politicalbetting.com

But good news for whoever wins the Lib Dem contest

Two new polls this morning paint a very different picture of how the Tories and Labour are doing but both show a Lib Dem recovery.

So with only five day left before their leadership contest ends the Lib Dems will be pleased to see that all the pollsters are now showing significant recoveries compared with what things were like in the immediate aftermath of the Charles Kennedy, Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes revelations.

The YouGov changes are broadly in line with what ICM recorded in the Guardian on Tuesday - the Tories staying relatively constant but Labour slipping back as the Lib Dems recover.

Mori continues its reputation as the most variable of the pollsters. Its last four polls have shown: November LAB+10, December LAB -9: January 17th LAB level: January January 23rd LAB -2.

Pollster variations since November 2005
Mori LAB lead/deficit in a range from +10 to -9
YouGov LAB lead/deficit in a range +2 to -2
Populus LAB lead/deficit in a range +8 to -1
ICM LAB lead/deficit in a range +5 to -4

The main reason for the differences is down to the methodologies the pollsters use:

Mike Smithson

But leading Tory donors are not happy

When David Cameron was first elected Tory leader just two and a half months ago he raised a few eyebrows both within and outside his party when he appeared to make the environment and global warming his first
priority.

For this has just not been perceived as a Tory issue. It was Margaret Thatcher, after all, who was attributed with the comment in 1986 that “any man who finds himself on a bus at the age of 26 can account himself a failure”. What she makes of her pedalling successor who knows?

Yet from the full data set of the latest ICM poll, just out, this is an area where he scores well above Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. For a Tory leader to be polling substantially better than Labour in this key policy area is a major shift.

Asked which of the three would “do most to protect the environment” it was Cameron 33%; Blair 24%: Brown 19%. With Lib Dem supporters it was Cameron 38%; Blair 21%: Brown 26%

The overall sample split 63-34% in their support for green taxes - something that might encourage Chris Huhne’s campaign for the Lib Dem leadership. What might cause Cameron problems is that just 61% of Tory supporters were enthusiastic about the idea compared with 64% of the Labour people and 78% of the Lib Dems.

If the numbers stay like this might we see Gordon Brown’s “make-over” extend to include riding a bike as well?

But not everybody is happy in Camp Conservative.

The poll comes as the founder of the spread-betting firm IG Index and multi-million pound donor, Stuart Wheeler, has, according to the Telegraph, dismissed the environmental commission set up by Mr Cameron, which includes the green campaigner Zac Goldsmith, as “pie in the sky”.

Another leading Tory donor - the founder of Dixons Lord Kalms - today raises public doubts about policy direction that Cameron is taking. In a Guardian interview he says “there is a lot we have concerns about”. This comes after UKIP’s Nigel Farage said “We’re parking our tanks on David Cameron’s abandoned lawn.”

ICM’s data-set once again showed how the raw data from phone surveys is much more likely to be Labour than the population as a whole. A total 287 of those interviewed said they had voted for Labour last May compared with 173 who had supported the Tories.

Lib Dem Leadership betting. Chris Huhne’s price has continued to ease while Ming Campbell has tightened. The numbers as at 0400 were Huhne 0.78/1 and Campbell 1.56/1.

Mike Smithson

Who’ll lose most if “vote farming” is banned?

With the outcome of this May’s local elections taking on an increasing importance a key factor could be whether there is a clamp-down on party workers getting involved in the postal vote process. For when turnout drops to 30% or below winning the postal vote battle becomes even more crucial.

Now, according to a Guardian report, the Society of Local Authority Chief Executives are pressing the government to put a “national concordat” in place to stop activists interfering with the postal ballot process.

It is reported that ministers will announce a national voluntary agreement before May but those responsible for administering elections believe that there has to be compulsion.

For at the heart of the problem is that the process of voting by post is quite cumbersome for the voter and if the party machines do not get involved then far fewer people will cast their ballots in this way thus reducing turnout even further.

First you have to fill in forms to apply for a postal vote.
Then when you get your pack you have to mark the ballot paper and then put it into envelope number one.
Then you have to fill in a form and get your signature witnessed by someone who has to provide their address.
Finally you have to put all the bits together into envelope number two and ensure that it is put in the mail.

Is it any wonder that even at the General Election only three out of five people who had applied for postal votes in some seats actually used them.

But last May, in the post-Birmingham environment, activists were much less likely to visit those registered as postal voters to make sure that everything way OK.

For many on the postal list the problem of finding a witness can be critical. It is here where a normal follow-up by the party machine could be very helpful. An enthusiastic party worker can take away all the hassle of getting all the bits of paper together, act as a witness, and then ensure that the package is put in the post.

It is this process that those responsible for running elections want to stop. For there are fears that if the party workers call round to collect the postal ballot packages then they might put the elector under undue influence and even fail to send on those “not voting the right way”.

Labour believes that it is the main beneficiary from moves to boost turnout and is opposed to anything that makes postal voting more difficult. But there could be a political cost if it’s not seen to be taking action after last year’s Birmingham vote fraud case.

My guess is that Ministers will resist a compulsory approach leaving open the possibility of another Birmingham. For if Labour is right about the electoral impact of easier postal voting this could affect the results on May 4th.

Mike Smithson

Labour drops two points to the Lib Dems

The February ICM survey for the Guardian, which was one of the key points in the PB.C prediction competition, has CON 37%(nc): LAB 34%(-2): LD 21%(+2).

So the Conservative lead over Labour returns to where it was at the start of the year and the Lib Dems go back to the share they had before Charles Kennedy resigned.

What seems to be happening is that the Tories have moved up 4-5 points in almost all the polls under their new leader and this is being sustained. The actual position in relation to Labour is determined by how the aggregate Lab-Lib Dem total splits. This is a solid 54-55% and if the Lib Dems are up then the Tory lead is greater and if it is down then Labour is in the lead.

The next poll should be the February YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph. In recent months the internet pollster has recorded much lower Lib Dem shares than ICM. Thus in the last survey the Tories were on 37% - the same as today’s ICM figure - but the Lib Dem were down at 15% resulting in a Labour share of 39%.

The General Election betting, which we have not looked at for a while, has Labour at 0.91/1, and the Tories at 1.12/1.

The 2006 PBC competion entries are listed here.

Mike Smithson

Time to back Ming at 2/1

What is happening on the Lib Dem leadership betting markets? After a week when the prices on Chris Huhne and Ming Campbell hardly moved - which itself seemed odd - we’ve seen a huge swing to Huhne during the past 36 hours as the chart above shows.

This graph traces the best betting price shown as implied probability every six hours for the past three days and the move today has been extraordinary. A lot of money has been going on tightening the Chris Huhne price and allowing the Ming level to weaken.

Is this just a natural betting market or are there one or two individuals with deep pockets who are determined to reinforce Huhne’s position as betting favourite?

We do not know. In the absence of any new polling material we think that the current Ming price at 2/1 is good value and represents a good way of reducing exposure for those who stand to win a lot on Huhne.

Mike Smithson

Could we see a better measure of Cameron vs Brown?

We are now in the final part of February and the only polls we have seen this month have been the usual Populus survey in the Times and the much misreported Sunday Times YouGov survey eight days ago.

What we have not had is a proper voting intention question if Brown was leader - a measure, surely, while will increase in importance in the coming months. The last time this was put was in early January in an ICM poll in the News of the World. Then Cameron’s Tory’s were three points ahead - one point less than against Blair.

The Sunday Times YouGov survey sought to do this by deleting any reference to the Lib Dems and made it a straight preference - Brown or Cameron. The results were interesting but were not a voting intention as many parts of the media tried to suggest including the Spectator which had almost a whole article based on this misconception.

Given the uncertainty over who will take over as Lib Dem leader it’s quite hard for a pollster to devise a question that measures this properly. ICM usually put it like this: “Suppose the Conservative Party were to be led by David Cameron, Labour by Gordon Brown and the Liberal Democrats by ???????. If there were to be a General Election tomorrow how would you vote, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party?”

ICM’s monthly survey for the Guardian should be out within the next couple of days and it will be interesting to see if they have ducked this for February. The actual Tory-Lab margin is one of the points in our 2006 competition. The entries are stored in one of our new permananent pages - see list in the right-hand column.

Also likely to be out this week is the February YouGov poll for the Telegraph and we might see the month’s MORI poll. This has recently been carried by the FT.

What I am really hoping for is a newspaper-commissioned Lib Dem members’ leadership poll ahead of the ballot closure on March 1st. Surely this is one that the Telegraph would like to commission? Here’s hoping!

The Lib Dem leadership betting has seen a further move to Chris Huhne and away from Ming Campbell after prices had been almost constant for a week. Huhne has now tightened 0.65/1 from 0.81.

Mike Smithson