That secret YouGov poll - the final postscript
February 28th, 2006-
Were respondees conditioned to put Ming number one?
With, thankfully, just a few hours to go before the Lib Dem ballot closes the acting leader, Ming Campbell, is now now firmly back in the favourite slot.
All the sentiment today has been in his favour and against Chris Huhne who has been odds-on since 
the only public YouGov members’ poll three weeks ago put him 4% ahead.
-
Part of the weakening of the Huhne position has been based on the argument that respondees were “conditioned” into putting the ex-MEP as first choice because of the questions that were put before they got to the voting intention section. These, it was argued, put those being surveyed into a pro-Huhne state of mind.
But did the same thing happened in the earlier poll - said to have been funded by a Campbell-backer which was not published. Information that purports to be from this survey has reached me this evening that, if true, shows that a similar approach was taken with this survey. The only difference is that the conditioning seems to be in favour of Ming.
Although I cannot confirm its authenticity I am publishing it because the person who has sent it has revealed her identity to me although she has asked to remain anonymous. She says that she took part in the survey and saved the pages.
Before the 432 people in YouGov1 filled in the voting intention question they are said to have been asked “How important are each of the following qualities for a leader of the Liberal Democrats?”. They were given five options ranging from “very” to “not” important.
1.Good name recognition amongst the general public
2. Seen as honest and consistent
3. Seen as a serious person
4. Seen as a potential Prime Minister
5. Seen as a potential statesman on the international stage
6. Has a large majority in their own seat
7. A track record of success outside Parliament
8. A track record of success inside Parliament
9. Backing and support of parliamentary colleagues
10. Backing and support of the wider Liberal Democrat party
-
The critical factor here is that even with these suggested pre-voting intention questions the poll’s finding were not favourable enough to Ming to make his team want to publish the results.
What’s important about both these surveys is that they took place just after the vast bulk of the Lib Dem membership had received their ballots. They give a snap-shot of what opinion was like at the critical time when many of them were casting their votes.
So who has won? I stick with my view that this is too close to call but I’m just inclined to Huhne. Thanks to getting on the MEP after a tip-off from a comment by Alex on the site when the price was 200/1 I make a lot of money whatever happens. I’m not going to risk my large certain profit by going all-in on either Campbell or Huhne.
Roll on Thursday and pay-day.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Mike. Someone
has backed Ming with £2K @ 1.92.
Tabman raiding the piggy bank me thinks.
Jack — really? It looks to me now like quite the opposite, that someone has laid Ming at that price. Make up your mind Tabman
Any more info Jack?
I’m really screwed if something extraordinary happens and Oaten gets it. I “laid him” (in the betting use of the term of course) at 4.5-6 and have a nasty large red number against his name on my Betfair trading screen.
Tell me I can sleep easily tonight.
“have a nasty large red number against his name”
Not a number 2 by any chance?
I’ll get my coat…
3, Mike Smithson, it has been reported in “Hustler Weekly” that a large number of rent-boys have applied to the Liberal Democratic Party in recent weeks.
Jack -look at Betfair again. Someone has offered £2000 at 1.92 - i.e they have layed Ming - which not even Icarus has taken.
Tabman has a wife and children, I dont think he is as stupid as some of us.
4/5 Chrisco.
:lol:
3 Mike. Surprisingly little. It’s like the lull before the storm …. the last half hour before the count. The mood music that I continue to detect is a Ming win …….. and unless all camps have read this so desperately badly that is what will happen.
You normally find that Lib Dems read elections very well and the stories of piles of cash shifting from bookies into shifty Lib Dem wallets are legion. However I haven’t heard that was the case in Dunfermline …. which snuck up on us all so quickly that in reality few expected the result !!
7 Icarus. Quite correct … I’m speed reading 4 screens presently !! …… a trip to spec savers coming on, methinks.
It’s a fair point to make in your article, Mike.
As someone who filled in both the disputed YouGov surveys, I can only say that it was immediately clear to me that the 2nd one was funded by Chris’s team - as I posted on this site just after filling in the survey: http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/02/07/yougov-poll-leak-its-very-close/#comment-159506
The first one I assumed was from the Torygraph - they seemed quite Torygraph questions.
The bigger issue is this, though - why are YouGov putting questions in such an unobjective way? Others have said the second poll was potentially skewed by the ordering of the questions; you’re suggesting the first one mjight have been. Net result: I’m far more mistrustful of YouGov’s credibility.
Of course if they come up trumps on Thur that last comment will look damn silly with hindsight
But Joe, it’s the client who sets what questions they want to be asked.
Shameless plug for those who receive large payouts on Betfair on Thursday — consider re-investing in the new market on Next General Election, which includes the option ‘No overall majority’.
The market has had a sticky start, but the ‘no overall majority’ option looks tasty at better than evens (1.14/1 at the moment), given decreasing Govt popularity, new boundaries removing seats from Labour, and the presence of many dozens of LD MPs who are able to dig into their own seats no matter what. Arguably all these factors add up to a ‘perfect storm’ for a hung parliament for the first time — other punters may have underestimated the likelihood of this.
Hmmm - interesting. I must be quite suggestable, because I took both You Gov polls and voted for Ming on the first and Huhne on the second, so that rather proves your point! (Voted for Huhne in reality, by the way, but still expect Ming to win…)
11 - fine, but YouGov depends on its track record (which I will be the first to concede is a good one) for its credibility. It’s high profile polls like this on which many will judge YouGov (even if they’re a small part of the company’s business).
Anyway, all will be revealed in 40 hours. Fewer if you’re Jack W.
OT: It’s looking a bit sticky for Tessa Jowell. But she’s not officially doomed until The Excellent Roger says she’s safe (cf Blunkett II).
No Chrisco. It is not the client - it is a combination. Good researchers are beholden to advise when question wording or question ordering are leading and should refuse to take part in any survey that is deliberately leading. It is also against the MRS code to indulge in ‘push polling’. I will not comment on YouGov as I have no access to either the questionnaire or the results other than what is written here, so this is a broader response to your comment about it being up to the client.
I would however add that there is a danger for anyone or party in indulging in ‘push polling’ for themselves - there is a good chance that they will delude themselves when they get the results.
Anything You want Guv?
P.S. Good to have you back Graham
14 Joe Fairw. Thursday is a tricky day for me ….. I couldn’t really cancel appointments and a family brunch on the basis of the Lib Dem count and smuggling info onto PB.com …… could I….?
Anyhow ….I’ll do my best ….. visions of a mobile vibrating over the Roast Beef !!
Thanks Chris. I read all the time - but polls are few and far between now and so the impartial researcher must stay in his box for ‘proper’ times to comment
20.”the impartial researcher must stay in his box for ‘proper’ times to comment ”
during not “proper” times, do you have split personalities à la Dr Jekill/Mr Hide and the “evil” part takes the place of the “impartial researcher”?
My unscientific survey of 30 lib dems , who had all voted, at todays meeting is…
Nobody knows.
20 Graham. In contrast to “improper” times ! ….. always more interesting.
23. Did you show them Stephen Tall’s photo? I’m sure it would have been enough to swing them….somewhere
23.Jack, in improper times, people make improper things…..
I try to keep my improper comments for my wife Jack.
As for Dr Jeckyll and Mr Hyde Andrea, I’m sure I don’t know what you’re insinuating…:-)
20 - Yes, Welcome back Graham…
25 Andrea. You clearly have greater experience of “improper things” than most…… and certainly me … as I am virgin on pure as the driven snow.
For confirmation…
The questions listed in Mike’s original posting are certainly the ones which I answered when I completed the poll. At the time, I felt like it was ‘pushing’ a certain view of what a leader might be like, which, for example, mightn’t be compatable with a small parliamentary majority.
28 - A veritable Caesar’s wife are you, Jack? No wonder Andrea fancies you…
Caesar’s wife = ready for anything.
31 Thanks for the translation…
(Actually, Anna, the original saying is that Caesar’s wife has to be above suspicion - but I pefer my version.)
32 - That’s Augustus Carp’s expurgated version.
33 That was the saying I knew… Personal preference, but I prefer the original
31 Augustus. Caesar’s wife was clearly in the boy scouts … dib dib !!
8 Few expected a Lib Dem win except the few who staked 25K between us on them winning!
Extraordinary how the markets have shifted 20% in Ming’s favour over the past 30 hours,especially in the absence of any polls and given that most Lib Dem members probably voted a week or more ago - can it really all be down to Jack W’s prognostications, countered somewhat by our host’s somewhat unconvincing gut feel for Huhne or could it be a case of “someone always knows and someone always tells”?
30 Just noticed… You DO spend a lot of time pondering Andrea’s love-life. Still just keeping your file up to date?
39 Anna - But surely AHM’s straight isnt he?
37/38 PTB/BBB. I refer you to each other.
G’nite all …. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Alastair @ 27. Good to see you again too. Re a conversation we had recently, I noticed that Zac Goldsmith is a big player in the Conservative ‘infiltration’ of the ‘rebels’ in the NFU, and perhaps it indicates that he is becoming more deeply involved in the Party. On the back of that I have a couple of questions for you.
1) Does that mean that the Conservatives are seriously changing direction (rather than a change of image), and if so how vociferous will be the cage rattling from the right? What is the calculation regarding losses off the right of the party vis a vis perceived gains in the ‘centre’.
2) How far will Cameron take the positioning as leader of ‘rebel’ groups? And is there a danger in backing too many mavericks in such situations.
I don’t know what you know and how much is communicated to members like you about such things.
40 Twould have thought so… I think it’s more a match-making thing…
Hello politicalbetting.com, We’ve just opened one of these fancy Betfair accounts. Can you help with something? The £1800 at 1.92 foe Menzies Campbell on the lefthand side of the market info - is that all that’s available or will more appear if we press “Back” ?
See my post on previous thread. Chris has run a great campaign, but hasmn’t quite pulled it off. Confidence in Ming camp is reinforced by a mammoth turnout in the areas where they have strength (e.g. a near 100% turnout in the 33 seats held by Ming supporters). Expect Ming’s price to come in further on Wednesday and for him to be heavy odds on by Thursday morning.
I think there is some wishful thinking, even amongst “neutrals”, that Huhne will win. I’m not putting this down to the dream of a 200-1 bet paying off, but more to the fact that in an FA Cup Final that went to penalties between Man Utd and Accrington Stanley, most “neutrals” would want Accrington to win. Huhne is Accrington Stanley. Has done amazingly well to get this close. Could conceivably still win it. But the smart money would be on Man Utd to win the shoot out.
Campbell to win by around 4% after transfers. Maybe more.
45 For verily, it is written, “The race is not always to the swiftest, nor the fight to the strongest, but it’s the way to bet!”
44 As beginners,suggest you adopt a business-like approach in this matter - equip yourselves with a kettle of boiling water and proceed with care.After making suitable enquiries, email me with your findings and I’ll attempt to offer further advice.
45 HM, and how does anyone actually know what the turnout is in any particular constituency? Even the people opening the nevelopes won’t know which constituency they are from.
Despite what LibDem posters have written on the previous thread I viewed the Daily Politics again and I am afraid Ming the Muddle Headed did indeed use as a defence of his voting on English matters three arguments that will cause him serious problems as LibDem leader:
1.His voters knew what they were doing when they elected him (to vote on any matter that comes up at Westminster). So it is legitimate for Scottish voters to set English policy?
2.That there may be an argument for reviewing the relationship between Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff. England seems to have disappeared again.
3.There are people in Fife who have relations in England and people who have moved to England so the boundaries of what is an English matter are blurred. Well, no its not, its in a statute. On that logic as lots of English have relatives in Scotland and many English people now live in Scotland it is OK for Westminster to start blurring the boundaries on Holyrood’s patch and using the UK Parliament to set Scottish education policy? I think not.
He seemed totally oblivious to an issue that is growing rapidly in the English electorate’s consciousness. I have had only one letter on this in a year and that was from a Scotsman he said (to demonstrate this was not a significant issue). Well, as an MP for a Scottish constituency that is hardly surprising, is it?
If this is his sensitivity to England’s democratic deficit then the LibDems are in for interesting times.
45 - agree with 48.
And anyway I can’t imagine any confidence in the Ming camp is based on your prediction of a 52-48% win in the 2nd ballot. (A 4% margin is nothing.)
If they’re confident, it’s because they’re expecting to do better than that!
43 - A good Christian girl like you should know better than to gossip like that. Respect your elders and your betters!
Evening all. I agree that turnout and backing by members with a Lib Dem MP will be crucial, and Ming has a big lead here.
Think turnout will be *low* overall. This may favour Huhne but I’m not sure.
Neutrally I want to know this: what has Chris Huhne showed he has to offer except a fresh face? Cameron promised a new brand of politics, new priorities, new attitudes, new direction. All I’ve seen from CH on this is new Green policies and greater economic competence, and a slickness of campaigning. These are all good things, and make him an asset to the Lib Dems, but I’m not sure he’ll have wowed the thousnads the way Cameron did. We’ll see. It will be close, the fact is that there is no obvious successor to Kennedy, but I am confident of a decent Ming victory, with my man Hughes performing creditably.
O/T - So I guess Tessa will be out by the weekend, now that she has Blair’s “full support”. I remember well the kiss of death that was from John Major…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4759120.stm
Right - that which I said would come to pass has happened - Ming is now favourite.
This will be embarrassing if Ming loses but that is what happens!
52 - I think the attraction of Huhne has been that he is serious about it. We have had seven years under the leadership of a thoroughly likeable man who wasn’t ultimately a serious contender. Before that we have had a series of people who haven’t been good in their way but haven’t been “conventional” politicians (perhaps Steel is an exception but only partially).
In this election, Hughes was the choice of the romantics but it is sheer madness to think of him as a serious candidate to be PM. Ming was a class act but very much distinct from others on the scene - very old school really.
What Huhne offered was a serious, and not entirely likeable, modern politician. He had the sheer nerve to go for it and has ruthlessly executed a plan by courting those who liked Hughes’ radicalism but worried about his wild-eyed image and those who liked Campbell’s seriousness and gravitas but worried about his age.
While the Tories and Labour are becoming more suspicious of the political animal, the Lib Dems have been more inclined to search one out. The political animal is the product of natural selection - you can find things to dislike about him but he is designed to succeed.
Incidentally, I think you are mistaken on David Cameron. He successfully convinced the party that he would LOOK as if he was delivering a new priorities and new attitudes. If you believe Tory posters here, that is simply window dressing and nothing has changed. His absurd new paper tends to confirm that viewpoint.
reply to 48 - because each of Ming’s supporting MPs were tasked with getting their constituency members to vote….virtually all of them have
How on earth does 45 know what the turn out figures are from individual constituiencies? its just a pile of envelopes at the moment. even when they are opened you won’t be able to tell.
cobblers
Hmm - intersting - I’m seriously out of pocket if Huhne wins.
I’ve invested my winnings from Dunfermline in mainly Ming (but took some silly odds on Simon at around 20 after my dad said he’d changed his view after the Edinburgh hustings.).
I’m tempted to think Huhne will come third ala Ballard and Rendel but I can’t find an efficient way of doing this. Any thoughts?
42 - Graham. Yes, ZG is becoming ever more deeply involved in the party, and as I said to you in our recent exchange of emails, I think it is quite likely he will be our candidate for the new seat of Devon Central. Not sure about his involvement in the NFU, but I’m sure he has his fingers into a great many different pies.
To answer your questions:
1 - Yes, I believe the shift to the centre is heartfelt. It signifies the re-emergence of the One-Nation wing of the party that has been dormant for quite some time. Of course there will be some cage-rattling from the right, and I’m sure some of the malcontents who contribute to these pages will disagree with me, but there is no obvious alternative home for them politically, and the there is a remarkable will to win abroad in the party - something that I have not seen since 1987. We may well lose some to apathy, but I think the number will be quite small and will be massively offset by ground we make up in the centre, among the ABs who used to form the backbone of our support but who have drifted away since 1992.
2 - I’m not really sure what you mean when you talk about Cameron taking on the mantle of a ‘rebel’ leader. He’s not a rebel at all - he is the duly elected Leader of the Conservative Party put in place with a massive vote. He has a mandate to make whatever changes he deems necessary to restore the party to government, and though I do detect some anxiety (which is natural along with any change) among my circle of Conservative contacts and friends, there is also a broad sense of optimism that real progress is, at long last, being made.
Hopefully this covers what you were looking for. If you want to discuss it further, do please drop me a line on alastairmatlock at gmail.com!
58 - You could put money on the forecast - 50/1 on Hughes/Campbell and 14/1 on Campbell/Hughes is worth a flutter if you think Huhne will come third. Personally I doubt he will but at these odds a small compensatory bet may be worthwhile…
Thanks to all who have confirmed that these were the questions they answered when they took the poll.
Since the orignal “leaked” poll story I’ve received four or five other pieces of alleged “hard” information which I have ignored and I felt I was taking a chance with going with this one.
Like all things it comes down to the source and where I do not know the person my confidence is undermined is the email address or other data provided is unclear.
The original “Webpoll2″ release of the second preferences from the first poll came from someone using a webmail Lycos account and the IP number indicated that it had been transmitted to me by Vodafone.
O/T Mike - why have you posted a photo of Ali Goldsworthy’s scary teeth on this thread?
I started out with nothing, and I still have most of it. …just a silly joke, couldn’t help myself
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