ICM puts the Lib Dems at 19%
January 24th, 2006THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CUT - A STATMENT WILL BE PUT ON THE SITE THE SITE DURING THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 28/29
The latest survey from ICM, has the following 
shares in its monthly survey for the Guardian - CON 37%(-2): LAB 36%(+1) LD 19%(-1). The comparisons are with the ICM News of the World Survey nine days ago.
Surveying took place from Friday to Sunday so only about a third of those interviewed would have been aware of the rent boy allegations against the former leadership candidate, Mark Oaten.
[EDITED]
Meanwhile in the Lib Dem leadership betting the money has been going on Ming Campbell who has now tightened to 0.65/1. Simon Hughes is now just ahead of Chris Huhne.
Mike Smithson
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Maybe this is something that the paper’s Jackie Ashley ought to take up?
Nice try, but I think pollsters have already been accepted into the “elite commentariat” so they are legitimate according to our Jackie.
Another poll overstating Labour, Mike? This is becoming a habit. Any more results like this and I’ll ignore polls altogether and just ask a few mates accross at Groucho’s
Are Labour really going to be on much less than 36% - I am not sure that many voters would desert labour just yet…
Mike, are you going to close down your position’s on Huhne for a nice profit or hold out to the end regardless?
Roger 2 - When was it that we had a poll that when tested against real results understated Labour?
I had a spread bet at £1000 a point on the Labour party share at the General election. The spreads were lower than most of the polls at the time yet I still had a nice pay-day.
Nick - rest assured I’ve taken quite a lot out of my Huhne position. I was up £7,000 at one stage - that’s now at about £1500.
Tory honeymoon over? 1 poll said Lds on 15% - they say we’re imploding. 2% down (as I predicted) am I legitimately allowed to say ‘honeymoon over’, back in your box by Christmas.
I don’t believe this poll. We Lib Dems are far too high. And the Tories are having a honeymoon while we are imploding. Surely they cannot only be on 37%?
Hughes seems to have recovered quite markedly. At one stage yesterday he was well behind Huhne.
And what about ‘this far away country of which we know little’…..
Not only has the ‘Cameron effect’ swept the Tories into first place but our Canadian brothers they have said they might even modify their homophobia!
[7] Not sure Mr Harper is to be envied… 30 seats short of a majority and no obvious natural allies. Does anyone know what’s going on with Michael Ignatieff - why does he want to run the country? Admittdely he’s an MP and there’s a vacancy for Liberal Party leader (in Canada :roll:) but he’s Anglophone and it’s the Francophones’ turn, surely?
Many thanks to last night’s insomniacs - your chit-chat was a pleasure to read this morning :lol:)
Mike. To be serious……In the final poll before the last election ALL the pollsters were spot on. During the campaign they were all over the place generally giving Labour much larger leads that they ended up with…….
Isn’t the conclusion that their samples were right, their methodology was right but that either respondents changed their minds during the campaign or that they were undecided until the final three days or that they were themselves influenced by the polls. In other words when it looked like Labour were in for a huge majority they stayed at home or voted Lib D? I can see no other answer that makes sense.
[8] To answer my own question - according to Wikipedia, Ignatieff, who is even older than I am :roll:, is a C.I.A. plant (well that’s not how they put it) - if GWB can’t persuade Blair to send British troops to die in Iran, the fallback seems to be to send Canadian ones instead…
Mike Why are you comparing with the ICM poll for the NOW? Didn’t the last Guardian ICM poll show Con 40 Lab 31? On another subject the polls in Canada were almost smack on for the Conservatives 36.25 against 37 in the last two polls but there appears to have been a last minute squeeze of the NDP by the Liberals which gave the latter three points more than the 27 in the last polls.
If I remember before the last election the polls said Lib Dem voters split 2 to 1 in favour of Labour given the choice of only Tory and Labour. This could well be a reason why the Lib Dem problems don’t instantly transfer to votes for the New Tories. And as I said yesterday I’m sure a large part of the Lib Dem vote is a negative one which therefore isn’t affected by any internal problems
9. You seem to have fallen for the pollsters’ propaganda Roger. But not all the polls swung around wildly during the campaign - the YouGov vote shares were relatively stable. The problem is methodology, which is increasingly complex and varies a great deal between the pollsters. During a GE, the multiple adjustments they make for factors like likelihood to vote, past vote, spirals of silence etc. may become unstable, exacerbating the volatility that anyway comes from a flawed sampling method (the phone). Having said that, I’m sure voters are influenced by the polls, which is a problem given how much noise they contain. The infamous tracker poll lost the Tories at least five votes in W Dorset that I know of, with people saying there was no point voting as Labour were ‘miles ahead’.
Re 9. No all the polls apart from NOP overstated Labour. NOP got Labour spot on.
Re 11. It was MORI not ICM which had the 9pt Tory lead in December. ICM had the Tories 1pt ahead.
10. The Wikipedia entry on Ignatieff is worth quoting at length. It may be an insight into ‘tough liberalism’:
‘In recent years, Ignatieff has generated controversy by supporting the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and the proposed Canada-U.S. North American Missile Defence Shield. Particularly controversial was an article about torture that Ignatieff published in The New York Times Magazine on May 2, 2004. Ignatieff argued for “an outight ban on torture” but advocated “a lesser evil approach” in which legislation might permit coercive interogation including “forms of sleep deprivation that do not result in lasting harm to mental or physical health, together with disinformation and disorientation (like keeping prisoners in hoods) that would produce stress.” Conor Gearty, professor of human rights law at the London School of Economics accused Ignatieff and other liberal intellectuals of giving Donald Rumsfeld “the intellectual tools with which to justify his government’s expansionism” and creating an atmosphere in which torture ordered by the US government might be condoned.’
[15] Thanks, Islingtonian - I stand by my gloss
- George Orwell had some relevant things to say on the Idnatieffs of this world, methinks…
Ignatieffs, even…
OT Canada elections:
Cobservatives 124
Liberals 103
BQ 51
NDP 29
Ind 1
So no overall majority for the tories. The Liberals didn’t collapse in the end (like some polls predicted at one point). Good result for NDP and disappointing IMO for BQ.
Some results: former tory leadership contender and then defector Belinda Stronach won her riding for the liberals.
House leader Tony Valeri lost his seat to NPD candidate in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Reg Alcock (head of the Treasury Board) lost to the tories in Winnipeg South. Heritage Minister Liza Frulla fell to the Bloc in Jeanne-Le Ber and Jacques Saada, the minister for Quebec economic development, lost to BQ in Brossard-La Prairie.
Tony Ianno, the Liberal minister of state for families and caregivers lost to NDP’s Olivia Chow in Trinity-Spadina and Aileen Carrol (minister of international cooperation) lost to the tories.
Liberal Marc Garneau, Canada’s first astronaut in space, lost in the Quebec riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges to the Bloc’s Meili Faille
18 Andrea. The Canadian Tories will be disappointed by these results and the Liberals much relieved. Tribal loyalties won out in the end despite the Liberals deserving a good spanking. Good results for the NDP, but the BQ seem to flatter to deceive again.
My Novia Scotia Jacobite Party triumphed in the Alternative Canadian Election winning 279 seats, just short of my prediction. The Celon Dion Noise Abatement Party also polled well coming in with a healthy 5 seats. A great night all round !!
On the ICM poll it’s musical chairs between the two of the SDP parties. And the third will be relieved that their poll rating hasn’t fallen through the floor. It really does seem like in sexual matters that there’s no such thing as bad publicity for a political party and perhaps the Lib Dems are acquiring more tribal loyalty.
After another highly probable boozy brunch later this morning I’ll hope to post later all the political goss that’s fit to print !
Excuse me if I may change the subject to association football.
Does anyone know why there isn’t a Next England Manager market on Betfair? Or is there and am I just being myopic?
20. Request one Julian. I have and many others so should be there later on today. Who do you fancy for it?
21. Hiddink
21 woody. At £5 million a year, I’m prepared to take a pay cut ….. but then perhaps the FA aren’t happy with another foreign manager.
22,23 Perhaps Mark Oaten might go for it. He likes football and will soon be looking for a new job. He might get too excitable when the fans shout You’re …. and you know you are.
20 - who’s your money on? I like Allardyce but am not sure I see him quite as a national team manager. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they go for another foreign coach, so Jack may be wise to send in his CV on a speculative basis.
Someone this morning suggested Capello (Current Juve manager) - would be interesting at least…
I see that Hughes has asked sorry to Tatchell for the Bermondsey by-election campaign.
http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/content/news_syndication/article_060124hughes.shtml
25 James. If the FA are intent on an English manager I might put a couple of quid on Paul Jewel of Wigan …. might be a decent price.
Anyway see you all later ……….
have they opened a book?
My instinct says that they won’t go for another foreigner.
In the face of all the publicity- the Lib Dems hold up- OK, maybe it will fall, but at the moment it is hard to resist the idea that for the Lib Dems “all publicity is good publicity”
Suspect that David R is right, in which case I’d bet on Curbishley. - Percieved by the FA as ‘a safe pair of hands’ and a popular choice by the media…
I think it would have been Big Sam if they had never made Mike Basset: England Manager. Curbishley seems to be good bet due to the aforementioned having been made.
Of course they could just confirm my wordt fears about there incompetance and promote Steve McLaren…
How many of the English squad play under English managers? Not many, for sure, so there is unlikely to be pressure from that quarter for an English manager. The FA will have to weigh up the balance between public relations and results. If the former, they will go for an Englishman. If the latter, they will inevitably go for the man who has the best track record in working with players of international class. At present no Englishman fits that bill other than Sir Bobby Robson and he is unavailable and too much in the Sir Ming Campbell mould.
34 - If they gave it to Bobby i’d be very happy. They won’t though.
Of course they could help my team and take that incompetant oaf Souness off our hands… Or is that cutting of my nose to spite my face…
Forgive my ignorance but what are the chances of this new canadian parliament going full term? If they hit mid term trouble won’t all the left of centre opposition gang up and chuck them out?
As for the lib dems… well i think in the circumstances that 19% is quite good. it will be interesting to see the first full post oaten poll but if you are only loosing 2 points (within the marin of error) after the worst month of publicity since the merger then i think some cocky tories on here are going to have to learn to live with at least two and half party politics. we shall see.
31 - Does that make Curbishly the Menzies Campbell choice as a safe pair of hands? Is Allardyce the Simon Hughes - seasoned pro but doubts about his credentials to take on the top job? And is Stuart Pearce the Chris Huhne of the contest - a bit of a risk and inexperienced, but might be quite good?
This poll does look a little optimistic for the LibDems, but then only 1/3 of the respondents were questioned after the Oaten Affair broke. It would be interesting to know if the % were markedly different for the pre & post samples.
All in all though I don’t think we LibDems should be panicking. This has been a pretty rough few weeks and the party has been taking a battering in the media, none-the-less we are not in ‘freefall’ whatever wishful thinking the Daily Telegraph may engage in. Our ratings are substantially down from the General Election (5-6%), however that leaves us in the mid to high teens 16-18%, not great but comparable to our recent electoral history. ( 7 months after the 2001 election we were polling 16-18%, and 7 months after the 97 election we ranged from 11-18%).
The leadership election is though likely to draw a line under much of our recent turmoil. In reality in 6 months very few people other than we anoraks will remember Charles Kennedy’s fall let alone Mark Oaten’s resignation, just as 6 months after Michael Howard became leader most people struggled to remember who IDS was.
That said that still leaves the LibDems with a more fundamental problem, how do we respond to the changing political landscape, with Cameron trying to muscle in on our territory and Brown likely to try to reconnect with the lost Labour voters of 2005. Again, I am not panicked - although my preferred candidate is gone, I’m confident that a new Leader will allow the party to reposition itself, particularly as one of the strong themes emerging from the election is the consensus around shifting away from high personal taxes onto environmental levies. There’s still a very hard slog for the party, and as a local councillor defending a marginal seat this May I’m under no illusion as to how tough that will be, but as I said before there is no need to panic.
37 - tiny, I would have thought. But I imagine that the Liberals won’t bring them down until the feel the time is right. So they will surely allow the Conservatives eighteen months in office.
I thought Michael Howard made a bit of **** of himself on the Today programme this morning - although this result does indicate that the conservatives current level of support might be enough for them to form a minority government - if we had a four party system.
Re 18 & 19 yes clear win over the Lib for the Tories - as expected but not by as much as some thought likely. But I note that Canada has not turned conservative (small c). Liberal, NDP and Green still over half the vote.
As far as this ICM Guardian poll is concerned… if you compare it to the ICM Guardian poll at the same stage of the last cycle (Jan 2002), you get a very different picture - Labour 45%, Tories 30% and LDs on 19%.
Just for fun, if you take this shift (Lab down 7, Tories up 8 and LDs unchanged) and put it into electoral calculus, you get a Tory majority of 44, with the LDs unchanged on 62. N.B. Chris Huhne would lose his seat.
Down 1%?
Well this certainly backs up the Telegraph story- we really are in ‘freefall’.
7. and other postings passim.
Roger, how comforting it must be to know that all the developed world is proving itself left-of-centre, and that even nominal right-wing governments only get into power by cloning their left-wing equivalents. No doubt the Canadian elections are in-line with this global process of drift in the Anglo-phone world, along with the US, Australia, New Zealand and of course dear old Blighty - not to mention Japan, Germany and potentially France.
You are a card.
42 - But that’s a bizarre comparison to make in the way that you make it. The January 2002 poll was taken in the aftermath of a very popular war in Afghanistan and well before Iraq. It is fair to say that the Tories have made a good start to this Parliament and have progressed above the 33% ceiling - don’t get me wrong, if I were a Tory I would be a lot happier than I would have been in January 2002.
But it is entirely without any logical basis to argue that the change in voting intentions between 2006 and 2009 is likely to mirror that between 2002 and 2005, or even to take that outcome as some sort of mid-point on a distribution of possible outcomes. It is playing silly games with statistics without actually understanding what they are showing.
39. Completely. There seems to be no sense at all of Lib Dem panic on forums, blogs etc. (to which as an now-expat LD I’m confined). All very much let’s-get-on-with-it. As Bullseye said, the leadership campaign should draw a line under everything.
Although I’m a Minger I can imagine any of the three candidates facing off against Cameron pretty successfully.
Really interesting Baskerville. If you compare Mori’s last two polls you see the Labour vote increasing at 4.5 points a week which extrapolated over a year would mean the Conservative party wouldn’t exist….and John Major would have lost his seat!
Hmmm the Canadian and German elections show a worrying pattern for the right as indeed, recent elections in South America have also done. In particular for the British scene comparisons with the German and Canadian systems are relevant as like British politics they don’t operate on an effective two party system (which the US and Australia in practice does). What seems to be appearing is that the electorate in these countries is lacking the guts to make a necessary change. How Schroeder survived so well in Germany is particularly astonishing, though Merkel’s campaign left a lot to be desired.
This should be worrying for those who really want a majority Tory government in Britain, where two left of centre parties hammered by corruption in Canada, and a self induced economic recession in Germany are able to hang onto enough support to prevent the right from carrying out necesary if painful (for some pleasurable) economic reforms.
However the results also seem to me, to back up Cameron’s tactics, which is first to try and destroy the liberals, not just to get some support back, but to ensure that if labour fails, its dwindling support doesn’t start splitting and goes straight to the Tories. This along, with government failings/divisions (which are already happening) is essential if we are to get close to majority government.
BTW as for Canada, if I were a conservative I would be counselling them to try and force a tripartite coalition between the Liberals, NDP and Bloc, in the knowledge that it would fail in a year or two, and give the conservatives the benefit of disappointed voters for all three parties.
Andrew M, the result shows that across every Western country, there is a large section of the electorate that will forgive a left-wing party anything they do “because their heart is in the right place”. Such people would regard a mass-murdering communist as being less of a criminal than, say, a self-made multi-millionaire.
People know that the reform is needed, in almost every Western country, yet can’t bring themselves to accept that fact at an emotional level.
47 - And John Major hasn’t even got a seat now, so that’s quite an achievement.
48. I agree about trying to get the three-way co-alition in Canada.
On Britain, however, I see the main difference with Germany and Canada as being positive - namely that in fact neither Merkel nor Harper were “good campaigners”, whereas Cameron has the potential to be. So in effect what we could see is a reduction of the last minute reverse swing in both these elections. Additionally, the fully Anglophone world (of which I must lament Canada is not quite one) are always more receptive to “reform” than elsewhere - witness nominally left-wing candidates winning precisely on such platforms in recent years (Clinton, Blair).
I think Japan would prove an interesting case study of how to play the reform card, as outside of the Anglophone world they are probably the most similar. Additionally I think that France, Spain and Italy all have the potential to shy away from reform in the coming years, and out of them only Spain can get away with it economically.
42.45.47. Roger and James. The clue may have been in the little words: “Just a bit of fun”. But then your posts don’t imply much of a sense of humour. Ho hum. Tra la la.
52 - may be it’s just more fun for you than us!
49 “People know that the reform is needed, in almost every Western country, yet can’t bring themselves to accept that fact at an emotional level. ”
The left build up a vast army dependent on the state for their salaries. They may consider it emotional but the level they cannot bring themselves to accept it on is financial.
51 - That’s a good point Anatole. The CPC were able to achieve this result in spite of having a fairly unpopular leader (although he was able to improve his image across the course of the campaign). I’m sure the CPC would have loved a majority but they’ve done pretty well compared to where they were at the start and look like they’ve at least started rebuilding the grand (if uneasey) Mulroney co-alition of Western populists, Quebec nationalists and Ontario and Atlantic Red Tories.
The other interesting thing to note in BC about the Canadian Election is the fact that the Tories lost 5 seats, despite increasing their vote there. It seems that tactical voting is as much a problem in Canada for the Tories as it is in Britain for us Conservatives. I hope those electors in those seats, feel proud of themselves today!
Or as the African saying goes “what does it matter how big the cow is, so long as you’ve got your mouth on its teat?”
I think it is sad what had happened in Canada, and it seems that the public were more than willing to vote Liberal, but just couldn’t any more because of scandal. I don’t think many switched because of policy- as shown by the fact that the Liberals were leading until yet another scandal halfway ruined all their credibility.
The Martin years have actually been successful in Canada. Economic data released on the day of the election showed continued growth- and new environmenal laws and social reform have passed, often with Conservative opposition. It seems that Quebec lost Canada for the grits, due to the scandal there.
Right lets get a few facts in on all this speculation and ridiculous nonsense (Paul Lloyd)!
1. The figures are Cons 37%, Lab 36% (no change from last poll), Lib Dems 19% (down 2%). See http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libdems/story/0,9061,1693522,00.html
2. A 1% lead is a lead! As I have said many times before rather than take one poll, we should consider several over a cycle and look at the trend. I am quite happy with a 1% lead over Labour but would be even more happy with a 10% lead! Cameron’s approach will take a little time to shift opinion but it is working. To talk about his “honeymoon being over” is just plain ridiculous.
3. The Lib Dems can take some comfort from still being on 19% but to suggest that they wont fall further is speculative.
4. There is often a bit of a time lag in the effect of events on the polls. I would not start judging the impact of the Oaten resignation until polls taken at the end of Jan.
As to polling during the General Election, it was all over the place. I would suggest that ONLY YouGov has a record of which they can be proud. Most other pollsters were miles out until their final poll, when they applied lots of voodoo and managed some consistent and close results. It indicates that generally speaking polls are of limited value as predictors of results, with the one exception of YouGov!
ICM had a pretty good record during the election, Rik. MORI were all over the place, even if their final poll was okay.
Max, do you think the votes the Conservatives won in Quebec were from nationalists, or from people opposed to nationalism?
59 A one per cent lead is often described as a “statistical dead heat”. A honeymoon is meant to be more pleasant than this.
I agree on the timelag re the Oaten resignation though.
The immediate impact seems to be that Labour are rushing to get bad news out.
Lembit Opik on the Daily Politics at the moment is providing entertaining viewing.
My posts seem to be being censored by the spam trap again. I’ll try this very short one to see if it gets through.
51.”Additionally I think that France, Spain and Italy all have the potential to shy away from reform in the coming years”
Re Italy
In what sense?
In terms of voters being afraid of votes some parties because they’re afraid of potential reforms? Or in the sense that parties (or better some of them) will run away from reforms just to disappoint some sections of the electorate?
Should the Jan YouGov poll not have been out by now ??
I tend to think people read too much into the tea leaves of overseas elections. Just because sometimes there are more centre left governments in “similar” countries and sometimes there are more centre right ones is seen as signifying important shifts in global priorities and so on. But I am very far from convinced that the patterns which people see as so significant would be any different if countries chose their governments by the toss of a coin, heads being centre left, tails centre right. Mitterand somehow managed to survive co-existing with Kohl, Thatcher and Reagan. Clinton somehow managed to win in 1992 despite John Major. I suspect there are around as many examples of this as there are of countries moving in parallel - with the exception of countries which have a completely exceptional degree of interdependence (e.g. I can see why a country may go for a hawkish government if their traditional enemy next door had just gone for a hawk).
61 - Peter - we have risen about 5% in the last couple of months and have moved from 5-10% behind to a consistent small lead.
I would agree that a 1% lead in a single poll is a statistical dead heat but an average 1% lead across several polls is a 1% lead.
Yes, it did…strange. The one that got eaten this morning congratulated Lurker on his hilarious post last night, and said that I felt the polls overall continue to show not very much happening: the two main parties are level pegging (Rik can’t seriously be excited about a 1% lead), the LibDems doing OK in the circs. The public is not much engaged and there are no major issues exciting them - my postbag is very slim at the moment except when I specifically ask for feedback (as on smoking).
60 - Judging by the results in the seats the Tories won it looks like a mixture of both. In seat like Janquine-Alma the Tory vote went up from around 2,500 to 27,000 and the vote of the Bloc and the Liberals fell (although the Liberal candidate actually encouraged voting for the Tory) and in Beauce the Tory vote went up from 8,000 to 36,000 again with votes taken from both parties. 9 of the 10 seats were won from the Bloc but in many the Liberal vote completely collapsed.
59. Rik I think the key point is not that the so-called “Cameron effect” is taking time to shift the polls, it’s because in his strategy, whether you agree with it or not, the emphasis on polls is not yet a priority.
The way I see it, Cameron is gambling that he will have a couple of year’s leeway in the job, before it becomes imperative that we maintain at least at least 40% to have any credibility (and realistically more). However swings in the polls come not primarily from personality (though it can have the slight bounce that we have already seen), but from political direction - if and when it eventually comes. Cameron at this stage is busy trying to scrap every remnant of residual policy that the party has, because he believes that the public need to conceptualise of us as being a completely clean slate. Policies will then come from that blank page, and appear as “new” even if they are in fact “old” - this is why he is so keen to detach himself even from policies that are percieved as “successes” in public opinion, such as grammar schools. I don’t think that anyone disputes that the basics of school autonomy in finance and admission will come back into Conservative policy when it is eventually announced, but he won’t go back to a historical moniker - he thinks it is unhelpful in the same way that talking about the term “One Nation Conservatism” is in fact an anachronistic irrelevance, however comfortable it may feel with some elements of the party.
The point being, he is gambling (rightly or wrongly) that the polls will come with the policies, in a few years time. I hope he doesn’t think that it will come simply on the back of image change - and I don’t believe he does. Usually upswings and bounces that attend new leaders arrive precisely because their arrival heralds immediate new policy directions (Major - Poll Tax, Blair - Clause 4, Hague/IDS - entrenched euroscepticism, Brown - public service funding, etc). Cameron is trying to do things slightly differently, probably with a greater short term risk, possibly with greater long-term reward.
I think they should choose a foriegn manager rather than a domestic manager of a mediocre Premiership club (which McLaren and Curbishley are). Scolari has the track record and seems willing so should be offered the job. Despite the fact that he severely overrated Beckham Sven didn’t do too bad a job (when he was hired we weren’t expected to qualify for the 2002 world cup much less get to the QF’s) and much of the disapointment is really a backlash from the Sven-ger-land mania of his early days than due to anything substantive.
It is interesting that (thankfully) even the polls which gave the Tories leads are now narrowing. I believe that the Cameron honeymoon is drawing to a close and we’ll see a small but significant Labour lead. Whether this will prompt a change in course with Cameron, a conservative civil war or simply a widening Labour lead in the polls I don’t know. I do know that buying Labour seats on the market in anticipation of a fourth term seems very attractive at the moment.
Rik - you could of course equally say:
The Tories can take some comfort from being 1% ahead but to suggest that they will extend this lead is purely speculative…
I share some of your concern about pre-election polling, but don’t believe Yougov is necessarily the best predictor. The problem surely is the question which usually takes the form of ‘…if the general election was tomorrow how would you vote..?’. The reason why eve of poll polls may be more accurate is because it’s the only time that the question is true.
The other doubt I have about Yougov is the fact that their polls don’t shift very much. 15% of people decide how to vote as late as polling day itself - which should suggest that there are big movements during campaigns.
It’s horses for courses and of course politicians are always going to choose the pollster that usually most favours their own side.
Dan “15% of people decide how to vote as late as polling day itself”
indeed this is true but of course these may or may not ’split’ the same way roughly as those who have already made up their minds.
I think that it is not the truth in by-elections and a few seats at General Elections, but if it were not largely truwe at general Elections then opinion polls would always be so useless hast no one would bother with them.
The other thing of course is that some of those people who actually make their mind up in the polling station (or on the walk to it) may well have declared a more certain intention to any pollsters who called on them.
I think we’ll be roughly level-pegging with Labour between now and May, we’ll get a boost from the local elections, before reverting to level-pegging in the Autumn.
Anatole, (70) “he believes that the public need to conceptualise of us as being a completely clean slate.”
My dictionary has that translated as ‘unprincipled shysters’ is that correct?
I don’t know what some people expect but I think breaking out of the 30-33% box and taking a lead in the polls is pretty good going for a leader 2 months into the job with no real policies.
76. Like Blair you mean? Well I suppose so …
(For once) I agree with Sean Fear, certainly about his predictions to the summer: what happens in the autumn and beyond will depend as much on the state of the government/economy than whatever Cameron does - my hunch is that the Tory lead will persist.
Anatole, the magic of Blair was to govern for nine years with no real policies - and get away with it!
THAT is the real failure of both Tories and Lib Dems in this period.
80. Has Britain been a failure for those years though?
Marvellous headline on BBC online.
“MPs told Prescott ate pie…..”
You don’t say….
81. well, on Saturday they’ve the following headline: “Mark Oaten stood down over over rent boy”
37: The average life expectancy of a Canadian minority government is 18 months. Given that the Harper government has the lowest share of seats of any of them (since 1957) and little potential genuine support from the smaller parties, I wonder if it will make the average.
Funny how everyone who was critical of PR in Germany because of one indecisive result (now resolved)… how about two in a row in Canada under FPTP?
The immediate change of government (for some reason it seems part of the conventions of Canadian politics that the plurality party forms a government) should rule out a forced three-party coalition. The Conservatives are presumably going to spend the next year going softly and trying to persuade people they aren’t scary, and the Liberals will presumably get a new leader and a new image (generational replacement doesn’t seem a problem).
68 - Nick - trust me I am not getting excited about a 1% lead! Merely repudiating the rubbish that spews from Paul Lloyd’s keyboard.
70 - I would agree with that!
81: An infelicitous para from yesterday’s Times:
Mr Opik, 40, is not renowned for his luck. He is a keen astronomer and has often warned about the dangers of an asteroid colliding with Earth and wiping out the human race. He is engaged to Sian Lloyd, the ITV weather presenter, and the couple’s wedding is due to take place this year.
It seems to be suggesting that being engaged to Sian Lloyd is part of a run of bad luck, which seems very unkind of the Times. Until Charlotte Church and the rugby bloke, Sian and Lembit were Wales’s glamour couple…
81 - This was in response to an unspecified Norman Baker question. I suspect it may have been “Question to the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister: Who ate all the pies?”
RE 48 I think that would be very bad advice for the Canadian Tories…and the Liberals would be daft to go for that. The perception will surely be that the Tories have ‘won’ so have got to make the best of it.
81/86 - It is connection with the approval of the new Brighton FC Stadium at Falmer which as usual has support from the majority of the population except in the immediate neighbourhood of the new building .
Next England manager market is now up on betfair as is the by election in Scotland. Labour are very strong odds on favourites for that.
A story in the Guardian last week quoted Zac Goldsmith as saying that we might be surprised at how soon the Gummer/Goldsmith environmental commission starts to make pronouncements. And it would seem to be entirely in keeping with what we’ve seen of Cameron so far if these commissions were to be used as six separate engines of policy debate, providing material for a steady supply of headlines. The point is, I don’t think DC is expecting to wait a full 18 months before starting to give some indication as to his thinking.
On the other hand, I understand that the structure of the Gummer commission’s review has yet to be finalised.
On the subject of the England manager - it’s entirely against the spirit of things to have a non-national in the most important role in the team. Almost cheating.
Harry Redknapp might be the man for the job - it seems Sven was dropping his name to the fake sheik the other week….
Not really - most international teams have a non national managing them. I also believe that you cannot go from managing a small club in the bottom half of the table to managing one of the strongest international sides in the world.
Forgive me for going off-topic and asking for advice again. Owing to a back problem and treatment to my hand, I am finding it difficult to work at the keyboard. A few years ago, we tried Via Voice dictation, but we were not impressed, as it did not seem able to handle my by no means broad Scottish accent and my wife’s slight Swedish accent. Has anyone any experience of Dragon Dictate or some other dictation software, and would they recommend it?
91 - Tempted to disagree about ‘arry… His best talent is at buying good players on the cheap, a skill entirely wasted as coach of the national team.
92. Why not? They manage international players. Ireland seem to think you can go from coach of a league 1 club to manager. Marco Van Basten hasn’t got that much experience either but Holland seem happy with him. I don’t know why we always have to do down our own managers in this country.
Moving from club to national management is a pretty big move in any event. In some ways it is better not to have the former manager of a top side - those who have been at clubs with tighter finances probably have more experience of working with what is available and adapting their tactics/formations rather than buying somebody in if the players don’t conform with your preconceived favourite approaches.
96 - I would add that this points to my favoured choice, Exeter’s Alex Inglethorpe - we may be prepared to gift him to the nation for a sensible fee.
89. This news may be unhelpful to Labour in Dunfermline and West Fife: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4642700.stm
Looking back at previous results for this seat, it is by no means rock solid for Labour and on a couple of occasions the Conservatives have been in contention.
The Dunfermline seat which existed betwen 1974 and 1979 had very similar boundaries to the current Dunfermline and West Fife. In February 1974 the result was: Lab 39.3%, Con 30.3%, SNP 17.8%, Lib 12.6%. Lab majority 9.0%.
In 1983 the boundary changes had removed around 15,000 voters mostly in Rosyth, to little partisan effect. Most of the area lost was restored in the 2005 changes.
The 1983 result for Dunfermline West was Lab 36.0% Con 29.2%, SDP/All 26.2%, SNP 7.8%, Ecology 0.9%. Lab majority 6.9%.
If the Cameron revival is all it’s cracked up to be, shouldn’t the Scottish Tories be aiming for at least a strong second place here, and putting one over on Gordon Brown and Ming Campbell in their own back yard?
56 - if it helped to stop the candadian tories getting a working majority - they should quite rightly be proud of themselves
In terms of tactical voting Canada looks very interesting, I noticed in a lot of seats the NDP were second to the Conservatives, and if they had been able to squeeze the liberal votes in those seats they could have substantially increased their prescence. In many ways there are parallels with the UK, it seems the majority of voters will always vote for parties to the left of centre (Liberals, NDP, BQ), but depending on tactical voting and where the votes stack up the tories have the ability to win elections outright.
96 & 95 - Andy Roxbourgh and Craig Brown were both successful in Scottish terms and neither had much club experience.
Good afternoon children ! Well another dull lunchtime with the Street of Shames finest.
…… and frankly the news that’s fit to print is somewhat dull, especially so after the hiatus of the past few days. Anyway here it is …. try not to fall asleep in the back row !! :
To say that Oaten has gone to ground is like saying that Mr Mole likes to burrow. Can’t blame him and here’s hoping that the pack loses the scent. Titter ye not.
The Lib Dem beauty contest will shortly move to the swim suit section, when all the wares will be on show ! Horrible thought
Both the Hughes and Nuhne camps know the game is up but the energetic Huhnestics are pushing hard to come a decent third and thus ensure a good job in the Ming junta. Hughes by contrast is in no mans land, neither close enough to Ming to make a telling blow but ahead enough of Huhne to be out of trouble. And we’ve several more weeks of this ……. can’t we move to the evening dress section !!!!!!!!!
Frankly the Tory news is so scurrilous, libellous and hilarious in equal measure that I thought we’d get thrown out of Burger King.
for all the noise we were making … oh and the hoodies we had up !!
Which dear kiddy winks leaves us with the government ….. remember them … they actually run the show …. well there’s not much new on the goss front save that there appears to be a genuine love in between TB and GB as they both reconcile themselves to a long term smooth handover that they both see as very much mutually beneficial ….. ergo GB latest on the Education Bill.
………………………………………
You’ll all be glad to hear that this summary didn’t cost me the tab today ……. those burgers and shakes are so expensive !!!!!!!
85 - for how long has Opik been engaged? I can’t remember when he wasn’t.
102 AT. Subject to the wind and rain and asteroid hits Limpdick and weather girl are having their warm front nuptuals this Summer, that in England lasts from July 30th - 2nd August ……. mind you Scotland’s summer is a day shorter.
Final verified results in the Canadian election show the Conservatives 31 seats short of an absolute majority :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4641954.stm
Richard Willis “68 - Nick - trust me I am not getting excited about a 1% lead! Merely repudiating the rubbish that spews from Paul Lloyd’s keyboard.”
- now, now. Calm yourself. Has sarcasm never crossed your path? My point was that the Tories got all excited when one poll showed the LDs at 15% (meltdown blah de blah de blah.) - I was merely pointing out that one poll Con 37% (-2) could equally easily be portrayed in those terms.
Ultimately Anatole may be right - but the Tories have got to be worried. Shiny new leader. Ditching every policy platform that they have ever stood on. All in order to be liked and they have convinced 4% of short term switchers. I’d be a bit disappointed personally. God if I was going to sell my soul I’d want more change from the devil than that.
Its what lempit has been engaged in that may cause some consternation…..must be a good market for a further lib dem scandal…first the dodgy donations, then kennedy, then Oaten then?
I guess there are a few nervous Lib dem MPs out there…
106 cymrumark. Hi Celtic cousin, what news from the “Land of your Fathers”. All seems quiet, but I’m sure there’s plenty bubbling under the surface ??
105 - you arent getting the DC thing are you. There is no soul selling on policy only the appearance of such.
The 2009 manifesto will be basically right wing.
But not as right wing as the 2009 Queens speech if DC wins a decent majority.
205 - These polling figures are still far better than they’ve been for years. But no one is under any allusions that its going to be a long haul. And given how useless all the Libs and Labs on the site seem to think DC is it’s a wonder he’s moved the polls at all - unless of course you’ve got it wrong about him?
108 Jamie. Do you mean we’re all being duped and Sean Fear will be Home Scretary in 2009 !!
108 - Are you saying that the Conservatives will attempt to win the next election by putting forward more moderate policies and promises to the electorate and then should they win reveal their true agenda ???
ahh So it is a smokescreen, Jamie. See this is what I am trying to get a handle on. New Tories - real converts or just trying to hide the indigestible bits of their constantly rejected platform?
Either way they have a problem.
Scenario 1 (which Rik et al are trying to argue) means that eventually Cameron will have to explain to his large right-wing membership and MPs why they have to become social democrats.
Scenario 2, 4 years for the electorate to find out the truth.
How can this tension be sustained for 4 years without giving one way or the other?
208: Jamie, so if Labour ran a ‘hidden agenda’ negative campaign against the Conservatives in 2009, saying exactly what you were saying, you wouldn’t complain?
boris johnson talks sense shocker.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4642806.stm
I see the momentum behind Ming is growing exponentially on the betting. IG Index has him far ahead of Huhne and Hughes who are both level pegging!
101 Even those of us who have been underwhelmed by the Huhne campaign take it for granted that he will have - and deserve - a top job in the lib dem shadow cabinet. (OK. I can’t speak for Jon). Home Affairs is (semi)vacant. He might also take David Laws job if he is to move to shadowing Bronw and Cable taking charge of policy coordiantion.
109 Max. Are you partaking of the “Great Chieftain o’ the pudding-race” tomorrow night ??
208 Jamie. Cat and pigeons there dear chap.
114. Not taken him long to go native.
109 - Hi Max , the thing is that the Canada and earlier German elections have shown conservative parties well in the lead in opinion polls weeks and even days before polling never mind with a small lead years before but at the last minute many voters recoil from giving them majority power even as we saw in Canada voting for a pretty corrupt but economically competent government
109 - I wouldn’t say “all”, Max. There are several of us on here who have specifically recognised that Cameron is a substantially more credible figure than any recent Tory leader. And yet the game is still very much on and I am not about to throw myself under the wheels of a bus.
The polling evidence suggests a boost for the Tories - not an election clinching one but well worth having - and a willingness to listen which must be encouraging for you. But it is early days and some moves - such as ruling out real reform of the NHS, abandoning commitments on tuition fees and abandoning tax cuts - open up real opportunities as well as threats for other parties. I am not saying those moves by DC are mistakes, but whenever you reposition you create opportunities for others. As a Lib Dem, I genuinely worry about my party’s ability to grasp those opportunities, but appreciate that they are there. Astute Labour supporters will I suspect see the same thing.
It wont be a hidden agenda - it will be an agenda with nice fluffy names for concepts that were previously rejected not because the Uk public didn’t agree with them but that were badly packaged, presented by non cuddly leaders and hammered by the press.
Lembit’s plans were thrown somewhat in any case by the untimely death of his brother.
114. Yuh, who’d have thought a Tory would oppose governmental intervention?
Paul Lloyd, you have misunderstood me (again). My whole point is that this first part of the process - ditching all historical ties to policies and labels - will not be the poll-swinging part and is not designed to be. Such poll profit he has managed is purely to do with new image and may well be transcient - anything achieved now is purely a “Cameron bonus” as far as I am concerned, and the empirical evidence of support for the Cameron regime from Tories shows that this is a commonly held view. The policy-ditching phase is designed purely to prepare the ground for actual poll-swinging policies in about 18 months time, These policies are unlikely to be anything other than “right wing”, insofar as “right wing” refers to things like commitment to a low taxation economy, copetitiveness of business, reform of the public services involving the private sector, Euroscepticism, etc, etc. However they will not be linked to, or use the terminology of, historical policies which have no real relevance.
Take grammar schools, for instance. Tories will always support financial and admissions autonomy, probably including selection by ability. However there is no point in talking about “grammar schools” which, while comforting to some, refers to a by-gone era - obviously, because no future government, Tory or Labour, would actually re-introduce “grammar schools” or anything akin to the tripartite system of the 1950s. So Cameron deems it unhelpful for these phrases to be bandied around, particularly as they have the danger of connecting with voters’ minds with things in “the past”, whether good or bad. The reason why most Tories on this site are neutral leaning towards happy, is because we are still awaiting the meat on the bone. Of course there is a danger that there may be nothing there - if that is the case then I would be unhappy. But the tactics currently being used to “wipe the slate clean” is one I think is helpful and with which I sympathise.
This may be of interest for those following events in Canada. I wonder if the same urban/rural split has occurred in other recent elections (Germany, New Zealand, Norway)
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/24/urban-rural-060124.html
There was quite a division in Britain in 2005, I seem to recall, with the Conservatives doing disproportionately better in rural and suburban seats.
121. Hague was far more cuddly than DC is!
114, funnily enough “Golf Course Management” is actually a very tough degree. I don’t agree that more graduates is in itself a good thing though.
120 - Very true James, sorry shouldn’t tar everyone with the same brush!
109 - Of course Jack - I’m a big fan of haggis it’s lovely stuff. Sadly, as my girlfriend insists on cooking and not going to the chippy, it wont be served battered and deep fried but you can’t have it all. I’ve a very nice 18 year old Highland Park to go with it!
anatole, themain problem is though that it gives credence to a lot of labours social agenda. Many tories may think that civil partnership etc are a good thing, but for many they do not. For these people they are going to be disapointed by a tory government in some respects. If david cameron is leader he will be socially liberal and economicaly rightwing.
Jack W, @104, look at the result for Beauce, Quebec. A Conservative gain from the Liberal on a 43.5% swing. It makes Enfield Southgate in 1997 look positively prosaic.
Stodge @ 125, I wouldn’t say that. It was more of a North/South divide (the Tories did much better in urban areas in the South than they did in the North and Midlands) than an urban/rural divide.
125 - I’m not sure the urban/rural split is that great in Canada Quite a few Tory seats (in Canada) are urban - every single seat in Calgary,Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina and others in Winipeg, Ottawa and Quebec City. Admitedly they have struggled in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.
128 Max. Good fellow. I’ve 15 round chez Jack !! plus piper etc !! ……. I fear my malts will take a wee hit and Thursday will not occur due to lack of interest.
125 - of course the trend exists somewhat here, but I don’t think it would ever be as significant as in Canada because there are so few truly rural seats here. Most have a reasonable amount of urbanisation.
I think we discussed this a few weeks ago with Robert Waller, and there are very few seats with more than 5% of the population working in agriculture.
Will Mark Oaten be able to stay a MP when is local newspaper is calling on him to resign. ? Are local papers more powerful than national ones?
130. Yes but it really will be completely irrelevant, won’t it? Yes, a Cameron administration would never garner the support to further liberalize anything socially, but they certainly aren’t going to be seen trying to retro-actively make things *more conservative*, are they? As I have said before, as far as social liberalism goes, its not a question of the Tories being “liberal”, but being “liberal enough”, i.e. to make other things key priorities. God knows there will be enough requirement for looking at the economy, the tax system, etc, without wasting time on gay marriage or abortion. This is why things like abortion are not, to all intents and purposes, on the political agenda from any party at all at the moment.
I have always considered it a party which has run out of steam and out of ideas, which starts to engage in social legislation (witness Thatcher, Blair, Bush, ad nauseam).
ha i now know what it must be like being a tory reading the mail!!!
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/tm_objectid=16620129&method=full&siteid=94762&headline=thatcher-the-musical-name_page.html
130 Sean. Excellent !! Would have loved to see the Conservative bar charts there …… probably the finest in history ….. that’ll irk the Lib Dems …. unless they know better.
The Conservative vote went from 17% to 67%, Jack.
136 Anatole. But that’s just a case for never touching social reform of any sort ……… there’ll always be some economic, education or crime difficulty that could take priority …… which is why I suppose women still haven’t got the vote.
137. Very balanced I thought!!!
137. And actually, I’m a Tory and reading the Mail still scares me…..
136. Bush doesnt engage in social legislation because he is running out of steam (although i would agree he is). He does so because issues like abortion, the right to life etc. matter to many “middle” Americans because of their religious dimension.
These issues matter less to many people in the UK, primarily as we are less religious.
238&239 - The Tory vote went up by almost 14 times in Jonquiere-Alma. Now that would make for some good bar charts!
139 Sean. Fancy the Conservative candidate failing to break 70% ….. probably a touch too liberal !!
Didn’t the Liberals tacitly endorse some Conservative candiates in rural Quebec or did I dream that after a long lunch !!!
114, 118 Unbelievable.
Let’s join Labour and encourage as many kids as possible to go to University, rack up untold debt, qualify with a worthless degree and enter the job market in a mediocre job, mediocre salary, mediocre prospects and a bloody great debt at a time of their life when they need to be accumulating wealth to purchase a house.
Great thinking Boris !
136. and 143. We also have a tradition of social issues being on free votes. Cameron’s liberal approach on social issues could just be that there’s no party line…
144. Yes but he wasn’t messing around with the social agenda whilst Afghanistan and Iraq were happening, did he!
139 etc:
That is a remarkable constituency result; I suspect the nearest parallel may be Wyre Forest rather than Southgate - was there a particular issue or personali