BBC projection puts the Tories on 40%
May 5th, 2006New thread 0430
The BBC projection of the national vote share based on yesterday puts the Tories in their best position since before the ERM crisis in 1992.
The shares are: CON 40: LAB 26: LD 27 .
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Just got back, the birds are singing, slightly tipsy and somehow have to get some sleep before work tomorrow, or rather today.
I think 40% is an excellent achievement for us. I’ve been arguing for the last week that this wasn’t going to be a huge Labour meltdown but reaching the 40% mark would be critical for Cameron. He’s passed that test and it’s all go from here.
Am also delighted that Labour have lost control of Camden (assuming that did happen and I’m not halucinating by now).
BBC have been reporting this as their best result since 1997, not 1992.
re 3. I took that from the BBC. And they certainly did not do better in 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996.
Mike Smithson
Bullseye appears to have lost, BTW, which is sad.
Are the final gain/loss figures in yet and if not when will they be? And what are they?
Friday afternoon, at the earliest.
Thanks and what are the current figures?
Lab -234, Con +234, LD +1, Others -12.
Apologies - the Consertives are up 247.
Great for the Tories, dreadful for Labour, worse for the Liberals given expectations.
We got carried away talking of 600 Labour losses, you can disappear inside the bubble and forget they have a 25% core vote. But vote share of 40-26-27 or whatever is just fantastic for the Tories. I can’t work out what happened to the LibDems. Surely will shorten Ming’s tenure?
#9, with the Friday results expected, is there a chance we will hit 250? Thank you for the info so early after a long night, btw.
Hi. I’m looking for a site which lists the full count for a specific ward: Shaftesbury Ward in Wandsworth. Anyone know a good place to look? I’ve trawled through google, bbc, wandsworth sites, but either it’s non-existant, very hidden, or I’m an idiot. Cheers.
What a shame that the Lib Dems, who have puffed themselves up so much on this site in the last week, have done so poorly.
12 - Here you are
Try again: Here
14 - Thank you!
what’s happening in Tower Hamlets? Why haven’t they finish to count yet after so many hours?
In Tower Hamlets 5 wards are still to be declared. The seats result is so far:
Labour 17 seats
Respect 11 seats
Con 7 seats
LD 1 seat
Lots of split wards 7 out 12 so far)
Brent goes from Labour to NOC. No word yet on the swing.
Does anyone know what the turnout for the country is - if higher than last time then it suggests that Cons are actually managing to convert people rather than just get the vote out (as happened in the early years of Labour Govt)
Congratulations to the Tories… they have done well tonight I must say.
Indeed - and disappointing for us all in all.
Thanks all for a prodigiously long thread last night. I myself was staring at ballot papers for most of it and expounding on the difference between “a clear mark” and “the clear intent of the voter”.
Frank Dobson was really scathing about Blair when he was interviewed last night and saying it was he who has destroyed the Labour Party with activists leaving left right and centre. He wants Blair to go now.
Brent swing:
+16 to LD
-13 Labour
-3 Tories
London’s been very anti-Labour, but also quite unpredictable.
BBC national projection: Con 40 Lab 26 Lib Dem 27 Others 7
Local vs General projection: Con 36 Lab 38 Lib Dem 21 Others 5
Overall, these are pleasingly poor results for the Lib Dems. I should add that I made a killing by betting on them to take control of Richmond at absurdly generous odds.
I find dislike helps for taking an objective view of parties’ prospects. There’s some useful info on this site, but really, the unending partisan comments hack me off and increase the noise to info ratio to unfavourable levels. It’s supposed to be a betting site.
Very good night for the Tories, in spite of Richmond and one or two others. Pressure on Ming to hand over to someone more telegenic and media savvy prior to 2010? Better than expected for Labour? Making some headway against LD’s outside London in urban areas?
First glance based on 2004, Cons up 2%, Labour and Lib Dems little or no movement.
Headline figures the gains, and the Cons clearly stand out and they should get some extra forward thrust from those.
What not clear yet is what are the differences in the movements from 2002 and 2004 to this year, both in percentage and seat terms. No doubt someone will do that.
Labour have worked this well and can say not as bad as some prophets said it would be.
Most seat movement appears in the south, north much more steady on the 2004 model.
Will Norwich be the first Green Council in say 4 years?
Whoops!
Of course no-one could accuse Dave Cameron of telling a lie, but it’s alarming when his knee-jerk reaction to a difficult question is a provable untruth and his interviewer lets him get away with it.
Given the 7.35 slot on the Today Programme, his claim that the Conservatives had gained seats from the Liberal Democrats was knocked back by his interviewer, who asked him why, then, the Liberal Democrats had taken Richmond Council straight from the Tories. Dave answered by saying the Conservatives had forced Lib Dem councils Kingston and Sutton to no overall control.
Sounded good on top of a good night for the Tories, but some examples that were true might have helped his case more.
Kingston-Upon-Thames – Lib Dem hold http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2006/locals/html/ax.stm
Sutton – Lib Dem hold http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2006/locals/html/bf.stm
So was the wish father to the thought, was he misinformed, or did he calculate that his interviewer wouldn’t know all the figures and couldn’t expose his claims? Why didn’t that interviewer do their job and call him to account on just saying the first ‘fact’ that comes into their head, without doing anything as ungainly as making sure it was true?
I’d not hold my breath for the programme broadcasting a correction.
anyone know where I can get a ward by ward breakdown of Lambeth results - the coucil website is particularly poor (last updated 24th march
)
Can anyone tell me if it’s possible to bet on Labour cancelling the 2007 local elections?
Re 29:
http://www.lambeth.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D0E72067-F98F-40DB-9798-E52330ADFAAA/0/LambethElectionResults2006.pdf
[28] This is not the first time DC has made such a convenient balls up- I sometimes think that he has a bit of a glass jaw that one day an interviewer is going to smash…