Turnout - how low can it go?
May 4th, 2006
The Council House in Birmingham – the largest local authority being contested today
Unrepresentative bunch that we are here, we can get an inflated idea of the prominence elections have among the public in general. Quite a few posters here will have spent an intense month focusing on today’s local elections, but that puts us in quite a minority. Correspondents to The Times, who no doubt are serious and well informed people, seem to have been bypassed by the campaign. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats haven’t had particular success in planting a national message in voters’ heads, and the most exuberant national campaigning – Labour’s “Dave the Chameleon” broadcast – seems to be better loved by Tory activists than anyone else.
So the task of motivating voters comes down to the party activists who have been working very hard in battleground areas, where voters hear more about the elections from party leaflets and canvassers than from the media. But Labour footsoldiers must now be afraid their efforts will be in vain. If the local elections underwhelm the TV stations and the press, the same certainly can’t be said for Labour’s recent troubles. Home Secretary Charles Clarke is struggling through one of the bigger recent scandals about the failures of a government department. And the way that John Prescott is not so much attacked as ridiculed is reminiscent of the Major years when no misfortune of the Conservatives passed unnoticed.
Even electors who have been impressed by Labour on a local level will be in two minds about going out and casting a vote that could give Tony Blair renewed comfort in office. It looks like a lot of people will give the polling booth a miss today, and they’ll disproportionately be Labour supporters.
In the betting markets, the conventional bookies (some of whom will be fearing burnt fingers after opening their books with generous odds against a bad Labour performance in London) are cautious about offering bets on today’s results. However, you can get 4/7 from Paddy Power on Labour losing Tower Hamlets to Respect or to no overall control. Betfair has markets on a range of councils. Not all are very liquid but you can check the up-to-the-minute prices here.
The author is a Liberal Democrat activist in London. Mike Smithson returns at the weekend.
MessageSpace Advertising
I just voted in Barnet, North London, and the lady who gave me the ballot paper said that she was surprised how busy they had been this morning.
There was one lady taking the polling card numbers. She was from the Conservatives. Interesting, because normally the person taking the numbers is someone from the Labour Party. We don’t normally seen Tories. Still, makes a change, doesn’t it.
Turnout in 2003 was 33.7%.Don’t have figure for 2004.
With a good weather forecast for today would expect more people to “protest” rather than stay at home, plus more publicity on local elections so would expect an increase in turnout.
Please can an expert enlighten me on vote shares in 2002 locals.
The figures being quoted today in the Guardian are con 35%,Lab 32%,Lib dem 27%.
However I am sure these are Newsnight/ BBC estimates from 2002 and not the actual shares achieved, which would be in the Local Elections Handbook for 2002.
Roger Heape
Well delivering leaflets yesterday a colleague in a heavily contested ward in Lambeth (at least nine leaflets in the last week) was asked when the election was…
Thrasher & Rallings give the following numbers in Local Elections Handbook 2002:
All authorities:
Con 32.2
Lab 35.2
LD 23.7
Grn 2.7
London:
Con 34.2
Lab 34.1
LD 20.6
GRN 5.5
Metropolitan
Con 26.2
Lab 43.1
LD 23.3
Grn 1.9
Unitaries
Con 29.7
Lab 34.9
LD 27.2
Grn 1.5
Shires
Con 38.5
Lab 27
LD 25.4
Grn 1.8
Just voted in Islington. Judging by the lists of those taking down numbers (Labour and Lib Dem) busier than at this stage last year. Odd, but probably meaningless.
Does sunny weather still mean more people voting, or is that old-fashioned in the days of postal voting?
4. Very interesting figures. Thank You.
The 2002 figures for “All authorities” shows support for the main parties to be pretty similar to what they achieved at the subsequent General Election. (using Baxter’s figures)
2002 2005 Party
32.2 33.2 Con
35.2 36.2 Lab
23.7 22.7 LD
Turnout in my polling ward in Winchester district is slower than I can remember. Electorate 4,900. Turnout by 8am was 65 people across 4 polling stations. Normal final figure is between 45% and 60%.
Mind you its a nice day and people may just be taking their time.
With all this bad press for Labour and talk of how badly the Governing Party is going to do; could it not be the case that this could actually, in some perverse way, act to help Labour by stimulating the hard-core Labour vote to turn-out?
http://www.plymouth.ac.uk/pages/view.asp?page=7250 should give you your answers and keep you happy till these year’s results come in LOL .
The 2004 Metropolitan figures were
Con 25.9
Lab 32.6
LD 25.5
Grn 4.2
(source: Thrasher & Rallings 2004)
But the appropriate comparator is only 2002 in London, isn´t it? In most orher areas the seats up for election were fought in 2004 and weren’t they?
If I am right, the results are bound to look much less impressive for Labour in London than outside London.
11 replied to 2
The turnout was surprisingly very high this morning in Merton which I take as very good news for Labour along with what Chris said a number 5.
13. Bit early to start ramping, isn’t it?
Will there be breakdowns of how much of the turnout is postal ?
11 - Not quite Peter , Yes the mets were last fought in 2004 . The districts and Unitaries are a mixture with some last fought in 2002/2003/2004 and even 2005 . In Bristol for example some wards had elections in 2005 but others did not .
Interesting the talk of turnout - My wife and I voted about 8.30am this morning in our highly marginal (Vassell) ward in Lambeth - I was surprised at how busy the polling station was, it seemed much busier than at the GE last year when I voted at about the same time of day.
Interesting voting patterns from my wife too - 2 votes for the Lib Dems, and 1 vote for a Tory (”I know it’s meaningless in this ward, but it kinda sends a message to Cameron that he’s doing the right thing…”)
16 And how many voters in London, how many in the Mets and how may in others?
14 - Well you know me…
18 Refer you to my previous link in 9 which will give you pretty accurate answers to the first 2 and a near answer to the last .
I think the locals have had more coverage this year - “Labour is gonna get thumped” is a theme that few can have missed. Some respond by saying “Yeah, I wanna be part of it!”, others by rallying round. I’m not optimistic but we’ll see.
Sophia is not a ramper, she’s a nice but Tory pessimist. She disliked Roger Casale but was sure he’d be re-elected - alas, no. But to add to the entertainment I’ll reveal that the mega-canvass I reported on Tuesday was indeed in Merton, in the key 3-member Abbey ward which Labour held by margins as low as 60 last time. If we hold that and Colliers Wood we should hang on to the council. It was certainly the place that I’ve encountered most genuine interest in the election. Like everywhere else we were losing a few votes here and there but the candidates’ morale was upbeat, not least from the only one standing again, who said the number of canvassers was 25 times what she’d had throughout the last election (i.e. she’d fought it virtually on her own as it was seen as safe and the other candidates had other commitments). They’re fantastically well-organised, too. But I’m not making a prediction - really too dependent on turnout to call. Do you know my godmother Diana Harris, Sophia? - former Tory mayor of Wimbledon.
8. Palmers paradox alive and well? Are the last two weeks of negative healines a clever Labour ploy to bring out their core vote?
We should be told!
17 - Lennon is the constituency you live in a marginal itself? If not I wonder if it’s possible that the turnout in a highly marginal ward could be better than the turnout in that same ward if it’s part of a safe seat at a general election?
O/T - Saw your post on the other thread Peter and yes have been celebrating most of last night/this morning, it’s going to be a long, long day at work today!
I’m thinking of waiting for as long as possible… who knows how many more ministers can make idiots of themselves in the next 12 hours
?
“If Dave seemed particularly worked up at PMQs today, the blame lies
with a waggish bystander who tapped him on the shoulder as he was
waiting in a cycle lane during his highly enjoyable commute into
Westminster. The pedestrian told him his car was right behind him.
Dave, the Backbencher is told, sounded as though he’d heard the joke before.”
From the Guardian Backbencher.
Cameron seems to get worked up easily - That Sky interview, me asking him on his hustings if he failed to change the Conservative party would he join New Labour like his predecessor.
20 Thanks, Mark. Seems that one third of votes should be compared with 2004, one third with 2002 and one third with date unknown.
I don´t have any feeling that the turnout is gong to particularly low just at present - although this has not been my view through most of the camaign.
25. If it was in the backbencher … it must be true…
23 These things don´t come around every year, Max. Best to take full advantage when they do!
Good luck today GeorgeH and indeed everyone standing for a seat on their council.
Strangely quiet here in Torbay - we aren’t having local elections until next year.
What a contrast to last year when we had a total of six polling days (three by elections, a mayoral referendum, a mayoral vote and the GE).
I feel slightly detached from the process this time and able to be more rational as a result.
Comservatives obviously going to come out streets ahead!!
Here in Lincoln my understanding is that turn out is much higher in the five Conservative target wards than elsewhere which could prove a very interesting indicator.
The Guardian is not very good. Schoolboy errors!
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/localelections2006/story/0,,1747382,00.html
“Richmond-upon-Thames: Con 34, Lib Dems 19, Ind 1
The Liberal Democrats are gunning for this traditional Tory bastion, where Lib Dem high-flyer Susan Kramer won a parliamentary seat last May.
(The council has been Lib Dem or Alliance for 16 of the last 20 years, and both MPs have been Lib Dem since 1997. Is Kramer really flying high?)
Hammersmith and Fulham: Con 17, Lab 29
The Tories have set their sights on winning this inner London seat from Labour. Labour lost ground in the last round of elections but have since reclaimed one lost seat from the Tories in a byelection win.”
(It is not a seat, it is a council. In terms of Parliamentary seats, the Tories already hold the H&F, which forms part of the borough.)
Tower Hamlets is described as a “flagship” for Labour - why?
I accept poor editorial control in the Indy, as it is run off a tiny budget, and is otherwise a good newspaper. I cannot accept it in the Guardian.
Thanks Noorderling for exact figures.
There are two conclusions to be derived.
1.Predicted shares using 2002 actual v ICM Opinion polls
Act Locals ICM Apr 2002 Diff ICM Apr2006 ICM Pred Local
Con 32.2 29 +3 34 37
Lab 35.2 45 -10 32 22
LibDem 23.7 18 +6 24 29
Oth 8.9 8 +1 10 12
2.Likely BBC/Newsnight shares.
2002 BBC Var 1CM Apr 2002 ICM Apr 2006 Fcst BBC shares
Con 32 +3 34 37
Lab 35 -10 32 22
Lib 27 +9 24 33
Oth 6 -2 10 8
Thus if variations of Locals to ICM national opinion polls are the same as 2002 then BBC shares are likley to be
Con 36-37
Lib 32-33
Lab 22-23
Oth 8-9
and actual shares published later by Rallings and Thresher
37 Con
29 Lib
22 lab
12 oth
Roger Heape
I’m not active in Merton any more, but still take a healthy interest… I just cannot understand what has gone wrong there - by all accounts Labour will hang on this time, as our only gains will be in the marginal/split wards in Wimbledon where we lost by tiny majorities last time (I think one Tory in Dundonald missed out by one vote). We might not take Abbey or Longthornton which were the key targets this time around, and if we don’t then Labour remain in control.
Why is the Cameron message and Toryism in general just not resonating in the M&M half of Merton these days? Especially when we are making real inroads in neighbouring Tooting which is demographically not dissimilar for the most part? I just don’t understand it, nor have I ever understood the personal popularity of Siobhan McDonagh who has somehow turned a seat that was Tory until 1997 into one of Labour’s London strongholds.
32 - But there is no way to tell if the variations of local election results to ICM national opinion polls has stayed the same.
21 and 22 - unfortunately not Nick and yes I definitely think Palmer’s Paradox is at work today.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9d3d38e4-dac9-11da-aa09-0000779e2340.html
Interesting piece in the FT, backed up by an IPSOS MORI poll.
London bad for Labour, but Mets and shires to go better.
One snippet that I cannot resist (re 33) is
“satisfaction with the way David Cameron, the Conservative leader, is doing his job has fallen sharply in the past month.”
However I don’t think such findings tell us anyting interesting.
17: Here’s a stupid question: Have you got 3 wives or does she have 3 votes for some reason? I have only ever got 1 vote
37 - You vote for 3 councillors in your one ward
37 - all London councils have 3-member wards which elect all their councillors in the same year (i.e. this one).
Just so we dont feel left out this side of Offas dyke there is a by election in rural Pembrokeshire today. cannot remember the name of the ward but its a fight between the Tories, Plaid two independents and the Socialist Worker Party ….its a former independent seat.
Its in Preseli Pembroke and will be an intersting test of strength for the Tories….
33 Tory B interesting what you say about Merton… I know the betfair markets really aren’t very liquid, but the Tories are at 0.25/1 to take the council… and Labour were last traded at 20-1 to hang on…
38,39: Thanks. I haven’t got elections today (East Herts) as we only vote every 3 years, but i still only get 1 vote, guess i should be grateful as i’m only contributing to 1 bottomless pit unfunded final salary pension not 3 in return for sometimes getting my bins emptied
42 - unusual, most councils have 2- or 3-member wards even if they don’t already elect at once, so you vote 2 or 3 times in a 4-year cycle.
Councillors don’t get pensions, though. They receive allowances, but they aren’t employees.
[42] The local government pension scheme (unlike civil servants’) is fully funded.
33 - Tory B….Are you “Tory Boy” who is a regular poster and Hero of Blue Canvassing, First Class.
Up at sparrow’s fart for the 7.00am telling slot and turnout very sluggish.
BTW, I am not sure if it has been mentioned already, but having seen his magnificent challenge last night, do you think Boris should replace Rooney in the England squad?
34 Kieran -agreed but 1998 variations were not that far away Con nil,lab -8 lib +6,oth +2.
43. Councillors can join the Local Government Pension scheme, Council will contribute about 13% of sallary (allowances)
44 - yes, but that does not make it any cheaper in the long run. It still needs to be funded by the local authority. It is therefore a bottomless pit *funded* final salary pension scheme.
33 - M&M CLP? You do know it’s the home of Margaret McDonagh and an unusually high, even for London, number of current or former Labour HQ staffers? I think there’s a bit of defensive pride in ensuring that the local party is well organised!
Sorry dont see any paradoxs - Palmer’s or anyone elses. Would not be surprised if there is a low turnout but those (30% of the electorate) who think it is their civic duty to vote will turnout and apart from the Labour diehards will vote for anyone but Labour.
If there is a paradox it is perhaps that Party workers can get more enthusiastic (and convinced that they will do well) the worse the situation is. If there were deposits in locals Labour would have been in for an expensive evening - their vote is dropping below 10% in large swathes of the country. What all this means in seats we might as well wait and see.
41. None of the Betfair council markets seem to be reliable indicators, but Merton contradicts everything I’ve heard from the groundforce.
Current price for Labour is 5 which seems like very good value, and the Conservatives price is very short but maybe people closer to the situation know more than I do.
The only thing that stops me taking that 100 on Labour @ 4/1 is the possibility of NOC, which could happen if the LDs take Colliers Wood (and there are independents-ish who always win Merton Park easily). We should get more information later in the day.
36. The bit that caught my eye was
“Among Labour supporters, the number who expressed satisfaction with the government, 44 per cent of the total, was smaller than the number who expressed dissatisfaction, at 46 per cent. This makes a net reading of minus 2 per cent.
This net figure reflects a dramatic plunge in the government’s standing among Labour supporters in the past month.”
Wasn’t this what happened to Major’s government? i.e. It could not keep even a majority of its own supporters happy?
However TB will take comfort from the fact that he is still more popular than his party (even though he is less well-liked than he was).
I would have been interested if they had collected some data about the popularity of Gordon Brown. IIRC at the last GE they did, and found that people would have been more likely to vote Labour if Gordon was the leader.
53. I should have said “some in=depth data on Gordon Browns popularity”
I wouldn’t give up too soon, Tory B, but 20-1 against Labour to hold sound generous odds to me if you can get them. 3-1 with evens on NOC, I’d have said.
Sioabhan McD works hard and efficiently. It makes a difference.
Has anyone actually seen Gordon Brown for the last two weeks - should we be worried about him ?
Up this morning in Clerkenwell to vote IWCA, tellers from all parties except for the Greens outside the library.
48 - thanks, I stand corrected. When you say “the council will contribute”, do you mean the allowances are paid into the pension scheme rather than direct to the councillor?
46 - only if the rest of the squad’s wives are kept at home.
52 Most of the money has gone on the Tories anyway. There don’t seem to be many takers for Labour… Why not try and lay Conservative?
53 - I think it is clear that many Labour supporters are unhappy with the Labour govt - I am an unhappy Labour supporter myself! However, this does not mean that they will defect, as many will be hoping for a better Labour govt, and will certainly be fearful of a tory govt and will vote accordingly.
43: No pensions? Didn’t know that. 26% of ever increasing council tax goes on council workers pensions though - meanwhile my company has just closed its final salary scheme.
In all seriousness, i’ve generally been happy with local councils wherever i’ve lived , and have had experience of all 3 flavours plus a NOC I think. They all seem to ramp up council tax equally anyway. So good luck to those who put themselves up for public office, I think it’s only those near the top of the greasy pole (MPs and ministers) who deserve the bad rep of politicians, and not all of them of course.
I’m no fan of labour, but does anyone agree that there’s something a bit wrong with Labour being on the receiving end of a kicking based on national, not local issues? I remember 2 years ago the Lib Dems campaigning partly on being the only party against the Iraq war. Iraq?? Which ward is Baghdad in then?? Local issues matter - my Dad is a Tory member but campaigned for an independent friend of his one year as she was an excellent local candidate with a grasp of the relevant issues. (she lost…)
Must be gutting to be an excellent local Labour councillor (there must be a few) and to lose because of Prescott or Hewitt.
61 - “I’m no fan of labour, but does anyone agree that there’s something a bit wrong with Labour being on the receiving end of a kicking based on national, not local issues?”
On the other hand, which ward is David Cameron a councillor in? And yet Labour’s biggest splash in the campaign has been the chameleon ads.
[49] Maybe not, but it does make the liability calculable - and provide an incentive, if you like, for Councils of any colour or none to outsource functions and jobs (the staff transferring have their pensions protected but not new employees) - although even new civil servants only get defined contribution pensions as of this month.
Perhaps, SBS, your sympathies lie with the sometime Tory leader of a London borough (which shall be nameless, as they say) who, upon being made redundant himself, immediately demanded that the Chief Executive sack some Council workers to make him feel better!
In Reading, it is noticeable that the Tories, Greens and Lib Dems have campaigned this year, not always positively, on local issues.
Labour’s only local issue has been its part in Reading FC being promoted to the Premiership. Allowing a new stadium to be built 8 years ago is not a good reason to vote for them.
Unfortunately, if Labour lose all their seats this year in Reading (and there is no way they will), they will still control the council on mayor’s casting vote.
46. He certainly gave new meaning to “an entertaining game of football”!
55 - Nick, so you reckon 3/1 - e.g. you believe that, despite your helping hand, Labour will not hold on to overall control in Merton.
Presumably you think we’ll take all three in Abbey then?
60. It would have been nice for the FT survey to probe a little deeper into why the Governments own supporters feel unhappy. What exactly is it that is upsetting them? Is it still the Iraq war? Do they think that TB has been too bold in his education reforms? Not bold enough? Is it just the recent “scandals”?
I’m sure the Party has done it’s own investigations, because they are pretty smooth operators, whatever their detractors say.
As a floating voter myself, I know what does/does not attract me to each of the parties. I’d be interested in what people who think of themselves a normal Labour voters find a turn-off in their own party.
64 - and yet the Green website mentions nuclear power more often than anything local, as did several of the leaflets I’ve seen. Which council is it that sets the country’s policy on nuclear power stations?
For those of you who haven’t seen Boris Johnson’s rather uncoventional tackling from last night it’s available here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWIUp19bBoA
(Typical tory more comfortable with rugger that the working class artistry that is football ;-))
63 - pensions is a bit an obsession of mine, and in my opinion, a huge failure of all Governments over the last 30 years. Just about all legislation has made things worse, and worsened the public’s understanding. Don’t get me started.
No - I don’t feel sympathy for that Tory leader.
67 I hoped to find a bit more information on this survey - there should be some more to come.
Labour voters have moaned to me most about the loans for peerages issue (which cuts right across Labour’s traditional message). I wonder whether the later scandals do Labour a little less damage that that one did. (According to the NS it is coming back btw - hit my signaturue for the story).
I fully expect some sort of Cabinet reshuffle in the next week. May I be the first to repeat Thorpe’s immortal words on MacMillan “Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life.”
(Actually I’m not the first. It’s already been posted on the Daily Mail’s comments webpage today.)
71. Thanks. That IS an interesting piece of information, and the article is just about the right length (for those of you who ere wondering whether to bother clicking the link).
I’d almost forgotten the rumpus about cash-for-peerages. “A week in politcs. . .” etc.
60 - A complex question, but my guess is that for some, like myself, to quote Estelle Morris it’s the “direction of travel” in key social reforms such as the Education Bill and in the NHS. The content of those policies and the way in which they are presented and indeed, the levels of secrecy in announcing these policies to get them past a membership they know won’t like it. Clearly Iraq has deeply angered a lot of natural Labour voters. IIRC I have read studies that suggest Iraq has lost Labour around 3% of national vote share, almost all of which appeared to go straight to the lib dems. If Labour is win back these natural supporters is has to be able draw some kind of line under the Iraq war. It’s hard to see how that can be possible until TB stands down.
Finally, I would say that many Labourites are quite puritanical (myself NOT included in that one), and are unhappy with stuff like the lifestyle of the Blairs hanging out with silvio etc, the grace and favour apartments, the offshore mortgages etc. For those Labour supporters who like a bit of hairshirt I can see that Gordon Brown’s image will be quite popular.
Not scientific, but there you go.
Impression is that turnout is high- suspect that Tories are more motivated than usual.
74. Rather than disapproval of Blair’s lifestyle indicating ‘puritanism’, might it not rather reflect the feeling that the Blairs are very remote indeed from the lifestyles of ordinary voters?
74. Thanks for taking the trouble to explain the reasoning behind your dissatisfaction with the Government. I can agree with a lot of what you say. We should not forget though, that there are plenty of reasons to be dissatisfied with the other parties as well, and that - on balance - sometime you just have to hold your nose and place your ‘X’ against the least-worst option.
76 - the Camerons and the Campbells are not living on the breadline either. But when the luxury is funded by the taxpayer, or Labour members, or Silvio Berlusconi, it sticks in throats more.
76 - Wouldn’t disagree with that. It’s broadly the feeling that I get, that a section of Labour identifiers don’t like Labour leaders as you say whose lifestyle (indeed life values?) are so far removed from the people the party seeks to represent.
78 - Disagree. I think some Labour voters, and you may call them naive in this age of cynicism, expect Labour leaders to be qualitatively different to tories in their attitudes to such issues.
what is happening in FULHAM are the Tories winning
RE 69: That’s a great video clip there. I recommend that every PBer looks at it. I guarantee it will make you laugh. Funny though because Eton is a Football School rather than a Rugby one.
77 - Thanks, but for the record, these aren’t all my personal gripes, but my take on differing strands of discontentment.
80. Hmmm..I think a champagne lifestyle alone would be a problem, but I also tend strongly to agree with Book Value that hobnobbing with corrupt businessmen or obviously sponging off the taxpayer makes the picture even worse.
78, People of influence are often invited by other politicians, celebs etc, because they have influence. Thats why your unlikley to see old MIng being caught bronzing himself with Cliff.
81. Dont worry - a Tory landslide there is in the bag.
Worth a look: Blair’s 12 Worst Weeks
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,,1767074,00.html
Put’s the current troubles in perspective. I think the David Kelly week was THE worst week by far.
“Has anyone actually seen Gordon Brown for the last two weeks - should we be worried about him ? ”
yes, he was yesterday afternoon at a election rally in South London. He had a rally with Red Ken in Vauxhall too yesterday.
88. No solemn music yet, then.
88 - Gordon and Tony were in Merton which makes me more certain that they will get a very good result in the borough.
88. I suppose the costruction of my sentence is pretty bad…..
sorry
33
I wouldn’t worry too much just yet, it is possible that Merton may remain Labour, but a key thing to remember is that it’s very early in the day for a start, most people haven’t voted!
Early returns can be very misleading, I remember the shocking exit poll results I was seeing in the USA GE, Bush was said to be trailing by 20% in Pennslyvania, by 16% in Minnosota, 5% in Ohio, 5% in Florida and only just holding in Virginia! These results came through at 4pm US time, and I thought this is just impossible, it’s just too good to be true for the Democrat - guess what? It was, it was subsequently revealed that 60% of those in the excit poll canvass returns in Pennslyvania were women, who were much more likely to vote Democrat, many of them single mothers, these excit polls also weren’t weighted either.
It’s because of these bogus ‘exit’ polls which weren’t complete and leaked and spread like wildfire across the intenet, that Democrats become so bitter when they lost in the real votes, the truth? They had swallowed and become glee with delight that they had it in the bag, but how can it be when at 4pm there is still 6 more hours to vote? I’m sure in the USA as it is in the UK, those who work will vote after work, and usually, as it is in the USA, those who work are more likely to vote Tory verse those who don’t.
Merton could be a freak result ( - Labour could hold on) but it only requires a 4% swing, not very big, since I don’t live in the area, I won’t know, but I’d wait for the final results, instead of conceding it’s lost when not everyone has had a chance to vote.
90 - true, Labour must be well ahead if they can afford sending B&B to put off voters…
92 - you are wrong in presuming that “those who work are more likely to vote Tory than those who don’t”, and only reveal your own ignorance and prejudice. In fact the Tories are the most popular party among the unemployed.
93 - Well people who live in Mitcham and Morden are strange… Tony always seems to know to visit the place where they are going to get a result (against perceived wisdom) ala South Dorset.
The Invisible Chancellor has been doing his Dr Livingstone bit in Africa wasting more taxpayers money on expensive and badly targeted schemes. He believes, both at home and abroad, that throwing money at an problem will solve it. We have seen it in the NHS and we see it in his overseas aid extravaganza. He hasn’t got a clue ( He should listen to Nelson Mandela not just look for a photo op).
And the administration of the aid by Mr Benn and co has all the hallmarks of the tax credit scheme: complex, inefficient and tending to miss the target.
The percentage of aid spent on highly paid consultants is something else again.
[88] Just had a vision of Gordon and Ken driving a Vauxhall in the round Lambeth rally: “left…left…left..left.. oh b**gger!”
92 - you are wrong in presuming that “those who work are more likely to vote Tory than those who don’t”, and only reveal your own ignorance and prejudice. In fact the Tories are the most popular party among the unemployed.
Where can I place a spread bet on the final length of this thread?
[93] and when the Tories were beaten by Lord Sutch virtually everywhere, there was David Mellor, half blootered, ranting on about “the blue flag still flying over Wandsworth”. What price that B&B do the same if they do fluke a couple of saves?
Book Value will offer you a price, I am sure.
[101] I’m blowed if I’ll take his price, Peter
92
In the UK large numbers of those that work are on the government payroll. If they were more likely to vote Conservative the government wouldn’t be so keen to increase their numbers year on year.
95 - hang on, I used to live in M&M! Oh, wait…
The Tories didn’t really help themselves in South Dorset, so you could argue it was an own goal rather than Tony putting one in the back of the net for Labour.
98 - not sure about that, but then the Tories do have a significant vote among pensioners, who turn out strongly.
Re: Merton. I notice that the money available on betfair at 4/1 didn’t last too long.
Possibly the Labour machine manipulating the market here with the low price on the Tories?
Holding on fairly easily AND making a tidy profit from it would be a wet dream for some of the Merton Labour activists I’ve encountered over the years.
If only I’d remained registered in Merton, my votes would have made all the difference… or possibly not.
102 - you might find the thread suspiciously truncated if I had a financial interest in it.
105 - What is the betfair market on Merton now? Its nice to see I am keeping it local (as usual) for the locals.
M&M obviously has gone way downhill (is that possible?) since you left PB.
Just voted here in sunny Beckenham,steady stream of voters and a queue (at 11.20 am) to get a voting slip! Can’t remember that around here in previous local elections.
All the more curious since the result here is a forgone conclusion.
96. Governments always favour targetted schemes, you can’t get such clear “results” from small scale comprehensive development schemes, even though they are the best way of improving things on the ground.
While I think a lot of Labour’s aid policy is spin orientated and badly implemented, they have at least put it on the political agenda.
104. Jury still out, I think, on the cause of the South Dorset result. The Tory candidate certainly didn’t help, but the poor Tory performance can’t just be put down to that. Something more complex and probably demographic is going on as the rural part of the constituency did swing to the Tories, but the urban core (Weymouth) swung away. Note there were similar disappointing results in other seats dominated by down-at-heel seaside towns like Hastings, Waveney (Lowestoft) and Yarmouth. Regardless of all that, I don’t think the presence of TB made any difference.
40 - Cymrumark
Pembrokeshire is not independent territory - it is alleged that the ruling Independent Group (contradiction in terms??) are all closet tories - in the 04 elections only one of 60 seats had a Tory candidate yet they won the 05 GE seat
Strange eh??
03 would this include the masses of labour voters in the police and armed services ?
58.Yes the council pays into the fund as it does for any other employee, the ammount is a percentage of the employees (or councillors) wage (or allowance) depending on how the actuary views the pension funds value and potential liability. typically around 12 - 16%. Typical councillors allowance runs out at about £5000 so the tax payer would be contribting about £750 a year.
As a significant proportion of coluncillors are over retirement age there arent all that many who actually qualify for or join the pension schemes.
109. Good, that justifies all the wasted money then.
113 - thanks.
I have suddenly decided this morning that I have been wrong about the result all week; when I have been saying that stories of Labour melt down have been ovedone and they may lose ‘only’ another 200 seats.
If the stories circulating on here and elsewhere of brisker than usual turnout are true then Labour could be in for a shock.
I now think that Labour are going to be solidly humiliated, losing 4-500 seats and being expelled from huge chunks of inner city Britain and matching the 1968 LE landslide against them.
105 - Quote: “Re: Merton. I notice that the money available on betfair at 4/1 didn’t last too long…Possibly the Labour machine manipulating the market here with the low price on the Tories? ”
Now, how to respond to such posts. Firstly, is this sarcastic humour, or does this person actually mean this. Apologies if I have missed some “humour”.
Can the owner of this claim please clarify?
107 - more activity in the Merton betfair market now. Small change available at 3/1
Declaration of interest: I have backed Labour heavily elsewhere at 7/1 and will probably offset some of that on Betfair as the Labour price comes down, although I’m also hedging against Labour winning - e.g. if I lose money the end of 16 years of Labour rule will be a nice consolation.
I’m finding like the 10/1 odds on the LDs in Tower Hamlets fairly tempting right now, and might invest there.
116 - Alternatively it could be the Labour voters have been motivated to go out and vote, not wanting the predicted bad results in the media. I have always been led to believe that high turnout favours Labour.
117 - yeah, it was a sarcastic in-joke.
You can probably tell I don’t like Merton Labour very much. Their uber-loyalism and control-freakery is like an eerie microcosm of the Blair govnerment as a whole.
It’s the way they express surprise that anyone could ever possibly consider not being a staunch supporter of the local party that grates the most.
am waiting to see what happens in southwark today. need to go and vote apres work.
i thought this website was interesting - lambeth council online hustings
http://www.electionmemory.com/
Tristoph They are not targeted scheme but what the trade calls budgetary support, something that was dropped as inefficient and prone to corruption in the early 70’s.
What they have put on the agenda is the misleading idea that money solves problems. More money for Africa will make poverty history. Bunkum.It doesn’t. It often means the recipient government can carry on with its daft economic policies, or buying weapons or propping up murderous dictators.
Money may be a vital component but whether it be development aid or peace keeping, it is not the first need.
Wasting taxpayers money is a good way of making overseas aid unpopular.
119. Bit of a simplistic argument. It didn’t help them in the 1992 GE. But we’ll see.
104/107 - so where in lovely M&M did/do you guys live?
And might I ask why?
Mitcham is possibly the strangest place in Greater London. It just doesn’t seem to really fit in at all. In one sense it’s quite remote and villagey, but all the surrounding estates contribute a substatial population that cannot be considered cultured or middle-class by any stretch. Unlike similar areas it’s less ethnically-mixed (and somewhat racist), more like outer East london than South.
Colliers Wood, Merton and Morden are all just standard continuation of suburbia down the Northern line, however.
[122] But all your taxes are wasted, B2W, surely, by Labour governments and councils - or are Hillingdon Conservatives wrong (it was on Guido’s site, you’ve seen it) to suggest that the Tories have a monopoly on efficiency?
124 - I used to live on Warren Road in Colliers Wood.
Why? Nice shared house and garden for an economical rent, though the daily trip on the Northern Line was a pain.
116/119/123 - The traditional argument has always been good weather = higher turnout = better result for Labour, but I’m bound to say I’ve never really seen any evidence of it making much difference.
124 - I live in lovely Wimbledon (which is lovely compared to M&M - they always bring us down when it comes to the council). Mitcham is weird (in every sense of the word). Morden has been on a continual downward spiral in the last 10 to 15 years. Colliers Wood on the other hand, is definitely, “up and coming”.
[127] The 1992 General was a beautiful day and against predictions John Major won outright- Marcus @ 116 might be right
119/123
The labour vote is notorious for having a significant part of it that is weakly motivated. More people tend to say they will vote labour or support it than actualy vote labour( and opposite seems true for the Conservative vote)- hence the need for weighting in opinion polls etc.
Broadly sppeaking my understanding is that while a higher turnout would be likely to increase the Labour vote, the labour vote is also more influenced by the morale/organisation of local acivists ( turning those weak promises into solid votes).
This section of the lab vote tends to stay at home rather than vote for anyone else .
Talking about Merton Council, they seem to have the most insane policy on roads. It is virtually impossible to park anywhere near Wimbledon apart from their extortionate car parks unless you have a Residents Permit. They even do roads 10-15 minutes walk from the Town Centre/Village. I once nearly got ticketed when my car was parked in front of my friends drive with his permission. They also seem to have the most ticket hungry wardens in London as well, some achievement I think. Sorry Rant Over.
Sky “breaking news” (well, they’ve breaking news for everything):
Plaid Cymru is accusing Hain to have offered a peerage to Peter Law
Oh don’t get me started on Merton’s roads.
The area where my mum lives (Graveney Ward, no chance in hell for us there) is all speedbumps and pointless one-way streets, and roundabouts that are too small to actually drive round, and sticky-out bits of pavement…
I would hope that if we take control of the council today we’ll take a leaf from the book of Barnet, and start to reverse some of these ‘improvements’ where it is inexpensive to do so.
132: Have they got any evidence? In an earlier letter to the Tories, Perma-tan man stated his innocence in the strongest terms.
94
Ignorant? Me? Never! What evidence have you got for your statement that those who are unemployed tend to vote more for the Tories? (Maybe your quoting me some wonderfully useless MORI Opinion Polls, about as hapless at predicting general elections as you get). I will bet you ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY that that the seats with the highest levels of employment are held mostly by the Conservative party. I bet the top 50 seats with the highest unemployment (usually defined as those seeking jobseekers allowance plus various disability allowances/N.B those between 18 and 65 only) are mostly held by Labour.
It’s not relevant if more people now work for the government than in the past - 60% still work in the private sector, which is a majority.
The early canvass returns (exit polls) in the USA for their GE missed out all those people who voted for Bush in the evening (mostly those returning from work, predominantly men, a solid Republican base) so subsequently, a Kerry lead of 5% in Florida was in fact discovered to be a real 5% Bush lead in the actual votes, and same for a number of states, the lead of 20% for Kerry in Pennsylvania was totally bogus, Bush lost by 1.5%.
I think the confusion is in the way you classify ‘unemployed’, pensioners arn’t employed or unemployed, they are retired and therefore not relevant to the figures, you look solely at those of working age, for the relevant sex, so 18 to 65 for men and 18 to 60 for woman, and use those figures of employment and unemployment, otherwise your results are skewed and you end up sounding like an ignoramous, because you haven’t balanced (i.e used the data correctly) your evidence correctly.
114. To be fair (and I am no fan of the government), other countries, the UN, EU, WHO and World Bank also have a tendency of acting in a similar way, albeit to varying degrees.
And to be honest we are talking very small amounts of money in global terms (immigrant workers in the UK send back to their countries several times what we give in aid).
Now its on the political agenda perhaps one of the parties will develop a less wasteful, more effective policy of aid.
122. To make poverty history in Africa we need to develop the internal capacity for receit of aid, develop infrastructure and internal markets. All require increased investment.
What needs to be done is to ensure that investment actually reaches the areas that its needed; so tie aid to tackling corruption, not to complete liberalising of markets.
As for the dictator problem, many African leaders are now (sort of) elected. The problem is again corruption throughout the poltical system. A lot of this money washing round the African corruption circuit comes non-governmental investors.
We can help solve the arms problem by restricting the sale of small arms yet further, and trying to reduce internal arms sales and movement in Africa.
Luke M (92) It’s as we thought the US election was fiddled - Bush votes were clearly added later as needed!
I think Marcus is correct (116) Though the opposition didnt seem to lay a glove on Clarke yesterday the papers can see what a mess the Home office is in and are keeping up the pressure. Bringing in new illiberal laws which will make life difficult for honest citizens but not touch the criminals is just rubbish.
The double whammy of Prescott and Clarke will really hurt Labour at the locals - whether Blair will try and ride it out, I dont know - the papers do get bored easily and the footy is coming, but may be not soon enough!
137. I can just imagine Blair trying to muscle in on the glory if England do well in the World Cup…
135. “I will bet you ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY that that the seats with the highest levels of employment are held mostly by the Conservative party. I bet the top 50 seats with the highest unemployment (usually defined as those seeking jobseekers allowance plus various disability allowances/N.B those between 18 and 65 only) are mostly held by Labour. ”
top 10 constituencies (at last year’s GE) with the highest unemployment:
1) Birmingham Ladywood
Bethnal Green and Bow
2) Birmingham Sparkbrook
3) Liverpool Riverside
4) Birmingham Hodge Hill
5) Tottenham
6) Manchester Central
7) Camberwell and Peckham
9) Leeds Central
10) Hackney South
All Labour (apart Gorgeous George) and usually with a big LD improvement last year
Just a quick point to clarify on my @ 135, you also need to guard against an unsually above average number of pensioners in those top 50/bottom 50 seats, because that also would skew the evidence too!
39 Andrea and those with the highest level of employment?
Good work Andrea.
136. Very reassuring. What we need is a total transformation of the political culture that has dragged Africa down for the last forty years, otherwise money will be wasted. And the way to do this is…to spend more money. Get a grip - more free money will entrench the existing political culture, not change it. GB’s Aid to Africa crusade is gesture politics of the worst kind.
60% of people vote between 5pm and 8pm
141. commentator, the unemployment figures by constituency are published monthly as part of a Parliament Research Paper.
Here’s the march figures (the top has changed compared to last year):
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-021.pdf
The top 10 seats with the lowest level of unenployment is:
1) Woodspring (Con)
Henley (Con)
2) Mole Valley (Con)
3) Westmorland and Lonsdale (LD)
4) Gordon (LD)
5) Witney (Con)
6) Salinsbury (Con)
7) West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine (LD)
9) Buckingham (Con)
10) NE Hampshire (Con)
134. It seems it’s just Elfyn Llwyd making the allegation in the Commons
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/4972344.stm
How do people think indiependents will do this year ? We’ve got one standing in our (Huddersfield) ward, campaigning against the migration of key hospital services from Huddersfield to Halifax. I might be completely wrong about this but I reckon she’s going to win. Independents are often portrayed as holding potential for voters who are completely hacked off with the three main parties, and as, quite frankly, I’ve seen nothing in the past few months that might reduce that level of hacked-offness in the country, I’m thinking that Indepedents might do pretty well.
Does anyone know when we will get an accurate figure for voter turnout?
129: Cicero: “The 1992 General was a beautiful day and against predictions John Major won outright- Marcus @ 116 might be right”
I well remember Kinnock’s sounbite for the media when he cast he vote that day: “It’s a beautiful day - the sun’s out, and so are the Tories”.
Oh we how laughed.
Unfortunately for him, I think he actually believed it…
grrr - “soundbite”; “his”; “oh how we laughed”
you know what i meant..
147 - was it the sun wot won it?
Eight out of ten top constituencies Tory, 10 out of 10 bottom councils Labour. Says it all really.
Thank you for the research Andrea.
147. Unfortunately for you, it could have been better (for you) in the long term if he was right!
make that constituencies. But I bet it’s the same with councils!
151: understatement of the year! Would have been a disaster for Britain though. How would Kinnock and Smith have dealt with Black Wednesday mewonders…?
53. Blamed it on Thatcher I would think…
150. commentator, 7 out 10 top constituencies are tory….or has one of those 3 LDs defected?!!
152. many of them are Birmingham seats and the council is run by Con/LD…..
Interest rates unchanged again.
One day the B of E will do something on the day of an election and cause real problems!
No belay that - The Bank of England never do anything.
I lost a pile of money on election day 2001 when everything showed a very low turnout which I concluded would be bad for Labour.
Memo. Don’t bet on election day. Advice I did not take in 2005 when I was getting great reports about rhe Lib Dems.
Took my own advice on the Dunfermline day and missed out on a packet on the Lib Dems.
Mike Smithson
[150] Lies, Damn lies and statistics- 7, not 8 out of 10- so, given the relative sizes of the parties, it is actually the Lib Dems then who are most entitled to take Luke M’s money
154. They would probably have wanted to bring back exchange controls!
135. Interesting point about working people voting for Bush. Prompted by a post on liberal review the other day about voting hours in the USA I made a quick back of the envelope calculation that showed:
(excluding 5 states with variable opening times, all of wh