even about direction of movement. UKIP and a Tory MEP were able to rig one of them about who’s the most powerfull man in UK.
Points 3 and 4 do not apply to the Sky poll.
Furthermore, whilst the exact poll results are hardly reliable, I don’t think it’s correct to completely disregard the trend in movement against CK over the last few hours.
24: Mike, with all the resolve in the world, it looks like the only way CK can get a Shadow cabinet together is to slimline it down to loyalists, giving Lembit Opik 6 jobs etc.
While this could be very effective given the last weeks, how powerful will this team be against other parties making the most of Lib Dem disunity? And if many mps are openly against their leader, they may put little into campaigning for May elections both out of apathy and hoping a poor result might finish CK off.
CK is a man of mighty resolve, and many would have crumbled by now in his position. Unless he can run a minority administration in his own party, he needs to persuade the front-bench doubters fast. And the media will probably scupper any chances of doing that.
27, I agree. Two months of this would absolutely kill the Lib Dems. If CK stays on, what on earth do all the MPs who’ve called for him to go do? If they resign then they’re left with a party without a front bench, if they don’t they look silly, weak and pathetic.
I’d quite happily take bets on CK staying at 6-1, if he stays on till the local elections the comedy value alone will be worth the pay out.
what would be in it for kennedy to die a long lingering political death by staying on til may? would you? i wouldn’t.
David G, I agree. For once I think Mike Smithson has it wrong and there is no way CK can hold on. I’d want 30-1 at least.
35. Even if the ‘poll’ is entirely meaningless as a scientific exercise, (and I’d argue that it’s not quite that), it still has some relevance if it affects people’s opinions and actions.
25 I had hoped that we would have avoided talk of Bar Charts.
Having too much to drink shouldn’t be a hanging offence but the rules are different for someone in Charles’ position - I am sorry but he has to go soon or he will damage the party. Someone he trusts will be surely telling him this quietly over the weekend.
3 and 4 do apply to a Sky poll - it costs 10p (or whatever) to vote using the red button, and there is nothing preventing organised voting.
Even movement in these polls is meaningless, since different people vote at different times of the day. If people who don’t work during the day are more likely to support Kennedy than (looks at the time) people taking a half-day, or sixth form students coming home, then you’d see opinion change simply because the demographics of people voting changes.
“Having too much to drink”. Hmmmm.
David H - sadly very true.
Re the 6/1 and limited amounts being taken, Ladbrokes are likely to take more if you ‘phone them up as they have lower limits for website transactions. You can also get more on by going into a Ladbrokes shop - again they will take up to £50 and have to ‘phone anything else through but you should get a second £50 approved.
However, personally I think he’s finished and wouldn’t go near 6/1 even with other people’s money.
The poll on the website is free and I cannot seem to vote twice; I was under the impression that this is the only (or main?) source of votes - I may be wrong if it is also done via television / phone.
Considering half of the voting electorate is above 50, I think Menzies Campbell would be a good 2009 candidate just on the basis of contrasting with Cameron´s pubescence. He´s also an excellent brain and has tied the likes of Paxman in knots beautifully. He has something that Cameron and maybe even Brown lack: stature. Clarke Tories you know where to come now!
Perusing over the CVs of the young, up-and-comers, there are some very impressive candidates for the future (David Laws, Ed Davey). One candidate that doesn´t fall into this camp is Mark Oaten - that guy has hardly taken a breath outside of politics in his life and Watford poly doesn´t exactly impress. It goes without saying that Lembit Opik is not TV-friendly and I can assure you it gets worse in the flesh (no matter how admirable is pulling may be). Huhne and Clegg maybe for another day when up to speed.
Where does that leave Hughes and Cable - are they the David Davis candidates?
Personally I think that 6/1 on Kennedy staying is actually a bit stingy. I would maybe get interested at tens.
Next leader odds
Campbell 13/8
Hughes 2/1
Clegg 6/1
Oaten 8/1
Davey 9/1
If you mean the Sky pol on their website, then obviously there isn’t a charge to vote (though it does make it rather more subsceptible to organised voting)
Sky also do a poll to vote on through your digital TV which I thought you meant. I think they are separate, though I can’t be bothered to check.
As said previously, Ed Davey is where my money is going.
Ha, me neither.
Why would CK go through all the pain and drama of last night, only to resign today?
He’d be bonkers, his position is far stronger than many realise, although I agree that in the end he is toast I think he can go at the time and in the manner of his own choosing.
He has raised and raised the stakes and I think he has got the determination to outstare his opponents.
As I said on the other thread, his biggest gamble was last night, personally, what has he got to lose now by holding on? Answer - nothing.
http://www.guardian.co.uk now saying that Lib Dem frontbenchers will be making a statement at 17:45.
Chris Took - given your ambitions with the LD is that because you WANT it to be Davey or you really think it will be Davey?
To me Davey makes the most sense for the LDs but I think they’ll go with Ming for a few years first.
Oh dear, surely 60ish-1 not 6-1. And what can you do to change your position / bail out once the money is on?
Marcus - have a look at Andrew George’s resignation letter in the Guardian. Once the wider membership read that, CK won’t be winning any leadership vote.
btw I can see only the last digit of the post numbers. Anyone else with this problem?
Martin - it only happens with Internet Explorer
54.”www.guardian.co.uk now saying that Lib Dem frontbenchers will be making a statement at 17:45.”
Always at 17:45, is it the only hour known by the LD?
Anyway, I would have never expected all this happining so soon….with all due respecte for LD posters, but it’s such a mess!
JH - Of those I have met on a one to one basis I found Ed to be the best when it comes to sustaining an argument and working the crowd. I have never met Ming but would not be unhappy if he got the top job as I have found him impressive both on television and at conference.
The LibDems aren’t imploding, Charles Kennedy’s leadership is dying, that is not the same thing. IDS’s death agony signified the salvation of the Tories not their demise, so I would caution some of the posters here to hold back on their hysteria.
Kennedy is toast, even if he survives a no confidence vote and no-one challenges him he will have lost the support of such a high proportion of his MPs that he will not able able to long continue. My guess is that even in those circumstances he could only limp on till the Summer.
This is tragic, he has done some great things for the party and I dearly wish it hadn’t come to this. I’ve no time for people like the useless Sandra Gidley & Nick Harvey and insane Jenny Tonge who have never done anything worthwhile in their time in Parliament. My choice would have been for Kennedy to continue but the weight of opposition is such that he really can’t go on. I only wish Kennedy had taken the revolver quietly when it was offered to him at Christmas.
Andrea - timed to hit the 6 oclock news. All parties do it.
CK should have gone yesterday. That’s what’s caused the “mess” as you put it.
56. Tabman, Andrew George was deeply un-impressive yesterday on Sky.
Btw, why hasn’t he said the same things yesterday on Sky?
JH - In full answer to your question, I think it will be Ming
63. Oh, Tabman, I get just Sky, so I forgot about the 6 o’clock news thing.
Anyway I suppose if they do their statement at 7:30 PM, nothing would change.
Amen, OBL at 42
Comments fixed. Phew.
Icarus - if you really think ‘having too much to drink’ is the same thing as alcoholism you are disturbingly ignorant.
Chris Took - thanks for your reply. I can empathise with your position - if I was a budding young LD (and I suppose in some way I could have been) I’d very much want Davey too.
A personal statement by the whole of the front bench?
Surely they cant all ………
Tabman, I have read the letter as you suggest and all I can say is, what an unpleasant bunch of backstabbing hypocrites his Parliamantary colleagues are.
Orange Book Liberal, your likening of this farce to the IDS situation is off beam.
With IDS there was an orchestrated and very carefully planned coup plot devised (apparently) with the tacit acknowledgement, if not open help, of the whips office to rid the party of a leader whom it is now widely accepted had little support in or out of Westminster and who had been in office for a couple of (fairly disasterous) years.
In your case your leader is immensely popular in the country at large (more so than the party?), and liked by his members with a reasonable track record.
That makes this situation for you much closer to the matricide we undertook against Mrs T in 1990 - the repercussions of which have lasted for nearly 15 years.
I must admit, despite being a stauch CK supporter, that’s it now.
Still I’ve made a load of money being wrong about him… better to be lucky than good as they say.
Think I’ll spend it on Davey.
71- Icarus, it’s not the frontbenchers, but the real Commons front bench which is going to speak (with Harry Potter and Hermione sat on it).
ok, I know it’s a really bad joke.
One thought - no one is standing against CK now, probably in the belief that if they are seen as bringing him down that will scupper their chances.
But - could the opposite happen. Could CK look so much in trouble that the first one to move (Hughes?) could be really backed by the MPs thanked for the doing the job of stopping the Party look like idiots?
Just another viewpoint…not necessarily my own.
I’m not tempted by these 6;1 odds at all. He will have resigned by next weekend at the latest. it is simply impossible for him to carry on. I think Campbell is looking more and more strong now.
8/1 now…
Taylor: “for his own health, Kennedy should step down”
Taylor looked like he was crying.
I don’t think 6/1 is a good price. BBC say 19 frontbenchers call for him to go. That doesnt leave many!
I’m at work, no radio/TV access - was there a press statement at 17:45?
It’s about to be made, apparently. Norman Baker has also just explicitly called for Kennedy to resign.
25 signatures on a no confidence letter including 19 front benchers. If he doesn’t go he will face and lose a vote of no confidence. He cannot survive. Frankly for Rik to attack the rebels is ridiculous. CK’s behaviour is and has been disgraceful. No apology for the effect of his drunkenness on the conduct of his duties. Why should anyone feel sorry for someone who refuses to accept accountability for his actions. Now he’s asking the membership to put pressure on his colleagues to back off. The LD MPs have no choice now but to vote him down. It serves him right.
Charlie could do all their jobs on his own. They’ll none of them be missed. What exactly is it that they do again? I bet more people in this country can speak Japanese than can name the holders of the top five positions in this shadow-shadow cabinet.
83 - nice try, Charlie.
I am no fan of Kennedy, but I sticks to his guns.
He should recognise that the backstabbers do not reflect the membership at large. They are nasty pieces of work and even if he thinks he can’t stay, he should not make it easy for them and ensure those that wield the knives also fall of their knives.
CORRECTION:
I am no fan of Kennedy, but I HOPE HE sticks to his guns.
He should recognise that the backstabbers do not reflect the membership at large. They are nasty pieces of work and even if he thinks he can’t stay, he should not make it easy for them and ensure those that wield the knives also fall of their knives.
Lynne Featherstone is one of the rebels according to Sky
Assuming he does go, who is the best bet to take over the job?
Printz - so the LD MPs are not within their rights to ask for a leader who a) is not an alcoholic b) is not an alocholic who has relapses c) can remember his own tax policy d) turns up to key events instead of being hungover e) does not refuse treatment for alcoholism f) does not lie to most of them and the public at large g) does not hold them to ransom over his position by trying to evoke sympathy from the membership (from whom the MPs have been keeping his little secrets - for his sake)?
John Cleese?
On to more pressing political questions, and I wonder what colour curtains Cameron will have up in No 10?
Green ones?
Perhaps he will go for no curtains at all.
It’s curtains for Charlie and the LDs now anyway….
If he doesn’t go will the rebels resign the whip? Take the Tory whip? It’ll be much more fun for neutrals if he tries to carry on.
Sky:
10 Mps will support CK in a leadership contest
14 MPs won’t support him
8 don’t know
16 no comment
90 - I suppose that is in the bounds of possibility, but he doesn’t appear on the Betfair list!
89
That said, its not such a big presentational leap to make for CK to accuse the rebels of trying to hold the membership to ransom. He has, after all, (he can say) done the fairest thing: thrown it open to the members.
Then the members won’t mind if everyone in Westminster informs them of the details of the “worst kept secret” so they can judge him on the truth.
Completely OT, but today’s featured article on Wikipedia is an excellent one on the theory of voting systems:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system
jp - The longer the contest lasts the more it favours candidates with an agenda (other than their own promotion!). I predict a long contest would see the Orange Bookers triumph, maybe on some ‘dream ticket’. A short one and the recognition factor will dominate, and we’ll get Ming or Hughes.
97. BV to stay OT, have you seen that Gorgeous George has came out as a Barrymore’s fan?
Btw, he has already discovered the “fake” celebrities.
99 - Btw, he has already discovered the “fake” celebrities.
I’m sure that’s been an ego boost for him!
“Michael, I salute your…”
According to Sky, Goldsworthy and Farron are among the rebels.
100. ops, BV, I think the fake celebrity is just one. Not that the rest…..
101. Add Adrian Sanders (always according to Sky)
100. Haha, very good.
Kennedy is going to be dragged kicking and screaming down the hall by half the front bench and shoved unceremoniously out of the door.
The members will never forgive the MP’s whose behaviour they just don’t understand.
Everyone will blame everyone else for a poor result in May.
The loyalists will blame the rebels, the rebels will blame Kennedy.
The Lib dems will settle on an ‘interim’ leader who will be saddled with a split party, and a fractious and scheming front bench determined to position themseleves to take over.
It will be ‘OK’ to be disloyal for years now, ‘how can you criticise members for disloyalty when the frontbench have been so outrageous,’ they will say.
It’s like watching a train crash happening before your eyes in slow motion.
Martin Horwood and Stephen Williams too.
marcus - face it mate, you lost to the liberal democrats fair and square. get over it! move on! your gloating is really toe-curling.
Never seen so much excitement since those happy days after the merger vote, when the new party couldn’t cobble together a provisional policy statement or even a name without splitting the MPs and the bailiffs were at the door of Cowley Street….Happy days.
Just had list on News 24- Willot, Clegg, Browne, Goldsworthy, Rogerson, Charmichael are among those not yet mentioned.
Also Brake, Harris.
On ITV News, ‘…most of his Cabinet turn against him’. Have I been dreaming since the exit poll at 10pm on May 5th last year? Have I just woken up to an LD government?
I cannot believe the man is prepared to make such a mockery of his party.
Meanwhile Ming is tightening…
Julian, it is HOW his MPs have behaved that makes them backstabbers, not the issues that you raise.
Marcus sums it up perfectly. The membership will not forgive those MPs and the party will be divided.
Who among the frontbencher remained loyal?
I suppose Lembit Öpik, any others?
Just watching Points West (local news here) and Stephen Williams MP says he wants Ming to step in until the elections in May then have a contest.
Also said thay he was a supporter until yesterday, but had been told that the party had had these assurances about going dry before, and that somebody with the illness could not be leader. Also that he had known and basically covered it up.
Davey is the new ringleader apparently. His price hasn’t moved yet though.
116.”he was a supporter until yesterday, but had been told that the party had had these assurances about going dry before, and that somebody with the illness could not be leader. Also that he had known and basically covered it up.”
and now what has suddenley woken him up?
The letter was authored by Davey and Teather, with the other 23 subscribing to it.
How have they stabbed him in the back? They’ve been trying to get him to seek help for a very long time, and as he refused have been trying to get him to make a dignified departure. He’s obdurately insisted on continuing on his messy road until the internal attempts to get him to see sense were leaked.
Hardly “Et tu Brute?” stuff.
or should I say “Et tu Mark Oaten?”?
The Liberal Democrat party was born out of treachery. Look how David Steel and the Liberals stitched up David Owen and the SDP.
They said the continuing SDP was undemocratic because a majority voted for merger. Since when was it undemocratic to remain in the party of ones choice?
Treachery is in the DNA of the Lib Dems. You only need to look at their local election filth as an example.
118- it seemed he had spoken to the ringleaders of the rebellion who had given him, what he called, some new facts.
This is basically all of the 2005 intake isn’t it? Rowan, Hemming (our favourite), Alexander, Burt haven’t signed it, but can’t think of many others.
Here in the West, the 3 newest MPs David Laws, Stephen Williams, Jeremy Browne signed, with the 3 older members, David Heath, Don Foster and Steve Webbe, not.
I don’t think the frontbench generally have been disloyal. Few of them can have realistic leadership ambitions and their actions are definitely in the collective interests of the party. They have approached him and cajoled him in private to give up an untenable position and in doing so have sought to protect his dignity and that of the party. His grasping and unrealistic determination to stay put has forced their hand and the current mess is his fault.
The long-term damage done may be nowhere near as bad as some posters suggest if he resigns promptly.
120. Julian, frankly, the behaviour of some those MPs is not very good. If he isn’t fit now that he is an openly alcoholic, he wasn’t fit when he was an alcoholic in the closet too. They knew it and the likes of Teather and friends haven’t complained too much.
Maybe you’re right that they aren’t real backstabbers, but why haven’t they openly crititicezed him in the last weeks of 2005? Don’t tell they haven’t done not to damage the party, because they’ve leaked all their stuffs anyway.
Mike at 24. For once I don’t agree with a single sentence in your post……..
You say that even with half his party on strike he still stands a reasonable chance of success!! How do you work that out? I’d say under those circumstances he stands none.
You say toughing it out is working! He had eleven MP’s questioning his leadership before he ‘toughed it out’ now he has everyone except for Lembic Opic!
You say if he leaves it will be on his terms! What terms? Free whisky for a year?
You say you respect the resolute way he’s dealing with this crisis! If he’d shown resolution he would have resigned immediately and might have avoided humiliating himself his family and his party.
You imply that if he holds out he’s sure to win unopposed in a members ballot; I doubt it. If they can’t get him to resign a stalking horse like Susan Kramer will probably stand against him.
And finally you say it’s got to be worth 6 to 1! I don’t think it’s good value at 60 to 1.
But there again I’m usually wrong……!!
Julian wrote:
How have they stabbed him in the back? They’ve been trying to get him to seek help for a very long time, and as he refused have been trying to get him to make a dignified departure. He’s obdurately insisted on continuing on his messy road until the internal attempts to get him to see sense were leaked.
Hardly “Et tu Brute?” stuff.
Reply:
If public humiliation and sly briefings against the leader isn’t backstabbing then what is?
And if they were co-conspirators in hidding from the public, Kennedy’s problem, they too have been dishonest.
If they aren’t happy with Kennedy, then there are proper procedures to challenge for the leadership. That would involve being open and not cowardly. He who wields the sword invariably falls on it, so that might involve a courage of conviction.
Because publicly criticising him does damage to the party (and CK) - from what we are now led to believe, these people were hoping that CK would privately be persuaded to step down, given his “health problem”.
It’s now become clear exactly why all these odd rumours about lack of parliamentary support have sporadically come out over the last 6-8 months.
115 - yes Nosepik is loyal, and few seem to have picked up on my suggestion that the - now 50/1 - odds on him represent great value. Especially in the STV way lib dens Opik their leaders…
BTW - ladbrokes have closed the market - dunno what that says, but someone must think they in danger of losing lots of dosh…
bally eric at 107 - your post perfectly illustrates what is wrong with Liberal democrats. Anybody who points out something you don’t like gets an insult for their efforts instead of a reasoned reply.
6-1 are terrible odds. He’ll be gone by the end of the weekend.
328. Juliam, they were continuing leaking their briefings against him. “Senior Backbencher said…”, “LD Frontbancher thinks….” They’ve damaged the party anyway (not saying CK hasn’t done it too in the last few hours).
If they wanted to keep it private, they shouldn’t have leaked it. If they wanted to leak it, they should have the courage to reveal their names.
131. Marcus, I think he’s a Labourite.
Fair enough, yes, they could have provided their names. But it’s a very puritanical man who says that within the Westminster environment one should never speak to the press anonymously.
I love it when you keep seeing and hearing front bench LD’s saying ‘this is a time for quiet reflection … but I think etc, etc.” \if they really want ‘quiet reflection’ why do they pop up all over the media?
Watching Channel 4 News is painful. He really has to go now. The sunday papers are probably going to have to print an extra supplement about it to try and contain their glee.
I’m afraid that the typical response of LibDems when things go wrong is to attack somebody else - LibDem posters (of which I was one when I started on the board, but now have switched) should realise that their party’s problems are not the fault of Rik or Marcus. They are commenting with the same freedom that everybody commented (at great length) on the Tory troubles of IDS and then the recent Leadership election.
CK has done more than just split the LibDems - he’s split my dinner table with my wife and I now on opposite sides!
135. I’m not puritanical! I know it’s done in this way and always will be.
I just find “weird” that briefing in the dark of Westminster corridors is almost applauded, while MPs openly disagreeing are usually almost insulted.
BTW, I remember getting shot down in flames by some Lib Dems when I suggested there was more to the manifesto tax launch disaster than Kennedy just being kept awake by a new born baby. Wish I could be bothered to find the thread.
139. Yuh, but the whispers do more for the fun of it.
He can’t carry on with 25 of his MPs wanting him to step down.
Isn’t Jenny Tonge loathsome though?
141. Oh,Julian, I agree about the fun of the whispers
142. Sean Fear. I think Jenny Tonge is just Jenny Tonge. A sort of Libdem version of Clare Short.
I’m not a Liberal and never have been. I just can’t stand gloating and recall little of it when Rik and Marcus were thrashed (by Liberal Democrats) at the last election.
Bally eric, have you read any of my posts today? How can you say we are gloating? Rik and I have a special interest in the Lib Dems and clearly have a great deal more at stake than some posters but honestly I am not gloating.
I reserve might rights, though.
I might gloat, just a little, if there is a messy leadership contest, especially if Simon Hughes wins it.
And if you want to know about unpleasant gloating you should read some of the posts left on my weblog on May 6th from jubilant local Lib Dems.
ok, fair enough. i hate the libs too.
Those Liberal Democrat MPs have shown their true colours: they are YELLOW.
Sean at 142. Remember Charlie sacked her because of her ’suicide bomb comment’. Like they say ‘Revenge is a dish best served cold’ or if you prefer ‘Hell hath no fury……..’!!
cont…..Or even better….the Spanish saying which I first heard used in relation to Ted Heath and Maggie T;
“If you sit by the river long enough the body of your enemy will come floating by”
146-”i hate the libs too”
“hating” your opponents isn’t good! A sane dislike is better
Ha, Roger, I prefer the second one
Crikey, isn’t this great fun?
I think that a note of gloat is quite noticeable among some of the Tories here, Marcus. But it’s unwise to celebrate too soon - I think the public see this as CK’s problem much more than the party’s, and either he overcomes everything and emerges triumphant and battle-hardened (unlikely, IMO), or the LibDems get a leadership contest with the opportunity to show off their people, which as we’ve just seen can be very useful.
What do people expect the next polls to show? I’d expect a moderate LibDem dip (16%?), nothing too dramatic, with the Tory lead building up a bit (6%?). It’ll be important to lok at the details to see how much it’s certainty to vote that’s influencing the headline - even more than party sympathy, this will at present be an unreliable long-term indicator, especially for the LibDems.
And yes, if he’s still there for PMQ, neither TB nor DC will rub it in. Non-LibDems have never had anything much against CK personally, and he’ll have a fair amount of sympathy.
Ed Davey and Sarah Teather were the key signatiories, followed by
Norman Baker
Tom Brake
Jeremmy Browne
Alistair Carmichael
Nick Clegg
Tim Farron
Jenny Featherstone
Andrew George
Sandra Gidley
Julia Goldsworthy
Evan Harris
Nick Harvey
Martin Horwood
Chris Huhne
Norman Lamb
David Laws
John Pugh
Dan Rogerson
Adrian Sanders
Jo Swinson
Matthew Taylor
Stephen Williams
Jenny Willott
Doesn’t this remind anyone of the Jeremy Thorpe resignation? When he had to be thrown out kicking and screaming?
Why do people accuse the 25 of being backstabbers? They’re frontstabbers. Since CK dared them so to do by waving a giant ‘V’ sign at his Parliamentary colleagues he can hardly complain. His friends, including Lembit Opik, would be best employed talking some sense into him over the week-end. Since he has admitted alcoholism it will be open season in the Sundays on stories of mine’s a double etc. He can hardly sue now.
149-”“If you sit by the river long enough the body of your enemy will come floating by” ”
Unless you’re Major waiting for the result of Billericay coming in!
256.”Why do people accuse the 25 of being backstabbers?”
Have the people who briefed against him (and leaked all to the press) in the last weeks of 2005 revealed their names then?
What’s happened to Ed Davey’s eyebrows?
25MPs and rising. I predict it will be 32 by the end of the day.
259. Not seen him today, but they certainly can be worse than Simon Hughess face movements (or lack of it in some parts)!
The 25 are basically blackmailing Kennedy.
They are saying resign or we will undermine your authority. Blackadder would be more honourable. Instead of being underhand, why can’t they be honourable and put forward some names of candidates? They say bullies like to work in groups.
The likes of Lembit Opik should come up smelling of roses in the eyes of the public after Kennedy has gone.
Andrea I think we can assume that some of them at least are among the 25! Rik accused the letter writers of being backstabbers and I don’t think they are. Matthew Taylor was CK’s campaign manager for the leadership and he signed it. If you had had to cover up for CK’s erratic behaviour among your Party workers for literally years you might have briefed against him. If he had listened to the critics he could have gone with a lot of dignity last night. There wouldn’t have been a dry eye in the house. Now he has one last chance before Monday mrning or he’ll be thrown out.
353.”And yes, if he’s still there for PMQ, neither TB nor DC will rub it in. Non-LibDems have never had anything much against CK personally, and he’ll have a fair amount of sympathy. ”
uhm, yes. I’m pretty sure neither of them will “attack” personally Kennedy about his problems.
Hopefully Con and Lab backbenchers will keep it quiet too. I hope Skinner will manage to keep his mouth closed this time.
353. Blue Moon. I don’t have issues with the all 25 signing the letters. Just with those who briefed against him behind the scenes and then leaked their briefings anonymously.
But then again as Julian said we all love behind the scenes plots.
152 - What rubbish. The issue is whether Kennedy is fit to be leader, not whether there is a specific person who would be better. They may also, for example, think Ming Campbell (or Mark Oaten who knows?) might be a better leader and know that they will not stand until Kennedy goes.
155. To be honest I’m realizing Julian was right to say I’m too puritanical….it’s the normal way to do these things anyway, so I shouldn’t complain. And then if they would have done it against someone I dislike, I wouldn’t be too much bothered.
Uhm, I’m start to disagree with myself. It’s worrying!
The only people who have created this crisis are the backstabbers.
Okay so Kennedy was lacking in charisma and the party wasn’t making enough headway, but this matter could have been handled in a proper and decent way by using proper procedures.
The implosion of the party and a collapse in support into single digits is being brought about by the traitors.
What we have is a situation where the membership and the Lib Dem voters will feel betrayed.
A sudden surge in support of Kennedy will result in him having an axe in his back and a far less popular leader who will be seen as an assassin. The party will be split from top to toe.
167. I got the comments’ numbers wrogn again. It should be 165.
Do you talk like a Mills and Boone novel Printz or is it just the way you write?
170. Roger, what is a Mills and Boone novel? Are they writers? what type of novels do they write?
168 - “proper procedures” - proper procedures are to call a vote of no confidence, which has effectively happened. They gave him a chance to pre-empt them and go with dignity, but he failed to take the chance.
Mills and Boon are the best-known publishing imprint for slushy romantic novels.
I do write novels Roger and I thank you for your compliments on my writing style.
273. Ah, thanks. Observer. Novels like Rosamunde Pilcher’s books?
as more comes out about kennedys behaviour and the fact that others have tried to persuade him to get help the membership will turn against him.
First example the weblog of Peter Black AM in south Wales previously a loyalist within 24 hours he has changed and says Kennedy is untenable as leader.
Just seen Nick Clegg on tv saying he has been talking to local party members and they want kennedy to go….but then Nick is very ambitious…
176.”as more comes out about kennedys behaviour and the fact that others have tried to persuade him to get help”
I suppose it’s not that easy to accept the problem and seek help.
Andrea at 170. Romantic fiction popular with elderly women. Known for their flowery language…… ‘heaving bosoms’ and ‘anguished souls’
178. Thanks Roger. Btw, I accuse you a couple of days ago to change your mind too easly…today I did it the same and in the same thread!
But he was right to sack her, Roger. She is a twerp of the first order.
Robert Smithson The lefthand margin in IE is cutting off the numbers so that 88 looks like 38 and 117 looks like 17.
Still Ok on FFox.
Apologies if this has already been reported but posts are so fast that