Has Lucky Tony done enough to stay a bit longer?
May 5th, 2006- Is the Cabinet re-shuffle enough?
With breathtaking timing Lucky Tony has managed to dillute the bad overnight election news with his cabinet re-shuffle.
From a situation where all the focus would be on yesterday’s 3rd place on votes and nearly 300 seat losses the bulletins tonight are mostly about his changes.
- But will this be enough to calm his party critics and allow Lucky Tony to complete most of his third term?
Like him or loathe him you have to concede that Lucky is an extraordinary politician. The way he performed on Wednesday to defuse the deportation row was stunning and how his enemies within his party must despair.
If a formal move to unseat him is made Lucky, surely, will defeat it?
My big regret this week is not getting onto the 1/2 that was available on him surviving until July.
Mike Smithson
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The reshuffle looks less and less impressive…..distinct lack of new talent and Brownites are coming out in the open and saying go now…..this night was the last high point of the Blair regime….he reshuffled, because he can, for now.
When will Brown strike?
If it wasn’t for this site I probably wouldn’t have been aware of the generous odds available from SportingOdds last week, or I would have found out too late. As it is I now have a decent four-figure profit.
Thanks to Mike and Robert for creating and hosting this forum, to ‘book value’, Sean Fear and ‘Double Carpet’ for their contributions and to learned commentators Robert Waller and Lewis Baston for sharing their expertise.
Balls appointed as economic secretary to the treasure
Hodge moved to Trade and Industry department
What has the “lucky” thing to do with losing 300 seats and make a reshuffle after it?
Ah, I’m not even sure about the “bury bad news with reshuffle” thing. Yes, it buried them in a sort of way, but the story seems to be “Labour did bad, Blair tries to act”.
The reshuffle could be portrayed as a consequences of the losses (so keeping them in the news)
Good to see you on message with “Lucky Tony”, Mike
Hope you enjoyed Loch Lomond. Shame you missed the 1/2 odds, but the maximum stake was £300ish so real killings weren’t on offer.
With Newham still to declare:
Con +299
Lab -306
Lib Dem +3
Others +1
National Projected Vote Share: Con 40% Lib Dem 27% Lab 26% Others 7%
Adjusted for Local vs General: Lab 38% (+2%) Con 36% (+3%) Lib Dem 21% (-2%) Others 5% (-3%)
My summary: Lab hammered, Con gains, Lib Dems steady as they go.
The reshuffle looks like a panic measure.
I saw that book value advised that Paddy Power made a market on TB remaining in post until 1 July 2006. My allowed maximum was £200 at 1-3, so you missed very little, Mike.
Harry what is interesting is that by the rough numbers almost all Lab losses converted straight to Tory victories (we are talking net). The collapse of the LibDems as an alternative to labour is, in my view, the story of the night.
Mike, I yield to nobody (except perhaps you) in my admiration for Blair the politician, but come off it. Any reshuffle always leads the news. The papers and opinion makers know what happened here. And Gordo must be aware, that, as Stewart Jackson pointed out on a previous thread, with Reid’s promotion the good ship PM is slipping across the horizon…
Reid knows he is finished under Brown. He will not give a monkey’s. He will throw his hat into the ring. Brown is useless. It is all over for Gordo. He never had the guts, and thus will never get the glory.
Re the Luck Tony thing.
Why not wait and see what the weekend press make of it all. If the Labour Party settles down, there aren’t any Brownites calling for TB to go and there are no more horrible revelations about any of the surviving cabinet members (or any of the new ones) then ‘Lucky’ Tone may have scraped by yet again for the time being.
On the other hand an arrest or two over peers for cash, postal vote fraud or even something completely unforseen and new (and lets face it the papers must be working overtime for the next big Lab Sleaze scoop) then I think Blair may be in terminal decline precisely because his reshuffle was so dramatic.
The BBC website is now showing Conservative gains of 317 with labour losses of the same amount. Good to see the Tories have broken through that 300 mark. Where have these come from since Newham still hasn’t been declared?
Very difficult to avoid laughing at this reshuffle. It’s looking like the only reason Clarke wasn’t sacked last week was so that Blair could move him but keep him in the cabinet - an elaborate plan that went wrong when Clarke rejected another post. Prescott keeping all the trappings and salary of office with no actual job is a gift to the opposition. Beckett’s been moved to the foreign office in the hope of filling a small portion of the newspapers with “the first female foreign sec”…
11 - As pointed out before the BBC has “declared” seats before the actual full results are known.
9 - Your logic seems to suggest that Reid would beat Brown. I think not.
Where can i get the PA’s real time results page and is there anywhere other than the BBC.
RE 11: Greenwich and Havering where the Tories have picked up seats. Only Newham left to declare.
The Newham results are starting to come through. Three CPA in Canning Town South, 27 Labour so far.
Tories now at 317 gains!
Reid would beat Brown. A Blairite would beat Brown.
Now I like Margaret Beckett. I think she’s a good politician. I’m less impressed by her gradual shift from old Labour leftie to hardcore Blairite, but I admire the subtlety of this shift. I don’t think she’s done the best job in her environment post, however.
My main sticking point is even comprehending why she should get the FO brief. I don’t believe she’s up to the job. That said, I understand why Blair’s done it; Beckett is hardly going to object to anything he does or says anymore. Still, it smacks of desperation and in my eyes it’s not a good move.
Re the BBC… Not quite sure what figures they are including… They have Birmingham’s result up, but don’t link it to the map. There area few other assorted council that they don’t have figures for besides the London boroughs mentioned…
For the LDs, moderate gains in the NW are being wiped out by their losses in London… Worringly for the party they also failed to make progress in the SW councils…
If Labour want to be annhilated at the next election then pick Reid by all means. I can see Tories the length and breadth of the UK salivating at the prospect of taking him on….
18. Commentator, are you so scared by Brown that you’ve to bash him in every post?
Politicial History in Wakefield . First ever Asian Councillor elected. Also end of Norman Hazells politicial career (councillor since 1972) and the need to elect a new deputy mayor (who lost his seat).
CPA in Canning Town South - how come? Is there a monastery/convent there or something?
Re 20- Failing to take Bristol must be a major blow to the LDs in the SW. They were very bullish beforehand.
The only note of caution I would inject is that the Conservatives had to work exceptionally hard in the SW to make those limited (but well deserved) gains last night and therefore most of the Ld activists will still be around for the few SW unitaries up next year.
Reid is a very effective New Labour Fixer. He goes into dodgy departments and steadies the ship. However I have yet to see actually try to reform anything. Brown on the other hand is a substantial performer who has reformed a lot in the Treasury (even though I would disagree with much of it such as tax credits). Reid would get thrashed out of sight in a contest with Brown.
6. Harry Hayfield
What is your source for those “Adjusted for Local vs General” figures? … and what does that mean? If they mean what I think they mean then your analysis is totally wrong: it is the LibDems who have had a “hammering”.
Newham - Respect have gained 3 in Green Street West. Only Forest Gate South to come, which could conceivably be close between Labour and Respect, but Labour hold most likely. Looks like it will be Lab 51-54 CPA 3 Respect 3-6.
Given the poor LD showing in Winchester, mightn’t Mark Oaten consider defecting to the Tories?
Please!
16. 3 Respect in Green Street West too.
Just a ward to declare now
The Tory result in Tower Hamlets is f*cking amazing.
Did anyone see those gains coming?
How did they do it? Is the electorate gentrifying?
29. He has already been blamed for the losses.
I see The Fugitive (aka your former MP, BSB) is not satisfied by Reading results.
Re 27: Please see my articles on local by-elections
18 - a blairite would beat brown…under which electorate? Reid or milburn wouldn’t stand an earthly in a poll of lab members against brown. Reid is also the architect of the current NHS problems, a campaign would expose him badly.
Up until now my attitude since last night has been “not in front of the neighbours”…but here goes…last night was very poor for Labour…and it was poor for “unremittingly” Blairite reasons. Blair really can’t blame anyone else in the wider Labour movement for the trouble the party now finds itself in. It is Blair who must now change his leadership style and change key policies.
For tactical reasons I think blair should probably hang around a bit longer, but, he should not be allowed to scorch any more electoral earth for the party. (have we got any angry icons?!)
could someone explain what’s Ian McCartney job now?!
More junior appointments (other than Hodge and Balls):
Parliamentary secretary for social exclusion Pat McFadden
Parliamentary secretary at Cabinet Office Ed Miliband
Minister of State at Home Office Liam Byrne (replaces Hazel Blears)
Work minister Jim Murphy
Pensions minister James Purnell
Health minister Andy Burnham
Meg Munn gets a salary as minister for women
Junior ministers out:
Jane Kennedy
Alun Michael
Elliot Morley
Lord Bach
Fiona McTaggart
Don Touhig
OK Lets try and have a reasonably impartial look at the results especially against the parties expectations over the last 6 months . Firstly BNP ( sadly ) Greens and Respect will be reasonably happy with their results .
Labour 6 months ago would have been looking to get some gains in the Mets to recover from the bad showing in 2004 but be rather more concerned about London . With the Lib Dem travails in the early part of the year they would have become much more upbeat to have most hopes dashed by the crises of the last 2 weeks so much that many of them would have been worried of a meltdown . The actual results were not as bad as feared but probably not as good as they hoped earlier in the year . They probably think that with the reshuffle they can look on this as a low point .
Conservatives 6 months ago under their new leader would have been quietly bullish and with the Lib Dem problems were thinking of widespread gains . The last 2 weeks probably raised hopes to fever pitch . Their performance is certainly acceptable but they ought to be a bit worried about Labour’s resilience and that their best results are coming mostly in their heartland seats .
Lib Dems 6 months ago were expecting a struggle to hold on to their 2004 gains in the Mets but expecting progress in London . With the leadership and other problems things looked rather bleaker but the Labour problems raised expectations to unrealistic levels . Having said that their result in the Mets is almost on a par with 2004 which was their best ever . London results were not as good as hoped but still had some bright spots .
Overall something positive for all the parties , a bit more for the Conservatives but not as much as some would seem to think and a caveat that states what I have said before - Gaining control of a council is these days a poisoned chalice with too little power to get positive things done to counteract the blame for not doing what is not in your control anyway .
35 - Junior ministers out:
Jane Kennedy
Alun Michael
Elliot Morley
Lord Bach
Fiona McTaggart
Don Touhig
I would recommended the alternative education white paper group in the PLP make quick contact with some of these names, perhaps some potential new education rebels??
Oh, I am glad. The Lib Dems ended the day on a net gain of 2 seats. Was a little worried about them picking up just the 1.
Mark Senior - The Conservatives only winning in their heartlands?
We took a seat from the Lib Dems in Pendle, we took another seat in Burnley, we retook Chorley council, we took Ealing council, we took Hammersmith council for the first time since 1968, we nearly took Sutton.
Yes there is a long way to go and taking the odd seat up north is not good enough - but you cannot build a base in 6 months.
Its a solid start.
It seems Labour was surprised by the Islington result:
http://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/content/islington/gazette/news/story.aspx?brand=ISLGOnline&category=news&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsislg&itemid=WeED05%20May%202006%2015%3A43%3A32%3A510
(btw, disappointed to see Corbyn wasn’t wearing his infamous red jacket at the count!)
Steve Hitchins, the leader of the council, lost his seat. Bridget Fox lost too. She was in tears when the result was declared.
39 - I did not say only winning in their heartlands , I did say that their best results were in their heartlands - and for every seat gained in the North another was lost in another council ( Bradford for example ) .
Aren’t every party’s best results in their heartlands? :confused:
36 - An interesting argument. Pick an appropriate time in the past when a party was doing badly, and view an election in the light of what worried them at that time.
BTW Rifkind on Sky right now totally right about FCO. What a terrible time to change the Foreign Secretary! Put someone in with no foreign policy experience just as the crisis with Iran is drawing to a head.
The Newham results show Labour comfortably returned with 54 Councillors, Respect have just 3 as do the Christian People’s Alliance. Despite a full slate of candidates, the Tories won nothing and lost their defector in Royal Docks ward.
As the Mayoral result suggested, Labour has taken a battering but started from such a high base it could afford to lose votes on an industrial scale. In my ward, and without a detailed runthrough of the figures, I estimate the Labour share of the vote to have fallen from 75% to below 50%. Respect and the Conservatives polled just over 20% with the others well behind. I suspect this may be indicative of other Newham wards but I need to do a proper analysis.
Labour will be relieved to have survived largely intact and Respect may well be disappointed not to have made further headway.
43 - It’s a petty and vindictive sacking, it’s almost as though Blair is trying to goad others into chalenging him.
Regarding expectations I think there’s only one point in time that matters and that’s the few days before the election. It tells you a lot about the connection to reality of the various parties and where they are being complacent. Any time earlier and you can spin it to any advantage, a good example being the newsnight suggestions re seats in April -
Lib Dems +190
Lab -130
Con -75
Not very close were they?
45 - Newsnight should make interesting viewing tonight.
What was perhaps the most striking was that the Tories had overall success against the Lib Dems… is this a precursor for the next GE? If the South is going to swing firmly back to the Tory fold, perhaps the Lib Dems are best to concentrate on the Labour protest votes in the North?
The Tories didn’t do as well in the northern cities, of course, but that’s because the stigma largely remains there. Cameron has been successful in removing the ’shame’ of voting Tory, it seems, in London and the South, and some parts of the Midlands, but he needs to continue to press on with the change agenda in order to wipe the slate clean in the North. I think it’ll come eventually, but it will take time. No matter how poor the result in the north, nationwide the party has to be pleased with the result because it shows them building upon their support again.
42 Not if a party is increasing it’s share of the vote more in it’s heartlands and remaining static in the marginal seats . Result would be more safe seats but fewer gains for the same increase in overall vote share .
BTW for all the talk of the “ruthless wideranging reshuffle”, i don’t think enough has been made of the fact that it is exactly that: “a reshuffle”. Almost everybody who had a cabinet post yesterday has one today. Dynamism!
48. I think the Tories have done quite well in marginal seats overall. Marginal seats in the north still need to be concentrated on, but I don’t accept the thinking that the only reasons the Tories had a good result was because of their “heartlands” councils.
45 Agree with that paul re the Newsnight forecast which was widely ridiculed at the time . However I am sure there are many who expected the Labour vote to not be so resilient given the problems of the last 2 weeks . They were able to get out their core vote when it mattered and avoid a really bad result .
47 Michael Howard removed the stigma of voting Conservative in the kinds of areas in which we performed most well yesterday.
What interests me is the way that these results indicate that Cameron’s target group (young, affluent, left of centre, environmentally conscious) have not switched in any large numbers to the Conservative Party, yet the Tories have done well in the kinds of areas that they built their majorities on in the 1980s.
51. There is always a core vote that a party can rely on almost no matter what. There were still people who voted for John Major in 1997 despite what had gone on. I agree it could have been worse for Labour (you could always lose 1 more council or 1 more seat), but overall the Labour performance was poor.
Changing the subject slightly, not sure what to make about the Lib Dems. Was it good or bad?? Or just round and round in circles as usual….
Isn’t it only the Liberal failure that has allowed any positive spinning by Labour? The Conservatives have done way better than anyone predicted - but all the worse predictions for Labour were based on an assumption that the Liberals would gain more than 2.
52: “What interests me is the way that these results indicate that Cameron’s target group (young, affluent, left of centre, environmentally conscious) have not switched in any large numbers to the Conservative Party”
Sean, I’m not disputing what you say, but on what do you base that assumption - I would be interested to know.
Note on Clarke. In his backyard Labour were returned as the largest party in a hung council despite his woes. They turfed out the LibDems, mainly due to the Green gains though.
52 - who says that Cameron’s target group are “left of centre”? Left of the Conservative centre maybe.
52. I’m not sure Howard did remove the stigma of voting Conservative - many people felt embarrassed about voting for him with his right-wing manifesto - which felt slightly out of place in progressive yuppie areas in tory heartlands (i.e here in wandsworth). Cameron has done a much better job it.
There are some good performances in marginal seats outside the Tory ‘heartlands’ too - e.g. in the North; Nuneaton,Chorley, Rossendale, Hyndburn, Chester, Bury, W Lancs, Wakefield.
The W Mids results, winning with a massive swing in Tamworth, winning Coventry outright, holding on very well in Dudley and Walsall and winning more seats in Birmingham, are also quite promising.
In the SW, the results in Swindon, Weymouth, Plymouth, Bristol and Exeter were all good too.
Thank you, btw, Sean for the best and fairest post mortem of the results over at ConservativeHome:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2006/05/sean_fear_how_d.html
52. Sean, I think you may be letting your own doubts about the Cameron agenda get in the way of your normal reasoned analysis there….you can’t have the evidence on the demographic breakdown of voting yesterday to support that assertion.
Jones at 52, I think you are right.
I have no problem with Cameron doing his hush puppy approach but now is when we should be seeing Tory policies on the likes so law & order. He has a couple of hard types on the front bench, he should use them.
I wonder how people would respond to the Tories saying they’d get out of the Euro Convention on Human Rights and replace it with a Uk option? The Convention has been so associated with some seriously unpopular cases, dumping it might pay.
Secondly ‘Maintaining Communities’ Programme. Its very simple, use government engineering to support communities staying together, generations of families and so forth able to remain in the communities into which they were born, IF they want to stay of course. A big city winner?
54 I don’t think the COnservatives have done way better than everyone expected . I certainly expected them and the Lib Dems to do rather better just prior to polling ( but not 6 months ago ) I fully expected a Labour performance almost as bad as 1968 . Yes all parties have a core vote but given all the news interviews with voters highly critical of Labour in the last 2 weeks it held up better than I expected .
I think Sean’s analysis is a pretty fair one .
62. The problem with Cameron detailing policies now is that if they are crap he will be criticised (rightly), and if they are any good Blair will nick them.
I do agree though that he really should produce some policies how ever thin. Hugging iceburgs can only get you so far.
63 - if it couldn’t be relied upon to hold up pretty well regardless of a few bad headlines then it wouldn’t be much of a core vote.
63 - Oh, come off it Mark, for heaven’s sake. The Conservatives have managed a net gain of 316 seats, have taken control of 11 new councils, including good progress in northern suburban areas, and for the first time since 1992 we have achieved a national equivalent share of the vote of 40%. The Conservatives have had an excellent result, though perhaps not, I admit, as spectacular as some may have thought a few days ago.
Your lot, on the other hand, have managed a net gain of one council, a net gain of TWO councillors (!!) across the whole of England, you’ve failed to make inroads against Labour in the north, and you’ve lost 39 seats net to the Tories all over the map. There is no way you, Lord Rennard or anyone else can convincingly spin that as anything other than a huge disappointment, try as you may.
Stephen Tall is too modest to mention his own round up
http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/2006/05/at-end-of-day.html
If you have a look you will see he predicted vote shares pretty accuately on this very site.
66 Come off it AGM, coming second in the national share of the vote for the second time in 75 years can hardly be a HUGE disappointment.
66/68 apologies for turning you into a meeting!
68 - Peter. That about the only positive development for you chaps. If you are content with that crumb of comfort considering the hard numbers in terms of gains and losses, then you really are easily pleased.
“AGM” is no harm done. I’ve been called worse - and frequently so by political opponents. :wink
I’m not content with anything less than an overall majority achieved under STV, AHM.
But it is a pretty big crumb - and I always expected some Labour rebound in the mets.
70. I really am not sure what to make of the Lib Dems performance. On the plus side you have them second in the overall votes, and bearing in mind the state they were in re Kennedy / Oaten I suppose that is quite good. On the minus side a net gain of 2 councillors does not seem very strong when you think of the mess the government is in. Also they appear to have lost a bit of ground to the Tories in the south.
All in all I guess a little below expectations.
And what has happened to Ming since he has taken over - lost his touch??
72 - I would agree that in the dark Lib Dem days of January, at the height of the Oaten scandal, this result would likely have been a relief for them. But more recently, they have made much hay of recovering back to polling in the late teens/early twenties well before they had expected to, and they thought they had momentum coming out of Dunfermline. Clearly they can’t have it both ways, can they?
So Tory spin turns a net gain of 10 seats from the LibDems in the SE region into massive victory.
If that’s the best they can do against the LibDems at the most favourable time for them, in their most favourable region of England, then I’d say that’a a BIG disappointment, coupled with their continuing complete failure in the big cities.
just not good enough…..and they know it.
74 -
Keep spining yourself, Colin. You’ll be airborne soon…
73. Over the last few years we seem to have got used to the Lib Dems slowly advancing, and picking up a few seats and councils here and there. I just wonder if they have reached a plateau and will find further advance difficult. They are starting to lose a little bit of ground to the Tories in the south, and didnt make a breakthrough versus Labour in the north.
I’m not quite sure what the Lib Dem strategy going forward will / should be. Still I guess that is me and them in the same boat then!
66 AHM I am sorry if I have upset your sensibilities but I tried in my various posts on this thread ( which you have probably not bothered to read ) to give an unbiased view of these elections just as Sean did on Conservativehome . In addition as did Sean I gave a forecast just prior to the elections as to what I thought the result would be and have been trying to analyse as to why it was wrong . Perhaps if you concentrated a little more on why the Conservatives did not do universally well in say Gosport , Yarmouth , Bradford or Woking for example , we might all learn something positive .
Yokel at 62: I believe Cameron has explicitly ruled out withdrawing from the ECHR. You’re in the position of left-wingers in 1995 urging TB to promise to renationalise the railways, noting (correctly) that it would probably be popular. The reason it didn’t happen was partly that Blair felt it would have undermined the New Labour message (”we’re New yet we’re still doing this traditional bit”), and Cameron is ruling out things like a tough stance on immigration (Osborne implicitly confirmed this again today) or revoking the ECHR for exactly the same reason. Get used to it.
Did anyone else hear the amazingly biased World at One item on the local elections today? It ran something like this:
- Here’s the news. Terrible pounding for Labour.
- Here’s two voters you’ve never heard of who didn’t vote Labour, tell us why. You’re very disillusioned, are you? And you, madam, you’re disillusioned too? Tell us more.
- Here’s a longstanding critic who wants Blair to go, tell us why.
- Hey, and here’s another critic who wants Blair to go. Tell us why.
- Here’s Kate Hoey, who praised the reshuffle at length earlier. Let’s just broadcast the bit where she has a pop at Prescott’s salary.
- Here’s a loyalist, give him two sentences.
- Here’s a Minister, let’s ask him six hostile questions, like “Why doesn’t Blair sack himself?”
- Here’s Osborne, let’s ask him if he agrees with Prescott’s salary. Well, blow me down, he’s quite critical.
I rarely whinge about the media (”a politician who comnplains about the media is like a fish who complains about the sea” - E. Powell), but honestly, what a stitch-up.
Alastair, of course we are disappointed not to have done better, but this was not a bad set of results for us in objective terms - disappointing, yes, but not bad (though not great either I’d add.)
Disappointment is predicated on having high expectations, and we did expect to do better.
Whether it is a good or a bad result is born out by the figures: as we were (including pushing Labour into third place for the second time ever).
75 - cont’d
That argument is completely duff anyway. We have more council seats and control of more boroughs in London, the biggest city of them all, than any other party; We lead a minority administration in Birmingham which, when last I looked, was the second largest city in the country; we’ve got overall control of Coventry after last night; and we have seats all over the suburban north.
As you well know, we don’t need to win parliamentary seats in Manchester, Newcastle or Liverpool to have an overall majority.
Sean Fear - DC sled photo ops are a bit TB.
77 - Mark, I have read all your posts, and I’m afraid I don’t find them very objective at all - you are trying to gloss over a poor Lib Dem result, not that I blame you for trying, but you can hardly expect me to agree with you either!
As for your remarks on those various councils: I believe we lost one seat net in Gosport and we retained overall control of Yarmouth despite going down a few. Bradford and Woking are a pity, but they are of little or no significance to the overall figures.
“A H MatlockMatlock ”
Alastair, it’s not that if you add a double surname, you’ll get a peerage sooner!
I think AHM’s given up on the peerage - he now wants to be Secretary General of the UN!
79 - Chrisco, the Lib Dems can be pleased with themselves for overtaking Labour in vote share; but are you really, personally pleased with a net gain of just one new council and just two new councillors across the whole of the country?
Of course I am not pleased Alastair - I’ve already said I’m a bit disappointed.
83, 84 -
It’s this bloody Google spell checker that Mike Smithson recommended to me (your fault, Mike!!). Rather than improving my spelling it makes it worse and then I have to fix its mistakes! Grrr.
80 AHM. There’s no doubt that these elections represent a solid move forward for the Tories, but they remain as Sean Fear has correctly said a mixed bag. Remember too often in the past Labour flattered to deceive in local elections only to fall back at the subsequent GE. This time round there were too many indifferent results for the Tories to start popping the champers, let alone putting it on ice.
By contrast the John O Jacobite win is a complete and unalloyed triumph …….. save perhaps the small 66% share of the vote !!
Re. 78 - Nick, you’re clearly pretty angry about that W@1 piece. Have you complained to BBC or Ofcom? Take a look at Southwark result to cheer yourself a little. I was expecting LDem progress here, especially in my ward of Camberwell Green - but nothing. I am very perplexed by LDem inertia. Does the Dave-boy appeal really stymie them that much? Personally, I think he comes across as a terrible ‘to-the-manor-born-to-rule’ pillock but that might be a lot of my Welsh non-conformist prejudice coming through!!
87. Alastair MatlockX2. are you suggestion the spell checker adds new words now?!
86 - Fair enough.
90 - It did!! I swear it!
Alastair in the Xmas pb.com comp you forecast 500 Labour losses and 40 Lib Dem gains presumably therefore expecting 400 plus Conservative gains . With all the Labour problems in the last 2 weeks you would have revised your forecast to rather more than the 300 gains your party actually made .
88. “By contrast the John O Jacobite win is a complete and unalloyed triumph …….. save perhaps the small 66% share of the vote !! ”
Jack, I gave him some much needed advices as his agent for Harsham people living abroad, they were crucial to secure the 65% vote….we were forced to ditch all Jacobite references while you were in Scotland (and not looking)
93 - I predicted 325 net gains for us on ConservativeHome.com yesterday, Mark. Would you like the link?
How many other people were out in their forecast made 5 months ago?
94 - typical Jacobites, one message in Elgin and a different one in Elmbridge
96. but the crucial thing is that it’s a straight choice afterall!
96 - Where did they learn that trick I wonder, BV?
South Dorset, Alastair, South Dorset
94 Andrea. You wretched Hanovarian traitor !
Little wonder poor John O struggled to a mere 66% ….. I should have realized your miserable agent skills wouldn’t provide a North Korean style victory :
“Pyongyanging Here”
99 -
Touche!
That’s a very good choice of photo of Tony Blair! He looks quite simple!
Nick at 78: Re BBC bias - I’m sure you’ve spoken privately to more BBC journalists than most posters in the past few days. The BBC had five pre-set lines they wanted to run.
“Terrible pounding for Labour.Is this the end for the Prime Minister?”
“The Conservative vote fails to improve -Why hasn’t the Cameron effect translated into more gains in target seats? -(notes to producer - If desperate revert to mentioning Northern cities)”
“Another night of success for the Liberal Democrats - Are they set to overtake Lab/Con as the next Govt/opposition?”
“Good gains for the Green party. Is this the birth of new localism?”
“BNP take seats - Is it the fault of the Government, mainstream parties?”
Like Pavlov’s dogs, the BBC now seem to look automatically for the worst possible angle for anything Conservative/Labour and the most positive angle for anything Liberal Democrat. Apart from the Mark Oaten reporting,and a few murmurs about Ming’s age can anyone remember a single LD story getting a good Paxo/Humphreys going over in the past few months?
It’s like the BBC have become the militant wing of the Rennard operation.
103 - Lets privatise them!!!
:)
103 - Tory Paul - given the BBC are paying (ie using our money) the Cameron Promotion Operation (aka Michael Luntz) to puff your leader on Newnight, that’s a bit rich.
The office coffee club met over a pint this evening to discuss the election results – all five of us are Labour voters – we were surprised at the failure of the Lib Dems to take seats off Labour and none of us could explain why. The amount of Tory gains in seats and councils were more than we expected, BNP gains we expected but not on the scale they obtained, perplexed by the Green Party gains – will be interesting to see who they took seats from or stopped from winning (I assume Lib Dems)
I disagree with Sean Fear & Mark Senior analysis of the results however these two posters opinion are the first ones that I look for and I have a high regard for them. Sean alluded some time ago that he thought Richmond Conservatives were in a self-destruct mode - I should have trusted that. However Sean did say, “ I’ll stick to London. For the Conservatives, a good result will be a net gain of four boroughs or more, a lead of 5%+ in vote share across the Capital, and a net gain of 100 + seats. For Labour, a very good result would be to hold their position of 2002, but that’s generally agreed to be unlikely. A good result would be to hold at least 10 boroughs (compared to 15 now), come within a couple of percent of the Conservatives in vote share, and keep their net losses down to about 60 seats. A poor result would be falling below 8 boroughs, a seat loss of 120 +, and being more than 5% behind the Tories. For the Lib Dems, a good result would be a net gain of 40+ seats on their current total, and another couple of boroughs overall. Falling back on their current seat or borough totals would be a poor result. ”
Mark said, ” Sean has given a fair assessment of expectations in London. ”
I thought both of those posts were excellent and agreed with them and still do hence my assertion that the Tories did very well indeed and the Lib Dem must be extremely disappointed. Apologies to Sean & Mark if they consider quoting from old posts is below the belt.
However the next GE is still a long way away and the next mountain for the Tories & Lib Dems to overcome is how do they attract the coffee club to vote for them? For the Lib Dems civil liberties is your problem – withdrawing from the Human Rights Act wouldn’t be a problem for us for example. The Tories (especial with me) have the biggest problem as we all lived and worked during the Major years. Then again you might not need us.
Sean alluded in one of his guest threads to the braking down of the 2/3 party system into a 4/5/6 party system – perhaps we saw the start of that yesterday.
100. Jack, I improve his standing. With the jacobite tendency in full force, we risked the voters would have written Resident Association on the ballots even if they weren’t standing!
My agent skills are improving…..I could even tell you how to run a positive campaign in Dorset South (Book Value could paraphrase it better if he recalls it!)
Vino - dare I say it, a sympathy vote?
I think turnout was a big factor.
One big feature that came out probably too late for this election was the “soft on crime” attack that Labour use falls somewhat flat now.
105 - Tabman - Re Luntz: Money well spent on a clinical and discerning series. We licence payers are very lucky that one small corner of a BBC programme remains forever balanced.
But I return to my earlier premise: “Apart from the Mark Oaten reporting,and a few murmurs about Ming’s age can anyone remember a single LD story getting a good Paxo/Humphreys going over in the past few months?”
Nick @ 78, I’m not aware that David Cameron has said that (I’m not aware that he’s said anything to the contrary either). But don’t you think from your point of view, Tony Blair would have been well-advised to renationalise the railways? It would have been popular, as you say, and would have given him credit with his party Left. What’s the point of acting against your own instincts if it’s unpopular to do so?
WRT immigration, a hard line policy is likely to be imposed on any government, whether they like it or not. Relentless BNP gains over the next few years will concentrate the minds of the governing party pretty effectively.
Matlock Matlock - so good they named him twice!!
Vino, I stand by that. It was a bad result for Labour (I’ve commented on Harry’s Place where one of its commentators has tried to spin this as okay for Labour) and a good result for the Tories. The Lib Dems have not fallen back, so I think it’s a middling result for them.
111 - At last, Someone who really appreciates me!
Commiserations on your own result last night, Rik. Excellent results overall in Sutton though, and I understand they were due in no small part to your hard work there - Well done!
111. A notherner visited the USA and was required to fill in a form on arrival. “Were you born in wedlock?” asked the form. “No, Matlock” came the reply.
113 - thanks. We were about 100-200 votes away from taking control and if Carshalton had pulled their weight we might have done. I did expect that Labour would have just held on in St Helier ward but the LDs threw the kitchen sink at it to pick up three seats. In doing so they lost others.
I have to say that the LDs fought a strategically poor campaign and whoever decided their campaign deserves some close scrutiny. They pulled out of Worcs Park believing that they were safe (and lost it) in order to put people into Sutton South (which they failed to gain and lost their one seat).
We had over 14,500 pledges and had canvassed over 16,000 people since Jan 06.
My prediction was for 12-15 seats in S&C so I am happy with 14.
I thought I would lose Sutton West by 150-200, so to be just 51 votes off a seat is good but galling!
I did expect all three in Nonsuch and was disappointed with just one seat. BUt others elsewhere made up for it.
Overall we won Sutton and Cheam on votes (by 3,500) and on Councillors (by 14 Cons to 13 LD). It will make life much more interesting here. Maybe the LDs will start to listen to the public now!
It’s terribly easy to misjudge a situation Rik (I thought 1200 votes was enough to win Fryent). It was clear the Lib Dems would lose ground to the Tories in Sutton for a long time; the outcome suggests they just about got it right, although they’ll face a very hard fight next time.
Shaun Woodward moved from the Northern Ireland Office to Trade and Industry as junior Minister for Digital Switchover.
Jim Knight becomes Schools Minister.
How has your application to the A list gone Rik? I think you should seriously think about standing in Sutton again. If you did you would start off the perfect base of good local election results in your constituency building up the activist base but still with an incumbent LD council to fire freely away at.
It looks like Blair’s reshuffle is being panned by the tabloids tomorrow. mainly over Prescott keeping all his perks, his Jags and his palatial state-funded residences whilst having much diminished responsibilities.
The idea of this reshuffle was to reassert Blair’s authority, but it is being reported as yet another cock-up. The point has come where Blair can do nothing right. He is too incompetent to even reshuffle his cabinet.
Meanwhile a letter demanding that Blair give a departure date is said to have the support of 50 Labour MPs.
http://www.channel4.com/news/special-reports/special-reports-storypage.jsp?id=2307
M-m-m-m-m-m-atlock - so good they named him… Oh s*d it!
So, the situation is soooo bad that they must seriously change the leader: “Are we in the Blair party?… No! We’re in the Brown party”
Tower Hamlets Conservatives.
We have been working up to five wards for almosst four years.
After the General Election we delivered nine separate newsletters (5,000 copies) to homes in my ward of Blackwall and Cubitt Town. Millwall and St Kate’s did similar and Limehouse was not far behind.
When the election started we were able to deliver a leaflet a week. We worked from three canvasses and built up a good pledge base. On election day we had all four polling stations covered and began our “knock up” at 10.00am.
We had worked with local community groups and were reasonably well known. Tim Archer who topped the poll had the advantage of having been on a ballot four times in four years.
Our best areas of support were the old council estates and we achieved good coverage with window posters on the estates.
The riverside apartments contain huge numbers of people who are either on short rents working in the city or non UK/European/Commonwealth/Irish citizens and not enttked to vote.
There is also a noticeable NuLab vote in those blocks, high income earners who genuinely like and identify with Blair.
The Labour campaign was entirely national/regional. There were few local leaflets and the candidates did little doorstep campaigning.
The first Labour leaflet was withdrawn when it was discovered that the “Voter Informatuion contact number” was the Croydon Labour Party.
In next door Millwall ward, Labour tried to stir up an “us and them” campaign by starting a class war. This included attacks on “yuppies” and “Hooray Henrys”. As the author and defeated candidate was a product of St Alban’s School (fees are Lord knows what)and St John’s College Oxford even his acquired esturial accent became misplaced.
We would have won more seats, particularly in Limehouse, had the much publicised postal vote scandal not hit us hard. We missed a seat by 53 votes and hundreds of people were turned away because postal votes had been applied for them. The Conservative candidate who missed by 53 found the form submitted in her names was not even signed!
Not an argument for democracy.
I staggered out of the count at 5.15 PM, attended a group meeting and am finalising our thank you newsletter.
The work goes on.
6-Harry Hayfield
Static popular vote,3 extra councillors,1 additional council ‘Lib Dems steady as they go’Absurd!Get real.
‘Lib Dems static as they go nowhere’
120 - In the Brown stuff more like, Senator
I love the Times editorial on the reshuffle ‘pointless yet poisonous’
124. The Times is full of Gordon being angry, backbenchers being pissed, Blairites being on the attack and so on.
Naturally it could be all true, but every time something happens (elections, political scandal,..), it’s always the same saga in the press.
First week: all newspapers reporting about how bad it’s for Tony. It could be fatal
Then the bad thing happens. Blair does something and everyone start to change music saying how clear he’s (come on, in all countries, bad local elections tend to be followed by reshuffles!).
But Glenda, Peter Kilfoyle, John McDonnell, …(insert the name you prefer) start to scream asking for Blair’s head….you can get the impression they’re literally asking for it.
Naturally the blairites are angry with brownites. Brownites are pissed with blairites. Then something Blair does is reported as an obstacle for Gordon and so Brownites are even more pissed than before.
It’s always the same cycle!
Here’s my take on the local elections - and I hope even Rik and Alastair think it’s fair.
If I had no political allegiance and was just a ‘glory hunter’, I would say:
I would rather be a Tory tonight than anyone, and I’d rather be a Lib Dem than Labour. Does that sum things up?
“I would rather be a Tory tonight than anyone, I’d rather be a Lib Dem than Labour”
well, it depends where you live…a LD in Islington isn’t good today, maybe a LD in Brent is better.
126. Best analysis of results yet!
121 - That’s a stunning result Peter. Congratulations. Do you think the presence of Respect helped you in any way?
Obviously I don’t anticipate any specifics, but did you or your team see or hear of evidence of postal fraud?
[123] Just back from a long day at the office… so Brown is just one of a myriad of colours… I know it is trivial and bad, especially when so many Pb mates have lost, but the fact of Slim Pickens NOT winning in Sutton, when so many of his other ranks did… leaves me with a shallow, yet warm feeling..
Probably the same kind of frustrated joy as so may of our Conservative friends may be feeling this evening (For, roughly, the same kind of “I’m started, but may not finish” feeling, I would suggest Charlotte Green on “Today” at the 8.00 news…)
126 - Agreed!
Sorry. I have been away -but did anyone see this in the Grauniad? http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Politics/documents/2006/05/04/LocalElections.pdf - it kind of backs up my analysis of earlier.
130 - Now now, Senator. My ‘Brown’ remark referred to the Reds, not you lot.
Commiserations on your result as well.
132. uhm, no! They’ve 300 as ok for Labour and 100 as bad for LD and you preferred to be a LD than a Labourite
“Shaun Woodward moved from the Northern Ireland Office to Trade and Industry as junior Minister for Digital Switchover.”
damn, never trust the Guardian! He has been moved to Culture Department
“Here’s the news. Terrible pounding for Labour.”
To be fair Nick, rather than being able to watch a proper analysis/breakdown of local results with lots of journalists on various TV/radio stations discussing the terrible pounding Labour took, we were instead treated to the sight of various people arriving and leaving No10 all morning!
Mr Blair decided to have a reshuffle yesterday quite simply to knock Labour’s bad results of the news agenda and avoid damaging headlines in today’s paper’s.
To a large extent he appears to have achieved this and I think that generally Labour got off quite lightly with very little serious analysis of there result.
126,
No because there is no glory in council elections just limited power.
For most people it doesn`t register, who cares if Labour did well in the late 80`s in council elections, they just remember that the conservatives and Thatcher had the power.
Same applies today.
A useful staging post to power, but glory hunters, wouldn`t be intrested.
Personally I think the PM has moved very deftly in this reshuffle. Although there are hardly seismic changes at the Cabinet level, if you look at some of the key moves you can see some shrewd Blairite positioning - Reid to Home Secretary, Milband to Environment (to square up to the Cameron effect) and most importantly Alan Johnson to Education not to mention Hillary Armstrong getting a policy coordinating position after years treading water as Chief Whip. Also factor in Hutton retaining Work and Pensions - he’s hardly Gordon Brown’s ideal choice for the role is he and is apparently far less likely to acquiese to Treasury domination of his patch. Below the Cabinet is where a real Blairite imprint has been stamped on the Government
Jim Knight, Jim Murphy, Liam Byrne, Andy Burnham, Shaun Woodward, James Purnell all get job promotions - these are all recognisably blairite figures in the ascendent, hardly the act of a weak PM. My view is Blair will face down any likely move over the weekend by disaffected MPs - if the government can affect a strong image relaunch coming off this reshuffle then I can see hum lasting to 2008. By then the political landscape may not be given over to an “orderly transition” - personally after a generation under Tony Blair I think the Party will benefit from a genuine leadership election with a credible challenge to Brown - it will help galvanise the membership and remove the elitist sheen from New Labour.
132
Puts into perspective just how bad the Lib Dems result was last night and the ridiculous spinning that’s been going on to-day.
Nick Palmer Your complaint about the BBC is interesting as much more often the boot is on the other foot. And can the example you quote be compared to the gross bad manners and clear bias of the BBC comparing Tory leaders to apes again and again during their rather amateur election broadcast?
In general Nulab have had a soft ride from the press and that may have ended and I would simply repeat your own advice to you Get used to it.
139 - John. Excellent result in Bromley, My compliments!
138. Some not rebel Labour MPs seem to be ready to ask Blair to name a date.
The Guardian has not a great view of the reshuffle
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,,1768906,00.html
I agree with you that he has placed Blairites in key positions. But to be honest some of them simply deserved them (Johnson).
And there aren’t probably still so many brownites to fill junior positions. Some Brownites got promotions too today (Browne, Darling, Alexander, Ed Miliband, Balls)
——————————-
some “personal” views:
I think Hazel Blears is a bad choice for the party chairman position. Jowell is still pretty useless as she has always been. Armstrong should have been sent to backbenches.
141. Alastair, I prohibit you to even mention Bromley’s tories! Better the yellow brigade there! I would even help them to create barcharts!
143 - I must stand with my comrades, Andrea!!
144. Alastair, I’ve already identified Bromley on the map…..you know what’ll happen next!
143
We briefly tried the yellow brigade here from 1998-2001,council tax went up by a mere 36% and now we are a Lib Dems free zone!
Thanks but no thanks.
145 - We shall fight on the beaches!
The Times and the Guardian seemed to have given to completely different account of the reshuffle and what’s likely to happen in the coming months.
142 - very true Andrea Milband and Balls’ promotions were clearly always going to happen after they bedded in in parliament. What gets me though is the media spin that the Brownites are unhappy at Des Browne getting Defence Secretary - that its not a big enough job!? Of course there are able Brownites who deserved promotion and some got it, but if you look at the overall picture Blair has clearly moved to firm up a future basis for “blairism after Blair” with such promotions - A transition Brown government if it does indeed come about can’t simply sack the upper echelons of the sub-cabinet front bench. Frankly although the guardian say there is a letter with 75 signatories at the ready I seriously doubt that even the most disaffected like Andrew Smith and Nick Raynsford would actually go as far as to endorse a stalking horse candidate. If Brown wants a united Labour Party he really should get allies (some say minions) like Nick Brown back on the reservation - his behaviour on the BBC last night was unacceptable - we will end up as tarnished in the eyes of the electorate as the mid-90s tories if the extremists in both camps aren’t slapped down - Putting New Labour’s house in order and internal party development have to be priorities for the next year. The membership must be reached out to and efforts made to motivate them or members retention nevermind recruitment will become even more of a problem.
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