Punters think it’s down to Campbell and Huhne
February 3rd, 2006
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YouGov could settle it within a few days
There’ve been big moves in the Lib Dem leadership betting following the claims by Camp Campbell that Chris Huhne had reneged on a deal not to stand and a confident performance by the ex-MEP on Question Time last night.
The latest prices have Campbell out from 0.5/1 to 0.72/1 with Huhne in from 3/1 to less than 2/1. The backers have been moving further away from Simon Hughes who has drifted to more than 9/1.
The suggestion that Huhne is standing after telling Campbell he would not seems to have done the 64 year old more harm than good. That this should be raised is being seen as a weakness. It is as though he expected to win this as of right and lacks, perhaps, the killer instinct that seems to be a key quality required of those who put themselves forward to lead their party.
The waiting could soon be over. YouGov are carrying out a members’ poll which should be in one of the papers at the weekend. Given the remarkable accuracy of the firm’s Tory membership surveys punters are well advised to take notice.
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It will be recalled that the final YouGov survey got the Cameron-Davis result to within just one per cent and allowed the internet pollster to repeat its remarkable performance in the 2001 IDS race.
The online format should allow the pollster to find out the second preferences and produce a reasonably good overall prediction. Assuming that the punters are getting this right and Hughes is really out of it then a lot could depend on where his second preferences go.
This is very tight and I have continued to ensure that I win whether it is Campbell or his younger challenger.
Betfair has opened a betting exchange market on the order of the result. Who will come top and who will come second? So far there are few takers and little betting value. Thus Campbell/Huhne is currently priced at 1.41 when you can get 1.7 on Campbell alone.
Mike Smithson
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It surely comes down to second preferences, Mike, doesn´t it? Lib Dems are faced with a very difficult choice: all the candidates are very good and would - in their different ways - make excellent leaders. As various Lib Dem commentators on this site have made clear, their first preference has changed as the leadership campaign has developed. I think the second choice candidates will have “wobbled” even more. I think that I am fairly clear that my first choice will be Chris Huhne, as it has been since nominations closed, but my second preference is much less certain and has changed over the last few days (and may change back again). So - rejoice, rejoice - PBCers have everything still to play for.
And somebody, way back, was thinking that everything was going to be very dull once the ever-lasting Tory leadership campaign was out of the way…..
Sorry - forgot the punch line - So it will be very difficult for YouGov to predict the final result this far out, I think.
I agree there is a long way to go in this race. I’m sure a large proportion of the membership still have no idea who Chris Huhne is.
btw, was it not possible to find a better picture of Campbell?
…..I’m sure a large proportion of the membership still have no idea who Chris Huhne is…..
Which surely means that he will almost certainly increase support as the contest continues. So do we add to his tally in the You Gov poll to get a better idea?
In a two horse race second preferences are irrelevant. Sorry Simon its a two horse race.
1. The second preferences will only matter for those backing Simon Hughes (or whoever finishes third, but it’s looking that way) - the rest won’t get counted.
We don’t know that it is a two horse race, though YouGov might shortly tell us so.
How are Lib Dems going down in Dunfermline? The Herald suggests Ming has been stirring up apathy (and Cameron was greeted by a lot of eager voters who turned out to be bussed-in Tory students: oops). Any reports from the front?
Icarus at 5: Do you have a bar chat for us?
For those remotely interested both the Scotsman and the Herald have a fair bit of coverage on the Dunfermline by-election.
Lib Dems may be embarressed by the Suffolk County Council result at Stowmarket. Must be in serious danger of dropping to fourth behind the Greens. Lib Dem pollled 22.3% in May, general election average in third place, see where they end up today. Greens had 12%. Would expect Cons to consolidate and break away into a strong, very strong lead.
Just an aside, was it my incorrect peception, but watching Huhne last night, he seemed stronger and more assertive than when he appeared a few weeks ago.
re 10. Huhne was much better last night but he does have a David Davis-like tendency to errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
It was amazing how a bit of training transformed Davis. Maybe that’s what Huhne needs.
As for the pictures, 3, afer finding Huhne with the cat on his knee I felt I had to find a less-flattering picture of Ming for “balance”.
What I want to know is why Chris Huhne is sitting on the lap of another fella ?! What a pussy.
And that picture of Ming
…. looks like he’s using embalming fluid rather than the old spice !!
What do you think of this result from South Ayrshire, Max? Does the independent now hold the balance of power on the council?
Brian Connolly Independent 408 27.70% (+27.70%)
Ann Galbraith Conservative 407 27.63% (-00.32%)
Sandra Goldie Labour 342 23.22% (-23.70%)
Bill McCubbin SNP 316 21.45% (+00.96%)
Independent majority of 1 over Conservative.
Turnout = 50.95% (+4.03%)
3 rejected ballot papers (I bet those were hotly contested!)
12 Moi. Moderated again
…. it’s the curse of Mrs. Slocombe’s pu*sy again !!
12 - It’s dissapointing not to win (especially by 1 vote) but not a bad result as the independent was a pretty popular figure in the community. So far as I know he won’t hold the balance of power. Any tied result is settled by the casting vote of the Lord Provost, who is a Tory.
13 Sean. Still with us Sean ?? …. after Rickitts at QT last night, we thought you might have slashed your wrists and gone to that great 1936 conservative conference in the sky ??
Ayrshire South
…. 3 spoiled ballot papers from the Chingford Wing of the Ayrshire South Conservative Association .
11. Watching Huhne on QT last night it wasn’t just his errrr, errr that reminded me of Davis, I think he has the same problem in other ways too; - he is obviously ‘on top of his brief’ he is bright and likeable; but he lacks that certain x factor that is needed in this media age to be, how can I put this, memorable.
It’s extra tough for the Lib dems to fight their way through the tree cover to get their oxygen of publicity as it is.
I am not sure that Huhne will help them get heard outside the slightly closed world of politics.
Labour were the only ones embarrassed in Stowmarket:
Stowmarket South
Conservative 733 votes 35.0% +0.4%
Lib Dem 668 votes 31.9% +9.9%
Green 358 votes 17.1% + 5.0%
Labour 337 votes 16.1% -15.0%
Majority 65 votes 3.1%
Swing 4.7% Con to Lib Dem
Looks like a pretty good Lib Dem result to me.
I note we had an Ayrshire South moment on the previous thread with 561 votes against the previous days record of 559 ….. and Andrea absented himself for most of yesterday morning, otherwise the majority would have been substantially larger ….. such laxity !! ….. mind you we still haven’t had the Birmingham post(al)votes for Wednesday yet !!
3-Russell LD
‘I’m sure a large proportion of the membership still have no idea who Chris Huhne is.’
What’s the story regarding Huhne being an ex MEP, did he lose his seat in 2004, retire,deselected?
I’m surprised by the negative feedback of Huhne’s performance on last night’s QT. Have to say I thought he was very good (but I’m still backing Ming) - and he got a very good reception from the audience. I didn’t notice any Davies-esque err…ing myself.
From a betting POV, I’d have thought today’s the day to put some money on Simon. My guess is the YouGov survey will show him doing a lot better than some seem to think he is, and that’s bound to tighten his price.
20 - No story. He stood down on selection to fight his parliamentary seat.
17. Marcus- get over yourself with the Lib Dems already!
Actually Huhne was pretty good. Does need a bit of work, but clearly pretty promising- and knows his stuff (perhaps even a little too well). Gillan was a bit mumsy and not particularly inspiring, Morgan was demented in that slightly sinister old Labour way- and talk about out of touch with the audience! Surprised that Rickett was allowed out by his Mum- bless!
18 - Labour dropped from a close 2nd to 4th place .
21 - Comments on Huhne at QT on here were generaslly favourable and the obviuos antipathy of Rik W is another big bonus in his favour . My inclination is edging ever more in his direction as my 1st choice .
Result from Aylesbury Vale - a genuine two horse race (not a Lib Dem pretend one!)
Conservative - 557
Lib Dem - 322
And the previously unnopposed ward in Fenland - Con Hold
Tory - 264
LD - 136
Ind - 136
Ind - 39
Lab - 12
Excuse me if I’ve overlooked this, but when will the You Gov results be released?
QT was a weak panel for Chris to compete against but most of the remarks I’ve seen rated him well.
Dunfermline reports eagerly awaited.
7: I was at Dunfermline yesterday on the Walkabout with CK — very amusing the press were nearly killing each other to get a good picture. Good LD turnout, lots from Edinburgh, and the ladies who said they “loved charles” were not plants as claimed by the Herald — great article though, very amusing
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/55545.html
As for the predictions is seems very mixed, the constituency itself is a real patchwork — LD canvas returns were apparently good though, contrary to what was said elsewhere in the herald. The SNP poll was very dodgy apparently — they have a few wards very strong personal support for good councilors.
1. and others. I agree that Lib Dems face a difficult choice; but really, honestly, does anybody think it’s because the candidates are all good and would make excellent Leaders?
I hope that I’m able to put aside my partisan feelings in assessing the quality of Tory politicians, and I’d like to hope that Lib Dems can put aside their feelings when assessing their own “leading politicians”; all three choices are terrible. I’ve always been convinced that Ming was unbeatable because at least he had something - not much - but something about him. Now I accept that Huhne might have a chance - but it seems his great advantage is that no-one knows him and so they ‘re projecting on to him all their dreams and inspirations.
If this is the the best the Lib Dems have to offer they’re in terrible trouble. (Of course it isn’t the best they have to offer, there are three MPs that I know of who would each be a better Leader than any one of these three; but they’re all inexplicably backing Ming).
I’m fairly certain Chris Huhne was relected as an MEP in 2004 and remained one till just after the general election last May when he was elected as an MEP. Because of the (dreadful) list system there was no byelection and the no 3 on the lib dem list replaced him automatically.
I do agree with stephen tall that on spread betting thingy it would be a good time to buy simon. I think this site really underestimates how well hes doing. I’m not saying hes going to win just that i think an accurate members poll will show him doing better than his cuurrent price shows.
31. I don’t understand your first paragraph at all but I’m with you on the second. I think the You Gov survey will show much higher support for Hughes than people here expect and his odds will shorten considerably.
readingliberal@28
I think Huhne did put in a strong performance and it can have only helped his bid.
Anyone know what time the betting markets started to move against Ming? If late last night it could have been QT rather than leaked rage from Ming camp that caused the move.
Is R4 still doing the hustings Any Questions? It’s not tonight if they are.
Nick (8), No bar chart but I because I said I would help Ming’s campaign I was sent some leaflets (bar chart free) with a note that said the rules of the campaign did not allow them to send any addresses but would I distribute them as best as I could but as I dont even have the list of the thousands of members in my consituency - (Sid and Doris Lloyd George) not quite sure what to do with them!
sorry my last post should have said “elected as an MP”. Haven’t been to dumferline but since I posted on this subject yesterday i have had further very odd emails from the party which i don’t belive they would be sending unless they genuinely thoight it was closish.
as for russell at 30. well it pains me to say it but he is right. can any lib dem really say that Hughes,Campbell and Huhne is a better choice than Davey, Clegg and Laws?
There is still a small part of me that wants to put Huhne No1 simply because he has had the guts to stand.
The Stowarket result is indeed good for the Lib Dems and follows the recent two other results since the New Year in the East Anglia, Cambridge area. May suggest they will do quite well in Dunfermaline
I thought It was an underwhelming performance from Huhne on QT- he had no serious competition on that panel and was gifted a week in which he could answer questions on Iraq ,the Environment and civil Liberties. Bread and Butter to A Lib dem
He was even helped by Rhodri Morgans breathtaking Display of self mutilation, that as far as I could tell was completely unnecessary.
He gave predictable answers that got applause but any lib dem could have done the same in that situation, 1 nil isnt enough when youve been given several open goals
32. yes my post at 31 is a bit of a dogs breakfast. i’m suggesting that Chris Huhne was a MEP from 99 to 05 having been reelected in 04. He resigned his Euro seat just after being elected to the commons last may. Because of our list system PR for the Euros there was no by election but the next lib dem on the lib dem list gets to serve the rest of his term. He was top of the list, emma nicholson was number 2 and also elected so it went to no 3 a sharon bowles who has returned the favour by backing him for leader, unlike the dear Baroness!
33. the Any Questions? special was last week.
36: Its not against the bounds of possibility — there seems to be genuinely pleasant surprise in Dunfermline as how well the LD vote was holding up.
38. Thanks, all clear now.
WRT QT last night, I thought Huhne was fairly good from a technocratic point of view, but very much reminded me of John Redwood, albeit a centrist one. He is a “nice” enough man, but I don’t think he really comes across as “personable”, and does have a slightly detached sense to him. Was very convincing on Iraq, unlike the silly Plaid girl.
I though Ricketts veered wildly between vacuous and sensible. Potentially articulate of the “man on the street”, unsure about the value in the Commons. However there are plenty of MPs, including almost all the women on the Labour front bench since 1997, of whom I would say that!
And Rhodri Morgan was just commically awful on the subject of Iraq - in the very worst tradition of Blairitse trying to sell a party line at the expense of divulging information. The way he kept banging on about MPs being given the vote over the war - “it was never given before, not even in the Boer War” - was particularly cringeworthy. I don’t follow Welsh politics much, but this guy is a complete joker.
anatole - nice to see patronising sexism is still thriving in today’s ‘modern compassionate’ Tory party.
39 2jamie. An early indication of the Lib Dems performance in D & FW will be the Betfair market …. little movement in a slow market but also if the local independent bookies in the seat start to pull in the price. Any posters in the area might care to look at the latter for us.
FWIW I’m not detecting any media vibe for Willie …. yet !
I’ve been doing some telephone canvassing for Ming… and Simon is doing very well. Not a big enough sample (and all West Country rural voters so far) to be absolutely sure but he is just ahead of Ming.
43. Perhaps Anatole thinks most of Labour’s post-’97 female front bench team, as individuals, are unsure about the value of the Commons, irrespective of them being women.
Should he keep this view silenced simply because these politicians are women?
perhaps anatole is just a patronising sexist more likely.
44: Should have looked in the high street… learning curve
Anyway may go again before thursday.
One interesting point was how well Chris Huhne went down when he was up canvasing — the locals were very impressed. Nick Clegg as well. The informal chatter seemed to disagree with Jon@45…
How big a boost do posters think the BNP will now get in the local elections in West Yorkshire? Rather a large one, I should imagine.
Could actually be some value in the Dunfermline Race- SNP price versus LD. Reaction to CK was pretty good- SNP looked bad.
49 - It’s generated a huge amount of publicity for them but I’m still unconvinced that it will enable them to do much more than hold what they have.
In fact, I can almost answer my own question. The BNP nearly gained a set last night (and this area certainly isn’t one where you’d expect them to perform well)
Valley Council By-Election Result, Thursday 2nd February 2006.
Heanor and Loscoe Ward
Labour 570
BNP 411
Cons 317
Lib Dem 71
That should say Amber Valley.
Oh don’t be silly, Dunfermline is a two horse race between the Tories and the SSP!
p.s. I wonder how Simon Hughes feels being the third horse?
Lib Dems seem to be throwing the kitchen sink into Dunfermaline, extra money etc which must mean they will flood the place with workers next week to get their leaflets out.
Could mean they think they are doing well or trying to hold their vote.
Not seen the Glasgow result from yesterday, has anyone got it.
55 - It’s not taking place for a couple of weeks (Feb 16th).
PA reports:
Labour’s vote slumped in the year’s first major council by-elections test.
It also saw the far right British National Party surge into second place in one contest on the day its leader was cleared of two race hate charges.
The BNP took more than 30% at Heanor and Loscoe in Derbyshire’s Amber Valley Borough.
It finished 159 votes short of Labour.
BNP leader Nick Griffin was cleared on two charges at Leeds Crown Court yesterday. The jury was unable to reach a verdict on further charges and the Crown Prosecution Service said there would be a retrial.
This was the least bad result for Labour out of four comparable contests which saw its share fall by between 4.1% and 23.2% in a week of Government defeats in the Commons.
It was pushed from first to third place at North Carrick and Maybole East as independent Brian Connolly - by just one vote - thwarted a Tory bid to take overall control at South Ayrshire Council, Scotland, where they may have to rely on the provost’s casting vote.
Labour also slipped from a strong second last May - on the same day as the general election - to fourth behind the Green Party at Suffolk County Council’s Stowmarket South division.
Tories recaptured the seat, which had been represented by one of their members who later became independent, but Liberal Democrats missed by just 65 votes despite their national leadership problems.
Analysis of the four comparable results - fought both times by Labour and Tories - suggests a projected 18.5% nationwide Conservative lead.
Tories appear to have benefited from a collapse in the independent vote at Boston but elsewhere their overall vote share advance was modest with Labour’s slump mainly boosting Lib Dems and others.
The South Ayrshire result - where more than half the electorate turned out - has little significance for next week’s Commons by-election at Dunfermline and Fife West which is the other side of Scotland.
Amber Valley Borough - Heanor and Loscoe: Lab 570, BNP 411, C 317, Lib Dem 61. (June 2004 - Lab 905, C 774). Lab hold. Swing 5.4% C to Lab.
Aylesbury Vale District - Stewkley: C 557, Lib Dem 322. (May 2003 - C 609, Lab 253). C hold.
Boston Borough - Kirton: C 505, Lab 104, Ind 85. (May 2003 - Two seats C 353, Ind 335, C 314, Ind 233, Lab 146). C hold. Swing 16.6% Lab to C.
Fenland District - Manea: C 264, Lib Dem 136, Ind 136, Ind 39, Lab 12. (May 2003 - C unopposed). C hold.
South Ayrshire Council - North Carrick and Maybole East: Ind 408, C 407, Lab 342, SNP 316. (May 2003 - Lab 648, C 386, SNP 283, Scottish Socialist Party 64). Ind gain from Lab. Swing 11.6% Lab to C.
Suffolk County - Stowmarket South: C 733, Lib Dem 668, Green 354, Lab 337. (May 2005 - C 1576, Lab 1446, Lib Dem 1036, Green 563). C gain from Ind. Swing 4.3% C to Lib Dem.
38 - There is no love lost between Huhne and Nicholson. Huhne always gave 110% to support the party across the region and Nicholson did next to nowt. Nicholson won the selection for 1999 by miles while huhne only scraped home, four year later he trounced her in the selection for 2004.
Ming now has the support of 8 MEPs (up three) and of Jenny Willet (taking him to 29).
This must count for Ming (these people can pass the message on) - but I agree with Jon at 45 that Simon is doing much better than the bookies odds suggest.
49. my instinct is not much of a boost. They did well in the “all outs” in 2004 in West Yorks but all there wins were in split wards. in effect given the novelty value of having 3 votes some people gave one to the BNP. I think now we are back to elections by thirds that will focus peoples minds. They have also faced a really sustained press campaign against them (what they have done to some media owners I don’t know!) and most of there sitting councillors have been put through the media mill for appalling attendence records. I’ll be keeping an eye on Heckmondwyke ward in Kirklees which elected a Labour, Lib Dem and BNP councillor in 2004. The picture of the BNP guy shaking the hand of his new (asian) Lib Dem collegue is a classic if only for the look on his face.
while noting the overall drop for labour, i’m interested in the swing from CON to LAB in Amber Valley (a marginal general election seat I think?)
57: “a projected 18.5% nationwide Conservative lead”
That’ll do nicely!
It would produce a 1968-type result in London, Bob.
61: caused by Tory voters making a protest vote for the BNP. Quite why they would do that, God only knows, but they seem to. I suspect they would not do so at a General Election.
One point on the Lib Dem race that I’ll emphasis again is the difference between the activist wonkers, similar to the tofu tendency on this site, and the ordinary armchair beard and sandal bods only taking a passing interest in the contest. The latter make up the vast majority of the near 80,000 membership.
It’s all to easy to think that the entire membership are hanging on every nuance of the fray. They ain’t.
BTW straw in the wind …… further to my 44 news reaches me that mi Lord Rennard has indeed ordered a “kitchen sink operation” in D & FW until polling day. As david(s) indicated @55 this might be damage limitation …… but I’m advised not ….. interesting …… perhaps …… next straw … who are Labour attacking in the seat over the next few days ??
Hughes, trading above 12 at Betfair yesterday, was just traded at 7.8. Somebody knowing (or hoping) something about the YouGov poll?
65. you are right which is why sadly i think ming will win easerly. The arm chair members (or parker knolls) will decide this and have a very different view of things. And that is no bad thing. Politics would be even more detached than it already is if parties were just run by there activists.
Hughes is well known and popular, even with me (and I put him last in 99). Councillors seem to love him.
Random bet, I can’t seem to find a price anywhere, Tories to lose deposit at Dunfermline.
57 - I hope you are right GG! (I´m sure you are right about keeping the activists in touch with ordinary members - not to mention voters.
But Hughes will have got to more members via the Sun than anyone on QT. Expect him to do well.
I don’t think that the You Gov poll will decide anything - but it will surely influence the media debate.
re Peter 59 & other Ming supporters. Don’t you think that he is just too old? I know we have all joked about the picture above but it is very telling. As someone who is about to be 60 I am well aware that you do lose something as you get into your seventh decade and in this TV age this will be magnified.
71 - It’s not the most flattering picture! I can’t help thinking with a bit more facial hair he’d look a bit Like Sir Rhodes Bhoyson. Now there’s someone I’d like to see on the A list!
71: I thought he dealt with that issue very well at QT some weeks ago, and the audience reponding very warmly to him.
Us anoraks need to remind ourselves every day that very few people in this country have any interest in polics.
But I don’t think that applies to party members—surely the most interested 3% (?) of the population.
The LDs 70,000 members (disparagingly here labelled ‘armchair’ members) may be too stupid to make the ‘right’ choice. Possibly they are only sufficiently sentient to vote for grandpa Ming, as he is the only one whose name they recognise.
I don’t buy that scenario. I think those who bother to join any political party will make a considered and concientious choice.
52. Parts of Amber Valley are happy hunting ground for the BNP, I recall a Chanel 4 documentary a few years ago in Langley Mill, I think,
and the BNP got close in a few AVBC seats in May 04.
61. not possible to get any meaningful swing from the figures, where did the BNP vote come from? Labour-Tory- or non voters last time?
dont agree with 64. I do know that the BNP did a hell of a lot of work there though and Labour appeared to do very little. there was a reasonable Tory effort.
I can imagine the result being a protest vote from dissafected OLD Labour voters and a few Tories but mainly from previous non voters woken up by vigourous BNP campaigning.
The BNP eve of Poll leaflet played on a local teenager being attacked by “Asylum seekers”
71 Mike S. Oh Mike …. nearly 60 !! … put on your slippers, dust down the zimmer and prepare for the Co-Op funeral director !!.
BTW Mike what are you losing …. or shouldn’t we ask …… surely not in need of those “spamed” products ……. Lib Dems know when they get old ….. those instincts to race off a bar chart become dimmed and you feel the need to have the tofu minced !!
71 - Mike, as a 28 year-old, Ming’s age doesn’t bother me in the slightest. He wouldn’t be doing this if he didn’t have the energy.
As for the pic, I imagine (tho don’t know) that it was taken during Ming’s illness, when he was well entitled to look less than 100%.
re 76. One thing about getting older is that you need to go to the loo a lot more in the night!
77 - Looking forward to the rugger tomorrow Jack - Dan Parks at stand off - can’t believe it! It’s a bit like putting Adam Rickett on the A list oh hold on . . . .
71. I’m 22 and I have no problems with Ming being the age is his. Indeed a bit of experience may play well for us.
78 Mike S. A Lib Dem frequently going back in the (water) closet !! … now that is news !!
79 Max. Trepidation !! …. as long as Adam Rickitt isn’t a prop !!
64. I would like to think you are right about the BNP vote in Amber Valley being a protest vote by Tories that will return home, Bob, but I’m not sure you are right. Have a look at the GE results in parts of West Yorks and Lancashire and you will see the BNP vote is, unfortunately, getting quite well entrenched. It now presents a real barrier to the Tories in seats like Keighley. The stupid decision to prosecute Griffin et al. will, I fear, only help the BNP - free publicity plus martyrdom.
74. For every 10 lib dem members 3 will be highly active and live and breath the party. another 2 will do a bit at election time and write the odd cheque. Another 3 will have joined via the national website and consider there membership a bit like a subscription to the RSPB or OXFAM. The final 2 will have joined because a local councillor fixed there pavement and he/she knocked on there door and asked them to.
Let me be clear i’m not disparaging anyone. The/any party would cease to exist if it wasn’t for arm chair members. I’m just acknowledging that activists are a differnet breed and a minority in the party. Arm chair members will vote differently.
71 - If I was designing an ideal candidate I might shave a few years off, of course. On the other hand, Ming has the energy and the passion to do the job. He comes over as a warm person, balancing the gravitas/credibility aspect. And clearly the people who see most of him (the MPs) are backing him in droves. One has to trust their judgement. With Ming leading our talented front-bench I think we will look like serious contenders.
For me, Chris has this grey, “John Major” quality that will prevent him connecting with a large part of the electorate.
Simon has very little support from people who see most of him. Loads of enthuisiasm but little credibility?
No - not too old. His persona is warm and affable, and I think that’s of more importance.
I still have reservations about the way Chris Huhne comes over, which weren’t assuaged by QT last night. However, I thought he made an excellent speech in the City yesterday highlighting the lack of business experience in the government.
83 - the usual estimate is that activists comprise roughly 10% of the total membership. Which means about 7-8,000 activists.
If turn-out is c.60-65%, then some 45,000 members in total will vote, of whom about 37,000 will therefore be non-activists.
Fred, indeed their vote in West Yorkshire was disturbingly high (I think they held their deposits in most seats they contested). It may represent the floor, rather than the summit of their support. In Stoke on Trent, there was a Mayoral election on the same day as the GE, and the BNP candidate won twice as many votes as their general election candidates (who all saved their deposits).
Here’s Ciciero
Fascinating problem for Labour in Tower Hamlets, where famously a Labour councillor wanted a “men only” Mayor making a couple of years ago.
Despite the rule from Party HQ that every winnable ward has to have at least one woman candidate, Labour were only able to announce 14 women in 17 wards for 51 seats.
It has just been discovered that 5 of the 14 (all Muslim) women have dropped out. This includes the first Somali to be nominated as a candidate.
Labour will agin be fielding a massive slate of male Bengali candidates, mostly aged over 45.21 out of 33 current councillors are Male Bengali with just one aged under 45.
Bearing in mind that male Bengalis represent about 18% of the Borough and those aged over 45 less than 10% it makes a very, very inclusive selection process.
It will be interesting to see what spin Roger and Nick Palmer can put on this
88 - A very thoughtful and balanced critique! I’m sure many in the Republican party would have made similar arguments in favour of Bob Dole.
87. to contradict my earlier point the 04 Euro Election in yorkshire was there best result in the Country. Only the reduction in the number of MEP’s stopped them winning a seat. The Yorks and Humber list was reduced from 8 to 7. there percentage share of the vote would have given them the 8th seat had it existed under d’hont. Perhaps you are right?
87. Has there been any studies into the rise of the BNP. In my seat, they came close to saving their deposit which is worrying. (There man at the count said be would punch anyone who called him a racist, what a delightful chap). In my experience, a lot of the support comes from heartland labour areas. They pray on reactionary people who would have voted Labour whilst the Tories were in power believing they would be looked after. As with many grass is greener attituses, they now feel failed and are letting their worst instincts prevail.
One wonders where this will end, but putting Griffin and the like on trial will not help. It will only drive them on. They need to be defeated intellectually.
90 - Are you from West Yorkshire GG - if so what do you attribute the (relative) success of the BNP to?
Re. last night’s QT - I see Adam Rickitt’s biog. says he turned down a place to read law at Cambridge. So there’s more to him than the actor/singer thing, although arguably he should go back to university first before trying to get on the gold list.
I wish I could find a study that was published in Autum 2004, into voter attitudes in the London Assembly elections, Woody.
IIRC correctly, the proportion of BNP support drawn from ex-Labour and ex-Conservative supporters was quite similar. BNP supporters tended to be working class, male, and either young or old.
There was an interesting set of questions about what party supporters thought of other political parties. There was mutual loathing between Conservative voters and BNP voters, but both groups thought highly of UKIP, and were quite willing to give second preference votes to UKIP in the Mayoral ballot.
The non-activist vote may well be different from the activisit. My (unscientific) feeling if that that will harm SH, because of the generally unattracive ‘noise’ surrounding him. But I think that it won’t help grandpa Ming as much as his supporters hope.
If a party member is invited to vote for the leader, I suspect many (most?) will make an effort to see who is who? They may be more impressed with Ming than CH when they see them, but they won’t be voting ‘blind’.
Woody, I think there’s no doubt that a strong and active Conservative association does seem to be a barrier to BNP success in any given area.
Where they seem to gain is in areas where (a) Labour have tended to win for time out of mind and (b) the Conservatives used to be a clear second, but have seen their support and activist base dwindle away.
And here’s the other Cicero:
http://www.bartleby.com/9/2/1.html
There are of course, exceptions to my theory, such as Broxbourne.
59 and elsewhere, Peter, Hughes’ support is very soft among most people. They are seeing the momentum for Huhne. This is completely unlike the ‘99 election when everyone was surprised at quite how badly Rendel and Ballard did - even from what I can see amoong armchair members. Certainly I’ve seen some switching to Huhne especially from Hughes supporters, but some from Ming as well.
What won’t be discovered (unless there’s breach-of-the-rules phone canvassing going on) is the ‘noise’ with Campbell and Hughes - 95 you may be right. The odd thing will be the effect of yesterday’s Times and the poisonous smears from the Campbell camp, with their echoes of the briefing against Kennedy. Who knows?
96. Yes, from my seat, their votes cames from 2 main areas. One was an ex mining town/village and the big council estate. There are of course, no ethnic minorities living within these two areas and they have zero impact on their lives. Their voters are just seeking to blame others for their own failings.
I still believe it is a result of Labour moving into the centre. Many of the BNP voters loath the conservative party and the people who vote for it. With labour now talking the tory talk, the BNP is the only place for them to vote with their prejudice, which has changed from classism to racism.
Expect the yougov poll to show Ming well ahead. The “selected” memebrs poll for ITV will show him in the lead, I gather. Huhne will obviously be up by a huge amount as he polled zero in the last poll! Still take Ming to win (or effectively win with, say 48% - 49%) on the first ballot, and think that the odds on Huhne coming (a good) third are attractive. The breakdown of MPs is now 30 for Ming, 11 for Hughes, 11 for Huhne and 10 undecided or deliberately undeclared.
I was involved in the series of by elections in Barking and Dagenham where the BNP rose and fell.
They are seriously strange people. The candidate elected for the Goresbrook ward (overwhelmingly white and very C2) lasted just 10 months and it resulted in a second by election. he was a complete non entity, but was white and had lived in the area most if not all his life.
The leaders of the local BNP (and the 2005 Parliamentary candidates) were Richard Barnbrook who lives in Lewisham and Lawrence Rustem, who is half turkish.
On general election day the local paper published details of a gay pornographic art film, written and directed by Richard Barnbrook and starring Dick Barnbrook. It hindered his election day efforts in Barking
The elected councillor gave up in the summer and the by election was held in September - the new candidate was Rustem. The BNP leadership were dreadful to him in public, referring “jokingly” to his poisened genes and calling him a n*****. They werer rapidly asked to leave pubs and even coffee shops
The weather was very hot and during the campaign Rustem became less and less “aryan” in appearence.
The BNP campaign is organisationally clever. They keep the head bangers off doorsteps and go out in groups, usually with women who always smile and look, well they smile.
Labour, Conservative and indeed UKUIP, canvassers reported that voters having given them a chance were very turned off. One woman siad “I was interested in what they were saying but when you see them, they are weird”
At the count(s) at several of Barking and Dagenham’s numerous by elections. The candidates tended to be sidelined and extremely dubious figures such as Tony Lecomber would appear and direct operations. It is clearly a party within a party. Effectively the nazi element is locked up until the last minute
They always walk out when the result was known, before the declaration.
At the last by election in this cycle (Becontree) the BNP candidate was not seen until the count, where he sat at the back of the room.
I refuse to acknowledge them in any way, but understand that he stood because he was asked and was horrified at the reaction from neighbours and other locals.
Interesting to see if this pattern is repeated
100: Can it be so simple? If that were so it would seem to disagree with Sean Fear’s contention that the BNP could cost Tory chances of revival in Yorkshire/Lancashire seats. I actually agree with Sean - some of the seats that produced a high BNP vote-share were Tory at the zenith of Thatcherism (Bradford West, Dudley North, Batley & Spen, Pendle, Hyndburn). The implication is that some current BNP voters went for Thatcher’s Tories and I suspect their current inclination could cost your chances of regaining some of these.
George Galloway BEATS Blair and Cameron AGAIN
http://www.respectcoalition.org/?ite=978
47. Well one of us is certainly being patronising. To infer sexism from my post would, I submit, say rather more about you than me.
I do believe that the women chosen by Blair to front his government since 1997 are a peculiarly second-rate. They list reads, as has been noted before, as a Who’s Who of the giants of mediocrity of our age - Hewitt, Hodge, Beckett, Kelly, Jowell, etc. I’m not saying there aren’t several other lightweights, all of whom contribute towards making this administration the least intellectual since Baldwin’s - Straw, most particularly - but it does seem that as far as women are concerned it is true without exception. Needless to say, this smacks of an attempt by the High Command, either to promote women for the sake of it over talent, or of the desire to stuff the bench with Blairites. Either way it is not healthy.
100. Interesting insight Woody and I’m sure you are right that the BNP has been successfully getting support amongst disaffected working class voters many of whom would in the past have been Labour voters. There are parts of the North where they are getting more middle class support too, though, like the area around Burnley. Next time around, unless this trend can be stopped, I think they may well get a couple of decent second places in Westminster seats.
Interesting front page in Nottingham Evening Post re BNP & Amber Valley by election.
The BNP have been reported to the Police for “unfounded” claims that “3 asylum seekers raped a local woman”. Police said a local english born white male has been arrested for the rape. and a file on the BNP leaflets sent the the CPS
Dreadful Labour result in Suffolk; hard to read all the others with Independents and BNP moving in and out of the equations. I know Amber Valley well as it’s next door to Broxtowe (indeed less than half a mile from where I’m writing). There is a clump of old mining towns around here with significant BNP sympathy - they got 40% in a parish election in Brinsley, a sleepy village, and Ilkeston in Erewash constituency also has some far-right elements. They get mainly disaffected working-class votes who used to vote Labour when the Tories were in but now might vote anything or nothing. No doubt the Griffin trial coverage helped.
Could the BNP’s (very modest) rise also be due to a justified sense, in the white working class, that nobody looks out for their interests any more?
Tories are Tories, regarded as too posh in many areas to really give a fig about poorer people. The Lib Dems are simply middle class. Labour, who used to represent white workers, are also much more middle class than they used to be. Additionally, Labour yearns to be a rainbow coalition - feminists, greens, ethnic minorities - while at the same time appearing to despise and revile the values of ordinary white working class people - patriotism, an affection for royalty, etc.
Why does Labour do this? I think it’s a personal class issue for many on the left. A lot of Labour activists and MPs etc are socially insecure, having only just risen from the poor working classes themselves. So they understandably seek to distance themselves from working class attitudes, indeed they often revile those attitudes (simple patriotism, etc) - because they are scared of expressing attitudes that might typify themselves as being still of the working class.
All of which means the white working classes in parts of the country have nobody who represents them, except a bunch of thugs like the BNP. Which I think is a shame and a scandal, and I hope Cameron’s Tories can amend that.
205-”They list reads, as has been noted before, as a Who’s Who of the giants of mediocrity of our age - Hewitt, Hodge, Beckett, Kelly, Jowell, etc”
Beckett and Hewitt are both good IMO, but I find Jowell pretty mediocre.
The quality of the 1997 female intake? yes, there were some appaling MPs (the Venerable Helen above all), but there were some good quality women too.
And the same thing could be said for the male intake.
103. I can only go by my experience in my area. Obviously they will get spasmodic support across all classes, where they let their worst instincts prevail. I know of people who would be classed as middle class who are racist because of their parents influence.
84: That would be the “grey” quality John Major had that enabled him to get the largest vote for the Conservatives *ever* at the 1992 general election, then…
One of the more notable things I’ve heard about David Cameron is that he is, apparently, the first Tory leader that the general populace finds more appealing than the Tory party, since John Major.
I wouldn’t, therefore, discount Huhne on the basis of comparisons with John Major.
Stephen Pound looks, uhm, good in this outfit:
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2006/02/03/review200.jpg
Sean @ 94. I think you’re thinking of Helen Margetts et al. There is a chapter based on their research in a Joseph Rowntree paper paper here - http://www.jrrt.org.uk/Far_Right_REPORT.pdf
110. Yes but Andrea, I am no talking about the parliamentary intake, which I’m sure would not vary much between all parties, but rather those who were promoted to the front bench. There are good reasons why you might have mediocre constituency representatives; there is no such excuse for staffing government.
109. I’m not sure we will have any impact of the BNP support Sean. Their voters tend to loath the conservtaives and the hatred is deeply ingrained. The Cameron approach is to go after the middle classes that have switched to Labour and young professionals. I don’t really see Cameron offering anything that will bring in racists.
111. No, this contempt for the people who vote BNP, by dismissing them as just ‘racist’, will not do. Nor does it help us understand the appeal of the BNP - so as to better combat it.
I think for many people voting BNP is like voting Pim Fortuyn in Holland, or Jean Marie le Pen in France, it’s a sod you to the liberal elite, who seem to look down on the ordinary patriotic values of white working class people.
It is also of course a protest against the effects of multiculturalism and mass immigration. But its a protest coming from the people who suffer the negative side-effects of these phenomena more than the insulated middle clsses. If you were white and had kids at a school where, say, 80% of the other children were Muslim, you might get a bit annoyed at politicians preaching racial tolerance to you - when these politicians put their kids in nice private schools or selective pseudo-grammar schools.
A vote for the BNP does not, necessarily, make the voter a racist. We need to understand why people are feeling like this - before the BNP gets an actual MP.
Show trials of BNP leaders don’t help, either.
112 I don’t discount him at all, Timothy. I have in mind that poll in which voters were shown a clip of the candidates (featured on this site).
Woody @ 16. According to the Margetts et al study BNP voters don’t actually loathe the Conservatives Woody (well, they might well do so in Burnley and Dewsbury - I suspect they do - but they don’t in London).
Look at the diagram on p.14 of the paper I linked to above. It asked votes fo each party if they would consider voting for other parties. Amongst BNP voters the net rating (i.e. the % of BNP voters who would consider voting Tory minus those who wouldn’t consider voting Tory) was +21. The only other party they had a positive net figure for was UKIP (+71, suggesting the overwhelming majority of BNP voters would happily vote UKIP).
116. I refer you to my post at 117.
Tho… I think Cameron CAN reach these people as Thatcher did, or at least his team can. Hague et al can evince a proper patriotism - and a common sense northern opposition to the wilder lunacies of political correctness.
There’s a lot of votes there. And we need to save these unhappy people from the sweaty clutches of the BNP. Thatcher single handedly screwed the NF. We can do the same.
you could always try running a general election warning of britain becoming a foreign land again Sean…I’m sure it would be just as successful as it was in 2001.
109: I’d agree with much of SeanT’s analysis, except that I don’t think the cultural factors are that important. The BNP have had much less success in Scotland where there has been a vigorous opposition to Labour from the left from the SSP, and the SSP haven’t had to compromise on issues such as asylum seekers or gay rights.
The BNP have to an extent successfully gone into these areas where Labour arrogantly assume they ‘own’ the vote and spent time on the ground convincing pwople that the reason they’ve been forgotten is because of ‘those other folk’, by which they don’t, unfortunately, mean the champagne-quaffing classes of the Square Mile…
I think this is a very dangerous aspect of the FPTP system which is often not touched upon. By forcing the main parties to fight only in the ‘centre’ over the ’swing’ voters in the ‘marginal’ constituencies, it breeds not apathy, but deep frustration in wide swaths of the country who don’t see their point of view being represented.
It’s interesting that Tory attempts to win these votes [dog-whistle campaigns, etc] seem to have failed completely as the voters have mostly decided to go for the ‘real thing’ in terms of the BNP if they are very fed up with saylum seekers, etc. By contrast, the Lib Dems seemed to pick up more votes in Labour seats than the Tories [or BNP] did by opposing Labour from the left [increasing tax on the rich, opposing Iraq war].
It seems to me that the ‘heartland’ Labour vote is likely to deteriorate further at the next election. I’m not sure whether four years of rebranding and repositioning is going to be enough to give Cameron’s Tories any chance of scooping up votes there [FPTP means they wouldn’t get any seats anyway…], but I’m more interested to see whether the scramble by the Lib Dems to join in with the other two centre-right parties will end up losing them votes in Labour core areas next time. Then where else will they go? Greens? BNP?
From a betting point of view it makes me wonder what the spread bets for Labours percentage at the next general election are. Could be heading quite low…
121. Well that’s helpful.
BNP
Id say with regard to their votes Social Class is more important than party ( lab or Tory) in particular id say that Durkheims views on ‘Anomie’ are relevant - Namely that as societies become more industrialised ( and now post- industrialised) there is less space for the unskilled.
As seasonal , temporary , agricultural and factory work dries up for this part of society they become more marginalised. they will also be the group that encounters ( they live in the cheapest most cramped housing where immigrants will be placed )or feels most threatend by immigration ( cheaper unskilled labour).
Interestingly at the GE the BNP made a strategy of appealing to Afro caribean and Sikh voters along these lines ( ” theres too much immigration ,any more and you will lose your position “)
both Lab and Tory were able to appeal to these voters for either economic or nationalistic reasons. While many have been arguably abandond by Nulab in its march to the centre , this is a group of voters that may well feel disenfranchised by Camerons attempts to make the tory’s ‘ Compassionate’
another key factor is low turn out - they become proportionately more powerful the less other people vote .
Isnt the quote along the lines of ” all that Tryranny needs is for good men to do nothing”
116. I think it’s too simplistic to dismiss the BNP voters as ‘racist’, after all 800,000 people voted for them at the last GE. Large parts of their program appeal to people. If they continue to make progress on the fund-raising front and ditch some of their madder economic policies they could do a Vlaams Blok style breakthrough to the political mainstream. Don’t say it can’t happen here…
119,120. I can only go by my experience. Might be different in other areas. I’m not sure if Cameron will appeal or set a stall out for BNP voters though.
122. There are some strange cross currents going on in some of the Northern and Midland working class seats though - the Lib Dems last time were picking up votes from ethnic minorities due to Iraq, the BNP from resentful white voters. Both sets of voters were historically inclined to Labour. If this continues there could be some weird results down the road, with parties winning seats on maybe 30% of the vote or even less.
We should be also aware that the BNP could well be in a position to garner protest votes from smokers in Labour working class areas who may feel their lifestyle of a drink and smoke with friends down the local pub is being threatened by all the major parties .
My impression is that in West Yorkshire, at least, the BNP has a slightly higher calibre of activist, than in East London, where, as Peter Golds says, they are a very strange bunch indeed. Even Searchlight has said their Calderdale councillors are quite effective.
Apologies if this has already been covered, but just done the You Gov poll of Lib Dems.
It did ask for who you would put as number 2, and also asked for ratings on visability, experience, whether they are a potential prime minister etc. as well as how many seats they would win off the tories and labour.
Assuming the sample is sound should give a pretty clear steer on the state of play.
We’ve talked about the possible impact of the Griffin trial on this week’s BNP success. I wonder whether the furore over the Danish cartoons and the other violent manifestations of Islamic alieniation from the basic norms of (now) secular western societies, also played, and frankly will continue to play into the hands of political extremists. And also to heighten alarm among those who, by no stretch of the imagination, are remotely racist or fascist inclined?
Obscurantism tends to be catching…
30. Are you a declared Party member, or are Yougov sampling people who have said they voted Lib Dem in the past but may not be Party members? The sample is pretty crucial in this case!
131. Yup. I wrote an article about the Griffin trial, and read all the evidence. Apart from the usual pseudo-racist bilge, the most sensational statement from Griffin, as reported in court, was when he said ’sooner or later a 2nd generation Pakistani born in Bradford will set off a bomb in a British city’.
Griffin said that 18 months BEFORE 7/7.
I wonder how many people, reading that report from Griffin’s trial, compared his astonishing clairvoyancy with the less forthright or downright clumsy statements from mainstream politicians, and thought: mmm.
Griffin is a rather sad man, but he is no fool. Giving him the airtime of a political showtrial was insane; mix that with the furore over the Danish cartoons and its a dangerous mix where far right parties could prosper in the UK.
Jack Straw so nakedly kowtowing to his Muslim constituents and condemning the Danish cartoons doesn’t help, either. What about his white constituents who quite fancy a bit of free speech about Islam?
Messy.
71 - Mike, I’m pretty sure that the photo of Ming was taken while
he was fighting cancer so his appearance is not surprising.
He’s looking somewhat healthier now.
On the leadership front I will be very surprised if Hughes
does not do considerably better than is currently being
forecast.
Finally on Dunfermline I have received appeals from Lord
Rennard along the lines that he doesn’t normally make this
many calls for help unless we’re in with a genuine chance of
winning. We shall see.
125. “800,000 people voted for them at the last GE”.
Where did you get that figure from? 192,000 more like.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4519347.stm
The Danish cartoons are pretty tame - but not according to several fruits and nuts whose letters are printed in today’s Guardian.
BNP; I think the Tories will have some trouble in attracting BNP voters at the next election if they continue on their march to the centre ground.
As has been touched on above the BNP attract both voters who feel marginalised by the liberal elite, as well as middle/upper class little-England types.
These people care about immigration, assylum seekers etc. Exactly the issues Cameron will want to avoid at the next GE in order to attract the Middle classes, who so heavily voted for Blair in 1997, and have either stuck with Labour or not voted since then.
Likewise Labour are unlikely to attract these votes because of their need to appeal to the Middle class and ethnic minority vote.
nc @ 132 I’m a civil servant so I couldn’t possibly comment.
But the first question is whether you are a member of Labour, Tories or Lib Dems.
Intriguingly I note our intrepid defender of the government Mr. Palmer suggested earlier the Griffin trial may have helped the BNP vote. How does this square with his support of the recent ‘religious hatred’ bill, I wonder - given that would risk criminalising far less unpleasant people than Griffin and by extension risk giving the far right even more ammunition?
“Egyptian ferry sinks in Red Sea
A ferry carrying about 1,400 people, most of them Egyptians, has sunk in the Red Sea.”
This doesn’t look good.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4676916.stm