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Labour back in the lead even though the Tories make progress

YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has the Lib Dems share dropping by 5 points with almost all of that going to Labour. The result is that while the Tories continue to make progress the major beneficiary of the problems in the Lib Dems has been Tony Blair’s party.

The party shares with changes on last month are CON 39%(+1): LAB 40%(+4): LD 13%(-5). It should be noted that the poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday - so most of the respondents would have sent their internet replies back to the pollster before the Simon Hughes broke.

Compared with the General Election last May the Lib Dems are down 10 points with Labour up four and the Tories up 6.

So while the Tories will feel pleased to be still making progress they will be very disappointed that Labour have put on four points to overtake them.

The Lib Dems might take some consolation in the fact that the internet pollster sometimes magnifies trends. ICM in the Guardian on Tuesday had the party on 19% - so the difference between the two pollsters is enormous.

This poll is bound to have an impact on the Lib Dem leadership battle though at this stage it is hard to work out how party members will respond. My guess is that it will reinforce the move against Simon Hughes and boost support for a “safe” candidate. Whether that is Huhne or Campbell we will have to wait and see.

In the Lib Dem leadership betting the money Hughes has recovered a touch but he is still at 5/1 with Huhne on 2.95/1 and Campbell at 0.68/1.

YOUGOV UPDATE 0745. On the leadership the survey has with all voters: Hughes 18: Campbell 16: Huhne 5. With those saying they would vote Lib Dem the split is: Hughes 23: Campbell 22: Huhne 13.

But at least two-thirds of those answering did so before yesterday’s SUN story about Hughes. These figures contrast with the 62% support from Lib Dems that Hughes enjoyed in Wednesday’s ICM poll.

Only 29% of those polled said they thought that the party was “a credible force in British politics.

Mike Smithson

So what are we to make of the incident-packed Lib Dem leadership race now?

Each day something new seems to be happening and keeping up with the betting has become a nightmare. After switching big funds into Hughes yesterday I became part of the exodus early this morning.

In the aftermath of Mark Oaten I felt that the loser would be Hughes - only to have that view confounded by yesterday’s ICM poll.

Now, as every bulletin focuses on this morning’s revelation, the only thing going for the party president is that the serious media is leading on the Palestine election but with him only a bit behind.

I cannot see Hughes recovering from this. The only question is what will be the impact on the voting with the AV system that the party employs.

The betting has swung to Ming with Huhne back in the second favourite slot. My guess is that Hughes will now come in third place with 20-25% of the first choices. Huhne will get 30-35% with Campbell on 40% plus.

The leadership will be decided by how Hughes’s second preferences split. Huhne will need the majority of them to be for him and he could just do it.

But who knows what will be in the Murdoch press in the coming days?

Mike Smithson

Will fellow Fife-MP, Ming, get a Dunfermline headache?

In what must be one of the quickest by-elections ever to be called the voters of Dunfermline and West Fife will got to the polls on February 9 - just 34 days after the death of their sitting Labour MP Rachel Squire.

Clearly Labour has gone for a snap election with the aim of stopping any band-wagon effect from the Lib Dems or the SNP.

At the General Election there was a comfortable Labour win with the Lib Dems in second place. The votes split LAB 47.4: LD 20.1: SNP 18.9: CON 10.3.

There’s an added interest because the next door constituency is Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, the seat of Gordon Brown - now sharply down to 0.45/1 for the Labour leadership.

It is also near to North East Fife, the constituency of Ming Campbell, currently 0.75/1 favourite for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats.

At Livingston, just across the Firth of Forth, Labour held on last year in the by-election caused by Robin Cook’s death but saw a 10.2% swing to the SNP. The interesting thing about the coming by-election is that the Lib Dems are in second place - albeit a long way behind.

In better times for the Lib Dems you might have fancied a flutter on them overhauling Labour. But this looks like a Labour hold on a low turnout with a much reduced majority over, possibly, the SNP.

For there is little doubt that publicity hammerings, like the one the Lib Dems are currently going through, can undermine the morale of activists - and in a by-election they are crucial. Whether local-man Ming can do something is a moot point. A poor showing for the party on his door-step might just impact on his leadership chances.

In the by-election betting the best prices are Labour 1/5: Lib Dems 5.6/1 and the SNP at 6/1. Cameron’s Conservatives are 50/1 with the bookies but the party does not even get a Betfair listing. If you want to bet on them then take the 210/1 “any other party” option.

Lib Dem leadership. There’s been a sharp move away from Simon Hughes in the betting overnight following a story in today’s Sun about him having gay relationships. The main beneficiary seems to be Chris Huhne.

Mike Smithson

UPDATED 0832

Party President now back as firm second favourite

An unusual online poll in the Guardian this morning should make good reading for the Lib Dem party president, Simon Hughes, in his bid to become leader.

The pollster, which usually carries out phone surveys, used the internet to interview 90 Tory voters, 90 Labour, 90 Lib Dems and 23 who supported other parties to ask about their views of the three leadership challengers. The group split Hughes 51: Campbell 29: Huhne 20 in saying who would be best to restore party fortunes.

Amongst the section of those surveyed who were Lib Dems the split was Hughes 62: Campbell 18: Huhne 20.

The Guardian says that a similar survey was carried out by the pollster during the Tory leadership contest which showed strong support for David Cameron.

This clearly is a big boost for Simon Hughes who has seen his position flagging in recent days following the Mark Oaten resignation.

Some points to note are:-

What punters desperately need is a poll of party members and we have not had one of those since before Charles Kennedy’s resignation.

Clearly the strong contrast in the respondents’ view of Hughes and Campbell could make this survey very influential and as we said on Monday - do not rule Simon out yet. For latest betting click here

My betting: I have now laid most of my Chris Huhne bet and have put some of my profits on Simon Hughes. This race is very difficult to call but I have strong positions on all three candidates.

Mike Smithson

THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CUT - A STATMENT WILL BE PUT ON THE SITE THE SITE DURING THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 28/29

The latest survey from ICM, has the following shares in its monthly survey for the Guardian - CON 37%(-2): LAB 36%(+1) LD 19%(-1). The comparisons are with the ICM News of the World Survey nine days ago.

Surveying took place from Friday to Sunday so only about a third of those interviewed would have been aware of the rent boy allegations against the former leadership candidate, Mark Oaten.

[EDITED]

Meanwhile in the Lib Dem leadership betting the money has been going on Ming Campbell who has now tightened to 0.65/1. Simon Hughes is now just ahead of Chris Huhne.

Mike Smithson

Respect MP at 0.22/1 for the next Big Brother eviction

In what looks like his first electoral test since taking Bethnal Green and Bow from Labour’s Oona King at the General Election George Galloway could be voted out of the Big Brother house on Wednesday.

We do not normally cover “Big Brother” on PB.C and do not claim any expertise on the programme - but the role of Respect’s only MP puts this into the political arena and there’s little doubt that there will be political consequences following his appearance in the programme.

The latest developments in the show make him the odds-on favourite in the betting to be booted out next. Betfair have him at 0.22/1.

Galloway went into the “Big Brother House”, apparently, in the expectation that he could attack the Tony Blair for hours on end and have a large young audience. As it has turned out the producers have managed to blank out much of his political commentary and what has been seen is the MP doing humiliating tasks.

I cannot help but sense that Galloway’s likely eviction is not going to be the end of the story for the MPs. Does he realise yet, for instance, that much of what he has said has been blanked out?

Watch this space.

Mike Smithson