YouGov gives Cameron’s Tories a 3% lead (UPDATED)
April 29th, 2006
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Lib Dems only up 1% and Blair’s ratings the worst ever
A new YouGov poll tonight has with comparisons on the last survey from the same pollster nine days ago CON 35 (+2): LAB 32 (-3): LD 18 (+1). Amongst a large “others” total the BNP is at 6% - down one. UKIP and the Greens are on 3% each.
The declining Labour share is perhaps not surprising given the traumatic events of the week but the big surprise, surely, is that the internet pollster does not seem to have picked up the big Lib Dem increases seen in the recent ICM and MORI surveys.
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Something is wrong somewhere when within the space of a few days YouGov is showing a Lib Dem figure which is just three-quarters of that found by ICM.
The explanation lies with the weightings the two pollsters use. YouGov seeks to create a sample where 13.9% of respondents have previously identified themselves as party supporters. ICM are currently working on a past vote recall proportion of about 21% for the party. Other findings in the poll include:-
So in spite of all the troubles those surveyed were divided equally on whether Brown should replace Blair now. David Cameron maintains a healthy approval rating margin of 20%. Interestingly even Labour voters in the survey do not give the Tory leader a negative rating dividing 41-41.
What must be worrying for the Gordon Brown camp is the decline in support for the Chancellor. Those surveyed were divided equally on whether there should be an immediate change-over with Labour supporters supporting Blair by 61-28. Brown’s “doing well/badly” positive margin of 4% compares with the 43% that he had exactly a year ago - a dramatic fall.
If the Brown figures are reinforced by other pollsters it might just take the pressure off Blair should Thursday’s local election results be bad for Labour.
The price on Tony Blair still being there at the end of next year is 2.85/1. This and other political markets including Thursday’s local elections can be found here.
Mike Smithson
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Oooh, the first time I’ve ever come first on a thread. I hope! (better hurry up).
Can someone tell me how the Prescott affair was first revealed? Did the woman go to the press? Did someone else snitch? Were they spotted together by a paper? What happened (sorry I’ve been away)?
Not sure I buy Lib Dems on 18%! Think we might do slightly better than that on Thursday…
Am personally pleased to see labour going down, because despite all the problems NuLab have suffered, they have always looked like staying ahead of the rest…is that turning now?
And finally, someone’s really got it in for Patricia Hewitt-51% wanting her out and 19% saying she should go? Was the question written by David Cameron?
1: Her boyfriend sold his story to the daily Mirror. She was talking about Prescott in her sleep.
3 - I feel extremely sorry for her boyfriend, can’t do much for your self esteem.
A guy from the NOTW was talking about some of the allegations she makes in the MoS (he’d seen it in advance) it sounds pretty awful and apparently has details of his behaviour going back 20 years - not sure I heard that right though.
4. Max, I think we should try to understand him. If your girlfriend is cheating you with a super hunky man, you could understand….but if she’s cheating you with Prescott?!!!!
5 - I would never forgive her - unless she cheated on me with Vladimir Romanov - in which case I would take it as a compliment from our glorious leader.
And I hope your post isn’t suggesting that I’m not a super hunky man myself!!!!!
Everyone - thankyou. How vastly more entertaining than I expected! Her boyfriend caught her saying ‘two jags, two jags’ in her sleep???
Priceless. As you say, poor bloke, to be cuckolded by Prescott. Ouch.
As a journo I’ve been hearing rumours about Two Bonks for years. I have nothing personal against the man - he seems human, unlike so many Blairites - even if he does have a chippy, lunatic and visceral hatred of the Tories. What it does to man to not get a bike for your eleven plus results…
But it is richly enjoyable, to see Labour caught out on sleaze after all their dreadful, pious, holier-than-thou pronouncements during the Major years.
6. do you think you could replace my favourite hunky tory at the top of my preferences?
7. It was almost comical.
what other polls are we expecting for tonight?
“The Patricia Hewitt figures are 51% wanting her out with 19% saying she should go.”
So that’s nobody wanting her to stay at all? What a sensible electorate we must be having these days!
I have been out canvassing all day - I am finding that the Lib Dem vote is soft and many are coming back to the conservatives . Labour voters do not seem at all keen on switching to the Lib dems - In this area the labour vote has already been squeeezed - those that are left are quite ideological
- this poll fits much more closely with what is happening in my part of South West London
6 - You mean this one?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/05/uk_politics_tories_rate_leadership_contenders/img/1.jpg
I’m afraid I can’t compete.
7 - It’s a particularly difficult issue for Prescott as he was openly critical of the conduct of Tory MP’s. I’m sure some of them would share your sentiments.
Did anyone see the BBC news just now? Crikey. How bad can it get? Not looking good for either of the ministers. Prescott had sex with his bit of fluff while his wife was downstairs. He also tupped her in his office. Tory sleaze, anyone? Two jags will surely go. And the news on Clarke ain’t at all good either. Blair backing off.
Andrea - when was the last time two ministers resigned in the same week? Can we get odds on this?! What larks.
“He also tupped her in his office.”
Should he perhaps have been paying Council Tax there, too?
Sean T, Good luck with the book launch, although it looks like you don’t need it. I really like the sound of what you’ve written. The concept and the title looks like a winner and people say its funny too.
The next few days must be a highlight of your life. Good thing I’m not the jealous kind (still working on a few children’s novels!) Funny to think Prescott’s affair could help you by selling more Mail on Sundays! I will look out for your book.
10 Thanks Zebidee. Changed.
Mike Smithson
16. It was the always nice tpfkar who first noticed it at 2.
Please, please Nick P. Tell us what a great guy two (or is iy three)shags. How is an outstanding and able Minister and hwo all you backbenchers hang on to every word. then let us have a precis of the ability and skills of Clarke and Hewitt.
What a collection of useless utter sleazeballs.
Thanks Printz. Good luck with the children’s novels, likewise. That’s where the money is!
Andrea
I see that Berlusconi (thankfully and finally) has resigned. 2 questions;
what do you realistically think of his political future (and so Forza Italia) ? and;
what would Italians make of the sex (Prescott), drugs (Reid) and incompetence (Clarke) scandals if played out in their own politics ?
Thanks
20. PJ. He’s expected to resing on Tuesday. He’ll stay in politics, at least for a while. Then it depends on how long the new government will last. If it won’t last long and we’ll back to vote next year, he’ll probably still be there fighting another election IMO.
We don’t usually have scandals. We don’t have tabloid press and the rest of the press is not very keen to out MPs with something to hide.
Regarding UK developments. Prezza was covered by newspapers here too. Usually with a full review of past British sex scandals: Profumo, Major and Edwina and Mark Oaten all mentioned.
Clarke’s problems got an article too. No mentions of Hewitt.
From what little I saw on the Sky News flick-through of the Mail on Sunday, this is little more than a re-heating of a story with no legs.
It’ll take more than “John Prescott a bit of a laughing stock” for him to resign (otherwise he’d have been gone long ago).
22. what happened to your link?! Where’re the photos?
22 BBC has a rather damaging take on the affair…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4958810.stm
“Prescott affair ‘exploited power’
Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott “exploited power for his own sexual gratification”, the diary secretary he had an affair with has said.”
23 - safe and sound at http://www.stephentall.org.uk
(The blog is where I’m a bit more discursive. It was originally set up as a discreet webspace which my mum wouldn’t read, and so I could swear a bit. But she found it anyway.)
Blunkett - gone; Jowelll - the italian connection; Blair - wife’s haircuts, loans for peerages and peerages for academy funding; Prescott - overage sex; Jack Straw - CIA flights; Charles Clarke - setting free foreign criminals; Geoff Hoon - dodgy dossiers; Reid - drugs; Kelly - 99 list; Beckett - paying farmers late; Hewitt - nurses.
Where are the Others?
Looks like 15% to me!!! Is that another high BNP poll?
25 Stephen Tall: Do all LD Focus leaflets in Oxford have that bar-chart on them?
http://www.stephentall.org.uk/news/294.html?PHPSESSID=4ded98b0c318dc61d98efcb6677f322e
Btw, Andrea - have you voted in my ‘Most impressive new Lib Dem MP poll’ at http://www.stephentall.org.uk? (And, if you have, why is Jeremy Browne still on 0%? ;-))
Thanks Andrea (again).
Just one (or two/three) further questions is there a future for Forza Italia post Berlusconi ?
Where goes the right/centre right post Berlusconi (if he goes) ?
What is the legacy of Berlusconi for Italy ?
Very much appreciate your responses.
28 - yeah, compulsory. (Though that one’s my own handiwork… the others you’ve seen are Abingdon Neil’s.)
But I stuck to the trusty ‘two-horse race’, rather than risking ‘it’s a straight choice’…
29. Stephen, I duly made my job and voted for Jeremy Browne!
Surely the reason Prescott has to go is not that he was having an affair - at least not just that, though the use of the office for his bonking ain’t great - but that he was one of the cheerleaders when it came to denouncing Tory sleaze. He who lives by the sword dies by it…?
Oh, I forgot. This is New Labour. We’re not talking men of honour, we’re talking men who will do anything to hang on to power, no matter how repellent, grasping or absurd they appear in the public eye.
There seems to have been a Clegg surge - wasn’t Featherstone leading before?
32 - thanks! Which leaves John Hemming (currently) as the Norway ‘nul points’ of the contest…
34 Ignore!
34 - she still is, isn’t she? (Clegg did put on a brief spurt yesterday - doubtless the result of his excellent Any Questions performance… even if it did, slightly bizarrely, put our host’s liberal nose out of joint.)
33. “but that he was one of the cheerleaders when it came to denouncing Tory sleaze.”
who cares? it’s enough to despise him, not not ask for his resignation. You should ask for his resignation: a) he has done something wrong in the execution of his job b) he has one something illegal c) he’s incompetent in doing his job d) add something else and then I’ll say if I agree with you
30. PJ. They’re interesting questions. Forza Italia is his creation and it’s not a sure thing if he could survive without him and his appeal. What will happen to the political spectrum when he goes, it’s a question mark IMO. It’s difficult to answer it, because it could stay like it’s now with 2 main coalitions or have a complete realignment
31 After all the appreciation you have had of the Beech Road photos, I’m surprised they didn’t make it on…
39 - Anna, I’m not up for re-election… so my ward colleague takes precedence. (His own Beech Rd photo did make it on the first Focus of the campaign.)
40. have you showed the beach rd photo to the young lady quoted in your blog?
And it’s just because you have not canvassed me….
Andrea- grazie tanti. Be interesting to see the events in Italy over the coming months (at least I made a reasonable amount to bet again if need be).
38. No, I think rank hypocrisy is enough to provoke a resignation, when taken with the general seediness of bonking your secretary in your office while civil servants are close at hand…
That was the Tories’ problem in the 90s, it wasn’t just that they were shaggers and liars, it was that they were shaggers and liars preaching ‘back to basics’ - a policy with moral overtones. The hypocrisy did for them.
It will do for Labour unless they start sorting themselves out - and that means resignations. Have they no shame? They were meant to be ‘purer than purer, and whiter than white’. Now look at them.
Barf.
41 Andrea - I sent Stephen’s link round to my friends. I wouldn’t want to boost his ego too much, so I shan’t report the replies… Suffice to say that next time Stephen comes to Oxford to do a talk, he’s going to get inundated with chch girls…
41 - has ‘canvassing’ become a euphemism…?
42. PJ, it was a pleasure
44. Anna, wait until I reach Oxford….
45. don’t tell me I’m embarassing you
The revelations certainly don’t seem to be as groundbreaking as we thought they might be, but they do suggest that this is going to rumble on and on, and seriously embarrass Prescott. I mean, the whole thing about having sex with his secretary whilst his wife was downstairs is incredibly distasteful. There’s also the issue about this woman being ferried about in ministerial cars. Having sex in his office suggests that it was interrupting government work. It’s not so much one big thing as lots of little things.
Will he resign? I think the ball is in his court. The revelations could simply prove too embarrassing for him to carry on in his very high-profile job. Blair won’t sack him, of course, so it’s really all down to him, and the possibility of him being investigated for breaches of the ministerial code.
47 - Andrea, as Anna has realised (44), never under-estimate my ego… after all, I’m a politician (sort of).
48 - there’s no ’smoking gun’ that I’ve so far seen, though. Blair got it right back in 2001, after the ‘Two Jabs’ incident: “John is John”. The public will view these revelations through the prism through which they normally view Prescott.
And he can always claim that car-sharing with his mistress was him doing his bit for the environment.
48 Don’t get your hopes up people; none of them will resign.
This most arrogant of administrations is now going into bunker mode; evidenced by Hewitts incredulous ‘you are so ungrateful’ act at the RCN and Clarkes bovine body language at the home office; and most tellingly of all by Blairs ‘crisis, what crisis?’ interview with Nick Robinson.
Can Blair sack prescott? I thought Deputy Leader was directly elected by the Labour party. It would be quite difficult to have a deputy leader on the back benches. As far as I can see none of the names in the frame for the “third woman” have come out so far so perhaps there will be fresh revelations next week. If this does do for him it will be the fact that it runs on and on.
generally I think this sort of thing is a private matter but if its true that he has used government cars and offices for the affair then sadly it becommes fair game.
What on earth must labour councillors and candidates be thinking?
I’d just like to say again, with reference to today’s striking developments I can’t believe that Rooney is out of the World Cup.
*Sob*
Goodnight all, and don’t forget to buy your Mail on Sunday, for so many wonderful reasons.
43 - I find his hypocrisy pretty sickening. He was happy to lay into the Tories over there behaviour and now he’s happy to act as if he’s done nothing wrong and it’s no longer a big deal.
The reason I think he’ll stay is that no one takes him seriously and there is almost something comical about him running around like a fat Sid James. A case of Carry on Minister I fear!
The longer the ministers stay in their jobs, however, the more damaging it gets for the government. Nobody accepts what they say anyway, but it’ll be even worse when coming from the mouths of adulterors and incompetants.
I think, however, that Blair’s line of “we’ll see what happens” with Clarke shows someone who’s decided to delay the decision until after the local elections.
The Government have been somewhat fortunate and us all England supporting fans somewhat unfortunate with the injury worries over Owen and Rooney which I guarantee will be what people will be focusing on tomorrow.
54 “The reason I think he’ll stay is that no one takes him seriously”
But how seriously does he take himself.
Re: 11 - As I’ve said here before, David, there are fools, damn fools and people who believe local election canvassing returns !! I was out this afternoon in an LD target in South-East London. I found the Conservative vote very soft and the LD vote stronger than I expected so I am confirmed in my belief that Thursday will throw up some strange and by no means consistent results.
This evening, for light relief, I went to Wimbledon Theatre and saw Rik Mayall reprise his role as Alan B’Stard. It’s not bad though not as good as the original tv series. Mayall seemed to be thoroughly enjoying himself and there were references to Prescott’s latest indiscretions.
The Sunday Times has a piece about a woman raped by a man who should have been deported saying Clarke must go.
And then another piece about a female Labour former aide saying Prescott was a serial groper
52. I think it’s possible for Prescott to remain Deputy Leader but without a post in the government - George Brown did this for a couple of years after resigning as Foreign Secretary. He remained Deputy Leader until he lost his seat in 1970.
About the YouGov/ICM Lib Dem discrepancy. I’d have assumed that changing the LD weightings for YouGov data would increase the LD figures in the headline poll, whilst depressing the figures for everyone else [Lab,Con,Oth]. However, the Lab/Con figures in the two polls are very similar, with the main difference being in the split of the other votes between Lib Dems and others. Does that mean anything?
I understand we are due for another poll before the weekend is out. It will be interesting to see if it produces a similar result.
Wow. Those who think Clarke and Prescott can stay must read the Sunday Times headlines - as Andrea indicates. Truly appalling for Labour - I wonder if Murdoch is going off Vlair.
Allegations that Prescott molested and sexually harrassed his staff, spent government money on his mistress, and had another mistress now in the Cabinet. As well as getting fellated in his office. Jeez Louise.
Even worse are the slurs on Clarke. It’s difficult to tell if the poor woman raped by one of the released foreign criminals was raped by a criminal released on Clarke’s watch - but how can any minister withstand that kind of blacking? ‘I was raped because of Charles Clarke, and he must go’ is basically the gist of it. Immensely damaging.
I would be truly surprised if either of these guys are in office by the end of the week. I know Labour are a bunch of careerist shysters, but they are still presumably human beings. The shame must be unbearable, even for them.
Sunday Times leader is entitled “Labour isn’t working.” Sounds vaguely familiar!
58. When can we get Alan B’Stard. back on TV.
I dont watch tv, but enjoy watching the replay in the office.
So Prescott can stay as deputy Leader, but not as a cabinet minister. So what happens to the ODPM? Presumably someone who isn’t the deputy PM has to be in charge. I foresee a massive and incredibly expensive rebranding exercise…
Late night quiz. Who said these things (easy) about whom(more diffiuclt) and when?
And why do they seem relevant today?
1 divided, desperate and dangerous. And they are up to their necks in sleaze.
2 The man responsible for the rule of law. He’s up before the judges so often, he asks for his previous offences to be taken into consideration.
3 in case you bump into him. He always get very ratty if you don’t call him Doctor. This began to puzzle me, since he’s the only doctor I’ve ever met who makes everyone feel sick.
4 We’ve got to get to the bottom of this. The publics got to be protected.
5 Can you believe that this lot is in charge? Not for long, eh?
YouGov poll - 52% say Prescott is “a buffoon who should never have made it to high office”.
Re: #66 It would only be, like, the fourth such rebranding exercise for that pseudo-department. That department only exists to provide something for Prescott to do, so if Prescott is forced out of the government, then the logical thing to do is to break the department up.
Doesn’t look good for Clarke in the Independent
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article361052.ece
Accuse him of cover-up
Interesting take on reading the runes of recent polls from Bob Worcester: http://www.epolitix.com/EN/Publications/Monitor/1138_1/071fdc87-c4ab-4c4c-b02a-2b20a21c9d97.htm
(How do I insert hyperlinks, btw?)
68. Only 52%!!!!!
Sky TV said that there are allegations of Prezza having an affair with someone who is now a cabinet minister. Is this in addition to the affair alleged on Guido’s site?
I can hardly believe that figure is as low as 52% either.
The Sundays are awful for Labour today.
This caught my eye as the bullet being put in the pistol on the velvet cushion.
But not content with this the Guardian reportsHow Nulab have gone to great lengths to co-opt sleazy behaviour.
73. But he’s been a buffoon for years and that hasn’t stopped him holding high office. Neither has being incompetent. It’s only that he’s now an embarrassment as well that his position is being questioned.
It’s almost win / win for the opposition parties with Prezza. Either he stays and this thing rumbles on for a bit with him being a laughing stock. Or he goes and causes all sorts of political problems in the Labour Party. Who replaces him (Blairite / Brownite?), New election for deputy leader etc…. Weeks and weeks of fun either way!
Another reason to suspect that the odious Identity Register will be an IT disaster (from the IoS).
“Richard Bacon, the MP whose questions exposed the scandal, brandished a copy of an internal audit carried out last November into accounts processed on the department’s new Adelphi IT system.
The report, an extract of which has been obtained by the IoS, found that, although the books balanced, when the auditors added up the figures they totalled £26 trillion.
This, the report notes dryly, is “almost 2,000 times higher than the Home Office’s gross expenditure for 2004-05 and approximately one and a half times higher than the estimated GDP of the entire planet. This suggests that something has gone seriously awry with Adelphi processing during 2004-05. We have yet to receive an explanation for what has happened.”
Torygraph reports that if Labour loses about 300 seats or finishes third in terms of votes will try to get the 70 signatures needed to open a challenge.
The Indy quotes an anonymous MP who seems confident.
Then they would go to Blair and ask for a date.
The torygraph spelled the name of Lynne Jones wrong
75 - I know. Sad commentary on the state of politics in this country, isn’t it?
78. Talk of Lynne Jones or Michael Meacher standing. Can’t see them getting the 70 they need though.
Has anyone seen Gordon Brown recently?
Anyone know where I can find a link to the Mary Ann Sieghart article Bob Worcester refers to? I can’t seem to find it.
81. Angelina Jolie saw him.
80 - But I’m pretty sure that the only way a Labour leader who is Prime Minister can be challenged is after a formal card vote at Conference. A contest cannot be triggered by MPs alone when the party is in government.
Extraordinarily bad papers for Labour. The Indy laying into Clarke and Three Bonks Prescott, the Sunday Times shafting Clarke in toto, the Observer reporting Labour sleaze and graft all over the shop - and those are the centrist or left-leaning papers!
Can’t remember a worse news day for Labour. And yes I know it’s always ‘the worst week’ - but really. Woo-hoo. Hilarious.
84. they need 70 signatures to ask for a card vote at the conference IIRC
83. I can find a link to her comments about him but not anything on the family tax credit figures released on Tuesday just before the Charles Clark prisoners story broke.
Speaking of missing persons, where has our roger been lately? His absence is keenly felt by all, I’m sure.
88. Ruth Kelly has been quiet too since his disappearance….
Is the Trevor McDonald Moment approaching? The evidence mounts of sales of honours for money:
Sir Cameron Mackintosh was offered a seat in the House of Lords in return for a loan to the Labour Party. The West End theatre owner and impresario has told friends he was approached before the last general election but turned down the offer.
AHM. The professor, GB’s oracle on PB.com seems to be missing too!
Mr Prescott said he intended to take the matter to the Press Complaints Commission.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4959164.stm
I seem to recall the head of the PCC doesn’t think that much of certain Labour ministers.
89 - and i haven’t seen the prof. around recently either… and I’ve been waiting all April for the promised guest article
91 vs 93 - doh! too late
88 - I’m missing Roger too. His insights at these ‘difficult’ would be most welcome.
91 - Chris. Gordon’s oracle on PB.C, you say? One would have thought by the way he talks that he was Gordon’s representative on Earth…
Speaking of tax credits, the Inland Revenue is now pursuing me for £3000 in overpaid credits, credits I never asked for, but they gave me anyway. I haven’t got £3000. I spent it when they gave it to me, given that I was turning over about £15000 a year. I was pretty poor. Now they are threatening to prosecute me immediately unless I immediately hand over the cash they gave me because of their mistake.
I’m not giving them a cent. To hell with them. I don’t give a fig. But maybe there are people out there less combative than me - poor self employed people (like me) who are (unlike me) getting frightened by the threat of prosecution - for the government’s own mistake!
This government is both inept and disgraceful. Shame on the Opposition Parties for not chasing them out of office.
And Gordon ‘tax credits’ Brown is as incompetent as the rest of them. What a shower.
“times” after difficult obviously
Some truth from Michael Howard today:
Mr Blair and his ministers have never taken the trouble to understand how government works. Instead of rolling up their sleeves and applying themselves to the often difficult task of bending the bureaucracy to their will, they have set up Delivery Units, Performance Units, Co-ordination Units and a host of other gimmicks that have, for the most part, just created confusion and chaos, and made things worse.
That sounds the Nulab way I had to live with for a time.
95 -
They certainly would! Not that you and I would want to kick a Labourite while he’s down though, John 
YouGov full party breakdown
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/displayPopup/0,,96848,00.html
CON 35
LAB 32
LIB 18
BNP 6
UKI 3
GRN 3
NAT 2
OTH 1
4% think Tony Blair is doing very well!
Lots more info there too
Sean T The Fabians are with you in condemning the credits system.
97. I can’t find a link to the figures released on Tuesday and as I said the story seemed to disappear when the home office debacle hit the headlines. But I think that a lot of people are in the same position. Does anyone have a link to the figures.
Roger’s absence just shows how bad things have got.
Has any party in government had such a bad week in the run up to a local election ?
That’s a fascinating breakdown Printz.
The Tories, I see, are now massively ahead as the party to deal with law and order, and asylum and immigration, they are level pegging with Labour on the NHS (!!) and education, and just six points behind on the economy. So basically the only thing Labour have left is the economy. Important, but is it enough?
For Labour to have thrown away their huge credibility lead on the NHS after spending umpteen trillion pounds on it is an unequalled achievement, I would have thought.
101 - Does that show your party at sub-1% ?
Labour MSPs can’t stand Libdems anymore
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2090-2158782,00.html
They’re accusing them of duplicity
104 - Roger’s a darling. But the shameful absence of eager Master Partridge at this time of dire need is an utter dereliction…
105 - Indeed, Sean. It will certainly set alarm bells ringing in Old Queen Street (if they haven’t sold it for solvency yet) that the Tories are 19 points ahead on Law and Order and level pegging on the NHS in particular. We’ve still got some work to do on our economic credentials, but we’re getting there.
According to The Times some LD MPs are writing a new pamphlet (Orange Book, the revenge) called “Britain after Blair”. Contributors will include Vince Cable, Nick Clegg and Mark “rent boy” Oaten (the Times called him in this way. it’s not my fault)
105 - The funniest one is 48% say of John Prescott’s affair that they weren’t surprised!
It could make the council elections next week very interesting. I know Labour were not expecting to do well in the elections but could the sheer volume of bad headlines this week make the results even worse than predicted and put real pressure on TB?
NewScotman mentioned that the rebels have just 40 names at the moment, but hoping to get more if Labour will poll badly on Thursday
The Scotman also reports rumours about Johnson and Hutton replacing Hewitt and Kelly
114. in the case of a reshuffle, obviously.
106 - Yep I’m sure that one day Respect will register 1% in an opinion poll! But then they know how to deliver deadly body blows using minimum force, just like those teenage ninja turtles.
107 Loved the line “Lib Dems warned voters that Labour would increase tolls on the Forth bridge even though the decision rested with Tavish Scott, the Lib Dem transport minister”
Reminds me of Simon Hughes’ claim to be the “straight choice” in their snide attack on Tatchell in the Bermondsey bi-election.
Interesting poll details despite some (IMHO) leading questions. To balance all these excited Tories: from the Labour viewpoint I think the figures on the NHS are the main concern - people are inclined to blame immigration staff for the deportation issue rather than Clarke, and the figures don’t suggest massive feeling against Prescott either: the number of people who think he’s quite a good minister is higher than the number of people planning to vote Labour (or indeed Tory). Note that slightly more people continue to think the Tory government was worse on sleaze than the reverse, but most people think we’re all pretty bad. Cameron’s figures are good without being great, Brown’s are OK, Campbell’s equivocal (though note that the question is about each of them in their current roles so not strictly comparable). No great pressure for a swift Blair handover, with a decisive majority against among Labour voters.
Note that the question on foreign deportation is not only leading but factually wrong - the way the system is supposed to work is that the foreign prisoners are considered for deportation, not that they’re all deported (historically around one third have been deported). Some posters here think it should be otherwise, but it’s not. Perhaps Peter Kellner could get his people to check the validity of YouGov questions (which I presume came from the newspaper) before they’re put?
107 - I don’t doubt they are sick of the Lib Dems. Very instructive for anyone who thinks a coalition with the Lib Dems in the event of a hung parliament at Westminster is really a viable option.
As a Labour supporter, I can certainly say this is bad. Awful, in fact. The question for me is, will all this put permanent dents in the govt. or, like the petrol crisis back in 2000, they can recover their position - then, the tories were 5 points ahead in the opinion polls with Labour at around 35%. Check :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2000/09/21/nblur21.xml
I think Prescot is pretty much toast - I can’t see him credibly rallying the troops at conference with the knowledge he has humiliated his wife. Not good, not good at all.
Clarke might salvage some of his reputation if it can be seen he really is making amends over this fiasco. Once hes fixed what can be fixed, then he can resign with some honour.
Harder to make sense of the Hewitt saga. I can see why it provoked anger at the nurses conference. However, I was disgusted at the immature baying from those nurses who for some reason had forgotten if it weren’t for a Labour govt. tax payer’s money would not be spent on more nurses and higher pay. I guess the govt. made an error in hiring more nurses than was needed, and so have to deal with the upset. I wondered if people had forgotten how things were before 1997?
So, yes - the shit has hit all at once. Quite bizzare to have so many scandals and controversy in the space of a week. Meanwhile, GB is off the radar virtually - probably keeping well away while TB and his allies take the flak. Sad to see that Blair may leave on a bad note, and probably sooner than he wished, when he has clearly been an important asset to the party.
Is this how govts. eventually end? No matter how much good they do, they make mistakes and the good stuff gets ignored or buried by the media with their own agenda for either kicking them out or focussing too much on the froth, so to speak. Of course, they have been in power for almost 10 years, and the shine has well and truly come off. It amazes me the tories aren’t seen, yet, as an alternative - I would have expected, by past crisis, for them to be well ahead in polls but this hasn’t translated.
120 “Is this how govts. eventually end? No matter how much good they do,”
Good? Immigration? Crime? Health? Pensions?(!) Defence? Europe?
And lets face it, the NHS cash injection was to buy votes which is why it disappeared.
While the waters creep ever higher, Blair gives £20 billion to Chirac and Brown gives £8 billion to Africa…
Labour has never been about performance, rather, the appearance of performance. Knowing how professional the Labour Image Machine is, it is tempting to think that this week has been a creation of Labour itself. Is somebody sabotaging somebody? Cutting nose to spite face?
So, if we apply the ICM weighting to the raw YouGov figures, the Lib Dem support might be somewhere around 27%?
Surely Blair must go sooner rather than later…this is just getting appaling…a new PM Brown…with a fresh, new… labour cabinet….there is no other way….all good things must come to an end…time to fall on the sword.
Cannabis at the home of John Reid - a possible future leadership contender, catastrophic mal-administration from Charles Clarke - a man who said Brown would never get the leadership, the voice of old Labour John Prescott holed below the water line - the ‘loyal left’ silenced , Ruth Kelly out of her depth imposing unpopular education policies - Blairite, Patricia Hewitt making 80 Billion investment look like spending cut - Blairite…
is Gordon Brown a genius?
Nick, honestly. Cameron’s figures good but not great? Over half saying doing well, a 20% favourable differential? Against a Tory vote leading by only 3%, and attracting just over a third?
What *would* be great?
Cameron attracts over half the voters! Give it up. Those numbers are massive. He outpolls the Tory brand comprehensively. As an ardent Cameroon I feel vindicated.
123. Are you the Professor?
If this week has confirmed anything for me about Gordon Brown it’s that he likes to duck out when the tough times come. Well that’s fine as chancellor when the economy isn’t too bad (though there are increasing problems which haven’t really hit the public radar yet), but you can’t as PM. This is when Brown should be at the PM’s side like the heavyweight he’s supposed to be, but instead he’s - well, where? He did the same disappearing trick during the Iraq debate IIRC (I know he backed the policy later, but that was when it was a done deal).
125.did you ever see the ali vs foreman rumble in the jungle? ali spent 6 rounds ducking and weaving…the damage being inflicted is from a brown point of view on nu-labour..the new brand needs to be untarnished and ‘fresh’ - why should brown risk it all for the sake of bliars legacy?
45 - don’t know about ‘canvassing’ but ‘horizontal recruitment’ was certainly a common euphamisim in my student politcal days ;-
117 - Please either provide some evidence that Hughes ever described himself as ‘the straight choice’, as opposed to Lib Dem leaflets describing the contest as ‘a straight choice’, or stop repeating the assertion.
128. which is equally bad in my opinion.
but everyone has his/her solid opinion about this matter and they want change,
question about the local election counts:
which authorities will count on Friday?
126. Only on DVD, mate. I’m too young to have seen that first time round. I do know however, that Ali was actually in the ring though.
Brown is just as much New Labour as Blair. He was there in the 80s when it was conceived; he was there in the mid 90s when it was implemented; he has been in an extremely senior position throughout the lifetime of the government. There will be nothing remotely fresh about GB when he takes over. On the contrary, when facing Cameron his most potent weapon will surely be his experience - but that again makes it impossible to distance himself from the New Labour brand.
If he cannot bring himself to defend not just Blair, but also other cabinet ministers, what sort of relationships do you think will exist within the cabinet when he takes over?
re 123. The great thing for Gordon Brown this week is that Labour’s bad news has over-shadowed the £2 billion black hole in his pet tax credit system.
This surely has been noticed by the Tories who will attack when the time is right.
Gordon has got a lot of baggage.
Mike Smithson
this accusation toward Prescott is much worse than the other sex story IMO:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2158097,00.html
131/132. I wish you were right, but Brown will be able to say (contrary to internet rumours) that he is a pretty straight sort of guy….that his NEW labour government wll bring in ethics codes, electoral reform, democracy in the Lords, end world poverty etc etc.
He has NO choice but to try and avoid the mud that this government is covered in…to use political capital defending the indefensible is barmy.
132. as for the economy….despite him i know…..Brown can ask ‘are you better off than you were 4 years ago’ and he would win….and if he asked are you better off than you were in 1997 he would win by a landslide, alas.
I agree Andrea. If the woman makes a fomal complaint of harassment and there is an enquiry, it will run and run.
OT - I see JK Galbraith has died. Good innings but sad to hear anyway. One of the more interesting post war political/economic thinkers.
The Reverend of Peter Law enters the Peerage saga saying he’s not “prepared to stand by and hear Peter called a liar”.
http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/newspolitics/tm_objectid=17008984&method=full&siteid=50082&headline=i-won-t-stand-by-and-hear-peter-called-a-liar–he-was-a-man-of-the-utmost-integrity-name_page.html
Labour has already called people to leaflet in Blaenau Gwent. They’ve the sensitivity of a pink hippo!
JK Galbraith was up there with the very best - his ideas are as relevant today as they were 70 years ago.
33,
True, it will be.
Felt the Mail have paid over the odds 250k for sex story.
The tearful lady getting all that money was a bit over done.
There wan`t any, seriously damaging office gossip regarding Brown And Blair, which The Mail would have realy wanted.
Max Clifford is very good at his job, must have seen the Mail coming.
Nick Palmer Even you must be finding the defence of the indefensible a bit of a pain.
The Yougov poll on the 21 April asked a direct comparative sleaze question and Nulab were way out front by 30% with us Tories limping in nowhere in the Sleaze stakes.
The comparative sleaze question on this poll seems to be out of step with the later questions . They match the April 21st question quite closely in seeing Labour as the sleazy party.
In this poll 58% agree the government is on its last legs, 57% think it is sleazy and incompetent. The two go together but the second is the killer. Incompetent. On the prisoner release 89% rightly say this reflects alarming incompetence.
For the long term this taint will not easily be removed, mainly because it has always been true of this government and those that can see its detailed work know that to be the case. But now it is becoming glaringly obvious to the majority who, being British, tend to give everyone the benefit of the doubt until it is simply untenable to do so any more. That time has come.
And G Brown esquire will not be happy. He cannot replace all the cabinet when he is finally allowed in the chair, and the taint will continue as it did with John Major. John Major was relatively new. The trouble for the Dour One, unlike JM, is that he has been at the top table all the time and cannot escape the blame by saying, ‘It was not me. I was not the one.’ I am sure he will try, though, and that will piss-off the Blairites no end. Result: terminal destabilisation and the end.
Wakefield will count on Friday. This is due to the large number of postal votes sent out 40,000 which need to be processed back in before the count starts. I expect its the same for most of the Mets.
130 - Good morning Andrea , http://election.press.net/constituencies_time.html gives the expected declaration times but not sure how accurate it is .
“The Yougov poll on the 21 April asked a direct comparative sleaze question and Nulab were way out front by 30% with us Tories limping in nowhere in the Sleaze stakes.”
The difference is that this poll (and other similar ones)n ask people to compare the Labour government now and the Conservative government back in the mid-90s (and people think they are roughly as bad as each other). The 21st April questions asked people to compare the Labour government now with the Conservative party *now*, and shows peopel think Labour are now worse.
As with most things, I believe it’s best to take an overview and an over view of the polls since Election 2005 a year on makes for interesting reading:
Conservatives:
Election 2005 Result 33%
Highest Point 38.1% January 2006
Lowest Point 30.0% June 2005
Mid Range: 34.1%
Labour:
Election 2005 Result 36%
Highest Point 40.0% June 2005
Lowest Point 33.3% April 2005
Mid Range 36.7%
Liberal Democrats
Election 2005 Result 23%
Highest Point 24.5% May 2005
Lowest Point 16.9% January 2006
Mid Range 20.7%
Forecast House of Commons (based on Mid Range)
Lab 354 (-2)
Con 211 (+13)
Lib Dem 50 (-12)
Others 31 (+1)
Lab maj 62
Harry,
have you compared that with the years after 1992, 1997 and 2001?
I think the most damning assessment of the government is from Andrew Rawnsley in the Guardian. It is measured and comprehensive.
They are pouring out legislation to monitor and regulate the lives of law-abiding citizens….. And yet the prison service and the immigration directorate are so spectacularly incompetent that they are incapable of tracking the release of known criminals, among them murderers, rapists and paedophiles. ……
This failure is emblematic of New Labour’s worst habits as a government. It is mad for writing new laws, but bad at ensuring that laws which exist are effectively applied and that core functions of the system work….. They have spent the past nine years complaining about the Civil Service when what they should have been doing was sorting it out….
It is nine years since Labour came to power …. the number of classes with more than 30 has risen again… a new system of farm subsidies has been messed up, an overspend on legal aid is going to lead to job losses in the court services and ministers have had to admit that new staff contracts in the health service have come in at £610m over budget.
While the government appears to be going to hell in a handcart, the saintly Gordon Brown is pictured doing missionary work for Africa.
And he is right. The Dour One does himself no favours hiding in the bush being saintly spending tax payers money in an old fashioned and ineffective way rather than innovatively and well.
43. There are lies, damn lies, and…..taking two extreme observations and calculating the simple average, then passing this off as scientific.
43 - Harry - Labours lowest point is surely 32% and the Lib Dems lowest is 13%. That would shift your midrange points down a little!
43 - Harry, very, very poor. Almost schoolboy maths, just lumping these figures together, no weighting, no tactical voting!
and Rik, tut, tut, trying to cover the tracks of you guys slipping backwards.
Also Rik 1) did you get my email 2) any news on those Lib Dem defections yet?
Big Mak
What email?
49 -Rik, sent in a couple of days ago to you asking how things are going in Sutton, will forward again. Have you chnaged email recently?
128 ‘the straight choice’ or ‘a straight choice’? Simon Hughes or Lib Dems? Does it matter?
Lib Dems has a record of “unfair” insinuations against Labour.
Which brings us back to ““Lib Dems warned voters that Labour would increase tolls on the Forth bridge even though the decision rested with Tavish Scott, the Lib Dem transport minister””
Labour receives no thanks for helping the Lib Dems over the years. The Lib Dems are now in a position to replace Labour.
145, the BPIX poll suggests Brown’s reputation is still strong among voters, according to Anthony Wells’ site.
As I’ve said before, being respected by voters is a good deal more important than being liked. That’s hardly surprising. In almost any situation, who would you rather be led by? Someone you like, or someone you respect?
97: Didn’t realise you’re a pauper like me, Sean! I think I’m soon going to be in the same situation as you. My tax credits form arrived this week.
Tax Credits should really be NuLab’s Poll Tax - there should be people demonstrating in the streets. It’s time an organised campaign was started - let me know if there is one already and I’ll join. Otherwise, maybe we could start one?
132. I agree with you Mike. I noticed that last week and the fact that Gordon Brown was not around to answer questions!
153 - yes it does matter. If the Libs had promoted Hughes as ‘the straight choice’ against a known gay opponent then they would be legitimately open to criticism. If, as they did, the simply described the contest as being ‘a straight choice between Labour and the Alliance’ - which is what they did - then they do not deserve criticism and it isn’t a very good example to illustrate