The money goes on Ming
January 7th, 2006
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Will he be returned uncontested?
After this afternoon’s dramatic resignation from the Lib Dem leadership by Charles Kennedy the money has been going on the 64 year old ex-international sprinter, Sir Menzies Campbell to win the contest to replace him.
Just two hours after Kennedy’s announcement the best bookmaker price available on Campbell was 8/15 with 0.51/1 being available on Betfair.
Campbell is the only person to formally declare his candidature and has received endorsements by a number of senior colleagues. He is helped by a number of factors:-
Will Campbell do it? As David Davis will tell you being the front runner is not always an advantage but my bets on Campbell, placed at nearly 2/1 this morning, look good. In fact I could cash them in now at a nice profit.
Mike Smithson
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Well all the rebels - the young, orange bookers seem to be backing Campbell. I am not sure how good Campbell would be or not.
Can anyone tell me what Campbell’s politics are - is he an orangebooker, a sandle wearer or in the middle?
IG binary is buy at 56 sell at 50. So if I have it right £1 on Ming could win you £44 if he gets it or lose £56 if he doesnt.
Is this very generous, or am I missing something. The only possible problem that I can see is that he has to last until 4th May 2006.
What does anybody think about Chris Huhne as a darkhorse?
I think Campbell will win simply because in Lib Dem elections the least unpopular candidate, rather than the most popular, wins. In my opinion Campbell has the widest appeal among Lib Dem’s.
OT: Tony Banks suffered a stroke and the “the outlook is bleak” according to doctors.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4591230.stm
Icarus 2. Your maths are right. It’s the best price available though there is still the uncertainty about when the election will be held. What happens if they postpone the election until after May 4th? Who would be the leader on that day?
I bought Ming at 36 this morning and even with my covering bet on CK I’m in profit on the day.
Re 3. The big question is whether Hughes will challenge? If he does then you might see one of the younger MPS coming in if only to lay down a market. Getting 7 nominators might be hard.
I wondered whether Lembit might consider a move. Lack of ambition or being publicity-shy are not things he suffers from.
6 - Lembit is backing Oaten, or whoever Oaten backs.
Thanks Mike - I am afraid I didn’t look ’til twenty minutes ago but they haven’t updated since 4.18 - 2 hours is an age in politics - every Lib Dem on Radio 4 PM seemed to be lining up to be in Ming’s shadow cabinet.
I am hoping to recoup my losses caused by believing that the Tories wouldn’t be so daft as to elect Cameron!!!
Mike. Rennard couldn’t have been clearer: the election will go forward immediately and will last between 8-10 weeks. Monday night’s meeting of the Executive will decide the exact details and presumably Simon Hughes will make his announcement then, one way or the other.
I’m in favour of the John Hemming leadership.
Well opposition parties only need to repeat Opik’s comments about a bitter taste in the mouth and scars in the party and play thay for a while to make the Lib Dems look weak.
Sad that Charles Kennedy has had to leave the leadership and I say that not as a Lib Dem, but I think the other parties will now inevitably need to be developing strategies to possible new Lib Dem leaders and this will test the Lib Dems.
9. Blue Moon, I don’t think Chris Rennard chnically has a say in the matter - though I’m sure that won’t stop him having a say!
5 - That is really sad news about Tony Banks. He was a real loss to the Commons when he moved upstairs, and his presence has only ever made politics that bit more interesting. One of the most principled and consistent defenders of animals’ rights, I really hope he can somehow pull through.
Makes everything else that happened today seem almost irrelevant to me now.
Email from Cowley Street with Charles Kennedy’s statement just received - The machine is working again
Thinking about it this represents a great opportunity for one of the lesser known MPs who keep their powder dry. Wait for all the other leading candidates to rule themselves out backing Campbell, and then join the race. Against one of the brighter orange bookers he will be a sitting duck they can manage to concentrate a two horse race largely on image. They will probably be able to avoid being drawn too heavily on policy (a la Cameron) because Campbell has no identifiable policy platform himself.
This is why I’m asking about someone like Chris Huhne (who is, apparently, and coincidentally, on holiday).
Alex 15. I think that the nature of this election makes it very hard for someone who is less well known to make an impact and the new nomination rules are quite an obstacle - even for someone like Mark Oaten. If it all looks like Ming then why alienate the new leader by going public in supporting an opponent.
My guess is that Ming will want a contest straight away while anybody thinking they could beat him will prefer to wait until after May.
PMQs on Wednesday will be very interesting. How will Ming use his two questions and hoe will Blair respond?
5. uhm, the BBC is probably the only TV channell which were able to see a “2003 London Mayoral election”! (see last sentence of the article linked at 5)
Is Ming considered the man who wielded the dagger btw?
Ming’s price now out to .65/1 with Betfair - best not to count your chickens yet,you one horse punters!
PP
16.”PMQs on Wednesday will be very interesting. How will Ming use his two questions and hoe will Blair respond? ”
I’m probably the only one who cares about this, but where will CK will sit next wednesday? On the second row of the benches occupied by LD MPs?
20. Not in the house at all I would guess - probably in Barbados if he has any sense.
PP
Andrea, Kennedy probably won’t be there.
I think the Lib dem front bench have acted pretty shabbily on this one, given that he had apparently faced up to his problem it seems heartless not to have given him some time to prove himself.
Having said that I suppose that they may say that they have already given him chances and he has let them down before?
16 - I can’t believe there isn’t a sizeable body of opinion within the LibDems who think that Ming isn’t the solution. It is speculated that many are backing him as a defacto caretaker, so that they can inherit the party when he’s gone. But in politics you may only get one shot, and if one of the less fancied candidates can play their cards right this moment could be their shot.
Remember how Thatcher arguably only won in 1975 because all the other party heavyweights held back, intending to come in during round 2. They never got the chance.
Think back, Mike, to all your arguments for why Cameron was the man in the Conservative election, and even more so when up against Davis. And then translate those arguments to a battle between Campbell and a suitably media friendly orange booker.
The only danger (albeit a major one) is that, unlike in the Tory leadership contest there is no opportunity for Campbell to demonstrably lose his widespread parliamentary support, as happened with Davis in the “MP stages”.
21/22. well, I thought about it too. Probably you’re right.
23. Totally agree Alex - I can’t believe that no one will stand against MC.His age is seriously against him and all this stuff about him being a caretaker just doesn’t wash - just try shifting him if he gets the job.
Another critical factor is his health,having previously suffered from cancer,which cannot simply be ignored in the overall picture.
PP
I think Ming will get early momentum and possibly a coronation because of his early announcement and the YouGov poll.
The need for 7 MPs to back you makes it virtually impossible for more than five candidates to stand, and is likely to limit the contest to three max. If at least a dozen MPs don’t back anyone; the most popular in the Parliamentary party gets at least a third supporting him; then there are only 27 left and it’s hard for as many as three to get 7 each.
Ed Davey and Nick Clegg have ruled themselves out according to the BBC. I think David Laws was too damaged by the orange book business. That really leaves only the three front-runners.
And I just can’t see either Hughes or Oaten making it. I think party members DO know enough to make judgements about those three, and the YouGov poll is probably decisive. However I’m not sure the odds I took to back Ming are really long enough to justify it. These things are very unpredictable.
The best process for the party would I think be a late election, after the May coucil elections. That would give time for Lembit Opik and others to vent their anger without it polluting the election itself. There could then be, hopefully, a positive debate. Lib Dem members would like to be allowed the chance to choose their leader, and the period until May would allow the party to debate its ideological direction. I think a drawn out campaign worked really well for the Tories and might also work for the Lib Dems.
I agree with Nick Palmer on the other thread that Ming must avoid the caretaker label. I think he’ll be quite a good leader even though I’d prefer Ed Davey.
I’m so relieved Kennedy has bowed to the inevitable. And he has, after all, taken the party to new hights. Much as I’ve criticised Kennedy, I’m not at all convinced it could have done significantly better.
Oh yes. I also thought the Tories wouldn’t be so daft as to back Cameron, so don’t take too much notice of my predictions!
re 23. Alex - you write Think back, Mike, to all your arguments for why Cameron was the man in the Conservative election, and even more so when up against Davis. And then translate those arguments to a battle between Campbell and a suitably media friendly orange booker.
There is a lot in this and I watch these things very carefully. But who?
Oaten? looks terrible and appears light-weight.
Laws? I like him and he looks OK but maybe too much of a moderniser & is without a wife.
Huhne? Yes a possibility but not very well known and only arrived in Westminster in May.
Clegg? I’ve simply not been impressed.
Davey? My favourite and he’s been round the branches building up good-will and support. I think he’ll prefer to wait.
A major factor for a challenger is to get the publicity and if there are three or more candidates then this becomes less attractive as a TV event. Also, unlike the Tories, it is hard to suggest that the winner could be the next PM so I do not expect the same level of media coverage.
27 There speaks a Lib Dem,who clearly didn’t want to see DC elected.Does anyone seriosly think MC will win votes from the Tories,if so good luck!
PP
28 - Davey’s made a big mistake ruling himself out IMO. Everything looks right for him about the current situation. Obviously not ambitious enough.
As for the others I did specifically say “if they played their cards right” - wait for others to commit and then enter the race. Huhne isn’t as new as you suggest - I think he was an MEP before.
So to summarise - Davey could win regardless of the opposition, but I think, on image alone, someone like Huhne could beat Campbell in a two-horse race. But i don’t know much about him. I’ve said it before, but i don’t understand what people think Campbell can achieve.
Every single angle of attack used publicly about Kennedy (ie. not the drinking) has focussed on the need for decisive choices to be made VERY SOON about the direction of the LibDem party, and where they see themselves fighting the next election. How can Menzies Campbell (especially one not forced to outline his vision of the future in a seriously contest election) be presented as something radically different to what Kennedy was offering, now and in the future?
While doubtless a man of quality, I think Campbell is going to appear stale and stilted next to Cameron. As others have said earlier Campbell manages to look even older than his 64 years, which is already pushing it a bit when you consider the next election is four years off.
29,
Agreed, The New consrvatives, will be very relaxed about MC.
They will not have to do anything, the media will do it all for them.
Regarding his age,health etc.
The contrast will be very stark against DC,in this 24 hours news era.
Bit like Clinton v Dole 1996, no contest from the outset.
Chris Huhne would be an interesting choice. He has been round Alliance/LibDem circles for a long-time now. Was candidate in Oxford West and Abingdon in 1987, MEP for South East region, and now MP for Eastleigh. Right age not too young, not too old. Background in economics journalism so widely respected. Would shift emphasis away from Celtic fringe and would really take the battle to Cameron. See his recent article in the Guardian:-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1672199,00.html
Perilously small majority of 568 in Eastleigh but still worth giving it a go.
33 - Exactly.
I personally feel, strangely enough, this is all good news for the Lib Dems. It puts them in the spotlight, first place on the news headlines, into people’s psyche. This leadership campaign will definitely have a very positive effect on their poll ratings. Then again, if they elect Ming (or in the words of the Sun Minger), Oaten (the Slug) or worst of the worst Hughes then they are on a downward spiral. If they elect Davey, Law or Clegg then us Tories will be really worried.
VOTE HUGHES!
34 - His small majority would be a VERY good reason for him to go for it - a “leader’s boost” might be the only hope he’s got!
OR VOTE MING!
Davey, Laws and Clegg are either bound to split the party or retreat into a mushy compromise for the sake of unity, so I still think that the other parties are bound to gain in the short-to-medium term. Indeed, as Ming’s bandwagon is well-advanced, the battle for LD direction will be postponed until later in the Parliament, when it’s more likely to be sticking in voters’ minds come the next election. If an internal battle is brewing, get it out of the way as early as possible.
Ming moving up on IG - sell at 52 buy at 58 I’m only £10 down now. - Only move of any of the candidates since quarter past 4.
36&38 - Definately Hughes! Surely whoever is to become leader will have the problem of whether or not they were involved in covering up/lieing about CK’s drink problem. It may yet neccessitate a younger person to take over who had no knowledge of it.
Did anyone see Alonso’s goal - amazing
If Hughes became leader (or even Minger) do you think any of the Orange Bookish members of the Lib Dems would defect to the Tories?
There is a very good reason why you can get 100-1 on Huhne. Apparently he is quite confident though…
Campbell v Huhne v Hughes??????
GO HUGHSIE!
42 - It will depend on where the party goes. If Hughes suddenly developed a ruthless ideologue side, it might be a possibility, but the OBers contain so much of the party’s talent it will be suicidal to repel them.
I am getting a little confused with these orange bookers - who are they?
Davey, Theather etc have backed Campbell and I thought they might be orange bookers - so if they are not, what are they?
Teather’s centrist with no huge convictions either way, I’d say.
46 - Davey wrote one of the OB articles, though wouldn’t really be considered right-wing.
41. Yes - not just in his own half but on his own goal side of the centre circle!
Never ever seen a goal from there!
23 - Alex, Comparisons with Mrs T in 1975 are rather misplaced. First, she was standing against the incumbent leader and former PM whom most of the ‘heavyweights’ supported. Sir Keith Joseph, having ruined his own chances with the notorious Preston speech in November 1974, generously withdrew and backed Mrs T.
And you are incorrect: there was indeed a second round after Heath’s withdrawal, when Whitelaw, Prior and Howe all entered the contest. But the momentum was with the lady and she smashed ‘em all… Gosh, seems just like yesterday!
I don’t think any of these applies to the LibDems at the moment…though I completely agree with all your many substantive comments on the leadership
49 - A Hibs supporting friend of mine reckons the legendary Chic Charnley scored a goal from that far out in a Scottish cup tie - he was around 40 at the time and - but unfortunately their were no TV cameras there!
50 - Those were heady days weren’t they, John?
What do the LDs do about the Deputy Leadership? If I were a devious sod (and a Lib Dem - of course I’m neither :lol:) I’d be whispering in Simon Hughes’s ear as Party President that both posts should be elected… Ming unopposed for leader, SH has a go for the latter and Paddy for President…
Oranges are not the only fruit
52 - Aye, (nods ruefully
), back to those care free days of youth. And…hangs head in shame…I didn’t support her.
Just as there have been ‘Health’ issues with Kennedy, aren’t we all overlooking there are appearently strong rumours of ‘Lifestyle’ issues with Hughes. He’d be eaten alive by the press if elected as Lib Dem leader.
54 - Worry not, old boy - we can’t all be right all of the time you know…
Fortunately, I was on the winning side in that particular battle, but more out of dislike of and disillusionment with Ted Heath and his inability to win an election (having lost 3 of 4) than any great confidence in her. It proved to be the correct decision in time.
55. What are these issues? Are they confidential?
Not a good night for Lib Dems to look at the “readers recommended” comments on the BBC News webpage… methinks all the possible candidates are going to have trouble with the “when did you know and whose interest did you put first” questions…
56 - Hopefully the omens are goood with your backing of DC!
55 - You mean that “he bats for the pink team”? I didn’t know that was a secret.
If Hughes got elected, might hurt a Brown Labour Party.
However,
would do the conservatives wonders.
60 - I think the Rev Hughes is more Ted Heath than anything else AHM, if you know what I mean.
59 - Sophia. I should like to think so!
56, My Liege, you are a generous master ;).
Sophia, Wonderful that you’re back :). Surely you too backed DC…Are we going to contine our discussions on “rail privatisation” at next Saturday’s festivity?
62 - A eunuch? Oh dear….
64 - I shall be back to continue my discussions on rail privatisation (hopefully after a few less glasses of wine…) next Saturday…
66 - Well, we’ll just have to make them larger then! Alastair, Will the Blue Corner have the honour of your majestic presence?
65 - I think you misread me AHM, I was actually thinking that Hughes was into conducting orchestras and sailing….
You wouldn’t believe what he gets up to in that Taxi of his
67 - John. All indications are affirmative at this time, but I will know for sure toward the end of next week. Will advise.
68 - Good Grief… it’s worse than I suspected!!
66 “Well, we’ll just have to make them larger then!” - OMG, I will just have to try and deal with this situation!
Sophia I look forward to seeing you again then!!
Davey & Clegg have both endorsed Campbell and will not be standing, why? Because both realised that they would be unlikely to win a contest now, and are young cardinals voting for an old Pope. They would both be candidates in a race after the next election.
Huhne has only just been elected as an MP, and has very little profile, he would not be a candidate this time. Again he’s likely to back Campbell, as he’ll still be young enough to run after the election.
Viable candidates who haven’t yet ruled themselves out are Hughes, Oaten and Laws. I expect Hughes will stand and if Hughes does so will Oaten. Laws I’d be surprised about, given his views on the NHS, and basic Euroscepticism aswell as his very cold manner I think would limit his support.
incidentally, there seems to be a misunderstanding about where Ming’s views lie, he is an unabashed Orange Booker. I think some people would be very surprised if he did become Leader.
54, 56 You two old codgers are being remarkably frank(ish). Nowadays, like me, though I was a firebrand(ish) of the left at the time, I bet you look back on Sir Keith as the great seer. But you must admit, we all had a soft spot for Reggie. Dear dead days beyond recall …
Ah, Mr Riley if I’m not mistaken. Let’s the three of us imbibe a few glasses on Knutsford Heath (no relation)in the warmer season ;). And yes about Reggie
28.”Laws is without a wife”
He could always found one. And then thinking about some leaders’ wives, it’s sometimes better not to have one!
73 - Ming v Cameron. As a Tory, I am relishing the thought.
74 - We’re not old!! I believe the PC term for it is ‘chronologically impaired.’ Rather like Ming Campbell in this leadership contest…
77 - yes - schoolboy whose never had a proper job, against Olympic athlete / lawyer / statesman
79 - oops - who’s - excuse the schoolboy error…
79 - Did he win Gold or even Silver or even Bronze in the Olympics?
Why is Ming a “statesman”?
SBS - by schoolboy you must mean the one the Lib Dems elected as a local president. Only a malicious twister of the truth would refer to 39 year old David Cameron as a school boy!
81 - Because he’s got grey hair, obviously…
81 - Because he presented the most coherent opposition to Blair in the Iraq debates, when CK was incoherent and the Tories (Clarke excepted) were Blair’s poodles.
Rik, …or a schoolboy admitting to a schoolboy error
80 - He’s 39, hardly a school boy. And as for proper jobs have you seen your previous leaders employment record?
Incidentally should he (MC) become leader all the leaders of the main parties will have been educated at fee paying schools. When was the last time that happened.
76. I think the ‘without a wife’ description is code for ‘not interested in having a wife’.
87. A bit like: “His interests are Rugby and Athletics” you mean?
84 - More seriously, I thought there were credible reports at the time that Campbell did not agree with CK’s strategy on Iraq
86 - Incidentally should he (MC) become leader all the leaders of the main parties will have been educated at fee paying schools. When was the last time that happened.
Not since Gaitskell died in 1963 (at which time the other two were Macmillan and Grimond - both Etonians).
90 - Thanks very much BV!
O/T - Another poll points to a CPC minority in Canada. Tories could double their seats in Ontario and may make a breakthrough in Quebec.
SBS Please lay off the poodle bit or my two very large specimens will practice their hunting skill to find you out.
75. … this could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship …
Let’s do it.
93 - The first of the summer wine..
As a Tory, I’m not overly concerned about Ming as I think the effect on all three parties’ poll ratings will be fairly neutral.
But I do wonder if there is potential for the older Daily Mail reading Tories (particularly those in southern seats held by LibDems) to be more inclined to back the elder statesman Ming over the Young Turk DC, perversely thinking that he is more right wing than Cameron - hardly anyone bothers to read manifestos don’t forget. At the same time, the perception of Ming being a Tory in the wrong party might send the disaffected Labour voters who switched to the Lib Dems last time scurrying back to Brown.
The Tories need the Lib Dems to help them win the next election by taking votes off Labour, not off us. Ming doesn’t look likely to fracture the Left vote and that has to be something that worries all of us on the centre-right.
I’m praying for Hughes now.
I do find it difficult to understand why Ed Davey would rule himself out. Is that really the full story? The leadership could be his for the taking, if Campbell and then Hughes stand, and he positions himself somewhere inbetween the two. He has seemingly been around longer than Nick Clegg, so isn’t really in the same category - he’s been known as a “rising star” for quite a while. As an Orange Booker promoting some Leftist policies, he could easily present himself as the unity candidate. Presentationally, vis-a-vis DC for instance, he wouldn’t be bad either.
Campbell might be popular amongst the parliamentary party but do the activisits/membership really feel the same way? There is a strong hard Left faction who might see him as being too far to the Right. Will he really do that well in a ballot of the entire membership?
96 - there won’t be a ballot if no-one stands against Ming, and we get a Howard-style coronation.
Finally caught up with all the postings on what is, after all, a good day for LibDems. One area of uncertainty has been removed, and the media will now (hopefully) allow CK to divert his attention to that which many, many people believe should be his first priority - his family, and his health.
As for who takes over, I share the concerns expressed by others about a “coronation”, but I expect Simon ensure that this doesn’t happen. The next question becomes “who else?” I would hope that Mark Oaten has serious discussions with Ming (the Merciless?), and comes to the sensible conclusion that there should be only a two-way ballot.
Whilst I have a great deal of time for Simon, I believe that a debate between him and Ming for the soul of the party would be the best way of gaining clarity on the direction which the party should take. My personal view is that Ming would have greater effectivness in engaging with the social liberals, rather than Simon engaging with the economic liberals (to use the parlance of the day). Thus greater unity would be effected by having Ming as leader than Simon.
With regard to the timing, may I remind everyone that the LibDem Spring Conference is March 3rd (Harrogate), and using the Rennard timetable there is every possibility of it becoming a final hustings before a membership election. We might even be able to secure a rolling media exposure through to the start of the Local Elections at the start of May. (Anyone want to know which local council which has been NOC since 1974 is going to turn yellow?)
BTW this thread reflects well upon all contributors (and particularly our host)
97 - sure, but wouldn’t the membership resent that in the circumstances? Additionally, I don’t see Hughes (who was quite definite on Ch4 News this evening about throwing things open to the membership and not neglecting them) deciding not to stand against him. Is a Howard-style coronation that likely?
98 - (Anyone want to know which local council which has been NOC since 1974 is going to turn yellow?)
You’re dying to tell us…
As for who takes over, I share the concerns expressed by others about a “coronation”, but I expect Simon ensure that this doesn’t happen. The next question becomes “who else?” I would hope that Mark Oaten has serious discussions with Ming (the Merciless?), and comes to the sensible conclusion that there should be only a two-way ballot.
Precisely. Mark Oaten increasingly doesn’t look credible; the question is, is a character like Ed Davey seriously going to stand aside and allow such a two-way ballot?
Go on Ian, put us out of our misery.
PP
Which parliamentary seat turned yellow for the first time in 100 year in 2005, and which District Council does that cover?
Come on guys, it’s easy, and I don’t even use a pseudonym!
Is there not a danger in having a caretaker for the next 4 years that all you will have is constant jockying for position all the way through to the election? Is it not possible that Ming would find himself in the same position as Blair does now.
Max I think you might, to use an AHM expression, be suggesting that he would be chronically chronologically challenged.
Isn’t Hughes married? If, as some suggest, he fishes at the other end of the harbour, then the tabloids would probably try to nail him for hypocrisy. I hate to think what Peter Tatchell might have to say, what with the Liberals having presented Hughes as ‘the straight choice for Bermondsey’ in the 83 by-election.
106 - no, he isn’t married.
We discuss competing accounts of Bermondsey every few months, which I won’t reprise now, but not everything Peter Tatchell says is to be unquestioningly relied on…
107 - Please, please not Bermondsey again!
107. Unlike what the LD said….the poor innocent souls.
It’s better that I don’t comment again on this issue.
To be fair, Hughes didn’t actually play on, or mention, the Tatchell gay issue in the Bermondsey by-election, but he didn’t do anything to stop it either.
110. plase, don’t go in that issue again. I’m already getting nervous!
I should take a tisane now.
I don’t mind discussions about the Bermondsey by-election. It would take a heart of stone not to find it highly entertaining.
103 - Is it South Lakeland? Which IIRC covers some or all of Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
113. but South Lakelan was Independents controlled in 1976. but maybe it could be considered as NOC.
yes, and yes. Andrea fyi indeps never control anything!
Btw, considering the rumours about Hughes have been mentioned, I think it’s fair to post a link with his reply to those rumours:
http://uk.gay.com/headlines/2015
Moving up, Ming is now sell 56 buy 62 I am £30 up!
I agree with sophia. The Lib Dems look better tonight than they’ve looked for years. And not just because of the publicity but because Charlie has been an albatros around their necks for a long time.
Lazy and pretty useless.
Not horrible like Howard but very few politicians are. He just happened to be around during very favourable times for a third party and he made a good call on Iraq. Not a difficult one though. Everyone who wasn’t a Bush loving Neo-Con was screaming for someone to stand up against the war and the Lib/Dems are nothing if not populist.
As for a new leader; Ming would be a good choice but so would anyone energetic. My guess is that this will give the Libs a poll boost at the expense of the Tories, who, whoever is chosen, wont have the new kid on the block anymore.
So far as I can recall,no one has yet mentioned the Scottish issue yet as regards Ming’s candidancy.After having had to endure a Cabinet full of Celts for the last 9 years under this present lot,not to mention CK himself - isn’t it just possible that the English Lib Dem membership might prefer someone from south of the border?
PP
118 As regards the final sentence of your post Roger - judging by the comments from other contributors here,you appear to be in a minority of one!
PP
103: Are we looking at Solihull? No idea whether it’s NOC, though.
121. Solihull is Tory at the moment:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2004/locals/html/3756.stm
The Ratepayers finally imploded in Solihull then… they were still holding out most of the time I was in Birmingham. Solihull had a few NOC periods because of the 4-party nature of things locally in those days.
123. Book Value, who are the Ratepayers?
124 - The name doesn’t make much sense any more (Rates were the local tax that was replaced by the poll tax and then Council Tax) but they were a very parochial group that sprang up in some wards. I think similar organisations still exist in various places (one of them IIRC is Richard’s local council in Staffordshire, and I don’t think he’s a great fan of them).
OT: According to David Mellor, there aren’t many hopes for Tony Banks. His quotes: “His body is still fighting on but I’m afraid he is to all intents and purposes brain dead, clinically dead.
“So we have to accept that a really rather marvellous man is no longer with us.”
http://icberkshire.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/nationalnews/tm_objectid=16558828&method=full&siteid=50102&headline=former-minister-on-brink-of-death-name_page.html
Very sad.
That IS very sad. He will be sorely missed!
125. Thanks BV.
127. Rik. The year hasn’t begun in the better way. First Rachel Squire, now Banks.
Been working most of the day and only just heard, must be the only one in the country who hasn,t.
It just show does it not, “Events dear boy, events”, can change things.
If MC is crowned without an election the ball game seems to change yet again. Could seriously effect the local elections, not sure how discontented Labour voters will react to him. Somebody just said to me, who is the new Conservative one, can’t remember his name, its all been the Lib Dems. Just shows how easily people are influenced and forget. Everything changes, what will be tomorrows shock. See TB says he is going on for some time, that will go down a bomb with some of my friends and family, I don’t think.
118- love the thought of a 64 yr old (going on 74) being seriously thought of as “the new kid on the block”. But he may appeal to those of a similar age simply because he is not the 39 yr old “new kid on the block”.
Hughes wins - Tory govt in 2009
Oaten wins - Labour govt in 2009
not sure who will make it
XXXXX wins - Lib Dem govt in 2009
129 - baby Cameron is due in a couple of weeks isn’t it? That should generate some media interest, assuming that it has waned by then anyway, which I doubt.
132. Cameron will gon on paternity leave when the baby will born.
I think Hague will be in charge during that time.
36: This is certainly not all good news for the LDs. While most of us are circumspect about the recent internal goings-on in the LDP, the vox pops I’ve heard suggest that the public perception is that the party is a complete shambles. So whatever happens it’ll take some time to rebuild public faith.
I’m sure that most party members would prefer a young leader, so I’m also sure that those members who are now backing Ming definitely see him as a caretaker. And I think he would stand down by 2012. I like him - he’s a marvellous contradiction of radicalism and gravitas, and he and Cable make a good solid team to take on the likes of Gordon Brown - but it’s hard to imagine him having much of an enlivening effect on party support.
btw: The contrast between Cameron and Campbell would be fascinating. An unknown ex-druggie toff prepared to do anything to be trendy and popular, against a power-hungry, elderly, statesmanlike man of principle. Blair would hardly get a look in.
btw2: Can’t we introduce a law allowing only one Scottish party-leader at any one time? Blair, Kennedy, Cameron, Campbell, Brown… Can someone please open a book on when the next time will be that any of the three main parties will not be led by a Scot?
Firstly, my thoughts are with CK and his family and I hope he is now able to complete his recovery and return to a front-bench position asap.
Secondly, as some other posters have already mentioned, every cloud has a silver lining. Radio 4 extended their news for us, this evening! How often has that happened for a third party in the past?
As Oscar said, the only thing worse than being talked about, is not being talked about. At a time when we were in danger of being eclipsed by the media’s love-in with Cameron we’ve chased him off the front pages.
Isn’t it funny, the law of unintended consequences? Cameron gains his seat because of a defection, and gets his prominent job because Collins is decapitated. Now his coronation brings to a head a matter thats been brewing for a while and finally gives us the chance to shape the party for the future.
136,”Cameron gains his seat because of a defection, and gets his prominent job because Collins is decapitated”
Tabman, I think he could have got both anyway.
Btw, for the ones interested, the first rumours about Labour nomination in Dunfermline and West Fife are surfacing. The names talked so far are: Catherine Stihler(a Labour MEP) Bill Miller( a former MEP) Anne McGovern(the leader of Fife Council) Bob Young (a Fife councillor) Angus McKay(the former Scottish finance minister and Paul Sinclair, the former political editor of the Daily Record, who is about to start working for Douglas Alexander)
135 - ‘an ex-druggie toff’. The Liberals are of course in a great position to throw around that kind of personal abuse.
135 - And whats Campbell if not a toff?
135 & 136 - do let us know when you return to Planet Earth.
138. Max, do you know the Dunfermline area?
No offence but I somehow doubt Ming Campbell is going to be a media sensation in the Cameron mould. He will just be another tedious Lib Dem.
138 - Not particularly well - I know East Fife quite well because my grandparents retired to St Andrews but not West Fife & Dunfermline.
143. Ah, thanks. I wanted to ask you who you do think is the best candidate for the Lab nomination among the ones suggested so far.
1. Shocking situation re Banks. He is a decent man and this situation should remind us all - including myself - that there are bigger things than politics.
2. I am surprised Davey isn’t standing but we should realise Campbell can be a leader for one term only, and his (Davey’s)chance may come agsin. I am no friend of Kennedy but think his conduct over this has shown dignity whereas many of those who have joined the bandwagon against him - particularly the 01 and 05 intake - are unlikely to be in Parliament after the next election whoever is leader
As a lib dem voter at the last election I can only foresee Campbell being able to keep the gains of last time, Oaten and Hughes would both lose votes (either to abstentions or equally to others - I don’t see either labour or the tories getting a march over each other because of this).
I think the best that can be achieved is a holding pattern until after the next election when the newer intake can start to make their presence felt. I’m sorry lib dems but it’s going to be a squeeze next time, better to consolidate rather than take any risks and going back to pre alliance levels.
140 - I’d have thought if the last few months have shown anything it is that Things Change Quickly.
I think it quite possible that Cameron v Campbell will work to the LDs’ advantage.
I think it is likely the party’s next few weeks will be happier than its past few weeks.
And while I’m deeply sorry what’s happened has happened, I’m relieved it happened now not later.
None of this is cause for Panglossian optimism. But we’re all still on Planet Earth and the view’s not so bad.
I get more and more annoyed with ITV News and their coverage. The letter from 11 MPs to Kennedy was written before the recess in December, mutterings had gone on for months, yet they continue to say that the drinking revelation was the only reason he went, simply in order to make their ‘exclusive’ revelation look more impressive. Watching their report it is as if the whole issue started on Thursday.
Whats wrong with the news these days. Nick Robinson acting, as some have said on here, like he is on The Day Today, and Tom Bradby moving from Royals and showbiz to politics as their chief correspondent. Thank god for Sky News.
137 - Andrea, quite probably - but timing is everything, isn’t it. He may well not have got into parliament until 2005.
The other thing I wanted to add and forgot to, is that Cameron is putting Liberal ideas to the forefront. Any opposed election will continue that process, and the non-partisan in me is glad of that.
144 - Angus MacKay lost Edinburgh South partly as a result of his own and the local parties complacency, Bill Miller isn’t very impressive, Paul Sinclair has been tipped for other seats and hasn’t got them and was once a young Conservative which may not go down well. I don’t personally rate any of those 3.
I think there will be a degree of pressure to pick another woman - Caroline Stilher is quite good and very hot! - but if it looks like a tight fight they might go for a local figure.
135 - Cameron is not Scottish.
50 - Apologies, John O. That’s what you get if you don’t bother to research throw-away comments about events before your birth
tabman, you’re right that timing is everything, but Shaun Woodward defected in the middle of that Parliament,not at the last minute. So DC could have searched for another seat if Witney had not been available.
Everyone on here who blithely thinks that the Lib Dems wont be affected by all this should read the hundreds of posts on the BBC comments pages:
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=1&threadID=698&start=75&tstart=0&edition=1&ttl=20060107214159&#paginator
There are loads of “former” Lib Dem voters and members now who are disgusted. It cant all be a Tory conspiracy, though I am sure Paul Lloyd or Dan can invent one
151 - Neithers Blair IMHO!
154 - Blair can at least be “smeared” as one.
150. Max, according to the NewsScotsman Stilher has strong chances at the moment. If she goes to Westminster, Miller will go back to Strasburg.
Then maybe next door Gordon would like to give some advices….I bet we will see him many times during the campaign.
53 - Rik, I think most of us appreciate this won’t be a vote winner. (Though having read a few of the comments on that thread, I think you’re over-reading the mass desertions.)
What I am suggesting is that this won’t decide the next election, and that - while the fun of PB.com is to make predictions - it really is a bit futile 3-4 years before the next election.
Hope no one minds my views here, from an outside perspective.
First of all - the Lib Dems need an election. If there is a coronation it will become very easy to portray this whole event as a pre-planned coup. Campbell will look like the victor in a messy plot, and the party will have no boost of electing its leader.
Second I am not convinced Campbell will be anything good for the Lib Dems - he wont be a disaster but I am not sure he will really take them onwards.
A: The young turks seem to be backing him as a kind of Howard option, allowing him to keep the party stable until they mature. But this totally misjudges the situation the Lib Dems are in. They were not close to a real problem, like us Conservatives were before Howard came in. They are not close to a General election and equally in 4 years time, they may not have the opportunities they had previously or even now - Cameron may well have chipped away at Lib Dem foundations and seats by 2009.
B: Campbell does show gravitas, he is a very good Parliamentarian and this will impress some Lib Dem voters and parts of middle England. But I cannot see him winning over those in Northern England, where I live. I cannot see his posh, old Scots really winning over many waverers. Against Cameron he will not look as energetic and like it or not (and I am not a fan) in today’s media world he cannot keep up with the Labour machine and the Cameron factor (presuming DC stays focused). Yes he looks like a respectable guy, who could be stable in a crisis - but does he look like a fresh guy to be PM? I think not.
Furthermore he seems to be a kind of politician who will not chase the student protest kind of politics the Lib Dems have built a lot of success on - so where is left for them to go? Finally some might argue Campbell would win over older voters, again I am not convinced. I would argue many older voters (my apologies if it seems ageist - it is not meant) would prefer to see a younger man in charge and take the country further. Why would they really want to vote for a man who will be 68 or 69 by the next election? This view is not based on a detailed survery, just my gut reaction.
However having said all this and not really knowing Campbell’s policies I would predict he will struggle to keep the votes won from Labour. He wont win over the North, or the Midlands. Meanwhile against the Conservatives with a youngish leader and centrist policies he may just look a little tired - why vote Campbell when you can get Cameron? Finally if he does not follow the protest policy options of the past and is squeezed between strong two parties - I think Campbell could struggle to make progress.
So as things are today these are my views. Campbell would be solid but not allow the Liberal Democrats to move onwards and chart a long term path to greater things. Those young guns waiting for a few years may then find, what they have to work with is far from as strong as it is today.
Campbell leadership = opportunity missed?
Campbell coronation = looks bad.
Two other things - I was at St Andrews University where Campbell was well elected in the last election with the Tories second.
I believe, but cannot be certain the seat was Tory, but simple fact is Campbell will always win the seat. After he goes I am not idea how strong the Lib Dems are, but the Tories have some strength in local politics.
I only know St Andrews and the immediate area and it is pretty wealthy, even the University is far from a leftie bastion - but I believe areas of the seat may be old coal mining areas, but cannot be certain.
Second I would be more than happy to discuss my predictions above with anyone by email, especially Lib Dems - I would love to learn more about your party - ukfuture@yahoo.co.uk
Stephen Tall - I have been following it all day and I can tell you that there are lots of people saying that they are not voting Lib Dem again and some saying they wont renew membership etc.
BTW impressed with your website!
Sir Menzies would definitely impress Jack W.
Perhaps that’s why the Tories are nay-saying him … makes them look a bitarriviste
60 - Rik, they sound like your canvass returns
Assuming we end up with a Brown/Cameron/Campbell line-up going into the next election, I could well see the following happening:
- leftie Lib Dems (traditional sandal-wearing Liberals and anti-Blair/anti-war ex-Labour voters) switching to Brown
- centrist and ex-Tory Labour voters (seduced by Blair) switching to Cameron (turned off by the dour Scot)
- older/traditional Tory voters switching to Campbell (on the mistaken assumption that he’s actually a Tory - “he’s old, posh, called Menzies, and a knight of the realm”)
- the missing Tory millions, who haven’t voted at all since 1992 - well, hopefully coming back under Cameron
Quite what impact that would all have on voting figures I don’t know. Also, I suspect the LibDems would do better in the south and in Scotland under Ming but possibly less well in Labour-inherited seats and generally in the Midlands & North.
Whilst I still hope the Tories should have nothing much to fear from a crusty old relic (I can see the cobwebs in the cartoons already), I think the Tories have got to hope for Hughes, who isn’t going to attract any rightwards-leaning voters but would take votes off Brown.
261. I think he preferred Viscount Thurso