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Best of luck for tomorrow

May 3rd, 2006
    Book Value to take over PB.C for a couple of days

I’m going to be away at a conference on the banks of Loch Lomond for a couple of days and Philip Grant (Book Value) will be standing in as guest editor of PB.C. Thanks for giving me a break Philip.

    Whatever your allegiance whatever your party can I wish all the PB.C regulars who are candidates tomorrow the very best of luck and that you get the outcome you want.

For those who only agreed to stand on the basis that they are “paper candidates” let’s hope that there are no upsets. This group includes my wife, Jacky!

For those who have been pounding the streets over the weeks and months to hold or to win seats I hope that your efforts have not been in vain. If you are elected for the first time I hope that you find life as a councillor rewarding.

And for those activists who have been supporting these campaigns you can at least look forward to a weekend of relaxation, whatever the result.

Most members of the public have no idea of the level of effort that goes into local campaigns - certainly much more than at a General Election. For whereas General Election are largely determined by national factors the experience is that it is hard work at the local level that makes the difference in council elections.

I’ll be back posting on Saturday.

Mike Smithson



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204 comments to “Best of luck for tomorrow”

  1. Thanks Mike for your efforts.

    Good luck to everyone who’s standing!


  2. Mike - hope the conference goes well!

    Good luck to all candidates especially Conservative ones!


  3. Thanks for all your work on the Site Mike. It is much appreciated by use political afficinados. I hope everyone who stands tommorrow does well.


  4. Good luck to all the candidates for tomorrow, and good luck to Book Value for taking charge during local election night, all the best.


  5. Thanks again for all the hard work Mike. And thanks BV.

    Good luck to all candidates who post on pb.com. And I mean that most sincerely folks!


  6. This candidate hopefully won’t be standing for long whatever his result tomorrow ;). Whether celebration or commiseration the end result is likley to be horizontal.

    Best of luck to all fellow asiring tribunes of the people.


  7. Good luck one and all but in particular:
    Arnie in Islington
    Iain in Watford
    Neil in Oxford and Tower Hamlets….


  8. 6. “Whether celebration or commiseration the end result is likley to be horizontal.”

    you and the bottle again! :wink:


  9. 8 - But hopefully not out AT the count :shock:


  10. Good luck to all candidates.

    Sorry to go O/T so soon, but Paddy Power has some new markets up which haven’t yet appeared via the bestbetting feed.

    Will Tony Blair/John Prescott/Charles Clarke still hold their current official posts on 1st July 2006?

    Blair - Yes 1/2, No 6/4
    Prescott - Yes 11/8, No 8/15
    Clarke - Yes 15/8, No 4/11

    If you think Blair will be around for a while this represents good value - a 50% return and you don’t have to wait until he eventually goes. Sadly the maximum online bet allowed is a measly £345.


  11. 9. John, I sadly know the effects of a couple of glasses could have on you and the topic of your discussions! :wink:
    But don’t worry, I cancelled all the material!


  12. 10 - That is a very good bet on Blair staying. The worst case scenario for him really is announcing his intention to go, with a timetable that sees him depart in autumn.


  13. First, good luck to all tomorrow whatever your role as Agent, candidate or helper (and I’m in the last category, I’m glad to say :)).

    Final update from Newham where the last couple of days has seen some frenetic campaigning. The LDs, Respect and Labour have all been leafletting East Ham tube station while I saw one of our Labour candidates enjoying an apple from the corner shop. She asked after my voting intention but I was fairly non-committal. Finally, the second Independent has put round a leaflet (including on parked cars).

    So, only the Tories have knocked on my door while Labour and the Independents have issued leaflets. We’ve had nothing directly from the Greens or Respect. My gut feeling is Labour will win my Ward but will suffer a cut in their majority on Newham Council.


  14. Comment from a Labour friend who was leafletting in Derby - Asked if he was doing any canvassing - “No afraid of the response we might get if actually spoke to anyone - we are only leafletting.”

    Good luck to the Lib Dems and a close second to all the other regulars standing with a Lib Dem opponent.

    And come on Richmond Lib Dem voters, you can do it. (when I asked Sportingodds why they had closed their market - they said their exposure was more than they had expected and they didnt want it to go any higher!)


  15. http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_1926527,00.html

    That headline made me think Tony wanted to deport the tories!


  16. This site goes from strength to strength. Have a well earned break Mike.

    Now, just returned from a holiday, and gone to ‘The Indy’ for my Alan Watkins fix, and find he hasn’t appeared for nearly 4 weeks.

    Does anyone know if he’s retired, been sacked, or is ill? I love his Sunday column, and his regular digs at Blair’s authoritarianism.


  17. 14 “(when I asked Sportingodds why they had closed their market - they said their exposure was more than they had expected and they didnt want it to go any higher!)”

    Also I suspect a fear on the part of their market maker that those placing the bets were better informed.


  18. It seems the big scandal may be about to reappear

    http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/the_scandals_go_around_and_aroun


  19. 18. Angus McNeil will probably get the same treatement Labour tried to use with Adam Price (the only not Labour held seat to be allegedly targeted last year)


  20. Enjoy your break, Mike - and once again thanks for all your (and Robert’s) hard work on this site - and thanks too to Philip for “minding the shop” for the next couple of days.

    I don’t think we’ll get much of a picture overnight - with the extension of polling to ten o’clock there are going to be more than the usual number of counts deferred to Friday IIRC.

    I had coffee with a couple of mates to-night, their political views in general are similar to mine (as tends to happen with mates :)) - all three of us are certain to vote but none of us yet has a clue how, although I detected some support for the Lib Dems because they’re not Thatcher or Blair…


  21. Re 10 great tip … but doesn’t seem to be there now?


  22. Said it earlier but will say it again - Hope all pb.com candidates get the results their personal efforts deserve tomorrow including the none Lib Dem ones . I am sure this site is in very good hands whilst you enjoy your break . Is there a Loch Lomond monster for you to spot Mike after a few too many drams ?


  23. Have a great trip, Mike!


  24. Max will be celebrating already


  25. I just wondered what time we can expect to start hearing some solid predictions tomorrow night, as i typically have a birthday party i have to attend. I hope to sneak back home around 12.30 to tune into the bbc, so i hope i don’t miss anything before then!


  26. I wouldn’t rely on the Beeb to make any predictions in advance of the result. I remember watching the 05 coverage and you could spot on the faces of the party workers and the piles of vote building up who was most likely to win - while the BBC reporter (and particularly Rita Chakribati) were far too grand to even notice instead pontificated with the help of various spin doctors inanities until the result was declared.

    Oh for the days of Vincent Hanna and reporters who actually understand the democratic process.


  27. Does anyone have the numbers for the results which will be declared tonight and for Friday?


  28. Estimated declaration times:
    http://www.election.press.net/constituencies_time.html


  29. 27 - http://www.election.press.net/constituencies_time.html


  30. Enjoy your break Mike - this site is much appreciated!

    First active election day tomorrow….meeting at 5:30 am and hopefully getting some good news at Wandsworth Town Hall in the early hours.

    Good luck to all peebies standing, especially those standing in shades of orange.

    P.S. Many of you know I work for a church. You might be interested to know that I’ve been pioneering some ‘Christian canvassing’ locally with a team-knocking on people’s doors to invite them to the next Alpha course we’re doing in the local pub, and finding out about needs and concerns (not potholes for a change :) ) Has been great so far and v interesting to see how poltical methods can be applied.


  31. All I can say is…

    Hundreds and miles walked in rain, snow, sleet, wind and blazing sunshine through every season, well over 30,000 ward leaflets delivered, Letters, Meetings, Public Speaking, did I mention Meetings?, Press stuff, websites, canvassing and mountains of admin, printing, designing, proofing, phoning, top and tailing, up until 2am for weeks on end, holding down a demanding day job and trying to be a dad who I have seen for about 5 minutes in the last month.

    Sounds like fun eh?

    I forgot, being attacked by dogs and bitten on the arm, groin and finger (nasty) plus wlaking into a large rose bush in the dark and generally injuring myself in many orginal ways while leafleting.

    Strangly being called Michael a lot when I’m clearly called Matthew on everyone of the 30,000+ leaflets we’ve put out over 10 months.

    My feet are falling apart and my wife nearly left me at one point.

    I will know if the effort has been worth it in 24 hours. I will be purchasing several cans of Red Bull in the morning, skiving off work and taking the PA wagon around the ward for some good old fashioned campaign fun.

    I fully indeed to enjoy every minute of Thursday regardless.

    Good night to all and good luck.

    Cheers,

    Matt.


  32. 28&29 thanks


  33. Yes good luck to Green Party candidates and Respect candidates and independents.

    The rest of you should be ashamed. However you can redeem yourself if you repent your sins and:

    a/leave the Labour Party if you are a member at least until Blair goes.

    b/embrace Jonathan Porritt as the saviour of your fortunes if you are a Tory.

    c/abandon the use of bar charts if you are a Lib Dem (or Lib Dim as Newsnight called it earlier).


  34. 31 - 30,000 over 10 months! Pah, you part-timer. We put out 28,000 in one month!! ;)


  35. Best of luck fellow Conservatives- candidates and those working on the campaign. If I wasn’t in Scotland I would have been out with blisters on my feet helping. It’s time to ‘rollback the red’ and it starts today :)


  36. Thank you printz. I can just see you now with your purple stole offering absolution to the guilty sinners of mainstream politics.

    How many “Hail George’s” do I have to say for being a Lib Dem?!


  37. 10 - Kevin L.
    Can’t find those bets at Paddypower. And frankly, 1/2 on TB to hold his job after 1 July 2006 is too good to be true.


  38. The Guardian mentions Haringey as a Labour loss, but they don’t mention Tower Hamlets:
    http://politics.guardian.co.uk/localelections2006/story/0,,1766928,00.html


  39. 38 - I take that to mean that Haringey is a safe hold and Tower Hamlets a rout, the Guardian being notoriously wayward on all such predictions - even by the low standards set by others.

    I trust everyone has done their “Good Mornings” by now?


  40. 39 - The Grauniad yesterday said that overall control of Birmingham was “within the Tories’ grasp”. Which would mean taking every single Labour seat being contested today, and about 2/3 of the Lib Dem ones. I don’t think even the most optimistic Cameroon thinks that is plausible.


  41. 37 - they’ve disappeared now. But they did exist, albeit briefly!


  42. 40. Of course it’s ridiculous. A standard Guardian scare story to try to get a bit of the Blair intelligentsia vote out in dire straits.


  43. Have a great break Mike - your hard work is really appreciated.

    Good luck to all pb.c candidates today!


  44. That’s better! Anyone here?


  45. Nick, this one?

    what does “others gain Harrow” mean?


  46. Er, maybe not. It’s the server that’s slow. Reverting to the first thread.


  47. I am - but not sure where others are!


  48. Sutton is 29 LDs and 22 tories with just Rik’s ward to declare


  49. I’m here. This is like a French farce.


  50. This thread definitely quicker. Anyone there?


  51. BBC declares that the Lib Dems have held control of Sutton with a drastically reduced margin.


  52. I’m staying here. It’s much quicker. Can someone get the others?


  53. We are staying here, offical declaration!


  54. Just you and me, Mister Matlock, just you and me. At last we are alone.


  55. 52 - Nick is working on it. If he suceeds, he may be in with a shot of replacing Hilary Armstrong….


  56. BBC back on. Amazing result in Bexley.


  57. LDs, hold Sutton. No details of margin, but I PREDICT majority of 8. (Tip of hat to D.)


  58. So here you all are!

    I think that Labour have lost their last seats to the Lib Dems in Sutton.


  59. 11 BNP councillors in Barking. Tch tch tch - wake up Labour!!


  60. Chrisco, it’s 29 for LDs and 22 for Con with Rik’s ward result still not on their website.


  61. 54 - You keep your hands to yourself! :wink:

    57 - Chrisco, BBC reports the Lib Dems have lost 10 and the Tories have gained 14, with Rik’s ward yet to declare, apparently.


  62. Labour claims to have won Lambeth


  63. Sadly Rik didn’t make it! :-(

    LD 32 seats, Con 22


  64. 63 - That is a shame. :(


  65. Labour already hold Lambeth…


  66. :(…


  67. Congrats. to Hodge for Barking. What a great human being.

    http://society.guardian.co.uk/children/story/0,1074,1087250,00.html


  68. 65 - There’s been a (mildly controversial) LD/Con coalition in Lambeth since 2002.


  69. No Sean, twas LD-C coalition.


  70. No wonder the Hammersmith Labour Party are taking a beating - their former Council Leader is delusional!


  71. Lewisham lost by Labour to NOC


  72. It’s currently LD 12 C 6 in Richmond and looking like a photo finish - LDs picking up some target wards, not others.


  73. My bad on Lambeth - misreading the BBC stats. Has anyone got a latest councillors/councils lost & gained figure? The BBC computer is rubbishly slow.


  74. Labor lose Lewisham to NOC - that must be another 20 seats or so … that number is really shooting up now (as I said!)


  75. Lewisham goes NOC?

    Kerching…£££


  76. 74: Robert. 15 losses for Labour in Lewisham.
    Libdems up 10, Greens up 5, Con up 1, Salt unchanged, others down 1


  77. C +172 Lab -198 - before Lewisham, B&D, TH, Brent, Camden etc


  78. LDs Robert?


  79. I must say I’m sat here with broadband and freeview and this site is by the far the best source of info!

    It looks like (central)london will rescue the lib dems.


  80. 74. Yes Robert - you were quite right (as was NickP, incidentally) - London much worse for Labour than the rest of the country. But I don’t think even Nick would have predicted this London meltdown. Weird. Catastrophic for Labour in the capital.

    Labour maybe heading for 400 losses. Up there with their worst predictions. Hmm….


  81. LD -9. I’m getting this from Sky.
    Labour lost 11 out of 33 councils - so far - and they must be losing half of theirs in London, even if they gain Lambeth …


  82. LD -9 councillors overall??? Absolutely terrible!!


  83. NOC in Merton :(


  84. Dobbo says Camden NOC.

    £££££££!


  85. Tories largest party in Merton though.


  86. nick says the lights are slowly coming back on, they abandoned their move to television center.


  87. 84

    Those NOC prices on SportingOdds were superb


  88. Camden!!! Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Yay. My borough!!! My vote counted!!!!!! (for the first time in a long time)


  89. Lib Dem website says LD gain Richmond


  90. Conservatives gain Hillingdon


  91. On the plus side the parties are evenly split… just a sec… the BBC is saying that their still not sure if Merton has gone to NOC or swung to the Tories… I think their saying it’s a Tory gain?


  92. Anyone know if Camden labour leader is toast?


  93. I wish the BBC website was better. I want to see if my friends are the lucky ones in lewisham. I’ve read 10 LD gains there?


  94. In Merton the Tories got 30, Labour 27, others 3, so NOC but Tories largest party - i think.


  95. Merton is tied. Tories gain Hillingdon.


  96. No, Merton NOC


  97. Ben. tories have 30 out 60 seats in Merton:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2006/locals/html/ba.stm


  98. Harrow Tory gain.


  99. Con gain Hillingdon.

    Merton in 30 Con, 27 Lab & 3 Residents; looks like it will be Tory run.


  100. Bexley, Harrow and Hillingdon all swung to the Tories :)


  101. Ham & Fulham ‘certain’ to go Tory. This is a total wipeout in London for Labour.


  102. 91 Beeb website says the Tories have 30 of the 60 seats in Merton. Guess you have to check the small print to see if this gives them control.


  103. Where London leads, the nation follows. A great night for the Tories, no question.


  104. Yes, I’ve got the Richmond wards results coming in, and they’ve made 3 vital gains in Hampton
    I’d put pound signs up too but I’ve got an American keyboard!

    $$$$$$$$$$
    ?
    !


  105. Tories win Hammersmith.

    13/2.

    Thank you sportingodds.

    ££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££


  106. LDs in Richmond Robert?


  107. The “residents” in Merton are traditionally anti-Tory, IIRC - arose as a protest group over something the Tories did way back. The 4 tory gains will be Abbey ward (sigh) and one guy who won a split ward by 1 vote last time.


  108. Labour claim they’ve captured Lambeth from LD/Con coalition. What’s happened to Richmond?


  109. Do you know how many Labour losses there were in Hammersmith and in Hillingdon, Andrea?


  110. ‘No evidence of a Tory revival in London’ says Labour leader in Hammersmith. I wonder if he’s ever heard of ‘Bexley’. LOL.


  111. 105 - Excellent ! I had it at 5/1. I think we should find a way of sending Mike Smithson some of the winnings to help pay his server bills


  112. how long is it taking for the beeb to get power back !!


  113. Hillingdon: Con 45, Lab 18, LDs 2 - Another Tory landslide, and a disasterous decline for the Lib Dems.


  114. Time to go…the BIG news story (as in unexpected) is the Lib Dems actually losing seats overall despite Labour’s troubles.


  115. How odd! I was not expecting harrow gain but merton NOC! other way round i assumed.


  116. 109. I don’t know, Robert.


  117. Anyone got final predictions for seats lost/gained, councils lost/gained? I have to go to bed at some point… probly…


  118. So far LD 21 C 6 on Richmond


  119. Closer inspection of the Merton result shows the Tory margin in Abbey was just 67, so both sides were right to see this as the key battleground. Labour comfortably won the other ward in close contention, and in Lower Morden a single Labour candidate had a spectacular result, streets ahead of the others and the third Tory.


  120. Deeply depressing for the Lib Dems (what the F happened??); pretty damn gloomy for Labour; surprisingly good for the Tories, with the odd fly in the ointment like Manchester…


  121. Tories gain Ealing!


  122. tory gain ealing!


  123. Ealing…. Tory gain!!!!


  124. EALING? Is it real : )


  125. Tories gain Ealing!


  126. Tory Gain - Ealing.


  127. Con gain Ealing??????????


  128. I’ve never been so excited by…. Ealing. Heh.


  129. Must be very narrow… but Labour had a huge majority there!


  130. Wow Labour must have lost a LOT in Ealing.


  131. Tories gain EALING?!??!??!


  132. 127 - yes !!


  133. I love the Lib Dems explaining average results! Laws is scraping the barrel!


  134. Conservatives have taken Hammersmith and Fulham and apparently Ealing!!!


  135. 130 - It’s 15 or so seats changing hands at least


  136. Labour loses Camden. Chuffed.


  137. I have to go to bed! excellent company as ever. West Yorks (Leeds,Bradford,Wakefield, Kirklees and Calderdale) count tommorrow. I don’t know what to read into the national results as its a bit more politically mixed than South Yorks where labour seemed to have held on. I must dadly expect the odd BNP gain on the national results though.


  138. Has the Labour party ever done this badly in London? I doubt it. This is surely a historic reverse.


  139. David Laws- best night in the history of the party. Hahahahaha!


  140. Ealing really does make up for the disappointment of Brooklands :) Tories do need to work very hard over the next year in all the big cities… keep plugging away and learn from Little in Norwich!


  141. He is being ripped apart by the Professor on Sky!


  142. Laws is looking silly at the moment


  143. I mentioned Ealing - ooh, about two threads ago, or is it ahead? - as a sign of Labour meltdown in London ….wonder about Hounslow, though it’s been exceptionally loyal.


  144. 138 - Not a 1968, by any means. This is paradise for Labour compared to then.


  145. Labour have now lost 3/7 of their councils. Up from a third. REALLY not a good night for them.


  146. Labour hold Haringey


  147. The Lib Dems must be horrified with these results. Only 35 councils left to declare of 176 and they’re on a net loss of 2 council seats.

    Labour hold Haringey.


  148. Ok I am off to bed - night all!


  149. Haringey: Lab 30 (-11)
    LD 27(+11)


  150. Come on projected vote share..


  151. Menzies Campbell cannot be a happy man. Poor lamb.


  152. NOC Islington…


  153. Well, currently Con + 200, Lab -194, LD -2, with 140 of 176 councils declared. Because the London councils have triple the number of candidates at stake, they ‘weigh’ more heavily, and around half the remaining council are in London (including Lambeth where Labour has reportedly gained, and Tower Hamlets where they’re reportedly badly hit). I should think it’s heading for something like 280 each way with LDs all square.

    I think there was general agreement before the night that something of that order would be a reasonable result for Labour and the Tories and a poor result for the LDs. But everyone has some consolations to point to. Others will note their own consolations (sean’s hard at work on it); Labour has shown its core vote to be resistant to the most violent media firestorm for a long time, and the Tories are really not making the progress they expected - I shouldn’t think the implied national % is near the unofficial 40% target.


  154. Libdems lost Islington to NOC


  155. Lib Dems lose Idlington to NOC!!!


  156. Lib Dems lose Islington to NOC…


  157. Islington:

    LD -14
    Lab +13
    Others +1


  158. Con 40%, Lib 27%, Lab 26%


  159. CON 40%, LD 27%, LAB 26%. Splendid for us!


  160. LD’s have lost Milton Keynes to NOC


  161. BBC projected vote share
    Con 40
    LD 27
    Lab 26

    DOn’t know what it was in 2002/4 but this is a meaningless number IMO - in 2003 (on all up districts) it had the Lib Dems projected vote share about 4% HIGHER than the votes we actually polled. Given that the only bits that didn’t actually vote were London & Wales (ie below average areas) I couldn’t see the basis for how they came up with that number.


  162. Lib Dems lose Milton Keynes… better and better! :)


  163. I’m sorry, how the devil did the lib dems looose milton keynes?!


  164. Still unclear what will happen in Lambeth


  165. H&F seems truly awful for Lab…


  166. 157. The “other” seat in Islington is for the Greens.


  167. Ed Davey is sweating buckets on BBC…


  168. Tories gain 6 in MK. I revise my prediction. Poor night for LD’s. V.Poor if they don’t take Richmond back. Good for Labour outside London but dreadful inside it. Does anyone have the numbers for H&F?


  169. Nick, darling, you’re in third place! You’re the governing party and you’ve been beaten by the Lib Dems, who have had a terrible night themselves. The Tories are on 40%, and you are on 26%.

    This ain’t good, is it?

    As Anthony King has just said as I write - a great night for the Tories, a bad night for Labour, and a drippy evening for the Lib Dems.

    Alistair Campbell couldn’t spin this into a reasonable evening for Labour, let alone the honourable member for Broxtowe.

    But well done on, er, Haringey?!

    Cheer up though - you’ve got four years to get rid of Blair. I’d hurry up if I were you.


  170. Nick, Labour have lost 217, not counting the 12 in Barking to the BNP, or Croydon or Brent or Tower Hamlets or Ealing or Camden - about 10 each in these - or 20 plus in Hammersmith; that’s nealry 300 … OK some gains in Lambeth and Islington; but W Yorkshire won’t be great (I fear BNP)- oh, and nearly ten other London boroughs not included.
    I think that’ll be more than 280.


  171. If Davey spins any harder on BBC he’s going to have lift-off…


  172. Robert any news on East Sheen Ward in Richmond or any info on Kingston. V.Irritated to see Mr Cranfield Adams elected in N.Richmond. I thought it would split letting a Tory in. How about Barnet?


  173. Labour will be down from 28 to about 8 in H&F.
    Richmond is a certaiin LD gain now, I think, based on declared ward results.
    Kingston, though?


  174. 173. Robert, to follow Kingston situation:
    http://www.kingston.gov.uk/results.htm


  175. Con hold Redbridge.


  176. Con hold - Redbridge.


  177. East Sheen not declared, but a Tory hold, I would expect.


  178. Islington - great stuff, and maybe Lambeth still to come (but also Tower Hamlets, shudder). The London results are just all over the shop. There seems to be a strong anti-incumbent swing in many of the cases, and perhaps many people really have voted on local issues?


  179. They’ve just said on the BBC that the Tories are +4% in the South, but static in the North. It would seem that the Tories are heading to be a party only for the Southern half of England, although they may well enjoy the sort of dominance there that Labour have had in Scotland.
    This continues the 05GE trend.


  180. Sky talked about 17gains for LD in Richmond


  181. Con gain Ealing…BBC popup. WOW!


  182. Conservatives have officially gained Ealing


  183. 178 - voting against incumbents has been a growing pattern in recent years. In 2002 for example Labour lost Enfield and won somewhere else in London. Lib Dems took Kingston from the Tories and lost Richmond.

    These seem to be reversing this time!


  184. Libdems largest party in Candem.
    A ward is disputed.


  185. Tomothy, 25 million people live in southern England, maybe 6 million in Scotland. I know where I’d rather predominate.

    And you’re wrong anyway - the Tories have taken or held Trafford, Bury, Chester, Congelton, Warrington, Macclesfield, etc etc etc.

    NickP - I wouldn’t say the results in London are ‘all over the shop’. Yes, there are anomalies, but there’s been a significant swing from Labour to the Tories in most boroughs. Pretty simple, really.

    Bexley!!!!


  186. C did hold all 3 seats in E Sheen, Andrew.


  187. Nick Griffin on the Beeb. Just said they’ve gained more seats than the Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens put together.


  188. 187. he’s mad


  189. Dimbleby just kebabbed him. All too easily.

    When thousands of people are so desperate they will vote for this fatuous buffoon something is seriously wrong. Nick!


  190. Conservative hold - Bromley. Gain of 9 seats, mostly from Lib Dem.


  191. Damn, the tories did well in Bromley!


  192. Con gain hastings… i didn’t even know there were elections there!


  193. Robert Waller - yes, you could well be right - it’s hard to be sure with results varying so much. 300-320, maybe?

    Of course, all of us partisans here are playing the expectations game, but there were Tory posts here in the last 48 hours predicting Labour losses north of 500. The outcome is better than I’d expected or predicted - less uniformly awful in London, and patches of good results both inside and outside the capital. Obviously we’d rather be ahead in the vote and making net gains, but in the circs it will do.


  194. Can anyone give full numbers on H&F and Ealing?


  195. LD 30 C 18 in Richmond with 9 seats to declare … I can go to bed now….!
    Thanks everybody for the information, commentary, and comment!


  196. Nick, there were also chortling Labourites on here, two weeks ago, predicting Tory LOSSES of 75!!

    But yes we are all managing expectations. What is remarkable is how low your expectations were…. ;)


  197. Conservatives gain Max Hastings!

    (Too much wine…)


  198. Conservatives gain croydon


  199. To be fair, Tower Hamlets is all over the shop. Early Labour GAINS. Derr?


  200. Sounds like the four way split in Tower Hamlets is going to produce bizarre results.


  201. Labour lost 10 seats in Croydon (and the council). Robert is right - the gains/losses are stacking up…


  202. Long day! Seems like a week since I got up in london this morning. I’ll call it a night - thanks for convivial company, guys.


  203. G’night…


  204. Goodnight Seanboy.