Were the Indy and the Guardian at the same meeting?
February 25th, 2006-
Is Ming Campbell at 6/4 the value bet?
The seemingly never-ending saga that is the Lib Dem leadership contest takes on another bizarre twist this morning with both the Guardian and Independent reporting on separate surveys of attendees at Thursday’s London hustings meeting.
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The challenge for anybody trying to predict the outcome is that the two ex-broadsheet papers come out with completely
different findings. The Guardian spoke to 422 people who were there and found Huhne had 152 first preferences (36%). Ming 124 (29%) and Hughes 87 (21%). Of those they spoke to 59 (14%) were still undecided. There was an almost even split of Hughes second preferences which, if this “sample” is representative would give the race to the former MEP.
But the Independent’s survey talking to 100 people at the same meeting overwhelmingly points to a victory for Ming Campbell. The acting leader had 51 giving him their first preference with 31 to Simon Hughes and just 18 to Chris Huhne.
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Neither of these could be described as proper opinion polls because nobody knows whether those who attend a meeting in Central London on a cold February evening are an accurate sample
So with just five days to go before the result is declared this has become a very hard contest to call. The only full poll of party members to be published was funded by a Huhne supporter and was carried out by YouGov from February 7-9th. The only problem with this survey is that the vote intention question was put last and it could be argued that this skewed the result.
Another YouGov survey was carried out privately a few days beforehand and we have only had a partial disclosure of what it found. In a bizarre act confirmed by Peter Kellner of YouGov an anonymous poster on this site sent us the second preferences findings which showed that Campbell was well ahead with the second preferences of Hughes supporters.
While all this has been going on there have been the suggestions that the betting prices are somehow “being managed” - that someone with very deep pockets is using her/her money to maintain the Huhne-Campbell prices within a very narrow range.
My current view: Both Campbell and Huhne have an evens chance. Campbell prices beyond 1/1 are good value and Huhne prices tighter than that level are bad value. I am maintaining an even book between the two front runners.
Betting prices here.
Mike Smithson
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If evens each of two is correct then we are saying it is a 50/50 call. The question is: is that because we have solid evidence that the votes are equally split, or is it that what evidence we do have is weak and unilluminating?
The conflicting outcomes in two papers remind us that people do not arrange themselves randomly at LibDem hustings (or anywhere) and that journalists are not trained in sampling techniques. Simon Hughes came second in the Independent poll: might a third newspaper polling in a different corner of the room have placed Hughes first?
You can’t read Mike. The Grauniad survey was of 422 members, with FPs = Huhne 152 first preference votes (36%). Sir Menzies garnered 124 (29%) and Simon Hughes, the party president, 87 (21%). But 59 (14%) of the Lib Dems were still undecided.
That makes it a 5% CI give or take - and a very good sample of known members - although there is the so called ‘armchair factor to be taken into account.
I think that it is a reasonably solid survey.
John re 1. I think that what I am saying is the latter - there are question marks over each bit of evidence we have.
The published poll was designed for a specific partisan donor but both it and the other survey that was carried out had Campbell ahead with the Simon Hughes second preferences
The betting gives the appearance of being managed
The newspaper surveys are contradictory.
I am significantly influenced in my betting by the actual declared support for Ming. He seems to be well ahead on this measure. I agree we have only limited evidence of what the footsoldiers and stay at home Lib Dem members will do but I would have thought tht Hughes and Campbell would benefit from higher name recognition here.
I would expect 45 Ming 35 Huhne and 20 Hughes on first pref with Ming getting enough seconds to see him home. At worst it is 50/50. I find the betting strange, I wish I had put something on Huhne at good odds as Mike did - but the slight move on IG back to Ming is encouraging (the IG market on Lib Dems is now closed presumably for the weekend!)
But Mike - you got it wrong on the Grauniad poll. It had a sample size of 422. That makes it roughly the same size as the YouGov poll and it got the same result!
sorry Mike delete my post at 5 they seem to have merged into 3!!
Application of Bayes would be useful to update your prior assessment of CH winning with the new evidence.
re 2. Paul - the Guardian survey is a sample of those who attended a meeting on a cold Thursday evening in Central London - nothing more and nothing less. You might think that that is representative - I don’t and have adjusted my financial positions accordingly.
…and what have I read wrongly?
Mike, your headline is suggesting that the polls are to be given equal merit. But the Guardian poll is of 422 members, the Independent one is in their own words “A straw poll” and is of only 100 members.
Reading the tealeaves it is starting to look like Hulhne might just nick it. According to radio 4 the Indepenent is now backing him-having previously recommended Ming-and the larger surveys also seem to point in his direction. My money’s on Ming but from a partizan Labour point of view I think a line up of Hulhne, Cameron and Brown would give an important USP to Brown.
4 “I am significantly influenced in my betting by the actual declared support for Ming.” Oh for goodness’ sake, Icarus, put a sock in it. You’ve been saying the same thing every day for weeks. It’s hardly surprising that a lot of MP’s would come out for Campbell at the early stage that they did. Huhne wasn’t in the running then.
“I find the betting strange…” oh, here we go again. For once and for all, get this. There have been a lot of people betting that Huhne will win. Period.
Mike. Sorry - you gave the impression that the Guardian survey and the Indy one were comparable in methodology - you said ’spoke to’ for the Guardian one - they interviewed by self-completion survey. I also didn’t make that point clear. I am just saying that the Guardian appears far more scientific and far more representative of that meeting than the Indy one - you can’t give them equal weighting - i.e. it seems that the Grauniad one is a self completion survey, whereas the Indy appears to be’show of hands’.
The two surveys done of any size that we can see data for FPs gives Huhne a lead of roughly the same amount. We are working on sketchy info here, but there is little for Ming to cling to other than the Grauniad’s poll of 46 party chairs which had him 20 - 18 ahead. Why there has been any ’swing to Ming’ on the betting on that kind of info is beyond me.
So what can we finally say. Only two published surveys of LD members with samples over 400 have been seen. Both give Huhne a 5%ish lead over Ming on FPs. Anything else is fluff and hearsay.
re 10 What USP would that be Roger? That he did not go to public school and Oxford like the other two and Blair?
Tim. Doesn’t that just change the margin of error by 1 or 2% or have I been wasting my time with the PB.COM psephologists for the last few months?
No Mike! That Brown is the only one of the three who hasn’t just come down the river on a bicycle!
re 12. I agree that the Guardian appears to be a better survey - both both cannot be compared with a proper of Lib Dem members from an organisation that has proved itself with such surveys.
The “sample”, if you can deem it with such a term, on Thursday night was self-selecting and restricted to those that can get into central London for an evening meeting.
Roger, may be dangerous to think it will be Brown.
Labour may try to paint Campbell as a “toff”, remember the recent PMQ, they may find it more difficult to ridicule Huhne, as their leading politician is quite wealthy as well.
I have said before about this leadership contest nobody knows and these two papers and their reports simply confirm this.
In this Region of the country, talking to some councillors etc
you would think Huhne is winning, but ordinary members may well be Campbell, maybe even Hughes.
My 10p went for Huhne three/four weeks ago because he was such a good long price, no other reason.
14 Roger - surely the words “Straw poll” suggest - just that. I read that as saying that it can’t be relied upon at all.
It doesn’t make much sense to me but apparently if you question 200 out of a room of 1000 or 400 your margin of error is only a few percentage points less. I guess this applies to a straw poll as much as a scientific one even though straw polls are unreliable.
David. In a choice between ‘Dracula’ and the ‘Spinner who invaded Iraq’ it wasn’t difficult to see why people were attracted to the alcoholic. With two wealthy PR men in place it’s not difficult to see the attraction of the honest unspun Scot.
I think the Independent just made their figures up and were unlucky to find another newspaper sampling opinion in the same room
Even accounting for supporters clustering together in different parts of the room the results seem somewhat outrageous.
Tim -I would have thought that at the margin the fact that the local MP supports a candidate would influence members in that constituency (presumably consituencies with a Lib Dem Mp have more members than most).
The betting arguement is that more money is supporting Huhne, because his supporters have more money.
We will see. I think we agree that the election has gone on long enough!!!
BTW Mike, I don’t recall you playing down the YouGov poll by emphasising the fact it was commissioned by a Huhne supporter and put the voting question last at the time. A bit of ramping?
22 - That assumes that every MP who has declared for Ming is still supporting him.
20 Roger… would the honest unspun Scot you’re referring to be the smearmeister that Guido is talking about in his post of Saturday, February 18? Surely not!?
20 - except in England!
20 - So anyone who presents themselves well is now a “PR man”? What is Huhne’s background in PR?
22. Icarus - I had a report that Colin Breed MP said recently something along the lines of “None of them are listening to me on this. Even my wife isn’t listening to me.” (re supporting Ming)
Alex - he wasn’t a PR man. Wikipedia says this about his previous career.
“Before his political career, he was a City economist, and before that an economic commentator for The Guardian, The Independent and The Independent on Sunday. He also worked as a journalist for the Liverpool Daily Post and Echo and The Economist.”
29 - Thank you Paul. It was a rhetorical question
22 “The betting arguement is that more money is supporting Huhne, because his supporters have more money.” You insist on repeating the same smear, Icarus. Of course, no betting agency is going to reveal who has placed bets or laid with them, so you’ll no doubt carry on doing so.
Yesterday, I wrote that I am sick and tired of this smear, the smear that the market for Huhne is being maintained at the level it is by his special friends.
Read this and absorb it, please, because something like this *may* stop you continuing to smear. I personally drove the market down, on February 9, from 2.2 to below 1.7. I have no connection whatsoever with Chris Huhne. I, and I no doubt many others, believe that he will win. Are you willing to accept this or not?
Hughes not sounding too confident on Radio 5. Thinks Huhne may be overhyped by the press because he’s the new kid on the block and was a journalist, but could be totally wrong about that.
Hopes Ming does well because he’s a friend and a fantastic elder statesman for the party.
On the other hand clearly doesn’t think he himself is going to win.
31. Would you have put that money on and driven the market down if you had been a serious supporter of Ming? A lot of supporters put money on their own team and if Hulhn’s supporters are gamblers and wealthy …….that doesn’t make it sinister
Mike, can I just clarify one of your sentences about YouGov? Is it right that Peter Kellner authenticated the second preference figures that “webpoll2″ posted here?
re 23. I posted a comment about the email exchange I had had with Peter Kellner on this very subject.
My view is that this contest is close and I have adjusted my betting accordingly. I am risk averse and have taken my Huhne profits on IG already. I have an equal position on Betfair - all very comfortable thanks to you spotting the 200/1 on Huhne a few weeks back.
31 - If Huhne’s supporters are manipulating the odds, I don’t criticise it at all and don’t see it as a smeer. It is brilliant politics to turn yourself into the favourite. It is nothing like an accusation of manipulating currency or share markets - you are not destabilising the economy or risking people’s jobs by doing it. Betting exchanges are all a zero sum game - I lose a bit, you make a bit - and having somebody prepared to pile in to maintain someone’s odds creates an opportunity for the rest of us as Mike has noted. I am a proud Minger, but I am rather impressed by it if Huhne’s team are behind the odd betting markets.
“Even my wife isn’t listening to me” - does anyone’s wife/huspand/partner?
re 34. Yes. Peter Kellner confirmed to me by email that the second preferences listed in “Webpoll2″ comments were accurate. These were from the first unpublished poll.
This is part of comment 27 on the second thread on February 8th.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
(To Hughes supporters at 1st preference qn) How are you intending to cast your second preference vote?
Menzies Campbell 49%
Chris Huhne 27%
Undecided 12%
Not intending to cast a second preference 13%
Heard as much as I can, and have now finally voted - 1 Ming, 2 Chris, 3 Simon. At the start I had Chris and Simon the other way round.I think from limited discussions among activists that in this group it will split pretty evenly, but I suspect (or is it just wishful thinking?) that non activists will go for Ming’s greater name recognition and gravitas. Small bet put on Ming at 11/8 yesterday - I see its tightened a bit since.
Thanks Mike. Very good for Ming if those figures were accurate and reflect what’s actually gone into the envelopes.
At 39 that should have read 13/8
“31 - If Huhne’s supporters are manipulating the odds….”
Aren’t you tired of wealthy people manipulating things in their favour? I am. If Tim was right-which I doubt-then I think it’s about as noble as Abramovich using Russian assets for his football hobby.
re 38. This is the email message from Peter Kellner at 9.11 am on Feb 9.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Mike
The second preference figures you were sent yesterday were correct.
Peter
Karen Buck set to resign her junior transport minister position. she found her portfolio unsuited to her interests.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,1717705,00.html
Three members including myself travelled in my car to Wednesday’s hustings in T Wells. The other two had already voted for Ming and Chris respectively but I was unsure. Hughes for me won the evening with his distinctive version of Liberal Democracy and duly got my vote with Ming my second preference because he impressed with his gravitas.
However I felt maybe Huhne may have just edged it on number of supporters in the room. The SE is not the best territory for Ming though so the result imo is still far from certain.
good topic Mike. My only thought is this: I was surveyed for the Guardian poll as I left, however as I headed away I saw more people with the same sheet, and I briefly considered walking by another one a couple of times so she might poll me again. Given the number of Huhne activists around on the night is it possible that Huhne supporters were inadvertantly (or given the general slickness and figure-massaging of the cmapaign not so inadvertantly) being polled more than once, inflating CH’s rating?
Well, I voted yesterday- I was floating between Huhne and Ming..then voted for Simon! Why? I was In total confusion and had to make a decision, and the recent Huhne revelations (9 houses, lots of mining shares, possibility of EU investigation), while not putting me off him, have left me to wonder what there is left to be revealed about such an unknown. Ming and Simon have been under scrutiny for many years, Simons ‘revelations’ are now out, and I fell that both (particularly Ming) would be a safe bet. I kept a Ming 2nd preference as I know that will be the part of my vote that really counts- and a ming win would be a result I would be comfortable with.
45/47: The great Hughes comeback starts here! Are the more serious betters among us badly off if he pulls off a surprise?
Pension fury at Scottish Labour Conference
possible Summer/Winter of discontent
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=290822006
Sorry, its off topic, but the BBC have picked the least happy looking people EVER to comment on Plaid’s new logo
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4744956.stm
re 48. I am only in a real mess if Mark Oaten does it after all.
Plaid (as they must be called now) comment of the day: ‘Liberal Democrat AM Jenny Randerson added: “Plaid’s re-branding exercise is a bit like repainting your house, while ignoring the fact that the foundations are crumbling’.
I worry about Plaid- the general response seems to have been 1)Why talk about removing the ‘Cymru’ when you are a nationalist party for Wales 2)the logo looks like the BP symbol 3)the mountains logo was a good reprsentation of Wales 4)nobody has a clue what they stand for
Interestingly, their PPB yesterday painted them as a socialist party- so Labour is the very clear target for 2007. I have my doubts.
…and I say that as someone who hopes Plaid stick around (although as a Lib Dem I was glad about ceredigion!)
18 Tim Z: “surely the words “Straw poll” suggest - just that. I read that as saying that it can’t be relied upon at all.”
Did you notice, that the Guardian had health warnings, as well:
“It is possible the results are skewed because of geographical variations in support for the candidates, and because activists are more likely to attend hustings than “armchair” members.
Sir Menzies and Mr Hughes are more likely to have bedrock support among less active Lib Dems because they are better known than Mr Huhne, and have a higher profile outside the south-east. Backers of all three men suggest that those who voted early were less likely to vote for the Treasury spokesman, who has picked up momentum over the campaign.
It is impossible to conduct any statistically reliable poll because researchers would have to make many thousands of calls to find a large enough random sample of the 73,000 Lib Dems, and no central membership data is available.”
So the last paragraph means, that the Guardian’s poll can’t be relied upon at all, either.
50. I think Plaid’s new logo is very impressive. Nationalist parties have too much of a macho image at the moment and this much softer look is a good idea. The colour is also well chosen for the same reason.
55 Roger, have you done an about-face on your view of the value of PR since post 20?
52. Agreed. Its strange they dropped Cymru when all they really seem to stand for is Wales. Why drop from your name your the basis of your political belief?
55. So you think its wise of them to change to a soft image to appeal to hard nosed, left-wing, long standing Labour voters in South Wales?
Perhaps they needed a logo which appealed to a wider section of the Welsh population, but I fear this is not it (and I also would like them to do well).
I wonder what the rank and file of Plaid will think of it. When the SNP changed it to a horrible new logo in 1996 there were howls of protest resulting in every member being sent a ballot papers with a choice of logo’s. Hence the present one.
http://www.alba.org.uk/scotching/newlogo.html
Given that the London Hustings was open to the public with up to 50% of tickets being reserved for interested observers, I wonder if either of the interviewers asked if their respondents were actually eligible to vote ?
[44] She’s leaving the Government because she doesn’t stand a prayer in the new Westminster North unless she can portray herself as a serial rebel. And how the hell do the BBC figure out she’s a leftwinger? My Whitehall Mole applies an entirely other adjective, which has no directional implication whatsoever…
Anna at 56. It wouldn’t surprise me!
Infact I make my living in advertising and I was really just saying it was a good job. Corporate identities I’m told are as difficult as it gets and the people who have done this seem to have got it about right.
I think that Labour got itself a reputation for putting presentation above all else and as a result the Zeitgeist has changed. Probably not enough yet to blow the likes of Cameron away but I would expect him to tread carefully.
50: The article said that the new logo was supposed to be a Welsh poppy, but almost everybody interviewed thought that it was a daffodil. :-S
61 Labour’s reputation for spin still doesn’t seem to have really hurt them at the ballot box though. I think generally we are becoming more inured to slick presentation and more tolerant of it. DC shouldn’t have a problem amongst the general public, I think it’s only on websites such as this that policy-lite politics will truly be scorned…
Be polite to Roger, please Anna et al
The site needs Roger and the professor. Their role is different from those who post considered analysis of political issues of the day.
They are far more representative of the population as whole than all the rest of you—-and we do need to keep reminding ourselves of that.
64 Was I impolite? I just genuinely wanted to know what Roger thought about “presentation politics.”
RE: Plaid. I have no problems with them getting rid of the triban (the old 3 peak logo) and think the new one is at least a bit more up to date. But I think to get rid of Cymru from the title is just plain silly and in fact the word plaid just means ‘a party’ (there is no indefinite article in Welsh, the noun on its own shows that the noun is indefinite). They seem to have made themselves even more wishy-washy, which is a shame because there is a constituency of people in Wales who are very loyal to Plaid and they seem to just be floundering.
Don’t like the new logo - I agree it makes your eyes go funny looking at it
[55] No, in terms of this site, you weren’t being rude.
My point was, Roger needs cherishing.
There are some on here who scorn him because of what he posts. The fact that much of it does not stand up to critical analysis is immaterial. We need some like him to remind ourselves how the majority think.
68 Apologies missed the irony first time round…
Thr rubbish I’ve come to expect from Huhne fanatics on this thread has reappeared I see, neither of these polls means anything, anyone who says different is clearly working from the same sheet that’s believing manipulated odds and push polls.
If you bet on these figures you’ve got to be crazy.
If the guy does win then he’ll be head of a party whose MPs clearly do not want him as leader, I hope they go for the jugular the way they didn’t against Kennedy, and quickly.
68. I’m sorry David I think thats inredably patronising. You are suggesting that Roger a member of some lesser “majority” on a lower plane of political thought than others here. What crap.
We are all political geeks here, and we probably know more detail than the average guy in the street. But their opinions are no less valid than ours.
Stop resorting to personal insults and back hand remarks, you do this site a disservice.
David at 68. I think you should include ukpaul in your list of irrationals!
Paul. Explain why it would make sense to ‘go for the jugular’ against a leader the party had just voted for?
60. Innocent Abroad. well, I was wondering how they could have described her as a “left wing”.
if the swing against Labour in London won’t be so big, Labour could survive in WN (according to Anthony Wells’figures it’s a 9% Lab majority)
72 - because he doesn’t like him.
Btw, I think I’ve realized why it seems I always agree with Hughes in thise leadership campaign: he just insists in some slogans (leadership with passion; Freedom, Fairness and Sustainability and a couple of other obivous things).
but it could be good to attract general/casual voters.
Ah, Hughes has a terrible signature!
And ukpaul has control of the votes of 2 million LibDem voters. It’s an advanced postal voting scam.
76. is ukpaul from Birmingham??
[73] Yes, I know what Brother Anthony (whom God preserve) says - just you wait to see what the Tory majority in the seat is in the May local elections… I care because my ruddy vote’s been moved thither from CoLaW, where I could vote Green to my heart’s content…
Let’s get a few things straight;
1) Guardian Poll. There were 2 people asking the questions that I saw - Mike White - who was standing outside the main exit door, then if you turned right to leave, a young chap with specs - 10 yards further on on the pavement. Mike White asked me TWICE (I’m not a member). I could have easily made my feeling known 3 times without even trying (2x to Mike and 1x to the chap in the specs). It was chaotic in the lobby of the hall, full of partisan young teams that easily have swung this poll either way.
2)Indie poll. The Indie people were not outside, they were sitting in a big group in front of the presenters. Both these polls are worthless, especially given the obvious keeness of some to present ANY piece of information as evidence they are “winning here”
3) THIS IS THE KEY POINT - The phone canvass of 2000 members on Special Bets said that Hughes’s 2nd prefs were at least 60% in favour of Menzies. We also know that Peter Kellner confirmed that YouGov poll #1 had 64% of Hughes’s supporter choosing Ming as a second preference. TWO POLLS, one (potentially) biased and one neutral CONFIRMING THE SAME SECOND PREFERENCE FIGURES.
This is quite possibly the best political betting opportunity EVER. Huhne’s price iw artificial and there’s loads available - an historic opportunity!
72. Indeed. If there is one quick way to ensure we have NO future, it would be for the MPs to move against whoever was elected leader by the membership.
However, I’m still fairly sure Ming will get it, perhaps by around 5% after the second round.
78. so you don’t seem to be very happy to have KB as Labour candidate…..
80. I, of course, meant second preferences, not second round…
ukpaul, cheer up, life is never as bad as it seems, there is a bright side to most things.
79 - Do you not find it unsurprising that a Ming canvasser would find that a large number of people were prepared to give him their second preference vote?
84/alex
I would expect some bias yes - this has been accounted for. I’m encouraged that it tallies with yougov1. If you disagree, I’m putting up some money now, lets start with £1k @1.78? - one of the Huhney stabilisation team may hit it first so you’ll need to be quick!
85 - I’ve got my profit. I’m not going to be stupid enough to start betting on an event that may already have finished.
[71] Some posters you read on here for entertainment, some for polling information, some for betting advice/tips, some for policy/issue analysis, some for special knowledge of an area/local party.
Roger and the professor are required reading for another reason again—they seem to represent a majority opinion in the country, but a minority view on here.
If that’s patronising, sobeit.
Alex/85 OK, I may just have to take out the 1.8 - have a look, will be interesting to see if it gets replaced with another lump..
You make a fair point David. Being a Blair/Brown supporter of the Labour party makes me closer to the mainstream than most on here. If Diane Abbott or BMA or any of their cronies ever became leader I would vote for Cameron’s Tories. Had Howard still been leader I would have had a real problem and would either have had to vote Lib Dem in the hope of a hung parliament (which I don’t like) or emigrate!
89 Shall I pack your bags
[90] No fan of DA’s would pack a man’s bags - throw them out of the bedroom window, yes; pack them first, no….
90. I’ll help you Diane!
At least we can still laugh at the comments on this site.
87-David Kendrick
‘Roger and the professor are required reading for another reason again—they seem to represent a majority opinion in the country, but a minority view on here.’
21% of the electorate voted Labour at the last election,how does this represent ‘a majority opinion in the country’?
93. or cry…..
btw, yes, SNP 1996 new logo was bad. The activists got it right when they pressed the leadership to replace it!
94. Have you people still not worked out that the Professor is a spoof? I have strong suspicions that Roger is, too.
[94] Excluding don’t knows, at the last GE, which party had more votes? Won more seats?
The point is that the govt of today is ‘mainstream’. The rest of us are ‘outsiders’. Roger and the professor represent that view here, and few others do. They are the masters now. Grim, but that’s how it is. We shouldn’t forget it.
97 - Political man-servant to Roger - I can do that
…But to bally eric (he of the very lower cases)
!!???!
97. it’s not that because someone supports the winning party, he becomes a typical expression of mainstream voters. Abbott is a Labourite and she’s everything except mainstream!
97 But NOT a majority of voted. A flawed voting system producing a skewed result.
Accusations that I’m from Birmingham!?! How low could they stoop?
Roger - Alex is quite right, I don’t like Huhne, but for a very good reason. I would like a strong third party which has the charismatic leader that it needs to overcome the power of the two main parties. I want a leader who will take the fight to labour and who talks the language of swing voters not the language of party apparatchiks and policy wonks. I also want a leader who doesn’t use the sort of underhand tactics employed by the Huhne camp (on that subject, they started it and it’s unfair to say that others cannot respond in kind. Even if he is elected).
For the sake of the lib dems and for the political direction of the country members and MPs would be doing us a service by not electing him or dumping him quickly.
David (s) - thank you for your concern; my life is very nice thank you, if only the state of the country was the same!
101.”Accusations that I’m from Birmingham!?! How low could they stoop?”
is coming from Birmingham such a bad thing?
Does anyone think Abbott will stand down at the next election?.
102 A blind tourist complained when he went through on a train
103. She’s in Parliament since a good amount of time (1987), but she isn’t very old (born un 1953).
She has interests outside politics, so she could get earnings even if she stands down.
Then she previously had problems with re-selections…..
103 - She is well liked in the constituency - she was my MP when I lived in Stoke Newington and had a good reputation for getting things done and hopefully she will stand again - don’t want a Labour clone to replace her. The previous MP to her, Ernie Roberts was more to the left as well.
106. Marcia, three branch Labour parties and one party affiliate (Co-op party) voted against her reselection last time.
107 Oh dear! Must be the gentifrication of the area - it has changed a lot since I returned back to Dundee in 1990. The local party was quite left wing in the 80’s and I remember the deselection of Ernie Roberts and the end of civilisation according to the local press before the 1987 election as told to us by the Hackney Gazette.
108- well, since 1990 the whole Labour party has changed a lot!
Why did they deselect Ernie Roberts? Did Diane Abbott have anything to do with it?
Wasn’t the main reason that there was a threat of deselection because of where she sent her son to school? Not because of her rebelliousness against the Government?
111. no, Alex, the son debacle happened when she has already been reselected.
109 A few honourable exceptions remain - my late parents would be heartbroken at the present party they were active in the Labour movement in the 30’s to the 70’s and were always optimistic that they would see the end of the awful conditions in what the ‘working class’ lived through before the war. I feel they would be happy to see some of the impovements but would be depressed by the selfish society that has emerged. The ‘me’ culture.
The Labour Party It should change it’s name as I wonder in jest if they coud be prosecuted for deception. Now alas off shopping.:shock:
111. Alex, Abbott’s supporters labelled her opponents in the local party as “Blairite apparatchiks”.
The fact an MP has reselection problems doesn’t necesserly mean he/she would get them the next time too. Bob Wareing was forced to contest an full-scale selection in 2001, but he had few problems in 2005.
113 Marcia - I vaguely recall similar points about the abandonment and betrayal of traditional working class Labour voters being made many years ago to John Prescott by that much underrated political interviewer, Simon Bates.
btw, will we see Diane Abbott defending Red Ken in her Evening Standard’s column?
OT - the Lib Dem disintegration in Sutton continues. They have just lost their THIRD councillor since the start of the year. Worc Park Cllr Julian Freeman has resigned the whip and decided to sit as an independent. Previously, one was disqualified for non attendence and another resigned to live abroad. They are also reported to be struggling to find replacements for about a third of their number who are not standing again!
Roll on 4th May!
116 Would the Standard print it?
Is Gordon Brown not speaking at the Scotish Labour party conference?.
[110] Roger, I can tell you the whole inside story if you really want it… I was there
119 - No he’s decided to stay away - nothing to do with the by-election I’m sure.
what proportion of Lib Dems members vote in elections like this how many voted in last presidential (libdem) election and inKennedy .v. Highes election
122 Charles Kenndey was elected on a turnout of 61.6% out of 86,000 members. (After second/third etc.. preferences were reallocated he got 56.6% to Hughes’ 43.4%)
121: Seems a strange decision to make. Surely he should be tying to reassure the party faithful. The man is not a leader.
119/121/124. aren’t his relationships with Holyrood’s party a bit “difficult” (with McConnell in particular)?
“… we can learn much from such historical lights as Stalin, Mao and others who enriched their societies and delivered equality and the guiding hand of the state to their people in the modern age.” Gordon Brown Feb 16 2006 http://gordon-brown.blogspot.com/
Anybody else scared?
126 … Why don’t ministers keep an eye on the interent to stop people setting up websites in their names???
125 - Apparently they get on better than they did but he has never been particularly loved by the the Labour party in the west of Scotland. IIRC they didn’t give him much backing for the leadership - McConnell himself sided with Blair.
128. There’re some Brownites among MPs from Scotland, but many Blairites too. And then Katy Clark who is something apart
[127] Easy, Anna. They are all too arrogant.
The point Annak makes about GB not looking like a leader seems sounder by the day.
The guy who is good as 2 i/c, and serves in that capacity for a long while, seldom makes a great leader.
126 I almost believed that blog was genuine until I started to read it. There used to be a spoof website on Jack McConnell it hasn’t been updated for a while - maybe because he hasn’t done much of late - but here it is
http://members.tripod.com/jack.mcconnell/welcome.html
131 If you go on that blog, don’t click on the “join Labour” button. It takes you through to some unpleasant pictures of dead people (presumably in Iraq)
132. Anna, it was the first link I clicked!
130. or maybe because they’re just too busy working.
133 - don’t be silly. Has “The Thick of It” reached Italy yet?
131 That site is cruel…”But Jack McConnell is not just a beautifully browned piece of meat which every adolescent Scottish girl fantasises about. He is also the biggest thing to hit the Scottish intellectual fan since Robert C. Nesbitt.”…
133 Sorry, Andrea! Should have put the health warning with the original post…
134. what is the The Thick of It?
137 Satire on the British political system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Thick_of_It
138. Anna, thanks. Never heard of it.
But there were 3 murders in Midsomer yesterday! A pretty low average for their standards!
139 They have a very high population turnover… It averts the housing crisis…
140. It should be a typical tory place, but the busy sex life of the residents could point out to a strong LD presence
141 They’re usually discrete… so probably Tory…
142. they sometimes have hippies parties too: so maybe the Greens could get 3-4%
Midsomer Murders is filmed in rural Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire. Says a lot about the nice safe Tory seats of Messrs Bercow, Cameron and Johnson, and their constitents.
144 I don’t think you can really generalise the crime problem of Midsomer. When I have a weekend out of Oxford, I rarely end up involved in a murder investigation…
143 I’ve never seen one with a hippie party in it. You’d have thought they’d be more sympathetic to the pro-gun lobby…
144. My mum is now convinced that the tories were obsessed by “law and order” because there’re lots of crimes in their seats
And it would explain Bercow championing gay rights: 1/3 of the population of Midsomer is secretly gay.
145 - well Oxford had its own crime wave in the 1980s and 1990s - but fortunately Inspector Morse was around to solve any goings on.
146 1/3? That few…
147 CCTV and a floodlit city centre, combined with high visibility policing has now taken his place…
Both newspaper polls are cobblers. half the audience weren’t members, they were all political anoraks by definition. Even allowing for that it would just be an accurate poll of london/south members at most.
all the national press is to tight to pay for a proper yougov and so is inventing nonsence (see the observers silly constituency chair one).
Ryk, winning control of the Council is a mixed blessing for a PPC !
142 “They’re usually discrete… so probably Tory… ”
As in “There’s no such thing as society”.
150 Sorry don’t see the link… What has Margaret Thatcher got to do with the political leanings of Midsomer?
151. Midsomer could be the perfect constituency for Edwina!
149 - Agreed!
152 Nasty mental images… Thanks Andrea…
151. Discrete as opposed to discreet, I suspect.
Me ol mucker Rik. I worry for you if Sutton remains Lib Dem, can you “cope”!
156 - Believe me I coped with Reading being Labour so a few Lib Dems in Sutton hold no terror for me. Anyway they are dropping like flies. We may not need an election to take control at this rate! lol
lol Rik. How do you rate your chances of taking the council? 70%? and did you get my email from aaaaages ago?
144 - It does, does it SBS? Tell me, do you believe everything you see on television and read in the newspapers?
Enjoy this evening Jack.
Totally deserved / total lack of turning up by us.
Trying to get the cat off my shoe as I speak !
50. Would you be kind enough to quantify the asserted quote please ?
‘Trying to get the cat off my shoe as I speak !’
please explain? Did you step in one? Is the cat okay? Worried cat lover.:shock:
159 - one of my favourite weekend activities is going for a nice pub lunch in Midsomer country. I find it hard to believe such unspeakable things go on there. The villages are lovely - a credit to Conservatism.
62 - Rugby. Scotland beat England.
163 - Speaking as a resident of rural Buckinghamshire, I’m very pleased to hear that.
164 - John, my dear fellow! May I send you an email?
166 - Of course, AHM.
64 - alba gu brath
wonders never cease!
158 - Difficult to judge but we have a large maj to overturn.
Sorry about the email - I owe you a reply!!!
167 - Sent!
Rik at least you have a chance of getting your way in Sutton and running the council. We Lib Dems and you Tories will not lift the curse of Labour rule on Reading Borough Council this year… don’t you wish you were here…?
171. will Jane come back from Latvia to vote?
172 - In 2004 - last time local elections were held in Reading, Jane did not go to the Reading count. She went to the Wokingham count as part of her ex-constituency lies within that borough. Not many, if any, Labour councillors in Wokingham.
173. I suppose many Reading Labourites were happy not to see her
173. and yes, no Labour councillors in Wokingham (it’s 38 tories and 16 Libdems)
Incidentally, Labour came third in terms of votes in the locals in Reading East in 2004. They will probably match that in the next General Election.
There’s a new ICM poll out tomorrow in the News of the World. Key points..
* Brown 12 points ahead of Cameron as preferred successor to Blair
* 61% like Cameron nut only 22% like Brown
* 54% thought Brown would avoid paying for a second round of drinks compared to only 21% for Cameron
* 43% thought Brown looked like a PM compared to 40% for Cameron
Full story and details on my blog at http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com