Dunfermline - could Cameron win the aftermath?
February 4th, 2006-
Will even a modest performance be spun as a “victory”?
With hundreds of activists from the four main parties heading to Dunfermline this weekend ahead of Thursday’s Westminster by-election there can be no doubt, surely, that Labour is going to hang on.
The party got 20,111 last May to the Lib Dems’ 8,549, the SNP’s 8,026 and just 4,376 votes for the Tories. This contest has got a “Labour with a substantially reduced majority on a low turnout” written all over it.
In the betting Labour are heavy odds on favourites and on Betfair there’s not even a separate listing for Cameron’s Conservatives.
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For the Tories, as received opinion has it, don’t DO by-elections and they certainly don’t DO Scotland.
Yet could the first electoral test under their new leader see them getting the biggest boost when the result from from the Dunfermline and West Fife in announced early next Friday morning?
Starting from fourth place with just 10% of the vote gives so much potential for improvement - and this is where the spinners come in. For the current media narrative is that we are seeing a return two party politics and anything that even gives a hint to support this view will be be magnified.
Add to this the rows the local Tory party has had over candidate selection and that Dunfermline and West Fife is Gordon Brown-land - he even lives in the seat - and you have a good story for the Friday TV bulletins.
The other element that is part of the media narrative is the Lib Dem position and it is no wonder that the party is throwing everything into the fight over the final few days. Holding on to that second place is critical for them.
The SNP also badly need something positive out of the result and will be trying to squeeze into that number two position.
So next Thursday is not about whether Labour retains the seat but about which party is able to show it has got the most momentum behind it.
Mike Smithson
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The rows within the local party have been overplayed somewhat.
The press will spin it heavely if there’s anything else to spin about that by-election.
How will the result impact the Lib Dem leadership race? My view is that a poor showing will be held against Ming: if he cannot enthuse voters in his own back yard what is the point of him? More subtly, a neutral result might be good for Simon Hughes if spun as showing recent events aren’t held against him.
Unlikely Mike. This is a strangely speculative story, and one that looks designed to lead an agenda. You could easily ask how the Lib Dems would spin it with a big boost (assuming they don’ win) - or the SNP. Someone will correct me about this, but the fourth party rarely gets a boost in these situations anyway do they - the tendency is for them to stay the same / go back. Does the reverse apply - can we spin that Cameron has no electoral effect whatsoever if they get less percentage?
It’s not been a great week for Labour so I wouldn’t expect a very good result, but I gather all three British parties are trying hard (don’t know about the SNP as I lack the contacts) and Labour winning with LDs a fairly good second looks the most likely. It’ll be interesting to see if the LibDems or SNP can squeeze the Tory vote - doubt it, as in this sort of situation the remaining vote is the tribal hard core, like Labour in Bexhill or the Tories in Bolsover. As Mike says, a modest and well-spun Tory revival seems more likely.
1 - Please espee. The Tory Group Leader on the local council resigns from the party during a by-election when the top issue is Forth Bridge Tolls AND he learn’t of the Tory policy (on this local government issue) from a leaflet put through it door you cannot describe the problems of the local tories as overblown.
Prof John Curtice predicted “It’s going to be close” between Labour and SNP in the Dunfermline by election, which was front page news in the local paper Thursday.
http://www.dunfermlinepress.com/news/NewsFrameset.htm
What does Prof Curtice know about this one that no one else does?
It would take any party to perform really badly for them not to try and spin this one…
Given that any Labour victory is likely to be with a reduced majority / percentage, there’s room for all the other parties to do okay, and to present any points rise as ‘progress’, whilst Labour will portray holding a seat in troubled times as a victory anyway. Also, there will be the somewhat facile comments about how the other parties still cannot defeat Labour etc etc.
The only dangers for any party that I can see here is if the Libs get overtaken by the SNP, in which case - regardless of any increase in percentages - it will be hard for the Libs to spin it other than as ‘an expected result in a troubled time’ but still showing momentum.
If the Tories come other than fourth, that will be a heavy defeat for whichever party they can overtake, and would give the lead for some heavy positive tory spin. If they fail to make a real impact it will de dismissed as a squeeze from the other two challengers in a seat where they had no hope of being the party of protest.
All in all, likely to be a very boring result, but outside possibilities of serious damage to one or other minor opposition party, with an even remoter chance of glory!
re 4. Paul you say can we spin that Cameron has no electoral effect whatsoever if they get less percentage?
The answer, I would suggest is yes - particularly as he has become closely involved in the campaign. This is Cameron’s first electoral test and if the party sticks on 10% or does worse than last May then that is very bad news.
Someone might know this but I was trying to research the number of by-elections in recent times where the Tory share has actually gone up. They improved just a touch in Cheadle but before that the party’s by-election performance was abysmal and I could not find the last time.
9. In the 1997-2001 Parliament their % of votes increased in Unbridge (+7.6% in 1997), Eddisbury (+2.3% in 1999), Wigan (+1.1% in 1999), Kensigton and Chelsea (+2.8% in 1999), Ceridigion (+1.6% in 2000), Tottenham (+0.3% in 2000), Preston (+3.1% in 2000)
10 - on that basis I reckon we should see a rise of at least 4% if there is to be any possible indication of progress, given that they have ‘hopefully’ progressed beyond the apalling state they were in during that parliament…
11. In the 2001-2005 they lost votes in all by-elections they fought and the tories situation wasn’t worse than the one in 1997-2001 period.
I noticed that there were much more by-elections in the 1997-2001 parliament than in the 2001-2005. In particular there were just 4 MPs who died between 2001 and 2005. We’ve already 3 deaths in less than a year in this parliament: it’s worrying!
I’d be very surprised to see any kind of Tory revival anywhere in Scotland under any leader, ever. I remember back in the mists of time having Laing as my MP. Things have changed in politics since those days and Scotland is and always will be the natural home of the left. Oh for an English parliament!
What happens if the Tories come 5th behind John McAllion and the SSP?
14. It would be a great win for Socialism….
Btw, today is the 10th anniversary of rail privatisation:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=29992&SESSION=875
13. Scotland is and always will be the natural home of the left.
Not true. Back in the 1950’s, the Tories held a majority of seats in Scotland.
Uhm, it seems SNP and John Reid don’t get along well (related to the by-election):
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=29966&SESSION=875
16. Agreed, it wasn’t but is now and ever will be IMHO
For what it’s worth… I go along with the suggestion on (I think) a previous thread that the Lib Dems are surprised at how well their support is holding up, and think a decent result is not out of the question. It’s hard to tell whether the flurry of emails, etc., from Lord Rennard et al is a serious attempt to win or just an effort to produce a better-than-expected result, but such phone canvassing as I’ve done (limited, but in a Labour ward) has looked quite decent for the Lib Dems, with little sign of the Tories (or SNP, come to that).
That said, of course, Lib Dem prices seem to be drifting on Betfair, with the SNP second favourites, so I suppose that means not much money is going on them.
O/T - The revised confirmed boundaries for Tyne and Wear published last month moved 1 Lib Dem ward from Newcastle North to Central and 1 Labour ward from Central to North . Even with this change both Newcastle East and North are much better prospects for the Lib Dems than Central as opposed to the results at the last GE .
Andrea - thanks for the EDM e-mail - very well spotted. Unfortunately I can’t reply to work e-mails from home - I’ll send you a reply on Tuesday.
19 Theamount of money on Betfair is quite small and I would think that the SNP prices especially and perhaps the Lib Dem price has been subject to ramping at times .
MP has affair, loses front bench job but refuses to resign seat.
17. Of all the ways of campaigning in an election, sticking down an EDM seems to me a bit of a strange one. Who will notice it? If you’re going to release it to the press, why not just do a press release? It strikes me that the audience being played to isn’t the electorate of Dunfermline.
Is it not usual that the fourth party and beyond gets squeezed in by-elections?
Andrea, have just been on Julian H’s site and discovered that you joined it on Christmas Day last year. How did you have the time?
26. In my experience the site is far more interesting than Christmas Day with the family.
I should stress though that it isn’t “my” site - it was founded mainly by Book Value and Tabman.
For anyone wondering what we’re on about:
http://www.liberalism2010.tsohost.co.uk/liberalviews/
Yes, that’s…
http://www.liberalism2010.tsohost.co.uk/liberalviews/
26. I think I did out of desperation after seeing many more (distant) family members coming into my home………at the beginning it’s nice, but at the end of day I start to wonder “when will they go?”
27 Have just followed the link from the site to http://www.politicalcompass.org/... Apparently I’m to the left of Tony Blair… I’m obvious not having a good day!
28 In our house we can generally get rid of the stragglers by suggesting a nice brisk walk on Boxing Day!
30. I’ve already tried to say I was going out for a walking….they wanted to join me in the walking!
31 You need to be more ostentatious about putting on a coat, hat, gloves, scarf, hiking boots, fetch a walking stick… If you can give them impression that the foothills of the Alps are you’re destination then you will scare off even the most hardy relatives.
32. My hope is that the TV will offer an old movie to entertain old relatives…a movie from the times when Judy Dench was young (because apparently even Judy Dench was young at one time….many centuries ago)
33 Rumour has it Jack W was young once too…
29. That site is somewhat left biased I am afraid (I come out around -6 on both social and economic!).
I was informed to try this one, which is better (although US based, and I still come out as a Socialist)
http://www.okcupid.com/politics
35 I did at least manage a 4.25 on the left/right scale. What on Earth did you agree with to get -6?
34. Middle aged at the time, I think!
I’ve just realised I’ve never seen Judy Dench young! I recall to have seen movies with a young Venessa Redgrave (Murder on the Orient Express and Julia, her controversial Oscar speech)….I even recall Maggie Smith was still the same even when she was young….but no Dench’s memories…what are her major films at the time?
Surely Gordon Brown has most to lose whatever way the by-election goes. Even if labour win with a reduduced majority the press will wonder about his ability to win a General Election.
I saw Michael Cricks report on Newsnight but I could not tell who he thought was in the lead. He kept asking voters if they thought CK should still be leader of Lib Dems. It is a silly qustion at this stage, right or wrong its done.
36. I have no idea! I did take the test while a bit tipsy at an election party, so that may explain the result.
But then again I may just be in denial, perhaps I should come to terms with the fact that I am a raving liberal lefty…
Hi there-been away for a few days, but a few thoughts:
I thought Chris Huhne was impressive on Question Time on Thursday, and I might well give him my second preference, he seemed to play the audience well and genuinely seemed to communicate what being a liberal meant to him.
Still supporting SH but it’s not looking good at the moment. I don’t think he’s as much an outsider as people are saying, but he’s got ground to make up.
I don’t really think that Dunfermline will be that significant, as the LDs have a low profile there, despite our usually solid bye-election results. Had the current bye-election been somewhere like Cheadle, a key Lib Dem seat, then it would be much more important.
I agree that Dunfermline is likely to be a Labour hold, with all parties likely to be able to spin it out as a good result for them. Cameron seems to have staked a lot on it though; he could suffer if the Conservatives don’t amke progress.
39 On your site from 35 I get “You are a Social Conservative
(35% permissive)and an… Economic Conservative (80% permissive)
You are best described as a:Strong Republican
You exhibit a very well-developed sense of Right and Wrong and believe in economic fairness.”
I’m not sure I like the idea of being any % permissive… but there you have it!
At a loose end but just took both of those tests again to see if I’ve shifted - answer - no, exactly where I was last time.
Politicalcompass - pretty central (+1.5) and very libertarian (+8!).
The other one - 85% social liberal, 81% economic conservative - result - Libertarian.
Is there any wonder I can’t find a permanent political home
?
37 Prior to 1980, Judi’s Filmography is Love In A Cold Climate (TV mini-series) (1980),On Giants’ Shoulders (TV) (1979),The Comedy Of Errors (TV) (1978),Dead Cert (1974),Luther (1974),A Midsummer Night’s Dream (1968),Four In The Morning (1966),He Who Rides A Tiger (1966),Days To Come (TV) (1966),A Study In Terror (1965),The Third Secret (1964)… Never seen any of them!
42 Hey Paul you must make a perfect equlateral triangle with Reagan and Hilary Clinton on the graph … That is quite a weird place to be?!?
37, 43, And Judi is having ‘Tea with Mussolini’ this evening on Channel 4. Hope he shared the cup cakes.
And, Andrea, I read that many of Milan’s local govt computers were infected with this Karma Sutra virus thinggy doo-dah
. I trust you have an alibi 
35. I ended up as 70% permissive on social issues and 20% on economic issues.
I’m a socialist: I exhibit a very well-developed sense of Right and Wrong and believe in economic fairness.
43. Thanks. Not sure if I’ve seen any of them…I’ve to translate some titles.
41. Lol! I believe I was 75% socially liberal and 18% economically liberal. Quite accurate really, but something I will hide from my family!
42. Come join us LDs, we are a broad church!
https://www.libdems.org.uk/support/join.html
Right then, tis ruggers time!
Sorry Andrea, but I am not holding out much hope for the Italians today, and I do like the way the Irish play.
46 Does that site tell everyone they have “a very well-developed sense of Right and Wrong and believe in economic fairness.” I’m diametrically opposed to you on their graph, but I got that too!
45. An alibi for what? why do I need an alibi?
Btw, I’ve seen her in “Tea with Mussolini’.
44 - My politics has always come from my belief in personal freedom, whether in scial or economic issues.
47.”Sorry Andrea, but I am not holding out much hope for the Italians today, and I do like the way the Irish play. ”
Rugby? Have we won at least a match in the past?
50 And if you look at their all voters graph, you have a lot of company… On the famous persons graph they couldn’t think of anyone though… Maybe you should start you’re own party??
51 You beat Argentina and Fiji last year I think.
Re 7. Curtice may be right, but I have a hunch he bases this on the poll that had the Lib Dems 13% nationally and 11% in Scotland
10% behind the Conservatives. However the LD’s have since been at 17% or more and their polling performance on Thursday went in line with 17% or better. I suspect if he had held his assessment back to Friday he may have had a different approach.
Rennard does not say the Lib Dems are second, but talks of catching up to win. The Lib Dems have not produced any canvassing figures, the SNP claim they are second on these. Yet Alec Salmond is being quoted as disappointed with his parties turn out of workers - mind you that could be bluff.
One interesting possible conclusion is a close three way race.
Say only 2-3,000 votes between, Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems in whatever order. Cannot think the Cons can be in the argument.
Wish I was there. At Cheadle just taking generally, it was pretty clear Labour supporters were voting tactically and the Lib dem would win comfortably, suspect conversations in Dunfermline would pick up the state of play pretty quickly.
On paper the SNP should be the challenger, they were second in the seat in 1997 and 2001 before boundary changes.
But the Lib Dems do consistently suprise.
It needs a local opinion poll to start a bandwagon.
42 - Tistoph - I’ve voted lib dem recently (and would have been happier of it didn’t have that social democrat faction) but it’s a big compromise. I voted labour (and was actually elected as such in my student days) in the 80’s but became disillusioned by its controlling nature. As many traditional tories may be despairing at Cameron’s social liberalism it actually makes them look interesting to me for the first time.
On the subject of the lib dem leadership I suppose I should be closer to Campbell but I think he will be an electoral problem, I view Huhne as old SDP with a lot of statist positions so I settled on Hughes as a real social liberal head (tempered by a good sconomic liberal in Cable), his statement that he’d go to jail over ID cards was the clincher.
55 - would you not be worried by his complete non-event of a mayoral campaign?
56 - he’s merely the most human and voter friendly of three very flawed candidates. Frankly I’m not inspired by any of them. Laws would be nice but is a bit of a cold fish and would have similar problems, I don’t know enough about Clegg and Davey, where do they stand politically?
Just wondered by you dismissed Campbell as an “electoral problem” when there is littl evidence of Hughes’ appeal on the same issue.
One piece of evidence of Hughes’ appeal was from the poll recently where voters responded to him more favourably than the other two. Similar to the way that Luntz showed Cameron to be an electoral threat.
As opposed to the actual evidence of the London mayoral election.
57. I think Clegg and Davey are quite close to Laws (someone correct me if I am wrong).
Its the support of people like Clegg, Davey and Laws for Ming which has led me to be a Minger.
I know a lot of people on here would have liked one or more of them to stand, but I think the rest of the party would feel it a little too much of an upset.
This way when Campbell stands down they can have a run at the leadership and probably get it. If they had stood now instead of Campbell I think they may have had some trouble beating Hughes with his activist support.
My fear if Hughes gets elected is that there might be defections, or at least grumbling. I have a hunch the talk about defections did indeed originate from those in the Ming camp who feel Hughes would make several seats vulnerable to the Tories.
But then again my political sense may be as bad as my rugby sense. Italy 10, Ireland 10 at HT, with Italy being the better side IMO. Will see what the next half brings.
What’s this More4poll mentioned on the other thread?
60 - Where I believe that someone like Campbell and Huhne would have done even worse. I disagree with a fair few areas such as abortion but I want a strong liberal party attacking the most illiberal party (as in new labour), I feel that the other two are more likely to let them win another election.
“I think Clegg and Davey are quite close to Laws (someone correct me if I am wrong).”
I think you’re wrong, but i’m no expert. Davey could’ve easily stood without looking like an “upset”(upstart?) - he’s been in the Commons since 1997.
64. But are they close politically? You are right that Davey could have run without looking too newly elected to lead, but I still think he would have had trouble against Hughes.
I did mean upset. As in an upset for the party for the young (some newly elected) MPs to come in and take the leadership. They could only have done so if they had got the same sort of media attention that Cameron had got. Without that I don’t think the armchair voters would have gone for Laws, Clegg or Davey, but I am also not an expert.
65. That should say that they could only have run and won if they had captured the media attention as Cameron had, which I doubt they would have been able to do.
I believe Davey is on the left of the party (but would be enough of an unknown quantity to project himself as a “unifying centrist”). The problem Hughes would always have is that even if elected the media take on his leadership (”LibDems choose the left”) would have been decided before he took position. A dream scenario for the Tories.
67 - the best chance that the lib dems have is to have a poor labour showing, as lib dem MPs have a good record of incumbency many of the lib dem/tory marginals will stay in the lib dem corner anyway.
It’s madness to cede the ground gained to labour when that is where further gains are there to be made. The dream scenario for labour would be for the lib dems to primarily fight the tories and give them a clearer run; something which many lib dem voters would find unforgivable.
It’s a recipe for electoral disaster not to primarily attack labour.
67. I thought Davey was more Orange Book orientated than that; every days a school day!
Agree with you about Hughes. IMO he is a no go area for the leadership; would leave an open goal for Cameron in LD-Con marginals.
Ireland 26; Italy 16. Italy played well and one of the Irish tries wasn’t actually a try, was held up but awarded anyway.
re 59. The poll where Hughes came out well was amongst Lib Dem supporters - not members - and was carried out online by ICM. It was not like the Frank Luntz poll for Newsnight on Cameron.
We’ve got our local party annual dinner tonight with Ed Davey and I’ll get a better sense of member views.
70 - Shouldn’t lib dem members take note of what their voters want? Look what happened to the other parties when they chose purity over power and influence.
69 - Serious question - as a left leaning lib dem would you say that you, and those of a similar persuasion, would be happier to have a Brown government or a Cameron/lib dem coalition?
What do people think about the idea that Ming (if he wins) will resign before the next election (say end of 2008), leaving the way clear for Clegg, Laws, Davey et al?
He would go down as the man who got the party on track. Hughes would be old hat and would probably not run for the leadership again after losing this time. Futhermore the party would get an electorial boost from having a new leader elected within a short period of the next GE.
Somewhat Machiavellian, but could potentially work out quite nicely…
Of course the Labour dream scenario is for the Libdems to concentrate their fire on the Tories. But the LibDems political aim isn’t to sacrifice themselves to make Labour life harder (just because some of their supporters are motivated by anti-Labour sentiments) - they want to do as well as they can for themselves. It may be that there is a slight complication if there looks like the possibility of a hung parliament, but in general they want as many MPs as possible.
And for obvious reasons most MPs are more concerned about maintaining their own seats than trading them for other people to become MPs elsewhere.
70 - haven’t you been chucked out/lapsed your membership yet, Mike?
72. A weakened Brown government which had to rely on us for support would probably be preferable.
(But I think we should avoid a coalition with Labour, we don’t want to be associated with a dying government)
That said some experience in government would do the party some good and give us some more credability, especially given the amount of talent we have to show off. So maybe a coalition with the Tories wouldn’t be that bad.
And none of this quest for self preservation is giving me a good reason to vote lib dem next time. You may well find that voters’ desire to be rid of labour is much stronger than their desire to keep voting lib dem, in which case those seats are going anyway.
73: Why would Ming want the job if he wasn’t going to fight the next election.?
78 - it’s very difficult to work out where you’re coming from. In about 50% of your posts you are taking the attitude of a LibDem member, worried about which candidates will or will not be electable with the wider public etc, the other 50% you are taking the attitude of a floating 2005 LibDem supporter who is demanding the Libdems elect someone you are happy with or you’ll take your vote elsewhere.
Re Cheadle. I don’t agree that it was always looking comfortable for the LibDems … the Tories worked far harder than expected and frightened the LibDem high command into an all out response in the last ten days or so. The Tory leaflets were relentlessly and effectively negative … many were exact copies of the LibDem campaign in Leicester South - same headlines - same style - same stories slightly transposed.
After believing they were losing and pressing the panic buttons with activists aroudn the country, and the Tories over-reaching themselves, the LibDems did recover and ran a good polling day on the back of an all out leaflet blitz. But for some time they genuinely believed they were behind, it certainly was not comfortable. Knocking up on polling day I found the LibDem vote a bit shaky but it turned out in the end. There was a lot of comment on the doorstep that Kennedy was not credible … many other people there heard the same thing.
But as for Dunfermline, the Tories have far too big a credibility gap, I can’t see them beating the tendency to a squeeze in a by-election. The SNP have a chance but I hear that despite the media stunts they are not putting out that much literature, lacking the troops on the ground. Labour are fighting very hard and in this ultra short campaign should hold on, but the toll issue and job losses at Rosyth are not good for them.
I have not gone to the seat yet but shortly will do. I will try to post an update. But the impression I have is that the LibDems are throwing more or less everything at it, and they rarely do that unless they sniff a chance. I would be surprised if they don’t post a big rise in vote share.
80 - my post earlier in the thread about where I come on these political tests might be useful; I have no firm political allegiance, I’m essentially a libertarian and no party reflects that wholly.
My vote is currently resting in lib dem territory but it can easily change. I want to have a good choice next election and for the parties not to be dancing around on a pinhead, this being for the sake of democracy.
I want a lib dem leader who provides a good challenge to the other two parties, this is someone who, whether I vote for them or not, will give a good account of the party. I want a strong third party, if that means they are less palatable to me then so be it (as long as PR is on the way and a party comes along that I feel totally comfortable voting for!)
O/T but just been having a look at the new boundary info on Baxter.
Erm……interesting. I think Staffs Moorlands will be tory again as it reverts to more or less its pre-97 boundaries. And in London, the new Hammersmith tory? I’d have thought they had a better chance in the revived Westminster North.
82 - that’s the problem that the LibDems have, and IMO the real split within the party (not all this Liberal/SDP stuff). On the one hand you have the realists(?) who accept that the LibDems have a very distinctive role to play as a third party, advocating unfashionable causes and radical solutions, but as a result, implicitly accepting that third party status is all they can realistically aspire to (especially within the current political system).
On the other hand you have others who (encouraged by the relative electoral success of recent years) aspire to greater things, with visions of perhaps even challenging for power under this electoral system. For these people it is imperative that the LibDems fight on the ground where elections are won (not where 20-25% of the vote is secured) and that is the proverbial pinhead. It certainly doesn’t include advocating unfashionable causes (where are the votes in that?) or issues where people might grudgingly at a future date admit that you were right (but after they have been incorporated into the other partys’ agendas ergo no votes again).
83 - Baxter isn’t using methods analagous to the usual boundary change adjustment methods, I think. If a constituency has eg. six overwhelmingly Tory wards and one Labour ward, and the Labour ward goes into another constituency then his method will benefit the Tory party in the latter constituency.
73: He would go down as the man who got the party on track.
Surely this was one Mr. C. Kennedy?
Re 81, I visited Cheadle 3 days before the election, that was when I formed my opinion, not all the time.
That is why I would like to visit now
soory, but what the hell happened to Galloway in Egypt?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4680628.stm
88 - Arrested for being a threat to national security. No biggy.
70% Social Liberal, 93% Economic Conservative. According to the famous people button I am nestled comfortably between (I think) Ted Nugent and the Unabomber on the cusp of Capitalist and Libertarian.
Uncannily accurate.
Re. 33, as someone who lives in Staffs. Moorlands, indeed yes. Even with Kidsgrove and the other Labour areas, incorporated by the 95 boundary changes, Labour only hung on last May courtesy of the increase in the UKIP vote delivered by a well-known local businessman and Leek councillor. I estimate a notional Tory majority of 3,300 next time, Anthony Wells estimates one of 1,000.
Apart from the return of Endon and other Tory-leaning areas, the Tories have also benefitted (and will probably continue to benefit) from the sort of social change which has benefitted the Tories in other constituencies (Battersea and Hammersmith), in this case the influx of Macclesfield commuters and building of expensive new houses in Leek.
This (along with angry core Labour voters abstaining in protest at Iraq, and poor targetting) helps explain why Labour slumped to just two district council seats in Leek in 03, and (alongside the defection to the LDs of its retiring County councillor) why Labour lost Leek South in the County elections.
Local Tory district, and County, councillor Neal Podmore has been accepted on to the official list of approved candidates, so Marcus Hayes (candidate in 01 and 05) may not get the chance to be third time lucky (or, given his failed candidacy in Newcastle-under-Lyme in 97, fourth time lucky).
The other factor in the rise of the LD vote (which didn’t help Labour) in Leek South County Council division was the incorporation of Leek West ward, which at the 03 SMDC elections saw a hat trick of Liberal Democrat councillors.
It will be interesting to see whether the LDs can repeat this next year given the controversy which surrounds the ruling coalition of Ratepayers and LDs on SMDC.
Given the backing by the Ratepayers of the UKIP candidate (who, before his parliamentary candidacy, was a Ratepayer councillor), and the way the Ratepayers ditched the Tories to join up with the LDs after the 03 elections (which saw the Tories become the single largest party on SMDC), next year’s District elections could see a venomous contest between the Tories and the Ratepayer/LD coalition. Apart from taking revenge for 03 and 05, the Tories will also hope to become only the second party to form a majority administration on SMDC since the council’s inception in 1973.
Ed Davey is pretty much a lib dem centrist - he’s considered to be resposible for the ‘penny on income tax’ and Local Income Tax policies, but he also contributed to the Orange Book (which is somewhat unfairly portrayed as ‘right wing’.) Personally I’m very disappointed he isn’t standing for leadership.
My personal expectation (and of many activists) is that Ming will win, and then resign after the next election and Nick Clegg will take over. But who knows?
91.”Local Tory district, and County, councillor Neal Podmore has been accepted on to the official list of approved candidates, so Marcus Hayes ”
but will they end up on the Priority List?
83. I think Yardley would stay notional LD with the new boundaries.
86. To some extent, but his drinking was also the catalyst behind their current problems.
Maybe Ming will lead the party into an election (and beyond), my post at 73 was just an up in the air theory.
But it seems to make a degree of sense, and could prove to be quite successful for the party.
There was an interview with Clegg in the Indy not long after the election in which he played his leadership aspirations down a little too much. I know that Clegg is quite close to Ming (isn’t he a spokesman on foreign affairs under ming?), so maybe an understanding has developed?
Andrea, thought I was in a bad mood this morning, so took the OK Cupid politics test again… I came out as more socially permissive than you! It’s been a very strange day…
96. but have they given you always the same description?
97 Yep! Still “exhibiting a very well-developed sense of Right and Wrong and belief in economic fairness.” Although I’ve switched from being a Strong Republican to a Libertarian, which is something of a relief!
96. I’ve redone it too and now I’m 71% and 18% (I was 70% and 20%). probably I switched changed from agree to strongly agree in some questions.
Not sure if I’ve understood question 18.
99 What was Q18? (BTW I’m still beating you on social liberalism 75%. Try again!)
110- It’s “People raising children have a responsibility to live up to society’s standards.”
do they mean they should follow society’s standards or improve society standards? or what else?
Btw, my PM is going crazy: he has just said all pollsters are lefwing (because they give similar results and he couldn’t understand how different polls could give similar results….) and all judges are communist and if they go to Cuba, they would just do sexual turism (!) without learning nothing!
102 - That’s my old chum Silvio!
101 I didn’t really understand that one either… I think I just agreed and moved on!
With regard to the judges in Italy, is it an integral part of sexual turism (?) to learn something new?
98. I have redone it the cupid test and now come out even more socially liberal (78% permissive rather than 75%), still economically liberal 18%!
101. I don’t like your PM! To be honest, I have problems with the Italian government in general at the moment. When do you next have an election and a chance to remove it?
btw. Would just like to highlight England’s slaughter of Wales 47-13 in the 6 nations! Apologies to any Welsh posters…
104 Did you see the match? My Welsh friends actually walked out during the second half!
104 Betfair has Prodi as the front runner for next PM.
103. I think he meant that if they go to Cuba, they should understand communism is bad, but they won’t learn it (because they would be busy to do sexual turism).
Ah, and he said all foreign newspapers send the worst journalists to cover Italy (that’s why they talk bad about him). The Indy journalist was pleased to be put in the “bad” list.
On Dunfermline. The usual bliz of Lib dem leaflets is being used to disguise their dishonesty on a key local issue.Lib Dem Councillors on the local transport authority voted in favour of increasing Bridge tolls. Their candidate is campaigning against the tolls of course.
The SNp claim this message is getting through to the voters and that SNP support is solid but probably not enough to win.They also have the famous memo from Scottish Lib dem MPs where they admit their best hope is a respectable second.
Expect a close fight for second place.
107 Glad we cleared that up! For a moment there I thought he’d really put his foot in it. At least this time he hasn’t compared anyone to an SS guard…
101. I didn’t fully understand the question either, but I think the more you agree with it the more socially conservative you would come out (so I probably either disagreed or strongly disagreed).
105. I did indeed! Welsh played okay in first half, but just got crushed in the second half. They lost position over and over and we ran straight through them (Lawrence Dallaglio literally doing do on one occasion!)
We still had some problems, made a lot of mistakes, but the Welsh couldn’t capitalise, and made plenty of their own. If we can cut down on the mistakes I think we may be in with a chance. Although that depends on how good France look; will see how well they play against Scotland tomorrow.
Pity about the rugby…we just had to many key people out injured. The score hardly reflects that the game turned on one or two “near misses” by the welsh. Good to see mark Jones back after long injury. We will get stronger as suspended and injured players come back.
111 Never mind Mark! I’m sure you’ll score crushing victories over Scotland and Italy. And if you could knock over France at Cardiff, I’m sure England would be very grateful…
104. “I don’t like your PM! To be honest, I have problems with the Italian government in general at the moment. When do you next have an election and a chance to remove it?”
April 9th and 10th to the first question and I hope to the second.
Ah, David Cameron has become a model for National Alliance (they said it yesterday).
111. Cymru Mark, I am trying to see where you get this ‘dishonesty’ tag from. Presumably if you did away with esturine crossing charges then the members of the Regional body would not be forced to put them up all the time?
113. Perhaps they know something about Cameron’s intentions here in the UK that we don’t!
I read somewhere that Thatcher is a model for a lot of the eastern European right wing parties. No-one wants to model themselves on Blair as far as I know, or Charles Kennedy for that matter!
BTW It looks like Egypt have decided to let Galloway in after all. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4680628.stm
115 Doesn’t Angela Merkel claim to be Germany’s Thatcher?
116 “However, his office have still been unable to contact him to confirm his situation, he added.”
Slightly worrying. They haven’t done anything to him have they?!
118 What are you hoping for Tistoph?
118. Anna, you don’t think I would wish any harm on the honourable gentleman?!
I think he is perfectly capable of doing that to himself!
Just commenting on how it might be slightly worrying how he was last seen talking to officials just before boarding a plane back the the UK.
117. Maybe, but I don’t think she is anywhere near forceful enough.
120. sorry, meant to say “just before he was meant to board a plane back to the UK, but then didn’t and hasn’t been seen since.”
Not all councillors voted for the charges. it only got through on the votes of Lib dem councillors….at least that is my understanding. i have posted the same comment on numerous lib dem sites and no one has challenged it. i thought Willie was campaigning against the increased charges rather than in favour of abolition. Campaigning for abolition would be a clever campaign trick (the sort of stunt I would have pulled when a Lib dem campaigner!!) to get them off the hook.
Labour in scotland and wales are so awful that any defeat for them is welcome. the problem in scotland and possibly wales is that Lib dem victories may lead to Labour government by the back door.
Cameron attacks chocolate sellers!! Don’t you just love the impartial Beeb. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4580778.stm
117 - Frau Merkel actively discourages such comparisons. The political composition of her government makes it rather difficult for her to carry out the sort of reforms that would confirm the sort of similarities (and which Germany desperately needs IMO), but she has gotten off to a remarkably good start in spite of this. She apparently has the highest approval ratings for any Chancellor since the early days of Helmut Kohl’s government in the 80’s.
Re. 94, that’s an interesting question. If the Cameroonians thought David Davis was ‘an oik’, I don’t think they’d have much time for Hayes, with his strong Worcestershire accent, his baiting of immigrants, and his general hackishness. Plus, of course, the Cameroons (Gove and Osborne in particular) are very pro-Iraq War, whereas Hayes was strongly against (although, set against, he’s also strongly against ID cards). Much depends on how strongly such Cameroon prejudices are reflected in the formation of the A-List. Hayes may yet wise up to such mores and go to his interview wearing a black t-shirt, Converse trainers, drinking an Innocent Smoothie, wearing an i-pod, and naming the Queen Is Dead as his favourite Smiths album.
Podmore, on the other hand, may have less experience of (losing) parliamentary elections than Hayes, but has more experience of winning local government elections:
Podmore
Wins a district council seat (even if only by twelve votes) in 03. Uses it as a springboard to win (even if with considerable assistance from gentrification and the LDs) to win a County Council seat in 05.
Hayes
Wins a seat in Holmes Chapel on Congleton BC in 98. Loses it just one year later in 99, despite the Tories doing better on Congleton BC (and across the country) than in 98. His loss is even more humiliating when, given that he was Leader of the Conservative Group on Congleton BC, he becomes therein an early victim of an LD ‘decapitation strategy’.
Podmore is also much younger than Hayes, which may appeal to the Cameroons.
Melanie Phillips may not be popular with everyone on this forum, but I’d say she’s spot on here
http://www.melaniephillips.com/diary/archives/001576.html
The willingness of the police to allow what looks like incitement to murder should be of enormous concern.
123. I believe the BBC is a blessed thing and long may it continue!
I have friends in America who use it for their daily world news because of how much more impartial it is than the right wing trash of most US news channels (especially those owned by Murdoch!).
Just out of interest; do you agree with Cameron on that one?
’set against that’ I meant.
127 Until there is a way for me to take caffine safely intraveneously, I’m going to have to stick to chocolate and Diet Coke… I have no problem with any shop drawing chocolate bars to my attention and am likely to reward them for doing so by buying them!
On the issue of the Beeb’s impartiality. I just thought the headline was funny. You know if it was the government then it would have been “Minister in favour of healthy eating” or something equally inocuous.
6 - Stuart Randall has not resigned from the party, he has resigned from the candidates list, and won’t be seeking re-election.
Re. 129, if a Minister had denounced WH Smith in this way, I suspect the Tories would have attacked it as yet another example of nanny-statism.
I’ve always thought the bias at the BBC isn’t so much party political as a general Guardian/Indy reader’s liberal left view of the world, in which Eurosceptics are ‘mad’ (one BBC worker’s description of Lord Pearson of Rannoch, just because he dared suggest that the UK withdraw from the EU), that there are too many people in prison (as with Niall Dickson’s memorable topsy-turvy logic when he sneered that the prison population had increased ‘at a time when crime is falling’), and that Israel is usually (if not always) in the wrong.
Re. 126, I agree.
126. Thanks for the link. I agree with her on some of the main jist of her argument (I am agreeing with Melanie Phillips! I think I need a lie down, must be ill!). But her rhetoric is highly unhelpful.
Also she says at several points that this is a war by Islam against us, but then goes on to say this is also a war against moderate Muslims.
I think it would be more accurate to say this was incitement being stirred up by radical elements within Islam. I am quite sure there are lots of Muslims all over the world who, while maybe offended by the cartoons, are horrified by the actions of these fundamentalists. These groups should learn to be more vocal IMO, although I can understand they may fear doing so for fear of recriminations.
Also Sean, if the police had tried to arrest some of those waving banners in these protests things would have gotten very ugly, very quickly. As (I think) Sara said on the read yesterday (or day before) best to let them protest, get some photos of them and then keep an eye on them.
131 Succinctly put!
132. “Thread” not “read”. Really must work on my spelling!
Andrea @ 94
Knowing the ward going into Yardley very, very well (as I’m standing in it this year), I think that it would be very, very close. It’s a very solid LibDem ward at the local turnout level, but won by Labour on a general election turnout. However, only about 70% of the ward isn’t in Yardley at the moment (this is the killer factor which may make a number of predictions incorrect in Brum, where the ward size is 18-20,000.)
126 Sean Fear, Melanie Philips is a hypocritical witch, clearly manufactured in a strange underground factory where enemies of judaism create automatons who spout their one-sided crud everywhere while systematically ignoring atrocities committed daily by their mates.
The issue of freedom of speech is, though, very real. It actually places the rabid religious right (mostly notionally christian and jewish) in the same ‘box’ as the ‘fundamentalist’ islamists - though they would prefer this not to be drawn to general attention.
The crucial thing is that an insult is not an incitement to hatred or to violence unless the recipient is predisposed to such reactions - ie they believe that they have a ‘right’ religiously-inspired or otherwise, to take a retributive or ‘corrective’ action when they feel sufficiently insulted by someone else’s action. If governments allow this to any serious degree then we are at the end of a slipery slope of effective anarchy leading possibly to much worse.
132- Do you think if the placards were being waved by “white” Europeans with racist remarks aimed at Jewish, Sikh or in fact Muslim people for whatever reason our spineless police would have done something?
I think so, and I speak as a Muslim by the way. It’s is a disgrace, please tell me in what other country people can come out on to the street and threaten whole nations and get away with it?
I suppose they will say its “freedom of speech” but if that’s the argument they would use they would have no reason to be on the street waiving the placards in the first place!
Our Political Correct leaders have gone mad or just have no balls, these people say they are doing it on behalf of all Muslims, BULLSHIT, I and my family would spit in their faces. They, like Abu Hamsa and those who say they are Muslims are a cancer in our religion, and the sooner they are dealt with vigorously the better.
If they hate the freedoms they now have in the west I say Pi** off back to what ever country you came from. I came to this country when I was 5 years old and I owe it everything. How dare these people abuse the country that has given them so much?
We need more “normal” and yes I use that word specifically to come out and condemn these idiots on the streets, otherwise the racial tolerance this country has had for so long will quickly disappear.
136 - “The crucial thing is that an insult is not an incitement to hatred or to violence unless the recipient is predisposed to such reactions”
I would suggest you read the placards and watch the news about the troubles in Damascus. You think these people are just doing it as an insult, wake up and smell the coffee Zebidee.
This is why many of my family no longer can live in the Middle East; the mind set of the fundamentalist is 200 years behind the rest of the world. If you let them draw you in you just have to look at Afghanistan, once a modern fairly prosperous place, now living the middle ages again, no thanks, thats the exact reason we left all those years ago.
131. You are probably right about the BBC. I agree with most of what it says and rarely have any issues with it; which kinda backs up the argument that it has a liberal/left wing bias.
But obviously as I agree with most of what is says I don’t have the any problem with its bias and would prefer it not to change.
137. If they had been white people, calling the destruction of the state of Qatar (random Middle-eastern Islamic country, rather like Denmark is a random Western Christian one), and calling on people to attack Arabs and Muslims (in the same way that this group were calling on people to attack Westerners and Christians) then I hope the police would have done exactly the same thing as they did this time.
“If they hate the freedoms they now have in the west I say Pi** off back to what ever country you came from.”
These people can’t pi** off anywhere! Most are second or third generation Muslims living in sh!te-hole urban areas. These are citizens of the UK; and so we have to deal with the reasons why they think what they think, we can’t just arrest them and expect the problem to go away. Its more complicated than that.
Can I just ask you if you have written to the Muslim Council of Great Britain about this issue and your views on it?
I don’t think zebidee was disagreeing with you, Big Mak.
This is the prediction which I made about a week ago (I had not seen any information at that time about betting or opinion polls):
Lab 9800
SNP 8100
LD 4400
C 3500
SSP 410
AFBTP 350
Sc Chr P 290
UKIP 140
CG 50
which would be c. 11% swing from Lab to SNP and c.3% from LD to C.
139 - Your first point to my 139 post is frankly wishful on your part. As you well know if that had have happened the police would have been on them with minutes. Not only that but these so called “Muslims” would have been on the street threatening them. Can you really imagine a Jewish or Neo-Nazi guy walking down the street with “Bomb Saudi Arabia” and getting away with it, if you can we must be living in a parallel universe.
Your second point to my 138 post is a disgraceful apology for these people. Yes like my kids they are second/third generation, which makes the whole situation even more perplexing. Also just because you may (you have no proof that these people are not in fact well educated middle class) be poor and from a “shit hole” area is no excuse.
Next time a teenager mugs or assaults you or someone you know please remember your words. I would love to see how you would react if they use that excuse to justify their actions.
As for the MC of GB, please!! Who voted for them and who gave them the authority to represent all Muslims in this country?? They are mostly Asian Muslims; I am from the Middle East and trust me there are huge differences on what our religion means to us.
They are a bunch of self appointed no bodies, and no Arab Muslim takes them seriously. I will ask you this when was the last time you saw a Syrian, Jordanian, and Lebanese…. or Arab member of this council, never.
138 & 140 - yes, I apologise should have read the whole post, less haste and all that… but my point still stands(but no against Zebidee)
Here’s a link on the rise in postal votes in Dunfermline and West Fife.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2781359.stm
I would guess the parties with the established local governemnt base in the seat (i.e. Labour and Lib Dems) would be best placed to organise the postal vote.
enjoyed a nice meal in Liverpool last night with about 30 other LibDems, with the guest being Simon Hughes. Format is eat; speech; eat; q & a; desert; more q & a.
Simon performed well, but the usual problems remained.
Support for Ming confirmed!
Next dinner at the start of April: speaker Nick Clegg.
Who offends Islam more? A foreigner who endeavours to draw the prophet as described by his followers in the world, or a Muslim armed with an explosive belt who commits suicide in a wedding party in Amman or anywhere else?
Editorial in Shihan newspaper, Jordan, which published the cartoons. The editor was later sacked.
Exactly, lets see all these people in the street prtesting about something meaningful and not some cartoons.Being a bunch of mindless and simplestic bigots I doubt that such a thought had crossed their tiny minds.
146 - I think he’s been arrested
147 - That just about sums it up!
142. Its not about “a Jewish or Neo-Nazi guy walking down the street” its about talking about several hundred! You don’t try to arrest several hundred people on a march unless you are willing to have a fight on your hands. Imagine what would have happened; there would have been a running street battle, several police (and loads of marcbers) would have been injured. The press would have had a field day about how it was taking away peoples right to protest.
“As for the MC of GB, please!! Who voted for them and who gave them the authority to represent all Muslims in this country??”
I am very sorry, but the MC of BC does represent you, whether you like it or not. So if you have a problem with this then you should take action to change this. It won’t change by itself.
And if you don’t want to challenge them, how about writing to a newspaper to make it known that you, as a Muslim, think it disgraceful that other Muslims are acting in this way!
Unless you voice your views then