Will Galloway be voted out?
January 23rd, 2006
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Respect MP at 0.22/1 for the next Big Brother eviction
In what looks like his first electoral test since taking Bethnal Green and Bow from Labour’s Oona King at the General Election George Galloway could be voted out of the Big Brother house on Wednesday.
We do not normally cover “Big Brother” on PB.C and do not claim any expertise on the programme - but the role of Respect’s only MP puts this into the political arena and there’s little doubt that there will be political consequences following his appearance in the programme.
The latest developments in the show make him the odds-on favourite in the betting to be booted out next. Betfair have him at 0.22/1.
Galloway went into the “Big Brother House”, apparently, in the expectation that he could attack the Tony Blair for hours on end and have a large young audience. As it has turned out the producers have managed to blank out much of his political commentary and what has been seen is the MP doing humiliating tasks.
I cannot help but sense that Galloway’s likely eviction is not going to be the end of the story for the MPs. Does he realise yet, for instance, that much of what he has said has been blanked out?
Watch this space.
Mike Smithson
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“In what looks like his first electoral test since taking Bethnal Green and Bow from Labour’s Oona King at the General Election George Galloway could be voted out of the Big Brother house on Wednesday.”
actually his first test after having thrown Oona out was the survival of his first BB nomination.
Anyway, I know it has already been posted, but the full picture is even better:
http://213.215.144.81/public_html/images/4/4_george-galloway_calzamaglia.jpg
I don’t mind if he gets booted or not. I’ve invested heavily in him on Celebdaq and so would love a Bethnal Green by-election
Interesting final prediction on the election in Canada from a quite informative web site for those of us who know little of Canadian politics
http://democraticspace.com/blog/predictions/
Final Prediction
CONSERVATIVE 128
LIBERAL 94
BLOC QUÉBECOIS 56
NDP 29
INDEPENDENT 1
My personal favourite moment re. the current series of Celebrity Big Brother was Jeremy Paxman reading out the newspaper headline ‘Chantelle beds Preston’ and sighing ‘Someone out there must know what that’s about’.
Paxman - Genius! I know most people will disagree, but I find him unbelieveably entertaining!
3. Another final prediction - this one is better for the Conservatives:
http://info.wlu.ca/LISPOP/lispop.htm
Conservative 140
Liberal 78
Bloc 56
NDP 33
Independent 1
3 6
Mark Steyn’s prediction
http://www.steynonline.com/index2.cfm?edit_id=23
6. Another one (already posted in the previous thread):
http://www.electionprediction.org/
They got 87.58% of the seats right last time-
Mike, I thought you were trying to lead us away from talking about turds.
I love the picture of the Conservative Candidate for Nanavut.
I can see two interesting questions:
a) Are there good odds on these markets? (Are there lots of people putting money on who they want to win, rather than believe will win?)
b) Could the right politician do themselves and the political class in general a power of good. If so, who could do it?
In (b) I meant by appearing on BB.
10. That’s one hell of a big constituency for the number of voters!
I wonder if the local Liberals are campaigning with the slogan of ‘It’s a two dog-sled race’?
14 Maybe they have dodgy ice-o-bar charts?
14 Stephen B. Or “Snowing Here” !!
114 - It’s a very safe Liberal seat bit equivalent in British terms to Orkney and Shetlands .
To return to the Lib Dems story; Simon Hughes & a boyfriend - I will offer 100/1 to anyone who says he hasn’t got one. This story was worse hidden than Portillo’s escapades when a student. Ask any party activist.
Now this “news” didn’t stop him becoming popular in the party membership because of his tolerant and liberal views. So why the party should desert him in favour of Campbell is a mystery to me.
Are all Lib Dem voters worried about the Lib Dems becoming a “party of pinkos”? I think not, given Hughes’ high profile, I think he’s a good bet at current prices.
I could do with some of this for my pile in Scotland !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4640566.stm
There’s the UBC Election Stock Market, which updates every 20mins. Currently:
Con:127
Lib:93
Bloc:54
NDP:33
Oth:1
19 - Jack, I assume that you are untroubled by the prospect of uppity tenants forcing a sale upon you under the Land Reform Act? Or have you evicted them all already in anticipation of such a move?
Betfair now have a market on the Dunfermline byelection .
I have 20 quid on GG at 14.1 to win BB. I though this type of event was perfect for George’s portfolio of skills. What has he done to get nominated for eviction?
22. Not very developed yet though. It’s a shame that the bet is on the winning party which ought to be beyond much doubt, when there’s a far more interesting battle to finish second.
21 Stephen. I normally spit roast the odd tenant or two on Burns Night to keep them in line. For some reason they’ve gone to ground this week.
My pile hasn’t had a tenant for donkeys. The farm is in hand and the rest is sporting and the Factor and other estate staff take care of that easily.
I knew it was a bad idea for the plebs to be allowed on board ship. Never happened when the Dowager Lady Jack W sailed on the old Queen Mary and Normandie !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4640436.stm
19. I always thought Dunvegan meant ‘no longer pursuing a vegetarian diet’.
26
The trouble arises not from filling the ship with plebs but from treating them as such.
My forecast for Canada is:
Con 160
Bloc 66
Lib 52
NDP 28
Green 1
Ind 1
Con maj of 16
28 somewhatanon. How do the plebs know any different !! In the good old days they’d be cabin staff and maids and knew their place.
I’ll write to Mr Baldwin and complain.
18 The problem, surely, is denying that he’s gay?
I do hope that Jack is aware of the colloquial use of spit roast these days
I’m having to get up early for work tomorrow (9am meeting in Manchester, bah), so I expect to be looking at the live Canadian results at about 5am. What strikes me from the polls is that the Conservatives appear to be building up support mainly in three areas - Ontario outside of Toronto (which will be fruitful), Alberta (which will be about as useful as teats on a boar hog) and Québec (which will yield little in the short term). British Columbia looks likely to yield some excitment on the night with some exciting races in Vancouver and on the Island.
Obviously, I should be supporting the Liberals, but they are so sleazy that I can barely bring myself to say a favourable word. Bring back the Rhinoceros Party.
CPC 116 Libs 85 Bloc 64 NDP 32 Ind 1 and probably another election within 18 months as the CPC and the Bloc get on sooooo well.
My forecast for Canada is snow and :
Nova Scotia Jacobite Party 280
Celon Dion Noise Abatement Society 5
Nanuk of the North Party 3
Charles De Gaulle Nose Party 3
Front for the Liberation of Newfoundland Dogs 2
Liberal Democrats (Winning Here) Not 1
32 Iain. “spit roast” - I get the local Lib Dem football team in for that !
Hughes now second favourite again.
Hughes 5.0
Huhne 5.2
The market seems very volatile given the absence of any new information.
The market tends to overreact, and revert to “normal” after a while, just as it did with Ming’s PMQ.
When people realise that there probably will be no Hughes scandal/his possible outing as gay met with a yawn, he will reach 4 again, whereas Huhne will go in the opposite direction to 6 or 7. Ming to stay in the same trading range as the last couple of days - 1.7-1.9 until we get a poll. Then Ming will clearly be the emperor and the remaining suspens disappear.
re 10: interesting insight into that part of Canada.
What’s the population density? Ten square miles per person? In England it’s nearly 1000 per square mile and rising. Unemployment 17% in 2001, that is high and the household income is low too when you consider it is Canadian Dollars and not US.
For the record, my projection is: Tories 134, Liberals 86, Bloc 56, NDP 31 and 1 nominal Independent. This leaves the Tories 20 short of an overall majority, with the two left-leaning parties + Bloc on 173. In other words, there *could* be a grand co-alition which keeps the Liberals in and Paul Martin as PM! Otherwise the Tories would have to somehow reach an agreement with the Bloc, which is plausible insofar as they have promised various bits of Quebecois autonomy already, e.g. seperate representation at international bodies like UNESCO, etc. The worst option would be to struggle on in minority, though I wouldn’t rule anything out for a first time politician within sniffing distance of power.
We shall see.
@36. Don’t count Huhne out of this one yet. I still feel he has a real chance of making the final two (and winning on second preference).
39 Chris. On the other hand I think Ming will win on the first count. Every day of scandal plays into the hands of the safe pair of hands option.
40 There is a fair amount of ramping going on from pro-Huhne bloggers today, as their hero overtook hughes. But on Betfair Hughes has caught up with Huhne again. Impossible to know if this is the ebb and flow of rumour or people manipulating the betting markets. (Anyone know how much money has been staked?)
Like Jack I am predicting Ming on first preferences - by a comfortable margin.
Isn’t it poignant to see all these Conservative posters so desperate to see the word ‘Tory’ coming in first somewhere that they’ve bought themselves maps of Canada!
42. Roger, I challenge you to go a week without posting a “look at all these Tories, the deluded evil fools” type comment. Try it - the topics are G*llow*y, Lib Dems and Canada right now. It’s not difficult to stick to them.
36. Jan - yes, that is exactly why “we” are able to make money off these markets. I think in a few weeks you’ll be proven perfectly right on all accounts.
Sorry Julian that’s too difficult. But I am prepared to go halves with you on a greyhound which we can call ‘Cameron’. That’ll keep the bookies busy
Ah, a fellow fan of the dogs. Excellent, count me in.
343.”I challenge you to go a week without posting a “look at all these Tories, the deluded evil fools” type comment. ”
Julian, he isn’t able. I once challenged him, but he failed after less than a day.
He challenged me not to mention ALan Duncan, Glenda Jackson and Bob Marshall Andrews for a week, but I failed too. I resisted for a couple of days, but then the torrorism bill reached the COmmons and BMA and Glenda started to pop up on my screen!
45. Sounds good. I’m in. Could form a PB.com syndicate.
……back to the Big Brother house. Is it true that Osborne has been told by Cameron that if his ‘no tax reduction bombshell fails he’s got to be next?
I think most Tories on here wish the Canadian Tories well in their elections - why would we wish to see the Canadian people suffer? - now that would be nasty. Interesting that John Howard was doling out advice to them, I think he sees himself as a Tory Grandmaster.
Ok back to rumours. Last year there was a very serious one about T Blair which all the newspapers had but none divulged.
“Interesting that John Howard was doling out advice to them”
Plenty of dog whisles? Perhaps he lent them his election guru like he did to Michael Howard. Now that WAS a good move!!
Roger - Im very intrigued, please do expand on this one..
It was a very private matter. I was just surprised and impressed that no newspapers broke ranks
Jeremy Paxman has “no idea what the head of Radio 4 is playing at”
(re their decision to drop traditional British music at 5.30am) and then said Newsnight were thinking of using the music instead before playing out the programme accordingly.
Not often the BBC gets criticised internally like that. Good for Paxman.
54 well, an hour of music over Paxman’s voice is an improvement of quality.
Just a note on Canada - I don’t think they do coalitions, they are quite used to minority governments… I expect the Liberals to bomb in B.C., because they run the Province and whoever does that usually gets a kicking Federally, but it’s anybody’s guess who’ll benefit…
51 - Actually, Roger, John Howard did indeed lend them his campaign manager of 2004. Not Lynton Crosbie, but Brian Loughnane.
54 - That is an outrage. I remember quite a few occasions being woken up by that weird mix of jigs and wotnot they do. A rare chance to make a coffee and enjoy the sunrise. Tragic.
50, the TB story was not about him but a member of his family. I think they were right to keep quiet.
Icarus. Yes I agree but isn’t it refreshing that it didn’t get out. If even I heard about it it must have been pretty widely known.
Anyone whose has never heard the full glory of the 5.30 wake up call on Radio 4 can hear it here.
http://www.sterlingtimes.org/music_themes20.htm
And obviously it’s an outrage! Etc, etc…
I hate those 5.30 tunes. They are just so depressing
Anyone know if there are any exit pols being published in Canada prior to close of poll on the west coast. All the national news folks CBC etc say they cant publish anything until after 10pm est but they sort of imply the infomation might be available elsewhere
It’s an outrage. It’s been my preferred wake-up call ever since I was young.
I apologise if my spelling of his name is incorrect, but was the story about Eoghan ‘Daddy sorted me out work experience at the senate’ Blair?
Special Bets’ Celebrity Big Brother Poll is out.. Galloway to be evicted with 58% of the vote! Dennis Rodman will follow up Galloway’s rear; http://specialbets.blogspot.com/2006/01/announcing-interim-results-of.html
Maximus-66. No it wasn’t. It was no kind of scandal but a very sad family matter which hopefully is behind them.I had actually forgotten about it.
O/T Canadian election results: Polls have already closed in some provinces, but due to election laws results cannot be transmitted in any way inside Canada until the last polls on the Pacific coast have closed. Staggered voting times means that most polls in Canada close at 2.30pm GMT, but British Columbia doesn’t finish until 3.00am, so there will be something of a lack of official results until then.
Those provinces where voting has finished aren’t seat rich anyway.
The first Lib Dem bar chart for the Dunfermlines and West Fife by-election has been released: http://www.dunfermlinelibdems.org.uk/
“The SNP, Tories and SSP are out of the race in third, fourth and fifthplace. They Cannot win here! Only Willie Rennie can beat Labour in Dunfermline and West Fife.”
Just posting this, as I know how you all just love these two-horse races.;-)
50, the TB story was not about him but a member of his family. I think they were right to keep quiet.
–
Agreed. It is not a public interest story.
Dave
67 - And I sincerely hope that nobody attempts to dig any further as there’s bound to be some idiot blogger who attempts to attach some spurious political link to it.
If you don’t want word of it to spread any further, wouldn’t it be wise to stop making surreptitious comments about it?
Here are the results for this month’s ICM poll for the Guardian:
Con: 37% (unchanged)
Lab: 36% (unchanged)
LD: 19% (down 2)
The report states that only 1/3 of the poll was completed on Sunday, after news of the Oaten scandal had broken.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,3605,1693412,00.html
Canada update - as you all know, no official results until 10pm EST (3am GMT), and even the Canadian Blogging Tories site is currently dormant. However, a US website, the Captain’s Quarters http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/ has some info (a bit like the French referendum last year when a Swiss website had the first accurate numbers). According to the Captain, the Liberals are leading the Conservatives by 42.9 to 39.7% in the Maritimes (Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island). The June 04 % splits Lib-Con were: Newf 48-32, NB 45-31, NS 40-28, PEI 52-31, so it’s clear that even in the strongly Liberal Maritimes, there has been a big swing to the Tories. He also reports that the Libs have won 19 seats so far in the Maritimes, the Tories 10 & the NDP 3. Four individual ridings get a mention (by looking up the seats of named candidates): Fredericton (NB) Lib hold (2004 maj 5,626 13%), Kings-Hants (NS) Lib hold (2004 maj 6,211 16%), St Johns South (Newf) Con hold (2004 maj 1,451 4%), & the superbly-named Tobique-Mactaquac (NB)CON GAIN (2004 Lib maj 3,008 9%). Anyway, not long to wait now before we get a flood of official results - will it be a Conservative minority or majority government, and if the Liberals are really in meltdown, could the BQ become the official Opposition?
Exit poll on Global National TV station in Canada says the Conservatives will be the largest party in a minority parliament.
CBC and CTV networks in Canada now projecting based on votes counted so far a Conservative minority government.
The Liberals seem to have done surprisingly well (under the circumstances (at 10:34 Eastern, they have won/are leading in 99 seats. Tories 116)
I find it amazing that people are prepared to vote for a bunch of obvious crooks. Hey ho, that’s Canada for you I guess.
78- Beggars belief, doesn’t it?
No, Matloc - There´s hope for you UK Tories yet……
Clearly a lot of Canadians in the east would rather have a bunch of crooks to a bunch of Americans…
80 - Quite right, John. Perhaps you holier-than-thou Lib Dems should take some lessons from your Crooked Canadian Cousins? Clearly, they could teach you a thing or two…
Perhaps they even won *their* Windsor?
Ontario…. ; :-> ;
;:->; Is that it?
I confess failure, but don´t quote me……… ; .-> ;
; :-> ;
What on earth are you doing with that smiley John? Is that a smiley with a side-parting and an uneven goatee beard?
Winning here! : :-> :
Almost…. ::->:
Not even close. Still, that must be a familiar spot for you…
These things used to work - but nothing is the same since Blair got in, is it? : :-> :
Has the soon-to-be former Liberal Prime Minister admitted defeat yet?
Never, Matlock, never…… Who are you talking about? Rik?
Ha! You see! We will not be overcome…..
Will we? Let´s see how that one worked……
Now, what was that about Ontario?
94 - Oh no, John. No, no - Rik was much closer in Sutton than you were in Windsor. You can do better than that, can’t you?
Looks like the Tories are actually going to lose seats in BC, despite their vote going up, NDP being the main winners (possibly going from 5 to 12/13 seats in BC).
98 - Ever the bearer of good news aren’t you, Chrisco?
But Windsor has been in Tory hands ever since it was first invented….
But it has to be admitted that the magic word “Rik” puts the world to rights and even these things :8 start to work (or not as the case may be) - but again, please don´t quote me. 
100 - Ah, yes John. But, Rik will probably be an MP after the next election. And where will you be?
Anywhere that will have me!
102 - Good man. Would you mind dropping me a line on alastairmatlock@gmail.com ? I would like to take your mind on something, if you will permit me.
Tell you what boys, I feel like I’ve stumbled across one of these dodgy chat rooms the tabloids go on about. Sitting up all night studying the CANADIAN election results makes Oaten’s perversions seem mild in comparison…
104 - Tell you what laddie - that’s rather a dodgy sense of proportionality you’ve got there if that’s what you think….
You have a fair point Lurker, but in my defence I am in the USA… (Although that’s not to say that that I wouldn’t be up watching were I back in Blighty…)
103 (and by that of course I meant as far away from the UK as I can get!)
Your wish is my command m’Lord…
I’ve just woken up to go to Manchester in an hour or so.
Well, the Tories have done much better in Québec than I thought possible, a truly outstanding recovery in La Belle Province.
NDP have done very, very well in British Columbia, but that’s BC for you, it can be quite strange at times.
Some very odd results out there, but Canada has multiple “Western Isles” type seats.
107 - Grand. Might have to wait until later on today to respond though. I’d best go to bed before Lurker sets the News of the World after me…
Yes Galloway will be out. TWO candidates are being voted out of three (although they don’t know yet) and one is runaway favorite Chantelle. I would say without suspicious voting it is near impossible Galloway would survive. This Chantelle girl instantly captured the hearts of the viewers.
I believe Galloway will seek his right of redress for what has been said about him while he has been in BB. He will be doing the chat show rounds and TV and radio to do that and I expect he’ll show Bethnal Green and Bow he still loves them. I’m sure he will milk it for all he can.
I think he could do a lot more to get his message across after coming out of BB than while inside. He must have some good answers up his sleeve to why he deserted his constituents. The only problem will be each time he’s on a TV interview, they will play the cat scene or the leotard dance scene, as the used to play the “infatigability” Saddam scene.
A surprisingly poor result for BQ (down 6%), and a better than deserved result for the Canadian Liberals. It’s hard to see how any government can be formed on the back of this result.
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