By-election betting to continue until the declaration
February 9th, 2006-
Labour 0.07/1 to hold the seat in Gordon’s back yard
If there is going to be a shock in today’s by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife then the first indications 
should be seen on the betting exchange markets.
For if there is just a sniff that something might be happening around the campaign HQs of the main parties then information will seep out and punters will try to cash in.
All unmatched betting exchange bets are cancelled at 7am so what appears to be a completely new market will open. If this follows the normal pattern then the Labour price will tighten even beyond the current 0.07/1 in the first hour or so.
The critical time to watch is late afternoon when the campaign heads will start to get an overall feel of whether they have got their votes out and how well the other parties are doing. So if there is betting movement away from Labour after 5.30 pm then the result might be interesting.
At the General Election there was a comfortable Labour win here with the Lib Dems in second place. The votes split LAB 47.4: LD 20.1: SNP 18.9: CON 10.3. Given the national troubles the Lib Dems were having this might have been an opportunity for the SNP to move into second place.
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All the indications are that the Lib Dems have managed to beat off the SNP threat and have emerged as the challenger.
If there is to be a shock Ming Campbell’s party needs to eat into the 28% of the vote that the SNP and Tories chalked up last time between them and for Labour to have problems getting its vote out. But Labour’s General Election margin of 27% looks huge. Even though the Lib Dems have thrown everything into this fight it is hard to predict anything other than a Labour victory by a much reduced majority with a low turnout.
There’s an added interest in today’s vote because the next door constituency is Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, the seat of Gordon Brown - and it is also near to North East Fife, the constituency of Ming Campbell, currently 0.82/1 favourite for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats.
Watch the by election betting from about 6pm.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
The Scotsman
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=203542006
Surely the continuing ‘weak favourite’ status of Menzies is incorrect. The only basis for this is a YouGove published before Charles Kennedy resigned. Within a week Menzies had been utterly humiliated in the national media, and derided as a second-rank politician, following his poor PMQ performance.
Meanwhile Cameron-like, Huhne has emerged as the strong favourite in nearly all polls conducted over the last month - Times poll, online polls, etc. It does seem the market is badly mis-pricing Menzies because of out-of-date YouGov polling. This would imply there is an immediate opportunity to make money.
Also note that the new YouGov poll that has been formally replied to by Kelner. It is the franked admission I could ever have imagined - MENZIES IS NOT IN THE LEAD. Re-read it if you have any doubts. Kelner is saying, our suggested figures are WRONG. Why? We show Menzies still in the lead, whereas as the true figures must be showing someone else leading, and leading convincingly. Who could it be? The answer has to by Huhne rather than Hughes.
You’ve hit the nail on the head. There is definitely something suspicious going on. For example in yesterdays statement by webpoll2, he refused to provide the headline figures - who leads on first preferences, and instead revealed only second preference transfers. These are heavily biased towards Menzies implying that webpoll2 is a Menzies backer. The refusal to publish the first preference figures implies MENZIES IS CLEARLY BEHIND ON FIRST PREFERENCES. We do not however know who is leading on first preferences. Is it Huhne or Hughes?
Chris Huhne has clearly mastered the dark art of spin if nothing else.
2)/Phil regarding - “Also note that the new YouGov poll that has been formally replied to by Kelner. It is the franked admission I could ever have imagined - MENZIES IS NOT IN THE LEAD. Re-read it if you have any doubts.”
Where is this written please? can you provide a link?
2/Phil - If what you are saying is ;
Can you help others reach that conclusion?
It sounds to me as thought you are reading Kellner’s statement the way YOU want it to read. If you can not back up your statement there you are surely not a credible poster.
Sorry that should have read.. 2/Phil - If what you are saying is ;
“Kellner said the first preference numbers were incorrect, which means the order is definitely different and further Huhne is the likely leader”
Can you help others reach that conclusion?
It sounds to me as thought you are reading Kellner’s statement the way YOU want it to read. If you can not back up your rationale that the situation is “CLEAR” as you say, then you are surely not a credible poster.
Kelner has bluntly distanced both himself and YouGov from speculative figures that showed Menzies in the lead. There could be no more emphatic indication that Menzies is not in the lead, in this recent private YouGov poll. Kelner knows there would have been immense damage done to YouGov, if Menzies is not ahead in the result, and everyone thought YouGov was saying Menzies was ahead in the private poll. So he corrected this. I would only have acted as he had done, if MENZIES IS NOT IN THE LEAD.
I would suggest the overwhelming majority of impartial and objective readers would draw a similar conclusion.
Messages 2 and 3 are crap. They tell you no such thing. I suspect you are both Mr Macauley anyway. Your motives seem too similar and as most on here will know Mr Macauley has been trying to spread rumours about MC all week. Fortunately most people ignore him because he’s so transparent
Messages 2 and 3 are garbage. They tell you no such thing. I suspect you are both Mr Macauley anyway. Your motives seem too similar and as most on here will know Mr Macauley has been trying to spread rumours about MC all week. Fortunately most people ignore him because he’s so transparent
Our household has voted 2 first pref for Huhne and 1 for Hughes. Ming third for all three
Re Webpoll2. I asked Peter Kellner about him yesterday and have had no response. In the absence of any confirmation we must assume that this is an elaborate hoax.
Roger those are unfair comments. Rather than face the issue, its being evaded. Rather than seeking to establish the truth you run away from the discussion. Please can we have more maturity on this forum. Personal abuse has no place here.
12. Mike. Peter Kellner said he would make no further comment. If he had commented on Webpolls’s post he would have been dragged in still further. I don’t blame him not answering and I don’t believe his silence tells us anything.
If you are using this site to prote yor favoured candidate or because you have money on the contest I am sure there are more subtle ways to achieve your objective than trying to pass on rumours “you’ve heard” about Ming Campbell being a racist etc etc.
You are a creepy character and I doubt you heard it here first!
Do you believe Menzies Campbell is an anti-English racist? It’s not been raised for a couple of days. I have no strong view on the matter.
13 - You are in a tiny minority in reading Kellner’s denial that the “leak” was accurate as a confirmation that the order of the candidates implied by the “leaked” numbers was wrong. Kellner’s denial was exactly what it appeared - he had been asked to do a private poll, which he did, and was by his client to deny that the “leaked” figures were accurate, which he did. Your version at 2/3 is bizarre to be honest.
Dundee Coureir today.
Labour think SNP second? Are they are right or is it scaremongering?
09 February 2006 Latest News
News Headlines
By-election too close to call on D-Day
By-election too close to call on D-Day
Bridging the election gap—Nicol Stephen and Willie Rennie discussing their by-election chances at the top of the Forth Rail Bridge yesterday.
By Lars Niven
THE LIB Dems claimed last night they were neck and neck with Labour in the race for the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election.
Nicol Stephen, the party’s Scottish leader, urged supporters to turn out today as “every vote will count.”
The party’s chief executive Lord Rennard said the Liberals were within sight of the 14% swing needed to seize the Westminster seat from Labour.
It wasn’t the Lib Dems who were concentrating Labour minds yesterday, but the SNP.
Labour candidate Catherine Stihler urged supporters not to take anything for granted and to turn out and vote today—or they could wake up to a Scottish National Party MP.
SNP leader Alex Salmond was in buoyant mood and predicted a huge swing to the SNP.
Meanwhile, Tory candidate Carrie Ruxton said her party offered a real choice to the voters.
Nine candidates will stand in the by-election, where Labour are defending a majority of more than 11,500.
It was brought about by the death of Rachel Squire (51) on January 5 after a long battle against illness.
Toll levels on the Forth road bridge, as well as its long-term future, have loomed large in the campaign.
And the day after Labour launched its campaign, printer firm Lexmark announced it was to close its factory in the constituency with the loss of 700 jobs.
Lord Rennard claimed voters had felt let down and taken for granted by Labour. “Liberal Democrats now sense the real prospect of a major upset in this by-election,” he said.
He added, “The first parliamentary by-election since David Cameron became Conservative party leader will highlight how irrelevant the Conservatives have become in many parts of Britain.”
Mr Stephen joined Willie Rennie, the party’s candidate, on a walkabout in Dunfermline High Street yesterday. Sir Menzies Campbell, acting leader of the Liberal Democrats, later joined their last-minute push.
Mr Rennie added, “The clear message that I am getting on the doorsteps is that local people feel let down by Labour and that it is time for a change.”
Mrs Stihler warned supporters not to take anything for granted and to turn out and vote today.
If they don’t, she said, they could wake up to an SNP MP in the shape of Nationalist candidate Douglas Chapman tomorrow morning.
The surprising admission came yesterday as the party geared up for the final day’s campaigning.
“Some Labour supporters may feel there is little at stake in this by-election,” she said. “With respect, there is a lot at stake.”
She argued that Labour had proved its commitment to the area by bringing in 10,000 jobs since 1997 and said only it could deliver 10,000 more.
“The success of Rosyth Dockyard shows what can be done,” she added.
Mr Salmond predicted a huge swing to the SNP. He joined Mr Chapman as he prepared for the final day’s campaigning.
“It’s clear from all the available evidence that there will be a huge swing to the SNP at the polls,” Mr Salmond said.
Mr Salmond continued, “Our campaign has been well organised and well focused, and Douglas Chapman is a tremendous candidate who will do a top class job of representing the people of this area as their Member of Parliament.
“Only Douglas Chapman can beat Labour and ensure real change for people here.”
Mr Chapman added, “The mood amongst local people is clear—we want change in our communities.
“People here want to put some pride back into their town, which has been let down badly under Labour leadership for decades.
“People in Fife are also still concerned about the Labour and Lib Dem proposal to increase the Forth road bridge tolls, and have not been fooled by Labour’s attempts to pull the wool over their eyes.”
Tory candidate Carrie Ruxton said her party offered a real choice to the voters. “I have talked about the issues that matter to the people—the bridge, Queen Margaret Hospital, Dunfermline town centre and the economy of Fife.”
“I am proud of the positive campaign I have led in this by-election. This is an exciting time to be a Conservative candidate as a new chapter opens in politics.
“The Conservatives offer a real choice to the voters on Thursday and I know many of them believe it is time
18 - So Labour say the SNP are breathing down their necks. Surely final confirmation that the Lib Dems are breathing down Labour’s necks.
14 - no, Peter Kellner said he wouldn’t comment on any further made up figures. Webpoll2 claimed that the figures he was releasing were authorised by Peter Kellner and the client, and that Peter Kellner would vouch (not for the figures) but for his (Webpoll2’s) authenticity.
In the absence of any such vouching, we should assume Webpoll2 is a fraud. Also, why post on the site - surely if the client wanted those figures released it would have been more sensible for Peter Kellner just to email them to Mike, and they would be on YouGov’s website by now.
There will be plenty of egg on plenty of faces if the Lib Dems come in 3rd! Alex Salmond did sound confident on newsnight the other day that they were definately going to win but they always say that don’t they?
Pip. You might be right. Unfortunately Yougov now have such a reputation in this kind of contest that it’s like being told the result ahead of time! Very dangerous for bookies I would have thought?
It’s Thursday, and once again it’s…ramp ramp ramp ramp ramp
One thing amazes me. This is the lack of bullishness amongst Menzies supporters. They seem to have vanished. I suspect the bitter critics are those that backed Menzies with a a lot of money, and are now finding it hard to get their money back. That’s not my fault!
Hey Phil why don’t you chat it over with your alter ego Will. It’ll save your typing finger.
22/23 - And now Stewart Lewis is ramping himself! You would have thought he would have chosen a less obvious pseudonym than “Phil Stewart” but there you are!
I’m a Ming supporter and pretty bullish by the way - he is not home and dry, frontrunning is not easy (as David Davis and many others over time have shown) but he is justifying the favourite tag in my personal view. Just talking to fellow members, Hughes excited early interest but faded. Huhne’s stock has risen and he will play a major role in years to come, but it’s not been enough to take him into the lead - even in my area where the MP is backing him. Campbell has performed well and shown that he has things to say on domestic issues and internal party matters as well as being statesmanlike on the foreign affairs stuff.
23 - Depends when they backed him of course. If they had a few quid when Hughes briefly climbed above him as favourite, they will be pretty satisfied - not exactly Mike’s 200-1 on Huhne but a fairly reliable, fairly tidy profit beckons.
23 - “One thing amazes me. This is the lack of bullishness amongst Menzies supporters. They seem to have vanished.”
Eh! Clearly not been reading my and many other Menzies supporters posts…I’m looking forward to an excellent pay day when Ming wins.
By-election today. My reports are that we are going to do very well. Having been here many times before, I think this mans a good second. Winning would be an extraordianry result because of the huge Labour lead. But you never know. Certainly if we do not come a good second I shall be very surprised, and have a quite word with my sources…..
Todays indie:
Mr Hughes’s team also released evidence to support his claim that Mr Huhne is out of the race. The poll showed that among people who voted Liberal Democrat at the last election, 31 per cent support Sir Menzies against 21 per cent for Mr Hughes and six per cent for Mr Huhne.
20. I disagree. Although I am beginning to have my doubts about webpoll2 after his post yesterday @395, which was a bit odd, I don’t see how Kellner’s silence proves anything.
With such specific figures it would have been easy for Kellner to come out and deny that webpoll2 has anything to do with the poll. His silence suggests either that the figures are wrong and he really doesn’t care about them (too busy doing his job etc.), or that they are real and he is having a panic trying to find out who webpoll2 is, and whether he now has to publish the full data set.
23. Perhaps you have your money elsewhere Phil, and are finding Ming’s resilience a tad annoying?
Are there any Lib Dems out there prepared to say what the result would have to be tonight for them to think it disappointing?
Will Lib Dem members give Campbell the credit/punish Campbell for tonights result? (delete as appropriate).
The ramping will continue until we get more concrete information. Mainly because it seems to succeed in moving prices. Huhne’s price has continued to shorten since yesterday morning although the only thing that’s changed is that the leaked polling results, favourable to him, have been given a kicking by YouGov. It seems Ming also did well yesterday in PMQs although I agree that this will have a very limited impact. This seems to underline the point made here previously that the current betfair prices are not, in this contest, informed by much more than speculation and rumour.
SAC the indie poll is irrelevant. It is not about Lib Dem members voting for the leadership, but ordinary members of the public relying on name recognition - they are not electing the leader of the Lib Dems! Amongst those that are aware of the three candidates (i.e. members!), Huhne has a massive lead, with Menzies doing very badly. E.g. yesterdays Times poll.
29 - I will be diappointed if we did not come 2nd which is pretty amazing as only 3 or so weeks ago I expected the SNP to have no problem overtaking us and of course 2 or 3 MP’s to have defected to the Conservatives if you believed Rik W and other Conservatives .
28 Tistoph. Webpoll claimed that he was Peter Kellner’s customer and that PK would vouch for him. But he hasn’t.
Don’t expect PK to comment further. He said he wouldn’t.
29 - Third and/or a decrease in vote share would be disappointing. Less than a 5% increase would be a shade disappointing although I would have settled for it ten days ago.
I do not think the result will influence the leadership election too much unless it is a terribly disappointing result or a huge triumph. The fact it is on Ming’s doorstep is little more than a curiosity really. Interestingly, though, the Ming campaign sent out an email last night associating him closely with the campaign and encouraging people to get involved in the final push, although I do not know whether the others have done as I am not on their lists - quite possibly something similar.
29. Coming third would be bad for Ming and weaken his chances of winning the leadership contest. I expect that Hughes would benefit, as he would be seen as safer than Huhne, though can’t be sure.
A very bad vote for us would restart all the talkings about the party being sequeezed at the next GE and the media would probably go looking for some more stories.
That said I don’t think it will happen.
27. FLASH NEWS! STEWART LEWIS AHEAD IN LIBDEM LEADERSHIP CONTEST
42% of people who voted LD at the last GE said they would vote for Stewart Lewis in the leadership contest!
Mr Lewis is said to be delighted by the news and says his campaign is back on track, after period one could have been excused for forgetting he was running.
Mr Lewis had been an outright Minger; however he decided to run in the contest after deciding he wasn’t a Minger after all, but instead was more of an “individual” character.
30. For ’speculation and rumour’ you might substitute ‘distortion and manipulation’
31 - Phil. Yesterdays Times poll was amongst only around 170 members at one hustings in Cardiff!
Furthermore: “Amongst those that are aware of the three candidates (i.e. members!), Huhne has a massive lead, with Menzies doing very badly”. Absurd statement that bears no relation to the facts ‘out there’ at all. Just silly…..
Spin, spin, spin.
Which is the most outrageous? Simon Hughes desperately putting forward irrleevent ‘general public’ figures to try to bolster campaign in a party contest or Labour pumping up the SNP to stop the public swinging behind the Lib Dem in Dunfermeline?
The links to the Dunfermline betting gave me the following sentence: “This market has expired or no longer exists”
is it just me?
sky have just reported the poll, commissioned by that former Tory MEP who is now a Lib. It does show Huhne ahead of Ming & Hughes last (on 27%). presume it’s the yougov poll.
It is a YouGov poll:
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=140
40, Former tory now lib MEP must be Bill Newton Dunn
So there we are. Right all along. Perhaps Chris Huhne had better fly to Dunfermeline (if he’s not there already)?
Huhne 38, Campbell 34, Hughes 27; Huhne favourite now?
John Stevens Andrea - he’s a former Tory MEP who joined the Lib Dems after he had ceased to be a MEP (by way of the Pro-Euro Conservative party)
RE : SKY POLL. So thank you. CAN ALL OF THOSE WHO CRITICISED MY POSTING AT 2 ABOVE, IN SUCH A HARSH MANNER PLEASE APOLOGISE NOW!
41. Very interesting.
I didn’t think that Huhne would get the media attention to be ahead in the polls.
One thing though; these are more likely to be more active members, rather than armchair ones. Its probably more likely that the armchair members will vote for Ming.
Still well done Huhne for polling so well (and thank the heavens that Hughes is nowhere!).
It should be a close contest; if Huhne performs well at the hustings and on QT then there is no reason why he shouldn’t win.
45. Anthony. Thanks, I thought they were talking about a sitting MEP.
Fascinating. So Huhne wins. Huhne causes huge bad feeling with Ming Hughes and most of the Parliamentary party due to reneging. At the same time he promises taxes so high Simon Hughes is condemning them. Laws et al to defect? Squabbling in Parl. party a certainty. As a Tory this delights me. I didn’t have much to fear from any of them, but Whune!
Lib Dems, you really do have a natural home in the Tories if you believe in free markets and low tax and the environment.
It’s up on the YouGov website
47. Agreed. Good reult for Chris Huhne. Ming still to win on second preference mind. Be interesting to see who picks up most bounce from the by-election.
John Stevens is a supporter of Huhne.
“freedom of speech” gets the early OTT speculation based on one poll award for today.
And Huhne is a scrap the pound fanatic! Bring him on!
47. Hughes isn’t nowhere! Assuming a normal margin of error he could only be 5 or 6% behind the lead with 16% undecided.
Interesting. Hughes second preferences go mainly to Campbell here. This contrasts with the “leaked” figures.
The vote might go something like this - or it might prove to be the case that members who use there computers a lot split differently from those who take the advice of their MP.
If Hughes’s 2nd prefs are applied, Huhne has 40%, Ming 38% so Huhne’s still not home and dry, but the writing’s on the wall.
Newton-Dunn is a sitting MEP
Tistoph at 47 - Huhne claims to be tax-neutral. He wants more so-called environmental taxes but less on income tax. That may not play as badly as you hope.
Ironically, it gives Huhne a lot in common with the flat-tax brigade although their motives are different.
In any case, Huhne may not win. QT is surely crucial, and there is also Dunfermline.
56: Not so. According to the poll it breaks down after second preferences to: “Once Simon Hughes is eliminated his support splits very slightly in favour of Ming Campbell - Campbell 39% to Huhne’s 36%”.
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=140
47 It isn’t Ming to win on second preferences; Hughes second preferences split more to Ming but not enough for him to win (see data on yougov website).
54 Russell Hughes isn’t nowhere in first preferences but he cannot win because he is so far behind in second preferences from either Huhne or Campbell.
Huhne is clearly ahead and has all the momentum with him, and should in my view be strong favourite to win, with the caveats that:
i) web Lib Dems might be different from other LD members, esp. given the small sample size
ii) LDs who haven’t voted yet may shy away from Huhne when they think over the risks of someone with so little experience
iii) a disaster on QT, some other scandal, or any of the crazy things that make a week a long time in politics.
I would think Huhne should be about 1/3; Campbell 3/1; Hughes 500/1.
59 see the yougov website data.
As soon as the leader is chosen there will be a Lib Dem bounce whether it’s Hulhne or Campbell. Even this poll makes the Lib Dems look like a solid outfit again. As for apologizing to you Phil/Will I’m afraid not. I have money on Hulne but I don’t think it’s desirable to try to character assasinate Ming in order to make it
53. So is John Stevens, whom I have met. A swivel-eyed look who believes the UK can take over the EU and turn it into a superpower.
My advice is pile your money on Ming - the poll is rubbish.
Huhne will probably come third.
60 - just for anyone stuck behind a firewall at work, the current prices available to back on Betfair are:
Campbell: 1.92
Huhne: 2.1
Hughes: 17.5
59 SAC, look at the YouGov website. The split you are referring to is of Hughes 2nd prefs. Apply those and you end up with the figures I put on 56 above.
54 - Actually, the margin of error will be 4-5% due to small sample size. But what does for Hughes is the second preference figures where he is done for regardless of whether he sneaks into second or even first.
I still have serious doubts over whether Lib Dem members who are YouGov registered are representative of members generally - the old armchair debate - but there is no doubt the Huhne camp will be delighted with this poll. If there is an over reaction in betting, I may get some money onto Campbell though.
46 - Lucky guess! And could you stick to one or two names - I am still reeling from the wELshdRagOn fiasco.
66. Tm Z. Ok. Thanks
hmm, id be tempted to take some money on campbell if it stretches out any further. My gut instinct is that Hughes backers will split more to Campbell then Huhne, and if the LDs do well in dunfermline i think people would be willing to keep with a safe pair of hands such as Campbell.
54. Sorry I think he is; unless the undecided voters split only to him and one of the other two then he will not get through.
He might be expected to pick up more than Huhne due to name recognition, but he needs to pick up more undecided voters than Campbell to make it through the first count (if we assume Campbell is behind Huhne as this poll shows), and I doubt that will happen.
i of course mean put some money on campbell, im not offering odds
I have a feeling Dan might be right. The Guardian was pretty dismissive of Hulhne’s chances and a poll of 400 is quite different from the thousands Yougov normally use. Possibly less than 100 would have gone for Hulhne but I’m no psephologist so maybe that’s enough?
I would have thought undecideds are most likely to go for Huhne. He is new, they may like him, but they are just not sure yet.
60 - I agree with your analysis. Huhne is probably now ahead but in a tight contest it could still change.
I don’t doubt the veracity of this poll at all, but one does have to ask how Yougov got hold of a list of Liberal Democrat members? I would have thought you would have to have done a huge sample to narrow it down to a members only poll.
If John Stevens (or the Huhne camp) have let Yougov have a list of Lib Dem members then there are huge data protection implications here. If the Huhne camp gave Yougov the data they have collected during the course of the campaign (e-mail addresses etc) then surely the sample is skewed?
Or have I got this wrong
Unless I’m mistaken this poll is not the disputed one which was debated so much yesterday.
This was the second poll some of us very recently filled in. As I said on this site then, I was sure it was from the Huhne camp because the questions were phrased in a subtly leading way (nothing wrong with that, btw. I’m a Huhne fan).
Eg, Ming and Simon were both described as professional lawyers; Chris as a journalist and businessman - this was the preface to the question, who do you think will best be able to understand the issues facing Britain today?
I’m surprised YouGov is content to allow leading questions to be asked in this kind of survey. They are not empirical questions, and therefore answers may be skewed. This is clearly a good poll result for Chris. But I would treat it with some caution.
(We should also remember that YouGov has no track record with Lib Dem membership polling - how could it? - though this poll may prove to be as uncannily accurate as their polls for the Tory leadership etc. But it might just not.)
What I have been reading from LibDems here makes me think that defections don’t seem far fetched if Huhne wins. The internal contradictions in the LibDems will be hard to paper over inside the parliamentary party. No wonder the membership would like Charlie back. He held it together but the stress led him to seek relief?
The use of dodgy bar charts and ‘winning here’ spinning brings to mind of the biblical injunction about living by the sword….. I don’t think the exposure of these dodgy methods in the high profile of a leadership campaign will put the LibDems in a positive light amongst the general public. Rather it is likely to bring them back to earth with a bump. Especially when the recriminations begin.
77 - I think that 99% of the public are pretty unaware of the leadership campaign so your last point is a bit silly.
Defections - I wondered when we’d see a Tory use that word again. As had been said here already today - Huhne is not high tax (though Hughes may be) - I can’t see how lifting all those earning less than £10,000 a year can be seen as that. In fact that £10,000 figure is close to what right-wing, flat tax supporting think tanks come out with.
75. An intriguing possibility. But more prosaically, the YouGov registered Lib Dems may just be more skewed towards ‘Orange Bookism’, certainly if this site is anything to go by. That would distort the result too.
75. One of the questions in the Yougov profile is do you consider youself a supporter of a particular party. I expect they would have asked only the people who said they considered themelves LD supporters, and then had the first question being “Are you a member of the Liberal Democrats?” if people answer no then they don’t ask them any more questions, if they answer yes then they get asked the rest of the questions.
I don’t doubt the veracity of this poll at all, but one does have to ask how Yougov got hold of a list of Liberal Democrat members? I would have thought you would have to have done a huge sample to narrow it down to a members only poll.
If John Stevens (or the Huhne camp) have let Yougov have a list of Lib Dem members then there are huge data protection implications here. If the Huhne camp gave Yougov the data they have collected during the course of the campaign (e-mail addresses etc) then surely the sample is skewed?
Or have I got this wrong?
78 - meant to say lifting those earning less than £10,000 a year out of income tax altogether… oops!
81. Apologies for double posting!
Last prices matched (Betfair)
Campbell 2.08
Huhne 2.02
Hughes 24
16 - This is the only person that raises this subject here, clearly for a libel purpose. Could he plese finally moderated?
Huhne is now favourite on Betfair, but it’s still possible to back him at 2.
John Stevens explains the rather odd EU mention among ‘policy priorities’.
This must be an interim result as the poll deadline was Friday morning I think. Lots of interesting if unsurprising stuff - all three candidates scoring negatively on their perceived flaws. Interestingly, no published reaction to various roles in Kennedy’s downfall. Equally interesting is Chris Huhne’s very high score on appeal to women and young people.
49 - garbage. Tim Farron’s comments in The Times accord more with the private views of all.
58 - all good points. QT crucial and the media will follow members’ reaction without a doubt.
49 - Why would Laws defect if Huhne wins? It is true that Laws supports Campbell, but Huhne was one of the contributors to the Orange Book, which Laws co-edited, so I’m sure they can co-operate with the other.
85. I agree Emmy. I wandered what rock he crawled out of with that remark. Yuk!
SBS I didn’t mention tax. But that could be another fissure that will grow.
The shenanigans may not register on the public’s radar yet, but they will once to other parties decide to highlight them. Drip fed data on the new nasty and shifty party who lecture others on propriety but have a sex scandal after booze scandal, dodgy bar charts and false claims. Sounds like another party I know used to be. And believe me, like the cuckold, you are the last to know your party is in the manure.
You are, naturally, in denial.
However, step back and look at the comments on here over the last few days. The stress lines are clear to see and in this it is different to the Tory election where there was a successful attempt at camaraderie in competition. Hughes this week has been lambasting the race leader, Huhne talking up the age and endurance issue in an ageist attack, and even the press have been after Campbell for lack of energy etc. Some fairly nasty stuff has been winging around. Who ratted on Oaten (that story is not finished) and who outed Hughes?
No, you have a difficult time ahead of you whoever wins but Huhne seems likely to create the highest waves in your fish tank because he will upset the hard core and the MPs. And there is plenty of grist for their mills.
29 - Third place and/or a reduced vote, although if the latter we’ll have come third or worse anyway. I think the Labour figures are about right. They’re crying wolf with the SNP to try and counter the Lib Dem threat. Same order as the GE but a huge reduction in the Labour majority.
And Marcus care to tell us what level of Tory result will disappoint you?
49 & 77 - You really are in a fantasy world if you think any of these MPs will defect to the Tories. I think you can cross Vince Cable of your list anyway if this article in today’s Guardian is anything to go by.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1705413,00.html
75 Peter - you’ve got it hugely wrong (as usual). YouGov have a register of party members whiich they’ve compiled - how representative it is - well that’s another matter.
Other big implication of these polls is Simon Hughes will have to perform like he’s never done before in the next few days to make up lost ground…
Considering it’s the Orange Bookers who are supposed to defect and Huhne is the closest of the candidates to them, then it doesn’t make sense that there would be defections. Unless, of course, you think some of the social liberals would join the Tories (PMSL).
And as a Lib Dem, I don’t have a home in what is now a stridently anti-European party. Never mind all the other reasons based on policy. All this “new Tory” stuff, is just a thin veneer imposed by Cameron to try and win votes, like most veneers, it will run off showing the old wood underneath.
Re YouGov’s sample, it is small anyway and they will not have verified that people are genuinely paid-up members. (But respondents have some incentive to lie and say they are, in order to get invited to more such polls in future.)
More to the point — of the genuine Lib Dem members signed up to YouGov, there will be a disproportionate number of activists. This is because YouGov’s overall panel consists, as I understand it, not only of the esteemed apolitical specially-recruited grannies from knitting circle websites, but also of politics nuts who self-recruited and signed up to be on the panel. And people interested enough to find their way to the yougov website by themselves are more likely to be activists than ordinary members.
I would expect this poll to be wide of the mark, as name-recognition is more important among armchair members.
ok, ive put an unmatched bet on Campbell at 2.5, how long will my bet remain if it fails to be matched? Can i cancel it or do i have to wait for a cut off time?
Ade
96 It will remain until it is taken or you Cancel it - or the new leader is elected (March 2nd I think)
No idea why I gave cancel a big ‘C’ there.
well, cancelling is a big step.
i think i might be lucky to get 2.5 at the moment.
91 Huhne winning would upset MP’s who backed Ming no more than DC winning upset those who backed DD . But keep pinning your dreams on fantasy defections so we can ask you daily how many there have been so far . Blue to lose the next GE again .
There’s no doubt that Labour saying there could be an SNP win in the bye-election is designed to confuse voters as to who the real challenger is… It is always the first party’s goal to prevent a clear challenger emerging in such 3-party circumstances. If the SNP really was the challenger it would be suicide to point it out and admit it in that way - which means there is no way that they are. Although Labour remin solid favorites, they are obviously worried that a low turnout could give a shock LibDem win.
Quite apart from that of course, if the SNP were really in provisional 2nd place then SNP activists who have seen canvass results would be piling massive bets in at 30/1 currently offered awaiting a possible massive payday that could bank-roll the party for the summer!
And the odds would be moving accordingly…
Ooh - I am being “moderated”? Is this new or have I been a bad boy??
Looks like my bet on ming might be taken.
so then if things changed and went back in the other direction, and i layed at 1, would i make a guaranteed profit or at least break even? (sorry, im a newbie here, feel free to look down on me with disgust.)
102 You would not be able to lay at 1 because that would be laying 1 pound to win 0 but you could lay at say 1.5 and if someone takes it then you would have a free bet on Ming . I am a novice at this too but think I am right
Aah yes that makes sense.
so if i Lay a tenner at 1.1 i’ll make a small profit should Ming win (a few pounds), and lose nothing should ming lose.
Dunfermline, someone, Labour, Lib dems or the SNP is going to have big egg on their faces, judging by their last statements or we may have here a genuine 3 way race, if so might there by recounts?
Couple of days ago thought Labour by 3-4,000, they are saying 1500, which ususally means they are worried and defeat is potentially in the offing.
I will stick by Labour, 3000, with Rennard’s track record just keeping the Lib Dems second, perhaps by a thousand or two.
205.With a low turnout, a 1,500 majority could be not so close afterall (in the 5-6% range).
The Kelner Letter.
Firstly, the letter admits the existence of the poll, but it does not say who the client is. I am sceptical that it is the Ming Campbell camp. The front-runner has no interest in polls. I might be wrong and it would explain why they are withholding it. Chris Huhne’s camp would have release the poll. Simon Hughes camp would have withheld it (it shows him third).
Is it possible that it is the Tory or Labour parties and that they are looking for ammo to rubbish the new leader, with the headline “who are you going to vote for” question being in the poll merely to check if the other figures are credible?
Mark Senior If I recall Huhne was actively backed by fewer LibDem MPs than any other candidate.
So 80 to 90% or more of MPs are not for Huhne and neither he nor Simon Hughes has made much effort to seem as brothers in a friendly competition. And many LibDem MPs have not hidden their bitterness and mutual loathing as press reports of private party meetings have shown.
A leadership election made against the back drop of scandal on scandal, the second of which was very close to home for one remaining candidate and nearly caused another press witch hunt, is not the most tranquil of environments.
Some of the stuff that has been going on, and some of the posts which have been placed here, go way, way beyond the tough electioneering of the DD campaign and would horrify even Mr Conway were it suggested they should be used in a leadership election campaign.
Add to that the repeated references to the ‘SDP’ candidate, and the stated determination of Campbell to lead the LibDems to the left of Labour as would Hughes. He would leave the real Liberals out in the cold. Either scenario sets the scene for a continuing fractiousness whomever wins.
And the fact that there are, according to LibDem opinion on this site and out, including Paddy A, that there are better candidates than Huhne in the parliamentary party, and they know it themselves, a Huhne win would be corrosive if not explosive, a Campbell win would be short term and lacklustre and unstable with the young cardinals trying to push him off his perch fairly soon, and a Hughes win would be wonderful for us.
An unenviable position indicating interesting times.
Most of them had committed themselves to Campbell before Huhne had entered the race. Do not assume that some of Ming’s followers are not sympathetic to Huhne.
Oddly Huhne has won the support of more MSPs than Campbell.
209.”Oddly Huhne has won the support of more MSPs than Campbell”
And Campbell more MEPs than Huhne.
Andrea, some might say the Scots are cannier than the English and Welsh. Me I could not possibly comment.
53 I thought the new modern Tories were pro-Europe now?
So… any Dunfermline news? I note that Labour’s price on Betfair has remained fairly stable at 1.12 all day, whilst the LDs have moved out to 6.4 with some desperately trying to move it in by offering keener odds.
I’ll update that - someone has clearly succeeded in moving the LD price. It’s now at 5.4!
According to BBC News online the number of postal ballots requested was 6,700 (9.28% of the total electorate). Given that the vote in Livingston was 38.59% turnout overall, does this suggest that postal voting is the new way to retain Labour seats?
Word from the postal vote count was that the Lib Dems were only 5 or 6 points behind Labour with the SNP and Cons on around 15% and 10% respectivly.
116 - word from whom? Does it add up to 109%
Word from the postal vote count was that the Lib Dems were only 5 or 6 points behind Labour with the SNP and Cons on around 15% and 10% respectivly.
by AJ February 9th, 2006 at 6:44 pm
If that is right on 6,700 the gap about 375 -400!!
Remember Adam Boulton saying at 11pm that Labour thought they had Brent East by a 1000.
Talking of 2000 or 1000 is rather ominous, Brent East was a 39% poll if I recall.
Me I stck by 3000 for Labour, looks as if the Lib Dems are second, but would it not be great if it was almost a 3 way tie.
119. I recall Sky claiming LD and Con being neck to neck in Cheadle, but then the LD held it by 10%.
I’m not AJ, by the way.
BBC Scotland Live Report from Dunfermline says “broader smiles on the Lib Dems”
BBC Scotland Live Report
Tight between Lab and Lib Dem (with SNP third). Lib Dems good second, challenging. But West Fife still to arrive.
No comments on QT- has everyone fallen asleep?
…i guess there’s the answer!
news from the count is looking very positive for the Lib Dems apparently.
Yes, BBC News 24 is reporting a potential Lib Dem GAIN (the first from Scottish Labour that Curtice can remember). Turnout confirmed as 49%
I did a straw poll of fourteen councillors following a council meeting yesterday. Just first preferences.
Hughes 2
Huhne 5
Campbell 5
Undecided (including me) 2