The PB.C Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition
February 27th, 2006
Paul Maggs has devised and will manage the following competition. Simply predict:
1. Who the new leader will be?
2. The percentage of the first preference votes your predicted new leader wins
3. The percentage of the overall votes (after re-distribution of second preferences) your predicted new leader wins
You may make your predictions to one decimal place
-
Scoring
Your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result at both stages of the voting (regardless of whether your predictions are higher or lower than the actual results).
For example, your predictions are Hughes to be the new leader, with 42% of the first preference votes and 54% of the overall votes. The results give Hughes 44% of the first preferences and 48% of the overall votes. Your score on the first preferences is 44 – 42 = 2. Your score on the overall votes is 54 – 48 = 6, so your total score is 2 + 6 = 8.
The entry with the lowest combined score will win the competition.
Note that if your predicted new leader is eliminated after the first preferences, he will score zero in the overall votes. In the example above, if you had predicted Hughes to take 54% of the overall votes but he is eliminated, you would score 54 on the overall votes.
Please post entries in the thread below before 2000 GMT on Wednesday March 1st 2006. Any comments on the competition should be made on the previous thread.
Paul has also devised a prize competion. Details are available here.
MessageSpace Advertising
Chris Huhne to win
37.5% of first prefs
50.8% of final count
Mike - the link to Paul’s “prize competition” is to an email address not a website….
1. Ming Campbell
2. 37.5% of 1st preference votes
3. 51.2% Overall
Ming Campbell to win
37% of first preferences
48% of the overall vote
Cambell to win
42% of first prefs
52% of final count
1. Ming Campbell
2. 39.2% of first prefs
3. 56.9% of overall
1. Ming
2. 40.5%
3. 55%
Ming
38.2% 1st prefs
50.9% after 2nd prefs
Unfortunately, Ming
37% first prefs
52% after 2nds
1. Ming (obviously)
2. 46.2% of First pref
3. 56.5% overall ( Russell (4) to win don’t you have to get more than 50%)
1- Huhne
2- 37
3- 52
1. Chris Huhne to win
2. 38.6% of first prefs
3. 52.7 of final count
On the example given in the intro wouldn’t you score minus 54 if your candidate was eliminated?
1. Ming
2. 51.2% 1st Preferences.
3. Not Applicable !!
Alternative Contest :
1. Viscount Thurso
2. 97.89%
3. Who cares !!
Ming to win
44% 1st preference
55% after second preferences
The original competition is even more open for predictions than previously /you no longer need to log in)
http://liberalism2010.blogspot.com/
Another week…
When will it ever end?!
1 - Campbell
2/3 (and the 5 explanatory paragraphs that follow) - can’t answer as I’m a Tory - I don’t understand these silly continental voting systems. A cross in a box would suffice for me.
16 - I do feel it would be better to get members to dial an 09 number to evict somebody - profits going to party funds of course…
Ming will win
53.4 % first pref
65.2% after second count
Much gnashing of teeth and post mortems on PB.com about ramping, about not seeing the bloody obvious that many people voted before Huhne came up, about shoddy polling practises, about clients of polls influencing the result.
Much realization about a week or so later that the Tories will win the next election with a 20 vote or so majority, electoral maths notwithstanding.
You heard it here first. What say you Jack W?
Chris Huhne to win
36.9152222%
52%
18 Commentator. I say there’s no need for a second count after Ming breaks 50% !!
Ming
38%
54.4%
LOL, oh well, I’m a Tory and do not understand how this contest works. That Ming will win I am absolutely certain. That his margin will be big enough to provoke a lot of hand-wringing over psephology, private polls, push questions in same, and market ramping I am also sure.
But I was more interested in your view of my prediction of a Tory majority of 20 or so. You seem to know what you are on about electorally.
Russell at 2 - if you drop me a line to the email address I will send you the competition by return.
Well, I was tempted to be the only person to go for Hughes, just to look impressive if he wins. But I don’t really see it, so:-
1 - Campbell
2 - 43.3%
3 - 68.5%
22 Commentator. I’ll move over to the previous thread to answer, as this is for the competition.
Whoosh ………over we go !!
22. “Ming will win I am absolutely certain”
If I was absolutely certain of something I’d wager all my investments, mortgage, cash and probably both my parents on it. Try http://www.betfair.com
I don’t gamble. I come here for the P not the B. Ming will win. No need to get stressed about it.
Anyone wanting a copy of the prize competition, please email me at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk (the link above is going to election@yahoo.co.uk at present). Many thanks.
Ming
40%
55%
1.Huhne
2. 35.8%
3. 53.8%
Campbell
1. 40.9%
2. 57.9%
1. Campbell
2. 41.5%
3. 53%
1. Huhne
2. with 41% 1st prefs
2. after seconds 59%
1 Hughes
2 37.1%
3 50.1 %
Well I’ve put my vote there and my money so I should at least have some conviction!
1. Ming
2. 39%
3. 55%
1. Ming Campbell
2. 41.1%
3. 54%
1. Ming
2. 38%
3. 54%
1) Ming
2) 37.0
3) 53.4
Ming
42
57
Given that very few people on here seem to think Huhne will win, presumably they are all making decent money on Ming Campbell at 6/4?
1. Huhne
2. 38%
3. 52%
Well, my suspicion is it will be 1. Ming 2. Hughes 3. Huhne, but I’ll guess the other way because that’s what I really want to happen:
1. Huhne
2. 36.2
3. 52.2
Huhne
38
53
1. Rinka
2. 55%
3% 75%
1.ming
2.36.7%
3.51.5%
1. Ming Campbell
2. 33.9%
3. 50.7%
1 - Campbell
2 - 39.2%
3 - 55.3%
1 Ming
2 44%
3 61%
1. Campbell
2. 42.3
3. 56.7
1 Ming
2 37.5%
3 53.5%
1 Huhne
2 39.8%
3 51.1%
1. Hughes
2. 37%
3. 50.5%
Ming
1. 42.2%
3. 57.7%
1. Ming
2. 38.5
3. 50.5
1. Huhne
2. 37.2%
3. 53.8%
1 Huhne
2 39.8%
3 51.5%
Hughes
52% on first preference. No need for 2nd vote - the grass roots have it!!
1. Chris Huhne
2. 45%
3. 58%
1. Chris Huhne
2. 41%
3. 50.5%
65% so far think Ming wins.. can someone explain why he’s trading at 2.48% ? I’m confused!
1. Huhne
2. 38.4%
3. 51.7
60 - perhaps some people are just trying to drive up Huhne’s odds and then place a bet…
60: I’ve been away in the Highlands for the weekend and hadn’t kept 100% up to date on Lib Dem developments (Jack W, I don’t know how you manage it). I was worried I had missed something given that Huhne seemed favourite before I left. Glad others seem baffled.
FWIW
1. Huhne
2. 37.5
3. 50.5
Huhne
1. 36.5%
2. 51.4%
Huhne to win.
38% first preferences - 50.1% overall
MC
54.4%
sorry and 37.5 on 1st pref.
1. David Cameron (well, he is a Lib Dem)
2. 43%
3. 109% thanks to creative accounting from George Osborne
1. Hughes !
2. 36.3%
3. 50.1%
Huhne
43.0%
56.0%
1. Chris Huhne
2. 38.6
3. 53.6
1. Ming
2. 37.3
3. 53.2
1. Campbell.
2. 42pc
3. 53pc
1. Campbell
2. 39
3. 51
1. Huhne
2. 35.5%
3. 51.2%
1. Huhne
2. 38%
3. 56%
Ming
38.75
54
1. Me
2. 100%
ming win
First round
ming 36%
hughes 32%
huhne 31%
Second Round
Ming 56%
hughes 41%
1. Campbell
2. 32%
3. 49%
Are the percentages in question 3 based on the original number of votes cast, or only on those that are valid for the second count? I had assumed the latter, but perhaps #80 assumes the former.
I don’t know what I will do if the party establishment, safe pairs of hands,and bridges to the future, win.
We did for one moment have the possibility being part of the future.
But to take my mind off suicide:
1. Huhne.
2 38%
3 50.5%
Cllr Beth
1. The Mighty One (Ming)
2. 37.5%
3. 52%
1. Huhne
2. 38,5%
3. 54,5%
1. Sir Ming
2.38
3.48
1 Gordon Brown’s defence secretary (Ming)
2 44.9
2 56.3
1. Who the new leader will be? Chris Huhne
2. The percentage of the first preference votes your predicted new leader wins 48%
3. The percentage of the overall votes (after re-distribution of second preferences) your predicted new leader wins 55%
Stuart… he has to get over 50% to win!
44 - Rinka? Gone but not forgotten apparantly.
I think there’s a loophole in the rules. If I can get away with it I’ll predict:
1)Hughes
2)28%
3)0%
If he comes third, I’m guaranteed to score 0 in the second round, so my final score is just |Hughes-28|
However, that would be cheating, so my genuine expectation is a compfortable Ming victory something like:
Ming,
42%
59%
88. No he doesn’t; see my post on other thread at 110.
Huhne
39.3
52.3
Ming
39%
52%
Ming
40%
54%
Huhne
42%
58%
1. Ming Campbell
2. 38.8%
3. 55.1% Overall
Simon Hughes
38.5%
50.2%
1 Ming Campbell
2 37.8%
3 52.8%
Huhne 45.2, 61.5
1. Ming
2. 36.6%
3. 51.2%
1. Huhne
2. 39.2%
3. 51.7%
Couldn’t care less really as none of them will measure up to Kennedy but I’ll have a stab anyway (boom boom !)
1/ Campbell
2/ 39.5 %
3/ 52.1 %
No doubt the duplicit Focus’ and Bar Charts will keep coming anyway !
1. Huhne
2. 42.2%
3. 54.2%
102 Tory Boy.
1. Huhne
2. 39.6%
3. 50.8%
1. Ming Campbell
2. 40.5%
3. 56.2%
It appears that only 4% think Simon has a chance and that Minge will do rather well.Why are Simon’s odds not at least 40/1…..?
In answer to previous posts & to clarify a couple of things:
Icarus at 13 – the scoring is done on the absolute difference between predicted result & actual result (ie no minus scores).
If there’s an outright winner on the first preferences (eg post 18) then all of the predictions for the result on overall votes will be disregarded in calculating the competition winner.
Lewis at 81 – the percentages of the overall votes are based on the votes that are valid for the second count (ie the winning prediction for overall votes in 1999 would have been Kennedy 56.6%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election%2C_1999).
However, where competition entries for the overall votes show the winner with less than 50%, they have obviously been based on the original votes cast, and as such will be recalculated as a percentage of the valid 2nd votes once the results are declared.
tpfkar at 90 – if Hughes is predicted to be the overall winner, then clearly he can’t score 0% on the second count votes – so I have only put your second entry into the competiton.
Hope all this makes sense – as with other competitions on pb.com, this is being run under the “Smithson Doctrine” ie I am right even when I am wrong, or to put it another way, the competition organiser’s decision is final. Please drop me a line at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk if you would like me to send you the prize competition. Many thanks.
and the winner is….
envelope please…
David Cameron!…..that is to say Ming 38% 1st ballot 53% 2nd preference
1. Chris Huhne
2. 38%
3. 52%
1/MING
2/41.7%
3/50.4%
1) Ming
2) 38.5%
3) 51.5%
1.Ming
2.37.6%
3.57.6%
1. Ming Campbell
2.43.3%
3.57.1%
Double Carpet @ 108: thanks, was just pointing out something which hadn’t been made clear. Perhaps adding a line in the rules to the effect of ‘only score for correct winner’? i.e. your entry doesn’t get added up for the wrong winner.
1. Huhne let the dogs out
2 37%
3 51%
1. Ming Cambell
2. 42.7%
3. 55.4%
Campbell
1. 40.1%
2. 53.9%
off-topic: Anyone know why in 1999(according to Wikipedia) there was a round 3, when Ballard & Bruce combined could not have overhauled Hughes?
1. Huhne
2. 39%
3. 50.1%
Huhne to win.
First preferences: 42%
In the run-off: 53%
1.Huhne
2. 39.5%
3. 52.4%
Huhne; 37.5%; 53.8%
1. Ming
2. 40%
3. 56%
Rod Crosby, last person drops out each time and their preferences spread until one person gets 50.01%. Simple! Its the 50.01% that is the key. Just like elections in Northern Ireland and I think Eire.
1. Ming Campbell
2. 39.8%
3. 53.1%
Ming
36.2%
54.3%
Huhne
1st 50.2%
No need for a second pref.
Ming
39.9
51.1
Ming
First Preference - 38%
Winning Vote - 54.1%
1. Mingus
2. 47.2
3. Fifty six
btw aren’t there more important things to talk about?
1 Huhne
2 40.9
3 55.2
Well, as a betting man, just fiddling around with a calculator shows me that 58% of us are Mingers, and 37% are for Huhne, with 5% for Hughes. Average 1st preferences for Ming and Huhne are 40% in each camp, with Ming shading it for final outcome with his supporters predicting 54.5% and Huhne backers suggesting 53%.
Taking into account the wisdom of crowds and the apparent expertise of the contributors here, it’s difficult to credit that Huhne is still favourite in the markets. Looks like Campbell is a comfortable winner and I’m getting stuck in heavily!
1 Ming to win
2 46.4%
3 58.1%
Hughes
36.3
50.9
133 - Don’t get too carried away with Ming as flavour of the day Marchgale - all three candidates have been strong odds-on favourites at one time or another - punters are like every other sector of the community - sheep!Then again, if John W knows anything at all - then Ming’s current odds do look attractive.
Ming
60%
N/A
Ming
42% 1st prefs
54% after 2nd prefs
david(s).. That’s just the point - in Eire and NI they don’t do what you say… If two candidates can be eliminated on the same count without affecting the result - they are both eliminated. If all Ballard’s votes had gone to Bruce, he could not have overhauled Hughes. Why did they bother with a redundant count?
RedCrosby - Obviously they didn´t. Youare quite right. They eliminated both and skipped a stage.
Would I be right in thinking that all (or most) of the Lib Dem regulars here are predicting a Huhne victory, while all the Tories are predicting Campbell? Since almost all the votes are now in, there is little point in calling it wrong, is there, oh ye Tories? Lay your spin aside, jsut for once…..
1. Campbell to win
2. 37.63% first prefs
3. 49.9999999999% overall
Ming has won by a whisker. 2nd prefs from Simon (who will get about 20+%) will break about 60-40 for Ming - but with a number going void (i.e. no 2nd pref stated). Chris needs to be about 5% ahead on 1st prefs to win. It will be v. close on first prefs, but a win for Ming by about 4% overall. By the way, turnout is surprisingly low.
John13 - no they didn’t, unless Wikipedia are making up the figures, which I doubt. Just curious - it makes no difference to the final result, but it is not the “orthodox” way of counting in STV.
40% CH
34% MC
25% SH
52% CH
48% MC
Archibald. You seem a little too certain! Is there something you should be sharing?
Huhne
41.4%
52.3%
Regrettably, because Dynamic Dave Cameron versus two old sweaties would be just fine by me
“old sweaties”
Did you mean ’sweeties’?
141. John 13 - no. It’s hard to tell who’s who in some cases, but among those LD names I recognise there’s a majority for Ming.
Ming to win
1. 37%
2. 52%
John Day
1. Menȝies Campbell to win
2. 39% on first round
3. 55% on second round
1. Huhne to win
2.38% first round
3.52% 2nd
A Huhne victory is in the offing
First round- 36.8%
Second round- 50.2%
1. Sir Menzies Campbell
2. 39%
3. 54%
ming
40.5
53.6
Campbell
37.6% first preferences
50.3% final total
Hughes:
27.0 first preferences
0.0 final total
Following the scoring system strictly, if he goes out with (say) 28.3 in the first round, I would score 1.3. Not excatly in the spirit of the game I know….
Colm, as per my post at 108, Hughes can’t be both the predicted winner and eliminated after the first round, so this entry wouldn’t count.
Huhne will sneak it and will get 37% first preferences and 51.5% overall.
158 - fair enough. I wasn’t being serious anyway, but it’s always good to be aware of potential loopholes.
Campbell
39.8% first prefs
52.9% after transfers
160 - no worries. Feel free to have another entry though.
1 Ming
2 37.5%
3 54.5%
1) Ming Campbell
2) 36.7%
3) 51.2%
1) Huhne
2) 38.2%
3) 51.2%
1) Huhne
2) 37.5%
3) 51.5%
1) Campbell
2) 39.2%
3) 53.4%
1) Campbell
2) 40%
3) 51%
1) Huhne
2) 37.2%
3) 50.1%
1. Ming
2. 44%
3. 56%
Rod - the reason why there was a round three last time was purely for publicity purposes. It was felt that journos wouldn’t understand the elimination process unless it was spelt out to them stage by stage.
But you are absolutely right of course.
Don’t know if we’re allowed to amed entries, but have done maths on mine, and I’ve given Ming too big a jump on second prefs.
Could I amend entry 90 to Ming, 42%, 56% please.
1. Ming
2. 43%
3. 54%
1. Who the new leader will be?
2. The percentage of the first preference votes your predicted new leader wins
3. The percentage of the overall votes (after re-distribution of second preferences) your predicted new leader wins)
1 - Ming Campbell
2 - 37.2%
3 - 54.5%
Simon Hughes
33
51
1-Chris Huhne
2-36.8%
3-50.9%
Sir Menzies Campbell
37.5% of first prefs
52.6% of final count
Re: various messages: In 1999 there were 5 candidates, and 4 rounds of counting when there should have been only 2 (because candidate B had more first-preference votes than C + D + E combined). At the time I phoned the Lib Dem office to ask why this had been done - with only 1 candidate being eliminated at a time - and I was told that it was just to make it clearer. I do not know whether the Lib Dem constitution and/or party election rules specify explicitly that it should be done this way, or whether it was a decisdion made for PR (no pun intended) purposes. With reference to “how it is done” in Ireland, there is the proviso that a candidate who cannot win may still stay in the contest, and receive votes transferred from others, if such votes are capable of putting him/her above the 12.5% threshold for retaining his/her deposit.
As far as the competition is concerned, I predict 1. Ming 2. 37% 3. 52%.
Re: 108. You say that those who predicted less than 50% for the winner in the second round will have their predictions re-calculated to be the relevant percentage of the votes in the final round, rather than the percentage of the votes in the first round. But the same assumption (that the percentage given in answer to question 3 was intended to be the percentage of the first round total) may have been made by some of those who gave more than 50% as their answer to question 3. For myself, I always consider percentages in AV elections as being the percentage of the total turnout in the first round, so that the total number of votes (*including the non-transferable votes*) always remains the same. In the wording of the competition at the top of this page, you referred to the “percentage of the *overall* votes”, not the “percentage of the votes in the second round”. I would have taken this wording to be in agreement with my method of using percentages, but you then contradicted yourself later on.
Therefore, you should
(a) allow *everybody* to re-submit their answers, not just those who said less than 50% for answer 3;
(b) you should have stated the rules of the competition clearly in the first place (which you did not do);
(c) declare the whole competition null-and-void, on the grounds that there is now not enough time for everybody to re-submit their answers before tomorrow afternoon;
(d) ask the Lib Dems to re-run their whole leadership election from scratch, so that there will be sufficient time for people to submit their answers in response to a *proper* competition, with *properly* defined rules;
(e) declare that your incompetence in the wording of the competition - and any losses accruing to competitors as a result - are God’s punishment for those who indulge in betting;
(f) ritually disembowel yourself as a punishment.
First Preferences
Sir Menzies Campbell (Fife North East): 23,264
Simon Hughes (Southwark North and Bermondsey): 12,081
Chris Huhne (Eastleigh): 16,691
Second Preferences
Sir Menzies Campbell (Fife North East): 6,733
Chris Huhne (Eastleigh): 5,937
Overall Total
Sir Menzies Campbell (Fife North East): 29,967
Chris Huhne (Eastleigh): 21,628
I didn’t get the result from local radio, because they stupidly started broadcasting only half way through the declaration.
I didn’t get the result from Ceefax or Teletext, because it wasn’t there.
I didn’t get the result from the BBC1 news at 3:20pm, because they idiotically didn’t tell us any figures.
So I had to come here to find the result.
And now you are telling me that 12,670 out of 12,081 Hughes votes got transferred?!?!?