Could the Lib Dem race still spring a surprise?
February 16th, 2006
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Just two week to go before new leader is elected
The chopping and changes in the betting chart above show the extraordinary fluctuations there’ve been in the Lib Dem leadership race from the day after Charles Kennedy announced his resignation just six weeks ago. The chart shows the implied probability of success based on the Betfair betting exchange market.
In the first phase the money piled on Ming Campbell after a YouGov members poll on the morning of Kennedy’s resignation showed him beating Hughes by 49-21.
Then, just four days later, the sentiment moved sharply away from Ming after a lacklustre debut in the leader’s slot at Prime Minister’s Questions. Simon Hughes moved into the favourite’s slot.
This was followed by the awful final part of January for the party when Mark Oaten pulled and ahead of the rent boy allegations and Simon Hughes was forced to go public about his gay past. Then Hughes got a boost again from an unusual ICM panel survey.
All the while the former MEP, Chris Huhne was slowly gathering support until the second published YouGov members’ poll last week that put him just ahead.
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So is it all over? Will Chris Huhne take over the job in a fortnight’s time?
After predictring the Tory races of 2001 and 2005 to within one per cent it’s very difficult to argue against YouGov’s record in membership polls and there’s little doubt that the momentum was with Huhne when the ballot papers arrived last week. But Ming did marginally better in the Question Time debate and has had the advantage of being acting leader when the Dunfermline sensation happened.
I’ve taken another set of soundings from Lib Dem members that I know to see if there have been changes since I last spoke to them. The message I have got is that there is very little movement. Most have already voted and they’ve not changed their mind from my conversations earlier in the month. Those who were split between Campbell and Huhne seem to be just favouring the younger man.
My prediction. I think that Huhne will just scrape in but by a very small margin over Campbell. But I am not confident enough to throw all my money behind him and I am continuing to bet on Ming whenever his price eases to above 1.75/1. I’m in profit whichever of the two gets it.
Mike Smithson
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I still think the Liberal Democrats will have traded down in every leadership change since David Steel.
None of the 3 will have anything like the appeal of Charles Kennedy.
With Labour ex Blair and therefore with fewer ‘free’ votes available for a protest party and Cameron snatching votes from the centre - this is a huge poisoned chalice.
I guess they might well lost half their seats.
But when Tony Blair eventually goes his party will be losing the most extraordinary vote magnet of modern times. There simply is nobody else to touch him from any of the three main parties. Blair is just incredible.
Brown, or whoever, will enjoy a honeymoon but he is is nowhere near to Blair in terms of popular appeal and as an election strategist.
If Blair is the Chelsea in terms of his appeal none of the others in any of the parties are even in the Premiership.
When TB finally moves on UK politics will be wide open.
James , Kennedy’s appeal was very limited when he started.
Anyway, the Dunfermline result result may suggest the leader is overvalued, if anything there, it was Nicol Stephen who was the main figure, who is he, most people would ask. Despite the press, I still feel, it’s the policies and events, that finally count.
[2] The “New Labour” project was consciously modelled on Bill Clinton’s success in the States. It may seem to have been a remarkable success but the chickens are now coming home to roost - we have a very different political system and Blair’s contempt for Parliament, which has been constant throughout, is now clearly a liability. Clinton, after all, only had to win two terms. This is not to say that Blair is wrong to believe (as his actions suggest at least to me that he believes) that Parliament is simply incapable of meeting the triple challenges of globalisation, climate change and “al-Qaeda type” terrorism. I hope he is wrong if that is indeed what he believes - but if I had any reasons to think so, I would give them. In truth, I just don’t know.
My feeling is that the tide is ebbing for Huhne. The key reason for this is not principally that he was a bit dull and disappointing on Question Time, nor that he got into some local difficulties on Tuesday over women and ethnic minority candidates and shortlists and quotas. The underlying reason is that Huhne has been a bit of a “none of the above” candidate. As people did not know very much about him, they projected their wishes upon him. As people find out more about him, they do not become more enthusiastic.
I have had a go at explaining this here.
Someone here (I think) made the point that Huhne has more support among MSPs (who know him little) than MEPs (who know him well). This is why the campaign is still open. My feeling is that Ming Campbell - the Olympic athlete - will be ahead at the finishing line.
What is so surprising is how a small gap in one opinion poll is reflected in a such a huge gap in the odds.
5. It was only a matter of time before the “none of the above” party elected a “none of the above” leader…
re 6 Peter. There are no prizes for predicting the second place. A winner is a winner if only by one vote.
As I said I am hedging my bets.
Have you seen the piece on Chis Huhnes views on cannabis - goes back to his days at Oxford - but I think a bit more probing of his past views will begin to bring the shine off him . alos tax policies held up to be rather incredible .
Time to stay safe with Ming - if they can win Dunferline with Ming in charge - and agianst the backdrop of Oaten - why risk all on a new untested leader
Thye article on Chris Huhne is in the Times today
9. The tax policies I’m afraid are indeed incredible - massive tax relief for the lower paid all funded by swingeing taxes on things that hurt the environment. It sounds great but is really just another version of the ‘50% rate for the super rich’ - a policy designed to fool people into thinking that lavish promises can be paid for by squeezing a small number of (unpopular) people. For someone with an economics background it is very disappointing populist stuff.
[11] Why are “sin taxes” bad economics?
8 … there are on betfair - the Lib Dem forecast market
Peter (6) - The odds are not surprising if, as I assume, they genuinely reflect the weight of money for each candidate. If Huhnes backers rich then their money will be causing the position that Huhne has as relatively strong favourite, but they could be both rich and wrong!
Unlike Mike my book is heavily towards Ming, but from my (financial) point of view at worst the race is neck and neck - and all the, admittedly patchy, evidence I have is that Ming is 5 - 10% ahead.
We will see on the day - but a neutral poll (not commissioned by an interested party) would be wonderful!
2.”But when Tony Blair eventually goes his party will be losing the most extraordinary vote magnet of modern times. There simply is nobody else to touch him from any of the three main parties. Blair is just incredible.”
He just helped his party to lose 47 seats in a GE.
And don’t start the “he was in such difficult conditions, it’s a miracle he did so well” thing, because he was responsible of the situation his party was in.
Has not gone without comment. http://innerwestcentral.blogspot.com/2006/02/updated-chris-huhne-approves-of.html
14 - But the odds on Betfair bear no relation to the amount bet and matched . Huhne 156,000 Campbell 431,000 Hughes 128,000 . On these figures Ming should be long odds on .
Andrea, I just love it when Labour supporters like you fail to see Blairs appeal to everyone else.
I agree with Mike, when Blair goes and the Brown honeymoon is over you will all be reminded of what being in opposition is like.
re 9. Whow. the anti-Huhne forces are getting desperate if they think that something that he wrote while a student more than 30 years ago can impact on the race. That is just pathetic.
Icarus 14. Your idea that the YouGov poll was not neutral is a nonsense. The firm puts its name to it and will be judged by the outcome.
Campbell did himself no good at PMQs yesterday. His little joke made him look pathetic. He is completely out of his depth.
Anyway everybody I know has voted.
We do not want an elderly care-taker but someone who can take us forward. Sadly Ed Davey is not in the race but Huhne is and let’s hope he clinches it.
18. and I love when tory supporters like you always see tory’s appeal everywhere, but then you even fail to unseat an hard-left MP like Bob Marshall Andrews in a “middle England” seat.
20 ‘Ouch!’
County councillor - calm down. The general view seems to be that Ming did well yesterday. One prominent Huhne supporter worte “Bloody Hell! Ming was briliant at PMQs”
http://pigeon-post.blogspot.com/2006/02/ming-at-emetf-hustings-updated.html
And of course AHM said so here yesterday!
21. ah, and I’m not a Labour’s supporter. I mean I would have voted for many Labour candidates, but I’m sure I would have not voted for many of their candidate too.
It is clearly going to be close between Ming and Chris.
FWIW I detect a slight move to Ming.
However I also think that this process has shown up the great difficulties that the pollsters have with the Lib Dems- leaving aside the one or two dodgy polls that looked at “supporters” rather than members. Too many people get wrapped up in silly beard and sandals stereotypes and fail to notice the reality: a pretty independently minded group- in other words this electorate is very difficult to second guess.
Peter 22 - I know you are the self-appointed web cheer-leader for Ming but if you had been in Dunfermline last week you would have discovered that your man is not even popular amongst the locals. There was much talk of a “write-in” for Charlie.
Huhne, I agree, is a risk but then so is Ming.
Now that TB has seen off the rebels and avoided a stream of government defeats and bad headlines, I wonder if he’s having second thoughts about the power handover. Hope Gordon hasn’t bought all those pink ties for nothing.
26 - Co Co - from my own soundings of local party members (ie not activists) at our recent constituency dinner, CK is clearly held in high regard and viewed with warmth. But at the same time members understand the reasons why he had to go - in other words all this “write-in” stuff is sentimental talk (which may be more prevalent in Scotland due to CK’s origins) that won’t be matched by action.
All 3 candidates have strengths and weaknesses, but we are in the fortunate position that whoever wins will have the support of a talented front-bench team.
22. Sorry to bring you back to realism. MC was very, very average yesterday, sounding very lack lustre. If LDs think he should lead them — they’re destined for years in the wilderness.
27. There weren’t enough rebels in previosu votes for the government to lose anyway. Newspapers exagerate the risk IMO. If Hilary the Clueless had done her job right, the government should have won both votes with a reduced majority.
It must be said that some previosu rebels on these issues backed the government or abstained these isseus.
Like some posters said yesterday, they could have done it because the feeling now is to “stay togethere” and fight the tory’s and LD’s threat.
29 et al. - Also, to bring people back to reality, PMQ is relatively unimportant - Hague permanently got the better of Blair (as again yesterday) and it did him no good at all.
29 et al. All Campbell’s performances at PMQs have been weak imho. But as Lennon points out, very few people watch it and it only rarely provides clips for the 6 and 10 news bulletins, which is where most people get their news.
However, Campbell is much better on TV interviews than in the House. He comes across as wise and authoritative.
My conclusion therefore is that his Commons performances should have little impact on the voting.
I write this as a Tory, so you may well ask “What the Hell’s it got to do with you?”.
32 add. And those who heard William Hague on the Today programme may also start to recall why he wasn’t the hit with the public that he was in the House. He said very little and said it in a very dull way.
33 - Although he was on a bit of a hideing to nothing, Bush is really unpopular in this country so you dont really want to highlight the fact that you’re going there to build bridges…
26 - And yet the Lib Dems still scraped in despite the supposed unpopularity of their stand-in leader and neighbouring MP! Funny that.
I am a Ming supporter but have nothing against Huhne, and I think that is very widely shared by Ming supporters. Hughes was far more of a worry in the sense of simply having the image of a wild-eyed wilderness man who is quite likable but not very electable. On paper and in terms of presentation, Ming and Huhne pass the credibility test. I believe the electorate could envisage either one of them carrying a ministerial red box in a way which is much more difficult with Hughes.
However, I do detect a feeling that support for Huhne is just ebbing a little. His launch was exciting - a bold move which the independent-minded Lib Dem membership admired. But he was shaky on Question Time and there is a feeling that he has been too keen to tickle the tummies of activists and not keen enough on developing an appealing, outward looking agenda. The older Campbell, who Huhne has been rather ready to dismiss as a short-term choice, actually comes out as having a much more long-term view on policy development.
28 - Similarly in my constituency. Our MP - a Huhne supporter - gave an excellent and open account to members of the circumstances and there was sympathy at the meeting for CK, concerns expressed as to how the whole matter had been handled by the party, but ultimately unanimity in the understanding that CK had to step down because of his alcoholism.
33 - Baskerville - a good point. Think of Hague’s voice versus Campbell’s. That said - “Today” is probably not much more influential than PMQs.
I would agree with Cicero in that my soundings of people who’d made up their mind split roughly evenly between Ming and Chris (note: this was a very small and unrepresentative sample!). There did not seem to be much sentiment in favour of Simon, hence Simon’s secoind prefs will probably decide the outcome.
I apologise if my plea for a neutral poll was taken a slur on YouGov.
As far as I am aware two polls have been carried out by YouGov but only one was published, presumably because whoever paid for it did not like the result. There is signifuicant margin of error in polls which is ignored in the “result” as shown in the headlines.
If the first poll that YouGov shows a different result from the second but is suppressed, then I do think we are in danger of being mislead. My complaint is not with the fairness of the poll but that the (biased) commissioner of the poll decides whether to release it or not.
31: ‘PMQ is relatively unimportant’
Well, you wouldn’t have guessed that from the reaction of some on here and elsewhere when David Cameron had his hiccup last week: the wheels are coming off; exposed as shallow PR man his is etc.
I’m not sure PMQs is entirely irrelevant. If IDS had dazzled with his brilliance (as opposed to his ineptitude) every week would so many of his colleagues have rushed to boot him out? Perhaps we can say that if you’re competent at PMQs the effect is neutral; if you’re hopeless dark mutterings begin and then…
29 et al (cont) - I think Ming’s done just fine at PMQs. And if he gets the job, as I think he will, he’ll get better at it.
Where I don’t agree is that Hague bested Blair yesterday. Hague got in a good joke, but Blair is without doubt the best debater in the House. Even, perhaps especially, when he’s in the wrong (as he was yesterday). Simon Carr makes this point very well in today’s Indy.
26 - spot on - Peter’s constant cooing for Ming is getting tiresome and the anti-Chris stuff increasingly far-fetched.
I’m not surprised at all about the costings Andrew Pierce cites. It just goes to demonstrate that what is being proposed is genuinely radical - and yet achievable, and will be costed.
Of course it wasn’t long ago that everyone was raving about a flat tax. This is basically the progressive version
The key thing now is to listen to that hard-to-reach group - the Lib Dem non-activist member. I tend to the view that it’s very close, wouldn’t like to call it either way, but Simon Hughes transfers will decide it.
12. ‘Sin’ taxes are not necessarily of themselves bad economics; that wasn’t what I meant. What is bad economics is to pretend that they can provide a huge sum of additional revenue which will not impact heavily on ordinary voters. The only sin taxes I can see which would really raise a lot of money would be on petrol or household fuels…and the consequences of raising those taxes would in fact be highly regressive. Suggesting you can get the money from the corporate sector is a fantasy - you might be able to squeeze a bit more out of small businesses, but larger firms will just shift activity abroad.
39.”Hague got in a good joke”
somtimes I got the impression that people think Hague is great just because he sometimes has good jokes!
Kennedy: At general election time I was working in an office where people occasionally discussed the election. There were several people who were generally sympathetic to the Lib Dems, but could not vote for them as they regarded CK as a joke of a leader. These people mostly ended up not voting at all.
Likewise there others who are sympathetic, but regarded CK as a lightweight, so voted for a heavyweight party leader (Howard or Blair).
CK is warm and personable. But he was not necessarily the great vote winner people think. He was also indecisive, and lacked direction, and in the last year, very unreliable.
Every single Lib Dem member I have spoken to think CK should have stepped down sooner.
James L at (1) - we’ve heard it all before. There is affection for CK in the party, and he may have a role to play, but it is time to move onwards, and upwards.
35.”wild-eyed wilderness man ”
best description of Hughes I read here!
41 - There are issues with ’sin’ taxes and green taxes that the yield will dramatically decrease if they’re effective!
37 - Icarus, I think it’s entirely fair to hope for a poll that has not been paid for by any one of the campaigns.
I have been polled 4 times by YouGov: on two of those occasions the slanting of the questions have made it very easy for me to identify who had paid for the poll.
That is wrong in 2 ways. First, the questions shouldn’t be phrased in such a way as to allow me infer that kind of info. And, secondly, because I suspect I gave slightly different answers as a result of knowing who was collecting the information.
MS is exactly right when he commends TB on his vote winning performances. He is head and shoulders above all the other leaders, and potential leaders, including GB. Obviously, grandpa Ming, CH and SH look thin beer in comparison—but then so does DC.
GB won’t win a GE if his opponents make the ‘yesterday’s man’, or the ‘past not the future’ impression stick. If he can avoid looking like that, I guess we’ll have him for a while yet.
Where does that leave the LDs? The floating voter (FV) has no interest in their policies. And all their potential leaders are unknown to the FV. Any of them will have a shot at making GB look out of date, but grandpa Ming could not possibly do it convincingly.
Does anyone know just how much YouGov charges for a poll of Lib Dem members like the one we saw the other day?
48 - it is said to be about £5000.
43 - I would be a bit more positive. CK definitely has a role to play in the future.
45. Yep joking aside you can quickly erode your tax base with these sort of impositions if you are not careful. The massive increase in imports of bent fags and loose tobacco in recent years being a good example. Sitting in my local you can observe most of the regulars enjoying roll ups labelled in many languages.
The more I see of Huhne the more I like him (as a Tory). God he’s dull.
50 - agreed, the party will have him. It’s up to him if he is still interested, and I think he needs a few months to sort himself out.
I wasn’t suggesting anyone should be at all satisfied with predicting second place, but I don’t think a 3% lead in one poll should imply a lead of nearly 20% in probability implied by the odds on offer.
17 - Good point!
David R Agree entirely! I have said before he is like a cross between David Davis without the charm and Alistair Darling without the nous.
Every inch the European bureaucrat.
52, 56 - now is that truth, bluff, or double bluff?
On the evidence we have, and it is very sketchy, it appears the Huhne and Campbell have it betweeen them. All the members web site polls I have seen have Huhne ahead but …., all agree, SH appears well back, at present anyway. If these are right, and it is of course potentially a big if, then SH’s second preferences may decide. Again those web site polls suggest that upto now more go to Huhne than Campbell. BUT THE WEB SITE POLLS ARE PROBABLY COMPLETED BY ACTIVISTS.
Me, I do not know, suspect it will be close, and after the second preferences are added, maybe even closer.
56. Marcus, are there any non-tories you like or you could think he has some sort of vague appeal?
Tabbers, if you have to choose your leader based on who you think we Conservatives like/fear the most then you guys are in more trouble than I thought!
60 - Marcus, I’ve already made my choice based on my view of their relative electoral appeal, and policy set.
I’m just curious, because I know on what basis I would be giving advice to you
57 - i swear on the holy bible that I am more than happy that you haven’t kept Kennedy and are going to replace him with a man who will never be a major chat show figure.
I dont fully understand the money staked on Betfair (Mark at 17) figures, but they seem to be the sum of the liabilities and and the money staked. So £1 staked at 10 shows as £11 traded - the layer could lose his £10. I am not sure the toatls shown as traded are a useful guide. But on Betfair the current price shows, like any market that as much money is prepared to take the price as to lay it - hence the price stays the same (as it has done for some time).
59 - Ah but I am much less partizan with my slagging off
I see we are about to try and perpetuate the uncomfortable relationship we have with the mad right over the pond 
60 - Rubbish! All parties nowadays like to choose appealing leaders. It’s not indicative of trouble; it’s common sense. Why, even, the Tories sussed that out in the end. You chose DC for precisely that reason you knew he would be a greater fear to Lab and Lib Dems.
64. who’s the “mad right over the pond”?
43: I just don’t agree that Charles Kennedy was a vote-loser. I suspect he was key to winning some of the university cities, for example. Your non-election voters might easily have found another reason not to vote Lib Dem if someone else had been in charge. The Lib Dem appeal is basically to anti-politics- as Dunfermline showed, their consummate grassroots organisation is much more important than their leadership.
66 - Bush
O/T but related to yesterday’s speculation abour Irish Passports. To get an Irish Passport you have to be an Irish Citizen. My wife qualifies as a citizen (Irish parents), and presumably my children would too. The rules on being the spouse of an Irish citizen seme to indicate you need to be living in Ireland to qualify.
66 - when I first read that I thought it was a typo, and was to do with saving the po(u)nd.
The people the devil uses when he wants to get anything done (copyright South Park) the Republicans.
**shiver**
I thought the “mad right” were a counterbalance to the “loony left”. Although perhaps Blair’s rebels over civil liberty issues should be called “loony liberals”.
66/68. thanks.
re 46. The big problem is that, sadly, the Lib Dem contest is not seen as a big enough news story for a newspaper to want to invest £5,000 is commissioning a members’ poll.
My guess is that the Telegraph, which commissioned the January 7th poll, will want to do another survey before the results are announced. YouGov, no doubt, would like to do something that updates last week’s poll because that will be the one that is quoted as “their record”
Given that the paper is the pollster’s biggest media client then they probably get it a much lower rate.
72. SBS, but so Corbyn and co are “loony liberals” when they rebel over civil liberties and “loony leftists” when they rebel over education or NHS?
BTW …… for those still awake in the Lib Dem leadership ………. yawn Zzzzzzzzzzz ……… sorry ….. I’ll hope to have a few snippets later this evening ……… no !! wake up there !!
by Jack W February 15th, 2006 at 7:18 pm
Jack stayed up half the night waiting for your pearls of wisdom - - perhaps you fell asleep - What news from the Rialto?
72 - the liberati, please
44 - Thank you very much, Andrea. Maybe “wild-eyebrowed” would have been better though judging by QT last week!
47 - I don’t think his age is what will make Brown look like yesterday’s man. It is more his familiarity and general approach to politics. If it’s Ming, I would guess he will continue on the “bridge to the future” theme - an unsubtle message that he will be the hand on young Dave’s shoulder (or possibly the shoulder of a new Labour leader) in any coalition. I don’t think wisdom and experience - or at least the perception thereof - go out of fashion just because people are a bit bored of Brown. Huhne risks appearing to be a poor man’s Dave - a risk I think he can avoid but which is there. I think it is much clearer what Campbell’s USP will be in 2009/10.
On policy, I think you underestimate the significance. Few people can name any party’s policy beyond one or two headlines and this is even more so for the Lib Dems. What does matter is whether your opponents can realistically paint your policies as extreme, or wacky and/or self-contradictory. To do that successfully, there has to be an element of truth in those charges. A robust and lean policy agenda, clearly articulated to opinion formers (heavyweight journalists, lobby groups and business leaders) actually matters a great deal in terms of building a “these guys are serious” image rather than an “in lighter news, the Lib Dems were out campaigning in Runcorn today” picture.
76.”What news from the Rialto? ”
the water is under control!
SBS “All parties nowadays like to choose appealing leaders. It’s not indicative of trouble; it’s common sense”
Unless, of course, you sack the most appealing leader and try to convince yourselves that everything will be fine.
63 I understand your logic but it appears you are not correct £2 on Simon Hughes at 15/1 shows up in the total as £4 matched . Perhaps our admin can explain . I agree that the ptice has stayed pretty constant for some days with a slight drift away from Hughes but even there noone is rushing to lay him although 1 or 2 posters have said it is guaranteed free money .
75 - Andrea, its all to do with the twin-axis approach to politics; you should really define yourself in a quadrant rather than in two dimensions.
54 - not sure about the statistics on this issue. Understand a 3% lead is within the margin of error. But the lead in implied probability of victory will always be bigger than the poll lead. A 20% poll lead would lead to a massive lead in implied probability of victory (ie. far more than 20%).
80 - “leader” being the operative word, Marcus.
75 - Just like the definition of a terrorist! My freedom fighter is your terrorist or insurgent.
80 - did you really have “the fear” for CK? Come on, in time MC or CH will be more of a threat than CK in the last year. Just as DC is more of a threat than JM, WH, IDS or MH.
74 The problem is that even a new poll by YouGov (even without the questions that Stephen Tall describes as “slanted”) will still be a YouGov poll. It would be more credible if another polling organisation with a different approach were saying something similar.
I do think we will have a surprise when votes are opened.
82. Tabman, I think you should add dimensions, because 2 are not enough!
Anyway I pleased by this love you’re showing for Corbyn today. I doubt he’ll join Sedgemore anyway.
Not sure I totally agree with the definition of Blair as ‘the most extraordinary vote magnet of modern times’. Wasn’t Labour’s vote share, in the last GE, the lowest for a winning party on record? Didn’t Blair’s war in Iraq provoke the greatest protest march in the history of demonstrations? Hasn’t his party just lost a by-election in their 20th safest seat, or whatever?
No, Blair is not an extroardinary vote magnet. What he is, is an extremely nimble political careerist, able to dodge the flak produced by his own lies and mistakes by getting others to carry the can, or foisting the blame elsewhere; he has also been confronted by an Opposition uniquely enfeebled by historical standards.
But I agree that Blair’s bullet-dodging skills have been crucial in keeping Labour in power; when he goes everything will indeed change. And good thing too.
82 - I’m starting to think that even the twin-axis approach isn’t really very good (although better than the linear alternative, and have been trying to come up with a useable 3 dimensional approach.) Only problem is that I suspect that I want one that is non-euclidean, and am thinking about working with the surface of a hypersphere. Perhaps I’m trying to be too mathematical… :confused:
82 - see also this, Andrea.
75 - yes. Always interesting to see Kate Hoey rebel. She had been touted as “most likely Labour MP to defect to the Tories” - perhaps Rik W can let us know.
89 - seanT - let’s qualify that, then.
Blair is the most extraordinary vote magnet where it matters in our times. He is extraordinarily adept at finding the political G-Spot of those crucial 800,000 swingers. The legions of non-voters in the urban seats don’t matter a damn.
92 Other than TB
90 - if you wanted to accurately model the “distance” between everyone, I think you’d need as many dimensions as you had respondents (though I can’t think of a snappy proof for it).
If you want a three-dimensional approach you could adapt what Chris Lightfoot has done, and not impose your own axis definitions on the methodology, but take the three biggest eigenvalues of the correlation matrix between questions on a survey, and use the corresponding eigenvectors as your axes.
http://ex-parrot.com/~chris/wwwitter/20050415-my_country_right_or_left.html
91. Tabman, I ‘m fully aware about all the dimensions you could come up with. I was just pointing out about the attitude of other parties toward the Lab rebels.
Maybe it was more directed to the tories: Corbyn is an old dinosaur (copyright to DC) when he’s against education reform, but then a great liberal when he votes againt Blair’s terrorism bills.
92 - “Hye nye Keet Hoy”
92/97. Book Value and I recently have a deep political discussion about her……. and her hairstyle!
Who would like to join forces and commission a new YouGov poll? 100 punters at only £50 per pop - you could make the money back bettting on the outcome!
I think Kate Hoey would now be happier within the Conservative Party (I’d be happy to have her in the Conservative Party). Burning bridges can be very difficult though.
92. She is certainly more comfortable in the company of many Tories than most of her own side. Having said that, so is BMA and I really don’t think he is going to join us. More likely he would join the Lib Dems where he could keep that impeccable Orange Booker Brian Sedgemore company.
100 - Her election leaflets were very un Labour.
99 - Correction — You could make the money back betting before the outcome was generally known!!!!
101 - Fred, just give Commieron a few more non-policy announcements and the BMAs of this world will be flocking to your embrace
102. more than “vote Glenda, bash Blair” slogan? ok, she didn’t really write it on her leaflets, but according to The Times it was the best description of her campaign.
Another one tipped to defect to the Tories was Jane Griffiths, late of Reading East, but I believe they would not have her. Would have been Rik W’s MP at one point, I believe.
105 - no wonder Bullseye didn’t make as much headway as he might; the anti-Blair vote was already going to Hoey.
104. Tabman, try to imagine the “Cameron joins the Campaign Group” headline!
SBS I viewed Kennedy was a leader I knew appealed to regular voters. He was seen as an honest bloke and, compared to either Howard or IDS was far more likeable and scored better with the public and therefore was an asset to your party against ours at election time.
Set against that was his complete failure to give your party a serious steer on it’s idealogical direction but I suppose it’s proof that you aren’t seen as anything more than a protest vote that it didn’t really seem to matter at the polls last time.
Do I fear any of the three on offer now? I recognise that Hughes would make the Liberal Democrats strong in Labour areas because he would stress issues that disaffected labour voters would relate to.
In an ex Conservative seat like Torbay that could work two ways, ex Tories would be more likely to come back to us - but set against that would be that more labour voters might be happy to vote for the Lib dems - a big squeeze on labour votes is how they won this seat.
On balance I fear Hughes a bit more than Campbell, and I don’t fear Huhne at all; mainly because his european position would help Conservatives in the SW hugely.
106. Don’t forget the Venerable Helen!
The interesting question, Mike, is why?
Most contributors here would regard Blair as being, at best, mediocre as a statesman (though brilliant at PR and political tactics). What do the public see in him that we don’t?
That’s in response to Mike’s comment at No. 2 btw.
111 - he seems to be able (for that crucial subset of swingers) to personalise their anxieties.
109 - CK a clear asset in 2001, but rather shambolic in 2005, despite the Iraq issue. Your Torbay comments are pretty accurate, though. Lean left, squeeze Labour, but lose Tory votes - don’t know the net effect.
106 - Well she’s now a bankrupt.
111 - I think he’s a bloody brilliant politician. Can’t wait for him to go.
95 - Thanks BV, interesting… I was trying to come up with the axes objectively, to cover politicians and politics of all time, (with the assumption that the general political space would move around the surface of the hypersphere over time). Was also thinking that to get distances to do sensible things you might a Hyperbolic effect too… Oh well, will mull over in the back of ones mind whilst actually working!
115 - and living in Latvia.
O/T - but interesting bit in the Indy today about who could be next UN Sec General (one possibility is Latvian President). Any odds on it yet? My money is on a European - not from the east (Russian veto). Blair? (joke!).
It’s not going to be much of a contest, Campbell will win quite clearly.
Regarding the ridiculous idea that tories are now knocking Huhne because the’re afraid of him. Wake up!!! They’re laughing their socks off as they come to realise that the guys a non-entity with policies leakier than a rusty bucket. As some lib dems seem to be voting for him without really knowing him he’s a disaster waiting to happen. If there were many labour supporters here they would also be stifling the sniggers at your headlong rush into oblivion that he would represent. Lib dems - you’re being played for mugs.
Huhne as leader - bye bye lib dems, both personally and electorally. Listen to your voters or die (metaphorically of course).
118. Teaching English….Reading Labour Party couldn’t contain their joy!
Thatcher and Blair seem to be despised by their opponents as much as loved by their supporters. In both cases they survived with the support of 40% or less of the voters because of the split opposition. What good leaders of the country need to do is gather support without attracting the hatred of those who disagree with them.
I think that this is what Cameron is trying to do, and may succeed, unless, as is possible, his own party members rebel against his neo new labour policies. I suppose it is easier, if like Kennedy, you are not seen as likely to form a government but I would argue that the hatred of Liberal Democrats shown by some of the activists of the other two parties is not shared by most voters. If this can be used by whoever becomes leader at the next election when we have a chance of being part of Government (see Scotland /Dunfermline) then who knows what may happen.
113. What kind of anxieties do swingers have? I always thought they were very relaxed, easygoing people.
re 87. I doubt if any pollster other than YouGov could mount such a survey. What they need is a list of Lib Dems members to create a properly adjusted sample taking into account ages etc.
You might recall that in the Tory race ICM was the only other pollster to do a survey. Its figures were DC-DD 76-24 although the survey took place five weeks before the ballot closed.
I think that you are clutching at straws by attacking YouGov. David Davis did the same at this stage in the Tory campaign.
Tabman, SeanF, etc.
Yes, you have a point. Perhaps I wasn’t giving Blair quite enough credit; he does know how to win elections, by pleasuring the swing voters, even if he isn’t technically a ‘vote magnet’.
But I still think my point about his Teflon-ness is important. When you think about it, the fact that he has survived Iraq - more or less intact - is truly remarkable. He led us into the most unpopular war since Suez. There’s strong evidence that he lied in the process. He did it to help a US president reviled by his own party. 100 British soldiers are dead, and for what? etc etc
All this would surely have brought down any other PM.. yet Blair has bodyswerved the whole business, and come out grinning. That IS a great political gift.
I don’t like it, obviously. I think he’s cheapened our politics. I think history will judge him harshly. I reckon the whole thing will haunt Labour for a decade. But the sheer political legerdemain is impressive, in a frustrating way. He is indeed ‘extraordinary’.
121 - I disagree I dont despise blair at all. He’s not actually done very much i disagree with violently aside from the Iraq war. Obviously I’m not a major fan of a lot of his policies but not a lot for me to hate him for.
The young Huhne’s drugs article in its entirety is here.
123 - Mike, I am not attacking Yougov - merely saying that the question as to whether yougov is accurate in this case would remain until the votes were opened.
Good point on ICM, though.
I think that reactions towards Thatcher were (and are) much more strongly partisan than those towards Blair.
I think Tabman has probably hit the nail on the head.
I don’t despise Blair as a politician; I certainly despise him at a moral level.
Hurrah a politician that talks sense on drugs. Vote Huhne.
re 119. Dream on Sir. You are yet another Ming-fantasist.
It was interesting in Dunfermline that the activists who had travelled hundreds of miles to help were, in the main, strongly pro-Huhne.
Ming might win but it will be very close.
118 Viara Vike Freiberga- President of Latvia- is a steely and very impressive woman. When Chirac met with her, she gave him so much what for over his asinine remarks about CEE and NATO, all in perfect French (she lived 40 years in Montreal), that he emerged from the meeting sweating and pale. So the Russian veto would probably be combined with a French one. A real pity- she is great!
Griffiths in Riga?? How come?
28. His genius has been not to alienate very large constituencies. The groups who are most bitter about him - farmers, hunting people, and anti-war lefties are relatively small. For me, his callous behaviour during the foot and mouth outbreak earned him my undying hatred, but I am not very representative.
131. She’s teaching English in Latvia now.
http://janestheones.blogspot.com/
130 - new around her eare you? I’m a lib dem voter but not member who would like Hughes to be the leader.
Campbell is clearly ahead and you know it, all the arrogan posturiung coming from Huhne and his camp cannot conceal that.
One thing that I can tell you, if lib dem members are rushing to support Huhne then your voters are going to vote with their feet and you’re gouing to lose seats.
Just what do you want - someone who will tickle your policy fancy at the expense of someone who will get votes? Dream on indeed…..
A bit O/T but I see there is another Council Byelection in North Wilts DC Lyneham Ward . In November the Conservatives gained the seat from the Lib Dems by 1 vote although as it was a split ward there was a small swing to the Lib Dems . The Lib Dem candidate is I believe last November’s losing candidate .
134 - Damn my typing, at least you can tell that I feel very strongly about the position you are taking and post before checking it.
132 My own impression from, I dare say, the polar opposite position to Fred is that he hasn’t been strong enough against the farmers, hunters and truck drivers and has tried far too hard to appease these groups which are his natural enemies.
132 - Reminded me of a Dilbert quote - “Every system shafts somebody, the thing about democracy is that is shafts people that are lazy and people that are stupid. Lazy people cant be bothered to complain, and stupid people dont realize they are being shafted, it’s an inherently stable system”
“Every leader alienates somebody, the thing about Blair is he alienates people that already dont like him, people that are too small in number to make a difference, or too lazy to complain”
Ming was woeful at PMQs his voice broke has he tried to speak over 1 Labour heckle of “behind you”…Hague superb, Blair pretty good too…welcome back 2 party politics.
134 I don’t understand why ukpaul is so sure Campbell is clearly ahead. I talk to lots of Lib Dem members and it’s easy to find Huhne supporters, not difficult to find Campbell ones, but harder to find Hughes backers. I have no problem accepting that this group might be a bit self-selecting, but I can find no evidence at all that anyone is clearly in the lead.
137. Well if you think hiring gangs of thugs to beat farmers’ animals to death and then burn the corpses on bonfires is not being hard enough, then I dread to think what you might have in mind.
125, 128 and also Blair hasn’t especially alienated the business community. Of course many if not most small business owners and executives will still vote conservative, but the spitting feathers fury of the 70s and 80s towards the Labour Party just isn’t there. Probably has had significant implications for Conservative fundraising from the corporate community…
Don’t see anything the matter with that article at all!
a key factor in Blair’s apeal is the way he rose to prominance without creating a clear identity.
Theres a famous anecdote where kinnock mentions him to Foot as ” very capable one of my lot” ( Centre)
and foot replies ” on the contrary I had a long conversation with him the other day he’s clearly one of us ( on the left).
His first Patron was Hattersley ( right) and when he moved under Kinnocks patronage he was largely engaged with policy review and defininng himself AGAINST the Lab party as it then was.
He’s often seen as an Instinctive rather than Ideological politician.
Its arguably his greatest strength that people can project all sorts of beliefs onto him.
What we don’t want is a dull leader. Remember the tedious David Steel? Years of boredom with the self-styled “militant for the moderate man”. Please no…..
I really do think SH’s chances are being WILDLY underestimated. the SH visit here in Canterbury on Monday was packed with members backing Simon.
Some money to be made here…..this will be another Dunfermline.
One aspect of the yougov poll that has been ignored is the 16% undecideds. It may be that nobody has changed their mind since the poll but if that 16% all swing one way then that will affect the result.
Will they all go one way? History tends to say no but history is talking about general elections. In this case are the 16% most likely to be ‘armchair’ members with less knowledge of all candidates and more prone to vote for the big names, Hughes or Ming. If so I’d expect Ming to win the first preference vote with a close battle for second and then Ming to win overall whoever comes 2nd.
137 - He’s banned hunting what else is he supposed to do to show he’s tough on the hunting community?
If CH wins maybe we’ll have to revive our spoof alternative to Focus - “Moderation” - the newsletter of the Party for Moderate Progress Within the Bounds of the Law ( with apologies to Jaroslav Hasek )
140 Agree. Hence running it through the filter of armchair members why most of us think it’s too close to call…
140 - even if it is close on first preferences (and I wouldn’t put it past lib dem members to vote, like turkeys for Christmas
) Campbell will clean up on second preferences.
You don’t seem to realise what a divisive figure Huhne would be and how, added to his clear presentational dificulties, this would be a disaster for the party.
Perhaps Lewis had something like Stalin’s treatment of the Ukraine in mind, Max and Fred.
re 134. Am I not allowed to have a view because I am a relative newcomer? That is not very welcoming. Is this some sort of exclusive club?
Activists - people who spend their leisure time knocking on doors, producing and delivering leaflets and raising money - want someone as leader who they think will be best for the party. They also want to feel that they matter in the selection process.
Ming was a popular choice early on but his limitations have become apparent as the campaign has gone on. He has looked as though he expected the leadership given to him on a plate and resents having to fight for it. That has done him a lot of harm.
Huhne is not perfect but he built up a good reputation making Oxford West and Abingdon into a winnable seat pree 1997 and is seen to have done as good a job as is possible as a Euro MP.
As a genuinely undecided voter in the Leadership election I am amused by the rather crude. attempts to talk up Ming’s campaign & talk down Chris’s. This campaign I still very close, My guess, and without more polls it has to be a guess is that they are roughly nec & neck in the higher 30’s with Hughes in the higher 20’s. All to play for and Simon’s second preferences to decide the final outcome.
On Kate Hoey, she’s no Tory, she is in fact old Labour, but rightwing old Labour. Runnng against her last year was fascinating, with us both copeating as to who was the most anti-Blair candidate. She ran as a rebel, the fact that she held me to a 6% swing was a reflection of her ability to persuade voters in vauxhall that they could still vote for Labour & against Blair at the same time.
In some sense what Blair represents is …
non ideological
common sense
dont change the system its the best there is
Individual Aspiration
small c ,one nation Conservatism i guess
52 - You rushed to judgement about my allegiances, not a good idea when, as you say, you are a relative newcomer. Anyway, no harm done.
Members thought that IDS would be good for the tories, look how wrong they were and out of touch with the voters. At least the tories appear to have learned their lesson the hard way.
Your pluses for Huhne hardly add up, for me, to someone capable of being a media friendly figurehead of a third party.
53 - I quite like Kate Hoey, one of few labour MPs that I could say that of, she’s not afraid to think for herself and that;s always good in my book.
90/95:
David Sanders did a paper based on th