Will Ed succeed Gordon at Number 11?
March 24th, 2006
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Darling now favourite to be next Chancellor
Given the 0.33/1 price tag on Gordon Brown being the next Labour leader a more interesting market for those turned off by such tight prices is on who will be his replacement as Chancellor.
The above chart shows the implied probability of the two front-runners, Alastair Darling and Ed Balls based on best betting prices. Apart from a shot period immediately after David Cameron’s Tory leadership victory when George Osborne came into the frame the market has been dominated by Balls (RED) and Darling (BLUE).
In the immediate aftermath of last May’s General Election we had a good argument on the site when I suggested that Ed Balls, then an MP for less than a week, might be an interesting way of cashing in on an expected Gordon Brown promotion.
For Balls, who had been Brown’s close adviser from 1997, seemed to have a reasonable chance because of the closeness of the two men’s relationship - a view shared by punters in what, admittedly, has been a very light market.
In recent weeks, though, the sentiment has moved away from the former adviser and Alastair Darling is now the 2.4/1 favourite. The position of Balls has not been helped by his lack-lustre speaking style and the less than convincing way he has handled radio and TV interviews.
The MP for Normanton is still a back-bencher and the suggestion that he could suddenly move to one of the top job’s in Government after spending so little time in the Commons seems a big argument against. But Brown will want his close friends round him in his cabinet and Balls fits the bill.
A Balls bet at the current 3.1/1 price might just be worth a punt because there is little doubt that there’ll be big interest in his chances once Tony Blair has announced his departure date and Brown looks all set to take over. This could see the Balls price tighten sharply.
Mike Smithson
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Not trying to lay off a bet are you Mike? His odds should be closer to 100, than 3. He might get a minor role at the Treasury, even a chance at Chief Sec, as the Pm’s ‘eye’s and ears’, but Gordon isn’t stupid.
One interesting somewhat neglected topic about the prospects for a Brown premiership is whether he will be capable of ‘letting go’ of the day to day involvement in financial matters. He’s been doing the job for 10 years after all. We all know about the problems of ex-leaders in politics, I fancy someone is soon to be confronted with the far greater problem ofr an ex-Chancellor.
O/T: Great Keighley by-election result - the BNP beaten by a mile in what passes for their heartland. As noted in the previous thread, though, clearly tactical voting at work in the huge swing to Labour and personal votes too. The background, I gather, is that they had won earlier by campaigning on a local case of a girl who was sexually mistreated by some local youths, some of whom were white and some of whom were Asian - the latter, of course, being what the BNP picked up. The girl’s mother was so furious at this exploitation that she joined the Labour Party and stood as their candidate in this by-election. Sounds like a heroine to me, well worthy of some personal votes - how many of us would see past our private horror in this situation? Perhaps just for once a result we can all celebrate (and I’d say much the same if she’d stood for the Tories or Libs).
To avoid doubt: the Times poll is the same one as I reported on yesterday’s thread.
Ed Balls was rated as impressively in command of his brief when we used to grill him on the Treasury Select Committee. I’ve not seen him on TV so can’t say anything about that.
Re: 2 - Indeed, Nick, and as an LD, I’m more than happy to echo your sentiments on the Keighley by-election result. I’m encouraged that both ourselves and the Tories also fielded candidates because the point is not to just put up an anti-BNP candidate because that allows to play the “they’re scared of us” card. We live in a plural democracy and the voters deserve the widest range of choice. Sometimes that means the BNP wins - more often than not, and especially when exposed to real debate, their vote crumbles.
Your candidate is of course worthy of special praise under the circumstances and I suspect she will make a fine Councillor, not just for her area but for the whole of Keighley.
Balls might be worth a punt. Despite his curiously repellent persona which is a combination of C3PO and a double glazing salesman he must be in with a chance. GB will be too wary of the WLQ to put another sweaty sock into number 11 while he is hoisting the saltire over number 10. Either Balls or Darling wil be tremendous for their tabloid headline punning potential.
2 - “I’ve not seen him on TV so can’t say anything about that.”
He’s god awful!
I’ve seen him ask questions in parliament, on question time and in other interview formats and he really was dire! He ‘ums’ and ‘ares’ and must be one of the least articulate senior MPs out there.
I’m sure he has a brain “the size of a planet” and is not doubt a lovely chap to know, but that doesn’t detract from the fact that his presentation skills and ability to articulate a point are very poor indeed.
You really cannot have a Chancellor who cannot command the house or present himself credibly to the media… for that reason I strongly doubt that he will get much further than ‘Chief Sectary’ before the next general election.
Should his presentation skills improve and should Brown win the next general election (which I would say is highly uncertain) then he stands to be promoted further, but as things stand, no matter how clever he is, Balls wont get very far in the cabinet.
re 1 & 5. Yes Alex - I do have a little bet on Balls at 4.2/1 but after making thousands on the Tory and Lib Dem contests I’m not trying to lay it off.
I doubt whether Balls’s ability as a communicator will rate at all in Brown’s mind when deciding on who his Chancellor should be. And Brown himself is someone who has shown that you can get better.
I think that the way he presented the budget at a quieter slower pace made him that much more effective.
I’m puzzled that no-one is giving Alan Jonhson a chance for number 11…..not even odds for him…and you can get them for Mark Oaten who has as many chances as me to get into number 11
Tediously, I agree with MS. The budget’s key feature was not its thin yet ever-more-complicating content (the ‘head-line’ money for education was typical GB sleight of hand). Nor was it DC’s perfectly adequate, and entirely predictable, reply.
GB’s much improved presentation was the big surprise. If you’d have forecast that last week, I’d have explained about leopards and spots. And I would have been wrong.
Its not great. But if it continues to improve, he might win a GE, however tired and stale the rest of the socialist govt’s ministers look on the TV.
Binfield with Warfield by-election (Bracknell Forest BC):
Con 921 votes
LD 444
Lab 174
UKIP 119
Any other by election results?
Mike oh Mike
are you trying to spoil everyones weekend !! Balls for Chancellor … Nooooooooooooooo. A man so tedious and dull that he makes the World Painting Drying Contest appear a riveting rip-roaring humdinger of an event.
7 Andrea. Hmmmm….. but you’ll get into No 11 and rummage around the Chancellor’s knicker drawer for your latest 876 page book “Political Underwear I Have Known”.
Andrea - do you know the by-election result from Cheriton last night? Been away and currently unavailable to get hold of my mole (also known as my better half!) at the count - I think she is still asleep!!!
Who would do the job if Brown were leader and Balls somewhere around? You would be looking over your shoulder every minute of the day.
12.Milkybar Kid. I can’t see the result yet. sorry.
11. Jack. My book is already sold out
12. Milkybar Kid. Here I’m:
LD 504
Con 294
People First 262
Go Folkestone Action Group 126
Impeach Blair Troops Out of Iraq 18
Id have thought Balls was likely, As Mike say’s he’s been close to Brown for such a long time and I presume they share the same views about how the economy/treasury should be managed.He’s been so fiercly loyal to Brown that GB will surely want him somewhere with the power to enforce.
His loyalty may be a down point though as he has been over enthusiastic in briefing against Blair and has enemies (hence the need to have him in a powerfull position - if he doesnt have authority it could cause problems) and this could backfire if a key minister that Brown needs on side insists against Balls as a condition.
Brown knows the Treasury inside out by now so a strong presence isnt wanted.
When I’ve seen Balls on TV he doesnt come across well ( uber loyal and manic eyed ) but Darling has the power to send people to sleep.
Darlings strength is his experience of Cabinet, Brown may want him in a dept he knows less about so his power base isn’t too treasury orientated.
Balls makes sense in terms of bringing in a new generation ( Milliband ,Purnell and Liam Byrne are also reputedly ‘ on message’ now).
Crucialy, I think the Balls/Darling bet comes down to what wider plans Brown has for his reshuffle- Balls could only be in a senior position in the treasury ,Darling would be usefull to Brown in a wider range of Positions.
At the moment Clarke may be the best indication we have to which way the wind is blowing.
Balls really was absolutely awful when he appeared on QT recently. Brown would have to lose all sense of political reality and then be held at gun point before appointing him. IMHO it will be either Darling, Johnson or (prepares to be shot at), Hutton.
7 - Andrea,
Completely forgot about Johnson, I think he’d be better than either Balls or Darling but dont know enough about how ‘allied’ he is, or whether he’d want no11.
18. Icrossland, I think he’s a blarite…at least he’s usually described in that way, but at the same he has union links which are always useful.
14 Andrea. I note your book sales were spectacularly high in the Rhondda !
Interesting that Plaid got 18 votes in Cheriton …. or was it Printz ??
20, Jack, it’s the great sequel of “Politicians are just pants to me”….then we shouldn’t have this discussion at this hour of the day! it’s too early…do you want to shock newcomers?
18 crossland. I think your post is the epitome of “damned with faint praise.”
6 - Mike
I wouldn’t be surprised if the ability of a potential Brown cabinet to communicate their polices well to the House and the public wasn’t at the forefront of Brown considerations when he shaped such as cabinet.
But surely he couldn’t disregard their ability to perform credibly in public to the extent of promoting Balls to one of the, if not “the”, most prominent posts in the cabinet ?
Balls goes beyond being simply boring or uninspiring he is often largely unable to get his point across in any effective way… on question time he has stumped and bumbled through responses which are simply painful and make Sarah Teather look like a heavy weight!
As I say I’m not casting aspersions on Ball’s intellect, but surely Brown would have to realise that he simply could not be credibly promoted to any senior position in the cabinet without marked improvement?
Ball’s presentational difficulties highlight what appears to me to be the growing gap between the confident, savvy media performers on the Tory (Gove, Vaziey etc..) and LibDem (Laws, Davey etc…) benches and the apparently far less prepossessing figures on the Labour benches, I don’t know why this is but surely it cant be a good sign for a Brown premiership which is likely to be dominated by the likes of Straw, Darling, Miliband, Harman etc… ?
15 Rather an interesting result.
People First are the group that split from the Lib Dems - and included both councillors in Cheriton. Lib Dems came last in Town Council elections in Cheriton in 2004 iirc.
22 Jack W,
I see what you mean,
I seem to have said that IMHO the best man for the job is the one I hadn’t noticed !
But at least hes better than the one who sends people to sleep or the one who is useless on TV and a divisive figure in the Party !
I’d use the smiley face things but im too computer illiterate to do it so exclamation marks will have to do !!!
21 Andrea. Talking of newcomers to the site ….. a little tease … Which lurking Labour MP is almost permanently turned on to PB.com ?? …… and used a couple of one-liners (not mine
) in a speech fairly recently ?? ….. Nick P will know …but feign ignorance. 
Of course others are “turned on” by the site …… but we’d better not go there.
15 - Andrea - thanks - expected that result, the new candidate had done absolutely no work to defend the seat, so we expected a huge swing back to LD
The headline “Osborne crushed by Balls” is pretty irresistable but I guess his inability to talk in soundbites is likely to lead to the more prosaic “Move over Darling”
25.”I’d use the smiley face things but im too computer illiterate to do it so exclamation marks will have to do !!! ”
put your mouse on the smiley face and you would say what you’ve to click to make it appear.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article353312.ece
Much as we thought!
Andrea
The world of PB is my oyster from now on
29.”you would say ”
it should have been “it would say you”….Jack’s posts always confuse me!
25 crossland. I think we share the prize for computer wallyness !!
But here’s a few smiley faces for you. Just close the single or double colon or semi colon on both sides or on the left as appropriate to effect the smiley :
: lol : =
: cry : =
: ( =
: roll : =
; -) =
: shock : =
30 - Peter Pigeon
Personally I’d have thought that kids who whine are more likely to be the sort who swing the left and seek make amends for their “victimised” “ostracised” childhood by challenging the “system” which let them down… that might not necessity mean they become liberal but it probably means they become more radical in their political attitudes and that is probably the point.
I don’t think childhood experiences can make you a conservative or liberal but they could certainly condition how receptive you might be to the concept of / or need for radical change be it political or not, or if it came from the left or right!
In the end its likely IMHO that those who have a negative attitude toward their childhood experiences and see themselves as having been isolated are more likely to distrust and therefore be open to challenging the prevailing status-quo – In contrast those who have a positive impression of their experiences in early life are more likely to be content to accommodate the status quo and even fight to defend it.
As I say I don’t think its an issue of being simply conservative or liberal but rather either being radical (even confrontational) or conservative (with a small c and more consensual)… that said those who are radical are more likely to lean to the left and to a greater extent those who are more accommodating and “conservative” in their attitudes are more likely to be from the right.
But the idea that whiney, ostracised kids become conservatives and assertive, involved one become liberals is gross oversimplification IMHO and smacks of some liberal academic in America trying to make cheap political points
:lol:=
Mike. Brown will be extremely concerned about effective communication by his chancellor. He wants to win the next election. Balls has no chance in my view both because of lack of Parliamentary experience and, at the moment dismal performaces in front of the camera. Balls could become Financial secretary but that’s the height of his realistic ambitions at this stage. I wouldn’t rule out that he could improve significantly his media skills with some intensive training though.
As for Darling his problem is being scottish. I think Brown will correctly be very concerned about giving the impression that a scottish mafia is taking over the country. The smart thing would be to give the chance to Clarke, a politician with obvious weight( in every sense of the word!). Whether Brown would be prepared to give the job to someone who’s not ‘one of us’ remains to be seen.
37.”The smart thing would be to give the chance to Clarke, a politician with obvious weight( in every sense of the word!). ”
Clarke and weight… I obviosuly see his physical weight, but I can’t see any other type of weight.
Some of his junior minister almost outshine him in Commons debate.
35 I thought that - expressed in the terms it was - it was a bit of a joke.
On a liberal - authoritarian axis though liberal views do correlate with self-confidence.
37 blue moon. But the Scottish Raj has already taken over the country !! ……. it’s just you haven’t been watching carefully enough.
I mean… we’ve imported a Scottish winter to England this year !
PB.com descending into cod-psychology today…whatever next I wonder?
Could the next Chancellor be Gordon Brown? The problem for any other new Chancellor will be to run the Treasury with out Brown having to check everything. It is surprising the Brown has not had a stint at the foreign office (not the home office because things always go wrong there) to broaden his experience, but perhaps he is indispensible and didn’t want to leave the Treasury
42. Icarus, but Tony would upstage him at Foreign Office.
42 Icarus. I think that’s a very interesting point. Perhaps a year or so before the handover TB and GB might agree to put Gordon in the Foreign office and perhaps allow Gordon have a sizeable imput into the new Chancellor ….. maybe Straw in a neat swap …… and Balls as a Chancellor …….. but of the probably still vacant Duchy of Lancaster.
I note there is an interesting story in the Times today linking GB with the loans scandal…the just departed head of Capita was apparently given the chairmanship of the ‘youth community scheme’ just days after flinging Labour his £1mn bung. Slightly surprising to see this story in the Murdoch press too, which has lately been very positive toward Brown.
My outside bet for next Chancellor is Ruth Kelly, a bit of ying to Gordon’s yang… or something.
In the next few years its far more likely to be either Straw or Clarke, with Miliband possibly taking over before or after the next election.
Ed Balls is highly unlikely, in fact his wife has more chances IMO.
I do think this idea of a ‘Scottish mafia’ because both leader and chancellor are Scottish isn’t credible. To have suggested that the Tories went into the last election with a ‘Jewish mafia’ would have been nothing short of racist.
Ruth Kelly?!? A candidate for DCMS methinks, if she survives that far. I think Straw may choose to go with Blair, or take a backwards role such as Leader of the House to finish his career. I simply don’t know what Brown would do with Clarke.
45 Fred.
….. “Youth Community Scheme …”
You really are going to have to do much better than that Fred !
Any news of the names of the Tory “bungs” yet ?? ….. I’m sure CCO have quite innocently lost the list in the shredding machine somewhere.
“Slightly surprising to see this story in the Murdoch press too, which has lately been very positive toward Brown”
You reveal so much about yourself Fred in every post. You really are a piece of work.
47: Yes — but the relevant point is where their seats are, not their ethnicity. Brings more West Lothian-esk issues into play.
I thought you knew all the names already Jack W…
IMHO any aspiring replacement for GB at the Treasury needs their head examined.
Whether they are the brightest kid on the block all the way down to John Prescott they are set to be inherit the job from hell.
The books don’t balance as they are, borrowing is marching ever upward, the (long overdue) cull on public sector jobs has finally started (in the wrong place, sacking front line health workers is suicidaly stupid) unemployment is ticking up and taxation levels
are at an all time high.
Leads me to conclude that Brown won’t want one of his place men
in the role as whoever gets it is being set up to fail.
Far better surely to use a Blairite who can then be cast aside when the time suits after they’ve served their purpose as a sandbag (useful idiot) for the Leader ..
51. I think if you asked the electorate whether they wanted the most competent chancellor available or whether they wanted the person to be English only a very few on the outer fringes of Torydom would say ‘English’
Seems we agree Balls it ain’t gonna be. He’ll probably make a very good junior Treasury minister, perhaps Chief Sec soonish, and I understand gets through bucket loads of work. That’s all GB would need as his insider in HMT. He shouldn’t be asked - waste of our time and his - to do presentational and media stuff.
I’d be surprised if it’s Darling - unfair on him though it is, just don’t think GB can put a Scottish MP in there. Amazed if it’s Clarke. Could be Ruth Kelly, though personally I would recommend she stays away from that volume of work for quite some time. Patricia Hewitt could do it, John Hutton possibly. But what about David Miliband - unlikely but potentially very smart appointment by Brown.
And don’t overlook Nick P - I understand he’s fairly good with numbers!
52 James A. Absolutely !!…. my Jacobite spies are everywhere and a by product of Andrea’s book research has been some very interesting information ….. it seems Tory bloomers are back.
56. Jack, why am I always in the mix?
I was doing research for far more interesting info than Tories donors!
Waverley DC Ewhurst Byelection Ind 372 Con 360 Lib Dem 230 Lab 6 Ind Gain From Con
53. Interesting T.B Irwin Seltzer said that the proof of the excellence of the chancellor is that all his opponents can do (as they have for the last 8 years) is predict doom tomorrow. He went on to say that he was also lucky to have an ecconomically illiterate opposition (but I’m sure he wasn’t talking about you!)
53 Hi Tory Boy …. but someones got to do it …. who’s your favourite Blairite for the job ??
BTW …. what’s your take on the Tory “Bung” names ??
………………………………
Andrea. Where those two the only by-elections last night ??
60. No. Jack, there was one in Sunderland too
Unlike you Roger, I’m looking forward to the future, not backwards to the past.
Something for you to muse until we both discover who is right :
A young man named Gordon bought a donkey from an old farmer for £100.00. The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day.
When the farmer drove up the next day, he said, “Sorry son, but I have
some bad news…the donkey is on my truck, but he’s dead.”
Gordon replied, “Well then, just give me my money back.”
The farmer said, “I Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.”
Gordon said, “OK then, just unload the donkey anyway”.
The farmer asked, “What are ya gonna do with him?”
Gordon said, “I’m going to raffle him off.”
To which the farmer exclaimed, “You can’t raffle off a dead donkey!”
But Gordon , with a big smile on his face, said “Sure I can. Watch me.
I just won’t tell anybody that he’s dead.”
A month later the farmer met up with Gordon and asked, “What happened with that dead donkey?” Gordon said, “I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two pounds a piece and made a huge profit”
Totally amazed, the farmer asked, “Didn’t anyone complain that you had
stolen their money because you lied about the donkey being dead?”
And Gordon replied, “The only guy who found out about the donkey being dead was the raffle winner, when he came to claim his prize.
So I gave him his £2 back plus £200 extra, which is double the going
value of a donkey, so he thought I was a great guy.”
Gordon grew up and eventually became the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and no matter how many times he lied or how much money he stole from British voters, as long as he gave them back some of the stolen money, most of them thought he was a great guy.
You can only fool people for so long………..
Hilary Benn is a candidate methinks - he is held to have performed OK at DfID & is personable - often mentioned as an outside leadership contender - & also a Brownite. Miliband is another possibility, but less so I think.
54: But do I want a health minister from a scottish constituency running health in england when it has no effect on his constituents?
I would always want the best person available, but within the bounds of democracy. The fact that the current devolution mess has made this question arise is a perfect example of why it needs addressing…
57 Andrea. But it counts as Tory dirty washing …. so is well within your remit !
58 Mark. Thanks. ….. but is that correct…. Labour 6 votes ….. clearly a massive budget bounce !!
What about Alan Milburn for next Chancellor? What are his current relations with GB? - as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster it would seem a natural upward step and perhaps his Blairite credentials would be regarded as advantageous to keep a balance within the Labour Party?
65. blah, Jack, you’ve a bad opinion of me!
65. Jack, there was a TC byelection in Keighley too. As reported last night in the previous thread, it was a Lab gain from BNP
62 Tory Boy. Much
…. the trouble is the Tories have an ass for Shadow Chancellor !!
67 Andrea. Certainly not …. you are the sites national treasure !! ….. Italian national one anyway.
66 Yes Jack it was as many as that .
Very good TB. Another little moral tale…..
A man joined the Trappist Monks as a trainee and was told he could only speak once every seven years.
After seven years he said “Cold floors”
Another seven years passed and he said “Bad food”
Another seven years passed and he said “I quit”
To which his teacher replied “I’m not surprised” Since you arrived you havent stopped complaining.
70. Jack, the “dirty washing” comment…I mean I’m an Oaten’s follower!
73. ops. I feft out a “NOT”
60 Hi Jack …
Do you know I really don’t know who I would like to see take over at No 11, be they Blairite or Brown I hope from a Conservative perspective (set against the scenario I paint) that it’s one of their ‘high flyers’ who will be damaged in a career sense and become less of a threat to us as a result.
Mrs Jack’s Milliband possibly ?? - I’ve not really given it too much thought.
Regarding the ‘Bungs’ be they ours or others, it really is a profoundly depressing story isn’t it.
I think the only thing I would say is that (providing no benefits or favours have taken place) that if historic donors have given monies in anonymity and on that basis, their privacy should be respected.
I’m sure we all agree that “You’re All the same” is a tragically common refrain on the doorstep that we could all do without hearing so often, but what’s the answer ??
Not personally convinced State funding is the way forward.
Perhaps a far more rigid Election spending regime which is dilingently policed/resourced might represent part of the solution ??
I’m sure the incarceration of a few errant agents/candidates would
rapidly focus attention in all camps.
Sunderland MBC, Millfield:
LD 566 (43.5%,+10.1)
Lab 397 (30.5%, -1.1)
Con 260 (20.0%, -1.7)
BNP 79 (6.1%, -7.4)
LD Hold. Turnout 18.2%.
69 “No comment”
Douglas Alexander for chancellor?
Another solid night for the Liberal Democrats in local elections. Bodes well for May.
Remember, the brass plaque outside No 10 says “First Lord of the Treasury” - probably an accurate description for GB when he gets there. And he could always combine the two jobs anyway, like Churchill being his own Minister of Defence.. (OK highly unlikely but who predicted BoE independence?)
76. Good result for LD considering it was a mix ward.
72 Was he called Gordon as well ?
He’s been grizzling about Tony not resigning ’soon’ for ever !
75 Does anyone know whether it would be possible to create Chinese Walls within political parties, seperating the fundraising and the elected politicians/policy makers? In the banking sector they completely seperate market traders and IBD, why can’t political parties rig up something similar?
75 Tory Boy. Thanks for that.
I’m dead set against state funding …. why has the tax payer to always pick up the tab.
I’d go for open funding by law with reasonable limits and if someone gets a peerage …. who cares ??
74 Andrea. We believe you …… NOT
milkybarkid
are you season ?
83 Anna. The most important word you used there was “rig”.
Lets keep it all open and available for public scrutiny.
Scanning this page I see lots of mentioning of the words “Ed”, “Balls” and “punt”. I can only assume multiple typos.
83. My experience of Chinese walls in investment banking is that they function rather imperfectly, to say the least. I cannot see them working in a political party.
84. Jack W - didn’t you post on here a few days ago that funding scandals would continue ‘until there was state funding of parties’…have you changed your mind already?
Anyone know the previous result in Ewhurst and the identity of the independent? The Tory candidate was chairman of the parish council - thus a strong local candidate.
86 Unfortunately “open to public scrutiny” seems to produce a short fall of cash… Let the parties scrutinise each others lists or set up an independent body through the Electoral Commision…
90 Anna. If parties can’t enthuse potential donors with their ideas and philosophy why should the tax payer bear the difference ?
88 Fred. Not I.
89. Peter Pigeon. The Independent was Diane James
“I do think this idea of a ‘Scottish mafia’ because both leader and chancellor are Scottish isn’t credible. To have suggested that the Tories went into the last election with a ‘Jewish mafia’ would have been nothing short of racist.” - Roger @ 47
Oh come on, it cant be racist to complain about the scots being short, tight fisted, whatsits can it? Any insult however serious about a scot can surely be justified as “fair comment”
For goodness sake I am as anti racist as the next chap but scots are just crying out to be stereotyped.
91 Precisely! The only way I can see to increase donations and avoid the sleaze allegations that we have had is to take the names of donors out of the public domain and get the parties to police each other’s donations.
93 Icarus. Care to pass on your Misterton address …. you arrogant, whining, tofu munching, bearded, sandal wearing English Liberal Democrat ??
Get the claymores ready Hamish !
If you enjoy political soaps, this is for you.
(For background information, see this.)
96. I emailed Book Value yesterday about their recent posts….well, our comments couldn’t be repeated!
Ah, nice to know, they think Jo Swinson is a “man-hater”
As a short, tight fisted Scottish whatsit myself I feel I am well within my rights to denounce certain Conservative politicians as a bunch of chinless lightweights who have to do hard sums with matches… :grr:
Actually, and not withstanding Mike’s hilarious obsession that he is the next Mandelson
, I thought Gideon Osborne was astonishingly lightweight, even by the helium standards of his leader- “We will provide my affordable homes”- who is we? What is affordable? How will it be done? What will it cost? Answer came there.. none
94. Still no substitute, for me, for removing the power of the PM to nominate people to the Upper House, and having new laws which lay down strict rules preventing companies who are bidding for government contracts from making political donations.
Ewhurst by-election result
Diane James – Independent 372
Richard Cleaves - Conservative 360
Ruth Reed – Liberal Democrat 230
Richard Chaundy - Labour Party 6
Ind gain from Con
Don’t know what sort of independent she is.
Interesting trend over last 3 weeks - the almost total collapse of any remaining Labour vote in Tory/Lib Dem contests.
100.”Richard Chaundy - Labour Party 6″
he has just 5 friends…..
99 I’m not aware that any companies bidding for government contracts have made donations. I thought it was private individuals, who happened to be on the boards, that had caused the palaver…
101 - To be fair to him he might have more than 5 friends, they just don’t live in the area…
Roger You may not like the point but it remains true that Brown will be desperately trying to appeal to middle england(just look at his feeble joke about the world cup in the budget speech). I doubt that Brown will want his administration to be seen as being too top heavy with scots. Andrea. we will have to agree to disagree but I think most commentators rate Clarke pretty highly. Although he obviously isn’t a Brownite he was more a Kinnockite by background than a Blairite. If Brown wants to get off to a good start he’ll demonstrate a wish to unify which would argue for some key posts at least for people outside his inner circle of friends.
104 And since the DWP, NHS and Treasury are the departments most likely to go belly up, what’s the betting on three arch Blairites receiving these coveted posts?
204. Bluemoon, I agree he should give some posts outside his inner circle…but I still prefer Johnson than Clarke.
yes, we’ve agree to disagree.
I would be careful before judging what a politician is now from what he was (Clarke being a kinnockite or a blairite)….Patricia Hewitt was a bennite many, many years ago!
203. lennon, are we sure that he’s coming from that area himself?
Congratulations to the Labour party in Ewhurst to get less than the number of people who nominated you voting for you is some achievment for what was once a major party - they used even to be in government I believe!
BTW is Ewhurst a Euro approved german sausage or a lamb sausage?
The turnout in Ewhurt was 58.6%. I think it’s pretty high for a council by-election.
Last time result in Ewhurt was. Con 369, LD 323.
There was a by election in South Oxfordshire too: a Con hold.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections/story/0,,1738948,00.html
Why didnt the Lib Dems stand in South Oxford?
110. According SO webiste, they stood:
http://www.southoxon.gov.uk/ccm/content/legal/watlington-by-election.en
It’s probably a typo in the Guardian website: Lab instead of LD
111. Which means the result was a huge swing to the Conservatives. Nice swing in Bracknell too.
Hard to read anything into those by-elections: nearly every one seems to have special factors. At a guess, anti-BNP tac voting in Keighley, anti-Lab tac voting in Sunderland, anti-Tory tac voting in Ewhurt. But could be personal factors or who knows what.
No, Jack, genuinely no idea what other MPs post here, though a few are regular readers and compliment me in Yes-Minister style about my ‘bravery’ (’very courageous position, Minister’) in flying with my own colours. Rik and I run into each other in the canteen from time to time - he’s the only other poster I’ve knowingly met.
112. I think the 18.2% swing reported in the Guardian is correct.
107 - I notice that the Labour Party still has a small way to go before it breaks the record for lowest vote in a council by-election (news story here but you need to scroll down a little) but I think it probably is quite a distinction for a major party as you say.
PA report excludes the Cheriton election (which was town council).
From todays FT - “Tesco gained 3.4 per cent to 346p on hopes that the supermarket chain could look to place its £12bn property portfolio into a real estate investment trust. Gordon Brown, chancellor, announcement in this week’s Budget that Reits would be in place from January 1.”
Does anybody know what this is all about - why is a Labour government, a Labour government, helping fat cat property companies? Surely not just because they wanted to sell their HQ building.
The property sector has been up strongly since Wednesday afternoon on the strength of this announcement. REITs were thought to be very expensive to set up, so no one was interested; now that Gordon B has made the process cheaper, lots more companies are interested.
re 100. So the Labour meltdown is actually happening!!
This must, surely, be the first time ever that the governing party at Wesminster has polled four less votes, in any election, than the number of people who had to sign the candidates nomination form.
And for all this to happen just one day after Gordon Brown’s budget.
What say you The Professor?
117. Icarus - stop it! you will upset Roger.
119. The Prof would say Lab is improving. They didn’t contest the seat last time.
what are your considerations about the Libdems losing 23% in the same by-election?
I am pleased that the excellent Roger has condemned some of the persistent anti-Scottish rants of certain contributors. I am English but what if I objected to Cameron for a being a “little englander” nor drinking warm beer etc.? No wonder Scots won’t support England in the World Cup, with the exception, of course, of our esteemed Chancellor - cheers!
I would advise you to place your bets on Mr. Darling. He has a departmental record second to none. Transport has been a resounding success under his quiet, effective leadership - even the Select Committee says so. The trains are running on time (almost). He has the air of a bank manager you can trust - boring maybe, but calm and reliable - a safe pair of hands, the City will like him. He was the Chancellor’s appointment as Chif sec in ‘97 - so a logical progression.
Cameron? - sounds like a scottish sort of name to me.
122. I am now convinced Mike is the Professor or is in cahoots with him, and is just toying with the rest of us.
113 Nick P.
Oh I do assure you have bumped into other Labour lurkers …. they’re behind you 
78,
How is Douglas Alexander with economics?
He certainly looks the part, and I think will be a great asset for a long time to come for the Labour Party.
If Brown will not pick Johnson, which I think will be a mistake.
Then he should go for Douglas Alexander over Ed Balls due to his very good presenting skills, which I believe the wider public would prefer.
Another reason to avoid putting money on A. Darling is that he is now nursing a marginal seat - the Lib Dems do seem to be getting their act together in Eastern Scotland these days - see Dunfermline, Edinburgh City Council and Holyrood election results for more details.
127. Clarke and Kelly are in more marginal seats. And Balls has to find a seat.
But Darling would hope to be Chancellor before the next GE. On the basis of todays byelections labour will be wiped out.
Checking my Betfair I find I have had one small bet on the next Chancellor - A. Darling at 4.0, he is favourite at 3.4 but needs to move in a bit to show a reasonable profit - get backing.
124. Fred, I agree….maybe for the first time!
re 122. The budget does not seem to have gone down well in Ewhurst. My calculation is that Labour got just 0.619% of the vote.
Putting that through Baxter…..
127 Augustus. I think a 7,000 maj for Darling is somewhat better than marginal, especially as the Tories and Lib Dems are scrapping for second place and thus there is no clear challenger.
130 Steady on Andrea.
131. Putting into baxter the fall of 23 points by the Libdems in Ewhurst, I get that the LDs should give back some votes!
Re 100 (or 00 on my PC!) “Don’t know what sort of independent she is.” here is some background:
A sitting LD was not selected to defend her seat during the last County election. She stood as an indy (and lost, and probably caused the seat to go from LD to Tory as the LD vote was obviously split). Consequently she ‘left’ the party as did her partner who is a Borough councillor. There is another associated Indy on the Borough Council as well.
From info I’ve gleened I believe the winning candidate in Ewhurst was supported by these Indies so I guess that might indicate the background (upset ex-LDs), but these are assumptions on my part and not known facts.
The other feedback I have is that the LDs were going for it and needed it for outright control of the council so although it was a loss for the Tories both the local Tories and LDs will be gutted by the result.
KJH - Since the two independents back the Tories on the council, I expect the Lib Dems will be the more upset of the two parties.
131. So, Mike Smithson, considering you seem to have fun. Ewhurst %:
Lab: + 0.619%
Con: - 16.13
Ld: - 23.01%
The Bogey Man Cometh !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4839380.stm
135.”The other feedback I have is that the LDs were going for it and needed it for outright control of the council so although it was a loss for the Tories both the local Tories and LDs will be gutted by the result. ”
The council is now Con 28, LD 26, Ind 3.
So winning in that by-election would have not been enough to take control of the council.
131. …. compared to a 6% Labour vote in Misterton last week. But local factors do matter Labour made the mistake in Misterton of putting up a Consultant Paediatrician. How any one would have thought that people would vote for a paed……
Sean, Do they? I don’t have any voting records so you probably know beter than me, but having met one of them a number of times he certainly isn’t Tory inclined and I would suggest very Liberal. There is obviously local tension however.
From one piece of commuinication from the count ‘the Tories were even more gutted than the LibDems at what is, for them, the loss of a seat’
140. Icarus, I think you should pay more attention to your splendid result in South Oxfordshire
I’ve just realised I’m arguing about who was more gutted. I think I should declare that I am older than 5 - honestly
Personal disagreements often trump political convictions KJH. Certainly I have been advised by a knowledgeable Conservative that we hold it with the support of the independents.
139 Andrea, I think you have the Tory and LD figures the wrong way around.
Sorry, everyone, I do not have the election results to hand and have clearly misremembered the size of Darling’s majority. Thanks for the correction, Jack.
145. kjh, yes, you’re right…..I should buy a new pair of glassed! :ops:
146. Augustus:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/696.stm
Shepway is the more important result imo. We seem to be on the mend.
144 True.
142 - Tory candidate was actually from Watlington. Lib Dem was not local (from Benson). These things matter massively in the nice smart parts of South Oxon.
149 - Cheriton was Folkestone Town Council, not Shepway DC. Also, multiple reasons on the ground why it swung back to LD - lack of work on the part of the Con candidate, track record of previous Con councillor in the seat plus his reasons for being kicked out as a councillor (thur resulting in the election), and a stronger than expected campaign from Go Folkestone, who mopped up 50% of the Con votes.
Basically a full blown shambles on the part of our lot in Cheriton, add to this that prior to 2004, Cheriton hadn’t been visited by Con canvassers in pretty much 30 years, so it had always been a Lib Dem stronghold (why did they not bother… I never understand the “no-go area” mentality…..)
But I wouldn’t view it as a revival because of other results in the Shepway district over the past 6 months, in particular in Hythe which had, until 3 years ago, been a LD stronghold also - pretty much all the Libs in Hythe have been wiped out, so at the district elections next year (if they happen), the Libs will have to combine work with sheer bloody luck - a lot of locals still remember the shambles of the last LD administration at district level (and as such why Go Folkestone has such a strong showing in Town elections since 2003)
Ed Balls is perhaps one of the most incompetent politicians I have ever had the misfortune to have to be associated with. If he becomes Chancellor it will be out of patronage alone. Talent will come a distant second
151. to be fair, I don’t think that result is all that relevant, It was just to point out to some individual who seems to have fun to look at the Ewhurst result, when they could go and look to somewhere else whilst they’re there.
Antony Calvert?? - Anything to do with London Life??
152 Milky: not the end, not the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning.
or words to that effect
155. He’s the youngest councillor in Wakefield
http://www.wakefield.gov.uk/CouncilAndDemocracy/Councillors/Councillors/Calvert+Antony.htm
or are you suggesting he has a second London identity?
157 Andrea. That was desperately slow Andrea - 7 minutes - we obviously don’t have your undivided attention.
158. Jack, it’s because, uhm, well, I admit it, I searched for “Anthony Calvert and Lodon” too
156 - maybe, personally I think Cheriton was an expected outcome but not the start of a recovery, but we will see next year
157. Wakefield webisite seems a bit confused about how his name is spelled. Antony or Anthony?
http://www.wakefield.gov.uk/MG/mgUserInfo.asp?UID=1001
125.”Nick P. Oh I do assure you have bumped into other Labour lurkers …. they’re behind you ”
Jack, do you mean that we’ve to look to who usually sits behing Nick Palmer in the Commons?