What about a woman to follow Ming?
May 30th, 2006
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Could one of these be Britain’s 2nd woman party leader?
With the speculation about Ming’s future as Lib Dem leader it’s inevitable that people should be thinking about who could succeed him. So far the main focus has been on Nick Clegg (8/11), who did not do his chances any good the other day after being over-heard discussing Ming’s failings in a mobile phone call.
As well as Clegg in the betting are David Laws (4/1), Ed Davey (5/1) who in January all made the questionable decisions to stand aside and not oppose Ming. Chris Huhne, who did run, is also at 5/1.
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But what about the women? Could one of the new crop of female MPs who’ve come to the Commons in the past three years after beating Labour have the bottle, Margaret Thatcher-style, to take on the men?
First one there - from right to left- is Sarah Teather - who came onto the national stage following her by-election spectacular in Brent East in September 2003. That she beat Labour then and went on to hold the seat at the General Election was no mean achievement. When she arrived she was the youngest MP and being just four feet ten inches tall she shares the honour, along with Hazel Blears, of the being shortest member of the House.
Teather showed she was prepared to take risks when she played a key part in Kennedy’s departure being the co-author of the letter threatening to resign her front bench position if the former leader carried on. Her betting price is 14/1.
In the centre picture is Lynne Featherstone who pulled off the second most sensational result a year ago in Hornsey and Wood Green when she over-turned a Labour majority of 10,614 by a margin 2,395 votes.
Lynne showed she was not going to be cowed by the party hierarchy when she played a key part in Chris Huhne’s campaign. But for this she would probably have been given a more prominent role in the party by Ming. In her 50s she’s the oldest of the three and was shortlisted in the “Rising Stars” category of this year’s Channel 4 political awards.
On the right is Julia Goldsworthy (14/1) who took Falmouth and Camborne and shadows the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. She’s starting to impress a lot of people but being only 27 years old is really far too young.
A great advantage all three have got is that they will be facing Labour opposition in their constituencies next time - a task that should be easier than those defending against the Tories.
Of the three Featherstone seems to have the most immediate potential, is more mature, and you could imagine her having the presence, sharpness and humour to cope with PMQs. She would certainly put a spark back into her party.
Mike Smithson
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Susan Kramer?
At last, what I was saying at the turn of the year, bring it on,
Featherstone, Goldsworthy, Kramer, probably in that order, a competent, capable woman leader, of a major political party would be refreshing and great.
Why - what difference does their sex make ?
3 It would be distinctive, & give another voice except for boring middle aged men, perhaps.
[3] Because women (especially young women) are more attractive. You’re not another who thinks ‘ishoos’ or policies matter?
Its just possible to win if you’re ugly, if everything else is going your way. When the govt you lead is tired, and even the pinkos at the BBC have had enough of your socialism, looking fresh and invigorating is vital. Everybody has their own views on GB: thats his problem. Fresh he isn’t.
The tories are still available at evens to be the largest party at the next GE. Surely that price won’t be available much longer?
6 So if being ‘a women’ is important, why are David Cameron’s personal opinion poll ratings moving up (especially amoungst women) ?
Uh? Anyone of these nonentities as leader and the LDs would deflate like a punctured balloon.
It’d be back to the days of the entire Parliamentary party fitting into a single London taxi or telephone kiosk.
Can’t wait.
I rate Julia Goldworthy highly - but she is too young, and unproven at the moment.
Sarah teather is, I hear, a good constituency MP, but has been lacking in presence and depth when I have heard her speak both at LibDem and LGA conferences.
Lynne Featherstone has impressed me every time I’ve seen her, and would be a excellent candidate - gender doesn’t come into it.
[6] DC’s ratings are going up because he’s attractive. Thats the key. Its not his policies, is it?
I’m not all that bothered about the gender of our next leader, and think this is being over-egged with this and also the labour deputy leadership. Hopefully a good bromley result will shore Ming up and stop the whispering.
Featherstone certainly comes across well, but perhaps not as well as Laws, Clegg, Davey, or even Simon Hughes.
And dear God, please not Chris Huhne……
I think I can confidently say none of these will be the next leader of the Lib Dems. That’s not the same thing as saying none of them will ever be leader.
Clegg’s price is far too tight - he should be about the same as the other main contenders - Davey and Huhne. The MP that hasn’t been mentioned (and there appears to be no odds for) is Steve Webb who is a likely contender (and a strong candidate of the centre left and moral/Christian wings).
Laws is also far too tight - he may well stand but there is next to no chance of him winning.
Anyone fancying a punt should also remember that they are tieing up their dosh for four or so years. There is almost no chance of a contest this side of a general election. And no amount of ramping from ‘CFUK wits’ as it were changes that.
So you’ve caught up with me, eh, Mike
?
Since this is a site of record, I have a question for David Kendrick, if I may.
Does not Cameron, like Lynne Featherstone, have brown eyes? Don’t all Prime Ministers have blue eyes?
A question? What happens if the Lib Dems gain Blaenau Gwent and Bromley in the two / three by-elections pending? Will that make all the people who say that Ming is useless shut up?
This is presumably Mike’s ‘Be nice to Prezza’ lead on a very slow news day?
I would have thought the wee Scottish lassie would stand rather more chance than at least two of your selection. But not for some time.
13. Yes it would. But the likelihood of it happening is nil.
Teather, despite being helped by poor Labour campaigns in ’03 and ’05, is a great campaigner but personally I don’t see much beyond that, she frequently bombs in TV appearances and in the House all of which is compounded by her comparative youth and… er… stature.
Featherstone seems like a possible choice she comes across well on TV (if not brilliantly), she has a proven flare for campaigning and she has, by all accounts, become a talented parliamentarian. Her support for Huhne, as Mike says, probably cost her a prominent post under Ming and her lack of a senior post might count against her. I do wonder if Huhne is as strong as some people think, he was Campbell’s only credible opponent and while he did well, I think he came out of the campaign damaged and, while he’d certainly run in any election in the near future, if others perceived that decline in stature then that could open the door to Featherstone.
Goldsworthy has tremendous potential IMHO, she was dismissed as lightweight when she first became Cable’s deputy – those voices seem to have disappeared since then, it is not that she is brilliant but she seems to have mastered her brief. At the same time, she seems to possess a similar media friendly image to that which Kennedy enjoyed.
Out of the three I’d suggest Goldsworthy would, potentially, be the strongest leader from amongst the LibDem’s parliamentary delegation, she is a credible parliamentarian and at the same time seem (like Cameron) remarkably “human” and normal for a politician.
With Goldsworthy so much is just potential, however I dread to think the impact she could have if she secured a prominent media profile as leader of the LibDems, especially amongst women voters - I don’t mean that in a condescending way, its just (like Blair and Cameron) Goldsworthy, personally, seems to reflect many of the attitudes and aspirations of female, middle class, moderate voters.
PS: I should add that I’d fully expect Campbell to survive, for the time being, and that Huhne might replace him – Clegg might be starting to look like to much of the “young man in a hurry” like “Hezza”.
10. ” A good Bromley result will shore up Ming and stop the whispering….”
Not a chance,and it’s not whispering when even Dead Ringers wade in with a merciless sketch. It’s terminal in that Ming cannot change the way his personality comes over. It is rather like Gordon Brown who, we are told, is to close associates a charming witty character; but it does not translate to public perception; we are used to seeing a brooding wrinkled fellow sitting next to TB at PMQs making the occasional bullish gestures at the opposition.
Presentation is all, or nearly all, these days and with Ming we can be squeezed out of the game so that 2 party politics which is so much easier for the journalists, returns for good.
2. “What has gender to do with it”
Exactly because the women concerned, like Shirley Williams have the rather feminine ability to communicate in a clear and very personal way. I admit that in your sex David Cameron has it too, but this is his slightly feminine trait.
Beth
I don’t expect Ming to go anytime soon, but Featherstone would certainly get my vote. Thank you to Mike for mentioning her. I don’t think Teather’s got what it takes but Goldsworthy is certainly interesting for the future.
What is a good Lib Dem result at Bromley, 15%, 25%, 35%, just coming second, winning,not winning, some specifics please.
Goldsworthy the only possibility of those three. But the speculation is slightly pointless - none of them will beat Clegg or Huhne.
The Fawcett Society did some work before the last GE that showed that women are more likely to vote in an election if one of the candidates is a woman. Not that they’re more likely to vote for that woman, but just more likely to vote at all. So with Cameron shifting women voters back to the Conservatives a higher turnout amongst women should help the Tories! Go Goldsworthy!!!!
I really can’t see Sarah Teather being the next Lib Dem leader. Actually I don’t think any of them will be; Laws, Davey and Clegg are all much more likely to get the top job next time round. I don’t think Chris Huhne would be the best choice either…I just don’t like him, I don’t know why. Maybe he just seems too smug?
Teather and Goldsworthy haven’t got quite enough experience. I don’t really know much about Lynne Featherstone, and I don’t think the wider public knows much about any of the potential candidates. Then again you could have said that about David Cameron before he became Conservative leader and he’s doing very well.
Well there is plenty of time for them to build their profiles and mount a challenge. Ming will be around for several years to come.
Featherstone is pretty impressive in my view. Teather perhaps should stand for the presidency against Hughes (I think this would suit her talents). Goldsworthy may well be the leader after next.
Lib Dems are in pretty good spirits at the moemnt. This is partly because a lot of internal problems seem to be being addressed (ok there was some low hanging fruit), and because of the step out of danger on “votes for prisoners”.
But the big bonus for lib dems at the moment is the never-ending flow of Cameron blunders
http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/camerons_munchausen_syndrome
The danger for Cameron (apart from the vicious Cornerstone attacks) is that the UK press loves to build people up to knock’em down. Cameron is certainly providing the ammunition.
It seems an early bath for Ming now appears virtually a done deal. Good news for me financially, but I am unsure whether it will be good news for the Lib Dems. Another leadership contest triggered by whispering and plotting may not greatly impress the public.
Teather would be worse than Ming - she is hopeless on tv.
The other two would be interesting and dangerous for NuCons but I can’t see the Clegg/Laws LD MPs letting it happen.
23 - Peter, Peter, Peter, You are a wag, make no mistake and it’s the way you tell ‘em :). Is there some sort of LibDem parallel universe where you’re polling 38%, taking the lead on key issues, and making over 300 gains on May 4th?
But on this planet earth….
I presume you left out Susan Kramer because she is unlikely to hold her seat at the next elections or is ther some other reason
Featherstone is the one I like the most among them. She always seem to “sure of herself”.
As someone mentioned earlier, Teather sometimes had some terrible TV performances.
Talking about women, Milan has just elected a dreadful centre-right woman as mayor…but for par condicio, Naples elected a disastrous centre-left woman as mayor (Mrs Rosa Russo Iervolino and her voice! You should hear it!)
O/T And back on Prescott and betting - This rticle on the Beeb suggests that Will Hill have a Prescott to stay until July market at 2/1 on. I assume that Mike hasn’t mentioned it as they are notorious at stating odds that are not available online. Am behind a firewall so haven’t looked for it myself.
It’s clear that if the Lib Dems select a female leader then there is only one candidate to fit the bill. What the Lib Dems need and the nation requires is a Scottish candidate with impeccable aristocratic credentials, let alone someone of the Gaelic nobility. I give you :
The Right Honourable Baroness Michie of Gallanach, scion of the Bannermans of Kildonan :
http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/baroness-michie-of-gallanach.html
……………………………………….
19 david(s) Second place and around 30% would be a decent result.
24 Fred. No change for at least 18 months unless “health” matters intervene.
From yesterday - Nick Palmer - Yes, I did go to the Oxford Union debate, and congratulated you on your speech the morning after IIRC. It was a very good debate and I thought you very courageous to go to the Oxford Union and speak against free speech! I’ll try not to be offended that you ignored my point of information…
Re 6/9 Don’t forget that Cameron got voted 92nd sexiest man in the world…
24 - yawn.
There is absolutely no chance of a change in Lib Dem leader. Ming is highly regarded in the Parly Party and in the wider membership, as shown by his commanding election mandate just 3 months ago.
In my local party, which has grown significantly in the last few months, Ming is seen as a serious politician. He’s going nowhere (no matter how much you Tories try and ramp it).
re 1& 27. I left Susan Kramer out because I don’t think she’s in quite the same league as the three I’ve featured.
mike smithson
26 John O - dunno. Is there a parallel universe where Thom Yorke is a friend of David Cameron?
Actually on planet earth I haven´t seen the Tories take a lead on key issues. Which did you have in mind?
As a tory I am always impressed by featerstone, someone i’ve also always had a soft touch for. Teather on the other hand is terrible on the Tv and speaking if anyone saw the way she bombed against Alan Duncan on ‘Question Time’ last year would know what I mean when I say unfortunatley another term (at least) on the backbenches is needed.
David Kendrick, Ming Campbell is better-looking than Sarah Teather.
30. Jack W - ‘no change for at least 18 months’. You seem very sure of that, but I am afraid I am minded to follow Mike Smithson’s lead on matters Lib Dem, rather than yours. The fact that the issue of the leadership has now been raised on the site several times, plus the many not-very-supportive comments from our Lib Dem posters and the evidence of briefings against MC by senior colleagues all suggest a more compressed timetable to me. I note you have a get out clause with ‘health’ reasons….maybe that will be the cover for the change.
36. Sean, Sarah Teather was ahead in the yougov poll about the sexiest female MP.
But I think it was a rubbish poll, because Hunky Dunky didn’t win on the male side!
38 Was that the one Boris won?
34. Peter, probably John was referring to the last ICM poll:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2006/Guardian%20-%20May/The%20Guardian%20Poll%20-%20May.asp
Jack, cannot see the Lib Dems getting 30% at Bromley, given the General election and local election results.
Some of the Conservative victories in the local wards were simply spell binding, 3000+ votes against 800 etc.
South east London is not good for the Lib Dems, they appear to be even struggling somewhat next door in Orpington.
Would not be suprised to see the Greens, UKIP or another fourth group party take a lot of the usual by election protest vote, leaving the Lib Dems round about 20% in second, miles behind.
I think this is one of their most difficult by elections for years and years.
39. yup, my dear, I see you keep yourself informed on important national issues!
34 - Peter, the Tories have taken a lead on key issues such as education and pensions, are just 2 points behind on the NHS and have slashed Labour’s lead by 20 points on the economy - all detailed in Friday’s YouGov poll.
As for the never-ending stream of Cameron gaffs to which you refer, I am very interested in politics and before I looked at your links I’d never heard of them. The fact is that you LibDems are digging around for these things which will never hit the radar of the public. However, poor ‘ol Sir Ming’s now rather tragic leadership is hitting the radar.
I think he’ll claim he was a caretaker after all and go quietly in 1-2 years. There is no way Clegg-Laws-et al will miss this chance and will block our female challengers.
FWIW I think that Featherstone would be the best of the 3. Teather is a three-legged-donkey-in-the-Grand-National kind of MP whilst Goldsworthy is good but too young. Kramer is just bizarre and stands no chance - her voice will do it for her.
“What happens if the Lib Dems gain Blaenau Gwent and Bromley in the two / three by-elections pending”
I will eat my hat whilst flying on a pig.
Must have been a thin news Bank Holiday to come up with this thread - what odds on all 3 losing their seats at the next GE anyway?
41 Is Lewisham in South East London?
32 - It’s a bit rich having a LibDem accusing the Tories of ramping. 16 and 8 are Ming’s vital statistics, if you know what I mean.
34. That poll showed Cons 2% ahead of Labour on health and education, 4% ahead on taxation and public services, 12% ahead on law & order, and 18% ahead on immigration. A more subjective analysis could of course reach the conclusion that the Lib Dems have ‘the lead’ in all these main policy areas.
I said at the time of the leadership election early this year that it was a great shame that there was not a female candidate . I would rate Susan Kramer more highly than Sarah Teather and think Featherstone or Goldsworthy would give Clegg and Laws a run for their money in a leadership contest and offer a real alternative to GB and DC Either would cause real panic in the Conservative party at the prospect of an alternative to DC who could directly appeal to floating and soft Con and Lab voters . Will Ming stay ? - I think for another 15-18 months . Jo Swinson is another to watch for the future .
43 the latest was in the Independent. Mike Smithson ran a thread on some of the others a while ago. Building up nicely, aren’t they?
Did John O mean an opinion poll lead? On education, the Tories have just voted with the govt…
27 - Given the Lib Dems gained ground from the Tories in Kramer’s seat at the local elections last month, she is hardly a prime candidate for the chop.
I don’t think any of the individuals named a great prospects for next Lib Dem leader. Although I quite like Featherstone and Kramer, they are not among the frontrunners. Teather is a good campaigner but not a serious contender. The new female MPs are decent prospect but not as NEXT leader.
On the more general betting, Laws is poor value. I would support him, but he is a controversial figure in the party and that gives pause for thought to those of us who like what he stands for let alone those who are more sceptical. More fundementally, I do not believe he would stand.
34 Peter you said: “Actually on planet earth I haven´t seen the Tories take a lead on key issues. Which did you have in mind?”
Well, they have and it was clear from the words “key issues” that this didn’t mean the topline VI figures, which the Tories also lead on. Cameron is doing well and no ammount of LibDem ramping will change that!
Interesting thread, my view is it has to be Featherstone because the others tend to come across too shrill to be taken seriously.
Campbell will still be there at the next election though, barring falling under a bus.
The leading runners and riders in the Lib Dems leadership stakes know full well that the the time to take over is immediately after the next election and not before.
Why? - They don’t want to be at the controls when the ship hits the rocks.
51 I understood “taking a lead on key issues” as making policy proposals on the issues that most affect the public.
IMO the Tories haven´t done this. Most issues are policy free and on education your policy is “support labour”.
If it means “ahead on opinion polls” that is different. But what is the significance of being marginally ahead on education if the reality is that tory policy = labour policy?
John Hemming should be the next Libdem Leader.
Julia Goldsworthy as his deputy and you have someone to appeal to both sexes.
53 - Let’s mop Peter’s fevered brow…I was referring - as have others - to the opinion poll leads on these and overall voting intentions.
41 david(s). With the Lib Dems already scoring 20% and Labour almost certain to lose vote share 30% seems about par, especially in the Lib Dem by-election mode.
I expect this to be a comfortable Con hold, around 50-55%.
I’ve said all along that Ming will come into his own in the general election when the enforced equal media coverage will contrast him favourably against the short-trousered, only-just-learned-to-shave Tory front bench.
So while I’m not overjoyed to see him taking a battering at the moment, I’m not particularly worried either. At its most basic level, the difference between the Lib Dems and the Tories at the moment is that the Tories have only one serious positive, and that’s their leader, while the Lib Dems have only one possible negative, and that’s the talk surrounding Ming. Clearly, it’s far easier to solve the Lib Dem problem - better presentation and a couple of direct hits by Ming - than it is to solve the Tory problem, whereby the party will be utterly sunk if Cameron should disappear under the wheels of a bus while out cycling.
As for the next leader, I’ve said for ages now that it should be and will be Lynne Featherstone. She is ambitious, direct, talented and politically aggressive, both for herself and for the party. Provided she doesn’t feel duty-bound to continue to support Chris Huhne, I would say she’s the second favourite behind Clegg at the moment - and I know which of them my money would be on in a fight to the death!
55 That’s progress for you, John O.
From being in government but not in power, you are now ahead, but failing to take a lead…
50 - Actually I’m fairly sure they didn’t. The Tories held their own in Richmond far more effectively than what they did in Twickenham, and in the North Kingston wards of the Richmond Park seat the Tories, I believe, made gains there. Somebody can correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m fairly sure the Tories hold more council seats than the Lib Dems do in Richmond Park.
45 - Yes, Peter, next to Bromley. As the LDs have declined in Bromley, they’ve recognised the potential in Lewisham, something symbolised by the fact that Chris Maines, Bromley’s ex-leader and candidate for Orpington since 1992, moved to Lewisham after the 2005 election, came second in Lewisham in the Mayoral elections, and is now on the council. Effectively, an admission that the LDs are not going places in Bromley in the neatr future.
58 - And remind me what Ming Campbell has done to “take the lead” again?
Well I thought I’d at least get a picture of where these three stand politically by this stage in the thread but nothing.
How liberal are they? Would they capitulate under the slightest pressure as with Ming on votes for prisoners?
If the lib dems continue to become less liberal they will lose their unique selling point in British politics and, whilst you may cream off the odd disaffected new labour voter, you’ll lose the left-liberals who decamped from labour after Iraq and the libertarians who will vote Green or Conservative.
Lib dems should stop and consider just why there was no advance at all in the locals and why polls are at best becalmed. It’s not because of Ming, it’s because they are ceasing to be different to the other two parties. As a third party that’s suicidal.
59. yes, the tories have more councillors than LDs in the new Richmond Park constituency.
Con: 3 in Barnes, 3 in East Sheen, 3 in South Richmond, 2 in Canbury, 3 in Coombe Hill, 3 in Coombe Vale and 3 in Tudor
LD: 3 in Ham,…, 3 in Kew, 3 in Mortlake & Barnes Common, 3 in North Richmond, 1 Cambury
In the part under Richmond borough the LDs have more councillors than the tories, but the tories have almost all councillors in the 4 wards from Kensington borough (11 against 1).
I’m puzzled by the fact Richmond Borough website forced me to see a View the Terms and Conditions section to see their wards!
Oh dear, Peter, these polls register which party is best to handle X rather than has the best policy on X. So, more people trust Cameron with Education, Pensions etc than Blair.
64: In other words, all they show is that vague unformed platitudes in lieu of real policies are less objectionable to the public than the government’s detailed record of failure. Which should hardly be a surprise to anyone.
58, 64 - Not really Peter’s day, is it
But surely can’t be long before Zebidee, ColinW and the “Sage” (sic) trundle along with reinforcements
?
And where’s that “sort of” mildly entertaining, Cllr Stephen T when you most need him…Ah, there he is, chasing a wheelie-bin up Headington Hill…
65 - A tactic that was good enough to get Blair elected in 97!
64 - Cameron more trustworthy than Blair, eh?
In other news, it can be revealed that David Cameron is taller than Sarah Teather. Full story p.94.
66.”And where’s that “sort of” mildly entertaining, Cllr Stephen T when you most need him…Ah, there he is, chasing a wheelie-bin up Headington Hill… ”
John, stop with your lurid allegations against the Hunk of Headington!
I know you’re just jelous because he has a wikipedia entry and you haven’t!
O/T, the Guardian has a report from one of Blair favourite Sir Peter Vardy’s schools.
It’s the wrong trousers, Gromit! And our taxes are paying for it!
The LDs shouldn’t and won’t be bounced into getting rid of Ming just as he’s getting down to work, the results of which cannot have shown up in either the local elections or the current opinion polls.
67: It’s a shame that apeing a two-bit huckster like Blair seems to be the height of Tory ambition these days. Such a come-down for the “natural party of government”!
65 - sorry to break up your A Level politics rant, but people vote on perceptions of policies I would argue. Hence they believe that DC’s day-to-day management of key services would be better than TBs.
73 - In which case, all political sparring aside for a moment, why the hell do any of us bother?
The Lib Dems had just 10 councillors in Richmond Park after the 2002 elections - they now have 13. Neither figure is hugely impressive, but it didn’t stop Kramer winning comfortably in the face of an agressive, well organised and very well funded Tory campaign in 2005.
The degree of ramping from the younger more excitable Tories - the ‘FCUK wits’ if you like is getting in the way of reasoned debate on this site. For example Fred says, ‘plus the many not-very-supportive comments from our Lib Dem posters and the evidence of briefings against MC by senior colleagues’ - where are these many posts? Most Lib Dems have been supportive of MC - it’s only Tory posters who are bad mouthing him. Which colleagues (plural) have been ‘briefing’ against Ming? Simon Hughes made some unhelpful comments in public (hardly briefing against) and got slapped down for them.
The constant barrage of sniping, spin, half truths and quotes from Iain Dale’s website is getting pretty tedious. There is no evidence at all within the Lib Dems that Ming is not going to be leader at the next election, so can we just get on with it?
That of course should be ‘CFUK wits’…
Because a party has to help set the perception. For example, Labour managed to create that imagine that the Tory pensions policy in 1997 or their Health one in 2005 were destructive ones. Hence people believed that the Tories wanted to abolish the state pension or privatise the NHS which wasn’t reflected in the policy. The Tories were stupid enough to let this happen.
64 6 73 Oh dear, you make about a good a job of checking the facts as your leader. This is the question
Irrespective of how you yourself might vote in a new general election, which party do you think is putting forward the best policies on …?
EDUCATION
Featherstone’s performance as a vote gainer in Haringey over the last ten years is absolutely brilliant. She does strike me though as a little bit opportunist. I’m not quite sure I’d like a leader who boasts about being supported by Tariq Ali.
RE 75: Nick Clegg I think you’ll find was caught briefing against him. There have been less than helpful comments from other Lib Dems as well.
75-”Which colleagues (plural) have been ‘briefing’ against Ming? Simon Hughes made some unhelpful comments in public (hardly briefing against) and got slapped down for them.”
According to the New Statesman, Nick Clegg.
Then if it’s true or not, well, I couldn’t possibly know.
But Ming has the full support of Clare Short now, so what’s the problem?!
80. Andrew, some comments designed to help Ming ended up being quite unhelpful. For ex Norman Lamb’s comment about other parties’ MP not being silent during PMQs looked extremely silly IMO.
77: I meant a little wider than that - if people really do care only about perception and don’t give a stuff about policy (as in my darker moments I fear they do) what’s the point of any of the work we do and the hopes we hold, at all, ever? Let’s just select the prettiest MPs as leaders and go sun ourselves on a beach somewhere. People get the politicians they deserve and part of me wishes we’d all of us, of all parties, just take our rosettes off and say “sod the lot of you, sort it out yourselves”.
The other part of me, of course, continues to work tirelessly towards the inevitable victory of liberalism
Is nobody going to give me a clue as to these three women’s *political* beliefs?
re 70
would you buy a used car from either of those men?
Why oh why are people talking up Featherstone??? Look, anyone who has worked with her or seen her in action realises she would simply be terrible as leader. To be honest, none of the women are particularly impressive. Clegg may be a bit rough around the edges, but he is arguably the best hope we have.
82 Ah yes, that “reverential silence” which, in the spirit of peebee comradeship, I’m delighted to extend to Peter
but have a few reservations about Dan 
75 - Dan when you stop referiing to people as ‘f*ckwits’ then perhaps you can start lecturing them on ‘reasoned debate’.
All parties ramp - I remember some rather excitable comments ahead of the Moray by-election. There is a constant stream of jibes aimed at David Cameron - as much if not more than are aimed at Ming. The difference is that the polls and the council elections seem to sauggest that Cameron is doing reasonably well.
Teather is dreadful on TV.
Shame on John Hayes, meanwhile, for referring to backers of the A-List as a ‘London chi-chi set’. I’m sure he knows that chi-chi is a derogatory Jamaican term for gay people (as in the notorious rap song urging people to burn the chi-chi man). It’s not just gay people who find the word offensive, but non-bigoted straight people like myself.
Until he used that particular phrase, his argument (about parachuting celebrities such as Adam Rickitt into marginal seats) was reasonable.
66 John O. Meowwwwwwwww
Now my friend … you haven’t been snapped throwing the arahs down at the “Red Flag” in Cabinet time have you?
84 ukpaul. Do politicians have “beliefs” anymore?
RE 70, Interesting article. I do believe faith schools have a place, however you run into problems where they are the only choice.
I see no problem with children being given a bible and being expected to carry it. It is after all a text book.
As for creationism, it is strictly true to say Darwinism is a “faith” position as is creationism, because you can’t prove Darwin’s theory of evolution without a time machine. I also understand there is some evidence which contradicts it.
The issue I have with creationism is not that it is taught but how. It seems obvious to me as a religious person that I have absolutely no idea how long God’s days are, and as far as I no there is no evidence to suggest any one else has any idea either. Once you release the creation story from silly constraints it does not differ that much from what science tells us, and adds a few useful home truths as well. (Like we all need a day off).
Still the world is full of religious nutters who are looking so hard at that little pore on the leaf that they have not noticed it is a leaf, attached to a tree in a forest.
Interesting.
I think Sarah Teather played a much greater role in holding Brent East at the general than in winning it at the by-election, when of course the campaign was run by Lib Dem HQ.
Incidentally she wouldn’t be there if the Party had followed Ming’s apparent requirement not to start campaigning until the writ had been moved for a by-election.
Lynne Featherstone is incredibly determined, even more so than most MPs. She took the hard way to get elected (not that any route is easy): pick the seat you happen to live in and work it all the way to victory. And put up the funds - not that she’s rich.
Julia Goldsworthy is an economist. I think that should count for a lot in choosing a leader. The most important issue in any election is economic competence - except of course when the economy looks pretty good.
As for what their odds should be, I’ve no idea.
Are you coming round to the possibility that Ming might not last after all Mike?
Re. 36, those who refer to Featherstone as ‘Featherbrain’ might be slightly harsh, but I remember hearing her refer on Radio 5 to ‘the Birmingham Four’ (sic) and the ‘Guildford Six’ (sic).
As for Ming, I didn’t think his last PMQs performance was all that bad (in fact, it was rather good). The problem for him is that, after so many bad performances, the media won’t let a good performance stand in the way of their ‘Ming is cr*p at PMQs’ narrative, just as Park Ji Sung is written off by so many football commentators because of all the other bad buys (Bellion, Kleberson, Djemba-Djemba) Alex Ferguson has made in the transfer market over the past three years.
89. Richard, thanks for having pointed it out. Myabe he’ll get a protest email soon…..
89 - I didn’t know that. And to be fair to Hayes, the phrase does have a longer-established use to mean expensive/exclusive/fashionable.
Speaking as a Cornishman, amidst all this within-the-M25 admiration for Julia Goldsworthy it might be noted, that back home in her constituency, she is wildly unpopular in certain quarters. The Goldsworthy-haters claim she isg a media-obsessed flibbertgibbet who fiddles while Redruth burns (you know what I mean). Actually, I think this might be unfair to her- she’s young and keen and bright - but nonetheless that is the growing perception fron Cornwall - that she’d rather be rollerblading in London than rolling up her sleeves in Camborne.
Another thing. The lib dems take Cornwall for granted. A lot of people west of Launceston are starting to detest them for doing nothing for their impoverished constituents. Goldsworthy could therefore lose her seat anytime, which doesn’t make her a great bet for leader, either.
90 - Methinks Fifth Amendment time (gentlemen please)
89 - re Chi-Chi - surely this kind of thing should be outlawed in the name of animal rights and inflicting indignities on dumb beasts.
“More people trust Cameron with Education, Pensions etc than Blair.”
Anthony Little (64) - your remark does not help your leader very much, does it? Most people trust anybody on any subject rather than Blair.
I thought he meant the spanish usage…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chichi
Random All most voters can do is decide on perception (ie Mr pigeon, on what they think are the policies). Few have the time or opportunity to throughly research party policy and its possible effects. They can only use their experience and expectations and measure those against the policy as they perceive it.
If their perception is misguided then that is the fault of the party that proposes it, as either a purposeful mis-selling or poor campaigning. The parties have a duty to engage with and to try to inform the voters whatever their abilities or aptitude.
The condemnation of the electorate for being misinformed or intellectually so challenged as to be perpetually misguided, has been used as an excuse by extremists of all sorts to pull down the democratic edifice.
And it is nonsense of course as only the truly misguided or terminally desperate would allow their democratic rights and duties to be removed for their own safety, permanently delegating the people/party/politburo who know best to make political decisions on their behalf.
Beth at 17, you’re being sexist. How would you like it if we men started saying that certain unambiguously positive traits were ‘masculine’.
Still you can’t get away from the fact that many people, including men, myself included, think there should be more women in politics. And looks win votes, and publicity, particularly for young women.
95/100. Oh well, I thought I could have found another target other than your MP Book Value
Sean, no leader is going to lose their seat in a general election. They get a massive boost, of some 5,000 votes, because they are so well known. Why this should be I don’t quite understand, I would have thought they would have as many haters as admirers.
That doesn’t preclude potential leaders losing their seats before the contest of course, as the Tories know all too well with Portillo.
101 “And it is nonsense of course as only the truly misguided or terminally desperate would allow their democratic rights and duties to be removed for their own safety, permanently delegating the people/party/politburo who know best to make political decisions on their behalf.”
That was irony, right?
83: random - yes, we all have those moments, I think. But people are generally not that simple. They think policy important, but are suspicious that they are actually hearing firm promises that will actually be implemented and work, since their media-fed perception is that we’re all lying bastards (something which we assist by slagging each other off all the time) and everything is a disaster anyway. Also, they are too busy with their own lives to spend much time analysing stuff. So they go largely on perception (including a perception of being snowed by a cosmetic job), but occasionally they hear a policy they really like and that shifts their view.
Ken Livingstone is a good example of what I mean. His popularity is mostly image (”fearless, sometimes outrageous, controversial chap who stands up for London”), but it also reflects the fact that he decided on an initially controversial policy (congestion charging) which both his party’s Government and the local press opposed, stuck to it, implemented it, and up to a point it’s worked. Even people who don’t like the policy are quite impressed - “blow me down, he said he’d do it and he’s done it”. This gives him credibility when he says he’ll do something else, like more local policing.
anna - sorry, didn’t catch your name or I’d have twigged, was hoping to put the face to the name. Apologies for missing your point of information! - I think I was worried about running out of time.
103 - I’m not saying he’s particularly tolerant: he might not listen to all that much Buju Banton though
96. Your not the first person i have heard say that
Peter @ 100
perhaps a mixture of the Castillian and French elements?
“I’m sure he knows that chi-chi is a derogatory Jamaican term for gay people (as in the notorious rap song urging people to burn the chi-chi man). ”
Actually, I imagine very few non-Jamaicans know that. I’d take it to mean much the same as “the chattering classes.”
81 - so far as I know, the New Statesman have not alleged that Nick Clegg is briefing against Ming. What it reported was what Kevin Maguire says he heard when listening into a private conversation Clegg was having on his mobile.
All the pointless speculation about Ming (and pointless speculation is of course the raison d’etre of this site!) is the usual background noise supplemented by the usual partisan bickering.
I’ve no idea what the future will bring for Ming/Cameron/Prescott. All I do know is that if, in 6 months time, we looked back on this thread we’d realise how inconsequential our daily chit-chat is. (Though none the less enjoyable for all that, Mike!)
Afternoon all :). Another day, another series of anti-Menzies postings on this site and, yes, I watched “Dead Ringers” as well last night. I think sometimes we forget that both CK and Paddy were similarly vilified – it’s called satire and even the great Cameron isn’t immune. To be honest, I’d rather Menzies was lampooned than ignored.
As far as the subject of the next LD leader is concerned, I’ve not given it much thought. A lot will of course depend on how we do in the GE. Back to 30-35 seats and we might not have many runners though I suspect Nick Clegg would be one of the more likely survivors. 50-60 seats and there are more options and I don’t discount Lynne Featherstone at all and she could be a serious option against Clegg and Huhne.
CK was in Parliament for 16 years before he became Party leader compared with 14 years for Blair and 18 for Menzies. The Conservatives don’t believe in allowing the wine to mature and have over-promoted the likes of Cameron and Osborne who are still as ripe as green bananas and have yet to be tested under anything approaching hostile fire such as in the heat of an election campaign. It astonishes me that some consider Cameron to be Prime Minister material when he has only served as a second-rank Shadow Minister for a couple of years. Compare that with the experience of Blair and Major before they got to No.10.
66 - always a joy to be name-checked by you, John. Think local, act global: wheelie bins matter, believe me.
On topic, I think all three are terrific assets to the party… though I’m not sure I can see either Teather or Goldsworthy taking over from Ming - they’ll be too old by the time he’s retired
Cameron might be inexperienced, but remember that Blair, with all his experience of the frontbench, had no experience of government whatsoever, which Cameron does as a special adviser.
113: “It astonishes me that some consider Cameron to be Prime Minister material when he has only served as a second-rank Shadow Minister for a couple of years.”
Don’t run the man down unfairly - you’ve forgotten to give credit for his time in big business, as bag-carrier for that odd digital tv sock monkey…
One of the biggest problems for the Lib Dems in the next election is that based on the latest YouGov/Telegraph Poll on 25/5 none of the Women Contenders (Teather/Goldsworthy or Featherstone) would be MP’s if they continue in their current seats. Two of the seats would return to Labour and one would be a Con. gain. This would be a problem also for the men as Huhne and Clegg also go.
Lib Dems basically need to select from their top ten safe seats to, somewhat, guarantee their chosen leader is an MP.
Of course the poll could be wrong!
Clegg has a 21% majority: which poll is suggesting an 11% Tory:LD swing??
I don’t think anyone can accurately judge LD seats from the UNS indicated in polls, even if the polls are accurate. Featherstone is now in a very strong position in H&WG, and I’d expect her majority to increase. The political situation also looks good for Teather if she goes for H&K - the one thing that could stop her would be a significant Conservative recovery splitting the anti-Labour vote, but I doubt that’s likely. In the locals, the LDs achieved a dominant position in the wards making up both constituencies.
117 - I don’t think most Tory contributors on this site would say uniform national swing is very useful indicator of which particular seats might fall on a given swing even though they would strenuously argue that a lot would fall. If you look at the most marginal Lib Dem/Tory seats in 2001 for example, results in 2005 ranged between comfortable Tory gains like Ludlow via “as you were” results like Somerton, to sizeable increases in the Lib Dem majority like Mid Dorset right up to devestastating results like North Norfolk.
People sitting on small majorities might or might not lose their seats were a swing against their party to occur, but it is not a question of plugging the numbers into the calculator.
Isn’t Sarah Teather’s seat (
75 - And how old are you if I may ask Dan?
RE 106, Nick you are right, in the sense that what the policy is can be irrelevent if you think it either won’t be implimented or if it is it won’t work.
The public think politians are all liars because frankely some of them are. I remember hearing Dr John Reid talk the largest load of rubbish about Conservative policies, with the obvious aim of getting votes.
When I ran for student union president (on a party independent platform) I heard that Labour were putting it about that I was racist and homophobic. This even though one of my running mates was a Tanzanian of Indian extraction.
Part of the reason for distrust then is the anything to win culture that exists amoungst some politicians. (Obviously I tend to see it from my point of view as it is easier to notice)
75. I’m flattered to be referred to as ‘younger and more excitable’..I’m afraid I’m actually over 40! As for the excitable bit you will have to ask my wife.
Not-very-supportive comments from Lib Dem posters over the last few days have come from (sorry to name names) Beth, Mark Senior, SBS, Lewis, ukpaul, and of course Mike Smithson himself.
I must say that Ms. Featherstone puts the fear of God into me. I have only seen her on TV, and heard her on radio, but she seems to be incredibly sure of herself and intense in a “Tony Blair” type of way. My in-laws live in her constituency and voted Lib Dem, but with strong reservations about Ms Featherstone herself (after meeting her).
I am sure people who know her personally will now tell me that I have gained entirely the wrong impression of her, but surely most people will only be able to judge her on what they see in the media, just as I do.
It’s a bit like the stuff that we hear about Gordon Brown being a charming man in private, but having a rather dour public image.
Incidentaly, I don’t have a problem with any of the other LibDem women mentioned in this thread - they don’t frighten me away from voting LibDem at all. (Neither does Ming!) Of course, I can’t say the same for the policies . . .:-)
Ignore post at 121. The posting system got the better of me again.
Brest East is being abolished for the next GE, so where will Teather go? Will she still be an MP in the next parliament? Will she be moved to a ’safe’ LD seat? What do the Lib Dems on this site think will happen to her?
Like Observer said, I expect Sarah Teather to fight Hampstead & Kilburn and win it.
126: The point was partly addressed by observer in 119. The wards in Brent East will be distributed among Brent Central and Hampstead & Kilburn. On this year’s local results, Brent Central looks a likely Labour seat with the Lib Dems in second, but in H&K the Lib Dems were in the lead. Various estimates of the notional 2005 GE result for H&K (e.g. those calculated by Anthony Wells, Mark Senior, and other PBers) make it neck-and-neck between Labour and the Lib Dems with the Tories in a respectable (>20%) third. H&K looks the better bet for Teather, but neither seat is exactly a certainty (not that Brent East is either, though).
127. I agree wiht you. I expect her to defeat a new Labour candidate in Ham&Kil next time.
Re: 86. Well I’ll argue against Clegg. I have only ever heard him whinge on the radio - he appears to have no other public tone of voice.
As to his actual political talent and general nouse, he was given the Home Office fiasco on a plate and failed to do anything with it at all - totally eclipsed by David Davis - a man who FAILED to get the top job in the Conservative Party. Do you really want Clegg as your leader?.
I realise that he is generally considered to be the great hope for the future, and that I am probably missing something (everything?) about the man’s appeal, but petulant, whining politicians really get my goat.
Lin (not that impressed)
113 - I find Dead Ringers’ “Werthers Original” take on Ming very amusing, but certainly no more damaging than their take on Cameron’s “Conservatories”.
116 - I think Cameron’s KGB recruitment thing over the weekend was hilarious and has raised more than a few chuckles in my office. The immediate reaction was, “er, Dave, do you not think that when Russian holidaymakers approach a 19-year-old gap year student at a Black Sea resort and quiz him on aspects of British life, they are quite possibly making conversation rather than trying to bring down western capitalism?” I admit I am not terribly active in the intelligence community, but I was not aware trawling the beaches for school leavers was a key tool used by Soviet agents. It’s all a bit silly and tomorrow’s chip paper, but I thought it was an amusing insight into the born-to-rule mentality.
124 UKPaul is a troll. Helpful comments have come from Tabman, BV, Valerie, Dan, James, Random, Stodge, Joe Fairw, Richard etc etc…
Oh…didn’t see Observer’s post at 119. Thanks for the replies anyway.
It’ll be an interesting seat to watch for the Lib Dems.
88 - Max - I never had you down as so sensitive - I thought it was quite a clever play with words (ok then a cheap jibe
). But the point still stands.
Ramping of course goes on - I would expect no less on a political website. But there is no evidence that Ming will go before the next election - and no evidence of colleagues plotting against him - see the posts re Clegg above.
He’s here for the duration - so people better get used to it.
132. And from Clare! Don’t forget her!
134 - On the substantive point I agree. I don’t see Ming going before the election either. Whether that turns out to be a good thing or not from your own parties point of view remains to be seen.
RE 134, Dan I hope Ming stays for two reasons.
1. I hate ageism. Old leaders are frequently wiser.
2. I am a Conservative and I think he will do us good.
I also hope John Prescot hangs on, but in his case only 2 applies.
As for a replacement to Ming, and should it be a woman? I wonder. Personaly I do not care for tokenism or positive discrimination. If they are better than the men they are standing against of course. Otherwise no.
Coming soon in the new episode of the SSP soap opera:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/5029364.stm
Do you think Joan Collins will make a guest appearance for the last episode?!
114 - Stephen, Indeed they are….but go-ahead Elmbridge have had them for years :). In any event, we “Cabinet” members should stick together, eh
Slight change of subject , if the Conservatives in the B/C byelection choose someone non local , will not this lay themselves open to criticism by the Conservativehomers as well as possibly the Lib Dems who will be able to point to the Cheadle byelection where the Conservatives criticised Mark Hunter for not living in the constituency although of course he lives within Stockport Borough .
Look at this, a columnist in the Guardian being favourable to a Tory leader:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1785612,00.html
Admittedly the person who wrote it worked at the Daily Telegraph but still…
136: Put it this way - Ming’s greatest window for success is during a post-Blair backlash against young telegenic smiley politicians who offer style over substance. If, like me, you expect that sort of a backlash to happen then it would be daft to have Ming as leader during the period before it starts, only to ditch him just when the game swings his way.
And if that backlash happens then it’s going to be pretty grim being David Cameron, any flavour of Milliband, or Nick Clegg…
Sorry that should be Grauniad not Guardian.
141. It was written by Max Hastings!