Flying blind on the Lib Dem race
January 17th, 2006JACKY ASHLEY WARNING: I am not a member of what Jackie Ashley in the Guardian regards as the time-served officially recognised commentariat and any views on political outcomes contained herein should be treated accordingly.
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Are the markets over-rating Hughes?
A challenging factor for the growing number of punters on the Lib Dem race is that the only hard information we have is the YouGov poll that was published in the Daily Telegraph a few hours before Charles Kennedy made his dramatic announcement. The survey had been carried out amongst Lib Dem while the bulletins and headlines were dominated by speculation about the former leader’s future.
Ming’s 49%, it might be argued, was a desire for some stability in all the turbulence. If a new survey was carried out today the figures would be different and, in any case, we have seen the emergence of a fourth contestant, Chris Huhne.
Since then there has been a move to Simon Hughes in the betting after Campbell suffered from reaction to his debut at Prime Minister’s Questions.
But looking again at the poll and the voting system that the Lib Dems operate I do not think that Hughes will make it. For with the alternative vote methodology Hughes will find it hard getting the second and third place preferences that could push him to victory in the final count.
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For a variety of reasons, and this showed up in his 21% YouGov showing, there are too many in the party who will vote “anybody but Hughes”.
A lot is being made of his overwhelming victory in the ballot a couple of years ago for the party presidency. But this is really a “nothing job” and his sole opponent was Lembit Opik.
Chris Huhne, the former MEP who only got into the Commons last May, is almost unknown to large parts of the membership and is benefiting enormously from the exposure of the campaign. A point worth noting is that the Euro region that he used to represent contains one fifth of the entire membership of the party.
A threat to all the contestants is a challenge from the other former MEP, Nick Clegg. But the Sheffield Hallam MP’s article in the Independent a week ago today makes it very difficult for him to enter the race while Ming is still there. This appeared under the heading “We need a leader with experience, not youth. This would be the wrong time for the party to skip a generation”.
I think that Ming is still favourite but Huhne could surprise us.
Mike Smithson
“.. an influential political commentator” - Jackie Ashley, the Guardian
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Many political commentators, Mike, like some of our Tory friends on PBC, seem to have difficulty in overcoming their limited thinking about voting systems. Consequently, they interpret this Lib Dem leadership contest in first-past-the-post terms. You are right, I think, to point out the difference that the Alterntive Voting System will make.
That said (@), I think there is also some difficulty in foreseeing the movement of the second and subsequent choices. Many commentators group the candidates according to their own criteria, and see the transfer of votes as simply going from one to another within their own pre-defined “block”.
I don´t think it works like that. Some Lib Dem members may well cast their vote according to the emphasis given by the candidates to different political policies. However, I feel that the majority will be swayed by other factors, such as personality and campaigning strenghts. It is very hard to predict how the votes will move.
I think performance will be crucial is deciding the race. Most Lib Dem members want a leader who will inspire the general public. That’s why so many questions are now being raised about Ming. These doubts can be characterised as “If he can’t even inspire me then how will he inspire the electorate?”
I think that the candidate who does best in the media and at hustings will end up as the winner. Currently that looks like Hughes but there’s still a long way to go.
I think Jackie Ashley is way off the mark. The wisdom of crowds is a well known phenomena and the closest we can get to capturing that wisdom is the betting markets.
As a Tory friend on PBC, I have to say that I think John is right, we all tend to assume the system we know.
EU Serf But Jackie Ashley doesn’t question the ‘wisdom of crowds’, she questions the impact of betting on political momentum. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. For example this piece. Mike claims that he is neutral (and in his own mind he is) and so he does a piece saying ‘I think Hughes is overrated as favourite because…’ a perfectly valid argument as commentary - but not a ‘truth’ just an opinion. However, many of the political gamblers look at this site and many, knowing Mike’s reputation will follow his tip. So the Hughes price will ease and the Campbell price tighten.
But then the media will look and see that Hughes price has eased, and they will put 2&2 together and make 5 as is their usual thing. ‘Hughes no longer favourite as question marks are raised over his performance’ or some such thing. And then doubts are raised.
Now as Book Value pointed out yesterday - part of what she was complaining about was that the ‘commentatariat’s’ monopoly was being broken, and sure that is true. But her counter argument would be that the claim to neutrality is also not true.
And I would agree with that point. Mike is not a ‘neutral’ player, even if he tries to remain ‘impartial’, for unlike racing, the momentum of the candidate is determined by how many people are backing him / her. As a very influential man in the world of political betting, he cannot claim neutrality.
Was I the only person to think Ming’s commitment to get rid of his jag was utterly pathetic? Surely it was a gaz-guzzling monster as deputy leader. A hand-wringing disposal now is just ludicrous.
Jackie Ashley’s implicitly sneering attitude towards bookmakers was unattractive. There was a feeling that ‘I’m sure they are worthy fellows, but I don’t want them on my patch, or round my dinner table’.
If she thinks that prices are being manipulated somehow, or don’t accurately reflect of something occurring, she is free to say so. ‘Interpreting’ bookies odds for GMW, who also seem to take a superior attitude to betting, could be useful. But her mastery of the subject makes it unlikely. Bookies expected to be impartial? What’s she on?
4 - I think that you are underestimating the efforts that Hughes is making to change his perceived ( by many within and outside the party ) left wing stance . The impression I get is that he really wants the leadership and is making every effort to btoaden his appeal and will continue to do so throughout the campaign . Having rejected Ming because of his age , my vote now that I have one is still up for grabs and of the declared runners edging towards Hughes but I am still open to be impressed by someone already declared or not .
I agree that Hughes should not be favourite at this time and that only Campbell and Huhne can expect to garner second preferences in large numbers. I think we may be underestimating Oaten, for reasons I’ll explain when I have more time. But I don’t think he is going to win finally.
I hoped Hughes would broaden his appeal but he hasn’t done a lot for me yet I have to say - apart from his launch which was superb.
I think a good case could be made for stating that the betting markets are not necessarily that efficient or accurate. I think they are useful but not a substitute for actual analysis. The exit polls outperformed the spread markets at the last election and the betting markets were all over the place during the Conservative leadership election. The markets also badly miscalled the 1992 election (even worse than the polls) and there simply isn’t enough historical data. Indeed if Mike Smithson actually believed the makrets were efficient there would be no point in him giving tips or placing bets.
As someone pointed out - the more we believe in the efficiency of the betting markets the more inefficant they will become (and vice versa). If people like Jackie Ashley quit writing political analysis and we simply looked at the markets then they would become totally useless (of course that might benefit savvy punters like us).
Mathew: it is generally considered that the financial markets are efficient (viz A Random Walk Down Wall Street), yet thousands of people make large sums of money from “tipping” shares!
On the YouGov survey, it must have been very limited because I am a LD on their register and get regular invitations to vote on many things , but not on that one.
I would certainly not have voted Hughes or Campbell.
The former I regard as a good MP but not sound enough to be leader. The latter for loads of personal reasons; age, style, ambitious wife, should have looked after Charles better,etc.
I offered David Laws and Nick Clegg constituency nomination as soon as the field opened and both replied declining and putting the case for their support for Ming Campbell.
I am convinced we must move on to the best and brightest of the next generation, so quite logically I have joined the Huhne camp.
Mindful of vote re-distribution effects, I will vote 1. Huhne,2. Oaten to ensure my choices do not reach the other two.
11 - Generally considered by whom? Efficient Market Theory is now regarded as completely untrue by the vast majority of stock market players, it is just the academic theoreticians that havn’t caught up yet.
In the previous thread, Huhne was reported as looking at Nordic models of taxation. I have paid tax in Sweden, and I did not enjoy the experience one little bit. Sweden is haemorrhaging jobs to Poland, the Baltic States and China, as a result of high taxation, high social security contributions and regulation.
5 Yes - I agree. If he really believed his ‘environment, environment, environment mantra he would have ditched the Jag for a Prius by now. The fact that Huhne did just that a couple of years ago is one of the reasons a lot of activists are already warming to him.
7 But do Lib Dem members want to vote for candidate who has visibly ‘changed the way he is percieved’ just for the purposes of the leadership election? Many of them are a lot cannier than that.
In my view Mike has got it right. If the voting was this week it would probably go Campbell with Hughes as the main challenger. As the campaign goes on, however, and Huhne gets his fair share of exposure, I see him steadily gaining. He is already building a momentum at grassroots level in the South East where he is well known and well liked. His challenge is to get that momentum going elsewhere.
The LibDem activists I have met recently divide into headbangers who want Hughes and the rest who divide amongst the others. But the Hughes ones tend to be devoted to him. Younger LibDems seem more Orange Book.
Hughes will be electorally diastrous for them, but has that ever stopped Liberals in the past?
They don’t seem as keen on power at any price as say the Cameroonies.
anyone else find it bizarre to imagine anyone devoted to simon hughes?
16
16 Are most of these people in London by any chance? I think you will find the balance is different outside London. Hughes is better known in London and tends to polarise opinion there - it’s much more of a mix out here in the sticks. I have already had several members here (Oxfordshire) ask me why the media keep saying that Chris Huhne is unknown. To members in the South East he is the best known candidate by far.
As an LD and political anorak I agree with Mike’s analysis. I very much believe Ming will win, but Chris will get a good vote because of his policy stance (not the thing to be voting on in a Lib Dem leadership election, but there you go.)
In response to some earlier comments, I’d just like to point out Sweden has very high tax indeed but is overall economically performing as well as Britain (Sweden also has maybe the healthiest and best educated populus on the planet…got forbid we start copying them…).
Blue Sq have Clegg down to 16/1. He could overtake Oaten despite not saying he’s standing.
21. It’s all that ramping from yesterday Dave. I even got him tipped up on At the races last night.
21 - So it appears that the rampent ramping here yesterday got him moving, how about trying it for Kramer today? Give us 15mins to all get on at long odds and then go for it…
OOh please do. It’s worked a little already. I got into her at 570/1 and she’s down to 400s
16 part right - most Hughes supporters are devoted to him. Don’t think he’d be an electoral liability - he would focus on a different audience.
Some younger Lib Dems are ‘more Orange Book’ (assuming that means the balance is more free-market than social liberal). But far from all. ‘Power at any price’ (surely the slogan of the Oaten campaign) ain’t a slogan that appeals to more than a tiny handful of Lib Dems.
On the subject of Oaten, can we read from the lack of even a campaign website that his campaign is about to come to an end? I think so.
Mike is correct in asking ‘Is Highes over - rated. None of the other candidates, or potential candidates, elicit such supoport or anti-support (if that’s a word) such as Hughes. I accept that he may well have the single largest group of support, but he also is the candidate who would attract an ‘anti’ campaign to the extent that the others wouldn’t.
I think the odds reflect only the former without taking into account the latter.
Once again I could not agree more with Mike’s analysis. Hughes is overweight, Huhne underweight, Campbell about right.
In a hughes/campbell play off campbell will win by getting the second preferences of huhne supporters.
In a campbell/huhne play off huhne will win by getting the secodn preferences of the hughes supporters.
In a huhne/hughes play off huhne will win by getting the second preferences of campbell supporters.
As things stand we will see a campbell/hughes final round: but Huhne is picking up support from both and may be lucky enough to squeak through.
Mark Oaten has essentially been demolished as a candidate (”unlimited ambition, limited talent”)- and is storming into fourth place, and may not even get that.
Simon Hughes also has a problem, in that away from London (and Wales), he probably inspires more anti- than pro- feelings. He can probably do enough to get second overall, (and if very close, he might even gain the most first preferences) but his flaky reputation (”will probably miss more meetings sober than Charles did drunk” is a common view)really makes it pretty hard to breakout from his loyal cadre. The only way that he can win is if he gets second preferences from either Campbell and Huhne. This looks unlikely.
I think Huhne may do much better than the current betting, but think that the fairly solid support of the parliamentary party for Ming Campbell will just swing it for him. However there is just a chance that Campbell may end up with fewer first preferences overall than Hughes.
28 - Of course the beauty of the AV system is that it matters not a jot if Campbell gets fewer first preferences than Hughes, as long as he comes out on top. In the current line-up I would favour Campbell or Huhne, and am fairly indifferent between the 2, Hughes would be 3rd and Oaten a distant 4th. The difficulty is in trying to game when Tony moves, as I think that Huhne would perform better against Tony, but Campbell better against Brown (when Brown tries to look sincere, he ends up just looking bored, but Campbell actually looks like he has gravitas) Obviously the ideal candidate that would floor the other parties would be a high quality female candidate, How about Susan Kramer?
29 - I agree I think Susan Kramer would be an EXCELLENT choice for the Lib Dems
rofl - Gravitas… it’s that word again!
29. I agree with the choice of Kramer for the Lib Dems. About as warm as an ice cube.
20. Sweden has a very high rate of people on incapacity benefit, largely because of fiddling the system. Where I lived in 2002, they were closing A&E wards, forcing people to travel huge distances after heart attacks - at least most of them were DOA, so that saved a fair bit of money.
Interestingly, childhood obesity is rising, the comparison with the situation when I first went to Sweden in the early 1980s is quite startling.
I stopped believing the propaganda about how rich the Swedes are when I saw that so many Swedish women could only afford half a bikini.
Gravitas - a word that is getting bounced around more than a bad cheque - not just here, btw, the media are using it alot, and not just about MPs, but it seems to be the mot du jour
So is gravitas the word that now replaces the old phrases “safe pair of hands”, “reliable”, “hard-working”, “trustworthy” - all journo shorthand for boring stuffed shirt who couldn’t inspire a hyperactive child to bounce off the ceiling
I wouldn’t have thought Kramer would make a great leader (yet) - she’s a bit too apologetic somehow, although very likeable on the doorstep. I voted for her during the GE because I met the Tory candidate and decided that he was a slippery git. He tried the immigration ploy - bad idea - I *am* an immigrant *and* I have the vote.
I begin to think that Oaten is going to get more support than expected and Huhne less. Explanation here.
[12] Beth (who IIRC says she’s a Lib Dem Councillor herself) has given the game away when she refers to a candidate’s “ambitious wife” - would she even consider a candidate’s husband’s ambition (or lack of it) to be a relevant factor? The dirty secret behind Labour’s all-women shortlists isn’t men’s prejudices these days, it’s women’s
1. Actually, as a Tory, I asked for peoples views about a week ago on what the effects of the voting system might be. I understand the system, but not the minds of Liberal Democrats! I’d be interested to know whether there will be clear blocks of support, i.e. everyone who votes for Huhne as 1 will vote for Oaten as 2 etc or will it be more unpredictable than that?
Hills have the best price on Clegg - still 34s - They will take £60 max - not bad as an insurance bet…
Will the first round results be made public? If Hughes gets twice the first-preference votes of Campbell, but Ming wins out in the end, then that’s one big albatross around the old guy’s neck. As was mentioned at the top by John13, most people (i.e. the general public) don’t/can’t think in PR terms and will see this as unfair.
In FACT, value seekers - You can lay the £2 available on Clegg on Betfair and Back £2 Clegg at 34s with Hills and have yourself a £10 free bet on Clegg! Charge!
39 - yes, the results of each count are published. Here they are for 1999:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election%2C_1999
Interesting that this article has NOT caused Hughes price to drift.
Last night 2.3, now 2.22.
41. This shows that last time Hughes got a lot of 2nd, 3rd and 4th preferences - contrary to what many people have predicted will happen this time.
i’m amazed that 3,400 people thought David Rendel could become the leader of the Lib Dems.
43, 41 - Indeed, I think that it shows that 2nd, 3rd preferences will not move as a bloc, but will split in various proportions. (Not that surprising since the voters are always more complex than the analysts give them credit for)
30&33.
I have gravitas. YOU are posh. THEY are snobs.
44. and you’re not surprised by the 3,978 who voted Ballard?
The Times today - repeating the case for Clegg - “The Liberal Democrats must not be led into the wilderness”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,542-1988714,00.html
[41] Thanks for the link, BV. The conclusion I draw is that it might as well have been a FPTP election
- Kennedy and Hughes picked up very similar numbers of transfers overall - it would be interesting to read a reasoned case as to why people think that Hughes will pick up fewer (proportionately) second and third preferences than he did in 1999.
I hope and expect that Peter’s analysis is correct, and that Oaten will indeed do rather better than people expect, and Huhne much worse.
I am impressed by the number of people who are talking him up, but the cold light of reality which for Liberal Democrats means a leader who can make a lot of visits means CH is a no-hoper, unless he fancies losing his own seat.
His candidacy will also inspire a certain amount of indignation among more experienced and talented MPs who have not thrown their names in the hat. Why should they spend their time trying to save him?
Looking at the 1999 result I think it looks quite good for Hughes. In simple terms:
1. He came fairly close last time.
2. He demonstrated he does pick up 2nd, 3rd and 4th preferences.
3. Hughes is a much stronger candidate than in 1999. He has clearly matured, comes across as much more authoritative.
4. The other candidates are all much weaker challengers than Kennedy was.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Hughes picked up second preferences from both Oaten and Huhne. Probably Ming will do a little better though.
A couple of days ago someone said not to under-estimate Huhne because he was able to win the MEPs selection in the SOuth West in an all members ballot and so he could not be so unknown as said.
Looking at the result of that selection, the turn-out was so low.
http://www.cix.co.uk/~rosenstiel/eu03/eu03se5.htm
South East - the South West LD MEP is a genuine party star - and I would possibly vote for him even though he is an EU-enthusiast. He has the humility that Huhne lacks.
49 - because it is a different field. If you voted for Ballard last time the logical transfer was then to Hughes. And if you voted Bruce (I speak with bitter experience) the dilemma was that Kennedy was too chatshow, too little politician, and Hughes too earnest and Anglican. I probably tossed a coin
I’m a Lib Dem member who at the time of the YouGov poll would have said I’d vote Ming but would now vote Hughes. Until there is another poll we can’t know how many people have switched like me.
Don’t think he is a great candidate but at the moment he is the best. Huhne is the one to watch as I don’t know enough about him and if he does well during the campaign I could drift towards him.
54.ops, yes, I meant South East.
53. Thanks Andrea - I asked a few days ago for this information - I should have known that you (rather than any Lib Dem posters!) would provide the answer.
Can anyone else see the resemblance between Hughes in the pictures in top of this thread and Christopher Lee in these:
http://jamesbond007.net/advers/Lee1.jpg
http://www3.sympatico.ca/philippe.lemieux2/images/NosDracLee.jpg
http://www.g21.net/2000grax/dracula11.gif
i gave ballard voters the benefit of the doubt, in that perhaps they thought it was important to vote for a woman candidate.
I cant believe people are wanting Kramer to enter the contest…have any of you lot heard her speak?? Her entry would be exactly equivalent to Ballard’s token female candidature in 99. All the telented LD women are in their 20’s or early 30’s - forget about their leadership challenges for a decade.
I also think that people are dismissing the Yougov poll too lightly now. Ming was miles ahead - I dont see that all evaporating yet, even if some will have bled to Huhne since his entry.
54: “He has the humility that Huhne lacks.”
…”and he also has a lot of things to be humble about.”
I think that although Charlie needed to be persuaded to go for the good of the Lib Dems, a severe tactical error has been made by those that looked enviously to their right on the green benches in believing a Leadership contest was a panacea, and yet, because of the structure of the contest, it could end up removing all momentum from the party
The Lib Dem leader is going to emerge in 6 weeks having had little time to work with the press, and jostling with at least 3 others during this period - it makes it much harder for the LDs to make a mark, meaning the victor effectively has to start from standing on 3rd March - no real momentum in the public domain (away from the politicos) and only 2 months to do so with the locals upcoming
I appreciate that the caucus is different to that within the Conservative Party, (everyone votes at first asking using AV) instead of the 2 caucus and FPTP system we use in the Conservatives, but doesn’t this also create a form of problems for the Lib Dems with the media? DC did not have to start with the public on 6 December - he had had 2 months where it had been 2 horses (well, 2 in theory, in reality it was just him), so the public knew him to a degree already, which meant he could hit the ground running
63 - is there any evidence that any lib dem thought changing leader was a “panacea”?
44/47 - I know of some people who wanted Kennedy to win but not easily and to give him a bit of a warning so backed one of the lesser candidates first knowing that they would go out and then give their second preference to Kennedy - Rendel and Ballard surely “benefitted” from this approach!
35/50 - We can all do the mother test but then I hardly think this Peter Kellner/Frank Luntz style reliable polling. The fact remains Oaten has only one public backer from either the Commons, Lords or MEPs (and is likely to get anymore either) whereas Huhne has plenty (even more than Hughes). Oaten is also the only one without an official leadership website - his campaign has stalled and is dead in teh water.
61.”have any of you lot heard her speak?? ”
yes, I saw her on Sky the weekend Charlie resigned. She was there with Cable and Clegg and she came across better than the other 2 (Cable in particular).
63 - this is the impression I have got, as have others I have spoken to - if this was not the case, there is an issue with the message being put across
58. Mike L. Glad you found it helpfull. In that site there’re all LD MEPs selection results.
It seems to me that unlike the Tory race where members had four
distinct choices the Libs as so often happens find themselves in a mush in the middle. The nuances of policy differences seem to be taxing even the candidates themselves. Ming has now told us he will jettison his Jag for environmental reasons. This is really the first clue to what any of their leaderships might be like. I really can’t see any of them having the originality to break out of their 18%-23% box. I would urge them to have a look further down their list. The Libs were always good at causing a splash when they chose to and now is the time.
14 Absolutely Fergus !!!
High taxes = outward investment/jobflow
It ought to be stamped on the forehead of every politician or every pary in indelible ink.
Current enlightened thinking tells us that such thoughts aren’t very ’socially aware’ though because thats what their focus groups tell them.
Wonder what they’ll make of unemployment when it all kicks off ?
69.”It seems to me that unlike the Tory race where members had four
distinct choices the Libs as so often happens find themselves in a mush in the middle. ”
Isn’t a good thing that people coming from the same party have not many differences!?
PS What the Jag incident told us about Ming was not in my opinion positive. Politicians are always going to be asked ‘have you stopped beating your wife….’ (how can you be an environmentalist when you drive a Jag) type questions. The really good and talented politicians are the ones who deal with them well. Ming didn’t.
The Tory member didn’t have four choices unless the other two were to leave and join Labour or the LibDems.
Even four isn’t enough for me.
Hmmm, we seem to have the well known phenomena of high-earners arguing that taxing high-earners is a bad thing. Well, there’s a surprise
Surely the Liberal Democrats can find a better candidate, male or female than the present 4! How can you get enthusiatic about any of them?.
69. Andrea yes….. if that party don’t need to pick up an extra 10% of the vote. Right now they need to do something different
73 - Agreed I would like at least 2 more candidates to have as wide a choice as possible Clegg/Laws and Kramer/Featherstone
LibDems will largely vote on 3 factors, name recognition, campaign performance and ideological positioning. If this was just down to name recognition, then this would be a straight Ming vs Hughes contest - but it palpably is not.
Ming’s stumbles, or more accurately the media response to them have left his campaign in real trouble. However, like Mike, I think that Hughes will struggle to get the 2nd preferences needed to win a contest, I suspect he will get most first preferences but he needs over 50% to win and I can’t see who’s voters would switch to him in suffiencient numbers.
Huhne is indeed relatively well known in the South East, (where he was MEP) which accounts for about 14,000 of the 73,000 LibDem members, but has a very low profile beyond that. His performances have been intellectually solid but very flat. It was noticeable that not one of the 4 viewers on SKY last night even mentioned him. I just don’t see him taking off - the media have already stopped talking him up.
I also think that Oaten haters on here are getting carried away again. Oaten has performed quite strongly on 3 separate TV appearances, I would still be very surprised to see him winning but the idea that he is about to fold his campaign is nonsense, In fact I understand that he will be both launching a website & opening a new campaign office this week.
featherstone - so crap she wouldn’t even make it as a tory shadow spokes person on paper clip reform.
Has anyone got an up to date list of which MPs are backing the various candidates?
It seems to me that the problems that the Lib Dems have is that they were persuaded to pursue short term tactics in the run up to the 2005 General Election, at the expense of a long term strategy - that is to tack to the left, in response to issues such as the Iraq war and tuition fees - rather than develop a coherent strategy post-Blair, to supplant the Conservatives. Now their unique selling point of being mainstream and centrist (which in reality is actually not true, by any reference to their policies)- but not Labour - has vanished with David Cameron’s election as Conservative leader and the leakage of anti-Tory votes back to Gordon Brown - whilst modest - will cost them a significant number of seats across the country, especially in the South East.
A new leader (any of the four on offer) will fail to resolve the problems associated with this strategic error, bequethed by Charles Kennedy.
79 Pleasure to agree for once ! (Though a smidge ungallant !)
I was thinking that us northern users of this site should have our own PBC party maybe in Manchester, I must not be the only person not chuffed being unable to actually meet allies and our eloquent foes in person, am I?
featherstone - so crap she wouldn’t even make it as a tory shadow spokes person on paper clip reform.
Is that Camerons eye-catching-initiative for to-day?
Roger - agree completely. There is another difference, as I highlighted yesterday - MH wanted DC to win, and set up the contest to give him the time to do this and create some momentum, while in the process enforcing that the competition was to be fought using Queensbury Rules, thus helping to further banish some of the past public misgivings about the party.
In the same way TB was given a clear mandate prior to his election (?installation), due to the smooth nature therein, presenting the Labour Party as a slick and presentable face to the british public.
This election campaign is more of a scramble, and to the “non-politicals” I speak to (quite a few of whom are LD waiverers) it is either perceived as a mish-mash, on both the policy and presentation front, turning them off, or it is viewed as a scramble over the still twitching corpse of CK.
As I said, this is a PR mess at the moment, and the LDs need a champion to emerge very soon that activists and MPs can start to swing behind to halt this perception growing before it does some medium to long term damage to their prospects (a la Tory wilderness years of the recent past)
According to her website, Kramer is currently backing Huhne, but haven’t heard much noise behind the support… Perhaps it’s tame support for the moment whilst she thinks about standing. Probably not in the expectation of winning, but simply to give the members a larger choice, since the the voting system doesn’t penalise having a large number of candidates.
Heh and then Southern based northerners can go to both and have an excuse to visit the folks.
Stewart - Nigel Lander says hi
Dear Milkybar
Send my compliments, how is e
87 etc - Careful, Max will be wanting a Scottish based party as well… and if you accede to that, how about one in Italy for Andrea…
84 We are now getting the fair hearing from the media (who like DC)that we weren’t before. It has leveled up the playing field.
You should be worried Roger, very worried, and clearly are from your whinging.
I’m all for that lennon, always fancied Italy. I always regret being invalided out before visiting Italy.
89 - sorry, was talking to Stewart Jackson - didn’t know you knew Nigel as well!! He is in fine fettle
79/82 As soon as you Tories start to rubbish a potential Lib Dem candidate it makes them more attractive . Having suggested your best candidate back last June at least you had the sense to elect them as leader .
Glad to hear it
87&90 - The North of England would suit me fine - I don’t think I’ve ever been to Manchester. Of course Scotland would be ideal even if it is just so we can see Jack W in a kilt, an introduce you all to my favourite Scottish delacasies!
As I said I would have loved to have come down to London (although it’s not my favourite place being a bit of a country boy at heart) unfortunately I have a packed social diary!
O/T - Alex Salmond will fight Gordon in 2007 which could be very interesting if it’s decided that those standing on the list can’t also stand in the constituencies.
94 - I’ve always thought Simon Hughes was completely useless - almost bad enough to be a Labour education minister. If I was a Lib Dem I definately wouldn’t go for him!
wow, i’m being accused of being a tory now! featherstone is rubbish. do you liberals want to pick someone who could be PM or not? featherstone will hopefully lose her seat next time anyway.
“You should be worried Roger, very worried, and clearly are from your whinging”
Three years too early to be worried TB! I must say though that if Cameron keeps up his daily PR stunts he will soon run the risk that the sleepy electorate might just think that Jeff Randall’s recent comment that Cameron “was a Carlton Communications bag carrier and is a PR flunky” might be true.
78 - I wouldn’t be surprised if Oaten does do that - I have heard he has the largest stash of cash backing up his campaign of all the four candidates.
98 - Sorry Eric , with Tory Boy agreeing with you , I put you in the same boat . Did Featherstone’s win at the last GE cause you that much grief LOL .
86 - I heard (and I am not 100% sure on this) that Susan Kramer is keeping a low profile due to serious illness in the family at the moment. I like her and think there have been a few unfair comments about her on here - but I would not read anything into her quietness at present nor hold your breath about her standing this time round.
Gordon uh, my mothers glan
Max you know they sitituation up there better than me, what are the chances of a conservative revival affecting the highlands and mid scotland seats
i always liked Roche a lot and was sad to see her lose to someone so crap
Anyone think Huhne is a younger version of Giles Brandreth - lookalikewise anyway!
98/101 - Featherstone is the sort who will be tough to winkle out. I met a woman at a dinner party a few years ago and in the course of conversation (not about party politics but I think streets being dug up) she said that Lynne Featherstone was her MP and had reacted incredibly swiftly and effectively to the matter she had raised with her. She was not, generally, a Lib Dem supporter. She refused to be convinced that Lynne was not at that time an MP. It is all anecdotal stuff, but personally she is my tip to do in 2009 what Davey did in 2001 and Lamb in 2005.
No Brandreth has a personality, albleit a weird one, lookwise brandreth has a cheeky smile and a gleam in his eye that Huhne just doesn’t have
106 - I agree with James. Lynne is doing a great job and will hold her seat.
I quite like Mrs Featherstone, plus if I had to marry a lib dem she would be that poor unfortunate lady I would be badly trying to woo.
09 - poor - hardly, she’s a millionaire
Poor little rich girl
Re. 33, count me in for any Manchester do for the northern section of pb.com - it’s fairly close to Leek (where I live) and I go there every fortnight. Daytime rather than evening, preferably (there are no late buses from Macclesfield to Leek, though I suppose I could stay in a hotel for any evening do), and in either a city centre pub or a coffee shop/cafe (the Costa Coffee at Deansgate Waterstone’s isn’t bad).
Equally, I’d be interested in any East Midlands gathering of pb.com in Nottingham.
Maybe one of these days pb.com will follow the example of the SDP’s early ‘rolling conferences’ and have a ‘rolling get together’, starting off in London and moving through Nottingham and Manchester to Scotland?
I was thinking of the Atlas bar in Deansgate locks, possibly saturday early afternoon, I used to work there the owner is a fellow Bury resident and staunch tory, Lovely daughter to boot.
Plus it’s right next to a train and tram station
Very keen on a Nottingham do; but a Manchester one would be good too.
104 - Anyone who witnessed the effort Featherstone put into winning the seat will be aware that she’s far from crap. I think her backing of Chris Huhne is also pretty astute - the more I hear, the more I like him.
109 - You’re spoiled for choice with Lib Dems: Jo, Julia, Jenny, too. Or are you just in it for the money?
103 - I don’t see any real progress in most of the Highland seats although we may do a bit better in Argyll & Bute. Perth looks pretty good and I’d hope to do better in Stirling seeing as we should have a candidate who actually lives their this time. North Tayside will be tough for as long as John Swinney continues as the SNP candidate and Angus (on the Holyrood boundaries) is safe for the SNP.
If their is a revival (and I expect at least a modest one) then it will probably start in the South rather than the North. Particularly as we have a bigger membership base in the Southern seats.
Well the scottish MP is nice but I not to keen on the others hos glasses and the modern look jenny has doesn’t go down with my conservative tastes, plus there is a lot to say for the more mature lady
96 - Max, are you going to be silly enough to go to the Scottish Tory conference in March - if so, we could declare a breakaway PB party though I think the chances of luring Jack off his estate are small.
103 - as a Tory highlander I have to say that the plates are not yet shifting noticeably in our favour.
100 - irrelevent how much ‘loadsofmoney’ Oaten has, as there is a fixed amount any of the Lib Dem candidates can spend in this election. £35k to be precise. I’d imagine all of them will have no trouble finding that amount.
On the betting front I backed Ming at 3.5 when his odds drifted after Hughes announced his leadership. There now almost par. Ming will win, unless there is a surprise late entrant like Clegg who in any case will only enter if Ming drops out which I cannot see him doing. Huhne has a great deal of support in the South East but almost zero outside. Plus sitting on a majority of 550 would make me nervous if I was the MP! Oaten - no chance as the odds reflect.
17.”You’re spoiled for choice with Lib Dems: Jo, Julia, Jenny”
Tonge or Willott?
Count me in for a Northern party. Manchester or Nottingham would be fine.
124 - dimmi tu!
124. Pater, if JT gets angry, you could be in serious troubles!
Well if people email me on penkethstuart@hotmail.com with possible dates there free I’ll gauge numbers and try and organise a day in Manchester when everyone is free.
Back to the Topic. Campbells price on IGindex is gradually moving up (influenced by Mike’s comments?), but nothing much happening on Betfair
IG buying price is
Hughes 45
Campbell 42
Huhne 12
Oaten 9
Clegg 3
Interesting article in the Observer about Jeff Randall the new Daily Telegraph ‘editor at large’. Particularly this paragraph;
…..but his views carry weight-never more so than when he’s opining on the future of the Tory Party. He recently described David Cameron with whom he crossed swords when Cameron was a Carlton Communication chief as a ‘company bag carrier’ “He was a PR flunky. There was one occassion when he came far too close to denying somrething that was true. His idea of talking to the press was talking to the great unwashed and I resented that……..”
So not all Tories love Dave! The next three years may be more unpredictable than the Tory club on here seem to think!
126. The spring forum is in Manchester in April. Could be a good date.
120 - Quite possibly - despite the considerable expense!
Second that. Right now the polls are at sixies and sevens if (and when) the Tories begin to fall behind I expect some serious infighting (remember IDS was actually ahead in the polls when he was replaced). I wasn’t particularly worried about DC when he was elected and I’m not particularly worried now (I was far more worried about KC and DD - before his conference speech).
128. Roger, have you only just noticed that?
1. That quote is old
2. There have been Tory anti-Cameron dissenters on this very site (as well as elsewhere).
“1. That quote is old”
The article is one day old and only the bag carrier quote is old. The questioning of his honesty as far as I can gather is from this weeks interview
re 131 In what way are the polls at sixes and sevens. They all seem to be going in one direction - LAB > CON with the LDs holding their share. This view shows great complacency - Labour is being hurt badly by Cameron.
there a loads of cameron stories floating around from when he was at carlton. whether any of them will ever come out i’m fairly doubtful. i doubt anyone would be willing to break cover and spill the beans.
Mike: even I recognise the LibDems have been losing a little share!
134.”They all seem to be going in one direction - LAB > CON with the LDs holding their share”
actually even the LD has lost a couple of points.
admin - some of us remember labour leading thatcher in the polls with kinnock as leader. calm down love.
“They all seem to be going in one direction - LAB > CON with the LDs holding their share”
Perhaps Matthew was thinking of last weeks Populus poll which showed no change from the General Election other than that the Lib Dems were NOT holding their own but had shrunk to 16%. But there again if he’d looked at ICM in the NoW…………..
So ’sixes and sevens’ sounds pretty fair for the last two weeks
94 Fine go ahead - elect her by all means - go straight to oblivion and don’t pass go - bothered !!
BTW. Also fed up with all the talking and lack on walking vis a vis potential LD defections should Hughes win so maybe I can help.
Straight £ 500 at evens it happens this side of the next GE is
on the table on a single+ LD defection to the Conservatives.
Appreciate its a toss of the coin - I’m game on it you are.
99 Roger, I fully accept the jury is out.
Just amuses me to see others who enjoyed the ride when the boot was on the other foot getting twitchy now the tide (seems to be)
turning.
Bally Eric - Re Cameron stories - They will start to come out when something goes wrong for Cameron (the press are like that), or he pushes the unreconstructed part of the party too far.
However if you wished to try any of them on us now then I am sure nobody here would tell anyone.
139 - Roger, suitable questions were raised both last week and in the past 12 months over Populus, their methodology and their findings.
Populus are also the only poller to put Cons behind - ICM have offered two consecutive polls with leads and with them pulling away. If others continue to come out with Con lead, whatsay the next Populus poll also registers a Con lead?
I place no weight in individual polls at any point, beyond the obvious chance to shout “huzzah” for all of 5 minutes, before you remember lies, damn lies and statistics. The real proof of whether we have turned the country back to liking the conservatives will be in 6 months time with a long chain of poll results plus local elections, and then again in 18 months at mid-term point with the next batch of locals
96 - The proposed rule that you can only stand as a list candidate if you are not also a constituency candidate is for Wales only at the moment; it is in the Government of Wales bill before Parliament at the moment. If the Government wanted to do the same in Scotland, it would require seperate primary legislation.
Just some extra info on my point at 144: it is not for certain that it will apply in Wales either, it depends on whether the Tories and the Lib Dems try and block that in the House of Lords.
144 - I know but their are rumours Labour may try to implement the same legislation for Scotland. It is manifestly in their interests to do so.
Roger/Bally Eric
I reproduced the best piece from Jeff Randall (which does tackle the Cameron at Carlton experience) here.
If you know of anything better, please let me know!
140 - You are not as confident as Anatole yesterday offering me 10-1 on on there being no defections perhaps you should have a bet with each other lol . As for Featherstone it is not simply a matter of electing her as leader , it is more of offering a wider choice for the members to choose from rather than the poor choice offered to Conservatives of DC or the Dead Duck . speaking personally as I have said , I would like to see 2 more hats in the ring one of them female .
a little on the economy,
inflation has hit 2%, the bank of englands target:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4619724.stm
which should lead to a fall in interest rates boasting the economy
house prices are also rising:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4616288.stm
meaning that their should be no house pricing crash, this is particually important as this is the one thing that could really screw the economy. All though personal debt is high in britain the vast majority 80% is secured on dwellings ie people remorgaging after the rapid house price rises. Meaning that this debt is more than sustainable providing the housing proces dont crash.
all in all considering that inflation is under total control, interest rates should fall, and unemployment is remaining low, and will possibly even fall as growth picks up, i am more than confident that for however long gordon brown is chancellor there will be no recession
1/ I’m offering you a better price if you fancy a bet
2/ What’s being female got to do with it ?
148 and 150: I can’t help thinking that tokenism is, in some way, hindering the entry of women into politics because it shines so fierce a spotlight on them as women. The point at which we stop trying so hard to get women into politics may be the point at which more of them enter it.
Valerie, amen to that!
Best Candidate (even if they’re all women) every single time please.
Having re-read Jackie Ashley’s comments I actually find myself agreeing with her in part (although her criticism of Mike is pretty unfair since this site usually looks at opinion polls/ political gossip / serious analysis rather than just quoting the betting odds like they were the be-all and end all). There has been some recent hysteria (in both the academic community and the media) about betting (and prediction markets) and while they are useful in some respects (especially when you look at sudden changes) I would give more weight to other factors.
As I said earlier they do not have an unblemished (or even an particulary good) record with a number of significant blips (eg the last minute surge for Kerry). Even if they do reflect fundamentals reasonably well it is difficult to reverse the process (extract the fundamentals from betting odds) and they are certainly NOT a replacement. A paradox of markets is that they only work efficiently if they involve active managment and for that to take place we have to believe that they are inefficent.
This site is a good site and I think many of Jackie Ashley’s comments were just jelousy but I do think that some of her arguments had a grain of truth to them.
Regarding Cameron I do feel that the polls are pretty much in flux at the moment and in three months time when the press has got bored of him (or simply wants the excitment of seeing him fail) he could be in a Charles Kennedy style situation. In any case I still predict a Labour majority of about 40-50 and the Tories getting a maximum of 220-30 seats.
Re. Jeff Randall etc. as someone who has dealt with the press a fair bit in the past I must say I find it a little rum for them to be accusing people of ‘coming close to saying things that are not true’…shurely Fleet Street’s speciality? Describing them as the great unwashed isn’t too far off the mark, either. A bunch of drunks to boot - no wonder Kennedy got on so well with them.
I’d be very surprised if there’s a recession in the foreseeable future as well Red Flag. Rather a gentle deceleration of economic growth, as our performance converges with that of the eurozone.
49. Red Flag - Shouldn’t you change your name to Rose-Tinted Glasses?
I think he’s been a good Chancellor but even I think he needs to either raise taxes or cut spending to balance the books. He seems averse to this for reasons I can only think are ideological.
153. So your predicting that Cameron will only make a net gain of about 10 seats taking into account boundary changes. How interesting.
is that a case for joining the euro sean fear lol.
well before the election the hysteria from the tories was unbelievable
i remember quotes like its a good election to lose etc and that we would be in a recession as labours ‘luck’ had come to an end
this leads me to the tories biggest mistake, although browns rating took a dive from your attacks, when there is no recession it makes him look better than he maybe is as he turns round and goes you said their would be a recession i said they wouldnt i was right, if you want economic stability vote for me
the tories have had their best chance to land a blow on browns economic record,