11 hours down, 7 to go
May 4th, 20066pm update
With four hours to go until the polls close, readers will be looking forward to following the results as they come in. The Press Association expects the first result to come in from Tamworth around 11.30pm, with the last of the night’s results from Richmond at 6am. Some councils count on Friday morning. The full list may help plan your evening, though we are not sure how these figures have been estimated. If my own borough of Southwark does declare at 4am, I will have a long night!
You can see the results and hear political worthies discuss them on BBC1 (from 11.40pm), Radio 5 Live (from 10pm) and Sky News (from 10.30pm).
We wish you an enjoyable evening. Please keep your comments and local knowledge coming!
The author is a Liberal Democrat activist in London. Mike Smithson returns at the weekend.
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Haringey is being talked down madly by Labour (see Guardian today where Labour sources predict a loss) but it’s probably too close to call. Gaining all of the wards on the ‘right side of the tracks’ (the likes of Crouch End, Highgate, Muswell Hill to the west of the East Coast mainline that bisects the borough) would yield the LDs 21 seats. The hurdle for control is 29, so that would require, say, Bounds Green, Woodside and Harringay in addition. This is a very big ask — Harringay is in the Tottenham constituency and an unknown quantity. Also, this list of wards leaves a margin of error of just one councillor — and something always goes wrong somewhere…
O/T - why does the BBC report @ 284 in the previous thread state that Menzies Campbell doesn’t have a vote? Doesn’t he have a house in London?
The tories have replaced labour as favourite to win the next election, according to the little scrolling box of knowledge at the top of the screen
all west yorkshire counts will be tommorrow.
Campbell votes in Edinburgh
2 - yes, but you only get one vote even if you have 48 houses, right?
4. Aww, they’re spoiling it for those of us who want to stay up ’till 4am and watch the results!
6 - not true in local elections. One can vote anywhere one is on the electoral roll, and that requires only six (?) weeks residence. Many students vote at home and at college, for example.
6 - no - you would get 48 votes so long as they are located in 48 different local authorities. And you live at all of them.
In reality, MPs might get a vote in London and one at home, and students usually can have two votes. Perhaps some of those in Kensington and Chelsea have a vote at their country estate (hence low K&C turnout in general elections), but very few other people get more than one vote.
In GE, you cannot vote more than once as it is a single body being elected.
(I think this is correct, but feel free to correct me.)
9. and do you find all this normal?
Next time Anna will tell me, it’s easy to rig election here……
10 - wasn’t really an issue until the vast expansion in postal voting.
10 - It does seem strange, but in the case of somebody who lives in two different places, it seems reasonable that they should have a say on who runs the council in each of those places.
What seems stranger to me is that all those people on the Costa del Sol get votes in GEs here years after they have emigrated!
And EU nationals get local and Euro votes but no GE vote. Commonwealth and Irish citizens get local, Euro and GE votes. (Mozambique has no historical connection with the UK, and joined the Commonwealth as its neighbours and trading partners were in it. Mozambiquis therefore get a vote in a GE if living in the UK, whereas an Italian national living here for 20 years will not.)
Maybe Italy should join the Commonwealth.
So, the question is: is it the BBC’s mistake or Ming’s? (and if the latter he should perhaps learn how the existing system works seeing as a major part of the LibDem platform is the introduction of a new one!)
Re 12: I Remember meeting a fairly pompous official from the French Embassy at a Union Debate once in Durham who mentioned this and then said he was going to vote for the Liberal Democrats.
11/12. In 2010 I’ll come to London and buy an house in a marginal ward in Brent, one in Candem and one in Haringey!
13. And?
If the Haringey situation is true (and I’m sure Featherstone is making sure it is!) then one council could provide about a quarter of all LD gains if some predictions are right. What an amazing change in local conditions for that to happen.
Bristol will be fascinating. I keep hearing different reports on whether we’ll get the 4 seats needed to take control (one person who knows said yes, and the other who apparently knows all said no). Also Cheltenham here in my area- will the LDs hold off the tories- and Stroud could see some Green gains perhaps.
16 - why 2010?
[15] I’m now trying to visualise an unfairly pompous official… ah! it’s come to me, but there’s a law against defamation…
18. When will London boroughs vote again?
The final, final nail in Charles Clarke’s coffin methinks.
14 - having checked 192.com, it appears that there is no (Walter) Menzies Campbell on an electoral roll in London.
5: not today he doesn’t - Scottish locals aren’t until next year.
20 - probably never as TB will suspend local government when he gets the results.
Otherwise in 4 years.
17 - The Cheltenham results will be interesting. They should be a good bell weather as to how the Tory/LD fights in the west coutry will go at the next GE.
Do you know any info on the ground?
21. I think it will take a miracle to get Clarke out now. He should have gone ages ago, of course.
24. so 2010, right? or is my math went crazy?!
27 - yes, but there’s a Mayoral election before then.
26 - the longer Clarke stays is a gift to the Tories/LD’s, as the poison from the deportation failure will just keep drip drip dripping…….
I do love Lib Dem stats:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/tory-support-drops-again.html
Presumably their average of averages methodology allows them to “publish” the occasional 600-vote canvass return in Moray (for example) and whack out a winning here splash.
30 - the bar chart may be silly, but this is a genuine average of reputable monthly polls. The kind of tracker that newspapers report.
28. yes, but I can’t vote twice for Ken, right? Or could I?!
32 - No. You can’t vote twice in the same election. But voting in Camden and Brent would be allowed as they are different elections for different bodies. Ken is just one body!
ooohh - the excitement builds! (This is probably worse than the general election).
On a slightly more serious point, does anyone know why Richmond declares so late? My home rural seats could declare quicker than they will
25- I was told (and have heard it again quite recently) that the canvassing was better than expected. The LDs have quite an active MP, so it will be interesting, but I have no details tonight, no.
10 Andrea: “Next time Anna will tell me, it’s easy to rig election here……”
Actually I don’t need to rig anything… As a student I genuinely get two votes in the local elections because they are for different districts….
Isn’t there a saying in Italy for your elections : “Vote early, vote often!”
36.”Isn’t there a saying in Italy for your elections : “Vote early, vote often!”
No. but we’ve “God could see you in the polling station. Stalin no”
.
I think you’ll find that’s West Belfast Anna.
SBS You cannot really average polls (although it is fun sometimes) to show anything much at all. I learnt that at the GE. They all have different methodologies and samples. A bit like averaging apples and pears and peaches. It might give you an average of the total items but not of how many apples you have.
John Curtice does a monthly “poll of polls” in the Independent and I was always under the impression that it was a simple, unweighted average. Was I mistaken?
With regard to how late we’re going to have to wait up for the results, I imagine that the PA list of declaration times refers to the last result. I hope we’ll be able to get news from key wards in the various councils as they are individually declared; anyone who can post here would be much appreciated, I’m sure, plus there’s the Election Night threads on Vote-2006.
The BBC will perhaps be taking 100 or so representative wards for their prediction of natinal-equivalent vote shares - they’ve done this for donkey’s years (I was involved with the exercise along with John Curtice in 1980-85). It’s usually pretty reliable by the time they decide to ‘go public’.
I myself am expecting a message from my own borough of Richmond around midnight - a Lib Dem gain of the council is expected. I’d be particularly interested from a betting point of view in Hammersmith & Fulham, Merton, Croydon, Tower Hamlets as well as Richmond, having taken advantage (??!) of the SportingOdds initial offers .. wonder which other councils pb.com punters are looking out for ….
St Albans Update :
Polling in the target wards said to be brisk. The fine weather continues to pull in the punters together with the very tight races in 10 wards.
The Lib Dems should pull off the solitary gain they need for overall control. Despite Jack W voting blue this time (or because of it
) I expect Lib Dem net gains of at least +4.
Labour seem resigned to losing St Peters to the Lib Dems and London Colney is “tighter than expected” with the Conservatives. Harpenden Tories confident of holding off the Lib Dems in the marginal West ward.
39 - I know, but if you average the same polls every month, it can show some sort of meaningful trend. As I believe John Curtice does. It’s all a bit rough and ready, but so are the opinion polls in the first place. As Peter Snow used to say “It’s only a bit of fun!”
39 & 40. I think the “average of averages” is a bit dodgy too - although admittedly I used my post as a cheap shot against the “winning here, even if we’ve never stood before” bar charts.
It may well be possoble to aggregate various polls with access to the source data, but averaging the headline figures has many errors, not least of which is the way different pollsters account for past vote recall, in built party advantages, etc. I doubt that the Lib dems went to this trouble in their splash…
I suppose if your average of averages is a sufficently large sample, then these differences become less pronounced. But on an average of headlines of say a dozen polls a month, the frequency with which MORI polls are published one month and YouGov the next could account more more of the apparent differentce, than changed voting intentions.
Of course I could be completely wrong… my statistics is limted to repeatedly pulling coins out of my pocket in my A-level stats paper and pretentding they were the coloured balls in the bag referred to in the question!
In any event, we will have real figures to work on in a few short hours time.
42 - I used to live in Marshalswick South, lib dem but the tories have been creeping ever closer. Any ideas about that one?
Oh well. Off to do my stint of telling in a split ward (2 LD, 1 Tory - who is up for re-election). Hope there is a Tory teller there, as the graveyard telling shift can get very dull on your own.
45 ukpaul. Established Lib Dem Mick Ketley has a maj of over 700 over Tory. Neither party is expecting any change. Lib Dems also hold other 2 seats in the ward.
47 - Just that in 2004 there seemed to be 100 or so votes in it, if it’s a well respected councillor defending that should make a difference though.
Turnout in our ward in Ealing looks pathetic. 15%?
I have just voted for a conservative for the first time since 1979 - I know him.
On the way home a bird CraXXed on me hugely.
Is there a moral here somewhere.
41 I live in Gedling, not too much around us. Ill be looking out particularly for two areas not too far away, Bassetlaw, where the Tories are hopeful of gaining control, and Amber Valley in Derbyshire, which is tight and could go either way. If the Tories are in control of these two councils by the end of the night, I will be a very happy man.
AARRGGHH!!
I hate this feeling. Butterflies. Every time the same - however small the election. Does anyone else get this?
Prediction. Labour to be hammered.
St Albans Update :
Turnout looking to be in the 45%/55% range in most wards. About average for the area.
Lib Dems write off Harpenden West. Expect first marginal results from both Sandridge and St Peters, both Lib Dem targets, about 11.30pm. Full count by 1.30am.
my dad is talking forever about politics and the polls!!!!!!!!!!
aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh
i’m turning into him. My life is over
from thomas his son
P.S. im only 10
“Mick Kettley is a Lib Dem man, a Lib Dem man …”
50 - ah, a nearish neighbour
54 Tabman. Back to your bar charts, yellow perilist !!
Robert on the notional vote shares two questions. Do the BBC just calculate an England figure ( there being no scottish and welsh elections) and second do they apply some artificial adjustment reducing ‘others’ and apportioning the result to the main three as Sean Fear alleges? Finally Lewis Baston says that 300-50 losses for Labour equals 2004 performance; Peter Riddell says 150 odd. Who’s right?
Bad news in Richmond if you’re right. I will be looking out for councils like Haringey and Manchester. If they go NOC it really will be ‘no panic no panic country’ for Labour.
50 - I’d be surprised if we lost Amber Valley. We had a 3 seat majority going into the elections and no 3rd party councillors. I don’t know who holds the 15 seats up today though.
Now Bassetlaw, we should be looking to take control of, if we are making any progress under the Boy Cameron.
Like others… nerves are a-fluttering. Am relatively confident of a good night, but then so seem to be the Lib Dems I know too.
Unfortunately since I live in Wales, I have had no vote and have to wait another 30 mins later than the rest of you for BBC Election prog to start. The preceding 30 mins filled with all the thrills and spills from the Parish Council in the fancy building in cardiff.
Any estimates yet of overall anticipated turnout?
The conventional wisdom is that a high turnout usually favours Labour - but this time the opposite may prove to be the case as the “punishment factor”, if such exists, kicks in.
56 - back to the bar … stuff the charts (hic)!
I was in Shrewsbury today. Saw some Tory-voting fields, and a lot of polling stations. Not much activity though.
59 BBC reporting that it could be as high as 40%…
Just reading, belatedly, the front page of the Guardian (which is practically an anti-government pamphlet these days). Nice news about the prisoner release scandal.
It occurs to me that, in the light of this scandal and Clarke’s remarkable refusal to resign, Tony Blair’s famous election slogan could now be slightly revised, to:
Tough on crime, Tough sh1t if you get raped by a convicted Iraqi Kurd we should have deported.
This whole thing must surely be a massive vote loser for Labour. I find it hard to believe anyone could actually consider voting for them, in the light of this appalling incompetence. I mean, is anyone out there saying: ‘Hey, yeah! I’m voting Labour! Get me in that polling booth!’
As if.
I see David Cameron was the “sixty second” interview in the Metro today - on polling day!
62 - If I recall correctly the previous figure was approx 38%, so probably not much change then - maybe the previous consistent decline has been halted. If so, I can’t imagine, in the circumstances,that this has resulted from Labour increasing their tally, which could mean very bad news for them.
64 - Well it is published by the Mail group - what would you expect!
62 Anna. Was that 40% @ 8.00pm or notional at close of play??
67 - Jack, it must be the latter surely.
62,65. According to BBC:
“About 3.5% of the electorate voted in the first two hours at a polling station in key marginal Streatham South ward.
A projection, allowing for the fact that half of those voting traditionally do so after 1700BST - and taking account of postal votes - suggests a final turnout figure of nearly 40% compared with just over 30% last time.”
Despite the very dodgy projection from 3.5% votes cast in 2 hours(!) I agree though that any increased turnout is not going to be good news for Labour. Question is, will it be good news for Conservatives and/or Lib Dems or for “others”? Where is this increased turnout going to go?
49
That is supposed to be very good luck!!
68 Peter P. Probably, unless the Beeb is exit polling ?!? Actually I’m unsure on that one?
67 The latter and extrapolated from one polling station in Streatham in the early morning.
Frankly I wouldn’t base a barchart upon it.
72 - Especially as so many people now vote by post (and how!) - I just don’t see how they can make any meaningful extrapolations based simply on the number of people turning up at the Polling Stations.
Seant,
How did you vote in the middle 90`s.
Did you rush to the booth, to vote for the conservatives.
69. God knows who will benefit from the above-average turnout. In any other situation I might have cautiously suggested that Labour would do better than expected, but I think it’s also highly possible that the turnout might contribute to their battering. A lot of people might be swing voters who a couple of weeks ago might have made the decision not to vote because they didn’t know who to vote for - but in light of the good weather and Labour’s troubles they were swayed into taking a stroll to the polling station and voting for the Anyone But Labour Party.
74. No, I didn’t rush into the booth to vote for Major! I voted for him reluctantly once, and then abstained.
But that’s my point - apart from the most tribalistic, its difficult to see anyone cheerfully voting Labour right now. Same as with the Tories in the 90s.
We shall have to wait and see….!
higher turnout is not good for labour - this is going to go very very badly, from news around the country im starting to see the dreaded worse than 1968 headlines.
74,
I agree in a council election especially now, many labour voters will sit on their hands.
What I am trying to work out is this the end of the Blair era, in comparison to 1988, 89, when Thatchers era was coming to an end.
Lawson resigning etc
However the conservatives still had 9 years in power to go.
Or is it comparable to 1995, when the conservatives were finished.
58. Amber Valley - 11 Labour and 4 Conservative seats up this year. This year’s tranche of wards is slightly more Labour inclined than Amber Valley as a whole, but I think we should expect at least three Conservative gains. BNP candidates in Heanor.
77. Good.
I’ve just read Chrisco’s link to the latest Clarke story. It just gets worse and worse. And yet - thing is, Clarke still hasn’t gone.
Why? Last week we were told - if any of these guys have committed offences, Clarke is toast and he’ll resign.
Turns out several have committed offences. Yet Clarke stayed. Then we were told - well, they have to be serious offences, then he’ll definitely go. So we find out some of these guys are accused of rapes, robbery, etc. Still Clarke stayed.
Now we find out one of them is a suspect terrorist. And he still hasn’t gone.
And Labour wonder why they might be doing badly in the elections? I don’t understand the sudden loss of acuity in Labour circles. don’t they see how badly this is playing out here - the fact that Clarke just clings on no matter what? People are now openly contemptuous of Labour.
Blair should have acted decisively and sacked Clarke last week - that would have looked like an honest acknowledgement of failure. Now they look like a bunch of shysters, desperate careerists who value their pensions over the public good. Oddly stupid for such a supposedly switched-on party.
Any Labourites care to explain Blair’s thinking here? Why not sack Clarke?
78. Much as I’d like it to be like 1995, I rather think it is like 1989 at the moment.
Despite the bookies now favouring (very very marginally) a Tory woin at the next GE, the electoral maths are stacked too heavily against us at present.
However, when GB takes over and the economy really starts to stink and Bush goes into Iran with Brown in tow (even from 30,000 ft), then we may see 2009/10 in different complexion…
25 - Re Chelt: Just back from a burst of knocking up - couldn’t resist a chance to catch my breath and log on before going out for the final push
Lib Dems will lose 3-5 seats but pick up the solitary Labour ward. Looks like their share of the vote will drop as well. Their campaign has not been well organised and there have been a glum faced LD activists in the past few days.
81 - because there’s little point of sacking him before tonight’s results. You would then need a second sacrificial lamb tomorrow morning.
Oh wait - there’s Prescott for that. Oh, and Patsy. Oh, and maybe even Peter Hain if he isn’t locked up first.
Voted in Abbey ward, Barking & Dagenham, at 20:00
Four candidates (3 Labour, 1 Conservative), for three vacancies. Both parties had representatives at the polling station.
Not many (15%?) names crossed through on the register, but being commuter territory, the last couple of hours could be busier.
Will be interesting to see whether the BNP have overstretched themselves elsewhere in the Borough, by contesting so many wards. However, ‘events’ have given them momentum.
Well, I think unless Labour only make modest losses at best, the media have already got their story ready and waiting; “Blair battered as voters lose confidence in the government…”
This is a key electoral test for Campbell and Cameron, but in light of the recent Labour scandals I think they’ll largely be overlooked. Thanks to these scandals, the focus is on Labour, and whether voters will tolerate another 2 or so years of Blair. I think there’s a pre-prepared story in this, unless the Labour vote holds up better than expected…
My guess at this stage - poor results for Labour - not a meltdown of 1968 proportions but certainly substantial losses that will up the pressure on the government. The Tories and Lib Dems will both make modest gains, with perhaps the Tories picking up more due to votes being split in 3 way contests.
77. Sounds like panic stations!…..I wonder if the mysterious Ian (was it?) who gave us some early indications of Tory gains at the GE will be posting again tonight..?
BREAKING NEWS :
News from inside Labour election unit. They’ve advised Downing Street to “prepare for staggering and unprecedented losses”.
Oopps !!
Chrisco at 38, you betcha its West Belfast..people used to turn up to find they had already voted though its on the wane with rolling registration. Brings a whole new meaning to the word Gerrymandering given the sitting MP in West Belfast.
Anyone care to guess how many seats the BNP will pick up tonight?
Less than 10 though they will poll well in some areas .
78 - a higher turnout never favours Labour contrary to popular opinion.
1968 city!
Chrisco et al. The Beeb will be streaming results online from 1040pm. Go to Beeb News home page:
http://news.bbc.co.uk
Much attention has been on the Big 3, just interesting to see how the smaller parties will do tonight. I reckon the smaller parties will do relatively well, mopping up disaffected Labour voters (who can bring themselves to vote Tory or Lib-Dem).
Jack at 87, don’t know ya so no idea if thats a genuine claim or you sticking a boot in…I’d have to agree with other posts questioning how you could vote for Labour right now, I couldn’t fathom it myself even though they don’t give me the opportunity to vote for them in my territory. I suspect an awful lot of people would be thinking the same.
94 Yokel. Peasant !!!!
2nd or 3rd story of tonight could well be the BNP. Lets put it this way their base is low so any reasonable gains in councillors will look substantial in percentage terms and we all know how the media reports, pick the way to present their numbers to make the result look most spectacular and broadcast it.
I got a slack jaw and all, but it does allow me to stuff a whole BIg Mac in me mouth in one go. Fast food alright
96. True, considering the number of candidates that they are fielding. If they were contesting all 4,000 or so seats then it would be a different story.
Just come back from a drive round Twickenham to see a few points raised.
71, Jack, I’m pretty sure nobody is doing a proper exit poll - they cost a fortune, and I have usually been involved in some way … as far as I know there’s never been one for May local elections.
69, Robin, I don’t know where (or when?)the ‘conventional wisdom’ that 50% vote after 7 pm comes from. In national exit polls we have found the figure much less, maybe 25-30%, and again against some opinions it has not made a significant partisan difference in my time (since the 1980s)
57, Blue Moon, I’ve not been involved in local election extrapolation since 1985. We didn’t have so many ‘others’ then, but I would not be surprised if they were adjusted in some way now, for example in selecting wards where the three major parties are the lead competitors. As the elections are only in England, changes in share of the vote would be recorded for ‘English’ parties only, so it would probably be assumed that Nationalists would stay steady and swings in Scotland and Wales would be the same in a hypothetical general election.
As for number of seats to repeat 2004, I’d guess between Lewis Baston and Peter Riddell but tend towards the former. In London alone the difference between 2002 and 2004 would be 150-200, I’d have thought, and there are the other councils outside the Mets which were last fought in 2002 as well - maybe Peter forgot those.
On Richmond, my main source of information heard I’d got 5-1 against the Lib Dems, exclaimed “it’s more like 5 to 1 on” and hurtled off to try to open an account. It’s true that he’s a Lib Dem ‘ward heeler’, but he’s also extremely tight! - and he still bet even though it was about 5-2 by then.
Another factor worth considering is the tax credits disaster. The Revenue is trying to claw back several billion pounds from - presumably - tens of thousands of low income people. If these people have been receiving tax credit clawback letters like I’ve been receiving (threatening prosecution for mistakes made by the taxman!) then they too are going to be very disenchanted with Labour.
These tens of thousands of people will have hundreds of thousands of relatives, friends, collagues. That’s a very large number of low income electors drifting away (or fleeing in anger) from Labour.
58 Hope you get the good night you are hoping for, I recall I was in Wales (Newport to be precise) in 1996. That was a night the Conservatives were virtually wiped out, I even recall we lost overall control of Runnymede and Tory ministers were trying to spin holding Huntingdon and Wokingham with small majorities as a truimph (to no avail of course.) Could this be a similar night in reverse, Im not sure as I suspect it wont be quite that bad for Labour, but it should still be a pretty good night for the Conservatives.
92 - Jack W - the election night coverage on BBC News Online doesn’t start till 23:40pm. You must have read the GMT figure
Thanks Robert. What would you think of as ‘meltdown’ for Labour. I would have thought losing councils like Haringey or Manchester to NOC would fall into that category. As for overall losses I would have thought significantly worse than 2004 say 400 plus?
101 Kevin A. I think you are correct. my info from inside Labour is desperately alarming for the government. Talk of a few hundred losses is way off target IMO. My view is around 600 net losses for Labour. A horrible night for Labour
104 - I wouldn’t be surprised if was 800!
Tony is worried
102 Eddie. Correct, I’m running on JST !! …. Jacobite Summer Time.
400 losses….600 losses…800 losses…is this Labour dabbling in a bit of expectation management so that losses of around 300 could be portrayed as a victory???
Let’s not get too carried away with the expectations. Just a few hours to go till we start to get an idea of how it’s all going to play out… we’ve waited this long, I think we can hold on a bit more!
107 Kevin. Calling “Ave it 06″ a Labour supporter is rather funny !!
I’m surprised how little we’ve heard of the minor parties - I’d expect the independents in Barnsley and Wigan to do well - wouldn’t be surprised to see Labour lose these. Also I think the Greens will do well, and I think the BNP will have some results to cheer.
None of this will make much diference, as it seems to have already been decided that stories 1, 2 and 3 will be Labour meltdown.
I hope Tony King’s on. I’m looking forward to the expression of baffled fury on his face as the spinning starts.
But Labour are only defending 1800 seats (860 in London) - anything over 200 losses would be bad, anything over 400 goodbye John, Over 500 goodbye Charles, over 600 hello Gordon!
103, blue moon, agreed; losing Haringey would imply that wards had fallen in the Tottenham half too. Manchester is a rare remaining big city ‘flagship’, and they’d have to lose nine wards, including some very safe looking in 2004. I also mentioned in my Telegraph article that much would be made of a loss of Wigan to NOC eg through Community Action gains - George Orwell and all that - and St Helens next door might just go too. In London a good benchmark of a really bad result would be if they lost Ealing, and Hounslow too given its loyalty. For some odd (and some nasty) results I’d watch Stoke on Trent (where’s Richard (Original)?!)
Overall, over 500 losses would be hard to spin away, I’d guess ….
300 losses is itself fairly grim for Labour, given the low base they are working from. 600+ losses means bye-bye Tony, no?
107/109 - yes I’m labour really.
Secret poll management info 1500 losses and no london councils! (Oops sorry that doesn’t come out till tomorrow)
76: Labour got 29% in 1983 with ‘the longest suicide note in history’ and the tories got 31% in 1997 despite 5 years of hell with the poll tax, Black Wednesday and all that ’sleaze’ (seems kinda mild now…) plus even their once loyal press having enough of them e.g. the Times. It seems about 60% of the electorate would vote for the proverbial donkey in a red or blue shirt. Sad isn’t it?
Just popping in before heading off to the count (after a hard day working the ward, I’ve had a take the evening off for a meeting.) Great to read all the comments-thanks to those who’ve posted their local stories.
My ‘first’ election day began before 6 and has included good morning leaflets, first attempts at telling and knocking up, using voting software and running off door-knocking lists, and slightly comically being sent out onto one road only to be mown down by the Sadiq Khan hit and run squad followed by the Conservative babes.
Not feeling as confident as I was-Labour have upped their game over the last few days when they finally realised that we were about to take the ward off them, and where I am they just have a massive core who if they vote would never consider voting other than Labour no matter how useless the candidates or government are. So we’ll see. Could be a long night ahead…
Not looking good for Labour overall, but it will feel very shallow if we don’t win the one ward I’ve been putting so much of the last month into.
See you all tomorrow,
Ric
Hmmm. So if Labour get hammered or most likely worse, they are going to be able to appear to be the underdog from here on in. Could be a useful familiar feeling to motivate Labour activists still not used to govt.
They will probably fall apart though, rather than use this to their advantage.
112 I used to live in Tottenham and find it hard to imagine that Labour will lose seats on the wrong side of the borough. Manchester cannot fall this time around on any realistic assumption. St Helens could fall though…
113 indeed the 2004 seats up in the Mets are worst ever results - Labour ought to rebound somewhat…
111 Icarus. There’s no electoral law that says the voters can’t give the government a mighty kick up the ballots and lose mightily. I expect tonight to be one of those nights with both Conservatives and Lib Dems “winning here” seats in the most unexpected places. All those odd 2 or 3 loses racking up to a disaster of huge proportions for Labour.
Hard to argue that losses in excess of 600 seats plus third in the popular vote would not be meltdown for New Labour.
But JackW, we know you are NuLabourite through and through - so you are just spinning our expectations. Right?
41. Robert, I think the real free money bet on Sporting Odds was Con to take Bexley at 4/9. I maxed out on that one and, thanks to the huge change in the odds on Hammersmith & Fulham, the only way I can lose overall is if Bexley doesn’t go Conservative.
The other results I have a stake in are Richmond (10/1 against the Lib Dems was just too generous) and three boroughs where I have gone for NOC against my competition prediction for Labour - Camden, Hounslow and Ealing. From what I have been hearing in the last couple of days, my worry is that Camden will flip all the way to LibDems and Ealing to Conservative.
I voted at 2100 and turn out was an astonishing 20% with postal votes on top of that. we are heading for e a record turn out since the poll tax elections.
who does this favour? I doubt labour.
The polls have closed and the Ave it exit polls forecast humiliation for Labour in london with significant labour losses elsewhere - 700 seats lost!
117, PP, I wasn’t agreeing that Labour will lose Haringey or Manchester, only that it would be a sign of ‘meltdown’ if they do.
Labour grapevine suggests horrid results in London balanced by only relatively minor ones outside (bear in mind the different comarator years, of course). I have mostly been in Abbey ward in Derby today, which we held by a couple of hundred last time. The Labour promises were coming out well, though interestingly there was a trickle of people saying they were going to give the Greens a protest vote. The Tories could well take Bassetlaw and I’ll be amazed if they lose Amber Valley, but I can’t see them taking anywhere else in our area, and I think we’ve seen off the BNP in Amber Valley. Labour’s lead of 1 seat in Derby (achieved in a by-eleciton by a majority of 11) seems unlikely to hold, but it should just go NOC. Labour in the Northwest also sound reasonably cheerful, with a few probable losses in Manchester but otherwise nothing special.
Tory Boy asked earlier about Merton. I honestly can’t hazard a guess, though if London generally is bad it can’t be too promising. I’d be sorry as a professional politician as well as a Labour man if we lost the Abbey ward there and the swing wasn’t less bad than elsewhere, since it would suggest that much of what parties do locally is wasted effort. I’ve never in 40 years seen such a well-organised Labour campaign as in that ward - excellent leaflets, enthusiastic and attractive candidates, three canvasses, dozens of helpers, and generally high morale. By contrast, I’ve been in another marginal place whose blushes I’ll spare (I’ve not mentioned it before as I was only there for two hours), who had no activity whatever a few days before the election, so I twisted their arms for canvass sheets and went out on my own! If both get similar swings it’ll be seriously irritating.
I think Elena is correct that the media story will be ‘Blair gets a bashing’ (more or less colourfully depenbding on the paper) and little else will get much coverage.
I also think that we’ll then have a reshuffle and move on. Newsnight rang me to ask how things were going. I said “The technical description is, ‘We’re bug*ered if we know’”. The interviewer giggled and went on to ask if I would want a change of leadership if it was bad. I said, “Of course not.” So I assume that’s their spin in preparation, and I’ll offer a small wager that my reply to the second question doesn’t get mentioned.
124 Haringey would be meldwon - Manchester would be fission!
120 seanT. Well as I voted Conservative in my ward, you are way off beam old chap.
125. Spinning to the last….
127. Jack W - does that make you an ‘occasional conformist’ like some of your supposed Jacobite ancestors?
125: Have to say I respect you for your consistently polite, restrained yet on-message posts. But given that the picture you paint is, shall we say, red rose tinted, then I fear for London Labour councillors tonight, if even *you* admit that it’s ‘horrid’.
Look forward to an honest assessment from you in 24 hours
128 - how so, that’s a pretty even on the record account from a member of parliament, you can take it or leave it, but I think Nick adds more to this forum than all the professional moaners on here/
Any idea how soon we get the ‘result’ of the exit polls? The tension is killing me!
129 Notts County. It means I rate the Tory candidate in my ward as a capable potential councillor, with clear Jacobite tendencies !!. Sadly he’ll lose to a unreconstruted Whig !!
Nick at 125 - Do you think that was wise?
Newsnight could honestly quote you as saying:“The technical description is, ‘We’re bug*ered’”.
Who cares about the “if we know” part?
127. Then you are the strangest Tory I’ve ever come across (and that’s saying something) given your strident attacks on almost everything the Conservatives stand for. Ah, but perhaps you are voting tactically…?
NickP. Yes, bad loss, quick reshuffle, move on. Fine. Except… I don’t think the electorate are going to let you move on, not this time. You gotta chop a few heads off to still their anger. Charles ‘oops I forgot about the terrorist’ Clarke seems like a good place to start. Just an idea.
132 - see 123 above. Latest projection 712 labour losses
132 Gladstone. No exit poll according to Robert Waller, confirmed by Beeb.
Ave it, my old mucker, where are you getting these projections??
135 seanT. That really is the pot calling the kettle black.
Because posters don’t accept your analysis doesn’t make them NuLab !
138 He hears voices…
There are rarely exit polls for local elections. It actually makes the thing much more interesting, as you see the results trickle in.
I’m shattered after knocking up from 10.30 am to 9.30 pm across one of London’s most mountainous wards, and I’m off to the count at twelve.
140 - doing well to hear anything at my age!
138 - detailed intellectual poll feelings across London and other places such as Bradford
139. Granted, of course, and I don’t wish to offend you if you aren’t New Labour. I can’t think of a viler insult, right now.
… but you have made statements of an ardently PC nature, IIRC, that puts you in a liberal-left NuLab kind of category, at least ideologically… no?
SeanF, I’d be shattered after ‘knocking up’ for eleven straight hours. A very virile achievement.
Just saw some worried Labour faces at Tower Hamlets.
Loads of Respect youths.
Smiling Tories.
What is the prediction?
According to the BBC,in view of the bad results expected tonight, the reshuffle is being bought forward to tomorrow instead of next Monday as expected.
They also mentioned that ‘Two Shags’ is going to keep his place in the cabinet,staggering!So clearly government ministers are above any behaviour codes and PC is used selectively in the Labour party.
On the other hand it could be handy to ensure the sleaze associated with New Labour is prolonged.
You mean you aren’t a five times a night man like our dear Leader?
141 Sean Fear. Good luck. And also to our other regular contributors/candidates who to a man and woman appear as worthy local representatives.
Especially so John O, whose on-line agent and advisor I am.
BBC flash site in full swing now.
143: Sean - you hardcore tories NEED to (ahem) get into bed with people of that persuasion to win a GE. Hence Cameron and all this bizarre ‘vote blue go green’ touchy-feely stuff - no?
1997 - 31% (nearly)
2001 - 31 and a bit%
2005 - 33%
2009 - say 41% needed for a majority - which means you need something a bit different wouldn’t you say? One more heave ain’t going to cut it I fear.
Im off to begin watching sky news coverage, despite my Tory leanings, good luck to everyone involved, especially if you are standing, regardless of your party.
146. Yup. Labour hanging on to these sleazy old timers and widely disliked incompetents such as Prescott, Clarke and Hewitt is akin to the Tories sticking to Redwood, Portillo, Lamont, et al. Big mistake. Labour are making a lot of big mistakes right now. Weird. The old machine just isn’t working properly. All the cogs are grinding and there’s steam coming out.
Like a robot that’s had treacle poured down its sockets.
143 seanT. I’m an economic and social liberal, so I don’t fit easily into any political party.
146. Good news. It’s about time Blair brought some of the exciting youthful talent on the backbenches into the Cabinet.
Just been speaking to one of my (few) Labour friends, who has spent much of the day at a Hammersmith polling station.
His one word view of Labour’s support today - “Desparate”
141 - Good luck Sean.
I’m going to wait and see until the actual results come in before making a judgement as to whether this is the Labour disaster or not as some are predicting tonight. I’ve been lead too many times down the garden path so I’ll be keeping my powder dry, for now.
I’ll stick to what I said a few days ago -
350+ losses is disastrous for labour
200+ gains is good for the conservatives
100+ gains is the lower end of expectations for lib dems.
Add to that lot the election of numerous independent councillors across the land as a result of the last few weeks with greens similarly pleased. The BNP will crow about a few key wins and UKIP will scratch heads as to why they can’t get a hang of this local election lark.
150. Maybe.. Fair point…. But you ignore the possibility that New Labour will simply implode, catastrophically, under the weight of their own ineptitude, corruption, and internal contradictions - then all the Tories will have to do is mop up the psephological gravy. A year ago that didn’t seem possible.
Doesn’t seem so far-fetched right now, does it?
Hope Everyone Enjoys tonight!
The BBC have already started declaring some council results!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2006/locals/map/html/map.stm
59 - Looks like a glitch in the BBC system there…..
150,
Think he would rather not get into bed with those types.
He doe`snt come across like Cameron as touchy and a feely type.
Impressions etc from 4 polling stations in 3 boroughs on the way home… Marylebone High Street ward (Westminster, ward is presumably safe Con), voting steady, Tory teller happily chatting away. Polling station in Primrose Hill (Camden Town with Primrose Hill ward, Lab v LD) - voting brisk, Lib Dem teller thought LDs could win Camden (over-optimistic?) or at least get to be largest party in NOC situation. St John’s Wood (presumed safe Con, Westminster), no voters to be seen. Finally to my own polling station in Mapesbury ward in Brent (part of the Brent East seat held by the LD’s Sarah Teather in the Commons). Mapesbury was a split ward in 2002 (2 Lab, 1 Con) - voting steady. Mapesbury must surely be a Tory clean sweep tonight - other Brent wards to watch are Welsh Harp (named after a local pub?), Fryent (Sean Fear standing here IIRC) and maybe also Dollis Hill. Labour will lose control if it loses 4 seats which I think must be very likely indeed. I think the Con gains in London - Bexley, Croydon, Hammersmith etc (& Merton?) must surely be “in the bag” - it will be very interesting to see how some of Labour’s very safe “firewall” wards vote - could they lose Camden & Haringey as well as Brent? Also, if the BNP had put up a full slate of candidates, could they have won Barking & Dagenham? - so why didn’t they?
134: Yes, that’s a point! Always best to say nothing, eh? But I expect they’ll get juicier quotes from elsewhere that don’t need creative editing.
JonC: thanks! Yes, I fear for them too. But we’ve all seen it coming for some time: what is essentially happening is that the London boroughs that last voted in 2002 are catching up with the position seen elsewhere in more recent elections. (Yep, that really is spin, but it’s also true.) Of course, if Labour has massive non-London losses that’s another matter, but I don’t think we wlil.
The first BBC result: Tories hold Runnymede! Gosh.
Ah, I see what they’ve done, just noted which councile cannot change hands.
60 No glitch they are councils such as Rotherham where even if Labour won no seats this year they will still have a majority .
Sky News: “London is the key battleground” - this is bound to be worse for Labour with the 2002 baseline.
161. No I’m not a touchy-feely type! A fairly hardcore Libertarian, eurosceptic, Thatcherite, royalist, romantic, free-trading patriot (though pro-NHS and state education)… A cross between the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Byron would be my ideal prime minister.
162. I thought Welsh Harp was named after the shape of the reservoir
Byron was liberal and pro-Europe surely?
159/60: The councils that the BBC is ‘declaring’ are those with 1/3 of seats up, where even if they all go to one party the result will not be affected (Runnymede’s seats could all go Labour tonight and it’d still be Tory-run).
Marylebone High St: yes, that’s the ward where I have my London flat. Result last time was IIRC a Tory vote of over 80%, so I think they’ll do OK tonight as well.
164 - Slightly surprised that its a total of only 10 to be honest… When is the f