Sean Fear’s local election slot
April 28th, 2006
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WHY DO LOCAL ELECTIONS MATTER TO NATIONAL PARTIES?
Local councils have had their independence curtailed under successive government. Three quarters of local government income comes from Government grants, while local councils themselves are required to jump through endless hoops set up for them by central Government.
In some European countries, politicians become well known as the mayors of major cities, before embarking on national political careers. That would be almost unthinkable in this country.
Although many members of Parliament have been local councillors, one has the impression that it is done more as something they can show on their CV to a Constituency Association, rather than because of the intrinsic importance of the job.
Local councils lack independence, and cannot be regarded as a real training ground for future national politicians.
However, local council elections matter in one very important respect. All parties are crucially dependent on local councillors to maintain their base in any particular constituency. They are the people who canvass, deliver leaflets, write letters to the papers, and keep their party before the local electorate
.If a party’s local councillor base is destroyed in a particular area, then sooner or later, its support at Parliamentary level will evaporate too. It happened to the Conservatives in Glasgow, and several Northern cities, and it is happening now to Labour in parts of the South of England.
By contrast, a strong local government base will not guarantee success at Parliamentary level, but is almost always a prerequisite for it. No amount of direct mailing, advertising, and paid telephone canvassing by political parties at national level, will produce the same impact as a well organised local party organisation.
Last night’s by-elections produced, perhaps surprisingly, one gain for Labour.
East Hampshire DC - Clanfield and Finchdean: Lib Dem 733, C 550. Lib Dem hold.
East Lindsey DC - Mablethorpe East: Lab 213, C 123, Lib Dem 114, UKIP 46. Lab gain from Lib Dem.
North Cornwall DC- Bodmin St Petroc’s: Lib Dem 821, C 463. Lib Dem hold.
This is the last round of by-elections before next week’s local elections. It only remains to wish good luck to all those who are standing.
Sean Fear
Sean is a London Tory activist and was almost the first member of his party to post on the site. He writes a weekly commentary on local elections.
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I thought that there were 5 local by-elections in England yesterday? Did Labour not win another from the LibDems; and the Conservatives one from the Freedom Party?
ColinW posted this on the previous strand. Is this correct? Were there 3 (as Sean reports), or 5?
By Election Results 27th April 2006
East Hampshire DC, Clanfield & Finchdean
LD Samantha Payne 733 (57.1 +3.5)
Con 550 (42.9 –3.5)
Majority 183. Turnout 33.8. LD hold. Last fought 2003.
East Lindsey DC, Mablethorpe East
Lab 213 (42.9 +10.2)
Con 123 (24.8 +24.8)
LD Helen Parkhurst 114 (23.0 –12.9)
UKIP 46 (9.3 +9.3). Ind [0.0 –31.4]
Majority 90. Turnout 34.13. Lab gain LD. Last fought 2003.
North Cornwall, Bodmin St Petroc
LD Arwen Folkes 821 (63.9 +23.9)
Con 463 (36.1 +17.7)
Ind [0.0 –41.5]
Majority 358. Turnout 25.77. LD hold.
Mablethorpe & Sutton TC, Mablethorpe East
LD Irene Daw 225 (49.6)
Lab 229 (50.4)
Majority 4. Turnout 33.79. Lab gain LD.
Wombourne PC, South West
Con 274 (52.1)
LD Ian Sadler 252 (47.9)
Majority 22. Turnout 11.39. Con gain Freedom Party
Sean doesn’t include Town Council and other smaller contests as it doesn’t help much when weiging up how the parties are doing overall (on the grounds that some politics is just TOO local)
The Mablethorpe result is s little strange . It appears that the Lib Dems only won the seat in 2003 because there was no Conservative candidate . Compare the town council figures where there is no Conservative candidate .
Perhaps it’s not that surprising that Labour gained Mablethorpe East from the Lib Dems, givn that last time when the ward was fought, Conservatives didn’t stand.
4 - Sorry Mark, should have reloaded the page before posting.
The Mablethorpe result will be a straw to clutch to for all those decent Labour councillors facing defeat next week because of the pigs ear that their government is making of things.
A good example of this is in Rochford, Essex , where the last remaining Labour councillor is under siege from the local Conservative election machine (current make-up of council: Con 32 Libdem 4 Ind 2 Lab 1).
Even some of the local Tory councillors feel apologetic about the prospect of beating her.
It may be that “good” Labour councillors have a better chance of surviving next week in the smaller district seats where they have a chance of getting a personal following rather than in the bigger, more anonymous, city wards
7. I don’t know how much can be read into town council results and how representative the party label is at that level (in that as you say, there is a much better chance of a personal vote being important).
As far as local by-elections can be useful guides to the national picture, I would generally put a big health warning on any where one or more of the main parties is not standing, there is a vote for a minor party of more than about 10% or the number of votes cast is less than 1000.
Are any of this round of locals all postal like 2003? Will that be repeated?
O/T - Andrea, the Cleggasausrus has been much evident on the BBC tonight
9. Tabman, who are the Cleggasausrus? Old supporters of Nick Clegg?
10 - Our Nick himself! ON News at Ten, and Any Questions.
9, 10, 11- Cleggasaurus
12. I thought about dinosaurs…..
13 - nah, that’s Clarke
14. According to Dave, the Chameleon, it’s Dobson!
Tomorrow’s serving from our wonderful press. Prescott’s former mistress dumps on him. She gets dumped on by her former fiance ( big time). Steve Mclaren ( next england manager?) premptively coughs on his personal life. A bit of-temporary- diversion for Clarke.
A chameleon is just a slightly more evolved dinosaur
16. And that’s just The Telegraph……
I understand Nick Clegg, as all the LD frontbenchers do these days, likes to style himself Shadow Home Secretary and refers to David Davis as Conservative Home Affairs Spokesman - so it’s not only election outcomes that LDs like to hyperbolise about!
Its quite a good technique though and I might adopt it; I can describe my car as a Maclaren F1 instead of an old Saab, my house can become a grade II listed manor and not a Barratt shoebox and the bottle of Tesco wine with dinner becomes a nice bottle of 1948 Petrus. No wonder LDs seem to have a different take on things - Panglossianism works it really does, and I’ve been missing out by living in the real world.
Looking at the last couple of weeks results together, the Lib Dems have lost seats in Lincolnshire and Derbyshire, but held/gained seats in Hampshire, Wiltshire, Somerset and Cornwall. Their vote appears to be pretty robust in their areas of traditional strength.
19 - well, shadows titles have no official standing anyway. They came into use because the Tories, er, decided they would like to style themselves that way.
If you want Panglossianism, try boosting your eco-halo by riding your bike to work, and ignore the chauffeur bringing your papers in the car. You could even bike to the airport before getting your private jet to Norway on an environmental mission.
21
But make sure that you keep quiet about that gas guzzling Jag that youv’e had for 20 years whilst youv’e been preaching your green credentials!
Also make sure you use a friend’s barn to keep the Jag in so the neighbours don’t see it,it could be embarrassing!
Are my eyes deceiving me? What happened to Chrisco’s comment? I am sure it was here a few minutes ago……
23 - it might be on the other thread!
Ms Temple is a woman of a certain age. Having displayed her laundry in public she is soiled goods, romantically and professionally.
She should now be looking for financial security. The more and the jucier the gossip she has to sell, the more security she can achieve.
The Bar Steward Prescott, should be concerned.
19 - Have the Conservatives registered the words “shadow… cabinet, secretary, chancellor and minister” as their trade mark? If not, could you please just shut up?
Would not underestimate Labour to hold on in the north. Conservatives should have a reasonable Thursday, not so confident about the Liberal Democrats, many of the large authorities were fought in 2004 on new boundaries when they came second with 28% locally. Difficult to see how they can match that. Think some Lib Dems will be disappointed on Friday. If they do well however then they will have polled in close to or beyond recond numbers.
27 - Some months ago I would have agreed with you . At the time of the pb.com competition at the end of December I expected Labour to make some gains back from the Lib Dems in the Metropolitan Councils because the results in 2004 were so bad for them . Current signs are now though that Labour are going to do even worse than in 2004 but next Thursday will tell .
Hi Mark, I think the north may be a close re-run of 2004. Labour talking up Lib Dems to take St Helens, but if they hold they will champion that, as with Lambeth. Cannot see much change in Manchester unless Labour are really in a right pickle.
Conservatives should do well in Bury and the Rossendale Valley towns.
Sheffield may just go back to the LDs, they may strenghten slightly in Birmingham, Preston, Bolton, Wigan, Warrington, Derby, Huddersfield,Bradford,Leeds and Hull, but not dramatic enough to hit the headlines.
Really to hold onto their 2004 gains will be an achievement.
In my view this contest far outweighs the Cons/Lib Dem issues in the south, however any Labour swing to the Lib Dems in the south
could well let the Cons in to win seats without them increasing their own vote. Therefore on Friday the Cons will have the most gains and that will be headlined.
29 - Hi David , I don’t see the Lib Dems taking St Helens this year probably will be NOC , the 2 Conservative wards are safe and no like;lihood of any gains for them and IIRC the split wards are being defended equally by Lab and Lib Dem . There will as you say be little chance of actual change in Council control in the Mets this year but I am now more optimistic of net Lib Dem gains from Labour .
Mark, mind you back in the 80’s I stood for the Liberal Alliance in the neighbouring Wigan ward to St Helens. The Liberals just had a group of councillors in Newton Le Willows, and that was a dog fight each year with Labour, some they won, some they lost. Very pleased to see any extension into other parts of the Council.
I agree with you, St Helens Labour are talking the Lib Dems up so that if they hold or there is NOC, they can claim to have done well.
The Cons should do well in London, they must come up from the 2002
base, there agian the Lib Dems should do the same.
Bet Rik is working hard this weekend, suspect a Lib Dem hold in Sutton with a reduced majority, but he might suprise us. He does work hard and deserves some success.
Any news Rik.
Marcia comments the other night about lots of Orange posters in one part of Walthamstowe suggests Leyton might be closer than the betting indicates.Labour should hold though. Lib Dems did poll quite heavily in Walthamstowe at the general.
On a darker note, expect some BNP high votes and probable gain or two, maybe more in Sandwell and maybe Dudley.
26-jd
Have a look at the official UK parliamentary directory ,have a look under Her Majesty’s official oppossition and see if you can find a single Lib Dem ‘SPOKESPERSON’ listed there?
A few year’s back it was ‘Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government’ then with some 50 MP’s in 2004 it was ‘we are the official opposition now’,now they are using the titles of ‘Her majesty’s official oppossition’ all very childish really but par for the Lib Dems course.
32. I think you’ll find in Scotland both the SNP and Tories refer to their “shadow” ministers.
Sean Fear
75% of local government finance is covered by grants from central government,what percentage of local government finance is covered by business rates?
33 - I don’t see why the Tories should have a monopoly to the term “shadow cabinet”. I don’t know about a law preventing the existence of several shadow cabinets at the same time. Do you?
From Sky News TV
Conservative leader David Cameron asked for Sky News footage to be withdrawn from screen after a disagreement with one of the channel’s senior reporters.
The problem arose at the end of two days of filming the politician pounding the streets of Britain ahead of next week’s local elections.
Sky correspondent Joey Jones was trailing Mr Cameron, with the agreement of his team, and took footage of him pressing the flesh in Kingston Upon Thames and Newcastle, before concluding his feature with a face-to-face interview.
But it was then, the Tory leader became uncomfortable with questions about why he wanted to change the party - and he broke away from the interview, becoming increasingly flustered, gesticulating and dismissive.
Jones had told viewers that next week’s elections would be the first “real test” for Mr Cameron but that more conventional party members and some quarters of the Tory press were worried he was moving too far from core Tory values.
Mr Cameron admitted the day before that he woke up “every morning thinking what more can we do to change the Conservative party”.
But when Jones asked him if that meant he disliked the current party, the interview disintegrated.
“I do, of course, I do (like the party),” said Mr Cameron, “but my job is to win new support for the Conservative party”. He then talked about the Government “imploding,” so Jones tried again to find out what he did not like about today’s Tory ethos and why he believed it needed changing.
“You must understand why people who have voted Conservative….are going to be unnerved if you are obsessed with changing it,” he asked.
“It’s not a question of obsession. I wake up every morning thinking how I can improve the fortunes of the party,” Mr Cameron replied.
Attempt three: “But what’s wrong with the current Conservative party?”
“The problem is….” He sighs. “I mean where is this interview going? We are going round and round and round. What are we doing here?” replied Mr Cameron. “Sorry, I thought we were doing a short interview. It’s now turning into a half hour thing…..I thought it was a few pictures in different locations and….”
In less than 10 minutes the interview is brought to an end. Mr Cameron and his media team then ask that the footage where he stumbles, is not shown.
Jones said it was a “sour end” to their time together. “The likelihood is that despite his (David Cameron’s) best efforts, the Tory showing next Thursday will be less than spectacular.
“If that’s the case, the question as to whether he was wise to try and transform the Conservative party will reoccur with greater insistence and he will be well advised to get used to it.”
34 - it’s about 50% revenue support grant, 25% business rates (collected and distributed centrally), 25% Council Tax. Suspect that will vary depending on the level of the RSG…
32 - “Have a look at the official UK parliamentary directory”
Have a look yourself.
http://www.parliament.uk/directories/hciolists/libdems.cfm
David Cameron - petulant?
Who’d have thunk it…
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