Could Gordon go the way of David and Charles?
January 11th, 2006
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Brown “next leader price” continues to ease
Until the start of October it looked almost certain that the party leader line-up for the next General Election would be David Davis, Charles Kennedy and Gordon Brown.
There was no specific betting market on this notion but Davis was a heavy odds-on favourite to take over from Michael Howard, Kennedy had seen off the doubters after a rather troubled party conference and the best price you could have got on Gordon Brown was 0.25/1. Since then, of course, all has changed.
The only time when this line-up seemed a possibility again was for a few hours one Tuesday morning in November when the Times splashed a Populus Poll showing that Tory supporters were backing Davis over Cameron by 50-37. Punters who took our advice got on Cameron at bargain prices.
Now there are a few jitters in the betting markets over the Gordon Brown succession. Tony Blair’s public backing of his Chancellor at the weekend should have settled the matter but his highlighting of David Miliband and Douglas Alexander took the edge off that endorsement.
On Saturday morning the best Gordon Brown price was 0.45/1. This morning that has eased to 0.54/1 - a considerable move.
A lot of this is tied up in the biggest current question in British politics - when will Blair go? A week ago you could have got 3.4/1 on the Prime Minister being in post in January 2008. That has now tightened to 2.4/1 - a huge movement in such a short space of time.
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For the longer it is perceived that Blair is going to stay the less punters will be confident that Brown will be his successor.
MY BETTING. As I reported on the site on November 30th I had place a big bet at just under 2/1 that Brown would not make it. I have now closed that position down at a nice profit. My view is still that Brown is not a certainty but I have been trying to release as much cash as possible to put on Ming Campbell for the Lib Dem leadership. The current 0.6/1 looks great value and winning bets should get paid on March 2nd.
Mike Smithson
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sorry mike, but i really just think (no matter how much you may seem to want it, as well as tory supporters) gordon isn’t going to crash and burn. Remember labour elections are a college vote system, the membership will vote brown on a massive scale, i reckon 75% plus, the unions will vote for him by at least 50% and the plp and meps will vote for him with the knowledge he will do so well amongst the other two.
Also i no way can you, in my opinion, compare gb to dd. Gordon Brown is a first class chancellor david davis is an average home affairs spokesperson. Gordon has proved himself and will win.
ITD, Mike was telling us all he’s been exiting his Gordon Brown position, so maybe he agrees with you.
That said: I wouldn’t be too keen to bet on Sir Ming. There are a lot of people inside the Literal Democrats who would like an alternative.
Cheers,
Robert
you can post this prediction as many times as you like, it won’t happen. i’d be astonished if blair doesn’t stand down next year after serving 10 years as PM.
2. But he’s beginning to look like a loser and that’s the issue. Politics is about momentum (or “the Big Mo” as George Bush Senior once described it)- if it’s running against you, you’re in trouble, whatever historic polls might say.
re 1. I think that you miss the point. What I try to do is assess the chances of something happening and see if there is betting value. Gambling is all about the odds that you get.
When Gordon Brown was 0.36/1 I thought the price was too tight and bet against - a move that won little support on this site at the time. Within six weeks perceptions change and the Brown price has moved out to more than 0.5/1 so I have closed my bet down at a nice profit.
Last Saturday morning I bet on Ming Campbell at between 1/1 and almost 2/1. He’s now tightened considerably and I could, if I want close the positions down and pocket the profit. At the moment I’m staying in but I watch everything carefully.
The secret of succesful political betting is to distance yourself from your own personal opinions.
i’ve yet to hear an alternative who would win more votes among labour members, mps, meps & unions. clarke? his seat is very marginal and he doesn’t have the support in the plp. miliband? no support in the plp. reid? in his dreams. ditto milburn. if not brown, then who?
re 6. In which case the current price on Brown is good value - as I have acknowledged through my personal betting in the past 24 hours.
For me this is not about being for or against Brown or Ming Campbell or whoever but trying to use my political judgement to make money
Apparently Huhne has 5 certain backers among MPs. Why is he still 200-1?
yeah i know you’re interested in making money. all i’m saying is, brown will be the next pm, barring unforseen tragic circumstances, and i have yet to hear any credible information that anyone else is willing to try and beat him, or any feedback that anybody could beat him.
re 8. thanks Alex for that. I’ve taken the £20 that was available on Huhne at 200/1. If he does get seven nominations that price will tighten dramatically and I’ll make a profit even if he does not win.
5. Mike you are wasting your breath trying to explain gambling and trading to some of the Labour hotheads on this site, I’m afraid. That said, I think there must be a real risk that skeletons emerge from GB’s cupboard in due course…there are certainly some in there.
My guessing who other people will vote for is hopeless. I laid IDS big, and lost big. I couldn’t believe the tory membership would vote for a man who would so obviously be out of his depth.
And how can it be right for LD members to vote for a caretaker leader within a year of the last GE? Treading water for 3/4 years may sound attractive to some, but who?
I note that MS continues to lay GB to be the next leader of the socialist party. He is criticised here on the basis of NSA (no sound alternative). My feeling is that MS is right to think that he is (was) too short a price. Isn’t there something rather arrogant about, ‘I think I’ll let my mate Gordon have a turn as PM now’?
Cathrine Stihler MEP seems the favourite to get Labour nomination in Dumfermline and West Fife.
I wonder about GB too. He certainly has the DD problem. But the alternatives don´t look to hot. Perhaps the answer is for Blair to fight one last election and then hand over - wel I don´t know when!
I think you have to distinguish between what you think will happen and the mechanics of the markets. I also think gordon is a certainity (the first posts point about the mechanics of the electoral college is the killer). but if mike can make a living from playing the ebbs and flows of sentiment then good luck to him!
re ming. I may have a punt at these prices becuase my water tells me it just might be more complicated than the westminister villages says it is. If the ballot was tommorrow I would bet on a ming landslide due to name recognition and a desire to cling to nurse for fear of finding some thing worse. and so it probabley be.
but what if one of the younger generation breaks ranks and stands? tapping inot the desire for generational change? what if some one taps into the anti plotter sentiment in the party? what if some one lands blows at the regional hustings? (a much higher proportion of lib dem members will attend these than the tory ones i bet)
we will see!
fred, don’t be patronising.
i think clegg is mad for not standing. surely he could beat ming?
I’m more interested in the skeletons in GB’s closet
I have feeling that the contest may be Hughes v Ming or even Willis v Ming. Oaten has been very coy about who his supporters are.
Morning team PB.
The answer to the question is obviously yes, of course he could.
This is especially true if the current ebb in the economy intensifies.
A lack of an ‘obvious’ or ‘credible’ candidate lying in the wings
failed to save either DD or CK.
Money talks, the movement in the price tells all you need to know.
How much ‘free money’ have those above denying the posibility
booked themselves in for at these new ‘generous’ levels at the bookies?
Re 17, yes, I thought he was very impressive on Newsnight on Monday, presentation much better than DC, and that is saying something.
MC, suprisingly, looked a trifle uncertain yesterday when answering a question about his age. Much will depend on his manner, questions and appearance at Question Time today. Taking a week off in lieu of my Christmas and New Year working,I shall be watch that with interest.
Hope a woman stands though, Mrs Kramer has the clout and the authority to do the role, not saying whether she would win an election, but she could keep control!.
Any news on the likely date for Dunfermaline, suspect a quick election from Labour whilst the Lib Dems are distracted. Scot Nats must fancy their chances og going back to second and a good result.
The only polls that matter will be the ones after GB is PM (I hope not until 07 - post the Iraq pullout). There are going to be some huge changes of direction in certain key areas - democracy, civil liberties, the environment and international development - the other parties will be left trailing in his wake. This is not partisanship it’s a hard headed prediction based on GB’s extraordinary vision - when he has been given the chance (taken the chance) to lead - since 1992. Contributors to this site underestimate GB and his appeal - it seems this includes our host.
re main story: how do you close a bet down at a nice profit even though it’s not going to happen - is this like a hedge fund? Excuse me, I live in an ivory tower.
22. I trust that these new policies GB is going to implement are to the liking of his backbenchers? IF not he may have trouble getting them through! If they are to the liking of his backbenchers Cameron will play the “Labour’s gone loony lefty again” card and cause some real damage at the polls.
To do well Brown needs to distance himself from Blair (esp on foreign policy), keep the plp happy, make no obvious shift to the left and ensure that there is no more erosion of support to the LD. Some how i think he may have some trouble!
21.”yes, I thought he was very impressive on Newsnight on Monday, presentation much better than DC, and that is saying something.”
even if I’m re-evalueting him a bit, I don’t find Nick Clegg so special. when I saw him on sky during the weekend he came cross well, but nothing sensational. Kramer came across better.
Vince Cable looked so boring and he is able to make Gordon Brown look like a “sunny” man.
21 - The 23rd of February was mentioned. If Catherine Stihler gets the Labour nomination she’ll be very hard to beat. I’m not expecting anything too exciting - probably a result on the same lines as Cathcart and Livingston.
226. who’ll get the second place in your opinion?
RE 22. Er, just ever so slightly biased opinion there I think, professor.
About the only ‘extaordinary vision’ that Gordon Brown can claim all for himself was the withdrawing of tax allowances for pension funds.
His achievement has been to lose this country it’s envied position of being the only Western economy that didn’t have a ‘pensions timebomb’.
Gordon Brown has been responsible for the slow but certain death of British manufacturing industry with manufacturing investment, employment and economic growth at their lowest levels ever.
He has presided over the largest increase in the civil service in peacetime - and has happily used his powers to invade more peoples privacy, for more of the time, than any chancellor in history.
[16] Thanks, Eric.
[12] Isn’t there something rather arrogant about, ‘I think I’ll let my mate Gordon have a turn as PM now’? David, it’s called succession planning. What did Margaret Thatcher achieve after her tenth anniversary in office?
Oaten said on TV this morning (just after 7ish) that he had the 7 MPs to back him. Despite Lembit Opik’s backing, Oaten is starting to look credible. Ming is looking a bit stuffy.
I am no Oaten fan, but he is looking better by the day and his support will grow. In a Hughes Campbell Oaten three-way contest I would expect Hughes to come third.
29 - Margaret Thatcher’s chosen successor was originally a man called John Moore. He was briefly in the cabinet but sank without trace.
226 - I really don’t know Andrea - if I had to guess now I would say the SNP - it would be pretty much disastrous for them if they don’t.
Bally (are you named after a pinball machine?) at 16. I think post 23 surely confirms my earlier point.
232. Max, maybe the LD will try hard….Campbell is from the area.
28 I wish I could be as impartial as you.
I would cite:
1. Independence of the BofE
2. Windfall tax
3. New Deal
4. Sure Start
5. Tax credits
6. Following the Tory budgets for the first two years, paying the debt and then putting billions into health and education - forcing the Tories to accept Labour’s agenda to even achive 33%
For all the whingeing you hear about 5 it is a massive vote winner - why do you think Labour held so may marginals?
28. Yes. But apart from that……!
[29] My point exactly. TB ‘annointing’ GB does look like ’succession planning’. What right has he to do that? The PM in this country has many duties, responsibilities and priviliges. But choosing his successor has never been on that list, and nor should it be.
Put like that, it sounds breath-takingly arrogant and complacent. Hardly a winning position for GB.
Your point that leaders very seldom achieve anything after 10 years is sound.
re 23. Modern betting structures such as the betting exchanges and the spread markets allow you to bet FOR something and to bet AGAINST.
Thus last October I bought David Caemron at a level of 9 on the spread markets and I sold at 49 on the Saturday before I feared the papers were going to come out with revelations about drug abuse. So I made 49-9 = 40 times my stake level. If I had stayed in until December I would have got 100-9 = 91 times my stake level.
Last Saturday I “bought” Ming at 36 and could get out now at 52 making a nice profit.
I hope that is clear.
35. Actually I’ll agree on the independence of the Bank of England.
The whingeing that you’ll hear from me on tax credits is that it’s brought 45% of the population into the benefits system, and for a supposedly successful economy that level of redistribution surely can’t be healthy. I don’t doubt that the people getting the money might like them….
31-Didn’t he rise very quickly about 1987 to be SofS for Health (?), then had a heart attack and then more or less disappeared.
O/T but the Canadian Conservatives are now 12% ahead of the Liberals (10% ahead in Ontario).
240. After his health problems, he stood down in 1992 and went to Lords:
http://www.dodonline.co.uk/engine.asp?lev1=4&lev2=38&menu=81&biog=y&id=26877
41.
22: You miss the point completely, as Mike so clearly pointed out. It is relative opinions that matter not absolute ones. He is the one sitting on a tidy profit not you (as well as running a site dedicated to the art). In no way is he “underestimating GB” — he isn’t really saying anything at all about his personal opinion of GB.
Anyway — in answer (probably not the best person) to 23. You can close down the position by taking up odds after they have shifted, but in a contrary position thereby removing all risk from your bet. It is preceisely a hedge.
Fellow ivory tower inhabitant.
35 Nice one Prof - “paying (back) the Debt”
Is the burden of National Debt now higher or lower than it was when he Brown came to power then ?
39, a Labour government redistributing? Shock horror!
Didn’t David Cameron use the ‘R’ word the other day?
O/T: Anyone read the long article in the economist this week about the years upcoming elections (Senate, HofR and governors) in the US? Seemed like lots of possibilities there…
35. He may have been a vote winner in May, but the political climate has changed hugely since then, and wont change back. At the next GE he will be facing two new leaders with new directions for their parties.
And i think you can’t put the holding of marginals down to one issue. The Conservatives were never expecting or expected to win.
I am intridged to hear what the “huge changes of direction” that he is going to implement once he is PM are?
41 - It’s an amazing turn around and a great tribute to the campaign fought so far by Stephen Harper - with a little help from the RCMP!
37: Prime Ministers and party leaders have always gone in for succession planning!
Thatcher always had an idea of whom she wanted to succeed her, and Major was sitting in that chair when the music stopped (BTW, John Moore had health problems but certainly not a heart attack in 1988). Harold Wilson got his way when Callaghan succeeded; Heath wanted Whitelaw; Macmillan played a cruel game with aspirants and indeed fixed things from his hospital bed in 1963 so that Home would get it (and Butler wouldn’t). In 1951-55 you had two ageing leaders in place almost specifically so that the heirs apparent were dished (Churchill bed-blocked Eden, and Attlee stayed on until Gaitskell could beat Herbert Morrison). Given that TB and GB have worked in harness, however uneasily at times, for over a decade and GB’s succession has been widely discussed, it’s hardly unprecedented. Macmillan was by far the ‘worst’ at fixing the succession.
49. Max, is everything lost for the Liberals now?
50: Clarification - worst FOR, rather than AT, fixing it! The old fraud was extremely successful at it, at the price of compromising the position of the Number 10 staff, the Palace and the Whips’ office.
35. Wasn’t his only real success when he copied Ken Clarke. It is well known that Ken Clarke wanted to make the BOE independent but was blocked by Major, and his economic reputation was based on following Clarkes spending plans. Ever since then it’s been intrusion into peoples lifes through Tax Credit assessment, massive beaurcracy, massive debt and massive waste. What exactly has the dour one done to encourage economic growth which wasn’t in place before he arrived?
46. Nothing wrong with redistributing wealth as such. I have been working to this end for quite some time with some success. Its a good tory tradition. It just involves distributing it in a diferent direction than the socialists would!
“Mike you are wasting your breath trying to explain gambling and trading to some of the Labour hotheads on this site”
Couldn’t agree with you more Fred. The Labour riff-raff seem to get everywhere. Couldn’t they find a hunt to disrupt and leave us Conservatives to disuss serious stuff?
35: Professor, you forgot to mention investing for the long term and prudence with a purpose.
56. You mean PFI of course. A form of accounting which you would get nicked for using in the private sector.
51 - No the Tories had a lead a few weeks out in the last election but the Libs came back. This time round the Tories look a lot stronger, more organised and less gaffe-prone. I still can’t see them getting a majority though given it looks like they’ll get - at best - around 3 seats in Quebec.
“Gordon Brown has been responsible for the slow but certain death of British manufacturing industry with manufacturing investment, employment and economic growth at their lowest levels ever”
Anyone who remembers the 80’s must have smiled at this one.
Broadly the only chance either Hughes or Oaten have is if one of the younger MPs, decides one assassination a month is too few and throws their hat into the ring. I find that deeply unlikely. In any other scenario Menzies would have to come third of the three to be eliminated in the first round. He’s likely to clean up on second preference votes whoever of the other two survives.
Do any of the other punters on this site find it rather fey when some posters take themselves very seriously on economic matters, yet claim not to understand betting? A very simple, very pure market. Repeatedly, and very patiently explained, and re-explained by ‘admin’.
How do they explain ‘the invisible hand’ to their children?
57 and invented by the Conservatives! (Although you get a lot of off balance sheet stuff in the private sector - most of it legal.
50 - I think MC would be great as leader. But I also think it fairly likely that we will see one candidate other than MO and SH.
[57] Woody, the point of the State is that it has privileges, for example taxation and armed forces that the rest of us don’t have. The theory is that even when, as it always does to a greater or lesser extent, it abuses them, we are still better off than we would be without it.
[59] You haven’t got the hang of this Tory lark yet, have you Roger? The independence of the Bank of England is bad for the country precisely because a Labour chancellor did it… thereby preventing a run on the £ & the swift return of God’s Chosen Party to office….
Manufacturing has been in decline (relative to the rest of the economy for decades). What’s curious is that since 1997, manufacturing output has actually fallen in *absolute* terms. I’m not sure that that matters enormously as manufacturing is now a relatively small source of employment and overall output.
Much more worrying has been the huge slowdown in productivity growth, since 1997, and the decline in private pension schemes.
I can formally announce that Sir Menzies Campbell has just won a leadership role. Not of the Lib Dems, but as the new Chancellor of the University of St Andrews, taking over form Sir Kenneth Dover who retired after 25 years in the role.
Think Sir Menzies will do well in this role, and to think I missed being conferred by degree by the Lib Dems’ new hero by one year.
65, how much of the supposed decline in productivity is due to the expansion of the public sector?
Productivity in the public secotor is rather ill defined. A teacher teaching thirty pupils is considered far more productive using the usual economic measurement than a teacher teaching twenty pupils. I know which I think is better though.
Actually Innocent there is a private army in this country can’t remember which duke it belongs to though.
59. Manufacturing output in October was at exactly the same level as at the time of the 1997 election, i.e. there has been zero growth in the last eight years. Even given the early 1980s recession (and another in the early 1990s), manufacturing grew 5% from 1979-1992 and 16% from 1979-1997.
Manufacturing employment has fallen by 1 million or 23% since 1997. This is actually a faster rate of decline than seen in 1979-1983 even though a) there was actually a recession at home and abroad then and b) there was massive overmanning in many parts of industry.
Manufacturing investment fell 26% from 1997 to 2004, only slightly better than the 29% fall from 1979-1983. Given the scale of wasteful investment in the nationalised industries in the 1970s, this is probably in fact a worse performance. Note also investment recovered by 58% from 1983-1997.
So Roger - the post you sneered at was a little OTT but manufacturing performance since 1997 has indeed been dismal, much worse than under the last Conservative government 1992-1997 and on some measures worse than during the early 1980s recession.
While the political point-scoring is going on BoE independence was proposed by the LibDems in both 92 and 97 and condemned by both Conservatives and Labour in vitriolic terms.
[68] Must be Scottish - Henry VII suppressed all the English ones…
68 - The Duke of Atholl has his own army - the Atholl Highlanders.
58. His Grace the Duke of Atholl: the Atholl Highlanders
71. By banning liviries if i remember my A-level history rightly. I’ve always been a big fan of Henry VII, there was a man who knew how to run an economy! Sadly his useless son wasted it all
65 “UK productivity has increased substantially across each of the last four decades. Measured by output per job and output per worker, productivity increased by an average of 23 per cent each decade between 1963 and 2003. In other words, on average each worker produced 23 per cent more goods and services at the end of each ten-year period.”
http://www.esrc.ac.uk/ESRCInfoCentre/facts/index21.aspx?ComponentId=7061&SourcePageId=6970#footnote
I agree on private pensions. Has a lot to do with the dotcom bubble though.
Slightly spooky headline Mike DEFEATED, DEPOSED, XXXXX, I keep looking for a nice word that begins with D……
I agree with Peter that Ming would be a great choice for the Libs. By the next election we’ll have two leaders with extraordinary gravitas and respect and we’ll have Cameron. I have always thought that competitive three party politics is very unlikely in this country with FPTP. The only chance for the Libs is to overtake one of the other parties and become the principal opposition. Ming in my opinion gives them the chance that they never had with CK. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility to imagine Cameron losing support for the Tories. He can look very feeble at times and he seemsa to be heading in a strange direction. Having ripped up his last manifesto in favour of liberal policies which Conservative voters wont like he’s come out against Blair’s anti-social behaviour bill which they will. All this talk about takling the causes of crime is just such bad tactics for a Tory
74. I remember that as well. A much underated King. A Kenneth Clarke type character who handed over to Gordon Brown (Henry VIII)
277.”A Kenneth Clarke type character who handed over to Gordon Brown (Henry VIII) ”
Who’s Labour’s Anne Boleyn?
[74] Yup… I always liked Morton’s Fork - if you have a flashy lifestyle you can afford to pay the taxes, and if you don’t, you’re obviously squirreling it away and can still afford to pay…
77. Lol! Nice analogy but Ken isnt nearly ruthless enough to fit the bill. Plus to my knowledge the Dour One hasnt repeatidly gone to war with France. Maybe thats one of the huge changes in direction he will implement?!
[77] He just never gives up, does he?
re 76. Roger - you would be surprised how long I spent thinking about this. I liked the visual idea and I had thought of going “DEFEATED…DEPOSED…DELAYED” but that did not sound quite right. Another option for GB was..”Betrayed??”. In the end I decided to stick with the question marks
I wouldn’t dispute those figures, Peter. Since mid-2000, though, productivity has slowed down quite sharply.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=133
If a Conservative government were in power since 97 we would never here the end of the economic miracle 34 quarters of growth etc.
The tories have been telling us about economic gloom since 98, with the collapse in asian markets.
Its difficult to get your head around but a Labour government can run the economy fairly successfully.
This has dented their devine right to rule, that only they can provide economic competence.
No wonder they detest GB, as they presumed after one election defeat, normal politics would resume.
80.”Plus to my knowledge the Dour One hasnt repeatidly gone to war with France. Maybe thats one of the huge changes in direction he will implement?! ”
In this case he’ll win big next time!
is there a seat with a large French community for Gorgeous George?
82.”Another option for GB was..”Betrayed??”. ”
duped?
OT: Boundary Commission recommendations for South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire published. The SY ones just finalise the revised recommendations but the WY report is interesting. The Assistant Commissioner recommended keeping the entitlement at 23, rather than reducing to 22, but the Commission threw out her report and effectively confirmed the provisional recommendations with a minor change to a constituency title. (That minor change reduces a stupidly long proposed name and keeps the ‘Normanton’ name in existence, which should help Ed Balls.) It seems possible to me that there could be a second inquiry in West Yorkshire.
78 Hazel Blears, Andrea: Off with her head! - a short sharp shock is needed?
81. Like a little terrier Innocent Abroad.
Tony Blair will stay in power longer than Margaret Thatcher - that is his only aim. That brings him to retiring in November 2008. He can step down at Christmas then hand over to Brown. What price can I get on this bet?
88. zebidee, I thought Labour leadership would have recommended CLare Short for the role.
85. Certainly it would appeal to Tory voters!
However, given the cuts in defence over the past few years i think we might lose…rather like Henry VIII (the losing, not the defence cuts, Henry VIII spent too much on defence)
I think ‘denied?’ fills in the missing word.
76: I’m afraid roger that Sir Ming is too posh, too boring and too old to benefit the Lib Dems to any significant degree. Stephen Pollard put it quite nicely: ‘Sir Menzies Campbell … is a typically British construct: a man respected not because of what he says but how he says it.’ The only hope for the Lib Dems is to ditch the cereal and lentils approach and go for one of the neo-Thatch Orangemen. The Tories are edging away from that territory, and the Lib Dems should now rush in and occupy it. It won’t be without risks, but in these changing political times, it will be the only way for the Lib Dems to attain any relevance whatsoever.
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Nigel Lawson wanted BoE independence too, in the mid-1980s but Thatcher vetoed it. That was a huge error..arguably had she granted it a) there would have been no late 1980s overheating (and Lawson’s career would not have ended in ignominy) b) no early 1990s recession as there would have been no need to hugely raise rates to counter the surge in inflation and c)no ERM membership - this desperate expedient, designed to allow window dressing rate cuts before the 1992 election, would have been unnecessary. No membership also means no ejection. So had Thatcher gone along with Lawson’s request, arguably Labour would not have won in 1997.
91 Claire Short is more a Anne of Cleves figure! Looked nice in the picture but when it came down to it was a bit of an embarassment!
69 Fred. So would you suggest Government subsidy for manufacturing industry? The reason I ask is because that was the question the Tories regularly threw back at Labour ministers who asked the same question.
83 Sean
Indeed. Although flucuations seem to have dampened down considerably.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/economic_trends/daffin_articlefinal.pdf
Have a look at figure 1.
How do you think productivity growth should be encouraged (other than the obvious policy of reducing number of MPs)?
Dear Mike,
Gordon Brown can look after himself, but shouldn’t you be worrying more about your man? The manner of Charles Kennedy’s departure was so underhand it has wrecked the Lib Dems reputation as ‘the nice party’. Ming the Merciless might have fought honourably and in the open by standing against Kennedy in a free election. Instead he — or his henchmen — got a tame hack to do their dirty work. The polls are showing that a lot of people don’t like this, and rightly so. I wonder if the bookies will take odds on which Shakespeare play will best describe Ming’s career from now on. Macbeth would be favourite, obviously. But if you give me good odds, I’d put money on Richard II and his laments on the folly of desiring ‘the hollow crown.’
I think you’ve answered your own question Peter - I think the government’s belief that one can legislate and litigate one’s way to harmony in the workplace has probably had an impact.
100: Like the Conservatives’ reputation for economic competence, the continuing image of the Libs as the nice party is baffling. In the 1970-74 parliament there were only 6 of them and they fought like ferrets in a sack, and the 1967 leadership election was an extraordinary festival of backstabbing and treachery! That said, the public implosion of the Alliance in 1987, months after claiming to represent a new co-operative style of politics, did cast a pall over the early years of the merged party. Paddy Ashdown I think did extremely well to move the public’s attention on from this fiasco by 1990.
35-Professor
‘Tax Credits’
You forgot to mention that whilst the Tax Credits have only be running for a short time,£ 2 billion has already been wasted so far with incorrect payments that cannot be recovered by the Treasury.
Add to this the £5 billion overspend on NHS computer systems,£ 400 million overspend on the Scottish parliament building and the other millions wasted on things like the abandonded council tax rebanding,not to mention the Iraq war,you certainly have the most wasteful government of all time.
Prudence,I don’t think so!
Looks like a free vote on the smoking ban. Should be interesting.
The Shakespeare play to sum up Cameron surely would be Much Ado About Nothing. Hamlet for Labour with all that stabbing through the Arras and for the Libs King Lear. Despite Nick Cohens post I’d say Ming is a Man more sinned against than sinning……
(PS. Very good article in the Observer last Sunday)
100: Before ITN did the job for them and made Chaz’s departure inevitable, they were more like a bunch of procrastinating Hamlets.
82-Admin
‘ 76. Roger - you would be surprised how long I spent thinking about this. I liked the visual idea and I had thought of going “DEFEATED…DEPOSED…DELAYED” but that did not sound quite right. Another option for GB was..”Betrayed??”. In the end I decided to stick with the question marks’
DEFEATED…DEPOSED…DITCHED
OR
DEAFEATED…DEPOSED…DUMPED
I did have to laugh as ming walked into trouble at PMQ’s. I’m glad I don’t have to do it but it wasn’t a very good first day at the office.
109 - Sadly the BBC website wasn’t cooperating as I tried to watch. What did he ask?
Having just watched PMQs im tempted to bet against Ming.
not sure whehter to go to Oaten or hughes though.
That really was poor.
Roger, I made an “Et Tu Oaten?” joke on here last week. No one seemed to find it amusing.
109. Yes he got the answer reserved for Cameron. Looked very poor.
108 john. Caption :
DEFEATED : DEPOSED : DEBT RIDDEN
DELUDED
DECOMPOSING
DESPOTIC
DEFECTIVE
oh dear, poor ming.
Have to admit it, Blair on top form destroying the Lib Dems today. I see Nick got a question immediately after.
i missed ming on PMQ. What did he do so badly?
ming - wooden, reading his question, walked right into a trap by going on 20% of schools having no leadership…ouch. blair on fire today. cameron just dull.
Just answered a YouGov poll on the Lib Dem situ. I am backing Ming but I could see whilst answering YouGovs questions that it could be presented as “Ming overwhelming favourite” amongst members. Basically it asked between Ming and xxx who would you prefer. Even if I was backing say Hughes I would still favour Ming over Oaten and Ming over John Hemming. Results will no doubt appear skewed as I would think most of my colleagues backing Hughes will still answer Ming when presented as a straight choice between Ming and ‘the other two.’ I’d pile onto Ming as, despite my feeling that Ming is best, a lot of members seem to be backing Hughes. Good chance of profit a la DD situation.
99. Roger - what a bizarre response! of course I don’t want manufacturing subsidies; that kind of policy is what got industry into such a mess by the end of the 1970s. Your post seems to imply the weak manufacturing performance since 1997 is ‘natural’. It isn’t, it has occurred due to bad policy that has weakened UK competitiveness. Over the same period, since 1997, US and German industry output has risen 20%, French 16%, Australian 22%. The UK has been the worst performing major economy except Japan.
115 Bally Eric. Tony on excellent form today ….. and I think my write-in campaign for the good Viscount will gather momentum after the wooden performance of Ming the Meagre.
111. Whatever you do don’t back Oaten! What’s the point of having a Lib Dem leader who lets David Davis seem like a liberal?
Any more news on Huhne after today’s Telegraph piece?
I take it if Simon Hughes is asking questions about the NHS in oxfordshire then he must be standing? I really do feel a campbell/oaten/hughes contest lacks zest. we need another candidate!
lets see how the media spins the campbell fiasco. Radio 5 doesn’t seem impressed but these things blow over.
Poor old Ming and Simon… Blair walked all over them just now, didn’t he? What price Nick Clegg?
122 Lewis. Do you have a link to the Huhne “Telegraph” piece ?
125 It’s only a small mention in an article at:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/01/11/nlib11.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/01/11/ixhome.html
Ouch - one imagines Charles Kennedey hated every moment of that !
I must surely be the worst pundit on this site. My backing is the kiss-of-death. I’ve been saying Ming would transform things for the Lib Dems but now it seems in directions I hadn’t predicted. Even John Pinaar(?) my favourite commentator and always fair said Ming was awful. Unfortunately in these febrile times performances like that get a life of their own and before you can say ‘Mark Oaten’ Ming becomes history……
126 Lewis. Thanks. If Huhne could muster the 7 backers I like to see him run. I’d also like to see Evan Harris in the race but he’ll back Hughes.
The difficulty is that Ming has sown up such a large slice of the Lib Dem MP’s that there’s less scope for outsider candidates to enter the fray. However a few non runner candidates in the field will make the contest a little more colourful !!
127 ToryBoy. Do you have feline relatives in Cheshire ?
The headship thing was pretty funny, but I wouldn’t say he was wooden. That’s a description I’d reserve for Cameron today.
Who will be the first Ming backer to defect I wonder????
129. But Huhne has such a feeble majority in Eastleigh. He would be a huge target for the Tories. I don’t think they would get him but it would be a constant worry in the run-up to an election.
The BBC website is being nice to Ming about his performance.
As Mr Campbell’s disaster is replayed on TV and others see it I sense a pivotal moment.Whoever advised him to ask that second question or the comment about schools. Perhaps they back someone else.
May see others enter, Clegg, Huhne, Kramer, Featherstone.Last time there were seven if I recall.
I am tempted to put some money on Clegg or Kramer, coming in at the last moment. I shall go and see what odds William Hill give me, 25-1, would do nicely. Need to recover after putting Burton Albion down to win!!!!.
Ok, ok, bit of perspective… I hold no brief for Ming, and today wasn’t his finest hour. But this was not a David Davis moment.
Come on. Methinks that everybody is being a bit partisan in their view of PMQs.
I thought Cameron’s focus on weighty issues like Iran and Aids was quite smart because it preempted a Blair attack - given that the PM always gets the last word. He’s still finding his feet and his comment about TB not welcoming MC was quite good.
MC did OK as well and made good points - but it was unfortunate that he had not foreseen the “lack of permanent heads” and the linkage to his position.
Tony Blair is just very very good. Why anybody in the Labour party should want him to go defeats me?
129 Jack. I agree Huhne should stand. After Ming’s poor performances yesterday and today, centrists in the Lib Dems will worry that if only the big 3 stand, then one of the extremists (ie Hughes and Oaten) will win if Ming continues so dismally. It will be too late to rectify things once nominations have closed.
133 Tistoph. Huhne wouldn’t win but the publicity wouldn’t do any harm. And leaders always get a constituecny bounce when they assume office.
134. Get on Betfair if you want to back the, You’ll get much bigger odds.
136. Campbell looked old and confused today. I’m sure Lib Dems will give him another go before they make their choice but he can’t afford another day like today.
136. yes, I agree the actual Cameron focus was good. I’m also glad that Campbell went for public service reform.
134 - there were 5 last time. Kennedy, Hughes, Malcolm Bruce, Jackie Ballard, David Rendell. The non-runners who nearly ran were Nick Harvey, Ming and Paul Tyler - can’t think of any others…
Has ming just had his “david davies” moment?
Cameron, played the thoughtful world events, Iran, Aids, questions at Blair.
Thought he did well.
Think Ming and Simon, don`t have the class of advisors at their disposal as the Conservatives, it certainly showed, Blair made a mockery of them both.
Oaten was in the best position talking to Andrew Neil.
136.”Tony Blair is just very very good. Why anybody in the Labour party should want him to go defeats me? ”
because some people don’t agree with him on many important issues.
It’s not too difficult to understand.
138. Ah. Am with you now.
I that case i agree he should stand. The LDs have a lot of telent lurking around, this contest could show that.
Shame that Davey, Laws and Clegg ruled themselves out.
Seems to be that some of Campbell’s backers were expecting a coronation, now may be wishing they handnt backed him so they could stand themselves.
Amused to see Michael Howard on BBC2. He made a good point though. Blair stressed that one of the problems with the Middle East is that we need to bring democracy. MH pointed out that the nasty regime in Iran is democratically elected.
142 This wasn’t the David Davis moment. Ming only needs to do well at PMQs next week to be back on course. But if he doesn’t, people will spot a trend.
In any case, David Davis’s moment was in sharp contrast to the Cameron speech (and the Frank Luntz piece on Newsnight). Oaten, Hughes etc certainly haven’t had their Cameron moment yet.
Hewitt is going to rebel against herself!!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4600910.stm
148 - what about Hilary Armstrong? Will she have to write to herself if she wants to vote for a total ban?
48. “but the political climate has changed hugely since then, and wont change back.” How old are you?
Ming looked vulnerable to the Doctor Who attack:
“Doesn’t he look a little tired”
57. Introduced by Stephen Dorrel, IIRC.
87. Revised / final recommendations also announced for Tyne & Wear. 8 constituencies confirmed as final with no change. Revised recommendations made for the other 4 constituencies - the changes appear fairly minor.
If a second inquiry is held in West Yorkshire this will delay the issue of the final Boundary Commission report.
Other than West Yorkhire and Tyne & Wear the only other area still to be finished is Greater Manchester - where the inquiry was held in November 2005 and revised recommendations are due in April 2006.
Very unlikely but this just could be absolutely disastrous for the Conservatives. Another inquiry in West Yorkshire could put back the issue of the final Boundary Comission report from approx September 2006 to say March 2007. With the changes only going through parliament approx 6 - 9 months later there could just be a chance that Labour could then delay putting the report to Parliament.
Clare Short said today that Brown’s plan is to call a General Election 3-6 months after taking over. So if he takes over in 2007 could Labour delay putting the report to Parliament and hold the GE on the old boundaries?
So the decision on whether to hold a second inquiry in West Yorkshire could be absolutely critical - it could decide the result of the next GE.
Iran is a very much a controlled democracy. The people can vote for a variety of candidates approved in advance by the clergy.
149. Book Value, lots of letter flying around. Royal Mail has already called back all their postmen on holiday!
We’ve just to remember Clare to write this time. Otherwise Hilary Armstrong will expect her vote.
146,
Hardly in Iran they have a vote , but it is not Liberal Democracy.
Best described as a Theocracy, all the power is with the religous leaders, who overide if they want to and directly elected official.
142. David Davis’ speech was actually a good one. And one in five schools still has no head.
154.”. The people can vote for a variety of candidates approved in advance by the clergy. ”
what is this? the description of the Tory A List?
The government will withdraw the “on-the-run” bill.
Gerry Adams not happy.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4602314.stm
159 - That’ll be the same legislation that Hain had a go at the Tories for not supporting then?
Wow the government are really backtracking today.
First on smoking now on the “on the run” legislation - wonder if the media will cover this or if the government are hoping it is concealed by talk of the Lib Dems.
160. Max, we’re seeing major cases of ministers rebelling againt themself
153. Mike L. Clare Short’s not very good concerning Westminster gossip/rumour. Diane Abbott is more reliable about them.
?53 Thanks, interesting. I’m mildly surprised by the Tyne and Wear report because I thought the provisional recommendations for Sunderland were absolutely barking and they have been confirmed.
160 Max. With the Tories junking their policies at dizzying speed and appearing more left wing than Stanley Matthews presently, I fear you are not in a strong position to complain about U turns !! ……. news that Cameroon is insisting on party members carrying Mao’s Little Red Book may not be too shy of the mark !
164. Jack, haven’t you received yours yet?