Andrea’s Italian General Election Commentary
April 1st, 2006-
Will Berlusconi have more time to entertain Tony?
Italian electoral law forbids the publishing of opinion polls up to a fortnight in advance of polling day, which has effect from last Saturday. This means that we can only speculate as to how events since then have affected the standing of the parties.’Parties will try to spin the figures of their own internal polling, but naturally only the positive ones.
Thanks to a strong start of the campaign, Berlusconi managed to gain some ground and make the election competitive. However, that positive trend for him seems to have halted in recent weeks with voting intentions stabilizing with a 3-7% lead for the opposition centre left Unione alliance.
The most recent polls have shown:
- IPR Marketing (21-22 March) Centre-Left 52%, Centre-Right 47%;
- Eurosiko (20-22 March): Centre-Left 51.7%, Centre-Right: 46.6%
- TBS/Abacus (20-21 March): Centre-Left 51.5%, Centre-Right 48%
- Ekma (20 March): House of Deputies: Centre-Left 53.5%, Centre-Right 46%
- Senate: Centre-Left 52.4%, Centre-Right 46.7%
Another pollster, Euromedia (considered more sympathetic to Berlusconi, because they work for his party) gave a different and more intriguing picture:
- with a turnout under 78%: Centre-Left 51.3%, Centre-Right 47.6%
- with a turnout between 78 and 82%: Centre-Left 50.1%, Centre-Right 48.8%
- with a turnout above 82%: Centre-Right 50%, Centre-Left 48.9%
So the outcome of the election could be down to turnout. Berlusconi must convince his 2001 supporters, many of whom have grown disillusioned with him over the intervening years, to turn out on polling day. It is unlikely that these people would vote for Prodi, but without their votes, the centre-right has little hope of prevailing.’
Finally it will be interesting to see how single parties will poll and this could affect the balance inside the coalitions. For example, how Berlusconi’s own party will perform compared to his allies? And in the centre-left coalition, how decisive the far left (communists and greens) will be?
Another point is that this election will revert back to an entirely PR system (with a bonus for the winning coalition) – Berlusconi has abolished all the first-past-the-post seats.
On the UK betting exchanges Prodie is at 0.3/1 to be the next Prime Minister with Berlusconi at 3.9/1.
Andrea is a 23 year old student living near Milan and is daily contributor to the site.
Note from Mike Smithson: Andrea’s piece is the latest guest contribution to PB.C - an innovation that was introduced only three weeks ago and is proving to be very popular. There are several other articles in the pipe-line. If you would like to take part drop me an email.
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On topic…. Does money buy votes in the Italian system? The fact that Berlusconi has been there so long, suggests that it does…
And now, a bit off topic, but still related…..
Is it not utterly disgraceful that the Tories receive funding from foreigners, either as loans or as disguised donations, in order to throw thousands and thousands of pounds into specific constituencies, in order to pick off selected MPs (decent and hardworking, in most cases).
If our Blair Labour Government believed in democracy (and British democracy at that), it would immediately take steps to stop the expenditure of vast sums of money, notionally on national publicity campaigns, but in fact on convincing individual electors.
So far it hasn´t….. So over now to Nick Palmer for a comment…. I seem to remember that Nick Palmer is in favour of fair voting.
And I think the Guardian must have had our Andrea in mind when they published this about Cameron and his friends….
“Mr Feldman, […]is a fully paid up member of the Tories’ so-called Notting Hill set. […] He qualified as a lawyer before entering the family clothes firm, Jayroma, which describes its business as “the manufacture of ladieswear”. His role has been welcomed by close colleagues of the Tory leader who say it will lead to greater transparency.”
Hummmmmmmmmmmm. Really?
Surely it would against the EU rules to discriminate against European (as opposed to foreign)loans.
Come on Cammers - use the EU to support these loans, or were they from somewhere really nasty?
John13 - but Labour spent more money at the last election!
Nick Soames has just been appointed shadow chancellor. It was thought Osborne was too lightweight
1. If the Blair government believed in democracy:
- it would have listened to the public over Iraq
- it wouldn’t be trying to rig the second chamber by stuffing it full of his pals (and funders)
- it would have answered the West Lothian question
- it wouldn’t have removed powers from locally elected authorities to appointed regional bodies
- it would have ended many of the controls central government has over local authorities
- it wouldn’t be promoting the most anti-parliament Bill since Charles I’s time
to name a few.
Sticking tot he topic, my impression was that Berlusconi had the teoevision sewn up - not just his own channels but also RAI. This is a massive tool in terms of campaigning - especially in terms of influencing turnout. I haven’t written him off by any means.
The big issue in Italian politics that has not been addressed by the last several governments is reform of pensions. Where do the parties stand on this?
I thought the Ashcroft money to the constituencies was not included in the election expenses as it was given earlier and that it pushed Tory spending way above that spent by Labour?
It could be my political leanings but when you read about the Tory donors ‘….The richest man in Scotland…..Hedge fund boss…. multi-millionaire businessmen… Australian enrepeneur etc’ It sounds like it always did with the Tories. Rich people looking after their own. Because of their ethos and history this is how it will always sound whatever the other two party’s do. It’s unfair but that’s the way it is.
“The Tories and their rich friends…..”
This sort of thing is always going to be more damaging to the Tory party than anyone else because it mirrors the public steriotype.
re 8. I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there. This is so damaging to the Tories because it fits with ongoing perceptions and they have found themselves barred from attacking Labour.
But in the medium term the Labour issues could be much worse because because it is in power and it has all the patronage. The police investigation is more likely to embarrass Blair more than Cameron.
Whether Brown is able to dissociate himself is a moot point. Hell - this guy was jointly in charge on the General Election - did he not for one minute ask where the cash was coming from?
RE: Loans Scandal
Whatever way you look at it, this has to be one of the finest pieces of spin in modern history. Labour have apparently been caught breaking the Law over appointments to the House of Lords. Yet it is the Tories who are taking the flak. This tops even the Hutton Report!
Whether the Tories have something to hide or not, you cannot but admire the skill of Labour’s spinmeisters. So much for the suggestions that the spin-machine would start to run down when Alastair Campbell left No 10!
7. Rai3 is the only channell on the left…it has always been and it probably alway will.
pensions reform…where do parties stand on it? naturally in the “don’t mention it” stence.
Well done Andrea. Very interesting resume. I must say I knew nothing about Italian politics other than that you had a crook incharge who owned all the media and who was friendly with Bush and Blair and anyone else who liked treading on the downtrodden. Having said all that I’m going to try to put some money on him to be your next PM! Things go in cycles and at the moment the baddies are winning everything!
(PS Isn’t Jack straw an odious little creep?)
12. thanks Roger.
do you really want me bad, right?
the campaign is starting to get OTT (and nasty). candidates are accusing the opponents to be “political delinquent”, “liars” and some other nice things.
Jack W’s favourite candidate, Vladimir Luxuria, has been targeted by right wing activists who threw vegetables (and insults) at her before an election rally
If anyone is interested, here they could find the names of all candidates:
http://www.repubblica.it/speciale/2006/elezioni/camera/index.html?ref=hppro
Anyway, I’m glad Mike Smithson didn’t publish my photo too…the one of the Parliament is much better!
I was so undecided about the piece to write. I took in serious consideration: “why Labour candidates shouldn’t wear red at the count”
A link to your photo will have to suffice! Where shall we look?
Andrea,
Are any of the Mussolini descendents involved still in far right Italian politics.
Also do the far right still have any major support.
15. Dez. Alessandra Mussolini (she’s a MEP) has her own movement (1.2% at last Euro-Elections).
the support of the far right….in mid 90’s the main far right wing party (MSI) had their “clause 4″ moment and they became National Alliance….they will poll around 11-12%. then there’re the fringe parties of the right (the one that refused the modernization of the old MSI) and they’re around 1%.
Andrea, Excellent informative article. Isn’t there another TV debate between Silvo and the Prof next week - could that be critical in influencing undecided voters? Even though there are no more (public) polls, can you sense which side might be gaining momentum? BTW, there was an amusing piece on Silvio (now he’s Moses) on Channel 4 News last night.
And O/T you’d have swooned over the interview with Gwynneth Dunwoody just after she was elected to Parliament in….1966!!! (The BBC showed extracts from their election coverage)
And O/T (2), depending on your answers to my questions are satisfactory, I might well be tempted to publish your photo
Oh, I forgot to thank John O and Alistair Matlock for having edited my spelling and grammatical mistakes…because you know that I would have never came up with “the intervening years” alone!
John, the TV debate is on Monday….I think it will be interesting what the newspapers will say about who win it or not.
Gwyneth…she won Exeter, right? then she was defeated at the following election
16,
Andrea,
Thankyou for that.
Also is there a North South divide as distinctive as England, where in the main the home counties are Conservative, and the other regions very much less so.
18 - Andrea, Thks. Yes, that’s correct and her then husband also won in 1966 (Rochester and Chatham IIRC) and he was also defeated in 1970. In the interview, she sounded quite “posh”, not like she does these days!
Interested to hear your assessment of Monday’s debate, and who, if either, emerged the victor.
19. in the past, Communists usually end in first place in centre Italy (Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany and Umbria), while all other regions voted the Christian-Democrats.
Now, the centre Italy regions are still the main stronghold of the left. The north-east is usually very conservative/right wing. Sicily is a stronghold for the right.
In the south, Campania and Basilicata will vote for the left. Probably Calabria too. Puglia and Molise are marginal regions.
In recent years, south regions have been more “floationg”.
20. John, I think he won Falmoth and Caborne.
He died at the beginning of this year.
22 - Well done: you spotted my deliberate mistake …
23. John, Falmouth and Caborne is sometimes mentioned here, so I had already looked at their former MPs.
Andrea - I don’t hear much about the Northern League these days - are they still popular in Lombardia? - if I remember their leader always seemed to speak as if he had a sore throat.
Really interesting piece, andrea - thanks! Is there a minimum level that parties have to reach to qualify for PR seats (5% in Germany, 2% in Denmark, 4% in Sweden)? - and if so, might this affect the result if someone in the coalitions struggles to meet it?
I’ve seen it said that Italians tend to decide in advance of the campaign and are not as volatile as some countries in their politics - is this one of those silly generalisations, or do the pre-election polls usually turn out right?
To respond to O/T post 1: in general Labour would like to see curbs on spending, because it’s common sense, because it’s harder for us to raise quite such sums as the Tories manage, and because the natural source for Labour is the unions, who tend to want policy changes in return which aren’t necessarily welcome to the party. If you recall, we did impose a cap on national spending. However, the spirit of constituency limits is certainly being subverted by phone calls and direct mail from *all* the national HQs to the seats that interest them, as well as the kind of pre-election blitz that Peter Bradley exposed.
Two difficulties in fixing it:
1. Any voluntary or partial solution will fail, and the parties which try to stick to it will lose to those who don’t. If there’s a loophole, all parties will exploit it. It’s not obvious that the Tories have a long-term interest in agreeing anything that is really effective. Note that their preferred solution of tax breaks for donors gives a large advantage to parties with more donors on higher rate tax.
2. If the limit is both low and effective, limiting the material we can get to voters, it tilts the balance of advantage back to the media, whom we really do not trust at all to report our (or anyone else’s) messages fairly.
My personal solution is a low national limit, a year-round limit on party spending in each constituency whether from local or national sources, and an expansion of free PPBs of varying length to cover terrestrial and satellite channels. The TV companies will moan, but that’s too bad. And although it’s common to despise PPBs, if it’s seen as part of a package to clean up funding, people will accept the idea. They may not watch them, but equally they may not read leaflets, look at posters, etc., so we can’t do more than give the voters the chance to hear what the parties say if they want to.
The Danish system when I lived there was to have each party get 45 minutes of unedited presentation, followed a few days later by an hour of quizzing on their programme by polite but searching pundits (a la Dimbleby). All parties got the same time (on the basis that it was a battle of ideas, and all ideas should be considered equally), the only concession to size being that the smallest parties were aired first so the big boys came on in the final week.
I can’t see the British parties buying the last idea and giving fringe parties the same time as everyone else, but I must say I thought it was a damned sight more interesting and democratic than anything we do here, and what happened in practice is that the extreme parties’ wacky ideas usually shrivelled in the light of day (and if they had a good diea, why not let it be heard?). In Britain, no doubt we’d have quotas by size as we do now, but it’d stlil be better than today’s system.#
I’m away from tonight for a week, so if there’s a challenge to reply to something and I don’t, it’s not that I’m devastated and slinking into a corner.
Good luck Prodi!
25. Marcia, their leader had an Ictus a couple of years ago. He has just recently made a comeback. It’s likely they’ll do better than in 2001 (probably around 5%).
They’ve just been throw out the “Independence and Democracy” group at the Euro Parliament….apparently they were too much even for UKIP.
27 Far too right wing for anyone I would have thought.
26.”Really interesting piece, andrea - thanks! Is there a minimum level that parties have to reach to qualify for PR seats (5% in Germany, 2% in Denmark, 4% in Sweden)? - and if so, might this affect the result if someone in the coalitions struggles to meet it?”
Nick, at the House of Deputies the the threshold is 2% for parties in a coaltion with more than 10% or 4% if a party runs alone. The first party under the threshold in each coalition could get seats too.
At the Senate, the threshold for parties in coalition is 3% at regional level…so you could get seats in Tuscany because you poll 3% there, but not in Lombardia, because you poll 2.5% there.
On the second point, no, it won’t affect it, because votes for the little parties under 2% are still considered to decide which coalition should get the bonus seats.
it’s a weird system…PR, but at House of Deputies, the winning coalition will get at least 340 seats out of 630….so a majority of 50 even if they won by 1%.
Thanks Andrea; a very interesting article.
O/T, but MORI’s March poll (a week to 10 days older than the latest Yougov) is Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 19%.
WRT party funding, it would be better to raise the absurdly low limits on spending per constituency, which just encourage cheating.
90 - Any ideas why MORI is consistently out of line with the other polls at the moment? They always give labour a substantial lead (in fact barely changed since the election) as opposed to being neck and neck.
Sean. I know people don’t take MORI as seriously as the other pollsters but since Cameron became leader their polls have read;
Con 40 Lab 31 Lib 21
Con 40 Lab 38 Lib 17
Con 35 Lab 38 Lib 20
Con 34 Lab 39 Lib 19
And this is their “Certain to Vote” poll.
Isn’t it likely if this trend continues that Conservatives will start to ask cameron and Co what they think they’re playing at?
Sean. I know people don’t take MORI as seriously as the other pollsters but since Cameron became leader their polls have read;
Con 40 Lab 31 Lib 21
Con 40 Lab 38 Lib 17
Con 35 Lab 38 Lib 20
Con 34 Lab 39 Lib 19
And this is their “Certain to Vote” poll.
Isn’t it likely if this trend continues that Conservatives will start to ask cameron and Co what they think they’re playing at?
Nice piece Andrea. Sorry I was not around to proof read it for you! I have been so busy with elections in Sutton.
I went off the figires as reported in the link above which are different, similar trend but much more favourable to labour. Certainty or not to vote obviously being a factor.
35 “figures” not “figires”.
31. MORI conduct their interviews face to face and their samples are larger. They consider this gives them a wide enough cross section so that they then don’t then need to adjust their figures (I think!)
Unlike all the other pollsters MORI do not weight by past vote which almost everybody else in the polling industry regards as a vital check on distorted samples.
To give you an idea of the scale of sample distortion- at the General election Labour got 36.2% of the vote. Yet of all the people surveyed by ICM in every single since last May more that 44% said they had voted Labour on May 5th. Since last December the proportion has increased to more than 47%.
I’ve started keeping detailed records of all polls and there has not been a survey in recent times where those claiming to have voted Labour has not been vastly in excess of those that did.
We rely on the pollsters’ methodologies to correct this. Mori has got this wrong. I think that ICM has got it most right.
37 Andrea - great article…
Do you know if the polls you quote have a habit of overstating either coalition’s support historically? Or is there no equivalent to shy Tories?
30 - the limits per constituency are reasonably sensible. What’s crazy is that the parties can do ‘national’ campaign spending that targets target seats - this is what all three parties did at the last election with direct mail. The only real way to stop this is to cap national spending. Realistically a leader’s tour, PEBs and the other necessities of a general election cost £2-3m so a cap of £5m would not be unreasonable. It would basically stop direct mail on a colossal scale (which favours whoever can raise the most money) and posters (which are mainly a waste of money as far as anyone can work out).
oops… sorry the reply to Roger got edited out… Does anyone know how big Mori’s samples are?
39. Anna, the problem is that polls aren’t allowed in the last 2 weeks, so pollsters can always claim everything is changed in those 2 weeks…..
Btw, my mother is trying to lower the turnout as much as possible…a co-worker told her he thinks he won’t turnout out to vote, because he has always voted for the far right and he’s annoyed they’re allied with the centre-right. So my mother replied: “yes, you’re right. If I had been you, I wouldn’t turn out to vote. I’m undecided too. They’re all the same. I should go to Church to decide who to vote”
To be honest, not sure why she mentioned the Church!
41. the one of the last poll was 1,928.
to the “Which one of these definitions, if any, comes closest to your own political views?” question, the replies are:
new Lab 18%
Old Lab 16%
Liberal 12%
One Nation Tory 11%
Tatcherite Tory 11%
Social Democrat 6%
Nationalist 4%
42 Does the Catholic Church support one of the coalitions perhaps? In America it is standard practice in some churches for the pastor to implicit support one or other of the candidates…
BTW apologies for running away yesterday… domestic disaster…
43 And Don’t Know?
43 - That seems to go up and down a lot, this time they seemed to find 50% more new labour supporters and considerably more liberals than last time, a lot of old labour voters seemed to disappear!
That doesn’t say much about the consistency of sampling.
44. Anna, implicit support probably. The “official” line is to support candidates who support catholic values.
then the left accuses the Church to be right wing and the right accuses it to be left wing…..it probably depends on who and where….I know that some nuns sent back Silvio’s letter and leaflets….but some other figures are known as supporters of the centre-right.
43. 13% none of these
8% don’t know
1% others
46 People probably don’t understand what all of the terms mean either…
BTW A sample of 1,928 doesn’t give that much more accurate results than a sample of 1,000. The ends of the confidence interval are calculated using 1/(sq root sample size)… In rough handfuls if the sample is as representative of the population, you’d expect to be 1/3 more accurate…
43 so all 3 main parties pretty divided.
47 I don’t suppose issues like abortion or stem cell research really dominate Italian politics…
51. Anna, actually quite a lot of talks about abortion recently. And insemination and civil partnerships for gay couples.
Not exact of course but adding together
New & Old Labour = 34%
One Nation & Thatcherite Tory = 22%
Liberal & Social Democrat = 18%
I suppose a few social democrats may go to the labour column further inflating that vote and decreasing the lib dem vite but, adjusted for don’t knows that’s
Labour 46%
Tory 30%
LD 24%
Are the don’t knows disproportionately tory?
32 - I don’t take MORI seriously full stop, never mind since Cameron became leader. Over the past few years they have produced figures which have fluctuated all over the place. ICM and YouGov are the pollsters I pay attention to (ICM is currently showing a Lab lead, YouGov has the honours even, so you can’t accuse me of favouring pollsters which favour the Tories).
Won’t Berlusconi’s campaign ’bout Prodi (”who will raise taxes”, he goes on sayin’) help him? (After opinion polls have been stopped in Italy, politicalbetting is the only way to understand political trends in Italy. We need your neutral opinion).
55. “Won’t Berlusconi’s campaign ’bout Prodi (”who will raise taxes”, he goes on sayin’) help him? ”
It could. As a centre-left supporter, I’m worried by that tactic.
55.”After opinion polls have been stopped in Italy, politicalbetting is the only way to understand political trends in Italy”
if the betfair market has low liquidity, it could be “unreliable” as a predictor (like the Dunfermline market pointed out to a Lab win)
Re. the earlier point about Labour and democracy, it would obviously help if the Cabinet system in local government was abolished in favour of a return to the committee system, which enabled every councillor to have a say in the running of the council.
As for the Legislative and Regulatory Reform Bill, it is not only wrong in itself, but Labour ministers don’t seem to realise that a future Conservative government could easily use this to push through legislation which would fall victim to a backbench rebellion. John Patten’s plans to neuter student unions by requiring students to opt-in (rather than opt-out) were, for example, dropped after a revolt in the Lords (and, given the opposition of backbench MPs such as Sir David Knox and Sebastian Coe, it was far from guaranteed that the Lords defeat could be overturned in the Commons). Under the Legislative and Regulatory Reform Bill, though, they could have been implemented by an Order in Council.
Andrea- again, as someone who knows little about Italian politics, thank you. A few questions:
- is Prodi a popular figure, or has he turned into an anti-Berlusconi figure? He seems to have had several jobs in the past years relating to Europe etc. Does that help is stature as an important firgure or just make him another career politician?
-also, is there a big funding difference between the parties? (I would guess yes!) Are there strict limits on party funding/who can fund the campaigns?
59. Tim.
1) Prodi has also been PM from 1996 to 1998. He defeated Berlusconi in 1996 (also thanks to the fact that Northern League was running alone at the time). He has a very calm style (some would say boring) and he’s not a great comunicator in British sense. But he doesn’t “scare” people.
He’s quite old too, but Berlusconi isn’t younger either…thats’ maybe a more general problem of Italian politics.
2) I’m not an experct on fundings. I see lots of posters and propaganda by Berlusconi around.
There’re some lmitis on how much each candidate could spend.
60. limits are:
- for candidates: no more than 52,000 euro + 0.01*the numbers of people registred to vote in the electoral zone he/she is contesting
- for parties: 1 euro * the number of people registred in the House of Deputies electoral zones the party is contesting and the number of people registred in the Senate’s electoral zones contested by the party
See the Lib Dems have their General Election candidate, a local councillor, adopted for Moray, she was just behind Labour and the Conservatives at the General, although the Assembly voting philosophy may be slightly different.
Increases the test for the Conservatives.
Fascinating the SNP called the election for the week before the English locals, is there a hidden agenda. Presumably it was to get maximum publicity for their anticipated victory?
62. She was the LD candidate in Moray at 2001 GE and 2003 Scottish election too.
62. btw, the Libdems claimed they could win Moray and they’ll throw resources in it to repeat a Dunfermline type result:
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=504072006
It’s always safest to compare with earlier polls from the same organisation. Other MORI bits of interest:
* This poll with 39/34/19 is extremely similar to MORI’s last poll before the General Election, which was 38/33/23.
* There is a “best PM” question, with Brown on 35, Cameron 26, Campbell 9; the same question by MORI in December with Kennedy produced 31/27/17. Obviously Campbell is not yet as well-known but this isn’t very encouraging for the LDs. The modest extension in the Brown-Cameron difference is not too surprising as Decmeber was the month Cameron frenzy peaked, and it’s less than the swing in party preference (Tories were well ahead in the December poll).
* The current poll shows people seriously pessimistic about the economy.
Looking at the last few polls, I think Labour is starting to nose ahead as the Cameron honeymoon trickles away. *If* people’s perception of the economic outlook improves, we may start to see Labour consistently a few points in front (and it will help Brown’s lead over Cameron extend further too - I’m certain this is heavily correlated by what people think of the economy).
The fascinating info on where people put themselves on the electoral spectrum shows the underlying difficulty that the Tories have, as ukpaul’s totals show. To get to 40%, they basically need all their 22% core vote plus all the undecideds, or a pile of converts.
Italian candidates for Parliament who could interest male readers:
http://www.puntinipuntini.it/celebrity/m_carfagna/images/03.jpg
http://www.repubblica.it/2005/j/gallerie/gente/fiorebrass/esterne221725322203172556_big.jpg
They’re both in good positions: they should be in (especially the first one)
Thanks Andrea for an interesting topic and Mike again for introducing this series of guest articles . One complaint though . I had thought that these articles were destined for a Monday so for a moment today I thought I should have been at work instead of here feet up .
Thanks for the article Andrea - very interesting and well-written (as usual). One question - whats the logic behind the fortnight ban on polls?
66 Like the first one especially - Raven hair Ruby Lips Sparks fly from her fingertips .
Nick 65. I agree with much of your analysis except your final point - this question asking people how they rate put themselves on the political spectrum just shows how distorted the sample is.
Unless you weight by past vote or recorded party identifier, as with YouGov, you have no control mechanism to ensure that the sample is representative.
Thus based on the party identifier questions the poll was made up of 43% identifying themselves as Labour, 27.8% Tory and 22.7% Lib Dem.
Thus the voting intention has Labour share considerably down on those saying they they are Labour while the Tory share is up.
Distorted samples need to be corrected before you can draw conclusions.
68. Lennon. it’s well written because I’ve sent it to proof read to half of the world!
The ban of polls…I think that it’s done because polls could influence public opinions, but I’m not 100% sure.
Campaigning is also banned the day of the election and the day before.
69. Mark, there’re other positions of the second one.
The 2 linked at 66 are both of Forza Italia.
Jack W prefers this one:
http://www.vladimirluxuria.it/06/manif.pdf
62 -it is up to the Presiding Officer to call the election.
64 - I see we have a first on civil partnerships too
(don’t know if the link will work). Nice lttle story.
http://election.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=783&id=502062006
Linda Gorn has made a lot of progress in Moray. I will do some telephone canvassing for her over the next couple of weeks.
74. The last time I read about a LD civil partnership, it was a camp cerimony with Lorely Burt dressed as Anne of Cleves.
Gorn did very well in 2001 GE, reasonably well in Holyrood 2003 election and decent last year.
47 - Andrea. Excellent article! Following on from Anna’s point about support from the Roman Catholic Church you mention a division in perception, with those on the left regarding the Church as a supporter of the right, and those on the right the reverse. I have read in different places that the centre-right (presumably the UDC) has a lot of support within the inner echelons of the Roman Curia - from Cardinal Ruini (the Pope’s Vicar for the Diocese of Rome) in particular. Do you know if this is correct? If so, it must have quite a lot of sway within a certain sector of the electorate.
76. My dear Alastair, the centre-right has certainly the implicit support of many Churchmen.
Ruini is widely disliked by Left activists.
The accuse to the Church of rooting for the left has been made here in Milan….but I think it was caused by a speech of the BIshop in which he stressed some themes that are usually the main themes of the left.
The 2 big Catholic organizations are Comunione e Liberazione (sympatethic with the centre-right) and Azione Cattolica (more sympathetic to the centre-left).
77 - Many thanks, Andrea. Naturally, His Holiness would never express a preference nor give the appearance of doing so, but considering his ideological thinking as set out in the books he has written before he came to the Throne of St Peter, it seems safe a safe guess that his sympathies lie with the centre-right as well.
78. Alistair, I’ve little doubts of that
78. cont…
the Church is against some policies like civil partnership for gay couples and they loudly express it….naturally the centre-right is agaist too, while in the centre-left there’re different opinions with the catholic centre not very happy about them and the left (+ Rosa nel pugno) being for them.
79 - Indeed. I find myself in illustrious company then.
Disasterous day with Tabman - Walkers stadium had 30,000 Leicester supporters plus 3 bath supporters Tabbers, Tabbers sister and her bloke, that I smuggled in.
Read the papers, but though Tigers played awfully they should easily have won - especially against 13 men at the end.
Tabbers sister very nice - though anyone who buys me a hot dog will do for me!
82 - In much the same way as John Gummer did for his daughter some years back?
And for similar raesons? 
I’m not sure how useful that “party identification” from MORI. I could imagine that some people who describe themselves either as “Liberals” or as “Nationalists” would vote Conservative; while some who describe themselves as “social democrats” would vote Labour; quite a lot of “Old Labour” probably vote Green, Lib Dem or perhaps for radical right parties, or don’t vote at all. And there are probably “One Nation Conservatives” who vote Labour or Lib Dem.
Wonder what the odds at William Hills are on the Lib Dems winning at Moray. Should get 25-1, will enquire.
83 - That was a hamburger though, wasn’t it?
86 - My Lord, Indeed, but these LibDems aren’t noted for their discernment, are they?
87 - Quite right. Frightful little oiks, aren’t they?
AHM, charmed I’m sure.
Frightful and an oik I may well be, but I would dispute your middle word in the phrase!!!!!!
89 - Note the emoticon and don’t get your knickers in a twist, David. As to size, I’m sure I could not possibly comment!
90. “As to size, I’m sure I could not possibly comment! ”
but you could say it from the shoes…at least it’s what you told me!
don’t wear knickers!!!!
91 - That’s what they say! Though I suspect it’s an old wives’ tale…
92 -
92. you’re Petronella Wyatt* and I claim my 5 pants!
* Hunky Dunky was asked her if she wears knickers and she replied that they spoil the line of your clothes
maybe knickers will make this thread pass the 100 comments!!!!
Andrea, plenty for AHM to think about then.
97 - On the contrary, I am trying very hard to forget!
Completely OT (sorry Andrea) - someone suggested Man U for the championship the other day as there are no worthwhile political bets - Did £10 on Bet fair at 18 - price now 8.4 - so screen all green.
Why didnt I do £1000?
98 probably wise
101 Andrea interesting article. I despair a little though, that you have the choice of B and the Prof. Distinctly a classical conundrum.
Any opinions of the best April Fool’s joke today?
I thought that Nick Palmer was on holiday? Nulab so worried that they have to keep everyone on deck?
Thanks to all who said the piece was interesting!
53. One Nation Tory + Liberal = 23%
Good piece, Andrea. I’ll write one as soon as I can figure out how to intertwine a political point with Cesc Fabregas.
Oh by the way, assuming Unione win - do you think they’ll be stable enough to govern for a reasonable amount of time?
104. Julian, I hope they’ll be able to rule in the long term if they win…..it’ll probably depend on how the various parties inside the coalitions will poll next weekend……if the commies leave the government again, I think centre-left activists will kill them!