Will activists still be “processing” postal votes this May?
February 22nd, 2006-
Who’ll lose most if “vote farming” is banned?
With the outcome of this May’s local elections taking on an increasing importance a key factor could be whether there is a clamp-down on party workers getting involved in the postal vote process. For when turnout drops to 30% or below winning the 
postal vote battle becomes even more crucial.
Now, according to a Guardian report, the Society of Local Authority Chief Executives are pressing the government to put a “national concordat” in place to stop activists interfering with the postal ballot process.
It is reported that ministers will announce a national voluntary agreement before May but those responsible for administering elections believe that there has to be compulsion.
For at the heart of the problem is that the process of voting by post is quite cumbersome for the voter and if the party machines do not get involved then far fewer people will cast their ballots in this way thus reducing turnout even further.
First you have to fill in forms to apply for a postal vote.
Then when you get your pack you have to mark the ballot paper and then put it into envelope number one.
Then you have to fill in a form and get your signature witnessed by someone who has to provide their address.
Finally you have to put all the bits together into envelope number two and ensure that it is put in the mail.
Is it any wonder that even at the General Election only three out of five people who had applied for postal votes in some seats actually used them.
But last May, in the post-Birmingham environment, activists were much less likely to visit those registered as postal voters to make sure that everything way OK.
For many on the postal list the problem of finding a witness can be critical. It is here where a normal follow-up by the party machine could be very helpful. An enthusiastic party worker can take away all the hassle of getting all the bits of paper together, act as a witness, and then ensure that the package is put in the post.
It is this process that those responsible for running elections want to stop. For there are fears that if the party workers call round to collect the postal ballot packages then they might put the elector under undue influence and even fail to send on those “not voting the right way”.
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Labour believes that it is the main beneficiary from moves to boost turnout and is opposed to anything that makes postal voting more difficult. But there could be a political cost if it’s not seen to be taking action after last year’s Birmingham vote fraud case.
My guess is that Ministers will resist a compulsory approach leaving open the possibility of another Birmingham. For if Labour is right about the electoral impact of easier postal voting this could affect the results on May 4th.
Mike Smithson
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I know its been said before, but the way you describe it, Mike, takes me right back to the days before the secret ballot
Of course, under the new “Henry VIII” Bill, ministers will be able to declare that the laws against bribery and intimidation are anti-competitive practices and therefore need to be scrapped -just so long as they think about what they’re doing for a bit, say for as long as it takes to drink a cup of tea.
See here: http://www.owen.org/blog/457
In order to increase turnout polling stations will this May keep Parliamentary election hours ie 7am to 10pm, thus allowing an extra two hours of voting. Here in Wakefield we will be counting on the Friday.
By what mechanism will there be a political cost? It is not about fairness, it is about winning. The ends justify the means.
Surely the most crucial question we face is how many marginal consistuencies were swung by fraudulent postal votes at the last general election - there was such a strong discrepancy between swings in marginals and non-marginals. Overwhelming evidence exists of postal vote fraud, as we have seen proven in Birmingham and elsewhere.
There has simply been no attempt to investigate. One thing is clear. When it comes to election Britain no longer has free and fair elections. Any central authority can rig elections with impunity simply through intercepting ballots after issue and before arrival at the counting centre.
Whilst I am sure we are all in favour of increasing participation and turnout - I think there is a participation/”quality” balance to be struck.
Casting your ballot is (to me) a serious and solemn decision. Any extension of voting to for example the internet, supermarkets, text voting, etc, risks dumbing down the process and choice to something with the levity of Big Brother. Democracy will not be served y a 95% turnout where 40% of the electorate vote according to the candidate’s hairstlye, choice of pet, or carefully managed “issue”.
Extending PVs has to my mind taken us some way down this dumbing down process - for 2 reasons. Firstly by making voting easier, I think it weakens the relationship between elector and candidate - if I’ve had to get out of bed, walk to the local school and vote in person, I have a stronger commitment to the candidate and the process.
Secondly, and perhaps more significantly for those of us here, PVs can be cast over a much longer period. There is a tendency (I’ve done it in the Tory leadship, and much of the comment is about similar practice in the Lib Dem campaign at present) of voting early as soon as the papers arrive. The whole point of a 3-6 week election campaign is to properly test the candidates and potential government over all the issues over a sustained period of time. Widespread PVs reduce this democtratic scrutiny.
If we all vote early by post, then elections and swings and issues will be so much less interesting for those of us who thirve on it all.
Of course the return of Rotten Boroughs through “postal vote farming” should worry us all. Or is that an EU-sponsored Diversification Scheme for farmers hit by FMD or Bird Flu?
Nuff said. Off now to earn some of the tax that pays for the whole sharabanc.
5 I take the point Phil, taht it would be possible to intercept PVs on a widescale. I think the reality is that a govt would not be able to get away with this kind of gerrymandering.
The local vote farming by activists is much more of a worry to the integrity of the process.
Now I really must go to work.
If we want to boost turnout we should hold elections over a couple of days. This postal voting issue is very depressing.
O/T Grandpa Ming is hardening big time on betfair. He’s gone from 3.0 to 2.68 in less than 48 hours, and CH is drifting to match.
Who’s piling in? The nearer the off, the more the clever money moves the market….
Interestingly I think this is one of the areas that the Lib Dems are behind the other parties in getting postal votes sorted out. Partly the Lib Dems do much less canvassing now (mainly but not entirely due to lower investment in phone banks) so they have less ability to recruit supporters onto postal votes.
The Conservatives do pretty well out of them since it does substantially raise pensioner votes - who tend to vote Conservative.
I think Labour’s problem is that postal votes don’t tackle the problem of their supporters not actually being motivated to vote. I think this is quite often what leads to abuses because party workers on the doorstep can’t understand why people wouldn’t have voted for a party they basically support - so they offer to help people do their vote. Obviously this then can easily cross the fine line from helpfulness to abuse.
There is an added complication that Mike’s introduction does not mention. Both the ballot paper and envelope number one are bar-coded as a fraud prevention measure. If a ballot paper is returned in the wrong envelope the vote is rejected. Last time around many households failed to recognise this and the ballots and envelopes would all get mixed up on the kitchen table. This resulted in many returned ballots being rejected, and it could be argued that these contained many pensioner (Conservative?) votes.
re 11. I do not think that a returning officer has the power to reject votes on these grounds. It should have been challenged by the agent.
8 - Turnout at local elections will only rise when and if local Government is allowed to make a difference to voters lives.
Both Labour and my party have so hobbled local councils that voters are entitled to think ‘whats the point?’ Nearly £4 out of every £5 a council spends is ring fenced by the Government and most councils now also get 75% of their funds in grant.
What with various audit commissions, standards boards, regional assambly and Prescot/government initiatives to satisfy it’s hardly surprising that the average councillor has to spend more time worrying about what Office of the Deputy Prime Minister wants and much less on his constituents wishes.
It really does make a difference who you have running a council as we all know and argue about; but it’s not enough of a difference to inspire 2/3rds of voters to vote, unfortunately.
I’m probably old-fashioned, but I don’t like postal vote. Go and vote at the polling station: you need just 15 minutes to do it!
credit Huhne with great spin operation - he isn’t going to win - but he now has name recognition (for a lib deb) and will get a good job in Ming’s shadow, shadow cabinet. Huhne however has made enemies.
re postal votes, shambolic system: if the voter cannot be bothered to go to a voting place then their vote should not count, simple as that!
Many disabled use postal votes because they can’t get into the polling centre.
Sorry to go against you traditionalists, but I find the postal voting very useful. In fact, at the last three elections, national and local, I have been away from home working. I am sure there are many others like me who now vote but in the past wouldn’t have been able to get to a polling station.
6: Completely agree. If people can’t be bothered to walk to the polling station why should we be interested in their vote? (Obviously PV for people who physically can’t get there is fine)
It would be interesting what the result of an election where people have to pass a ‘do you understand the issues?’ multi-choice exam first before they are allowed to vote! Just a little daydream…turnout would drop to about 3% at best.
18:If everyone had to pass a test before voting nobody would vote.
Re MC shortening. Probably more a case of value seekers, balancing their books than people backing on the basis of information.
18/19. Some candidates will probably fail to pass the test to vote for themself.
Re 18. 3 per cent. One per cent is more likely. Don’t under estimate people’s lack of knowledged. e.g. A woman I know, who is a clever graduate, once asked me: “So what’s all this Hutton inquiry all about then?”.
There was a reply that doubted the willingness by a central authority to rig a general election. Are you forgetting the 2004 murder of Dr Kelly?
The overwhelming majority of the UK public, the paramedics to first arrive at the scene, medical experts, and some independent figures within the security services all agree that it was a murder.
Tony Blair personally blocked a normal inquest through forcing through his ‘appointee’ and a ‘public inquiry’, with the explicit instruction that a public inquest was therefore ‘not necessary’. We don’t need to to watch ‘Yes, Prime Minister’ to know that these ‘inquiries’ are used to conceal wrong-doing through preventing an independent non-appointee from investigating. For example, no one bothered to mention that Hutton was a Northern Ireland diplock judge, where it was normal for judges to be on the security pay-roll.
Other problems point to wrong-doing. Such as the preservation of a ‘cold-war’ system of cash payments to journalists and editors for ’sending out the right message’. A
nd a formal system of censorship called the ‘D-notice system’ - introduced by a former Labour government to censor the press - which it succeeded in doing, and guarentee Labour election victories - which it failed to do (they lost in 1970). Take the background of Peter Mendelson and the private statments he was making to Fabian gatherings between 1992-1995 about the need to abandon democracy and establish a dictatorship.
Now set this in context with the refusal of police and security services to prevent Islamic terrorism, and an elaborate campaign of deceit to convey the impression that something was being done.
The truth was yet another censorship law ‘religious hatred’ was forced repeatedly through the Commons, while all meaningful counter-terrorism measures were ‘dropped’ on the grounds that they were ‘unworkable’. We now know for example that 41% (ICM) of Britain’s Islamic population actively support Islamic terrorism.
In particular we should note that the ‘religious hatred’ law becomes a nonsense when it is remembered that the Koran contains over 386 statements inciting religous hatred, murder, rape, etc aginst members of all other religious faiths - hate against other faiths is the foundation of the faith.
There are so many other examples of serious criminal wrong-doing in government, that no reasonable person could dismiss. It is high time that a private criminal prosecution was launched against members of this government.
16 and 17. The old system would have allowed people to get postal votes in each of those cases. The point is that the law was changed to allow anybody to have a postal vote rather than just those who needed one for “good” reason. That has massively increased the number of people using them; partly because the parties have been very proactive in recruiting postal voters.
The biggest indication that you leave in a truly democratic state is when the Electoral Commission is an unimportant, little heard of body. When the Electoral Commission becomes important, as it has done over the last few years, you’re on the road to tin-potness and stolen elections.
11. It is my understanding that a pragmatic approach was adopted here in Westmorland & Lonsdale during the 2004 county elections when it was recognised that collectively, the ballots and envelopes ultimately matched. However, I believe this approach was not applied during the 2005 general election when many (1100?) postal votes were rejected.
23 Phil Stewart. You are Jack Ruby and I claim 5 mafia horse heads !
Tell me you’re not a “Stewart” in real life and your name is in fact Philip Mountbatten Windsor Saxe Cobirg Gotha ??? …. c/o Buck House ??
On prices: I don’t think anyone has hard figures, but there seems to be a growing conviction (among people I talk to) that the order on first preferences will be 1 Ming 2 Huhne 3 Simon. The John Harris article in the Guradian also said this).
O/T There is a funny story from Bridgewater here.
17 – I think this is confusing two issues. It’s always been possible for people to get postal votes if they are genuinely unable to get to the polling station (due to illness, working away, etc.). Activists might disagree about the details, but I don’t think anyone much would argue that this is necessary. In the past the numbers were very small (maybe 1% of the total vote) so they were very rarely of much significance to the result.
The problem is that the government is now allowing (and, to a degree, positively encouraging) everyone to apply for a postal vote, and hence the numbers are going up vastly. By their nature, postal votes are far more open to abuse than voting at polling stations, and this becomes a real issue if we’re talking about (say) 20% of the total vote.
23 Phil. This site is run by Al Quaida mate. Careful what you say. There’s a system of interlinked computers based deep iin the Tota Bora mountains that . . . . (That’s quite enough conspiracy theory histeria. Ed)
re 28. I would not expect you to say anything else Peter - you being the web cheer-leader for Ming.
What a huge opportunity will be lost if Chris Huhne is not elected.
Ming sadly is just too old was seen at the Midlands hustings the other night.
This is not the time for a caretaker.
Farfield @ 11 - I’m afraid that the matching rule was removed by an order in council back in late 2003. This was replaced by a requirement to keep an audit trail - a requirement that Birmingham City Council along with several other items of law threw out of the window. I still remember my stand up screaming argument not to have a black rubbish bag of votes counted which was claimed to be a “ballot box” from a polling station. How you can accept obviously opened and resealed envelopes where the ballots have been altered with Tippex and then all filled in with very neat crossed done with a ruler and a red pen, I do not know.
Personally, I understand the reason for the removal of the requirement when papers within a household get mixed up, but when ballots don’t match which are from different households which I saw a considerable number of in 2004 in Birmingham, then I get very worried.
It will be even easier to commit fraud this year in Birmingham, we have been told that no list of postal voters will be issued to candidates/agents until at least 24 hours after applications have closed. This will make the policing of the postal vote (and early campaigning for the postal vote) incredibly difficult. Even if you can show that something is dodgy, the police aren’t interested and the elections office are only concerned with turnout.
It’s sad to say this but the postal vote problems in highlighted in the two wards in Birmingham could have easily been applied to at least five or six other wards. The worst thing is that many voters don’t actually regard it as wrong, they think they are showing their loyalty by handing over unopened postal voting packs to the vote farmers.
Mind you, if they stopped postal voting, the fraudsters would only go back to personation like they used to (and that there was some evidence of in 2005 in one seat).
31 - These were the West Midland hustings where John Hemming decided to support Ming?
http://johnhemming.blogspot.com/2006/02/hemming-endorses-campbell.html
Ming is the great opportunity for a credible leader and a united team, CC. Huhne may in time be an effective frontbench spokesman. but last time I looked he had only spoken on 17 occasions in the House of Commons, mostly questions on minor constituency issues.
33.”These were the West Midland hustings where John Hemming decided to support Ming?”
well, you should be a bit worried by it!
I have more positive opinin of John Hemming that you, Andrea!
Re: Ming pulling back. BBC Ten O’Clock News profiled his candidature last night. Came over well; probably had a small effect. Huhne’s profile tonight I believe. Would read too much into these small changes though.
Andrea @ 34 - I voted for Ming, when I heard John endorsed him I wondered what I had done wrong.
35. well, Peter, my main aim has never been to rank high among your opinion leaders
37. Iain, I use to have that reaction when I agree with Diane Abbott
33 - Huhne speaking 17 times. He has only been in Parliament for 9 months - 2 of which were summer recess; there has also been Christmas recess. This means he has spoken at least once a fortnight. There are 650ish MPs. I doubt that many of them speak so frequently in Parliament. As for speaking on constituency matters, it is a highly marginal seat, so I don’t blame his doing this in his first session.
Andrea @ 38 - I do agree with John on quite a lot of issues and he’s been a doughty fighter on the subject of vote fraud. He is at his very best, which can be very, very good, when he gets his teeth into a campaign.
Oh, one thing I forgot to mention, do not assume that all postal vote farming is done by political parties or political parties supporter, it is quite a bit more complex than that.
40. Iain, I think I agree with him about postal fraud too.
22 - I would have though even having heard of the Hutton Inquiry would put her in a minority!
It never ceases to amaze me how many people don’t understand the difference between their local councillor(s) and “the Council”. From personal experience, there is nothing more frustrating than having an elector say they are not voting for a sitting councillor because of something the Council has done, despite the fact that the councillor is from an opposition party.
40 SBS fair points - and I don’t criticise him for speaking on constituency issues. That is what all MPs do - especially new MPs, who have to entrench themselves in their seat.
Many new MPs have spoken much more often though (Howarth nearly 60 times iirc).
Personally I would not feel happy voting for someone untested on big parliamentary occasions. But I can understand that for other people it is less of an issue.
43 - no doubt there is a list of the most frequent and infrequent speakers that Andrea can produce…
44 I’m surprised he has not done so alrady!
44. you can get that info from http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mps/
42 Jeremy, maybe they hope that another candidate would be able to persuade other coucillors to their opinion, which the sitting candidate has failed to do?
10 - I can only speak for myself, but certainly in Torridge and West Devon postal voting benefited the Conservatives. In total they probably put an extra 1,000 votes on top of the Tory majority. 10,000 postal ballots were issued, of which over 8,000 were returned, meaning a turnout of 80%. I was at the count, and IIRC the postal vote counting was left until last, when it became immediately apparent that the Tories had won because both parties knew that the Lib Dems would get hammered in the postal ballot (and the fact the Lib Dem agent ran out the of the hall in tears).
Anyway it was always known well before the count that in Torridge the Conservatives were always going to benefit from the postal votes, mainly because the Tories had been signing up postal voters for years whilst the Lib Dems, while I wouldn’t say that they didn’t try, never made a concerted attempt to sign up their supporters until the general election, and even then their attempts were a little half-hearted. However maybe in other constituencies it was different but that is what happened in my constituency at least.
46 - Unlike the so-called Professor, Andrea is a credit to academia and robust, rigorous and timely reseach. I may even offer him a tenured position
44- Among new LD MPs:
Browne spoke in 20 debates
Burt 13
Clegg 17
Farron 17
Featherstone 23
Goldswhorty 20
Hemming 30
Horwood 33
Howarth 37
Huhne 17
Hunter 10
Kramer 28
Leech 13
Mulholland 17
Rogerson 17
Swinson 30
Mark Williams 17
Stephen Williams 12
Willott 13
Howarth speaks less of then that I thought. Hunter obviously has been less time in the Hof C than the rest.
Given the evidence clear evidence from Birmimngham and the advice from those responsible for running elections that the practice of ‘farming’ (i.e. party activists and helpers taking any part in the actual process of voting or returning a voting paper to the election office) there can be no other logical or impartial decision but to make it illegal.
Although I am an old fashioned polling station voter myself, I can just about accept postal voting to encourage and allow anyone who wants to to participate in our electoral system even though it allows individuals to bring more pressure on family members to vote a particular way compared to a vote at the polling station.
If the government does not make it illegal I can only conclude that Labour believes that they will gain from leaving the loophole open. I find that a totally unacceptable stance and hope other parties will campaign to make the practice illegal.
“less of then” should read “less often”
Ballot-box voting is private voting in a public area.
Postal voting is (potentially) public voting in a private area.
Of course it boosts turnout. I believe Saddam Hussein used to get a decent turnout every time he was re-elected.
50 - thanks!
51. peter, he spoke in 37 debates, but he had probably made more interventions in each debate, so it’s likely he spoke at least 60 times, but not in 60 different debates.
Peter Pidgeon, conjures up all sorts of images!
Joking apart, Peter knows as we all do that nobody knows what is happening in the Lib Dem leadership, it is all guesswork and suppostion. Last night I was talking to two who went to that Midlands area hustings or whatever it is called, and their impression is not Peter’s. Again nobody knows.
Story, for what it is worth, is that MC left early to catch a plane to Scotland from Luton, the other two stayed and most of the interest appeared to them to be in CH. So if MC was not there,you cannot make a judgement about that, like everything else at the moment.
56 Thank you - but you are too kind. If Howarth has spoken in 37 debates he probably hasn’t spoken much more than 40 times altogether.
48. What a great story. Some of the toys out of the pram stuff you get at counts is great, isn’t it?
55. Ah, Danny Alexander spoke in 32 debates and Rowen in 29.
since we’re here, the Commons vote’s attendance of new LD MPs is:
Alexander: 77.6%
Browne 75.9%
Burt 78.8%
Clegg 54.1%
Farron 72.4%
Featherstone 75.9%
Goldswhorty 75.9%
Hemming 70.6%
Horwood 80.6%
Howarth 87.6%
Huhne 72.4%
Hunter 78%
Kramer 71.2%
Leech 72.9%
Mulholland 61.8%
Rogerson 80%
Rowen 62.4%
Swinson 78.8%
Mark Williams 73.5%
Stephen Williams 88.8%
Willott 73.5%
Julian @ 54 - Saddam was an amateur, the late Enver Hoxha used to get 101% turnouts
david @ 57 - Chris Huhne went on to an event in inner-city Birmingham where he went down very well and I understand that I will be receiving several membership forms tomorrow because of it. Ming to his credit had done two events in the City earlier that day. We are told the Revd Hughes visited Birmingham, but the ordinary Birmingham activists were never told anything about it. Well, I suppose there’s only about 2,000 members in the City.
59 - I remember back in student days when all the returning officers committee were paid up members of a certain political party. I don’t want to labour the point, but it was not fair…
47 - Well maybe Anna, but it seems a bit harsh for voters to punish a councillor for not persuading another party to change their policy.
Andrea - Id on’t suppose you know how often Cameron had spoken in the House of Commons before he became leader?
Of course, the other reason I’m not keen on PVs is that, as an activist, it makes telling and knocking up so much harder.
These are rapidly becoming forgotten skills in large swathes of the country (too few activists mainly) but are essential parts of getting out the vote.
Mind you, do people actually think voting in person is any better?
I’ve seen a few things in polling stations which have made my blood run cold and a lot of staff with incredibly poor knowledge of what they are supposed to do.
64. Peter, since 2005 GE he spoke in 16 debates. 8 were after the leadership win (7 PMQ and 1 debate about European Council)
66 - Stop teasing us Iain and travail us with tales of horror from the polling stations of Birmingham
43 - I dare say most LibDems would like a leader who has been tested on big parliamentary occasions. Trouble is both Ming and Simon have already failed the test and Huhne is still wearing L-plates. We won’t know till later whether Huhne is the LibDems’ Cameron or their IDS.
66 - That’s certainly true. It seems that many local authorities (but by no means all) seem to have forgotten the purpose of elections, don’t see the point if the political leadership isn’t going to change or just see elections as a administrative inconvenience.
I remember being at a London Borough count where all the wards were being contested, and the Chief Exec simply decided to bypass the review of disputed ballots and didn’t ask any of the agents whether they would like a recount, even in wards with majorities of 6 and 30…
69- fairly ridiculous John L, Ming has made many big speeches - notably on Iraq - and these have been successful - this is one of the reasons he has so much support from MPs. And Simon too is a pretty effective performer.
There’s too many to tell to be honest.
As a sample:
I’ve seen presiding officers trying to sling out correctly appointed polling agents, agents and even the candidate. I’ve even seen that happen where people not correctly appointed from the other parties have been inside the station working it.
I’ve seen people being allowed to canvass and hand out palm cards inside the polling station.
I’ve seen women hand over blank voting papers to fill in to men and when I exploded in a fit of rage, I was told it was a cultural practice and I was being racist.
I’ve seen people showing a polling agent their vote.
I’ve seen presiding officers ignore me when I’ve issued a challenge to a voter. I’ve seen presiding officers ignore the law on things like tendered ballots.
I’ve seen the police called on tellers who are outside the gates of the polling station. I’ve seen tellers in places where they shouldn’t me (including at least once, some of mine :-().
Before the new easy-fraud postal system, I’ve seen mini-buses of young men going from polling station to polling station with some old geezer giving them fresh poll cards at each station.
I’ve seen polling cards not delivered to flats, just dumped at the bottom of the stairs ready to be scooped up.
I’ve seen binbags used as ballot boxes “because it was full”.
I’ve seen gangs of people intimidating voters outside polling stations. I know this because I’ve had voters to say they wanted to go and vote but were too scared.
I didn’t see, but was told that there was a small pitched battle outside a couple of polling stations in 2005, I’ve certainly seen a polling station where it was very close to kicking off.
I’ve watched an election lost by 24 votes where it was proved that at least 30 voters in person were dead, in prison or out of the country on the day. We screwed up the election petition, sadly, and as usual the powers that be were not interested.
I could go on. I smoke, on average, 6-8 cigarettes a day. I buy three full packs for polling day. Thank goodness, I have a nice quiet ward of my very own this year.
The one thing I will say, is that when we had counts done at ward level as opposed to the 2004 grand mess-up, the counting staff and officers there were brilliant, efficent and knowledgable.
70 - Oh yes, the grand central count cock-up in Birmingham. No recounts offered and pretty much none allowed “because the weren’t the staff”. The only one that did happen was Perry Barr, two days later and I suspect there was some political favoritism there. Didn’t work
I’m not really sure what the relevance is of figures showing how often MPs attend and speak in parliament. My impression has always been that many of the MPs who speak most often are simply the ones who like the sound of their own voice. Obviously, they should be there when it matters, and where their contribution might make a difference, but realistically that’s not the case most of the time. If an MP is not present in parliament it’s quite possibly because they’ve got something more important to do elsewhere.
74.”If an MP is not present in parliament it’s quite possibly because they’ve got something more important to do elsewhere. ”
like being in the Big Brother House?
I mean voting in commons division is part of their job.
72. Depressing. I really thought that kind of thing only went on in Ulster…what are the solutions, in your view, Iain?
72. A remarkably similar list to this one:
http://www.monitor.co.ug/oped/oped02222.php
I see that the local press in Reading have given a serious kicking to some Lib Dem activists who had the temerity to criticise the competence of the Borough’s Electoral Registration Department.
Fred @ 76 - Rooting out the complacency culture in the Elections Office, decent training for polling day staff (including a bit of a check that they are reasonably apolitical), decent civics lessons in schools and the police actually enforcing the law would help a lot. Having polling day staff being able to speak major community languages would be useful as well.
72 - oh to be in Birmingham, now election time is here
But how much of that could be avoided with properly trained, consiencious Presiding officers with appropriate powers?
The Birmingham postal vote fraud was obviously stunningly incompetent (get caught in a car park with lots of ballot papers, tippex them out and fill them in identically, etc, etc), but if someone carried out a postal ballot fraud competently it would be much harder to identify than all the things you’ve spotted at ballot stations.
79. Thanks Iain…that’s quite a comprehensive list. Wouldn’t a photographic or fingerprinted polling card help too? Having said that the postal vote problems wouldn’t be solved that way…
I think some people manning polling stations do not have a clue. I remember being a teller in 2001, and being told by the staff at the polling station that turnout was extremely high. In fact the bloke was at a loss to explain why it was so much higher than the previous year. I had to explain that it may have been because there was a general election this year.
Dodgy election tactics - rather depressing. I do remember being written to by my Labour MP on House of Commons paper asking me to vote Labour in local elections. In fact, I believe the leader of the official opposition on the (Labour run) council received the same letter.
Re Lib Dem hustings… I don’t think we should imagine they will have a huge impact on the final result.
I think there have been about 20 hustings events. Bit hard to estimate how many members will have attended any one of them: let’s, for sake of argument, say 6,000 members.
If turn-out’s c.50,000 (two-thirds of the 73,000 members), that means 44,000 members will not have seen the candidates hust (except on Question Time).
This contest will be decided by the candidates’ national profiles. (Which is why I still think Ming has the edge, and Simon will do better than some here think.)
Anthony @ 80 - Well, if you want to come up and be a polling agent for the day
To be honest, we know where there is a lot more fraud than the prosecuted 2004 fraud, but the way that the law stands, it’s just a) too expensive and b) too complicated to actually do anything about it. Now, of course, this is where the full majesty and power of the police should come in, but does it b*****y.
However, give us dates of birth and signatures/NI numbers and things should get a lot better postal voting. I’m all for postal voting, but in order for it to work we must have
i) A marked postal register after the event
ii) Signatures DOB/NI on the register
iii) Postal votes registers on reasonable demand, not at the whimsy and convienience of the Elections Office.
Fred @ 81 - Oh, the photo polling card wouldn’t help that much, cultural taboos you know. I honestly think that the old dab of indelible ink isn’t a bad idea, fingerprints are a bit complex for most people to read and the machine reading technology would be a tad expensive.
Is there a prediction competition for the LD race? Sorry if I’ve missed it.
re 71. The reason Ming has so many MPs signed up is that when they did so they thought there was going to be a coronation. He’s also a popular choice amongst those, like Clegg and Davy, who did not have the guts to put themselves forward this time and worry that Huhne will block their chances.
His signed up supporters are about as loyal as those Tory MPs who went public for David Davis before the Tory conference and then did not even vote for him.
Ming is the no-change establishment candidate whose main concern is his own ego and not the party. He thinks he is “owed” the leadership. No wonder the activists are going for Huhne.
84. ‘cultural taboos’…it’s a bit worrying when these start to override basic democratic principles, isn’t it? In reality this looks like a convenient way to excuse fraud. I wonder, how will ID cards get off the ground if this problem is as serious as you suggest (not that I support ID cards) ?
86 - It’s a huge mistake to think of Campbell as the no-change candidate. He has been more forthright than any of the other candidates in arguing for fewer, better defined policies, whereas Huhne has tickled the tummies of activists principally with reheated environmental policies and Hughes has come up with little other than misty-eyed staring into the middle distance where he can apparently see a Lib Dem MP in every town and a Commons majority of 350.
Your criticism that Ming thinks he is “owed” the leadership makes no sense. He certainly thinks he is the best person for the job, but that makes him no different to any other candidate. His campaign has been energetic and it shows he is very much “up for it”.
Ming kicked off the campaign with a good list of backers (like Davis) but unlike Davis he continued to pick up additional supporters during the campaign and as far as I am aware has had no defectors away from his campaign. I would have expected defections if anyone entertained serious doubts - it would be relatively easy (and be a potentially rather astute move) to say “I backed Ming and still think he has a lot to contribute, but that was before the campaign got going and Chris emerged.” That hasn’t happened because Ming does indeed have the full confidence of his colleagues.
77. I particularly like the suggestion that you should have the best swimmers in the village on standby in case the ballot box gets thrown in the river.
James @ 89 - I would not like to think what would happen to any swimmers in the River Cole even if they avoided the shoals of shopping trolleys.
I normally manage to find quite a few oddities in the postal ballot list and it is important to be able to spend some time analysing this.
I patrolled my own ward in 2004 when hundreds of votes were stolen or farmed in different ways.
The underlying problem is that the system is too easy to fiddle. Postal votes are inherently flawed and need controlled and scrutinised circumstances under which they are cast and then returned to be counted.
(cf a Polling station).
Ok ….. news from the Lib Dem snooze fest …… what’s happened to the good old days, alak and alas only a few weeks back of sex s(c)andals and rampant skullduggery ?!?!
The Mingers grow steadily but noticeably confident that Lady Elspeth will be hosting the odd soiree as chatelaine of Chateau Libdemery …. no tofu in sight. A win on the first ballot me thinks.
Huhneistas heralding the first whiff of expecting a “prominent shadow cabinet position” ……… “in the unlikely event of our man not winning.” Mmmhhhhhh !!
The Rev Hughes is still swinging the incense down the bearded aisles and has more front than Operation Barbarossa …… but his followers whisper in the nave that he’s failed again and is behind that upstart Hampshire curate.
Incidentally election fraud happens in most if not all large cities. Birmingham is unique in that we are doing things about it.
(Hence the number of election petitions. It is nice to have one that I wrote succeed as well.)
92 Moi. 91/93 JH. Sandwiched between John Hemming ….. I spoke too soon of the absence of Lib Dem scandal.
In return for your support of the Ming Dynasty are you expecting the Shadow Cabinet post for Family Values ……. a finer choice I cannot comprehend !
The cultural excuse about photo ID is the desire not to expose the face of a woman to a man and being ‘immodest’. And it is soon dealt with. Women go to women tellers and with them there can be no excuse.
We can do as Saudi does. And I assure you there is no way out of proving your ID or being searched for security reasons there.
I think the ‘cultural problem’ of this sort which Iain mentions might well largely fade as a widespread issue if challenged in this way in all security situations.
95. Yes as I suggested these ‘cultural taboos’ just look like an excuse to commit fraud and abuse the democratic rights of the ‘cultural’ groups concerned (as well as those of everyone else).
93 John, the link to your blog appears to have died…
75 – Yes, it is part of an MPs job, but only one part. Given that the government can guarantee a majority on any vote unless there’s a major backbench rebellion, and a fair proportion of votes are fairly uncontroversial anyway, is it really more important to be present in the chamber for (say) an adjournment debate on local government funding in Poole (to use an example coming up this week), than dealing with problems / issues raised by constituents?
Unless, of course, you’re from Poole.
Highland LibDem politician in drink shocker. It must be catching…
98. I don’t pretend they should have 100% Commons attendance, but I think that all MPs should have at least more than a 50% attendance (some of them don’t have it)
In some other countries there are more reliable ways to vote in advance in the case you aren’t able to vote in the actual election day. I wonder, why these haven’t been considered as alternatives to the postal voting?
Jack W - good to hear from you. Whilst I have every confidence in the result, have been just a little worried that I (and Peter) have been the only ones believing the Ming is likely to win.
The mood music on here for the last few days is strengthing my resolve not to cut my losses and wait for a payout next week.
If we are wrong can I borrow a fiver?
99 Stephen B. And a Campbell to boot …..
Jack W is sober and 103% proof.
102 Icarus. My dear sun worshipper …. order in the factor 25 and slip, slop away.
Remember markets are a guide ….. you only have to look back at Dunfermline and how piss poor they were at predicting the result, even minutes from the declaration.
All I’ve seen and heard over the past weeks has convinced me that looking past the fog of battle that this is in the bag for Ming. As for my own positions unless the Rev is Lazarus I’m on a very tidy (malt restocking) profit !!
As for you borrowing a fiver …. I claim Scottish National Heritage Exemption !!
100 - Fair enough. I agree they should probably be there a reasonable proportion of the time.
99 - particularly enjoyed the bit - “The councillor is also accused of having wilfully vomited, urinated and defecated in an attempt to purge her body of alcohol, all with the intent of avoiding conviction.”
106. here’s a picture of the councillor:
http://www.highland.gov.uk/landaintra/members/photos/bigphotos/campbell.jpg
107 - THANKS!
108. are you now imagining her doing what she did?
107- meant to go on to say I am trying not to build up a picture of her wilful defecation.
No doubt Rik etc will say it is a mis-spelling and it is actually a high profile defection, not defecation.
110
106 - Yes, I noticed that and wondered if this was as well as “conducting herself in a disorderly manner and breaching the peace in a police car” or part of the process.
107 Andrea. THANKS …. NOT !!
Is it a drag Queen ?!?!
94-JackW
‘In return for your support of the Ming Dynasty are you expecting the Shadow Cabinet post for Family Values ……. a finer choice I cannot comprehend !’
I think that slot is already reserved for Mark Oaten.
114 -
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_m_z/deborah_orr/article346922.ece
114 john. Indeed not ….. Oaten hopes to retain the Homo Secretary portfolio … but bi the bi has “stiff” competition from the Reverend Bermondsey.
Does Mr Oaten know the councillor from Kinlochshiel? I think we should be told.
117. I was drinking and I almost threw everything on my screen!
117 Stephen B. Is she/he a Lib Dem …. or is this another example of cross party co-operation ??
119. Jack, we missed you in those days when you’re MIA!
Re #60: A very Blair-esque attendence figure from Clegg there. Obviously future PM material if he’s only making it to just over half the votes already [before the novelty has worn off].
107. New election poster?
Lib Dems - wilfully vomiting, urinating and defecating here!
115. Turns out the story about Mrs Oaten taking him back are bunkum. (Yes that’s an ‘n’ not an ‘m’)
Anyway, a local hack of my acquaintence was called by her this a.m. to describe the Mail and Telegraph articles talking of reconciliation as “completely made up.” I’m told PA are running the story now but I don’t have access to the wire. I guess it’ll be covered tomorrow.
The story was written on the basis that he’d been seen back at the house. 2 & 2 were added to make 20 but unfortunately the journos had missed the fact that he’d been living there for days.
120 Andrea. Thank you Andrea ….. but most of us have a small snatch of real life outside of the site.
123 GeorgeH. Careful Mr Oatens under bidder ….. surely you’re not suggesting that the Tory press make up stories ??
124. Jack, harsh
125 Andrea. “.. harsh ”
I think not Andrea. When was the last Friday night you spent at the “Ginger la Grange Go-Go Disco” ??
126. Jack, you were.
you know I prefer to stay here reading your posts about future scandals. naturally none of them appeared in the press….but that’s another story……
127 Andrea.
BTW … Bromley were very busy in recent weeks ….. the government says there were 3,648 civil partnerships in the first 6 weeks since the legislation came into effect……. and Max and I were not in sight.
Jack W. Heaven forbid no. It must all have been very confusing for the shivering freelancer waiting outside Cheriton School ready to shove a notepad in front of the Oaten children. A quite understandable mistake of course.
128. Jack, I couldn’t go to the “Ginger la Grange Go-Go Disco” this friday: I had to see figure skating! I thought you could have supposed it!
Anyway, more men than women. Brighton and Hove naturally tops the list, followed by Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea.
129 GeorgeH. Is there any truth in the rumours that you are defecting and joining Mark in his new business venture :
“Oaten’s Purge A Tory”
Political Colonic Irrigation for Anal Retentive Constituents.
Bowel Time and Motion Management and Detox Probes !
…………………………………….
130 Andrea. Gasp…. Shock … Horror …..
Andrea glued to figure skating ….. sadly he misses his double axel and falls on his triple salko.
Marks for Andrea :
Political Content. 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.9
Arsetistic Merit. 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0
The Rutland judge couldn’t see over the barrier to vote !!
131. Jack, they changed the scores! it’s not done anymore in that way.
No you can fall over and still win!
133. if the others falls too….then a silver medal is enough for me like the Chinese pair (that poor girl!). But then missing teh double axel and falling on the triple salko is too much!
131. Jack, I’m disappointed you didn’t include the comment of the judge of Wincherster: “sh*t”.
132 Andrea. How do they score now …. and is Birmingham involved ??
133 Icarus. Like Charlie Kennedy ??
135 - I think they now used a form of STV.
Jack. I was asked to put down a deposit for the new venture but found myself a bit short at the time.
136. the judges don’t even know if their score is selected. But the Italian commentator is too busy to explain who has slept with who…sometimes I wonder if they’re talking about the Libdems!
As a member of the Kennedy tendency rather than any of the other Lib Dem factions…..yes!
137 GeorgeH. “…… but found myself a bit short at the time.”
Ah ….. all life comes back to Hunky Dinky Dunky !
138 Andrea. You are the Italian Skating Judge and I claim 5 sequinned red leotards for a resident of Bow !
128 - How many times Jack - it isn’t going to happen! Maybe if you weren’t married and if I didn’t have a girlfriend we could have worked something out but I’m afraid my ladyfriend isn’t ready for an ‘open’, or indeed ‘Oaten’ relationship.
Incidentally I may have found someone you can convert to the Jacobin cause. Catherine Maxwell-Stuart - former Labour candidate (twice) for T,E&L and a pupil at my old school. She lives in Scotlands oldest stately home (Traquair) where the Bear Gates won’t be opened untill a Stuart returns to the throne. The House also has brewery and they hold an annual Beer festival!
They are listening to you Jack - Ming now 2.54 on Betfair - buy now whilst stocks last!!
My theory is that now the votes are cast the Huhne backers will liquidate their positions - we will see.
MC 2.54 on BF
CH out to 1.71
Tide is turning ?
141 Max. Spoil sport !
Max ….. the “Jacobin cause” ….. You are Robespierre and I claim 5 Public Safety Committees and 5 Supreme Beings !!
BTW The Baroness of Traquair …. for it is she brews a very fine ale ….. incidentaly named “Jacobite” …… and rather wonderful it is too !!!!!!
128/41. The number quoted by Jack was just for England and Wales. You scotts are axcluded. Ah, Bromley had less than 5 partnerships registred.
Actually can get 2.92 on the Ming - Huhne forecast you might as well take that - can I interest anyone in this shirt I am wearing?
146. Oh God, Icarus, what shirt are you wearing? is this a secret code message for Jody?
has she revealed her voting intentions or not in the end?
No Andrea, I dont think Jody has revealed herself yet, though perhaps she could come and help me in my byelection! The shirt reference was to my selling my shirt to place yet another bet on a “certainty” - do I never learn?
148 Icarus. Take some of those hair shirts out of the closet !!
Off to small dinner this evening with Charlie (sic) Bean - chief economist at the Bank of England.
Any one got any advice?
123:
By Martin Halfpenny, PA
The wife of Mark Oaten today said she needs time and space to decide whether her 13 year marriage to the MP will survive.
Belinda Oaten said she does not know what will happen after allegations her husband paid rent boys for sex acts over a six month period were published in the News of the World last month.
The couple, who have two children, have been spending time together at their home in Bramdean near Winchester following the allegations which Mr Oaten apologised for and called “errors of judgment”.
But Mrs Oaten, 37, dismissed reports that the couple were back together as “unhelpful and harmful”.
She said: “This extraordinary situation I am in will take some time for me to resolve and this process is being damaged by the continued media interest.”
She added: “I would ask again for some privacy to protect my family and relatives and appeal to the press to behave in a responsible manner.
“I again make it clear I will not be giving any interviews.”
The state of the couple’s marriage has been the focus of media attention since the News of The World story forced Winchester MP Mr Oaten, 41, to resign as Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesman just days after he pulled out of the leadership contest for his party.