Will Labour get its bank holiday poll bounce?
April 29th, 2006
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Why you should be wary of surveys taken during long weekends
With so much going on the political front there are almost certain to be opinion surveys carried out this weekend. If they are then treat them with extra caution because they might be subject to the bank holiday effect.
Many will remember the famous Populus tracker poll that was published on the day before the General Election last year and showed Labour on 41%, the Tories on 27% with the Lib Dems at 23%. While the figure for Charles Kennedy’s party was almost spot on the poll over-estimated Labour’s eventual support by five points and underestimated the Tories by six.
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In the post-mortem afterwards Labour’s 14% lead was put down to the “bank holiday effect.” For whatever reason pollsters find it extraordinarily difficult getting balanced samples during long holiday weekends. Tories, in particular, are in very short supply.
The survey was based on interviews that took place on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday of the May bank holiday weekend. The tracker poll before that and the Populus final poll showed much smaller Labour margins.
Looking at the detailed data from the Populus 14% poll you can see the challenge the pollster faced. For every two people they could find who said they had voted Labour at the previous General Election less than one person was interviewed who had voted Tory.
The problem is that although correcting mechanisms are in place to deal with sample distortion not all is taken into account. Populus is currently weighting its polls on the basis of a 9% Labour lead from last May - triple the actual figure. I am much happier with the ICM calculation which has it at 6.5%. Still Populus is substantially better than Mori which has no past vote weighting adjustment at all.
This bank holiday phenomenon is so well-known that Anthony Wells of UK PollingReport suggested on Tuesday that the the April ICM survey for the Guardian had been put back a week to avoid interviews taking place over Easter.
So if a poll does come out during the next few days check the survey dates very closely. For any sign that Labour is weathering the current crisis might be because party supporters are much more likely than Tories to be be at home answering the phone during long weekends.
Mike Smithson
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Maybe not this time as tomorrow expect lurid headlines in the Sunday tabloids.
The political scene is so fluid at the moment, that I think all polls need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt, bank holiday or not.
Labour seem to be nosediving and in one mess after another, but at the moment the Tories are not benefiting anything like to the extent that Blair did in the early-mid nineties. Interestingly, neither are the Lib Dems.
Would it be possible for Sean Fear to also give the votes in the local elections last time so we can make comparisons?
John Marsh
3 - Detailed results from previous years are on the Plymouth university site , the link to Data Uk Lcals on the right does not work at present but a bit of fiddling can get access to the site and detailed vote shares by Metropolitan , Unitary etc .
Pot found at John Reid’s house - deary me !
Is Labour trying to break some sort of record?
Italian Senate has failed to agree on a Speaker, but will have another go this morning…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4953042.stm
Anyone know whether they just keep balloting indefinitely until they agree on someone?
5 - this is an odd story.
[quote from BBC}
It is understood Strathclyde Police discovered the drugs during a standard sweep at Mr Reid’s property.
The press office says no charges or further action will be taken and that police have finished an investigation.
The BBC understands the drugs - which have not been identified - were thought to be there before Mr Reid moved in.
But hang on. A “standard sweep” is surely a regular procedure. So why would you conclude that if the drugs weren’t found on the previous sweep, they were “there before Mr* Reid moved in”?
* - I know how proud he is of his PhD, but I am just quoting the Beeb here.
Is his PhD in horticulture?
8 - perhaps it was ther first time Dr Reid had been regularly swept…
Or perhaps Mr Straw had had a family visit there?
Message for Abingdon Neil. Some residents of Thorne House, E14 were amazed on coming home yseterday to discover that a Lib Dem candidate had called and removed all postal votes, insisting to the elderly relative present that he was expected to take them.
I suggest that you get him to return them, preferably unvoted, before G.G arrives on the scene, otherwise you will find yourself in some serious Oaten.
Anna see the Agence France Presse world news site. It appears that the voting rules change in the fourth round so all the centre Left candidate needs is a simple majority. On my calculation that’s 158 and he’s been getting 161 so it should be all over any time now. What gives me slight pause is that AFP say the winning candidate needed a two thirds majority in the first three rounds but then say that 162 was the magic number which is nowhere near two thirds of 215. Where’s Andrea?
12. Blue Moon, in the 4th ballot, just the 2 top candidates remain in the race and the ones with more votes will be elected. So we’ll have a spaker of the senate by the end of the day.
2/3 majority was needed at the House of Deputies in the first 3 rounds. Bertinotti has now been elected Speaker of the House of Deputies in the third round. He’s currently making his win speech in front of MPs.
jon at 6 - lol!
11,
The Lib Dems seem to be out of the Oaten now,at least in the general publics mind.
Happy birthday Jeremy Thorpe. Only 77 today. Now approaching 27 years of enforced retirement. We are still awaiting the memoirs.
Nick On the subject of a reshuffle do you favour a radical series of changes or a more limited one. If the former how does Blair deal with Brown who will not be pleased with any changes unless his allies benefit. Also on Clarke since there are bound to be one or two serious reoffenders from the 288 for which he was responsible surely he has to go or at least be moved. Hewitt ought to be moved, not because she was shouted down, but because her patronising manner is surely damaging in such an important post. As for Prescott the story has, if you’ll pardon the expression, plenty of legs. Shouldn’t he leave the cabinet but stay as deputy Leader of the Party in order to spend time repairing his marriage?
17. How about Brown to the home office as the big troubleshooter and Ed Balls could become chancellor.
Brown to Foreign Office; Darling for Chancellor; Straw back to Home Office; Office of Deputy PM to be scrapped and broken up - to be looked after by - Margaret Beckett in interim (safe experienced pair of hands etc)election to be held for deputy leader; Nick Brown brought back to DEFRA (a Gordon cronie - and Gordon’s demand for losing the Chancellorship.
I don’t care where GB goes, as long as he moves from the Treasury. I would feel a lot happier if the next PM has experience in more than one job in Government.(And GB will be the next PM) Home Office would probably kill two birds with one stone.
TB became PM with experience of no jobs in government.
19. With Tony being so interested in foreign policies, I suppose it’ll be a fight every 2 days between him and Gordon at Foreign office
21. Yes…..and look what happened!
16 - Incredible to think that Thopre “retired” aged only 50, with his slightly awkward and gaunt appearance, he was one of those people who always looked 50!
Thorpe never got the credit that he deserved. It was on his watch that the Liberals first broke the two party dominance of Labour and Conservative (ably preceded by Grimond of course). In the first flush of my youth, I admit I dallied in that political direction (though not…err…sexual, I must add).
Don’t bet on any early reshuffle - the intervening 2005 general election notwithstanding; this has been anticipated for the past 2-3 years - but unlike Mr Sugar, it would seem that our beloved PM is not very skilled in the art of firing.
25. Hardly suprising though, really.
17: I’m a fan of Clarke’s and think that objectively he’s in the right job and should stay, but won’t comment on wider reshuffle issues, since I know everyone involved personally: I’m sure you wouldn’t want to put a notice up at your place of work suggesting new jobs for all your colleagues!
28 - Are you waiting by the phone, Nick, for the call this weekend?
I see Clarke is trying another desperate expedient by ordering ‘raids’ across Britain to find the missing offenders - a bit late for macho posturing of this kind, I would have thought.
What with the fiasco over foreign criminals & the slow handclapping by the Nurses it does look like Labour is impolding on itself.
30,
Don`t know if he can order.
However he can request cheif constables to act.
Nevertheless some might be a bit grumpy in helping him, after forced amalgamations of certain forces about to go through.
Anyways I am sure any redundancies of cheif constables, they will be well compensated.
The sad thing is they’re still gonna win the next election bar divine intervention or a house price slump.
This John Reid stuff is somewhat bizarre. I thought for a police search, the police had to have a warrant issued agreed by a local magistrate. In order to do that presumably they have to a good reason for suspecting something illegal is going on. BTW I don’t suspect for a moment that JR is involved in any illegality, but I don’t feel this story is being reported properly.
30,
In your area the cheif is constantly unhappy.
31. I wouldn’t go that far, but they don’t seem like a particularly healthy organisation at the moment, and we all know it could get a whole lot more ugly. Question is will the other two parties be able to capitalise on Labour’s weakness?
28. Fair play Nick.
Though after the fiasco of the last few days I think a reshuffle may help to draw a line under events and get the party back on message.
I’m presuming they sweep his house for his protection and he is completely innocent (if you regard smoking pot as serious anyway which I don’t).
Though it would be rather funny given his “few pleasures for the working class” remark about smoking tobacco… and I prefer Prescott to Reid any day PhD or not.
34. From my reading of it I got the impression it was a routine sweep of his house to make sure there wasn’t anything there that shouldn’t be (bombs, listening devices etc.), BBC are reporting it was found during a “security sweep”.
Many Labour supporters always vote Labour, no matter what - Labour knows it.
The best bet for Labour is to support the LibDems unless they want to see a Conservative government and reversal of open Immigration/Human Rights Law/EU sovereignty, an English Parliament etc
37. You be quicker on the keys than I!
Sorry that should read “best bet for labour supporters”…
28-Nick Palmer
‘I’m a fan of Clarke’s and think that objectively he’s in the right job and should stay,’
That’s hilarious!
Gross imcompetence and he’s in the right job,he’s lucky he doesn’t work in the private sector!
14.. Nick you will do well to beat the LD performance over the New Year but I feel you are very very close!
Thankfully ours are basically all personal habits which some people might think leave something to be desired but us Libs can tolerate… I’m not sure Clarke can survive really and not that easy for Prescott to escape shagging his junior. I know I would have been sacked for that in both my careers.
38 - Absolutely correct Tistoph, and I’m sure the same procedure is followed with all Cabinet Ministers with security sensitive positions.
Just very slightly odd that we are told that the police had closed their enquiries at the very same time the story first broke - presumably the condition of the “substance” found in the property would very clearly indicate the period of time it had been in place.
Looks like Mr Hain may be the next Cabinet minister in line for some HoC scrutiny next week.
42, Many do work in the private sector, with gross impcompetence.
I can assure you, and they are still making big money with big pay offs to boot.
does anyone actually think this is an issue:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/derbyshire/4953408.stm
I think its a good thing if we actually have 20 year olds wanting to be councilors.
I have to say if labour and the lib dems bother to complain they are being quite purile.
[16] Jeremy Thorpe’s still signing the Lib Dem nomination papers round here…
33 - did you see the Telegraph’s story about power lines and houses becoming unsellable/compulsory purchase of tens of thousands of properties?
Could be reshuffle of the century coming up….may well be TB’s last reshuffle, so less need to keep troops in line for later….also means that rebellious streaks may come to the fore.
And sigh, yes, if there was a GE tomorrow this lot would still be favourites to walk it. Sad really. But the locals should stir things up a bit.
Any latest inside goss? LDs seariously hoping to get first seats on Wandsworth council for first time in an age, but it’s not exactly a key marginal council…
Nick Fair enough but do you think there should be no reshuffle, a minimal reshuffle or no reshuffle? No names!
48 - isn’t there a Margaret Thatcher who signs Labour nomination papers in Merton?
I’d speculate that Kelly and Jowell would keep their briefs (we’re not talking scandal here, folks!!) Hain could be moved. He’s not exceptionally popular in N. Ireland. Perhaps he could go the Health or the Home Office? Hewitt will be shuffled away somewhere, perhaps environment if Beckett gets a greater role, or maybe leader of the House? Blair could still use Hoon for something else, but his “Mr. War” image wouldn’t do him any favours. Straw will probably stay at the foreign office. Prezza will probably survive. Clarke will be gone soon.
Those are my musings, anyway.
49 - Wouldn’t it be possible to reposition at least a high proportion of the power lines?
This concern has been around for at least the past 20 years - a bit like the mobile phone health scares, although I understand that there is far more potential radiation danger from using wireless phones from a conventional landline
I’ve just heard Nick Clegg on “Any Questions” on the prisoner release issue and I was appalled. He was totally illiberal in his view and just sounded like another cheap politician on the make producing bullish, ill-thought out sound bites. Amazingly he is making David Davis look like the liberal.
The people who have been released have served their time and paid their price to society - something that does not seem to be being brought out.
Clegg clearly hasn’t worked out the politics of this and he has diminished himself. Mark Oaten, the man he replaced, would have done a much better job.
Mike Smithson
Mike Smithson
oh dear..a Lib Dem being opportunist? surely not…..
53
Do you think that Prescott will survive the sunday tabloids?
Problem for TB is that he is running out of untarnished loyalists to fill these jobs, so you may be right that we get stuck with the present incompetents in these important jobs.
Hain in a major department like the Home Office would be great. Well for us Tories it would. Laugh a minute.
Hasn’t there been some natter that Straw would not want another job after the next reshuffle? For most Foreign Secs a follow on post is always difficult, unless it is one of the two top ones. And that seems most unlikely.
55 - can’t agree, Mike. If they had a record of such serious crimes abroad before they came here, they would not be allowed in. Why should they get preferential treatment because they committed their rapes, kidnappings, murders etc in this country rather than their country of origin?
55. I think the leadership is reacting (perhaps overreacting) to suggestions that the party is soft and woolly.
I didn’t hear what Clegg had to say on Any Questions, but from what I have heard him say about the issue its clear he is going for the kill.
To be fair to the man I have been reliably informed he is a decent man in person, and has got involved in some clearly liberal issues since being elected.
MS The people who have been released have served their time and paid their price to society - something that does not seem to be being brought out.
I think one of the problems is that they have not served their time.
And like other prisoners out on licence the system seems to be being abused. Sentences imposed by courts are being massively truncated. Whether this is to reduce overcrowding is moot. Sentences imposed by the courts should be served unless there are exceptional circumstances, mainly repentance and reform and genuine good behaviour.
I personally favour the use of sentences that specify a maximum and minimum perioid of incarceration where after the minimum a prisoner can be considered for parole or licence if he/she shows that it is deserved. But it is not automatic.
At the moment felons that are clearly a danger to us all seem getting licence as easily as a pensioner refusing to pay the poll tax. They are then often not supervised properly and sadly the reoffending rates are increasing and the suffering caused are all too real.
Whether intentionally or not the government is moving overcrowding of the prisons to overloading the probation service and police monitoring systems.
Mike they may have served their time but why should we take the risk of letting loose foreign criminals on our streets? Reoffending rates are, after all, very high for prisoners. Also for the more serious prisoners why should we bear the cost of post release supervision? If foreign nationals abuse our hospitality by committing crimes serious enough to warrant a sentence of imprisonment there should be a very high presumption in favour of deportation. In my view it would be better to get them serving their sentences in their own countries; cheaper for us and better for their rehabilitation ( because they would be in proximity to their families). That requires agreements with other countries and I believe the Austrian Presidency are supportive of a new EU Directive to that effect. Apparently we have 1000 more EU citizens in our jails than there are UK citizens in other EU Member State jails ( my source is Charles Clarke). We should also be negotiating agreements with countries like Jamaica and some SE Asian countries since we have a significant number of drug mules ( particularly females) from these parts of the world serving lengthy sentences in our jails adding both to cost and overcrowding.
If that’s what Nick Clegg said he was absolutely right.
47. Totally agree. It’s about time they reduced the age to 18 in any case. If people think a candidate is too young I suggest they don’t vote for them. Let democracy decide.
OT. Italian Senate update (for Blue Moon and Anna):
3th round result:
Marini 165 votes
Andreotti 156 votes
Not voted ballots 1
Marini has been elected speaker of the Senate (with more votes than the pledges he had)
Very weird. I think we give a ridiculous spectacle. Almost indecent
64 - Andrea, when is Prodi likely to become official PM? Is Ciampi still planning not to appoint anyone before he retires?
64 Andrea, politics in Italy is so colourful and unpredictable… maybe it explains why you have such high turn outs for elections…
Una brutta figura?
Good news anyway - I´m pleased that Marini has won.
65. Book Value. Not sure. I’ll update you if some info will emerge in the next few hours
66/67. Anna/Peter. yes. Yesterday it was a mess. People writing down different names. There’re theories that those people wanted to be recognized and showing their vote is essential (so wanting more power). Yesterday sitting finished at 3 AM. There was almost a physical fight at some point. The 6 senators who acted as secretaries for the vote weren’t able to reach an agreement. The 4 of the CL wanted to consider the votes for Francesco Marini valid (a mistake IMO, they were clearly spoilt votes IMO). The “Baby of the House” (a communist from Emilia) probably has no more voice now: he had to read all the MPs names when they were called to vote…and they had 4 rounds of votes!
68- Ah, Life Senator Rita Levi Montalcini is 97 years old….I was afraid she could have died before the final vote!!!!!
68 Do they always pick on the youngest to read out the names?
I heard Nick Glegg on radio sounding like Blair when he was shadow home secretaty.
New Lib Dem at last, more authoritaian, might get more working class Labour votes, and tory votes.
Do`nt know how pleased the Liberals will be.
70. Just in the first sitting of the Senate. The senators who are elected as “secretaries” of the senate should do it, but in the first sitting no-one is elected yet. So the oldest member should act as speaker (and Scalfaro was heavily criticized by the CR) and the 6 youngest senators act as secretaries.
here’s the video of the declaration of the result:
http://mediacenter.corriere.it/MediaCenter/action/player?uuid=61e533ba-d780-11da-b685-0003ba99c667
What Cameron Didn’t Want You To See
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-13521396,00.html
55
I dread to think what Mark Oaten would have said,as on the issue of illegal asylum seekeers / immigrants his solution was to give them an amnesty,clearly rewarding law breaking.
So I guess using Oaten’s logic / brand of liberalism these foreign criminals would have also been offered an amnesty,which begs the question of why not extend the amnesty to other criminals and therefore at the same time solve the prison overcrowding problem.
Afterall Oaten is on record as saying that prison doesn’t work.
Its the first time i’ve heard Clegg speak on an issue,for some reason he doesn’t seem to get any media time or maybe he doesn’t like the media.But on this issue talks a lot of sense.
29: Waiting by the phone this weekend? No. I’ve been an MP for 9 years and have no expectations! No complaints either - we can’t all be chiefs and being an MP is privilege enough. I’ll be helping out in Amber Valley, where the BNP are waving their tentacles.
51 re reshuffle size/desirability: it’s an issue I’d rather not comment on, sorry - “MP calls for reshuffle” and “MP slams reshuffle rumours” are both boring stories I can do without. I’ve no doubt we’ll get one sooner or later anyway, if only to restore governance to the Duchy of Lancester.
20-year-old candidate: yes, I think it ought to be legal (and a few young councillors would be great) and IIRC we are in fact proposing to make it legal (equalising minimum age of voting with age of candidacy). In fact personally I think the electorate should be free to elect anyone they like to the local council - why should we restrict their freedom to choose? But it’s not legal at the moment so you can’t really blame the other parties for pointing out that they’ve put up someone who isn’t eligible, though it’s obviously a cock-up and not an outrage.
> In fact personally I think the electorate should be free to
> elect anyone they like to the local council - why should we
> restrict their freedom to choose?
75/76 Sorry, lost a bit of this message
I was agreeing but with the reservation that some facts about certain individual candidates should be officially published, eg
(a) Not EU citizen;
(b) Aged less than (say) 16;
(c) In prison;
(d) MHA sectioned;
(e) Bankrupt or equivalent.
(This version abbreviated.)
77.”(a) Not EU citizen;”
why? I suppose you’re talking about people already living in the area where the election is contested, so why do you think EU citizens should be eligible to be elected, while, let’s say, a South America one not?
Martyn’s point about (a) is that EU citizens are entitled to vote and (I think) stand already, whereas non-EU ones are not, so if we were going to allow new and unusual possibilities then it could be reasonable to make it clear (though I think one could safely leave it to the other candidates). That said, I should add that this is all merely a personal opinion - no such change is going to happen.
79. are we talking about local elections, right? Or could they vote for Westminster too?
Personally I think Nick Clegg is the best thing to happen to the LDs for a very long time. Yes he isn’t a drivel-talking wet and he isn’t going to say things to bury us at election time.
He seems to have remembered that liberal freedoms apply to the law abiding majority ahead of those who abuse them.
He also opposes “Huntley votes” apparently.
I would deport everyone who is not a citizen who is sent to prison - I suspect this is what happens in many other countries.
81: what is “Huntley votes” ?
82 - Votes for murders, and other convicts as championed by our Lib Dem friends at the last General election, I presume.
Huntley votes are a really marvellous invention of the the Liberal Democrat policy machine in order to reduce the number of Liberal Democrat votes whilst having no effect whatever on anything else.
Basically you give the vote to all prisoners - they won’t use them of course - but your opponents certainly will to bash you around the head with.
AHM - Fair to say the fact that it was an LD policy was championed more by our Labour friends who know a good idea when they see one!
83: Thanks.
84, 85 - Yes, Jon. We Tories were very grateful for that wonderful idea of yours as well!
87. AHM, How do you think the tories will perform in the local elections on Thursday?
11 If you or anyone else has any actual evidence relating to postal vote fraud in Tower Hamlets I would strongly suggest you contact either Tower Hamlets Borough Council Electoral Services or the police so that they can investigate it properly.
I understand that the police are already investigating some issues that Council officers brought to their attention although I, as legal agent for the Lib Dems, have not been contacted by them.
All Liberal Democrats candidates have been given very clear guidance about what they should and should not do in relation to postal votes in line with the Code of Practice.
I think it is unfortunate that Respect have seen fit to distribute leaflets reporting thet the Lib Dems have been ‘accused of involvement in postal vote fraud’ when the only people who have accused us is … er … Respect.
88 - Chris. My guess is that we will poll very strongly in London, possibly winning control of 5-6 additional boroughs but that progress outside of the capital (and particularly in the North) will be slower. Share of the vote probably somewhere around 38%. In short, I think we’ll do well, but not spectacularly well. But, the press are likely to focus on results in London, where our prospects are best and that will certainly work to our advantage.
66.”politics in Italy is so colourful”
A senator during yesterday’s night session:
http://www.repubblica.it/2003/e/gallerie/politica/la-giornata-al-senato/ansa80397202904105315_big.jpg
84 The policy of votes for prisoners is backed by such well-known Lib Dems as Douglas Hurd.
O/T - Berlusconi says he will resign on Tuesday, according to scrolling headline at BBC News website ..
93. A meeting of the government has been scheduled for Tuesday. So it’s likely it’ll be the last one before the resignation.
Consultations of the parliamentary groups for the creation of the new government are likely to start from Thursday.
92 Oddly Hurd didn’t manage to get it into the Tory manifesto.
It is backed by a number of Labourites as well (this was essentially the defence Cowley Street came up with during the campaign) but unfortunately opposed by the overwhelming majority of people who are aren’t really that political.
Quite a number of whom found it utterly repellent… a good spot by the new Labour machine I have to admit.
90. Thanks AHM.
95. yes, some Labourites backed it, for ex Baroness Kennedy. Some Labour MPs signed Oaten’s EDM about it too:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=25469&SESSION=682
Then there’s at least one Libdem against it: John Pugh signed Davis’ EDM against allowing prisoners to vote
97 - Most welcome. What are you thoughts on it?
AHM, can you be more concrete as to what you mean by “slower” outside London?
re 81 Jon. I left active politics in Bedford some years ago when the Lib Dem council group of which I was a part voted to deny a senior council officer his rights to natural justice in a high profile employment case. The concept of due process, which I would have thought was precious to liberals, was cast aside by my colleagues for the sake of political expediency.
A Lib Dem party that acts and speaks in an illiberal way is one I would find hard to be associated with.
Mike Smithson
The votes for prisoners thing is interesting. I was listening to a similar discussion in the US about whether felons should be disenfranchised for life, and the arguments are very parallel, just taken to a further degree.
If you don’t believe that criminals should permanently lose the vote, it is difficult to argue that they should be deprived of it whilst in prison.
*apologises for using the phrase ‘very parallel’*
Hungover.
100 - Chrisco. By ’slower’ I mean we are likely to see progress, but on a smaller scale than will occur in London. Ask me on Friday and I’ll be even more specific.
I didn’t hear Any Questions Mike. What was it that Clegg said that offended you so?
Its cross party David Winnick and Peter Bottomley supported it.
Regarding Mikes point re “served sentence etc”, in the past those who had been recommended for deporation were normally moved to a detention centre on or just before their release date, and the deportation process continued from there.
It,s not about prison overcrowding or being liberal or il-liberal, its about managing the system designed by Parliament and ensuring that that system is followed. In this case it manifestly appears that it was not.
What did Clegg say?
I don’t see how that is relevant. It isn’t one of the fundamental tenets of liberalism that foreign people who commit crime should be allowed to come to Britain, nor that they should not be required to leave.
They have already been through a due process, namely being convicted by a jury and sent to prison. That is quite enough for me.
I don’t believe prisoners should lose the vote permanently, but while they are serving a sentence, whether that be in prison or on parole. A crime has consequences. But once the sentence is served, that’s the end of it, or should be. I am a Tory.
I agree with Jon of course that any foreign national who abuses the hospitality of this nation by committing a serious crime must immediately be deported at the end of his/her sentence. Surely every country in the world would say the same, wouldn’t they?
Do you disagree with that, Mike?
I normally try to be the first to jump on Lib Dems being illiberal, but I thought Clegg was OK on Any Questions - simplistic maybe, but not illiberal. I certainly don’t agree with Mike that Oaten would have been better.
I missed the show. Did Clegg say something beyond that violent foreign criminal should be deported at the end of their sentences, or does Mike object to that?
Those pigs who slaughtered Mary Ann should not be allowed to vote. Surely the LibDems must see what a wretched policy that was and drop it as soon as possible. Does any LD on PB.com support that policy?
[101] Mike Smithson wrote The concept of due process, which I would have thought was precious to liberals, was cast aside by my colleagues for the sake of political expediency.
Well is anyone on here at all surprised that a local authority of any colour or none would behave in that way? I imagine that there isn’t a Peebie who has been a local councillor (in a majority Group) of any colour who doesn’t recollect something similar in their own experience. Success in politics at any level always involves getting someone else to carry the can for your mistakes - the process itself rewards dishonesty.
The sentence is served, but the deportation process is another aspect entirely. It is seperate and distinct.
I am critical of the asylum and deportation sentence but that is only an opinion. There is a system which has to be followed, it has been passed by Parliament. We may not like it but that is by the way. That is what went wrong, it was not followed. There really is not an option.
If we want to change the system fine, but we have to live with and deal with the reality.
112 Yes I support the policy that being in prison should not deprive someone of their vote - though I don’t deny that lots of people don’t agree.
I support it as well, though recognise that it’s probably not a vote-winner.
Commentator - btw, for life, or just for the duration of their sentence?
114. “The sentence is served”… Not quite.
SPrisoners being let out early are released on licence, and can be taken back into custody more easily if necessary (for some meaning of ‘if necessary’). It is a reasonable argument that, under certain circumstances, foreign nationals should be deported rather than be released on licence.
Reshuffle? Who is he gonna reshuffle where?
John Prescott can go to… oops no he’s been caught boffing the help. With more revelations to come, apparently.
What about Tessa Jowell to go to… ah, no, horribly involved in Berlusconi-gate, signed mortgage papers for husband without looking.
Charles Clarke could stay… no he couldn’t. He’s may be ‘the best person for the job’ (jeepers, Nick, how far does your loyalty stretch?) but he’s manifestly failed in a key task and will surely quit next week.
Anyway. Onwards and sideways.
John Reid can… ach, no, police just found drugs in his house.
Pat Hewitt could maybe.. uhm, er, nope. Slow handclapped and ridiculed, widely hated by people she has recently overpaid, quite an achievement.
David Milliband is surely… no he isn’t. Recently linked to cash-for-peerages affair.
Peter Hain is a safe pair of hands…. but hold on, isn’t he now being linked to the Peter Law scandal?
Margaret Beckett! Yes, good old Margaret ‘caravan’ Beckett. If anyone can… er…. uhm…. doesn’t she use the Queen’s Flight to nip to the shops for her doilies?
Hm.. Gulp.
Ruth Kelly?
Nah. Claimed seven billion pounds in expenses for hoovering her bedsit in Walsall.
And so on, and so forth. I agree with people like NickP - and Tony Blair - that Labour isn’t QUITE imploding on a Major like scale. But when you step back, it is remarkable just how shopworn and corrupt so many of them are. This is surely the most tarnished and fungal government, APART from Major’s, in living memory.
But then again this government has been in power longer than any other, apart from Major/Thatcher. I suspect such decline and decay is simply a corollary of how long you are in office. Ergo: Labour has been in office too long; things can only get worse.
[119] In the first term you don’t know what you’re doing, but at least you can blame your predecessors; by the third term you’re exhausted - so democracy is a system that produces effective government at best one-third of the time, if that… I’ll buy that - and we all do, with our taxes…
Pedantic I know but the Tory government 1951 - 1964 lasted longer than this one. But they had the Profumo affair so probably not a great example.
I agree with you on the whole Sean, but ‘the Peter Laws scandal’?
Come on - offering a seat in the Lords to someone if they step down/stand aside is a well-entrenched British tradition.
119. I doubt the majority of British people recall all these “scandals” (Miliband, Kelly, Beckett and Hain). Ah, I almost forgot about the existence of Tessa Jowell!
Chrisco,
I find the comment:
“If you don’t believe that criminals should permanently lose the vote, it is difficult to argue that they should be deprived of it whilst in prison.” arguable. For example, substitue the phrase “their liberty” for “lose the vote” in that sentence, and you have a phrase that’s very difficult to support.
If it is taken as axiomatic that convicted criminals should temporarily (for the duration of their sentence only) lose some fundamental rights, such as freedom of movement and freedom to follow their own schedules, or freedom to act as they see fit (within the boundaries of the law), or freedom to spend their money as they see fit - but that after their sentence these rights are restored to them in full - then I find it quite easy to argue that they should temporarily lose the right to choose the Government and Legislature without finding it awkward that I don’t support such a permanent loss.
Typical - typo above. For “their liberty” read “lose their liberty”
Picking up on CEM´s point at 73…
“What Cameron Didn’t Want You To See
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-13521396,00.html
by cem ”
It is surely very surprising that, at a time when Labour is staggering from one news crisis to the next, that the Leader of the Tory Party should show hmself so inept, and that his political ineptitude and loss of temper should become a leading story. Why is he rescuing Labour in this way? I thought that public relations were supposed to be his strong point.
And if he is indeed trying to create a new image for his Tories, surely he must have some idea about what there was about their old image that he wanted to change. Could it be - as some have long suspected - that he sees nothing wrong with the old nasty Tory Party, except for its packaging.
The fact is surely that Cameron is just a media creation from beginning to end, and now he is starting to be exposed for what he really is.
The argument was that if you wish to reintegrate criminals into society and foster a sense of civic duty and responsibility you let them vote. That is equally applicable to those serving their sentences and released felons.
99.I hope that things go well in London but I think that there needs to be progress made in area’s where the tories have become extinct in recent times.
I wonder in how many European countries prisoners aren’t actually allowed to vote?
26 - The message of Cameron being annoyed made it clear that he thinks the old tory party had major failings. You seem to have misread it, that’s why he avoided the question. You could suggest that it was on purpose as, again, it suggests he wants a break with the past.
Nobody in their right mind would think this more important to talk about than Clarke/Prescott/Hewitt/Jowell/Hain/Reid et al. Well, labour supporters maybe? ;-).
Chrisco,
I didn’t have visibility of that argument. I did read your statement as being more generalised - if that was not your intention, I apologise for misreading it.
As to the aim of fostering a sense of civic duty and responsibility by granting convicts the right to vote, I’d say that there are many possible ways of trying to foster such a sense in convicts. There are arguments one could use (admittedly taking it to reductio ad absurdum) that the message of trust given by giving them their freedom of movement would do even more on that aim - but it’s one that no-one would defend (I’m not building a strawman here and claiming that it’s your position, by the way - I’m deliberately going to the extreme to make a point).
Basically, there are a lot of arguments here, but I’d say that it is perfectly possible to argue for temporary suspension of almost any right whilst convicted without being inconsistent when supporting regranting those rights on release - that’s my argument here.
There is something about the Reid story that does not add up to me. What do other people think?.
130. “Nobody in their right mind would think this more important to talk about than Clarke/Prescott/Hewitt/Jowell/Hain/Reid et al. ”
I suppose people could talk about what they prefer to talk about without asking your permission or being labelled as crazy.
Personally I prefer to talk about it than talking about something that involves Prescott and sex in the same sentence. It could produce disturbing pictures.
132
The leaking of the story might be an attempt to prevent him replacing Clarke at the Home Office.
133 - I did suggest that they might otherwise be labour supporters eager to find something to deflect attention. Then they wouldn’t be crazy, just desperate!
130 - And people with a pathological hatred for the Conservative Party, like John13. It’s all very tiresome, really.
132,
That you are not wanting it to add up.
32. Anna. You’re right. I’ve just posted a piece about this on my blog. http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com
And this has just appeared on PA…
PUBLIC SWINGS AGAINST PRESCOTT AFTER AFFAIR REVELATIONS
By Joe Churcher, PA Political Correspondent
Public opinion appeared to have swung against John Prescott today, according to a new poll which showed nearly half of voters thought he should be sacked over his affair with a secretary.
The public is even more keen for the other ministers facing serious flak this week - Charles Clarke and Patricia Hewitt - to pay with their jobs. Over half (57%) of those surveyed by YouGov for the Sunday Times in the immediate wake of Labour’s “Black Wednesday” said the party was “sleazy and incompetent”.
And Prime Minister Tony Blair’s personal rating has slipped to its lowest level since he took over as its leader, with 64% saying he was doing badly and just 33% that he was doing well.
On the eve of fresh revelations of Mr Prescott’s infidelity 48% say Mr Blair should sack him, including nearly a quarter of Labour
supporters, while 31% think he should be kept on. Earlier polls had suggested he had the public’s backing to stay. However, some of that desire to see him quit could reflect opinions of his political abilities, with 52% agreeing he was “a buffoon who
should never have made it to high office“. Just 9% thought he had done a good job as deputy PM. Even more people want to see the Home Secretary sacked over the release of foreign prisoners - 53% backing him for the axe and 21% wanting him to stay in post.
A huge majority - 89% - said the issue showed “alarming
incompetence” with 72% dubbing the Government’s overall performance on crime and immigration “generally incompetent“.
Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt - who was forced to abandon a
speech to nurses because of the volume of heckling and booing - is
wanted out by 51% of voters, and supported by 19%. That reflects distrust of her claim the NHS had had its best ever year - 72% saying she was wrong to say that and only 7% agreeing. More than twice as many people (62%) believe the NHS is doing badly as doing well (30%). The poll also revealed signs that smaller parties may do well in Thursday’s general election. All three main parties ratings are down on the last poll in March -
Labour and the Tories each dropping three points to 32% and 35% and the Liberal Democrats down one at 18%. “Others” were up from 8% to 15%.
126.After a very bad week in the news for Labour the comments made by the journalist at the end of the article were interesting.
138. ‘Others’ up from 8 to 15%?? Is that the Nats and the BNP? How much of it is the BNP? Alarming.
I think we will see a serious localised surge for the far Right next week. The Mary Lou Lenaghan case (where all the torturers/murderers were from ethnic minorities, and one was a failed Kosovan asylum seeker) can’t have helped.
Likewise the news that we have 10,000 foreign prisoners in our jails. The BNP must be loving it.
137: No Dez, First of all the amount seems to small to me.
Do you really believe it has been there twenty years, and How come
they didn’t find it before.
If they had found drug in my house would I have got off.
140. The last Yougov poll for the Telegraph had BNP/UKIP/Greens/Nats/Others already at 15%
My bad. Mary ANN LenEghan. RIP.
YouGov’s result of Con 35, Lab 32, Lib Dem 18 fed into Martin Baxter’s calculator produces the following result: Con 271 seats, Lab 306 seats, Lib Dem 36 seats. Labour 18 short of an overall majority.
141,
85p worth of pot in a guest room , yes you would have.
No possesion.
We have a very liberal attitude to pot now in the conservative party, and other substances.
145: Would it survive twenty years?
Re the Leneghan case, I do wonder what the media reaction would have been if six WHITE boys had tortured, raped, scalded, burned, abused, stabbed, and finally executed in cold blood two BLACK girls. I think a racist element might have been perceived. Yet in this case the murderers’ ethnicity was concealed until the sentence, and no direct comment made on it.
I can see why people are tempted to vote for the BNP. I don’t think they should - the BNP are a bunch of brutes and fools - and shouldn’t even get a protest vote. But I can see why a lot of people are swayed that way.
Sorry to go OT! Just back from States and catching up with the news…
BLAIR REFUSES TO RULE OUT SACKING CLARKE
By Joe Churcher, PA Political Correspondent
Prime Minister Tony Blair said there were “no excuses” for the
mistaken release of hundreds of foreign prisoners tonight - and
refused to guarantee Charles Clarke would survive the fall-out.
He told the News of the World that the future of the Home Secretary “depends on what happens” as efforts continue to track down the criminals and trace any reoffending.
145 - Including taking Class A drugs in your youth ?
141/45. isn’t it a common thing to clean the guest room in Reid’s house? If the pot has been there for 20 years and nobody found it, it could mean they haven’t carefully cleaned that room for 20 years! Not very hygienic!
Re (047), suggesting it is puerile of the other parties to object to a 20 year old standing for council. you completely miss the point.
If he/she tops the poll, he/she cannot be a councillor as he/she has to be 21 to do so. It’s like me asking to be selected for France at football. I am not French, so I don’t qualify !
Nick
124 - Must admit asking cameron to explain what he feels is wrong with the current conservative party seems a totally reasonable question to me. If he can’t hack the pressure, he’s going to get found out, maybe he already has.
138 Poll…Hewitt and sackings - I’ll say this rhetoricaly, and she might not be my favourite member of the cabinet, but since when has being booed by the RCN (best payed nurses in Europe who don’t know which side their bread is buttered) been a sackable offence? “Blame” for the current situation should rest with Blair/Milburn/Reid. Although Hewitt’s tone is rather unfortunate to say the least.
149: You don’t find it strange then? I don’t care who smokes what. I just find it odd
153,
You must be into conspiracy theories, sound like you don`t believe the police.
If you have any evidence, to the contary, please present.
153: I don’t know enough about cannabis to know if a tiny amount like that would survive for so long. It just seems odd thats all.
This boring prisoners thing: prisoners should not have the vote taken away automatically. Personally I don’t think rapers and murderers should be entitled to vote - but I am not sure that every prisoner should be stripped of her civil rights.
I strongly believe that Archer should have his peerage reallocated to AHM however.
156. “I strongly believe that Archer should have his peerage reallocated to AHM however”
I want Shirley Porter DBE reallocated to AHM: Dame Alistair Matlock…ok, maybe not
Good evening!
I’m very interested in the polls over this weekend. Particularly how Brown is doing in public opinion, especially as he has been so notably absent. When the going gets tough…
152 - I think she will be moved rather than sacked. Does anyone know how many of these 1023 were let loose when David Blunkett was Home Secretary?
89-Abingdon Neil
‘I understand that the police are already investigating some issues that Council officers brought to their attention although I, as legal agent for the Lib Dems, have not been contacted by them.
All Liberal Democrats candidates have been given very clear guidance about what they should and should not do in relation to postal votes in line with the Code of Practice.
I think it is unfortunate that Respect have seen fit to distribute leaflets reporting thet the Lib Dems have been ‘accused of involvement in postal vote fraud’ when the only people who have accused us is … er … Respect.’
I suggest you get a copy of Thursday’s Evening Standard,where there is a fairly extensive article of what appears to be widespread abuse.
One of many examples given in the article is in Limehouse ward where as many as 400 voters may be affected
The Town hall had apparently received requests to issue 18,716 postal votes,an increase of 7,000 on the general election,became suspicious and called in the police.
Quote from the article:
‘The Standard has established that there are at least six other ‘front addresses’ in Tower Hamlets to which large numbers of postal ballots have been sent.One of these addresses is connected with the Liberal Democrats.’
156 - Thanks for that vote of confidence Peter
157 -
:shock: You behave yourself Andrea!!
130, 135 - I don’t see any reason why we couldn’t discuss both the failings of Cameron and Clarke/Prescott/Hewitt/Jowell/Hain/Reid et al. There’s nothing I would like more than the voters seeing that neither the Labour nor the Tories are viable options to govern.
O/T seanT - with the MoS having signed up PrezzaR