The final PB.C betting chart on the Lib Dem race
March 1st, 2006
As a matter of record here is the final betting chart on the 2006 Lib Dem leadership race. This is based on the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices.
I like them because they do graphically illustrate changing perceptions over time.
For all but four and a half weeks since the polls closed on May 5th 2005 we have had a leadership race taking place and our traffic has increased so that on most weekdays more than 10,000 individual users have come onto the site. In that period since 10pm on election night there have been 130,431 comments on the site bringing the total to 178,835 since we started.
Thanks for your support. BTW whatever are we going to talk about next week?
Mike Smithson
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Time to turn our attention to the mid terms in the U.S. Where things are starting to look really interesting. The distancing of Republican candidates from the President is becoming a very striking feature and is a sign, surely, of the party beginning to smell trouble. The loss of the House of Representatives is not impossible and could be an interesting bet. Anyone any news on current prices? It would make a change from the Lib Dem obsession on here, understandable as that maybe, given how close the race seems to be at this stage.
Early days yet, but Tradesports has already established markets on Senate and House control, as well as all individual Senate and Governor races. Not much liquidity at this stage.
Currently Rep. probability of retaining the Senate is around 85%, House control in the low 70s.
Most interesting governor race is probably in California - Schwarzenegger a bit better than evens, despite all his problems.
Key Senate race is Pennsylvania, where Democrats needs to make a gain - probability at some 67% (and I have put money on it).
- Election in Italy in April, but interest at pb.c perhaps too thin? Prodi clear favorite.
How about - the next Cabinet Minister to have to spend more time with his or her family, after Tessa Jowell?
2. Governor Rendell of Pennsylvania (D) is seeking re-election, but he has a fight on his hands against a former Pittsburgh Steelers player
For longer term significance, keep a close eye on the gubernatorial races: we have all seen the usefulness of having a friendly governor in the State Capitol when it comes to the Presidential, and significantly Florida, Iowa and Ohio are all up for grabs in November. Ohio will probably swing Democrat; Tom Vilsack of Iowa is gearing up for ‘08 so his seat is open; if the Democrats hold on to it then it is probably going to be a bad night for the Republicans. Massachussets is probably going to be a good shot for the Dems as well, though they might lose Wisconsin.
Now, I must get on to Tradesports to check out the odds…
I can’t get into Tradesports for some reason, but if it is a binary bet I think there is value in selling Rendell at 67; I think it is going to much closer than that margin suggests.
Does anyone know how to get the Indy’s articles for free off the net? I don’t want to have to buy the whole thing, but £1 for an article seems a bit steep (gnashes teeth in a tight fisted kind of a way). Why do the Indy do this - if the Guardian and Times can have the majority of the newspaper free, why can’t they?
Mike - as a relative newcomer to the site I’m somewhere amongst some of those 130,431 posts. I’d just like to say thanks to you for hosting the site and creating the sapce where so much interesting stuff is shared. Admittedly there are some seriously deranged individuals on the site, but I guess once their leadership election is over they’ll be a bit quieter again. (joke)
I guess I should add a political slant to the sycophancy of this post and just say “Respect!” to you…
6: As an ex-Indy website freelance I can tell that it’s because the site is run on a shoestring by one man and a (very talented) dog, and it has to pay its way. The portfolio method of charging small amounts for individual stories, or packages for the lot, is working very well - readership was barely dented and it’s generating an income. The only thing that narks me is that the Bridget Jones updates don’t seem to be included in the standard package!
Or as David Cameron would put it, “Keep it real…”
Maybe Labour could do us the great service of arranging a leadership contest?
Some spread betting on the May elections ? Only 8 weeks away…
To talk about next week:-
-Next Lib Dem leader but one
-Timing of Blair’s departure
-Local elections
-American politics
-Next secretary general of UN
-Eurovision song contest (which is after all very political in voting!)
What’s the odds on a ’snap’ election within 6 months of Tone stepping down- using the honeymoon ‘bounce’ as an excuse to go for a mandate?
13: before Cameron gets a sensible set of policies and the polls really get away from GB?
14. Same old Tories, same old story.
The Chancellor is streets ahead as the NOW poll shows. Attempts by Mr. Smithson and others to criticise this poll won’t wash. It just tells you all what you don’t want to hear. How inconvenient that Brown is preferred to Cameron as PM?
Not long now until the budget - my favourite day of the year. One hour of the Chancellor without interruption!
14 . I’m not sure - its only been 9 months since an election - people will be peeved about having to get out of their armchairs twice in a short period - could backfire on a low turnout.
15. LOL
Mike - for the first time in my life I’d like to echo the words of a Tory - True Blue @ Number 7 - this is an exceptional site for political anoraks. Your missives are first class and I enjoy tremendously reading the musings - deranged or otherwise - from other posters.
One last time: Ming to winnnnnnnn
A shambles of an interview between Humphrys and DC on Radio 4 earlier. DC kept losing his rag and was very shrill at times, whilst Humphrys kept goading him more and more by asking questions and then interrupting as soon as DC opened his mouth. Although he did ask him some killer questions too. I’m afraid DC didn’t come out of it very well at all, although it was as blatantly biased an interview as you could ever wish to find, particularly compared to the recent Today interview with Brown where he was asked probably 3 questions in a 15 minute slot and basically given free rein to bore us all into submission for his allotted period of time…
Assume GB is leader after the October 2007 conference. Big poll bounce, tax breaks in March 2008, go to the polls April-June 2008.
Alternatively, big row with Tony sometime soon, GB resigns, contested leadership election. Alan Johnson comes through the middle, Poll later this year?
15 - Professor, you mean the NotW poll where 50.1% of the sample were Labour voters? The one where 46% thought GB was “arrogant”?
12. SBS, “Eurovision song contest (which is after all very political in voting!) ”
doy you mean the fact that countries for East Europe always end up voting for each other?
22 - I certainly do! There are also other alliances: Finland / Estonia; the Baltics; Scandinavia; Cyprus / Greece; France / Monaco / Belgium /Switzerland; Germany / Austria; Russia / Ukraine…
Italy have so much sense in boycotting it.
23 - and Lebanon wanted to enter last year, but were barred as they were going to schedule a commercial break during the Israeli entry… you don’t get much more political than that!
15 yawn….
Go back and check the data yourself Prof..
You don’t know what you are talking about (as usual !)
[23] Er… because there aren’t any other countries that speak Italian as a first language?
A pedant writes: Isn’t there an Italian-speaking canton in Switzerland?
Can’t help half-wishing Hughes would win and make us all look silly!
I think LibDems can look forward to a little poll bounce shortly - new leader on the back of the by-election should be good for a surgelet.
People could always debate the Education Bill revolt, though I think it’s fizzling out for Second Reading: I know numerous erstwhile rebels who say they’ll go along with it now. Probably will be more excitement at Report Stage when people pick fights on specific clauses, though. The tiny majority (4) in the Lords against the terrorism glorification clause pretty well guarantees that they’ll fold in the next ping-pong round, so we’re running a bit low on Parliamentary drama this side of Easter, unless anyone thinks the Tories will keep fighting on ID cards.
23. Italy is not boycotting it because it’s likely we’ll lose, but because RAI has no interest in producing it, no-one will watch it and the costs won’t be covered. Then they have the terror that we could win by mistake and have to organize the next edition!
26. Canton Ticino.
26 - yes it’s Ticino.
27. Nick, Ian Gibson said there’re still around 60 rebels out there.
26 - there was the Not the Nine O’Clock News joke about the Vatican entry being “I can’t get no contraception” - but the Pope told them to pull it out at the last minute…
26. Actually there’s San Marino too….but I don’t they even took part to the contest
19 Bob I have just listened to the interview and it reminded me why I don’t listen to Today anymore. Humphreys’ interviews shed more noise than light and as usual he is pushing his own agenda rather than trying to elecit information from the interviewee.
He is nowhere near as effective as Tim Russert from Meet the Press in the US. He is always polite and measured and engaged and delivers some great interviews and extraordinary admissions.
Humphreys type behaviour is one of the reasons why people become disengaged from politics. He will probably write an article on Sunday saying all politicians, except the Dour One, refuse to answer simple questions in a straight way.
If I were Dave would have been tempted to have given up and asked Humpreys to go the extra ten percernt and do all the questions and all the answers.
19 Bob, there is a growing problem is for those of us who want and are prepared to give DC benefit of the doubt about this sort of interview.
He’s already unsettled a large tranche of the party (as he’s clearly entitled to do with his mandate as the newly elected leader)with directional changes and all the touchy feely no tie stuff, but recent events are subtley different.
He’s clearly looking for ‘his’ ( ‘our’ ?)equivalent of a clause 4 moment &/or a few ‘right wing dinosaurs’ to stick their heads above the parapet to make an example of ( a la Militant tendency)
I can’t help but increasingly think he’s going to get his chance in spades at some point soon ( After May 4th !!!)
I find the announcement yesterday tactically bizzarre
Whether people agree or disagree with what appear in the document
is one thing, as is my observation (from multiple conversations with people who voted for DC but who are now ‘confused’) that whatever is produced will get a lower approval rating (if it even gets one !) than the two thirds mandate from December.
Why leave yourself hostage to fortune in this way, leave the party open to potential public ridicule for spurning ‘the new way’ and offer you opponents a power base ??
Notwithstanding Humprey’s unhelpful line, the ’shrillness’ thing is also wearing a little thin and is making him look petulant.
The way he dispatched Hilary Armstrong at his first PMQs was fantastic as a one off, but repeat performances leave him open to being seen as ‘rude’ (which I didn’t think we did any more ?)
Storm clouds brewing…………
34.”The way he dispatched Hilary Armstrong at his first PMQs was fantastic as a one off, but repeat performances leave him open to being seen as ‘rude’ (which I didn’t think we did any more ?)”
the “idea” was good, but the delivery less….he sounded angry and OTT (note that people weren’t seeing what Hilary “the Clueless” Armstrong was doing). he should said it in a calmer way (maybe with a little smile)
33 & 34
How many elections has Cameron fought when he was in charge ?
P1 W1 L0 - have some patience.
I hope that the odds are correct and that Ming will make the big speech on Saturday. They should be close because no one can be sure about the outcome.
Topics for next week? Local election results; support for “Clause Bore”; how long Blair will last; and which Conservative will be first to defect to UKIP.
And will “Oor Willie” stay in at the next GE.
36 - Does Dunfirmline not count as an election during which Cameron was in charge of the Conservative party?
37. who’s Oor Willie?
36 If were into two world wars and one world cup territory
Dunfirmline ?
p 2 w 1 l 1
re; Humphreys. Was woken up to this argument this morning by my radio alarm clock (very strange; briefly had DC is one of my dreams, thankfully he left soonafter).
Have to say although I am no fan of DC I think Humphreys could have conducted the whole thing a lot better. Just shouting at him doesn’t do anyone any favours and just makes Humphreys seem unreasonable even though he was raising some important points. IMHO he is the weakest of the Today team; they should give one the other presenters the just after 8.10 slot.
As for new things to talk about; how about the Italian election?
41 sorry, should read “DC in one of my dreams”, not yet awake…
[27] If I.D. cards are a necessary anti-terrorist measure then we all need them now. But the Government is happy for me not to have one until my passport expires in 2011 - unless of course there are secret plans to use the powers in our old friend the Legislative and Regulatory Reform Bill (the “Henry VIII” bill) to get round this little local difficulty.
But I have low expectations of a government that takes six years to bring in legislation requiring Public-Private Partnerships to demonstrate value for taxpayers’ money. (The cause of all those stories in the Eye about Hospital Trusts going bust, by the way - most public sector capital programmers are still in denial about the current system.)
42 Freudian slip, Tistoph?
44. :$
Nightmare, perhaps…
Tory Boy You hardly count as a dispassionate observer, having been anti since I-don’t-know-when.
But you can live in hope, I suppose. But it might be a long wait.
45
even
41 The new Tory subliminal advertising. Tomorrow you will wake up with a blue card in your hand and a donation gone from your bank account and a song in your heart. Free of all those dodgy bar charts at last.
I was in Bristol West at the weekend and interested to see that the Tory leaflet had exactly the same bar chart as the Lib Dem leaflet.
41.”As for new things to talk about; how about the Italian election? ”
Alessandra Mussolini wants to be part of the government. Someone suggested that she won’t have ministers or under-secretaries, she said Silvio promised her.
49 It might be a first! A non-dogdy bar chart…
46 Blue2win.
…. a little spat in paradise !!
Expecting a call later this morning from one of my moles in Cowley Street
………………………………..
Topics for Next week
1. The Jacobite peerages in Beaconsfield - 1701-1890
2. The Act of Union 1707 in Sutton and Cheam
3. The Battle of Torbay Chamber Pots 1745
4. The Killiekrankie Quiche Rebellion of 1689
5. Jacobite exiles underwear in Milan 1746-1806
6. Ming Dynasty Jacobite Soiree Porcelain.
…………………………………………….
Also MUCH RESPECT to Mike and family for hosting IMO the nations finest political site !!
46 Quite the reverse B2W, I’ve accepted the result from the outset and have been studiously loyal since, and indeed remain so.
These boards are though for discussing events and developments in politics within a betting context and I can’t see that by saying what I have I’ve revealed any great(or even minor)secret.
If you read what I said, rather than jumping into automatic defence mode, you’ll see that I’m actually querying the tactics of holding an election that gives those like me (who will vote against it as I believe lower taxes are key to the society I wish to see and live in)a chance to register ‘our’ point of view.
If ‘approval’ jumps from 67%, DC’s obviously weaving his magic, and those that feel like me remain marginalised.
If it falls (or even fails - which I’m not predicting)he’s in a world of “Tory splits” & “Plummeting moral” headlines in the media which frankly write themselves.
It’s so, totally unecessary to go there.
I think he has been incredibly badly advised on this.
48. Hell would freeze over first…
Plus if the Tory party did ever manage to recruit people like me then they truly would have betrayed their core principles
Or is that DCs plan?
27/ “People could always debate the Education Bill revolt, though I think it’s fizzling out for Second Reading….The tiny majority (4) in the Lords against the terrorism glorification clause pretty well guarantees that they’ll fold in the next ping-pong round, so we’re running a bit low on Parliamentary drama this side of Easter, unless anyone thinks the Tories will keep fighting on ID cards”
Nick - as a Labour MP don’t you think it a wee bit bizarre that in each of the three issues above your well to the right. As a fully paid up orange booker Lib Dem I still have to pinch myself as to just how right wing Nu Labour will go in their relentless quest toward conservatism. I get enough grief from my activists for being too right wing sometimes but in Nu Labour I’d probably be branded as a dangerous leftie…heaven forbid!
27 - will we only get real drama when the Government tries to introduce something really controversial then? Any plans?
53. I fully agree with you. I was somewhat surprised and confused (and mildly gleeful) when I heard about this. It seems he is trying to complete a whole process of reform and a Clause 4 moment in a matter of months. This can only lead to people feeling disillusioned.
55. There’s nought wrong with being a dangerous LD leftie!
[55] SAC - so what’s new? A Liberal MP brings in a (successful) Bill to legalise abortion and in the next Parliament a (Glasgow Catholic) Labour MP brings in a bill to overturn it. Labour has an enormous number of social conservatives in its core vote - arguably, as those who actually vote age, higher as a %age than ever.
Re: # 6: Does anyone know how to get the Indy’s articles for free off the net?
Have you investigated what internet services your Public Library offers?; here in Richmond upon Thames (Tory - about to go Lib Dem again) we have a good selection, including News UK: http://www.newsuk.co.uk/about/site_map.jsp/ which provides free full access to ALL the national papers and regional dailies: ‘News articles are fully keyword-searchable and can either be printed off in a user-friendly format or e-mailed for later reference.’ I do not know what this service costs.
59 Christo
Richmond upon Thames (Tory - about to go Lib Dem again)
Perhaps in your dreams, that’s the only place it’ll happen.
2. The likelihood is that R’s will retain control of the senate; although if there is a real backlash anything could happen. To do so, they need to lose 5 senate seats, and the key races appear to be:
1. Pennsylvania - Rick Santorum looks doomed - most likely D pickup
2. Rhode Island - Liberalish R Lincoln Chafee is facing a strong primary challenge from a more typical republican. If Chafee goes down in the primary then this is a solid D pickup.
A couple of real tossups are:
3. Ohio - Mike DeWine facing a strong challenge from Sherrod Brown; DeWine is increasingly voting against Bush to shore up his position.
4. Missouri - Jim Talent facing a strong challenge from Claire McCaskill
And the live outsiders:
5. Montana - Scandal hit Conrad Burns will face a tough challenge from either Morrison or Tester
6. Virginia - Former Reagan Naval Secretary James Webb is taking on incumbent R George Allen in a state that is gradually trending D.
The Democrats should hold all their incumbent seats as the Republicans have been unable to get top-tier candidates - biggest uncertainty is possibly the open seat in Minnesota but I’d be surprised if the R’s pick it up. Overall my guess would currently be a 51-49 senate next time.
As a LibDem, I agree with some of our Tory friends above. I was appalled by the Cameron shoot-out. Cameron did make some damaging admissions of the holes in his green credentials, but most lay listeners will either be totally switched off, or more sympathetic to him because of Humphrys petulant interruptions.
There could be a cross party consensus on here breaking out soon that Today’s pack-chasing, red-top trumping mentality and incredulous voice tone as the standard mode of speech is one of the main reasons why so many people are disengaged from politics. Newsnight are almost as bad. Andrew Marr’s ‘I’m so laid back by the predictability of what I am talking about I am horizontal’ mateyness was even worse.
Nick Robinson is actually a lot better.
Instead of reporting and asking relevant questions, most BBC and sometimes ITN editorial priorities since Major’s time are always to second guess the next news, with speculation about what X barely-reported but actually important event means for Y, where Y is the pack mentality’s topic of the month, ie ‘how will this affect Gordon Brown’s chances of being PM.’
Sky are erratic, sometimes actually doing a good job of reporting the news and getting the importance of events right, ie the Dunfermline result- they made it top of the news straight away at 1am while News 24 had it down at fourth or fifth story all night after the result in a truly bizarre way.
At other times, Sky are clearly being blown off course by a fixation on things which are ‘Live’ and ongoing - eg the London whale saga. Or sometimes by what Murdoch wants them to say.
I am a sworn opponent of Ruth Kelly and Tessa Jowell, but the way the pack has moved from Kennedy, to Kelly, to Jowell etc etc is utterly unconnected with credible reporting of what really matters. It wouldn’t matter so much if it was just the red tops, it is the way the so-called serious news outlets join the feeding frenzy which is depressing.
ITN I think on the whole do a good job, but do not dominate the news perceptions of ordinary people in the way the BBC does.
As for the leadership, i always thought Ming would do it because
a) A lot of people voted early before Huhne got going
b) At least a third of the members are completely inactive and had no idea who Chris Huhne was until the election started - yet will vote (splitting between Simon and Ming with Ming doing well. Evn though this group liked Kennedy the most and are most likely to blame Ming for his removal, I don’t think they will vote for Huhne as a result - it would just tend to help Simon a little.
c) Ming’s MP supporters all come from seats with large memberships and will get their local vote out. LibDem members generally think the world of their local MPs ( look at them still backing Oaten ).
d) Chris Huhne’s literature was in my view very poor - the weakest of the three. Especially in the critical ballot / manifesto mailing which in my local party of 200 members is all that at least 160 of them have actually received! If LibDem campaigning teaches you anything, it teaches you that good literature with action photos backing up your messages and giving the sense of momentum and team do matter, but his stuff didn’t do that. This is the main reason in the end I did not vote for him, how could a LibDem leader accept such weak material as good enough? His website was ok, better than Simon’s, but not as good as Ming’s. But a lot of the armchair members won’t even have looked at the websites.
I think Ming will do it, I hope his alleged disdain for other members of the human race do not infect his judgment and let us down. Lets just see his talent and clarity at work. And he needs a tooth job, a hair cut … and to trim his eyebrows.
61 - why do you think Chafee hasn’t switched, when politically he could surely be very comfortable as a Democrat? Is it a sense of loyalty to his late father’s party?
Ye gods, I am getting so worked up I am losing me grammar.
Happy St Davids day to one and all…..
If you go to http://www.icwales.com there is an opinion poll. Does not give details of party support.
It shows an overwhelming majority in favour of further powers for the Asembly and 9/10 people favour a Bank Holiday to celebrate St Davids Day with 7/10 being prepared to exchange an existing Holiday.
16% of the electorate favour full Independence…..
63 - That seems to be the school of thought; essentially he’s part of the rump of the Republican party that was more concerned with economic than social conservatism - perhaps he’s waiting for the party to come back to him; you could equally ask why some Tories have never jumped ship; Ian Taylor springs to mind, as did George Walden.
Tristph The forecastg is for the cold weather to continue moving south creating a demand for winter fuel payments to be extended to other non-pensioner groups. A Mr Beelzebub, the deputy group leader, produced a bar chart showing his furnace temperatures were falling fast to a level he described as ‘tepid’. ‘If this trend continues’, he is is reported to have said, ‘then we shall have the first known frost down here in no time at all’.
American elections now that would be intresting. I’m not sure on the lower house but I think the republicians should hold the senate
68 et al - American Elections - any chance of getting Betfair to put up a mid-terms market in some way or another? Should be the next thing to be looking at, and I think the Senate will be very close, perhaps even 50-50…
69 - Intrade have markets on the Senate races:
http://www.intrade.com/ (click on “Politics” and then the 2006 Senate heading).
But I don’t know of anywhere where you can bet in sterling. It’s probably worth asking Betfair: they did have state-by-state markets (albeit pretty illiquid) for the 2004 presidential election.
62 - Some good points, one good example of the “guessing the news” trend has been the Education Bill. Endless speculation on its contents before publication, but once it was published, I heard nothing switching between Radios 4 and 5 this morning on the Bill.
This happens a lot on reports and other publications, by the time they actually get published and we really know what they say, the media has already moved on to something else. Media debate becomes focus on ill-informed speculation rather than the actual facts.
62 Aim Your take on the UK press makes sense to me.
It is getting to a pretty pass when the Guardian reports more accurately on the Tory party than the Telegraph does.
Mind you the Groaneers opinion pieces are still entertaining if not enlightening and they often seem untroubled by facts or reality or nasty stuff like that.
Blair is now accused of ’sub-contracting’ education policy to the Tories. How sensible of him.
Aim The BBC web report after the Today interview is much more factual and non-polemical.
67.
Alas B2W its been a mild Winter, and from now on in the temperature is only going to rise on your Young Pretender.
Lets see how the wee lad does at PMQ today after the mauling he got on his last outing…
are you sure that your betting chart could not be inversly proportional to an armchair voter’s chart??……
I heard Cameron on the radio this morning. I was in despair. The interview was not searching, but it revealed a man with a bad temper who cannot deal with a bit of verbal argy-bargy. So after swallowing the new policy direction we now have a leader who has marched into the centre to be like Bliar but is not as able to deal with the pressure.
Cmyrumark @ 65: “If you go to http://www.icwales.com there is an opinion poll. Does not give details of party support.”
Voting intention wouldn’t have been asked - it was commissioned by the BBC and their editorial guidelines are very shirty about commissioning voting intention polls.
77: Well at least young Dave was prepared to face Humpries. Didn’t the new Labour spin doctors keep old Tone away from the Today Programme for years?
Whilst on the subject of the Fourth Estate, could I put in a plug for Radio Five Live? Its early morning programme has a lightness of touch that is quite a relief after years of self-importance from the Today programme. The best political interview I have ever heard was between Nicky Campbell and Alex Salmon: I am no Scottish Nationalist, but I learned a great deal about the man, his ideas and the political baggage/inheritance he comes with. The only problem with R5Live is that there is far too much sport!
By the way, I have it on reasonably good authority that DC actually does have a bit of a temper - this was seen at both Smith Square and when he was at Carlton. Maybe Humphries was deliberately trying to goad him to see the consequences?
We should ask our bookie friends to have a market on the next cabinet member (need listing) to change (or lose) his job. There are markets all season for the next premiership manager/coach to leave his club, and they are popular. There would need to be rules dealing with more than one on the same day—ie a reshuffle of any sort.
Tessa Jowell is the current jolly, but favourites don’t always win….
….or maybe a vote on which event will happen first: a Tory MP defecting to UKIP or David Cameron defecting to the Lib Dems.
(Any views, Rik?)
Are saying that Cameron loses his temper at work????!!!!!
82 - At least DC defecting to the Lib Dems would give us all the enjoyment and potential profitablility of another Tory leadership election!
80. And in that rather odd Newsnight feature when the reporter kept following him around - he was sweetness and light for so long, and then blew up when the guy asked him about Jesus’ resurrection.
re15. I hope the professor applies more rigour to his academic work than he does to his posts here.
By all means attack my analysis but put proper arguments forward.
36 - Did I miss something? Which election has he won then?
Ahh… another Lib Dem line of attack on David Cameron! Now he’s got a temper! Great Scot!
Yes, whatever will we talk about next week after the old fart from Fife is elected tomorrow?
BTW, I think Sir Alan Haselhurst should replace Gorbals Mick as Speaker on a permanent basis. This has been the first Question Time in ages in which I have actually been able to understand what the Speaker was saying!
Hardly a line of attack, AHM! Someone had mentioned the interview (which I did not hear) and said that he was getting cross. I had heard this before - and yes, I agree, losing one’s temper at work should not always be regarded as a character fault (I hope!)
75 Tistoph. Kindly refrain from using the moniker “Young Pretender” for David Cameron. No Jacobite he.
65 cmyrumark. Celtic felicitations on St.Davids Day.
BTW inlight of recent developments are you now just plaidmark ??
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Apologies……… still waiting on my Cowley Street mole.
89. I was thinking exactly the same thing.
90 - Good. Many a time would I have liked to give Mr Humphreys a good slap after listening to his hectoring, and I have never been interviewed by him! I can well imagine how those who have might feel.
91 - Jack, your mole is struggling to burrow his way through the vast quantity of ballot papers in the Ming pile…
61. the Dems need 6 gains because on a 50 50 tie Cheney pulls his trigger for the Republicans. Add New Jersey to your list of possible Republican gains. Its an open seat and the Republicans have a strong candidate in Tom Kean’s son.
I think I last listened to the Today programme about 15 years ago. It was self-important and uninformative back then, and it seems little has changed. I think politicians should avoid it - no one listens to it.
96. What are the viewing figures out of interest?
Didn’t see PMQs (am paying for the wages of the public sector). Did DC get humilated again?
61 -Andy C, have you been following the senate seats you speculate on?
Pennsylvania will probably be a pick up for the Dems, your right on that.
Just because there is a tough primary for Chaffe in Rhode Island doesn’t mean he won’t get the nomination, the chances are he will.
Ohio and Missouri are both states where the current Republican seantors lead in all the latest polls, both are states which have voted for Bush solidly and you might like to note, both are states with republican governors and both senate seats held by the republicans, not to mention that congessional delegations in both states are majority Republicans, for the Democrats to win with such a bad national leadership would be a miracle (and it’s not my opinion the leadership is bad, the main media outlets in the US critise Reid and Dean a lot).
Montana will be a Republican hold simply because no challenger will have amassed anywhere near as much money as the current Republican senator, so don’t even waste your time. Just as Kentucky showed last time, even when a repubican candidate goes a bit weird, he still wins through in a conservative states provided he has vast amounts more money, which was true for Bunning.
Virginia may have a Democrat governor but that doesn’t mean it’s a Democrat trending state, the state hasn’t voted Democrat in a general election since 1964 and in the latest opinion poll the Republican Senator leads again.
You might like to note that last time Mondale led in all the opinion polls prior to being defeated in Minnesota, so the state isn’t a big uncertainty, it’s a toss up, and there is no certainity we will know who wins till the polls close.
The actual truth is the Republicans could lose one or two seats, but they could gain a seat, or maybe make a pick up in other states which are marginal (like Michigan or Washington), but they will hold 53 seats after the election at the very least, most probably 54.
You might like to do some actual research and you might actually find that the incumbancy is a huge advantage in US Elections, look at all the senate seats which the Republicans gained last time (South Carolina, Lousiana, Florida, North Carolina & Georgia), all had one thing in common -they were all open seats.
All the seats you’ve mentioned that the Democrats could pick up have incumbants so don’t assume that those states will vote other than for their current senator, it goes against all the evidence from US Elections. Special cases can be had like in Pennslyvania, but that’s the exception rather than the rule.
97 - I don’t have any figures on hand but IIRC Today is the third most popular radio programme behind Radio 1 and 2. I would disagree with Fred, quite a lot of people listen to it, though how many of the listeners are already members of the political classes is another question. I know I personally listen to it, mainly because Radio 4 is one of the only radio stations my alarm clock can actually pick up - though I missed the DC interview as I fell asleep before it came on!
98 Robusticus. PMQs - Score draws all round.
U.S. Senate - Maryland is also a possible Republican pick-up.
For latest local polls I recommend http://www.realclearpolitics.com/congraces.html
32 - Andrea - San Marino is not, in the strict sense, an Italian speaking country - the official language is Emilio Romagnole or summat like that, ja
88. - I am Tory. I don’t like people who lose their temper at work because it indicates that they cannot cope with whatever pressure they are facing and are resorting to bullying of a sort.
David Cameron seems to be losing his temper in public as well. If he is that easy to wind up then people will, I am afraid.
101: Thanks Jack. Shame for the Cameronaphobes, though. They’d have dined on another dispatch-box disaster for the next month.
“Emilio Romagnole”
I believe he has now signed for Chelsea.
104 - I’m sure you are, your Lordship.
100. 1.75 million people in London listen to Today
“The station is still the most listened-to in London: the Today programme attracts 1.75m listeners there — equivalent to the combined breakfast listening of Capital, Kiss, Magic and Heart.”
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/?t=article&l=talksport_defies_sceptics_to_hit_highest_listening_figure
It does have quite a large audience it would seem…
Any impartial views on PMQs for those of us stuck at a work PC?
The BBC website seems to think Cameron was quite effective in actually getting some straight answers from TB which will unsettle the Labour backbenchers.
PMQ I thought Blair was distracted. Jowell looked fraught and the Dour One looked like a Guy Fawkes happy-face mask (shudder). Summats up.
The Ming Manchu Mumbler was pretty dire. Good question but stuttering at the punchlines made it sound less important than it was.
91. My most humble apologies Jack, I will slaughter a dozen haggi as penance.
111 Tistoph. I’d prefer you slaughter a dozen Hanovarians !!
Or perhaps chain a dozen Lib Dem ….. with a months supply of quiche out of reach ….. and outsize Tory bar charts in clear view !
cameron layed the foundations today, it was unspectacular but labours silence was deafening…and blair looked rattled when a back bench tory labelled education measures as radical.
Ming is soo nervous, v.good set of questions but he lacks the neve.
the countdown is on march 15th…
86. My analysis is quite straightforward. There was only one question in the poll that mattered - who is best PM, the result was DC 33: GB 45. It is true that 50% said that they had been Labour “in the past” - this is quite representative as a higher number would have been Labour in the past (Labour was polling near 60% for much of 1997-2000). At the very least it is reasonable to assume that no more than 40% of this sample would commit to Labour now. For the Chancellor to score at 45% overall this shows that the vast majority of past Labour supporters would support him over Cameron. As for Cameron he has added just 1.5% to his support on this key question.
112. No, Please no! It would be a torture to great to bear! Next you will say that I will have to deny then sandals and jumpers and shave off their beards!
I could just sacrifice all my principles on the altar of popular opinion, oh, no…DC has already beaten me to that. LDs it is then!
Tristoph Are you sure you are out of the woods with this freezing thing? Don’t most people turn blue in the cold?
112 - what is this about quiche and Lib Dems? I hate quiche. When it comes to being a carnivore, I am no cheese-eating surrender monkey. I would have thought quiche is far more NuLabour.
Whoops. This freezing thing not the other green thing, good though it is.
114 - I thought the question was “Would Gordon Brown/David Cameron make a good PM?” - 33% said yes for DC and 45% said “yes” for GB. There wasn’t a comparison between the two, or the inclusion of a LD contender. That 33% of a sample half made up of Labour supporters think DC would be “a good PM” isn’t bad. That only 45% of that same sample thought GB would be “a good PM” is most alarming for GB supporters.
117 - I want to know about the sandals and beards myself, although I know a couple of councillors who are addicted to jumpers.
I’m more of a Fred Perry top/jeans and distinctly omnivorous type myself and I can’t remember the last time I had quiche. Had a tarte flambeé in Strasbourg a few months ago, though.
Shame I missed the merciless one.
Any more news from the mole kingdom anyone?
Sadly, loads of people listen to Today and take their cue on politics from it.
114. Hmm, the other opinion polls suggest Cameron is doing better than you give him credit.
Brown is likely to be seen making a better PM as he has held a high cabinet post for a long time. Also people expect him to be leader, which will boost him in the polls. DC in contrast has little experience to date and the public clearly don’t know him well enough to know how good a PM he would be.
I don’t think we will understand how the public will react to the Brown/Cameron battle until Blair has gone. I expect a boost for The Dour One, but not a big one, and he will need to work very hard to ensure it lasts.
SBS Surely, only a cheese eating surrender monkey would naturally use a French word for savoury egg tart.
“Thanks for your support. BTW whatever are we going to talk about next week?”
How about a competition for the London Borough elections?
114 - Do you think a grateful population will be rewarding Labour on May 4th?
117 SBS. Call youself a Lib Dem ……. you are clearly of the SDP refusenik tendency !
Betfair have swapped Huhne and Campbell around at the top of their Lib Dem leadership market.
Do I get a prize for the most mundane observation of the day?
119. You really are clutching at straws. It is obvious that GB would be a good PM, that’s why people OUT THERE say so! Have you seen the messages coming from The Sun and Mr Seltzer? Their radar is better than your’s methinks.
Betfair for those with firewalls
MC 1.93 back, 1.96 lay;
CH 2.14 - 2.20.
They have changed the order so had a slight shock at first!
120 - I bet you’ll find the vegetarian quota higher in the Labour party than in the Lib Dems. Are all members of the Green Party vegetarian in this country? Or at least all their councillors? In other countries they don’t seem to be so militant.
I had the today interview as a score draw. DC wasnt up to much but then Humphry’s aggresiveness often got in the way and created sympathy for him.
The ‘petulant’ tag that seems to be floating around DC is something to watch though. I dont see why he can’t adress it ( ala Thatchers voice coach) and suspect it may be to do with people not defering to him being a new experience.
Blair and Brown have evolved their own styles of dealing
with ‘The agressive inteview’ Cameron needs to as well.
116. Dunno, DC looks pretty green round the gills in that picture (not so sure about his environmental credentials though).
118. Up until now it has been quite mild IMO. No snow in Durham while I’ve been here, which is highly unusual.
122. “Brown is likely to be seen making a better PM as he has held a high cabinet post for a long time”
[ADD: and has done a magnificent job, best Chancellor ever etc.]
“Also people expect him to be leader, which will boost him in the polls.”
[ADD: because they want him to be PM as soon as possible]
“DC in contrast has little experience to date and the public clearly don’t know him well enough to know how good a PM he would be.”
[ADD: no change from this position by polling day]
For the record [and I can say this with absolute confidence] the Chancellor is not dour.
Just a test posting as my all my comments seem to be moderated out (and they are ok really!)
Thank you Mike for your suggestion to overcome this.
127, 132. You are Ed Balls and I claim five LD spokesmen (Laws, Cable, Huhne, Davey and Clegg) to beat you with! (not physically of course!)
99 - Luke. I feel that you are underestimating the degree of antipathy in the US towards the Bush Administration - this is a president with approval ratings in the mid 30’s and a VP below 20 - the Dems will tar every opponent with their ties to Bush. Furthermore there are a series of financial scandals brewing that have the potential to blacken the GOP in general. Yes, you are correct that incumbency is a huge advantage but it is not an insurmountable one, especially in a sea-change year - I don’t think 2006 will quite reach 1994 but I think it’ll be interesting.
Montana - yes Burns has a big war chest but he is faced with serious problems over his ties to Jack Abramoff. Also Montana is a state where the media market may not demand huge resources - and Morrison at least has a very strong financial base already. Also it is not an out and out R stronghold. It has one D senator and a very popular D governor and was carried by Clinton in recent times. I’m not saying Burns will lose but it is a definite D opportunity.
Rhode Island - Chafee has been walking a thin line. He requires D support to be elected, and this means offending the R base on occasion. Equally, if he only votes against Bush when it doesn’t matter he loses support against D’s. I guess he probably will win his primary, in which case he probably retains the seat, but with a much reduced vote percentage.
Ohio - As you probably know the state GOP is mired in funding scandals, and of all states that voted Bush, his numbers are now worst there. Although the GOP currently hold both senate seats (they have not historically done - John Glenn!)and the governorship, DeWine is vulnerable. Sherrod Brown is a top-tier challenger - it is too close to call at the moment.
Missouri - McCaskill nearly took Blunt down in the last gubernatorial election - at a time when R numbers were generally better. She is a top tier candidate, with greater name recognition now than then. Again it’ll be close.
Virginia - Allen is clearly favourite but he’s now facing a challenger who could erode some core support - as a former Reagan administration member. You are right about presidential election splits but overall VA is still trending democratic, as evidenced by the gubernatorial win in November.
If you think that that Michigan could be a Republican gain you need to do some research of your own. Stabenow has a huge warchest and is a shoo-in. I don’t think there’s a credible R challenger at the moment. You’ve not mentioned the open seat in Tennessee - I’d say R hold, but again not by much.
New Jersey - yes there’s outside potential for an R gain, but I’d be surprised. But on the whole the Republican’s problem in this cycle has been a failure to entice good candidates into the ring - does not this very fact tell you that they are worried that 2006 will be a Democratic year.
135, I would anticipate that the Democrats will again display their unerring ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Last test worked.
Now to repeat all my posting that just disappeared over the last few weeks……..
No I really couldn’t put you all thru’ that!
132. People do not think that GB has done a magnificent job, the average person in the street will probably say he has done an okay job.
He is only wanted as PM because Blair has become such a hate figure, not because of anything GB has done.
The more time DC gets in the media, the more people will get to know and trust him, the more likely they are to vote for him.
Sorry Prof, GB is going to lose ground at the next GE to Cameron, save if the Tories implode.
I’m not saying whether this is all good or bad, I’m just suggesting how IMO things will pan out.
138. He has done a magnificent job but if the average person thinks he has done an “okay job” that will be good enough to win well. That’s what the poll really means and Tory posters had better get used to it.
Anyone else starting to think The Professor is Charlie Whelan?
140 - more like Charlie Chaplin!
I think GB can certainly defend his record at the Treasury (so far). Are his problems that he 1. comes over a dour 2. is the most factional figure in politcs anyone can think of apart from, er… Edward Leigh?
In no-one in the Uk had run up a credit card bill what would GB’s record look like ?
139. Face it prof, people are tiring of Labour and want some change. The women vote if going to go to DC more then GB, as the polls have demonstrated. As someone posted on here on a previous thread, as it stands GB might win more votes in the Labour heartland, but he does not have the appeal to Middle England.
Moreover Brown is going to have to come across a lot more conciliatory than Blair is and I just don’t think he has that kind of personality.
Politically he is trapped; move to left to shore up against LD; lose to Cameron. Move to the right to fight Cameron; risk losing safe seats to the LDs (and as we have shown, we can win them).
He was damged by the Dunfermline bi-election. He is going to be damaged by the poor showing in the Council Elections this year. And if the economy doesn’t start growing at a faster rate he will no longer be SEEN as doing an “okay” job.
Find another leader (but of course, you won’t, and you will suffer the consequences, but what do I care, its not my party…)
Jack W
Good to see someone here keeps up with all the really important news
123. “cheese eating surrender monkeys”
Did/Does anyone actually think this is funny? It’s something that a 8 year old would make up in the playground. The fact that it’s had such a long run is symptomatic of the abusive and juvenile level of the pro-Bush pro-war lobby.
(i’m a tory by the way).
re 114. The Professor. More sloppiness I’m afraid. Check the poll out - the question of who would be ‘best’ PM was not put.
I am sure that in your academic work you would not make assertions without looking at the source material which clearly you have not done.
How about “Les singes capitulards fromagistes”?
(I’m a Eurofanatic)
144 Excellent post Tistoph ! Eat that Professor !
Don’t listen to Today because they’re so tediously confrontational and know-all by turns. If Cameron was peevish with Humphries, I can’t blame him.
SAS: we could argue at length over ‘what is left-wing’ - for me, it’s providing disadvantaged people with better services and more security in life, and I’m open to suggestion how to do it. I used not to be (I was a Bennite in the 80s and further left before that), but I’ve come to feel that a rigidly ideological approach is unwise. I don’t favour ID cards or banning glorification of terrorism or facilitating parental school choice because I think they fit some model of society, but just think them good ideas - and if the Tories sometimes support them, that’s not, for me, a decisive argument against.
150 - Nick: for me, it’s providing disadvantaged people with better services and more security in life
sounds like One Nation Conservatism to me
The differentiation happens when you add an indiscriminate identification of who falls under that category and make them dependent on the state for their livelyhood, as opposed to giving the weak and needy the support they need when they need it, then providing the tools and facilities for them to become self-sufficient, and as such become net contributors to the state.
And I know that was what JSA, Tax Credits, et al were supposed to do, but they haven’t. They have failed. I have staff working less than 15 hours a week taking home more than I do as a 40 hour p/w (I wish it was that few) manager, and who basically say “where is the incentive to work more hours, I will lose my benefits”
150. Any chance of a by-election in the near future, any MP’s looking unsteady on their feet?
139: Professor, you are the most sagacious poster on this site. Gordon Brown is a formidable politician and the greatest finance minister this country, and probably the world, has ever seen. (Labour’s only problem – and it’s a small one indeed – is that such a masterly act will be all but impossible to follow; though I’m very impressed with the talent amongst Gordon’s likely successors: the excellent Ed Balls, the Miliband brothers, Yvette Cooper.)
What tories and others forget (or pretend to) is that when Gordon finally calls a general election the economy will be booming (all respected economic commentators now agree on this) and the war in Iraq, which is associated in everyone’s mind with Blair and which Gordon was sceptical of anyway, will no longer be a factor. It was only the war that prevented new Labour from enjoying another stunning landslide in 2005, and that obstacle won’t be around next time. I concur wholeheartedly – as I’m sure will the Professor - with the incisive A Baker, Spain who predicts a 250 plus majority under Gordon’s premiership:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolpda/ukfs_news/hi/newsid_4518000/4518721.stm
“and the war in Iraq, which is associated in everyone’s mind with Blair and which Gordon was sceptical of anyway, will no longer be a factor”
an excellent post, Scholar, but Gordon Brown is so brilliant, that by the time the election is called, history will have been rewritten and the was with Iraq will never have happened.