Sean Fear’s local council election commentary
March 31st, 2006
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WHAT OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
The modern Liberal revival began in local government, with the capture of Finchley in the late 1950s. Decade by decade, Liberal (and then Alliance) support on local councils grew steadily, until by the mid 1990s, the Liberal Democrats had 50 local councils under their control, and more local councillors than the Conservatives. Typically, Liberal Democrats gains came in areas of long-standing Conservative support (although there were exceptions like Liverpool, Tower Hamlets and Southwark).
Recently, the nature of Liberal Democrat representation has changed. Many seats have now reverted to the Conservatives, but the Liberal Democrats have made serious inroads into Labour’s urban heartlands. They have captured councils like Newcastle, Durham, and Islington, and are the only serious opposition to Labour in many urban areas.
How will the Liberal Democrats do on May 4th? Outside London, the scope for large headline gains is limited, due to the small number of seats being contested. Within London, most of the really tight contests will be between Labour and the Conservatives.
Nonetheless, there is scope for the Liberal Democrats to make progress. Outside London, they should be able to gain Rochdale, and deprive the Conservatives of overall control in Solihull. They should be looking for gains (although not outright control) in Kirklees, Calderdale and Manchester. Despite their strength in Oldham and Sheffield, it is unlikely that they can win control of either borough, due to the nature of the seats being contested this year. They are vulnerable to losing their minority control of Norwich, but ought to retain Newcastle.
Among the smaller authorities, they ought to be able to win outright control of St. Alban’s, and possibly take Hart and Eastbourne from the Conservatives.
Within London, they would have had high hopes of winning Richmond, where they have performed very well in by-elections. However, David Cameron’s brand of politics should go down particularly well here, and they may well fall short. They will almost certainly lose seats (but not outright control) in Sutton. Despite Tony Travers’ prediction, I see little prospect of their losing Kingston.
As elsewhere, their best chance of making important gains will be against Labour. Haringey must be at the head of their target list, although it will be hard for them to win outright control without gaining seats in Tottenham. They must be hopeful of winning outright in Southwark, and of making big inroads into Labour’s support in Waltham Forest, Lewisham, the South of Camden, and in the Brent East wards of Brent. On the other hand, they may well lose ground to Labour in Lambeth, where that party has performed well in recent by-elections. There is no longer any realistic prospect of their winning control of Tower Hamlets.
Last Night’s Results give little indication of the outcome on May 4th, as three were in Scotland, and the other two involved an Independent and a Resident.
Epsom and Ewell BC - Town: Lib Dem 438, Residents 373, Con 205, Lab 102. Lib Dem hold.
Glasgow CC - King’s Park: Lib Dem 572, Lab 472, SNP 431, C 222, Scottish Socialist party 44, Green 38, Ind 23. Lib Dem gain from Lab. This was an excellent result for the Lib Dems who won the seat on a 19% swing.
Mansfield DC - Forest Town West: Lab 365, Lib Dem 197, Green 187, Con 175, Ind 43. Lab gain from People’s Councillor. The People’s Councillor was originally elected as Labour.
South Lanarkshire Council - Avondale South: Con 775, Lab 315, SNP 221, Ind 79, Green 71, Lib Dem 59. Con hold. A very solid win for the Conservatives.
Stirling Council - Borestone: SNP 374, Lab 335, Lib Dem 165, Con 57. SNP gain from Lab. Another poor result for Labour North of the Border. The SNP win means that Labour have now lost control of Stirling.
Sean Fear
Sean is a Tory activist and a regular contributor.
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BY ELECTION RESULTS 30TH MARCH 2006
Epsom & Ewell BC, Town
LD Julie Morris 438 (39.2 –3.0)
Residents Assoc 373 (33.4 +8.9)
Con 205 (18.3 –4.1)
Lab 102 (9.1 –1.8)
Majority 65. Turnout 25.6. LD hold. Last fought 2003.
Glasgow City Council, Kings Park
LD Margot Clark 572 (31.7 +21.9)
Lab 472 (26.2 –17.0)
SNP 431 (23.9 +0.3)
Con 222 (12.3 –1.4)
SSP 44 (2.4 +2.4)
Green 38 (2.1 +2.1)
Ind 23 (1.3 –8.3)
Majority 100. Turnout 32.4. LD gain Lab. Last fought 2003.
Mansfield DC, Forest Town West
Lab 365 (37.7 +7.8)
LD Richard Hallam 197 (20.4 +20.4)
Green 187 (19.3 –2.3)
Con 175 (18.1 -1.9)
Ind 43 (4.4 –24.2)
Majority 168. Turnout 17.65. Lab hold. Last fought 2003.
South Lanarkshire UA, Avondale South
Con 775 (51.0 +9.3)
Lab 315 (20.7 –6.8)
SNP 221 (14.5 –7.3)
Ind 79 (5.2 +5.2)
Green 71 (4.7 +4.7)
LD Bernard Hughes 59 (3.9 –5.1)
Majority 460. Turnout 39.8. Con hold. Last fought 2003.
Stirling UA, Borestone
SNP 374 (38.8 +16.5)
Lab 335 (34.8 –16.1)
LD Gordon Bruce 165 (17.1 +9.1)
Con 57 (5.9 –5.8)
The New Party Time for Change 18 (1.9 +1.9)
Ind 14 (1.5 +1.5)
Majority 39. Turnout 45.5. SNP gain Lab. Last fought 2003.
Bingham TC, Bingham East
Con 368 (40.6)
LD Jim Wallace 302 (33.3)
Lab 148 (16.3), Ind 87 (9.6)
Majority 66. Turnout 27.7. Con hold.
Exmouth TC, Town
LD Steve Gazzard 599 LD Ann Raymond 589 (57.2)
Con 449 411 (42.8)
Majority 150/140. Turnout 23.2. LD hold.
Mold TC, West Ward
LD Sheila Powell elected unopposed. LD gain Lab
Sean
When you say that the Libdems might pick up wards in the South of Camden what wards were you thining of?
I’d have thought Cantelowes, Haverstock and Camden Town with Primrose Hill would be their best bets. I suppose I should have said “South of Hampstead”.
Many thanks Sean for your usual excellent analysis.
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Tories name donors or no they don’t !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4865468.stm
The Conservatives appear to have not made particular strides in that little set of results. When did the Lib Dems last win a seat in Glasgow coming from fourth to first?
Labour appears to be on the slippery slope. Beware the Ides of May!
4 - a number of tory backers too embarrassed to have their names revealed have had their “loans” payed back to them. Still some more legs in this one.
Surely this is the worst thing for the Tories to do?
The fact that the indentities of those individuals who lent money but who have since been repaid are being kept secret just adds fuel to the fire.
Who are the people who have been repaid?
When were they repaid? Yesterday to keep them off today’s list?
Are any of them foreign doners?
Have any of them been nominated for an honour since they loaned the money?
This is going to run and run and kill Cameron.
My huge respect for Cameron as a strategic & tactical thinker has taken a knock. An A-Level politics student could tell you this was a stupid move.
Presumably he’s going to Downing St. on Monday to do a deal to kill the story. I hope Blair sticks the knife in.
Lib Dems have a chance at taking outright control of Bristol too. They need 4 seats, and have a strong chance in 3, and a fair chance in another 3.
7. Yes, several of them are foreign backers, this is going to look very bad for the Tories indeed when it all comes out….I’m SO looking forward to it.
Cameron has REALLY done it now. Someone posted earlier today (what I’ve thought all along) that the whole story is much worse for Cameron than Blair. People expect it and accept this sort of thing from Blair (I think the words the poster used were “he’s seen as an ‘operator’) but Cameron’s got nothing except a ‘nice guy’ image to campaign on - if he starts to look mucky, then he’s through.
Until this afternoon, he could pretty truthfully say that he’s done nothing wrong - now he’s trying to hide embarrassing doners.
This really couldn’t have played out any better for Labour. I’m starting to think Camerson might be a double agent.
10,
Surely not,
You might be right, but I hope on this one its wrong.
I have been very impressed with how Cameron was positioning the Conservative party.
This could be his first real test, to re brand it as honest, and above reproach.
The public might have to look to the Lib Dems and the Nationalists now.
Its looking bad for team Cameron, they didnt go for full disclosure straight away and have been unable to keep their donors confidential.
There must be some very panicky scenes going on behind closed doors about some of the loans.
Revealing some of the names but not all !!! a basic PR gaff that leads me to think they didn’t have much choice and are feverishly trying to keep some serious dirt from view.
” Mr Crick is in reception……”
Are there any ods on the Tories to NOT win the Moray by-election for the Scottich Assembley/Parliament?
Few notes from Gloucestershire. Elections here by thirds or halves in Cheltenham.
Cheltenham. Lib Dems in minority control with Labour support currently. Tories likely to gain 1/2 seats but this will mean they are reliant on a group called People Against Bureucracy to take control. By their nature they are against everything that involves running a council so how would they deal with being involved in running Cheltenham?
Gloucester. Labour despite having the MP are in real trouble on the Council. Down to eight councillors and could lose more. The City is becoming a Lib Dem / Con battleground in many wards. Because more Conservative wards are up this year - it is unlikely they will win the three seats needed to take control.
Stroud. Currently Tory controlled and unlikely that many seats will change hands. Greens are quite strong and several seats are Green / Con battlegrounds. Will DC’s new eco friendly ways sawy Green votes?
These [loaners] are thought to include foreign nationals - but Mr Maude hit back at suggestions it had gone against the spirit of the party funding rules which ban foreign donations.
“It is perfectly legal to borrow money from overseas sources as long as it is on commercial terms. It is irrelevant,” Mr Maude told BBC News 24.
But according to the Electoral Commmission the loans were on considerably better terms than the party could have got from a bank or other commercial organisation. So they have broken the law, not just the “spirit” of the law.
11 - That the Nationalists were the ones who reported this to the police I think is a sign of which parties felt in the clear enough to benefit ( ie not the tories or Lib dems).
15. That sounds like a potentially libellous comment
16. the SNP are trying to help their Moray campaign.
Can you libel a political party?
17. Real legal expert I see.(not)
13 Zedidee. No market on Moray as yet.
17 Con. You can’t libel a political party ….. and in any case what jury would award damages of more than a farthing !!
19. A “body corporate” cannot be libelled.
16 - Why aren’t the Lib Dems being more aggressive on this?
OT - Au revoir - Looking forward to Leicester beating Bath on Saturday - Tabman in attendance!
16. Good point,
I think its a smart move by them and indeed the Loans crisis is political gold dust to any party who feels confident enough it wont backfire on them.
Yet again the labour spin machine goes into overdrive.
Face it folks, it’s labour who are in trouble and all of your desperate attempts to turn it away are too, too transparent for words.
When you see the same thing posted on many different sites as per at least one post on this thread, you start to wonder just how many still have the heart to keep up the fight on labour’s behalf.
That labour have started to panic and play dirty is very revealing, Dromey found something out and No. 10 is desperate to deflect attention, like a furious schoolbioy who’s been found out.
I suggest you re-watch last nights ‘This Week’ to get a better inside perspective on where the trouble is. Much more revealing than anything on here.
20, 22. Correct but not secure. You can libel an individual (even if not named) by having a go at a “corporate” if individuals within the corporate can be clearly identified as being responsible for the alledged behaviour. A few years a go 22 officers of (I think) Reading police won damages from a reporter even though they were not identified.
23 - Prior to Kennedy going there was an emerging loan scandal ( £2 million ?) but I cant remember the donor’s name .
26- Labour are in trouble, Im just arguing that so are the Tories.
The partisan in me tends to think this could be worse for the Tories because of the drip,drip way they are handling it.
25 - O/T but just heard a shocking announcement on a train I boarded in Basingstoke.
“Passengers are reminded that their feet should be on the ground. Putting your feet on the seats is anti-social behaviour. In future, South West trains will be issuing passengers who put their feet on the seats with ASBOs.”
I did not know whether to laugh or cry. It may not have been a serious announcement (but perhaps it was), but I think it sums up the huge damage Tony Blair is doing to Britain in eroding civil liberties. Big Brother is watching you!
30 - You’re about six hours too early, it’s April Fools’ Day tomorrow!
30 - did not mean to refer to 25 - don’t know why I did. Premature senility probably.
30 - well, the driver who announced it is about six hours too early.
30. where’s the problem? I think in any civilised country people aren’t allowed to put their feet on train’s seats.
Actually I think the announcement was a bit unnecessary, they could report them without warning them.
22 - We covered this the other day. A body corporate can be libelled (e.g. the famous “McLibel” case brought by McDonalds against some random pair of lettuce munchers) but for public policy reasons you can’t libel a government department or (according to Goldsmith and Referendum Party v The Mirror and others) that goes for political parties too.
34 - It’s treating adults like 5 year olds Andrea.
28 - Yes I remember, I think he lived in Spain… Michael Browne? The name also eludes me.
30 - I think on balance you should laugh. I would presume that was the platform announcer’s intention.
26,
Which filter glasses do you look through.
One thinks only the Nationalist, are set to gain from party funding, loans row.
As the attacks from the others would have been more,vindictive.
James @ 22. Rather than prolong things here, can you point me to that thread?
James @ 35 not 22 of course.
Does anyone have any thoughts on the Lib Dems chances of taking Hull City Council this year? I would have thought it would be a possibility given the current situation, but I hardly ever hear it mentioned.
28. It was a donation from Michael Brown and the Election Commission cleared the Lib Dems over it. The LDs already list the names of those who provide loans, together with the interest repayable each quarter.
36 - Yes, that’s correct. But I think it all blew over - the Electoral Commission said, “hmm, okay, but you should have put the facts before us before accepting it to check because there were issues over whether he was properly UK”. Crick claimed on Newsnight that two significant Lib Dem donors - but rather bizarrely he said one was David Chidgey who as retiring MP for Eastleigh automatically got one (all retiring Lib Dem MPs got seats in the dissolution honours) so there could not possibly have been any impropriety there. Can anyone recall who the other one he named was?
36. Here you go:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2084532,00.html
39/40 - I think it was this time last week on Sean’s round-up thread. There is an article here referring to the case, which I think I pointed out last time as an irrelevant footnote involved one of the infamous City Slickers as a defendent:
http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/hrj/iss13/docherty.shtml
43.”all retiring Lib Dem MPs got seats in the dissolution honours) ”
I don’t think the retiring MPs all got a peerage…did Richard Allen from Sheffield Hallam get a peerage? I don’t recall it.
42. Thanks for the clarification.
I can’t help but think there’s something similar to do with the LD’s though as its the best reason I can think of for why they aren’t going full tilt on Loans - namely that they can’t.
Islington may be interesting. The Lib Dems should hold it, but then they should have taken the seat in the general election. The reason for their unpopularity is that they have privatised the traffic wardens who are now widely loathed for their rapaciousness and dishonesty. If they do lose, and Labour and the Tories will have a big job dislodging them, it will be one of those rare occasions when the Lib Dems are judged on their record rather than their criticisms of other people’s records.
47. As for how hard the LDs are campaigning on it - well, they’ve made media statements deploring it and saying the Tories should name their loaners etc, and I’m sure continual reference will be made to it in major speeches. However, it’s also satisfactory to sit back and watch the other two parties thumping and dodging each other.
45. It was. Thanks for the link.
46 - My mistake. I think all the others did. Not sure why Richard Allen missed out - he may have declined it or the Lib Dems may only have got five and he was the most junior (as an MP and just in terms of age).
51 - Or I suppose he may just not have dug deep enough into his pockets!
An interesting set of results . A friend of mine living in Glasgow said to me this morning that the Scottish results reflected Smoker’s revenge on the Labour party . At first I did not give this much credence but on reflection , there is probably more than a grain of truth in this . There is probably a substantial percentage of smokers who whilst perhaps somewhat abashed of their habit resent strongly the restrictions that have been placed on their lives and leisure and have taken the opportunity to make a silent protest against Labour in the polling booth .g
49. yes sometimes there is advantage in waiting.
If the LD’s are in the clear then this whole loans farrago is a golden opportunity ala IRAQ.
Only time will tell.
Sean. When people forecast shares of the vote in the locals are they usually talking about percentages of votes cast in the seats contested or is there some allowance made for which seats are up eg if there aren’t many shire districts up the Tories would do less well. Obviously the raw share of the vote can reasonably compared with the same seats four years ago; apples and apples. Sometimes, however, people talk about the share of the vote as if that’s a reasonable estimate of a Party’s standing nationally. If many of the seats up this time are in the mets I would have thought that a 40% raw vote share for the Tories would be pretty good but perhaps my logic is faulty here. Can you advise?
53: Mark, I understand the point you are making but the Lib Dems are in government too. So why did voters think that the Lib dems should not take so of the blame?.
43. Anthony Jacobs was the other name mentioned. I think he owned BSM if I remember….a long-time LibDem worthy, served on various party bodies.
Cameron has shown himself totally inept. To think he can pay his foreign backers back and keep their names quiet doesn’t only make him seem inept but also as slippery as an eel. Whoever is advising him should sack themselves. This could have disappeared but now it will run and run.
What were you saying about brilliant tactics Anna?
56 I asked the same question as to why the Lib Dems do so well in Scotland at the last GE despite being part of the unpopular Scottish Government . Did not get a convincing answer then LOL
54 - I wouldn’t go that far and suspect this whole thing will blow over. People are squirming amusingly though. When people resort to “we were technically within the letter law” it often means they are bang to rights within the spirit of the law. Stepping back, did any of these people think that the intention of the law was to bring to light gifts of five grand but keep concealed loans given on the never never for five million? Of course not.
Has anyone looked into the tax element of these loans? Is there a tax advantage (deductible on capital gains?) associated with giving a loan? And what are the consequences if it is established that you never had an intention to have the loan repaid to you - a hefty bill or more serious?
Don’t agree about the loans issue affecting Cons more than anyone else. the polls say that it has damaged- er, no-one except TB.
Is this because people don’t care? - yes.
If you don’t get money from members (party membership in permanent decline since the 1950’s -for all parties) Business (stopped by John Major) and you don’t get funds from unions (Tebbit closed that down) you have no choice but to look for big donors. Everyone does it, even the Lib dems and that makes parties a little vulnerable to listen to these people more than the rest of us.
But the public don’t want to fork out taxpayers money for politial parties and I can’t find anyone who cares one jot if we borrow or get donations from wealthy people.
The reason this has erupted is because the Prime Minister has been accused of favouring Labour donors for lords seats - which if true will be the end of Blair, but in my view will turn out to be unprovable.
42. The Electoral commission’s clearing of the Lib dems is partial to say the least. It depends if the company the donor used to pass money from his swiss bank account was “actively trading” at the time. Accounts for the year before were late being posted at companies house. The key set of accounts is due to be posted in September if they are late I think a few more questions will be asked. There is no evidence that that the company was not trading at the time of the donation or that they were so the Lib dems can ahrdly of been “cleared” until the evidence can be examined in September.
There were questionable donations made to Kennedys office as well from a different source using the same technique.
56 AnnaK. Part of the reason is that the Lib Dems have played a rather clever game in the Scottish Executive implying that the popular measures are because of their influence and the bad things where they’ve been unable to persuade their Labour colleagues ….. ergo … Vote Lib Dem next time for a better government.
And so far it has to be said it’s a strategy that has worked, much to the chagrin of the Labour party.
51 - James - Everyone got one who wanted to stay as a full-time politician. Richard Allen didn’t (which is why his blog is post political times). But in the past Richard wainwtight did not get one, nor Clement Freud.
57 - Colin W. I thought he had been a peer for ages.
Beside the outcome of the 3 Scottish by elelctions yesterday, quite encouraging to see the turnouts, over 30 and up to 45% in Stirling.
64 - Thanks. Yes, come to think of it the fact he left at such a young age suggests it was simply a move away from politics as a profession. Good luck to him, although it’s a shame as he was good - his constituents plainly thought so anyway.
64 - Lord Jacobs has been a peer since 1997 so Crick must have been counting donations since he became a peer. Not particularly thorough there by Crick - donations by somebody who was already a peer and somebody who would certainly have become one regardless - what was his point again?
18 - The SNP reported the Labour Party to the police well before the by-election in Moray was on the horizon.
53 - The smoking ban has been consistently shown to be popular in Scotland, so there is no evidence at all of a backlash on these terms. Any Scottish electoral trends are more fundamental and longer term - in the 15 by-elections in Scotland since last May Labour have lost 10 percent of their vote on average, with the SNP the main winners with 7 new seats and a swing to them of around the same amount. Labour’s vote is soft, adn is moving to the party in 2nd place. In Dunfermline that was the LibDems, in most parts of the country that’s the SNP.
61,Marcus,
I totaly agree,
That will be the outcome after the yard have done.
Cps will not run anything, unless it is nailed on.
From what I have seen and read nothing can be proven as criminal.
However throw enough **** and some will stick politicaly.
Should help the nationalist in scotland after the parliament fiasco.
Can anyone give me a GENUINE reason why the smoking ban, as passed by parliament for England, has a commencement date more than a year hence? It may need a bit of organisation and notice but it is hardly Wembley Stadium, is it?
68 The smoking ban may well have majority popular support but it is unlikely that anyone at all would actually change their vote to Labour because it was introduced . It is easy to imagine some of the minority against it feeling so strongly to withdraw their vote from Labour over this matter . Even if this minority is only 10% of smokers it would represent a substantial swing against Labour .
51. The LD retiring MPs who got a peerage were David Chidgey, Nigel Jones, Paul Tyler, Archy Kirkwood and Jenny Tonge.
Excluding Marsden, just Allan and John Burnett didn’t get (or didn’t want) one.
71 - the smoking ban in Alba has been accepted by the vast majority. It is a pleasure not having to into a smokey pub anymore. Even a few smokers have told me they appreciate the fresher air.
No more decisions in smoke filled rooms.
There is another side to this loans fiasco. Both major parties, Lab and Con, will surely find it more difficult to finance their campaigns in future. Donors or ‘loaners’ will surely be thinner on the ground from now on. Even if the Libdems, Nats etc. don’t succeed in making hay politically they will surely benefit long term from a little more level playing field.
73 That may be true but the smokers who do not agree can still use their vote in a smoke free room and I suspect some did so yesterday .
I wonder if they missed out since they both returned to their professions and wouldn’t therefore have time to be working peers. We have few enough votes in the Lords as it is without wasting some. Who will there be to vote down the Government’s latest loony scheme?
I think it’s a bit silly to argue that retiring MPs are buying peerages even if they do give money. The Parties do need working peers to fill their front bench teams and they’re bound to look at former MPs as a prime source. Why shouldn’t long standing politicians give donations to their parties? If they’re rich enough it’s perfectly natural.
On the other hand people are bound to argue that rich men, particularly those not previously strongly connected to a Party, have bought peerages if they make large contributions before they’re proposed but you’ll never find a paper trail to prove it. I suppose the police felt the need to be seen to take the SNP complaints seriously so they’ve kept the story running but I would be astonished if anything came of it absent a whistle blower with hard evidence.
58 Roger… I still think it is right not to breach confidentiality agreements. People are bored with the loans scandal now and have moved on. Until the police report back, there won’t be much more milage in it, IMHO.
Also, can people stop saying “foreigner” as though it were a crime? Rosemary Said sent a very interesting letter into the Mail about her donation…
Mark S: I doubt if smoking is the reason since the Mansfield seat which had a healthy swing to Labour last night despite the sitting councillor having defected is in the same sort of core working-class area. My impression is that we are doing better than the GE in England and worse in Scotland - but perhaps someone with more time can look at the detailed polling figures and see if this hunch is confirmed.
I’m off for a week from tomorrow night, BTW.
79 But Nick the ban has not yet come into force in Mansfield and having to stand outside the pub in the rain may have concentrated some minds in Glasgow and may do in Mansfield next year .
Clement Freud did not lose his seat; he was defeated in 1987 by the Tories. No peerage for those defeated then - so none for Jackie Ballard, IoW bloke, Ludlow bloke or David Rendell.
Don’t think Sir Cyril ever got a peerage. And Jeremy Thorpe is still waiting despite a lot of lobbying on his behalf - mind you it’s fair enough perhaps.
Clement Freud did not retire; he was defeated in 1987 by the Tories. No peerage for those defeated then - so none for Jackie Ballard, IoW bloke, Ludlow bloke (all one-termers) or David Rendell.
Don’t think Sir Cyril ever got a peerage. And Jeremy Thorpe is still waiting despite a lot of lobbying on his behalf - mind you it’s fair enough perhaps.
Jack - I thought you were “outing” a lurker? No matter - I’ll just ppoint you in the direction of this.
Icarus - see you tomorrow. 30-12 to the Mighty Bath
Interesting to see the trend in Scotland. Perhaps they’re tiring of One Party Rule.
And preparing to embrace permanent Two Party Rule instead…
82 - AFAIK Sir Cyril is still alive; there’s time yet! I do like the description of his second autobiography: “Reflections from Rochdale: As I Saw it and as I See it (1997) ISBN 1851873406. A later slimmer autobiographical work.”
82. Brian Cotter, defeated in Weston Super Mare, is reported to be on the list of nominated to be Working Peers (the one with Patel and co)
Btw, John Burnett is on that list too.
83 Tabman.
Away win for Tigers !!
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John Pardoe, former Liberal Deputy Leader in the “telephone box” days is still without ermine.
86. Re defeated LD MP with a peerage…there’s Diana Maddock too.
Are there two Lord sainsburys?. I ask because I see on tories donation list a 50,000 pounds donation from a lord Sainsbury. I thought he was a member of the government.
88 - who is also Alan Beith’s wife.
89 - is one Tim Sainsbury - former MP for Hove (?)
89. AnnaK. yes. There’re Lord Sainsbury of Preston Candover (a tory), Lord Sainsbury of Turville (Lab) and the Bishop of Salisbury.
90. I don’t think Tim Sainsbuty is a life peer…his daughter is married to Shaun Woodward.
92 Andrea. Sir Tim Sainbury is not a peer but is the brother of the Conservative life peer - Lord Sainsbury of Preston Candover.
There was also a Lord Sainsbury of Drury Lane who died in 1980.
“71 - the smoking ban in Alba has been accepted by the vast majority. It is a pleasure not having to into a smokey pub anymore”
Nobody *has* to go into a pub at all. That’s the point of opposing a uniform ban.
btw, the independt candidate in Mansfield got 43 votes even if he announced he wanted to withdraw the contest (but it was too late to do it officially).
http://www.mansfieldtoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=722&ArticleID=1392748
48 I’m sure Islington is still pretty solid for the Lib Dems, locally. Out of interest, are you Nick Cohen the journalist?
55 - yes, one can’t just use the raw figures, because different types of seat come up each year. The BBC chooses several hundred wards that are contested by Conservative/Labour/Lib Dems each year, and then tries to extrapolate national vote share from them. I have my doubts whether national vote share means very much in local government terms.
93 Further to …… The two Lord Sainsbury are first cousins and were related as son (Conservative) and nephew (Labour) to the Lord Sainsbury of Drury Lane !!
87 - Leicester are playing at the Walker’s Stadium, so a home game for neither team
Anna. I agree that the donations story will disappear because it’s small beer. Remember the peerage for Ashcroft who it was said earned all his money tax free in Belize plus FBI drug story? And Greg Dyke being made DG of the BBC after his donation to Labour? Or the Canadian crook Conrad-Lord-Black? Nothing really interesting in this present story at all.
…….Other than Cameron has just shown his judgement is suspect and has allowed Labour to run rings around him. Not very inspiring for Cameroons to know that their prize fighter has a glass jaw.
Breaking News:
Gorgeous George said he thinks he will get married again, because he’s younger than the PM and he has lots of money
http://icscotland.icnetwork.co.uk/news/scottish/tm_objectid=16885932&method=full&siteid=50141&headline=galloway–still-a-reasonable-catch–name_page.html
At least he hasn’t said the reason is his sexyness!
96 - Nick Cohen the journalist has posted here, and indeed featured Mike in his column, so I would say yes on balance.
95 - the Independent Forum is the dominant force in Mansfield. This takes a lot of the gloss of Labour’s win (and our improved support too).
Sad story.
I have given been thinking about why, if so many people want smoke-free pubs, have market forces not intervened to create them?
The fact that so few exist, seems to suggest that people would rather tolerate the smoke than lose company with their smoking friends, which leads to the conclusion that smokers must therefore make better company.
03 - Or, like me, you’re forced to stay at home as the atmosphere makes you ill.
I used to live near a pub with a non smoking bar but, since I moved a few years ago I rarely go.
Good result for SNP in Stirling yesterday - good for Lib Dems in Glasgow and for the Tories in Strathaven. A tad bad for Labour.
The front page of the daily Dundee Courier today(circ 100,000 in this area) has a scathing piece on the Lib Dem and Labour MSP’ who say one thing but vote differently. It is all about the abolition of Bridge Tolls. The Courier is not amused.
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2006/03/31/newsstory8180495t0.asp
102. Peter Pigeon, the Labour councillor elected yesterday was a former councillor for Oak Tree ward who was defeated by the Indepedents.
104. Chrisco - spot on. I made this point (about why no smoking pubs have not sprung up in large numbers) some weeks ago and no-one has yet argued convincingly against it. Wetherspoon’s went no smoking in a large number of their outlets and in those outlets profits dropped 8%.
104 Noone should force you to go into a smoky atmosphere . There should be plenty of pubs and clubs willing to cater for the 70% of the population who do not smoke . Equally a smaller proportion of pubs and clubs should be free to cater for smokers . Now which group would make a profit in a free market ? The answer is the reason why the banners dare not offer a free market
Both Nick Palmer & Tabman have alluded to a point that has been puzzling me, how can the Lib Dems go from 4th place to first in Scotland (which is an absolute tremendous result) whilst not take a seat in Mansfield which has been ripe for the “ protest” vote for some considerable time. In 2003 both Mansfield & Ashfield District Councils had considerable gains by “Independents”. Mansfield has 26 against 15 Labour, 4 Lib Dem and 1 Tory whilst Ashfield has 16 Labour, 14 Independents, 2 Green & 1 Tory. [Labour lost 15 seats in 2003]
So why is the East Midlands in general terms poor for the Lib Dems whilst in Scotland they can scoop up the “protest” vote very well indeed.
Is it just down to lack of activists/candidates in the region or something else?
Which also implies Mark, that while 70% of the population don’t smoke, the proportion of people who regularly frequent pubs and don’t smoke is much less.
Yes, the East Midlands is a real no-go zone for the Lib Dems. Perhaps it’s an area which just has relatively small numbers of the groups which give the Lib Dems their critical mass in other places.
110. In my experience, smokers probably account for more like 50% of regular pubgoers, and among the ‘hardcore’ regulars, the proportion is even higher. I have never seen any reliable stats on this though.
110. Which could of course be because of the smoky atmosphere. Focussing on the customers misses one of the main points of the ban which is that the barstaff don’t have the option. You can of course say that they knew what the job entailed when they took it on, they could go elsewhere etc. etc. but I wonder if we would tolerate a working environment which generated a similar risk of cancer from another source.
110/112 Agreed that is my rough estimate . It is also interesting that since the ban in Ireland the numbers employed in the licensing trade has fallen by around 6,000 and over 200 mainly country pubs have closed . No boost to pub going there from smoke free pubs .
10 - It’s pretty damn obvious that more smokers go to pubs relative to the general population, that’s because non smokers like me have been given no alternative than to stay home!
113 Quite a few would have no choice but to take the work on offer or have no work at all.
113 Please quantify the risk from passive smoking - noone else can provide accurate scientifically based figures . Yes working in a smoky pub may not be pleasant for a non smoker but you will find that the majority of bar staff also smoke .
109/111. They’ve Chesterfield there. A good presence in Derby South too (but after boundary changes, their prospects will be better in Derby North)
They didn’t manage to make inroads in Nottingham South as much as they did in other university seats (it could be down to the composition of the non university part of the seat)
115 And why haven’t non smokers in Ireland rushed to pack out the pubs now they smoking is banned . Some will have done but not enough to counteract smokers who will no longer go .
117. The majority of scientific opinion agrees that passive smoking leads to a greater risk of cancer and other respiritory diseases. As you say, there remains debate about the scale. Even if the majority of bar staff smoke, this is hardly an excuse - if the majority of bar staff were into potholing, would it be ok to send them into cellars ten inches high and at risk of flooding each time a barrel needed changing? (This might not be the best equivalent, but it does conjure up some interesting images).
119 - why does that matter? It’s a factor to be considered but not the only factor.
Fred. at 56. I notice you lived in Bridgwater in Somerset. A very nice part of the world. i spent five years at school near there and I still miss the summer colours.
116 - I wonder how much this is the case. I suspect the atmosphere and social interaction makes bar work a bit more popular than similarly paid and similarly casual jobs.
119 - It’d take years for a real change to take place, many non smokers have had to bypass the pub culture to a great degree and they’re not going to suddenly start now. What sort of marketing campaigns have been run to attract non smokers? Any incentives to tempt them in?
121 - Because one of the arguments ( not the only one of course ) for imposing the ban is that there is a vast number of non smokers who do not go to pubs because of the smoky atmosphere . Ireland shows that to be false .
120 - There is no doubt that passive smoking does increase the risk of cancer etc but that risk is probably quite small rivalling perhaps that of prolonged exposure to car exhaust fumes .
The smoking ban’s pretty difficult for heavy smokers but so was the ban on smoking in planes. I remember long haul flights where people were nearly pulling their hair out. In a couple of years no one will notice but I expect over time the traditional pub will have changed and the whole drinking culture will move on to the continental model
118 - Andrea - just looked at Election 2005 on the BBC website and the Lib Dems gained 18.5% of the vote here against 22.6% in Scotland & 32.6% in the South West - I suppose if anybody knows why the regional difference exists they would be quids up in the betting!
127. Vino. In terms of total votes, they’re around 18% in West Midlands and Wales too
Smoking and drinking have gone together for centuries; I would imagine there are very few non-smokers who would make the pub the centre of their social lives in the way that some smokers evidently do. Doubtless there are plenty of non-smokers, like me, who are occasional visitors to pubs.
I dislike any form of legislation that is designed to save people from themselves.
Sean, you’re doing an excellent job of ‘warming up’ the May elections. I’m beginning to get interested!
What we need is a market. It might be good to have a bit of a discussion here as to what market we want, and then ask someone for it.
129. Yes, I’d agree with that sentiment. My earlier posts were to note that the effect of the legislation is not just to save people from themselves. FWIW given the option I’d exempt members’ clubs that don’t employ anyone i.e. are run and operated by the members, or owner-managed premises that do not employ staff.
128 - Andrea - yes I noticed that too,my immediate reaction was that E & W Midlands + Wales (south) were the industrial parts of Britain although I suppose people in the North East & Scotland might object!! Is there then a connection between Lib Dem support & the countryside? I have always associated the Tories & farming or am I just rambling on?
129 - Seatbelts?
29 - But smoking is not just a ’self regarding act’, it has clear repercussions on others. I disagree with any blanket ban but it’s intent here is surely to stop harm to others not to the self.
130 - are you standing, Gavin?
Almost no action is entirely self-regarding. But entering (or working in)a pub is entirely voluntary, and IMHO, it is reasonable to assume that people will wish to smoke in a pub environment. I really cannot see why it should be the business of anyone other than the pub owner to determine whether or not people can smoke in his own premises
10 - What an absolute load of rubbish. Partisan doesnt come close!
26 - Totally agree!!
One of the strongest factors in LD support has been a strong level of Nonconformism: this was particularly strong in rural north Wales, the SW and Scotland (although, of course, the “Nonconformists” were the Establishment there). Even there is nothing comparable to the strong and powerful links between the Protestant evangelical churches and the old Liberal Party before WWI, recent studies of the 1997 election still demonstrated a strong link between LD seats and Nonconfomity. Then, in addition, you’ve got Labour’s lack of appeal to non-unionised rural voters on low and medium incomes, compared to the Liberals/LD, in contrast to their success in grabbing all the Liberals’ traditional urban heartlands.
What the LDs seem to have been able to do, reasonably successfully, is to graft newer types of Liberal/Alliance/LD voters on top of the old activist base left by these trends, although there have been some exceptions (north Wales Plaid Cymru, most of whose strongholds were among the last Liberal redoubts until the 1960S)
1966 election special on BBC Parliament channel now. For those of you who don’t want to know the result, look away now. (whispered - Labour wins).
130. Gavin, there are problems of definition with the most obvious markets.
Net gains and losses - do you take this from dissolution or last time the seat was contested? How do you account for vacancies and who can keep track of all the defections?
Vote share - an aggregate of actual votes cast or a national projection? In the first case you have different methods of adjusting for multi-member wards, in the second there may be more than one team performing the calculatons, and these are often subject to later revisions.
I would suggest markets on the number of seats won by each party in a limited number of councils.
My list would include Hammersmith and Fulham, Lambeth, Tower Hamlets, Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, Oxford, Bristol, Amber Valley, Cheltenham, Portsmouth.
If we can’t get markets opened we could at least have another interesting pb.com competition.
Vino - back in 1906 Nottingham and Nottinghamshire were Liberal bastions.
To answer your serious point: around Nottingham I think its largely to do with the size of the city and the make-up of the seats. The University and Medical votes are split between three constituencies - Rushcliffe, Broxtowe and Nottingham South. In Sheffield Hallam, for example, I believe they are al concentrated in the one. Where such concentrations exist you get the multiplier effect taking place, ie the magic “credbility” factor when people decide its worth voting for us because we’re likely to win. Look at your own analysis of Broxtowe, for example, where Nick seems to benefit from around 4,000 Lib Dem votes that go to LD councillors in the County elections.
Thanks, Gavin. I’m thinking of offering a prize to the person who gets the most London Boroughs right; it would be very easy to organise.
WRT, Noncomformity, it’s my view that religion will probably re-emerge as quite a potent factor in politics. Political Islam can only grow as a force in the years to come, and I think evangelical Christianity will be quite important as well.
138/141/142 - I’m afraid my knowledge of political history is extremely lacking - I’ve had to google noncomformity to find Nonconformism is the refusal to conform to common standards, conventions, rules, traditions or laws.Was the Liberal Party founded/based on protestism ? sorry if this appears to be a stupid question.
This - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4862158.stm - seems to have gone unnoticed.
Belarus set to pay market rate for gas. Likelihood of revolution in Belarus now much increased.
141 - Tabman - I think if the Broxtowe Lib Dems ever decide not to vote Labour then Nick will be in trouble.
143 - there were a lot of non-conformists (in terms of religion) in the Whigs in the 1680s.
Vino - the Liberal Party emerged as an alliance of (typically) non-conformist radicals (the Tories were the party of the C of E which until the C19th has a strnaglehold on most positions of power and privelege), Whig Land-owners and free-traders.
Viewed through the prism of today, where free-trade tends to be viewed with suspision, the latter category are assumed to be right wing. In the C19th free trade was viewed as being radical, leading to reductions in prices which were made artificially high by tariffs. The most notorious example of this was the Corn Law.
141.”Look at your own analysis of Broxtowe, for example, where Nick seems to benefit from around 4,000 Lib Dem votes that go to LD councillors in the County elections. ”
but that happens in many part of the country: Islington seats wouldn’t be Labour if people would vote like they vote in Borough elections (IS would be LD and IN could be close)
141.”The University and Medical votes are split between three constituencies - Rushcliffe, Broxtowe and Nottingham South. In Sheffield Hallam, for example, I believe they are al concentrated in the one.”
the proportion of students is higher in Nottingham South than Sheffield Hallam
106 - Andrea - thanks
107 - Fred - Did profits fall by 8% or just takings? (I think the reason many areas have become non-smoking is the cost of cleaning associated with smoking). (I am against the ban - although I will enjoy non-smoking bars.)
109 - Vino - History of many kinds perhaps. I was also wondering why residents groups are so strong in Surrey. I also note that in ome areas that have been very strong Labour there seems to be a phase of independent (and sometimes nationailst) voting before people can bring themselves to vote for Lib Dems. (Or perhaps before Lib Dems realise that they can prosper.)
On the nonconformist/anglican issue I wonder whether it is best understood as cause or symptom.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_%28UK%29
Vino - generally speaking the electorate is perhaps not as hard and fast in its viewpoints about which party to support is we are.
149 - Andrea - obviously the wrong kind of student in Nottingham South!!
49 - Andrea, I’m thinking more about the academic staff and other University workers. These live mostly in Beeston, West Bridgford and Wollaton which are, respectively, in Broxtowe, Rushcliffe and Nottingham South.
152. According to the Census, 25.3% of people aged 16-74 are student in Nottingham South. The 4th constituency in the country.
Vino 132. Cornwall - one of the bastions of liberalism - has never been entirely a ‘rural idyll’. Much of the economy for 3000 years has been built on metal mining (mainly tin - but silver, copper etc. as well) as well as slate quarries, china clay and of course piracy and wrecking (which I suppose don’t get classed as ‘agriculture’).
Of course Labour’s vote in the county has been concentrated on Camborne, which was at the heart of the mining industry and a pocket in the estates of Bodmin (which was ‘imported’ when Bodmin became an overspill town in the 50s)- but Liberalism in Cornwall remined the political persuasion of the ‘working man’, much of it concentrated in small towns, many of which were supported by these industries.
153 - this is also the case with the Medical staff from the City and Queen’s hospitals. Being older, these groups are more likely to vote. In Sheffield, they are concentrated into one constituency.
153/56. and why are the LDs more appealing to them?
157 - Andrea, these groups seem to be the ones in urban and sub-urban constituencies that have made a transition from Conservative supporters, via New Labour (with perhaps in some cases an SDP dalliance in the 1980s), to the Lib Dems after disillusion with Blair.
Credibility plays a big part for the Lib Dems - those bar charts aren;t for nothing you know
158. Tabman, and now that Alan Simpson could use the “I’m the sexy MP in Nottinghamshire” barchar, you’re doomed in NS
159 - NS was Tory in the 80s …
160. I know. Alan gained it for Labour in 1992.