Will Mark Oaten retain Winchester?
January 20th, 2006
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Meanwhile the money piles on Ming
Less than 24 hours after having to pull out of the Lib Dem leadership race a bookmaker has opened market on whether Mark Oaten will retain his seat at the General Election.
The opening prices are 4/7 that he will and 5/4 that he won’t.
This is an interesting bet because if the Tories do manage to sustain a recovery then Lib Dem seats like Winchester could be vulnerable. Oaten is a formidable campaigner and I would not bet against him.
In the main leadership market punters have been piling onto Ming Campbell who now stands at 0.84/1 with Simon Hughes having moved out to 2.2/1. There’s been a big move behind Chris Huhne who has now tightened to 7.2/1.
Mike Smithson
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If he stands he is likely to win, and those odds look good.
He may not decide to restand though.
What happens if he does not stand ? - He will not have retained it but nor will he have lost it !!
4/5 and 7/4. 108% book in a two horse race !
4/7 and 5/4. I was recoiling in horror from the poor value.
Winchester used to be a very safe tory seat in Rear Admiral Morgan Morgan Giles’ (sic) day. Then there was an MP who got a lot of unfavourable publicity over his marital affairs and the Tory majority just slipped away.
What if he defects to the Tories and retains it as a Tory?
5 but that was the election before Mark Oaten won it.
I would have thought Mark would be a very stron favourite. Tories will surely be concentrating on holding vulnerable seats in Hampshire, and seeking to dislodge Labour and Lib Dem MPs in more vulnerable areas.
7: Yes I know. I was filling in the history of how the tory majority declined.
Don’t forget that in the boundary changes Winchester becomes more urban and, so say those in the know, more Lib Dem. Most of the outlying, more Tory, areas are moved to the new Meon Valley division
The Tories royally messed up what was a safe seat with a series of pratfalls over about a decade. Oaten is popular locally - full disclosure, I’m in a neighbouring seat - but a Tory Party that is firing on all cylinders ought to be able to take it.
Be aware that boundary changes may be imminent in this area. I believe the Winchester constituency could be significantly altered.
So boundary changes not so good for the tories in this area. Will Basingstoke also be easier for Labour?
6: I think thats probably his best chance of being an MP after the next election!
Amazing number of comments on possible defections over the last few days.
They are pretty rare, and very unimportant when they do happen.
Haven’t you boys got anything better to do?
11 Basingstoke does become less Conservative with the boundary changes but not enough to make it a marginal . Winchester becomes safer for the Lib Dems as does Romsey but there the changes are very small .
13 - if he did defect it would raise the quality of MPs in both parties.
9 & 11. The partisan effects of the Winchester boundary changes should indeed help the Lib Dems - they could add c 2000 to the majority based on the CC results. Basingstoke should indeed be better in theory for Labour on the new boundaries, but after their awful performance at the GE (vote share down 9.2%) their chances of winning it look remote.
17 Meon Valley is winnable for Lib Dems according to Anthony Wells iirc
My estimate for the Meon Valley seat is a Tory majority of about 2,000 over the Lib Dems, so yes - a winnable seat for the Lib Dems. Winchester, as people have suggested, will become slightly more Lib Dem, though my estimate is less good for them than Fred’s - a majority of just under 8,000.
My estimate for Basingstoke is a Tory majority of around 2,100 - still Tory but a substantially smaller majority.
I really do think it is too early to be predicting how boundary changes may effect the next election! A lot will depend on the swing away from Labour. To be honest, I doubt Oaten will loose his seat. I do think the Conservative majorities in the area will increase, eg Reading East, Newbury.
Mamimus - we mean, what the majorities would have been at the last election on the new boundaries.
lol sorry… long day!!
20 - Still in that neck of the woods, does the Hampshire East seat change significantly? Presumably it loses some to the new Meon Valley, but enough to make it interesting?
17 I would give the Conservatives an edge by 4-5,000 on the notional figures . Aldershot isa little more marginal . It would be interesting to have a discussion on here on the notional figures for some of the new seats as opinions will differ , Flitwick , Vale of York for example .
22: I don’t have the stuff to hand, but I seem to recall that the better bits of Hampshire East for the Lib Dems are the ones that go into Meon Valley, and that’s why it is a notional marginal. The remnant Hampshire East becomes more safely Conservative.
Basingstoke would have been notionally Labour in 2001 but as people say not 2005.
19: It’s a bit previous to assume a general swing away from Labour in 2009! A lot can happen between now and then.
I would tend to see the Conservative majority rising in Newbury, although this isn’t inevitable - an energetic Lib Dem candidate might be able to stem it but it will be difficult (Taunton was regained but on a tiny swing in 2005). Reading East is different - that was caused not so much by a rise in the Conservative vote (which merely got back to about where it was in 1997) as the big Lab slump to LD. If Labour get their act together 2005 might be an aberration in this seat.
York Outer (I know what you meant Mark
) we had a long, long discussion on before - I can’t remember if it was here or on my site before my archives were hit by a hurricane. I expect it to be a Lib Dem seat by about 1800, but I seem to be in a minority.
As the guy who took on Mark at the last election can I make a few points.
First re. Anthony Wells at 18, If the Lib Dem majority is 8k in the new Winchester seat at the next GE then that’s a huge increase on the current Winchester maj. The new seat has about 70k voters; the old had 85k and Mark’s majority is currently 7,5k.
The new Meon valley seat has 65k voters and my estimate is that the Tory majority looks like being about 4k using County and District election numbers. In the current climate, I don’t believe the Lib Dems have a prayer at the Meon Valley unless Mark has a go. Even with him as the candidate let us not forget that the CC election comparisons are based on elections happening at the same time as a Mark based GE. The figures therefore already contain a substantial Mark effect.
Mark’s franchise in the area is very strong. He worked very hard in the seat for at least three of the four years of the last parliament and he continues to profit from that effort. This added to the invidious comparison with both Gerry Malone and John Brown (both of whom were widely detested) means he remains a very strong candidate locally.
If he stands in the new Winchester seat I believe he would be a strong favourite to win. If he stands in the new Meon Valley seat I believe he will lose.
24.” If Labour get their act together 2005 might be an aberration in this seat. ”
and if Jane won’t be back from Latvia…..
Update from Dunfermline and Fife West.
The Conservative candidate is Carrie Ruxton and UKIP is fielding Ian Borland (who stood last may too getting 1.5%)
26 GeorgeH. Let’s hope he wanders across the road to Meon Valley … although I’m not holding my breath.
Jack. A year or so ago he told me he was going to. I can’t believe there’s any chance though with Mark you never quite know . . .
28 Andrea. A new candidate for the Tories then. Full CV please Andrea.
BTW I see that the Honourable Member for Sussex Mid(rift) is still in the Thames …… apparently there’s a pod close by ….. anyone seen dear Gywneth recently ??
24 - Thanks, I was hoping that the notional would come down, and combine with a longstanding Tory candidate standing down (cant see Michael Mates carrying on) to give an unexpected Lib Dem possibility.
Re - Kinnock and his intervention - has no one forgotten what a vote loser Kinnock was ? Is this a Blair plot to get MPs to support the education bill as they run screaming from anything associated with the ‘Welsh Windbag’ ?
I’m sure it was nothing personal, but Carrie Ruxton stood in Northavon in 2001 when Steve Webb’s majority soared…
25 - Yes Anthony York Outer LOL and Filton too LOL Blonde moments . I think some contributors here think these calculations of notional results is a simple science but in fact they are not which is why I think it would be a good topic for discussion on here or on your site and it will be interesting to see the differing opinions .
34. She stood in Dunfermline East at the Scottish elections in 1999 too.
31. JAck.
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=people.person.page&personID=127340
30 GeorgeH. Perchance Limpdick Orbit will take on Meon Valley, he seems to be joined at the hip with the Slug.
Carrie Ruxton would be an interesting choice in a winnable seat. She made a big stir in Northavon by becoming a single mother while she was a candidate, and she was an LD in the past.
I’m somewhat intrigued by the bet on offer re. Oaten. It’s very particularly worded.
The bet is very specifically will Mark Oaten “Retain/Lose His Winchester Seat At The Next General Election”. As discussed above, his current Winchester seat won’t be there and he has a perfect right to stand for the Meon Valley seat.
I guess they actually mean will he be an MP but that isn’t what’s on offer as a bet.
Any of the experts out there have a view on what might or might not be paid out on?
Jack @ 37. Round here my guys call him Bloaten . .
36 Andrea. Shockingly that took you 5 minutes Andrea. Are you being distracted by Sky News coverage of Soames in his speedos.
41. Jack, I had to check if she stood for Scottish Parliament in 1999 or 2003.
Then it’s 4 minutes….I replied to Lewis too, so I read your not before 5:42!
The only problem with your point GeorgeH is that comparing the CC and GE figures it seems the ‘Mark effect’ may only work at the GE level. The Conservatives only polled about 90% of the votes in the GE that they did in the CC elections for the divisions representing Winchester, the Lib Dems about 10% more. So using the CC election results to predict Meon Valley is not too misleading I think. That said, I agree with your assessment that Meon Valley should be a comfortable Tory win, maj 3500 or so.
Also - 23. Aldershot is going to be safer Tory on the new boundaries, losing Yately wards.
25. I agree with Anthony that York Outer is likely to be Lib Dem, though it’s an odd one as there is an unusual tactical situation that inflates the Lib Dems votes in local elections - essentially a lot of Tory voters have been voting Lib Dem to get Labour out of the City Council
On a related topic, whilst the work of people such as Anthony and Mark Senior is invaluable to working out notionals, and something for which I think we will all be increasingly grateful as the GE approaches, I wonder if there is a reduction in tactical voting as people aren’t sure what will work tactically. (ie I’m a Tory voter in a new seat, previously I voted Lib Dem against Labour, but now I’m not sure how the seat will look, and clearly I dont trust what anybody is telling me, so I’ll go safe and vote Tory.) Probably not a very significant effect, but I suspect that it might well be there…
One can only marvel at our genial host’s second job as Dr. Who, time travelling into 2008 and providing us with advance notification of Oatens defection to the Tories and seen in the caption picture in the Leader of the Oppositions House of Commons Office, talking to Cameroon. Oaten does have that effect on people …. zimmer frame and losing the will to live !!
That 5/4 on Oaten losing his seat suddenly looks tempting !!
Glad I got my source right.
New costituency with new name = fluid voting patterns in my view
44: Redistribution-generated uncertainty does have something of an effect on politically-aware voters such as yourself, and also on the parties’ activity. There can be shifts away from tactical voting, such as in the newly drawn St Albans seat in 1997, where Labour would not have bothered running a strong campaign had the old seat (with Harpenden) still existed. I think the same was probably true in Colchester in 1997. In seats such as York Outer and FABS the best approach for anyone is probably to vote sincerely, because there isn’t really any reliable information on the tactical position. The results in the two seats of Dumfries and Galloway and DCT were also interesting from the point of view of uncertainty.
44 That is true and will work in the opposite way too . Much will depend on how convincing the Lib Dem Bar Charts are LOL . Being serious though many voters will take their cue from what the local press is saying ( whether right or wrong )and a sustained strong local campaign will create an impression too . I still can remember Michael Meadowcroft’s win in Leeds West with the block of flats spelling out his name one letter in apparently every window .
46 Peter. Have you seen Lib Dem bar charts in new seats ….. they make the Booker Prize winning novels appear as scientific factual certainties.
44.” wonder if there is a reduction in tactical voting as people aren’t sure what will work tactically. (ie I’m a Tory voter in a new seat, previously I voted Lib Dem against Labour, but now I’m not sure how the seat will look, and clearly I dont trust what anybody is telling me, so I’ll go safe and vote Tory.) ”
An similar one could be: I’m a Labour voter who tactically voted LD to keep the tory out, now I’m moved in a Lab/Con (or Lab/LD) seat and I’ll return to vote Labour.
York, outer should be Lib Dem, however currently there is a backlash against the Lib dem Council, and how they are running it.
Also in 2005 GE, Lib Dems did realy badly in Rydale, the Labour vote went up in this seat against the national trend.
Rydale takes in many superbs in outer York.
For Oaten to keep his seat it all depends on what type of candidate the tories put up against him-
In Guildford and Surrey South West the Tories put up v local candidates in ‘05 and increased their vote by 5000 in both. The Libs support remained static and thus failed to win either seat.
Sid. @ 52 Being v local didn’t help me against Oaten in ‘05. There’s a lot of history here for us to get over.
I see old Ted Heath left nearly £5.5 Million in his will ….. and not a penny piece to Rik. There’s gratitude for you !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4632094.stm
53 - George, how much impact has the decision to challenge the 1997 result had on things today?
Fair Comment GeorgeH - also the Lib majority does look much larger than we had in Guildford.
How was his campaign? In SW Surrey the Lib Dem guy used really low tactics.
BV. HUGE. Rather than facing a majority of 2 we ended up with 22,000. Not only that, Malone ended up looking like a bad loser and that washed across the whole local organisation. When I got involved in 1999/2000 we had eroded down to 9 councillors (from 45 a few years before) and it’s taken five long years to get that back up to 22 and NOC at Winchester City Council (co-terminous with the constituency).
That said, Martin baxter has us winning the seat next time on the old boundaries so perhaps things aren’t so bad . .
52 Please quote correct facts . In Guildford the Conservative vote increased by 2,775 and the Lib Dems by 1,890 . Your figure of 5,000 is less factual than a Lib Dem bar chart.
Sid. He played it very straight. I had the website debacle (you may or may not recall we bought markoaten.com and redirected it to my campaign site) to deal with which he took advantage of but that was my own fault.
I think he felt very secure and didn’t see the need for normal Lib Dem nonsense.
That said, we see a lot of cheap trickery in the locals.
26 - it’s not often I agree with George but on this occasion I think he’s spot on.
56 - oh yes. And i best the Tory campaign was falling over itself to be all fluffy, well-balanced and lovely;-)
53 GeorgeH. Ah the very George Hollingbery !! I note that there was a small tactical unwind back to Labour. Must have been one of the few seats to see a small Labour % increase at the GE. Are you contemplating standing again George ?
BTW welcome to the site.
56 Sid. You are funny !! It’s an election, it’s low and base ….. we voters expect no less and are rarely confounded.
69 Careful George , you will give the impression that in Winchester the dirty tricks were played by the Conservatives . Did Cheadle take lessons from you LOL .
I see Huhne steadily creeps upwards in the Lib Dem leadership odds.
I’m already a few hundred up on the spread betting and I think he will climb higher yet.
Vibes from the Campbell camp are that Huhne is picking up a fair proportion of the activists although they don’t think he’s yet breaking through to the armchair members.
Before it went down his website had about twice as many supporters listed as Hughes’ site.
Thanks Jack. Couldn’t help peek in when Oaten entered the LD fray. Sort of grows on you this site doesn’t it . .
That Labour increase was one of the great surprises. It never gives me much pleasure to look at the GE ‘05 fugures and note that though the records show a 2.x% (in trepidation of Mark S telling me I’m a tenth of a percent out) swing from LD to Con, that’s actually nonsense. It was Labour and UKIP who took votes off Mark. I guess tactical unwind is the only conclusion but how come it hadn’t happened in ‘01 pre Iraq etc.
Re. standing again . . . if they’ll have me.
64 - Welcome to the site George , it can be fun on here at times especially with those who take politics a little too seriously LOL
64 George. “Sort of grows on you this site doesn’t it..”
Like a rash ?????????
I have to say it’s the perfect antedote to more worldly matters like making money prosaicly from writing, the markets and the estate.
…… and where apart from prison, brothels and the asylum could you meet such a diverse mob as our little community !!
JAck. The French Foreign Legion, the Uni. Bar, a cold parish hall on a wet Wenesday attending a political AGM
67 GeorgeH. Interesting I didn’t realize that parish halls in Winchester had already implemented governmemt brothel policy on 2 prostitutes and a maid !! …. surely George you don’t have a little white pinny and duster.
increase at the GE. ”
jack, there were some seats with Labour down in third place where they’ve increased their % last may.
Ryedale, Torbay, Kingston & Surbiton, Brentwood & Ongar, Islwyn, Cornwall North, Ribble Valley, Isle of Wight, Winchester, New Forest West, Tiverton & Honiton, Lewes, Hazel Grove, Skipton & Ripon, Harrogate & Knaresborough,,Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Stratford on Avon,Penrith & The Border,Berwick-upon-Tweed, Romsey,,Christchurch, Airdrie and Shotts, Wells, Sheffield Hallam.
And a couple of others too.
67/68 George. Talking of pinnys and the like I see that the SNP is having apron trouble :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2781359.stm
69 Andrea. Thanks, a few more than I thought.
69 - Thanks Andrea - Many but not all of these are safe Lib Dem seats in 2001 where perhaps Labour supporters felt it was safe to not vote tactically .
56. A Lib Dem moaning about low tactics.
So Ironic, it’s funny.
64. This site is addictive George. Cost me loads in lost earnings I reckon.
Campbell and Hughes’ upsides and downsides have been explored and discussed pretty exhaustively here, so I think whoever can give a good account of Huhne’s advantages and shortcomings in this race would be doing us all a good service. Let’s hear something more than the fact that he was an MEP and has a narrow majority.
69.
Was it because they were Labour voters, who thought it wasn`t worth a light tactical voting in these seats.
So just voted for their first choice, as there was no chance of unseating the incumbent.
Or was it keep the Tory out has finaly diminished.
72 - Get with it woody , Sid is a Conservative who thinks 2775 is around 5000 .
70/71. Just to complete, the other increase in Labour % were in:
Dumfries and Galloway, St Helens South, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Southwark North & Bermondsey, Bassetlaw, Ealing Southall, Wyre Forest, Birmingham Perry Barr, Inverclyde.
Some are easily to explain (in St Helen many voters already switched in 2001; the same thing in Wyre Forest, in Ealing S there was an Independent who confused everything in 2001,..).
76 Don’t forget the Scottish figures were based on notional figures for 2001 and the Dumfries ones in particular are now thought to have been wrong .
75. I apologise Mark and Sid. Speed reading at its worst.
77. yes. And Perry Barr result could be explain with the big swing in 2001.
Huhne appears to be good news for the tories, given his European views. Having not taken much notice of him before I have to say that he doesn’t inspire me into voting lib dem once more next time.
Does he appeal to activists in some way as I can’t see any appeal to the common or garden voter?
It’s Ming or Hughes to at least have a chance of keeping my vote, still thinking that Hughes would appeal most to those whose votes are most likely to be wavering next time.
79 Thats ok woody , I had my blonde or too much baccardi moment earlier on in the thread .
Lewis, my view is that the Conservatives would have just hung onto St. Alban’s in 1997 on its old boundaries (ie including Harpenden, and excluding London Colney). What do you think? I think that the creation of an extra seat in Hertfordshire meant the County split 6:5 Conservative: Labour, whereas it would have been 6:4 on the old boundaries (though the Tory lead in Hertsmere would have gone right down to 1,000 - 1,500).
Huhne is the only candidate the Cons should fear IMO.
80 - There is still a bit more than a months campaigning for the candidates to expand and expound on their policies and impress or otherwise the membership and general public . I still have a fairly open mind but as with KC think Ming is too old so my current order which is not set in stone is Hughes , Huhne , Campbell .
The psephology aside, isn’t it rather odd that this market has opened up? Doesn’t it suggest the bookies think there is a major risk not of Oaten losing his seat in four years time but rather of him not contesting it all? Defection, or resignation due to some sort of scandal? It all seems very suspicious to me.
Andrea well spotted. A feature of the last election was the number of seats where LDs would have expected to squeeze the Labour vote in third place and either squeezed it feebly ( Weston super Mare) or where the Labour vote actually rose in third place. The Cheadle by election showed that the LDs can still put in an effective third party squeeze on Labour but they dismally failed to do so in a number of constituencies at the GE where they badly needed to do so. This undoubtedly cost them seats.
The irony is that the Labour vote collapsed over to them in their two Party contests. My guess is that they were badly overstretched, having a number of seats to defend plus a whole lot of targets and couldn’t mobilize the resources on the ground to persuade Labour voters to switch.
33 - Hmm, I see it as completely the opposite. The only one that was a danger was Oaten and now he’s toast (I almost felt sorry for Opik, whinging pathetically on five live early this morning, well for five minutes anyway….)
The attack on Huhne is blindingly obvious - ‘ex MEP, beholden to Europe, don’t give his party your vote, especially as it might give them coalition making power’.
84 - but what will Huhne have going for him in the time that is left? What are his advantages over the other two?
Brent East showed that the Lib Dems can put a third party squeeze on the Tories (as indeed Labour can in the East End when faced with a challenge from Respect).
FPTP always pressurises people to choose between two alternatives (which may often be a choice of evils in the voters’ eyes).
88 - Hi Peter , that is what he has to show us . I must say I am a little wary of the movement of prices on Betfair . It does not take a great deal of money to move his odds to at least temporarily into 2nd place ahead of Hughes , and I do wonder how much of that sort of thing goes on .
BM, it must be hard in some areas, where the Labour vote is reduced to the real die-hards, to persuade them to switch.
This may have already been referred to, apologies if so.
La Toynbee’s Guardian article today suggests, as I believe, that the lib dem’s best chances lie in isolating new labour and tories on the right.
Okay, it’s Toynbee but even a stopped clock is right twice a day……
Hmmm, the link didn’t post - try again…..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1690766,00.html
mike where did you get that photo of ming and oaten together?
red flag. 94. That is not very nice - but quite funny. If you look at the picture both men are talking but neither is listening.
95 - they are probably arguing over a comb.
94/95/96. A bit slow there, see 45.
88 - Simply that people who haven’t seen him before will see him. That could make or break him, but the same doesn’t really apply to Hughes or Campbell who members know and already have a view on - they can only blow it or hold their ground to an extent.
97 - That’s why I never got my jokes on Spitting Image
98 - Okay, but I am really interested to hear what qualities he might play upon and promote: what Huhne has going for him that members will take to when told of them.
87 - Huhne is the only candidate (of the 3) who has the potential to take the chances of Tory success out of their own hands. If the best that you can come up with as a line of attack is his pro-Europeanism then the Libs should leap at him like a shot. Cameron will not want to get involved in discussing Europe during a general election (which he would have to do A LOT, to make the public even mildly aware of Huhne’s opinions) - why do you think he made the EPP pledge? - to shut down Europe completely as a topic within his party. Discussing Europe does one main thing - drives voters to UKIP.
Meanwhile Huhne represents a grave threat to Cameron’s green/liberal posturing - because he will offer a direct threat to what he is trying to achieve by floating those issues.
99 book value. My dear Philip you are far too erudite for Spitting Image. Try that QI show …… that Stephen Fry chap is really quite good at spotting talent.
101 - I’m speaking as an undecided floating voter. The only things that have filtered through regarding Huhne are Green taxes and Europe. If that’s his main thrust it isn’t exactly designed to appeal to floating voters, just die hards.
Frankly, voters of all stripes appear to be taking a harder stance against Europe, fairly or unfairly. Again, discussing a more Eurosceptic policy would help Cameron to win voters back from UKIP not drive them away surely!
Has anyone seen how god awful Dr Carrie’s website for the Dumfermline byelection is? It takes you directly to off-shoot pages from the Scottish Tories site and has virtually no information on at all - embarrasingly enough nothing on the policies page. And the Tories wonder why they can’t win by-elections.
99 - It’s the time of year, now that spring is in the air
When those two wet gits, with their girly curly hair
Make another song, for moronic holidays
that nausiate-ate-ates in a million different ways
100 - Peter, brains. And strong views on the Environment.
It is http://www.vote4carrie.com by the way
106. Tone, considering she has been selected today, she hasn’t probably started to update it.
Anyway there’re some MPs still without a website (like Dennis Skinner).
103 - if you try and win votes by putting forward a Eurosceptic (in comparison to your opponents) policy then you invite people who will let their vote be decided by such things to run towards any party even more Eurosceptic than yourselves.
Similarly Huhne’s environmental stance has the potential to undermine Cameron’s green positioning - people who will be influenced by such things may well prefer to take the real thing. (it should be noted that Huhne’s prospectus proposed tax cuts in other areas to compensate).
107 - Andrea, try clicking on this one
109. Tabman, nothing can beat the Widdy Web!
http://www.annwiddecombemp.com/
Jim Fitzpatrick’s website is so depressing:
http://www.jimfitzpatrickmp.co.uk/
She shouldn’t be dong it - the campaign team should!
110 - is “Jim Fitzpatrick” the name of some goth/industrial band? It looks like it from the website.
It’s unlikely that a full website can be produced in a matter of hours. If there isn’t a comprehensive website by Tuesday and Wednesday, then her campaign team can be accused of backsliding.
108 - It would appear that Cameron has worked out that silence over Europe loses votes to UKIP but a clear position would at the very least be neutral with possible vote gains from both UKIP and labour.
Cameron’s green positioning is to make conservative voters feel positive rather than grab committed green votes surely? The mood music that helps to enthuse your base. Again, Huhne focusing on this would be neutral. Maybe votes are there to take from labour and greens though, those who really do want to see environmental action.
Huhne is more of a threat to labour, I can’t see where he’s a tory threat at all. Campbell maybe because of the traditionalist appeal, Oaten would have been but he’s gone.
211. Labour has still to choose the candidate (tonight), ley alone open a site.
The SNP’s coverge of the by-election is this:
http://www.snp.org/elections/localbyelections/snp_page.2006-01-14.5201719662
The Libdems are offline at the moment:
http://www.dunfermlinelibdems.org.uk/
108 - On the same reckoning, though, wouldn’t Huhne’s posiitoning risk boosting Green votes?
Labour’s website will very probably owe much to this site:
http://www.cstihlermep.com/
I’ve just posted my summary of week two of the leadership contest
117 - “Under reconstruction”, eh? You may be onto something…
The Lib Dems did have a site up at one point, honest!
The SNP has stolen from the Libdems the description of Labour candidates as “Tony Blair’s Labour candidate”:
http://www.snp.org/snpnews/2005/snp_press_release.2006-01-20.7922442318
119. Cathrine Sthiler is the favourite to get the nomination tonight. it’s not a secret.
Labour Party even gave her the chance to keep her Euro-seat until the election (just in case something will go wrong on Feb 9th)
On the front page of the SNP website you can log in by supplying your Benutzername and Passwort.
http://www.snp.org/
I’m no expert, but I don’t think this is Gaelic.
Green Party expose Nuclear opinion poll media shocker.
http://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2376
The Greens say that following a Mori poll: “Various newspapers and websites including The Telegraph, The Guardian, Channel 4 News and BBC News cite that 54 per cent of people interviewed would be willing to support new build nuclear power stations.
In fact, 78 per cent agreed that promoting renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, is a better way of tackling climate change than nuclear power. Only 9 percent maintained that the number of nuclear power stations should be increased while 84 per cent believe that nuclear power creates dangerous waste and 70 per cent believe it is a hazard to human health.”
122. and you can asj help in case of “passwort vergessen”!
123 - I hope the 16% of people who don’t think nuclear power creates dangerous waste are not in charge of nuclear power stations. Or operate heavy machinery. Or have driving licences.
122. uhm. the SNP shop offers lots of great products: a Black SNP umbrella, a Yellow SNP umbrella or a Blue Europe SNP umbrella? It’s a difficult decision!
126 It does rain a bit in Scotland, Andrea. Ask Jack.
127 - it rains in Hertforshire too.
128 But hurricanes are rare, apparently
128. Tabman, do the Libdems sell Yellow LD umbrella or do you have to use non-partisan umbrella?
130 Campbell tartan these days, Andrea!
131. A bit vintage, Peter!
That’s an interesting article from Polly Toynbee. The SDP really did almost pull it off (once). Their problem was they comprised almost every aspect of the political spectrum, from lefties like her, to people on the far right.
The French think it is chic: who am I to argue?
130 - you have to stretch your John Hemming T-shirt over your head if you want to keep dry.
134. Peter. Being vintage doesn’t mean not being chic!
135. Book Value. Just in Birmingham and for female Libdems or for all?
100 - I think the attraction is that he’s actually come out and talked about concrete policies instead of being magisterial (Ming), spouting impressive-sounding waffle (Oaten) or making a bee-line for our collective g-spots (Hughes). Didn’t work for me, but it sems to have impressed a lot of people. Plus, we’re Lib Dems - we like an underdog.
115 - All the Lib Dem sites hosted by Prater Rains (including the company’s own one, Chris Huhne’s site, my local party’s in Hounslow and about 200 others) have been down today. I initially supposed a DOS attack but there’s talk now that it’s just a simple server failure.
Caption Comp.
Oaten: “No health insurance? Get out of here.”
Elderly Man: “Is that what you call Liberalism?”
Oaten: “Tough.”
135 - I think you can get male John Hemming T-shirts as well, though I couldn’t guess their sales figures.
It’s the tornadoes you need to beware of in Birmingham.
139.”It’s the tornadoes you need to beware of in Birmingham. ”
do you mean when Clare Short comes back home angry with St Tony?
140 Andrea. No Andrea, when the pissed up chavs pour out of the Brum curry houses on Friday night ……. in fact in a couple of hours time !! …. that’s the wind of change in Birmingham.
BTW I note I didn’t win the £87 Million in the Euro Lottery tonight …… bugger I’ll just have to work on the allottment for another week ….. do you have to buy a ticket ????
141. Jack, do you have some news concerning the Dunfermline and West fife Labour selection? When the confirmation is expected?
138. Mark had found a 197th person to sign his nomination papers, but time was running out.
137. yes, I think it’s the policy factor - Ming is coming out with concrete policies next week, although I’m ambivalent about going too far down the policy road when there are commissions going on - I’d thought Ming’s emphasis on values rather than concrete policies was a good one(and made him look less prescriptive than Huhne).
142 Andrea. Yes, as you indicated earlier Catherine Stihler has been selected as the Labour candidate. I understand it was practically a walkover.
144. so it’s official. No news report has came out yet to make it official.
She had no serious competion anyway.
133 I believe the SDP would have been a long term success if they had not involved themselves with Liberals, who were an electoral liability and weakened the message.
Their appeal would have made them the most successful party in British history. They were afterall a John Smith/Blair (pre 1997) New Labour prototype.
Roy Jenkins’ and Shirley Williams’ enthusiasm to form an alliance and then merge with Liberals ruined any chances of success. The double act of tweedle dum and tweedle dee of Owen and Steel was destined for failure.
Steel and his followers then had the nerve to betray the SDP by calling for merger and then denying Owen, Cartright and Barnes and thousands of others the right to continue in the party they chose to be in, surely a basic human right in a democracy.
In my view, the SDP should not have got involved in the Liberals. It was obvious Liberals were out for what they could get. They would have been badly squeezed and SDP would have had continued good news of mass defections up to the 1983 election day and Labour would have been pushed into 3rd place in the popular vote.
1/3 of Scotts Labour MPs ready to join school rebels.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2002676,00.html
145 Andrea. I’m head of the JBC (Jacobite Broadcasting Company) and my sources among those in the know are unimpeachable - the cleaning lady. I’d bet Tabman’s collection of rock n roll sheet music on it !!
More boring I’m afraid in reality ….. I was chatting to a Scottish journo a couple of hours ago !!
147 - I think the West Lothian question is going to become more and more of an electoral issue. Especially if Brown becomes PM.
146 - Intersting post Printz - we are now surely entering the twighlight zone?
I believe the majority of SDP members voted for merger and it was the undemocratic minority (on both sides) who tried to carry on.
Strange you don’t mention Michael Meadowcroft?
Top marks though for the maddest analysis of the night tho’ - keep it up.
149 ukpaul. I am naturally impartial on this issue …… just remember that well known poltical adage of Churchillian profundity :
“Sun readers don’t care who runs the country as long as she’s got big knockers !!”
Sums up the West Lothian question IMO.
151. Jack, I’m not sure Brown has big knockers
I believe the majority of SDP members voted for merger and it was the undemocratic minority (on both sides) who tried to carry on.
Exactly. They had every right to form a new party, but the original SDP had by its own democratic procedures decided to join the Lib Dems. For the same reason, the Meadowcroft gang are not the “original” Liberal party, however large and garish a font they use to proclaim it on their hilarious website.
152 Andrea. Well Andrea I’m not on such intimate terms as you and Pritz with politicians Brent East and nether garments !!
149-ukpaul
I think you are right.
In the last week alone Simon Hughes has raised it as part of his Leadership bid,Kenneth Baker is attempting to put a private members bill through the House of Lords and the Dour one’s speach last weekend was a clear attempt to try and push it off the agenda.
153 book value. A little tiff amongst the “Liberal” brethren there !! Tut tut …. fancy squabbling over the heart and soul of the tofu recipes ….. it’s rather unseemly amongst historic bar chart chums.
Exactly Jack W, we are the People’s Front of Tofu, not those splitters in the Tofuan People’s Front.
[149, 155] If you’re right, I’d expect a “London Independence” candidate to win the Mayoralty in 2012 - the economic parallel is very striking, and the demographics fit. Don’t start what you can’t finish - no one thought Singapore was a nation until it seceded from Malaysia.
157 book value. What a difference in “an”(al).
And on that bum note folks ….. G’nite …. Zzzzzzzzzz
157. oooh…now I want to see a court battle over the name, the symbol, the rosette, everything….here we do this for every splits we’ve (so lots of them).
73, 88 and others - why Huhne has so much support - unlike Campbell and Hughes Chris Huhne is picking up lots of support in his own back yard. This is because the people who have seen his campaigning on the ground like what they have seen. In contrast just about anybody who has been involved with a major campaign with hughes is backing either Campbell or Huhne!
Chris is very strong on policy - his views are in the mainstream of the party but he backs them up with an understanding of economic policy which is rare in the party.
He has been a well known campaigner in the south east for many years. He fought a Reading seat in 83 and turned Oxford West & Abingdon into a marginal in 87.
He won the number 2 position on the south east euro list behind Emma Nicholson in 1998 largely due to the positive impression he made on the hustings.
Once elected he ran a highly effective communications strategy within the party and to the local and regional media. He ran region wide capaigns on animal welfare, human rights and EU reform. He made extensive use of his website and email campaigning, was assiduous at constituency visits and picked up on a range of big local issues.
As a result he was selected top of the list for the 2004 election by a wide margin in 2002.
At Charles Kennedy’s request he chaired the Commission on Public Services in 2003 and skillfully brought together the various strands of thought in the party to a position all could accept.
He also has a good understanding for campaign strategy, developing messages adn picking effective people around him.
50 and 53 No! No! No! No! No!
You are quite wrong. We all have a right to be in a party of our choice. If the majority of Labour voted to join another party, do you think for one minute every single member of Labour has to do so, including even the leader? That is a nonsense.
If the majority of Politicalbetting.com “members” vote to merge with Polling Report, do you think our wonderful host has no option but to do so? That would be a takeover, infringing on Mr Smithson’s rights.
Dan you may say that is “mad” but it makes me mad when others tell people if they can or cannot be in a political party of their choosing. If the majority wanted to merge, then good for them, but they have no right to protest and claim anything illegitimate about those who want to remain, however inconvenient that may be for their plans.
As for Michael Meadowcroft, he was not worth mentioning in context of what I was saying about the SDP, but are you seriously saying the few Liberal Councillors that are around now have no right to be so?
62.Printz. Yes, yes, yes. We inherited the debts as well as the assets of both parties. The membership of both parties voted to merge. To all intents and purposes that means that we are the original party - in the same way as if pb.c and another site that merged would be the originals, and any new site of Mike’s would be just that. A new site - even if he called it pb.c.
The members who didn’t come into the Liberal Democrats resigned from the party - not the other way around. They then chose to go and set up their own parties - happening to call them ‘The Liberal Party’ and ‘The SDP’. The fact that they chose those names does not make them the continuation, just as if I chose to call myself, say, Sean Connery would not make me the multi-millionnaire former James Bond.
162, 163. Surely the difference is that with a political party the members are the party - ie they effectively own it.
The position with pb.c is completely different. The people who use pb.c in no way own it. Mike Smithson personally owns it 100%. It is his personal property. He therefore decides 100% what it does. No one else has any say.
That is not to say that lots of people who use pb.c could not defect and set up something else. They could but it would not be pb.c.
130 - No umbrellas, I’m afraid, but you can try these:
http://www.cafepress.com/liberalfun
http://www.libdemimage.co.uk/
Who should be the next Lib Dem leader? This is the result (so far) of one opinion poll:
Ming Campbell 2
Ming The Merciless 31
Simon Hughes 201
Emlyn Hughes 3
Mark Oaten 1
An Oat-cake 3705
My mum 2400
http://www.omrlp.com
164 I agree with the point you make about Politicalbetting, but what moral right do a small majority have to tell the rest that they must abandon a party they have devoted many years of their time and effort into developing and campaigning for the party.
As for ownership, we are surely talking about hijacking. If the party belongs to the members and 60% want to go and form a new party, then what right do they have to 100% of the assets? What right to they have to take the name when they don’t want to use it anyway? And don’t forget David Sainsbury still bankrolled the SDP after the merger. Should he have been told what he could or couldn’t do with his own money? That he couldn’t give it to the party of his choice? And David Owen couldn’t belong to the party of his choice?
I do not believe there was anything in the SDP constitution, or in any existing party saying: “And if members vote in a ballot to merge the party with another party, the party must be wound-up forthwith and the continued use of the party name will be disllowed and politicians in the party must no longer