Harry Hayfield’s May 2006 local election summary
May 28th, 2006
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“They’ll be dancing in the streets of Witney tonight!”
Phew! Everyone calmed down now after the local elections at the start of the month? That’s a relief because boy has this month been a real rollercoaster for all concerned (and to think it all started with a set of local elections that were quite frankly unpredictable). When the dust had settled and the councils all declared it was clear that was just one winner and that was David Cameron’s Conservatives.
Local Elections 2006: National Projected Vote Share / Change on 2002 / Seats Won / Change on 2002
Conservatives 39% (+5% on 2002) winning 1,830 seats (+317 on 2002)
Labour 26% (-7% on 2002) winning 1,442 seats (-320 on 2002)
Liberal Democrats 25% (Unchanged on 2002) winning 907 seats (+1 on 2002)
Others 10% (+2% on 2002) winning 133 seats (-2 on 2002)
And so naturally after that bonanza you think that the Conservatives could do no wrong in local by-elections? And you’d be right! Defending 13 seats, they ended up with 18! And yet they did have a couple of hiccups along the way. They gained Eynsham on Oxfordshire County Council from the Lib Dems and Pakefield on Suffolk County Council from Lab as well as several Labour wards on Wyre and North Kevesten, but managed to lose two on Epsom and Scarborough councils to the Ratepayers and Greens respectively. But on a three cornered tally of 45%, I don’t think that Mr. Cameron will be too worried.
And neither can the Lib Dems either, a 28% three cornered tally isn’t that bad and compared well with recent months and managed to gain a couple of wards from Independents on West Lindsey and Caradon.
The real losers in both the locals and the local by-elections were Labour. Managing to poll just a paultry 16% in the three cornered tally wasn’t enough, they also went on to lose 3 seats to the Conservatives! All of which will not make happy reading for Mr. Blair when he comes back from Washington. But you know what he’ll say: “These are local by-elections, not a general election”. Which brings us nicely to the national projected share and an admission
In my recent postings, I’ve been using the numbers published by the BBC on their local election programme of 2004 that suggested when a general election and local election are held on the same day, the Lib Dems do 8% better in a local election, whilst Labour do 4% worse, and the Conservatives and Others do 2% worse. I have since discovered that these numbers are in fact WRONG! I have found the correct figures and so will adjust the three cornered tallies by these new adjustments which are:
Tories: 45% in local by-elections May 2006, who poll 3% worse in a general election = 42% (+9% on Election 2005)
LDs 28% in local by-elections May 2006, who poll 6% worse in a general election = 22% (-1% on Election 2005)
LAB 16% in local by-elections May 2006, who poll 9% better in a general election = 25% (-11% on Election 2005)
Others 11% in local by-elections May 2006, who poll unchanged in a general election = 11% (+3% on Election 2005)
Thus gives us a forecast House of Commons of:CON 377 (+179): LAB 176 (-180 ): LD 62 (n/c): OTH 31 (+1 ). CON majority 108
So to quote that famous line from BBC Rugby, “They’ll be dancing in the streets of Witney tonight!
Harry Hayfield is a Lib Dem activist in Wales.
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I hope Harry doesn’t take this the wrong way, but from a Lib Dem activist I think that’s a surprisingly generous view of how the Tories are doing…not that I’m complaining.
The forecast for the House of Commons is way beyond anything I would have imagined. The drop in Labour’s share of the vote is HUGE. However, these figures should obviosly be treated with caution if we want to realistically predict the next GE result at such an early stage.
Goodness me Harry - that result will upset some of your Lib Dem chums on this site. No need for a coalition in return for PR after all.
Hi Harry ,
For interest , the direct comparison for the 2005 County Council and GE results the same voters voted as follows in the local elections Con -2.3% Lab -4.5% Lib Dem + 4.9% Others + 1.9% compared to as they voted in the GE .
3. What’s the source for those figures, pls, Mark?
Harry
The figures the BBC gave for gains and losses compared not with the last time the seats were fought but with the position before the elections (I believe).
Thus in Kensington and Chelsea the Lib Dems were shown as losing a seat although we had never won one there (the loss was of a seat held by a lady who defected from the Conservatives last year.)
Lib Dem gains compared with 2002 (and 2004 in some areas) seats were fought was higher. (Mark Senior probably has the figures!)
4 Hi Fred , Source is myself adding up all the figures last year . Can send you a spreadsheet with figures by county if you like - Email me on markseniorcoins@msn.com .
5. Peter, there could been changes in the other direction. For ex in Islington a LD lady defected to Labour, she retained her seat this time, BBC probably considered it a Labour hold. But it could have been considered a LD loss too.
6. Thks Mark..may well be in touch
7 Indeed there will have been. Aren’t there a couple of coucils where large numbers of Tories defected to independents?
The bigger issue is the effect of by-elections though.
My point is that Harry’s (+317 on 2002)(-320 on 2002)and (+1 on 2002)is not correct.
Good thread but figures are based on turnout of ?
Oh, Gosh, in this article there’s a clear mistake!
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/party-politics/labour/prescott-under-pressure-441272.htm
11 - Alan Duncan for DPM!!
12. Now I know that DC is trying to modernize the party and eveything, but trying to sell Dinky to Labour is not nice!
13 - It could be some sort of clandestine mission, Andrea….
14. because he’s short and so they think Labour won’t spot it?
15 - Won’t see him coming - that’s right!
So is Cameron on his way to Number 10 based on this month’s local by-elections? Well, in a nutshell no, but then again what’s a set of local by-elections compared to a general election eh?
Harry Hayfield
Are you carrying on from your April 1st thread?
I would like to congratulate any Liberal Democrats reading this on their gain of one seat in the local elections. That is a strong platform for further progress!
I would also like to congratulate any Labour posters or lurkers on managing to stay above the 15% level in three-way by-elections. Maybe that is still to come next month. Perhaps now is the time to demand a new captain or to jump ship.
As for the Tories, their 29% lead is a reflection of their new multi-coloured leader. I am in fact considering leaving Respect for the new green Party, seeing as Labour’s campaign has helped me to realise Cameron reaches out to all political colours.
377 seats would be a dream for Mr Cameron - no chance it’ll happen though! I’m sure Labour will do worse in the next GE but I doubt they would drop below 30%, even Labour, like the Lib Dems and Tories have a core block vote.
“CON majority 108″: unlikely story. Totally unsupported by recent polling. Baxter has the Lab-Cons neck and neck on seats.
I agree with 20. It’s all in the boundaries. They favour Labour.
See Professor John Curtice’s article in Sunday telegraph yesterday. He believes FPTP works against the Tories still, and that they will struggle to get a majority.
I guess we’llhave to wait. I only hope Ming does the decent thing, and hands over to Clegg well before the next GE.
I read the same article . The best the Tories can hope for is being the largest party in a hung parliament based on their current polling figures.
One indication of how tactical voting could go at the next general election is what the NOC councils are doing. After all, these have to choose leaders, so the party/ies not in the running has/ve to have had to back someone has to take the reins at their AGMs which have presumably all taken place now. There will always be some local factors and personal issues in play, but no small part of the equation will be how the public will take any deal for a coalition or to support a minority regime. Has there been any collation of what’s happened across the country in these councils?
19. Yes, Labour have a core vote! In the 80’s it was discovered to be around 27-28%. Labour were at 35%ish last time so could conceivably drop under 30% at the next election. Would be surprised if they did, but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility.
Whilst I suspect that a Conservative majority of 108 is a little optimistic, I no longer thing a conservative overall majority is out of the question.
I would be interested to know from the people who have the figures, is what happened to turnout. In our local Bentswood bi election, perviously Labour, their vote went up from last time and they were trounced on a much higher turnout. I would be interested in knowing if this is happening elsewhere.
Generally the accepted view here seems to be that tribal vote share is between 25% and 30% for both Conservative and Labour, so polling under 30 is just possible for Labour at a GE particularly if the troops are tired and disillusioned as they seem to be.
What seems realy interesting to me is that Tony Blair asked people to remember the last 9 years not just the last 9 days. Well, they havee had embaresments over all the 9 years, but those 9 days were a storm of bad stories. Thing is they have not stopped. Has the press really got the taste for Labour blood? Is the administration leaking bad news against the government? In short is a Lbour government going to look a credible option to anyone but the core support at the next GE. We don’t know. Maybe they can regain control of the news. Maybe not. If this media storm continues though then the next GE will see a conservative majority, If it doesent then we could be any where from a small majority for one, a hung parliament to a small majority for the other party.
Interesting times indeed.
“So to quote that famous line from BBC Rugby, “They’ll be dancing in the streets of Witney tonight”
IIRC this referred not to any Rugby game, but rather to the non-existent “Raith” as in Raith Rovers FC