What’s behind Johnson’s deputy leadership move?
June 2nd, 2006
-
Is this the prelude to something bigger?
Alan Johnson, the 13/1 second favourite to become Tony Blair’s successor, is making a move this weekend that will heighten his profile within the party and could well be a springboard to a top job bid.
A much-trailed interview to be shown on GMTV on Sunday has him declaring that his interest in becoming Deputy - should John Prescott step down. He says; “People have asked me if, when there is a vacancy, if I’d be interested in that vacancy and I’ve said quite honestly: yes, I would.”
Johnson goes on to say that he “very much hopes” that Prescott will continue and and he is “a world away” from any campaign. All very loyal and all very astute.
-
For while Johnson has the benefit of being a fresh face he is still relatively unknown. His comments, which interestingly are being released two full days before the interview, will put him up the media agenda this weekend and help establish himself as a serious player.
When questioned about the top job Johnson, quite wisely, rules out speculation that this is what he is after.
Johnson is a former London postman who rose to become the youngest General Secretary of his union. He has only been in the Commons since 1997 but is hugely popular amongst his fellow MPs which could be crucial. He’s also got his trade union background that could help in any election.
For the electoral college that decides Labour’s leadership and deputy leadership is split three ways: MPs and MEPs; the affiliated trade unions; and the membership as a whole.
Quite how Johnson would convert his deputy ambitions with a leadership bid proper depends very much on the circumstances at the time. What this news does show is that he is ambitious and he’s sharp enough to get himself on the media agenda. The line his team is peddling about how he used to deliver the mail at Dorneywood is brilliant.
If there is going to be a contested election to replace Blair then Johnson is very well placed. Last month I backed him at 18/1 to replace Blair.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Your consistent betting against Gordon Brown seems to be paying big dividends Mike. I note that the prices on Reid and Milliband are not far behind Johnson though.
1- But Reid and Milliband really don’t have the base within the PLP or credibility with the broader Labour party that Johnson would have, indeed I don’t think any “Blairite” (in the Reid, Milliband, Milburn etc… mold) would be competitive outside of the PLP section of the vote, and while he has been a close ally of the Prime Minister Johnson’s politics place him on the “soft left” of the Labour party and its from there that I think any credible challenge to Brown, for the leadership, will come… from candidate likes Hain, Benn and Johnson.
What is more of the “soft left” candidates who might challenge Brown, Johnson is far and away the strongest and, apparently the most eager to do so.
I have long believed Johnson would be a far more capable deputy, or even leader, than Reid, Prescott or Miliband.
2. We must have different ides of “soft left”. My “soft left” idea was Frank Dobson and Clare Short, not Alan Johnson
I think that it’s very tempting to look simply at the Labour Party through categories of Blairite/Brownite/Soft Liberal Left/Hard Left and assume levels of support according to the dominant thinking of the day. Other factors such as geography, personality and raw pragmatism can create all manner of alliances. Often dislike for an opponent can be as big a driving force as any.
I was recently at a Labour Party event addressed by Ken Livingstone whereby he near as much threw his full support behind David Miliband in a future labour leadershop. Through some eyes this may seem odds, but when you consider Ken’s pathological dislike of Gordon Brown and the personal and family histories it’s less of a shock.
Peter Hain’s politics should be ideal for a soft left challenge, yet he is disliked and mistrusted among many in the PLP who on policy terms should be very supportive. Benn has shown no amibition for the top job whatsoever, including refusing a promotion at the last reshuffle. He’s well thought of and a very capable Cabinet Minister, but that’s it. In my view, only Johnson seems to have the appetite, clout and popularity to offer a credible challenge.
Johnson is quite formidable - an ordinary bloke, sharp enough, and apparently capable (also good at putting off unpopular decisions). I don´t see him getting the top job though.
I totally agree with Peter’s anaylsis, but with one caveat … he won’t get the top job but very well might just get the second one!
Am I alone in thinking that Johnson wouldn’t make a move like this without being very sure of his ground? It suggests to me that he has high level support. Is it too conspiratorial to imagine that he has been given the green light for his move by No 10, or allies thereof?
8. Sure he has a queue of influential supporters, but doesn’t make sense for No. 10 to weaken Prescott further (which is what Johnson’s remarks must surely do). If I were Gordon Brown on the other hand, I could think of nothing better than a) getting rid of closest rival to the number 2 job and b) talking up a Deputy Leadership election, and with it increase the pressure for a simultaneous Leadership vote.
9. Harry G, a possible problem for Gordon could be if Harmann stands (as it seems she wants stand) and the media portrays her as the “Brownite” candidate with Johnson portrayed as the “Blairite” candidate. Johson would beat Hermann and it could be portrayed as a Brown defeat (if the media are in an anti Gordon mood) even if she loses just because AJ is better.
A Harman-Johnson scrap would be a very bitter contest, not least in the constituency parties (or what’s left of them) whose membership probably still thinks in late 20th century terms - I daresay there’s already a lot of pressure being applied to women Labour MPs not to nominate any male candidate in the Deputy Leadership election whenever it comes.
At bottom, politics is the politics of identity, whether race, class or religion - or gender. However much we wish it weren’t so and however much a Blair or a Cameron might try to persuade us otherwise.
6 - “Johnson is quite formidable - an ordinary bloke, sharp enough, and apparently capable (also good at putting off unpopular decisions). I don´t see him getting the top job though.”
I still can’t see anyone beating Brown either. However, in 1975 or 1989 you could probably have made more or less the same remarks about Callaghan or Major…
12 BV Me neither. If anyone were to do it, I would say Hain. But it will be Brown.
11. From the Sunday Times, a short part of who’s leaning to who:
Glenda is still defending Prezza.
12 - BV, Agree about Major in 1989, but by 1975 Jim Callaghan was already the clear favourite to succeed Wilson.
While there is a good argument for a female Deputy Leader, I think a sizeable proportion of Labour members and trades unionists are still quite sexist which makes this unlikely. Brown is so cautious and risk averse that I cannot see him backing anyone but a clear winner. They’ll probably talk up HH and let it be known they support her, but not publicly. I don’t think that HH is sufficiently popular either and is not seen as sufficiently Labour material (people still bring up her children’s education).
Don’t rule out Hilary Armstrong! She has impeccable Labour history and powerful union contacts. Her Social Exclusion brief will help her rehabilitate herself after a miserable spell as Chief Whip and hits all the right buttons for the party. All about the timing though - she’d need 2 years at least. Perhaps a longshot to keep an eye on if Prescott staggers on.
15 - fair enough: it was before I was born so I shouldn’t trust my memory
What’s behind Johnson’s deputy leadership move? A desire for power and influence. But I just can’t see him beating Brown to the top job. I don’t know if he’d stay deputy leader under Brown either, maybe he will so Brown can keep the more Blairite MPs happy, or just so he can keep an eye on him.
Another negative for HH is her husband Jack Dromey - disliked in the trade union movement and mistrusted in the PLP.
re 15. In 1975 I think that everybody believed that Wilson was going to carry on until the next General Election. Few people were talking of a successor and Callaghan, anyway, was older than Wilson.
The resignation the following year was a complete bomb-shell.
Mike Smithson
20 - True enough. But a nice little waddle down memory lane….
Interesting move by Johnson. Perhaps he thinks that elements in the party are going to move against Prescott and wants to have it known he would be interested.
Labour really need a consensus candidate to replace Prescott, the continued pressure on him is damaging the govt and any contest must not be allowed to slip into a Blairite/Brownite skirmish.
“Another negative for HH is her husband Jack Dromey - disliked in the trade union movement and mistrusted in the PLP.”
Henry G, do you have some real knowledge here? Harman is considered a lightweight inside the government and I always presumed her continued survival was due to Brown’s attempt to keep Dromey onside. If what you say is true, then Brown is wasting his time. Please … more detail.
23. Dromey is seen as another trade union careerist and really doesn’t have much support out there. He did a lot of damage prior to the local elections lifting the lid on the party funding crisis and many were appalled at the way he washed the dirty linen in public. I do think that this recent Guardian article is very revealing:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/funding/story/0,,1778604,00.html
Even Tony Woodley, far from a Blairite, wants rid of JD. I cannot for a minute believe that the Brownites think Dromey can deliver him any serious support.
Reid is WAY too Scottish to be PM. As soon as Labour get near to electing him, West Lothia will rear its ugly head - and as Labour are (rightly) very scared of that question becoming salient - Labour MPs will surely run a mile from the ‘attack dog’.
I think Labour can just about get away with ignoring the West Lothian thing for a few more years, if they don’t foist obviously Scots leaders on the rest of us. Gordon Brown is a gamble in this respect, but as he’s already a national figure they might be OK. Reid just sounds so Glaswegian, electing him would be suicidal. For this same reason I think the English Johnson might be a very good bet.
Eventually of course Labour will just have to confront West Lothia. Maybe it will happen when the Tories next get in (which could well be 2010, judging by current events) and legislate for ‘English votes for English laws’.
What will Labour do then? They will be confronted with eternal Opposition, unless they can unite with the Lib Dems. Should be interesting.
Mike @ 20 - this is before my memories, but as I understand it virtually everyone was in the dark over Wilson’s Alzheimer’s - and his political position was fairly secure. This is very different from either Thatcher or Blair. In both the latter cases it is clear to almost everyone that they are travelling in a cart one wheel short of a full complement.
As an aside I was an editor with BBC News on the day Wilson resigned in 1976 and wrote the newsflash that first brought the story to the world. When our guy at Westminster phoned with the news we were so shocked that our first thought was that this was a set-up.
While I prepared the newsflash a colleague called the Westminster office back to confirm the identity of the BBC man who had made the call.
16.”Don’t rule out Hilary Armstrong! She has impeccable Labour history and powerful union contacts”
and she’s one of the most useless and incompetent politicians out there. If she’s a runner, I could just say “poor Labour!”
28. That could well be her selling point Andrea. Which leader wants a talented and ambitious number 2? See Blair/Prescott!
29. Interesting, Harry G, you could have a point there.
29. But the party won’t elect her! If anything they will want a strong no. 2 to keep the PM in check.
You may be right about Dromey, Henry G, but Blair officials I’ve talked to are convinced his “dirty-linen” washing was carried out on Brown’s behalf.
32. Blair’s camp is always paranoid. And Brown’s camp too.
Sorry to hark back to last night’s rather angry exchanges about Question Time - but I would have thought the greater imbalance came from the fact that three of the five panellists were on the payroll of the Times - though Michael Winner clearly doesn’t read the paper he writes for if he doesn’t know who Michael Gove is.
With Johnson effectively declared, all other candidates become also-rans - he’ll walk it (apologies for the mixed metaphors). How he translates that into a Leadership bid is to say that he’s standing against Gordon in order to satisfy the desire for a contest. As Deputy Leader he is the most senior figure, and he pledges to stay on as Gordon’s Deputy if Gordon wins; it’ss be portrayed as a friendly fight, entoirely undivisive. And when there’s a contest you just never know…..
33. And of course that doesn’t mean that they aren’t out to get them!
True Andrea but I believe this one. Team Harman never acts without Kevlar arse-cover.
Redwood in Cameron assasination move or… How Green Were My Tories
If John Redwood gets his way & drivers are allowed to make left turns at red lights in the Tories’ truly loony road plans I give Cameron about 10 minutes on his bike before he’s mown down.
Talk about lack of policy direction. Great to see Redwood’s still totally inept politically. Don’t give him long after this cock-up.
36. Oh, yes. IIRC even Christine Shawcroft (who’s certainly not a Blairite) agreed with them about Dromey’s aims (but I can’t find her piece at the moment).
31. I agree it’s not likely at the moment, just think she could have a greater chance than many think if the ‘female deputy’ argument takes off.
Think about the 3-way electoral college:
PLP (Chief Whip gives unrivalled access to MPs and their lesser known strengths/weaknesses/interests)
Trade Unions (Former GMB union official, still very influential in the North East, daughter of a Labour MP)
Membership (Social Exclusion brief, potential for lots of talks at CLPs about core areas of political interest).
Would you lay Armstrong at 100/1 for me Tistoph when Betfair ever get round to running a Deputy Leader market?!!
40 “Would you lay Armstrong at 100/1″
Was that a sexist misprint for £100,000,000????
38 - ColinW - this was Tory policy before the last election and makes eminent sense. Anyone who has visited the States has seen it work.
There are far too many traffic lights in this country plus the stupid fashion of putting traffic lights on roundabouts!
32. I think there was a degree of self-preservation too.
34. Cookie, I wasn’t angry last night - not that you’re saying I am! - it was a number of others who oddly got their gussets in a twist. A curiously hysterical reaction.
OT… I was actually thinking about this as I had my coffee this morning. Why some people get all blowsy and hysterical and purse-lipped when it comes to racial questions. I see parallels with the Victorian reaction to sexual matters - a terrible inner fear which is symptomised by outward prudishness and disapproval, and bizarre over-reactions - like putting clothes around piano legs. The Victorians were scared of their own sexual demons, hence their hysterical repressions - perhaps some people who are very keen to shout racist, have repressed feelings of their own about race that they would rather not confront.
Just a theory - but I think Freud would definitely have found some of last night’s over-reactions very interesting.
To Mister Chip and Henry G (who both seem informed). what about the other Labour ladies (other than Harman and Hilary)?
Tessa Jowell: is she damaged by the Mills problems with Silvio? I don’t rate her very much, but she’s a loyalist.
Nanny Patty (aka the Health Secretary): I’m probably one of the few people who likes her….I suppose it’ll depend on what happens with the Health reform.
I suppose Clare Short is too “Clare Short” even for the most critic members, so I would leave her out.
Wllinborough Council- Croyland Ward
Con 655
Lab 488
UKIP 162
Greens 71
40.
Am alas not a betting man (due to lack of finances), but I agree she may be worth a punt, although she wouldn’t get even close to actually being elected.
42.
“We’re talking about more common sense, achieving quick wins,” said Mr Redwood. “These are improvements which would be safer and greener.”
His comments drew a sceptical response from the RAC Foundation. Edmund King, executive director, said that allowing cars to turn on red lights could be dangerous: “It works in places like Los Angeles because there you’ve got very wide roads, very few pedestrians, and virtually no cyclists.”
5. What do you mean family histories? Does Ken like DM because DM’s father was a mad tankie?
25. I can’t wait until an ‘English votes for English laws’ bill is passed - it will be a massive blow to Labour, and also a blow to the Lib Dems considering how many Scottish MPs they have. You may say the ‘English votes for English laws’ matter should be based solely on principle… well it’s also strategic (just as devolution for Scotland and Wales was for Lanour) and it can only benefit the Tories.
Although, this could all just end in the dissolution of the union, and I do NOT want that to happen.
47. Tistoph, how’d your last exam go.
51. Twas a steward of the bar! Hard and strange questions. But I think I did alright. Tis all over now, which is good.
From your name I am assuming you too are sitting exams. How did/are they go/going?
50. Dissolution of the union and a federal structure is now inevitable after devolution for Scotland and Wales. The current situation is inequitable and it’s more like the inequity will be addressed through an English parliament than a reversal of devolution.
52. “are sitting exams”
are there exams where you can’t sit whilst doing them?
49. Well I wouldn’t use that phrase, but yes, there’s quite a lot of time for David from people around the New Left at that time. David’s seen as open minded and thoughtful by Ken and is capable of referring to socialism while keeping a straight face. I seem to remember that Tony Benn also wrote very highly of him in his diary Free At Last. Perhaps Ken feels that the left of the party that they’ve been demonised by Blair/Brown for too long, and that at least they’d have an open door and fair wind with DM.
54. Sigmoidoscopy
54 - Of course there are, practical exams for one. As an examiner myself much of my work is watching students move around, up, down and whatever.
I think the phrase comes from the time when all exams were written therefore ‘to sit’ an exam was always an accurate description.
Is Livingstone much of an influence on the Labour left these days? He seems to be far more a populist than any kind of philosopher king.
56
54 - In English, all acadaemic exams are ’sat’ rather than ‘undergone’ or ‘taken’
Surely Hazel Blears is a potential Deputy Leader? A woman so can beat Harman; working class; northern; in tune with public on issues like ASBOs…
46. UKIP candidate seems to have drawn votes fairly evenly from Conservatives and Labour there - Tories down 6.9% on 2003, Labour down 5.5%.
45. Forget Hewitt. Remember her speaking slowly to the delegates at the recent RCN conference so that they ‘understand’…she’s like that with MPs. Jowell is very highly regarded and received a tremendous amount of PLP support during her recent difficulties with her husband. The one woman that could have had a genuine chance of winning the Deputy Leadership outright would probably have been Mo Mowlam.
61 - I fail to see the point of voting UKIP in a local election. I just see any vote for them as a protest vote with no rhyme or reason as to where it comes from, how and why.
58. Ken’s always thought of himself as a philosopher, economist as well as a scientist! His support is quite limited outside London and many will never forgive him running against the party. Watch out for big speeches on climate change and how it’s the new challenge for socialism.
48. They have the equivalent (right turn on a red) on some junctions in Germany without causing carnage. It’s a good idea if implemented correctly with a good education effort and clear signs.
62.”Remember her speaking slowly to the delegates at the recent RCN conference so that they ‘understand’”
so that’s why I understand her so well!
64. “Ken’s always thought of himself as a philosopher, economist as well as a scientist! ”
Ken also has an ego who’s quite large. Not that it’s always a bad thing!
44. Sean T - I had a look back at last night’s thread after reading the comment at 34 and I agree that people’s reactions were odd. Of course you were slightly inflammatory on purpose at first, but fleshed out your argument in time and it was a perfectly reasonable and valid one (and one that nobody else really addressed). It was acceptable to agree or disagree with it but you were unfairly maligned.
For what it’s worth I disagree, but then I’m an enthusiastic pro-Israeli philosemite so I would, wouldn’t I!?
61. Fred, the UKIP was the candidate in Wellinborough in 2001 GE and in Nottingham East in 2005 GE.
52. My exams have gone alright I think, thanks for asking.
I’m glad there over, it’s not too long until we’re off for summer now… the year seems to have gone unusually quickly for some reason.
Andrea, Jowell couldn’t win because of her husband; Hewitt because she drives people up the wall with her manner; Short because she’s too much of a disloyal drama queen even for Brown; and Harman because she’s known throughout the government as a lightweight manoeuverer. Blears is solid but lacks the charisma of a Reid or a Johnson. The next deputy leader won’t be a woman unless, like Beckett effectively did, she runs unopposed.
71. Mister Chip. Thanks.
Now I think I could propose the big “rentre” of the Venerable Helen to re-join the party and take over it leading it to……
By Chris Mead, PA Elections Editor
Tories made four gains in the latest council by-elections - one from Liberal Democrats and three from independent.
Their candidate Michael Taft scored a landslide victory to recover a Yapton seat lost in a shock result to Lib Dems at Arun District, West Sussex on the same day as last year’s general election.
Tories John Jarvis and David Jolley won from independent at Kerne Bridge Herefordshire County and Portishead West, North Somerset District.
But, also in North Somerset, Liberal Democrat Wendy Griggs gained from independent at Yatton.
Conservatives recovered a Croyland seat at Wellingborough from an independent who had been elected as a Tory but there was a swing to Labour since 2003.
RESULTS:
Arun District - Angmering: C 1052, Lib Dem 254, Lab 123. (May 2003 - Three seats C 886, 862, 733, Lib Dem 512; November 10 2005 by-election - C 846, Lib Dem 421). C hold. Swing 16.1% Lib Dem to C.
Arun District - Yapton: C 699, Lib Dem 205, Lab 87. (May 2003 - Two seats C 752, 737, Lib Dem 270, 264; May 5 2005 by-election - Lib Dem 1213, C 1179). C gain from Lib Dem. Swing 1.3% Lib Dem to C.
Herefordshire County - Kerne Bridge: C 482, Lib Dem 308, Ind 249, Ind 119. (May 2003 - Ind 863, C 433). C gain from Ind.
North Somerset District - Portishead West: C 488, Lib Dem 452, Lab 205, Ind 108. (May 2003 - Ind 898, C 198). C gain from Ind.
North Somerset District - Yatton: Lib Dem 812, Ind 749, C 678, Ind 267, Lab 104. (May 2003 - Three seats Ind 1607, Lib Dem 1388, 1251, C 1048, 872, Lab 612). Lib Dem gain from Ind. Swing 1.5% Lib Dem to C.
Wellingborough Borough - Croyland: C 655, Lab 488, Ukip 162, Green 71. (May 2003 - Three seats C 797, 766, 747, Lab 616, 576, 544; October 21 2004 by-election - C 469, Lab 445, Ukip 173, Lib Dem 105). C gain from Ind. Swing 1% C to Lab.
West Sussex County - Angmering and Findon: C 1500, Lib Dem 334, Lab 149. (May 2005 - C 2454, Lib Dem 1847, Ukip 588). C hold. Swing 23.2% Lib Dem to C.
There’s always a Margaret Beckett comeback to consider. Stranger things have happened.
64. I just do not understand why so many Londoners voted for Ken Livingstone to be mayor in the first place. I know he’s supposed to be very popular with some people but… Ken Livingtone as Mayor of London, it’s like something from a horror film.
68. Thanks Russell - though don’t worry about me, I’m used to a bit of light artillery. Comes with the territory. Makes for vigorous debate too.
I think last night’s reactions were very interesting. Examine my remarks and I reckon I made not one statement that could be construed as racist by even the most blue-nosed leftie thought-policeman - yet immediately aprons were clutched and handbags weilded and I was accused of being a racist, a xenophobe, of attacking Jews, gays and immigrants, of wanting Jews to wear yellow stars, and of being generally unpleasant. Etc etc.
Hell-o?? Seems some people can’t have an adult debate about race or Jewishness without acting like a bunch of girl guides confronting a spider. Weird. But fascinating, too.
76 - The reaction was weird, almost as weird as the atmosphere on QT last night (I still can’t work out what was amiss).
Anyway, suggesting that criticism of Frank Luntz was fuelled by anti-semitism seems to have confused the matter nicely!
77. I think you were right about the Michael Winner thing. He came across as a smug and bullying buffoon - and he poisoned the atmos - not least by browbeating Michael Gove, who is normally very deft nd witty and was last night rather plodding and obtuse. The others were just dull.
Hopefully they won’t have Winner back on after last night’s dreadful performance. Perhaps a gentile, or a Palestinian, instead.
Joke!
76 seanT. “Weird. But fascinating, too.”
A rather apt description of your Jewish comments from last night.
63. Ukpaul - I don’t understand why UKIP bother to contest local elections or indeed general elections. I can only assume they do it to keep the troops happy on the ground and stop them twiddling their thumbs for four years until the next round of Euro elections comes along.
But they would be better off, IMHO campaigning between Euro elections against the various nefarious activities of the EU and trying to build anti-EU sentiment within the country. That is of course assuming they are actually serious about achieving their stated aims…which having had some contact with them over the years (my brother was a GE candidate in 1997) I doubt.
45 -
Jowell is almost universally despised (and rightly so). She’s been pegged as a Tory in Labour clothing since the late 1980s, and never done anything to shake that image. Hewitt is less unpopular, and her years as one of Neil Kinnock’s acolytes still serve her well in some circles (those years carry bags for Kinnock are the only reason Hewitt, Reid and Charles Clarke have had ministerial careers). But there are too many negatives for her to win the necessary support - her work for Andersen Consulting, her lackluste term at the DTI and the thousand-and-one little objections it throws up for MPs and activists, and her association with privatisation and under-funding in the NHS.
Harriet Harman and Dawn Primarolo (both Brownite ministers just outside the Cabinet) are the best placed female contenders IMO, if only because they haven’t done as much to piss people off as the others mentioned (and they have, at least as far as most party members are concerned, been passed-over for promotion in favour of Blairite zombies). Margaret Beckett’s a has-been, Ruth Kelly’s a mad Catholic; I could tell you about the other women in the Cabinet, if only I could manage to remember their names. As for Clare Short, the thing that would hamper her most is still the tricks she turned in the mid-90s to get into Blair’s good books, attacking the left of the party in the hysterical manner reserved for turncoats (that’s why there was no rallying round her when she quit the Cabinet). And the fact that she did quit the government means the right won’t ever support her, no matter how much she tub-thumps for Brown, so she’s really got no constituency. If the party were minded in the direction of a rebel backbencher (and it very well could be at the level of deputy leader, especially if Blair is still leader), the more credible candidate would be Lynne Jones.
Jones has already indicated that she will run against Brown for the leadership if nobody else does, if only to ensure there’s a contest. She’s not well-known, but that would work in her favour - she’s got a voting record that would jive with most Labour supporters, but she isn’t the kind of self-promoting rent-a-quote rebel that gets up everyone’s nose and seems needlessly disloyal. If she wasn’t a member of the Socialist Campaign Group and had some ministerial experience, she’d actually be an excellent candidate for leader - a mother of two from Middle England, no hint of anything dodgy, fiercely intelligent and a strong performer both in the Commons and in the media - she’d cut Cameron off at the knees. Given that she is a member of the SCG, the leadership is out of the question - but maybe not the deputy leadership.
80 - It’s not so much why they contest the election which I can understand, it’s why people would vote for them to be on their local council. Other than as a protest what’s the point?
81. If Lynne Jones were that intelligent, she wouldn’t be in the Socialist Campaign Group.
83. You can have weird views and be very clever.
82. Yes I do see what you mean…it really is a little difficult to understand. A bit reminiscent of the Militant-inspired ‘nuclear free Rotherham’ etc. in the 1980s…perhaps the idea is that if they get control of e.g. Okehampton town council they will declare UDI from the EU….
81. If Lynne Jones were that intelligent, she wouldn’t be in the Socialist Campaign Group.
Not being a careerist doesn’t mean you aren’t that intelligent.
The bar is set pretty low in Parliament these days (witness David Willets’ nickname), but I can’t think of anyone on any of the frontbenches who has a better grasp of public policy.
81. Gregg, I’m a fan of Lynne Jones. Along with Simpson and Clark, she’s one of the best Campaign Grouper IMO. But I don’t see any Campaign Grouper getting enough support to win a contest.
As for Short, I agree that she managed to piss off almost everyone. You rightly mentioned her behaviour toward the left when she was in the government. I recall her strong defence of the decision not to endorse Liz Davies in Leeds in mid 90’s and when she attacked Alice Mahon and co during the Afghanistan War saying they would have tried to please even Hitler (or something of that sort).
n16 “Hazel Blears - in tune with the public”? - well it would certainly split the female vote, though most Blairite MPs would follow little Miss Blears above Harrriet, but men might quite possibly be put off by her. Lynne Jones - well ok as a stalking whatever but no one has really heard of her outside Westminster.
Alan Johnson has proved that mixing a union background, a safe pair of hands and a likeable approach to positively unpopular policies has shot him up the politcal career ladder. But there’s a lot of undercurrent support for Hilary Benn and somewhere along the line members would like to feel we’ve got candidates with some sort of left of centre ideology. So Peter Hain might just attract support on that for now - with the option for Hilary Benn to gain a greater role under Gordon Brown’s leadership. Either way it’s great at last that the Labour Party is seriously talking about post Prezza/Blair.
With Ed Balls scrabbling around for a seat as his Normanton constituency is destroyed by the Boundary Commission what plans perhaps for him to move to Hull!? Then Prescott and Mrs P could gain their rightful slots in the ‘other place’Lord Prescott of Dorneywood’ perhaps? or as has been mischievously suggested ‘of Horneywood’!
83. “If Lynne Jones were that intelligent, she wouldn’t be in the Socialist Campaign Group. ”
harsh and unnecessary attack.
70: “My exams have gone alright I think”
I hope for your sake they weren’t in English grammar or language…
Alright is not a word.
ALL RIGHT?!
(Sorry - pet hate of mine)
81. Sorry Gregg, that sounded a little rude of me. I meant politically/tactically smart.
The SCG seem to have entirely lost their way for a number of years now and don’t have way and fail to develop any clear thinking and alternative policies that are remotely credible.
The vast majority of SCG don’t seem to want to govern, not great for a leadership contender. Of course you can be influential without being careerist, but SCG was only formed around the Tribune split over Benn’s deputy leadership candidacy in the 80s and that looks very far removed from the current mpolitical situation. I think she’d have more impact and joy as part of the new Compass grouping.
91. Henry G. The members of SCG tend to be quite old. The majority of them will be over 60 by the next election. In last elections, they had more MPs standing down than joining them. So at this rate they’re risking extinction
70 - bluestudent - ‘alright’ is quite acceptable non-standard usage in English. It might be more neologistic than ‘already’ or ‘altogether’ but the fusion is the same.
The only reason to avoid it in written English is to avoid the need subsequently to defend your use of it.
87 -
I don’t see any Campaign Grouper getting enough support to win a contest.
Well, it depends on the circumstances. If the deputy leadership falls open while Blair is still leader, and the other alternatives are some flavour of New Labour, I can see it happening quite easily.
91 -
81. Sorry Gregg, that sounded a little rude of me. I meant politically/tactically smart.
Yes, I assumed that - and I repeat, not being a careerist is not necessarily stupid, even tactically (compare the achievements of the careerist Rab Butler with the non-careerist Harold Macmillan).
The SCG seem to have entirely lost their way for a number of years now and don’t have way and fail to develop any clear thinking and alternative policies that are remotely credible.
That’s not an unfair comment, but nor is it relevant to the issue of the deputy leadership (it does, as I said, rule out the leadership - although if someone from the left got into the deputy leadership, say, later this year, and Blair held out until 2008, then things could be different). We’re not talking about a candidacy to define a new political platform or capture the hearts and minds of the party or the country - let’s face it, nobody is going to do that. We’re looking for someone to balance the ticket and reach the parts the leader can’t reach.
The vast majority of SCG don’t seem to want to govern, not great for a leadership contender.
Now that is a unfair comment. Of course the SCG want to govern, but they want to govern as socialists - they don’t see any point in getting into government if all you’re going to do is what the Tories would have done anyway, or could at least have been forced to do by effective Opposition.
Of course you can be influential without being careerist, but SCG was only formed around the Tribune split over Benn’s deputy leadership candidacy in the 80s and that looks very far removed from the current mpolitical situation.
It has survived as a successor to the Tribune Group (which disappeared for a couple of Parliaments and now has, AFAIK, one declared member), and will probably die out soon (it’s running out of members), but it’s also one of the reasons Labour is in government - without it, even more traditional Labour voters would have stayed at home at the last two general elections.
I think she’d have more impact and joy as part of the new Compass grouping.
Which may well happen - given the recent merger with Catalyst, Compass seems to be drifting away from Brown and towards Old Labour, however much it may not want to.
81: “Primarolo not dony anything to piss people off” ? - LOL! Ever heard of Tax Credits? Labour would be a laughing stock if it elected her to deputy.
38-Colin W
‘If John Redwood gets his way & drivers are allowed to make left turns at red lights in the Tories’ truly loony road plans I give Cameron about 10 minutes on his bike before he’s mown down’
You obviously haven’t travelled outside the UK very much, as turns on red lights (by traffic on the inside lane) is common practice in many countries.
95 - In 1998 or 1999 (I think) Dawn Primarolo was voted ‘villain of the year’ or some such on Radio 5’s breakfast programme. This was quite an acheivement for someone who was at the time a relatively obscure minister. I think it was as a result of her completely stuffing up the IR35 issue for contractors.
She’s got an impressive track record of this sort of thing. But little notice is taken because the media aren’t all that interested in financial matters. It seems a strangely difficult subject to interest people in.
95 -
81: “Primarolo not dony anything to piss people off” ? - LOL! Ever heard of Tax Credits? Labour would be a laughing stock if it elected her to deputy.
Within the party - not doing enough to piss people off *within the party*.
Yes, but it’s a pretty lame suggestion for the solution to the UKs traffic problems. The Tory party is so petrified of upsetting the car lobby that this is the best they can do! It will certainly lead to a small increase in pedestriand and cyclist fatalities, and will cut car queues by some small amount, but at least drivers wont be upset. Ho-hum…
73. A good set of local by elections for the Conservatives. I note the recent trend of independents being wiped out is continuing.
71-Mister Chip
I understood that Harman was hated by large sections of the Labour party for sending her son to a selective Grammar School,miles outside her constitiency.
Just of out curiosity, but at least 60 MPs who voted Backett in 1994 are still in the Commons
100 - Fred, I do wonder if by their very nature it’s particularly hard for independents to hold on to or gain seats at by-elections. The established parties can pull in resources from the neighbouring area and unless the independent is patricularly well known and popular they are less able to mount a challenge. It perhaps reflect the growing professionalisn of local campaigning.
101 -
I understood that Harman was hated by large sections of the Labour party for sending her son to a selective Grammar School,miles outside her constitiency.
I’d forgotten about that. Although it was quite a while ago, and probably wouldn’t inspire that much hatred now.
90. & 93. Well spelling and grammar is not my strong point anyway - never has been. I suppose I should thank you for pointing it out, but not for the slight embarrassment caused.
I also noticed I wrote ‘I’m glad there over’ instead of ‘I’m glad they’re over’… I don’t think my English teachers at my old school would be very pleased.
PS. No, I’m certainly not doing English or any language at uni.
100 - Independents inevitably suffer in by-elections because to be an independent councillor you must, almost by definition, have a large personal vote which isn’t transferable to another independent who tries to succeed you. And it is hard for an independent to grab a seat from a party at a by-election rather than a “normal” council election as the party can channel resources from outside in a way that they can’t when a whole district is up.
106 - I see Max got in there before me. Completely agree with everything he said.
Left turn at red is a topping idea. It’s one of those small but jolly good things they do abroad that makes you think ‘why on earth can’t we do that at home?’
All the Tories have to do now is introduce: mixer taps for sinks, proper showers, junctions on motorways named by their distance in miles, electronic doors everywhere, and phone numbers memorizable by
name i.e. dial 800-476-GEAR.
Anyone able to think of any others?
OT, I note that rather splendidly one of the by-elections next week is in a two member district ward in Norfolk where BOTH councillors were recently suspended by the Standards Board over completely separate matters. One has resigned forcing the by-election and one is hanging on.
108. sorry, but I haven’t understood at UK traffic lights….what happens if I get a red traffic light? Should I turn in one direction and not the orher?
I’m a bit confused.
Andrea
In America if you are turning right at a junction, and the lights are red, you can still turn right if there’s no traffic coming along from the road to your left.
Swap this for the UK, as we drive on the left.
I hope that makes things clear.
108 - Bullfighting?
108 - Waiter service at bars? Air conditioned underground? Very ineffective cats eyes in the road? More stray cats about the place? Widespread fly-posting of huge pictures of gurning candidates during elections?
110 - In the UK, if you get a red light then stop. A simple trick when you know how. You sometimes get filter arrows which do allow you to turn one way but not others though (e.g. a red light preventing you from going straight on or right but a lit green arrow pointing left meaning you can go that way). In fact, I thought filter arrows made Redwood’s idea a bit redundant although not totally.
111. Seant, ah, ok, now it’s clear.
113. James, filter arrows could make the idea a bit unworkable. if the drivers in the opposite direction have a gree light to turn left and you’ve a red light to turn right, with his idea, you could turn right and the other driver could just drive over you.
James, I believe you aren’t taking this very seriously. Shame on you. An air-conditioned Underground would be good though.
Also, how about mobile phone reception in road and train tunnels, like they have in Switzerland. That rocks!
115. considering you drove on the left, I suppose you’ve to change all the direction I said
115 - Andrea - in the UK we drive on the other side of the road (ie on the left) - I think you might have your left and right’s slightly confused.
Andrea, er - I’m still not sure you’ve grasped the concept. But it is difficult to explain in words - you could only turn left in the UK on a red light, as we drive on the left. Obviously allowing left and right turns on red would lead to widespread death and carnage.
“All the Tories have to do now is introduce: mixer taps for sinks, proper showers, junctions on motorways named by their distance in miles, electronic doors everywhere, and phone numbers memorizable by name i.e. dial 800-476-GEAR.”
I HAD A DREAM THIS AFTERNOON … !
108 - the trouble with air-conditioning the trains is the heat has to go somewhere - usually into the stations, so you have to air-condition those too. It would be feasible on the shallow lines (Circle etc) but inordinately expensive for the deeper lines which are much further underground than systems in most other countries.
I heartily second the call for proper showers though! And I think we will get mobile reception on the tube before too long.
Mixer taps are good (and you can get them quite widely now) but without them we would miss the Schadenfreude of Americans working themselves up disproportionately about “crazy British plumbing”
118. yes, I know you like to be different.
But I was just trying to come up with a particular combination of filter arrows that could provoke lots of accidents with that rule.
Anyway, I think the tories could wait a couple of minutes before turning right and the world won’t die…..even if I know the right has a strong appeal for Redwood…..
119 - basically the idea is that if you saw a red light you couldn’t go straight on, but you could turn left, which at the moment you can’t unless there’s a filter arrow.
But as James says, the idea of filter arrows means you can already implement the idea at and only at the junctions where it makes sense.
91: “The vast majority of SCG don’t seem to want to govern, not great for a leadership contender.”
The SCG comes from the libertarian traditions of ginger groups in the Labour and Liberal Parties that have gone before it, right back to the Radical faction of the Liberals. So on a very important level, yes, they don’t want to govern, because they really do not believe in the idea of government. This line of thinking is so opposed to inequality, it opposes any kind of hierarchy and advocates absolute civil liberty. That is why these people in this tradition are still talking about a written Constituiton and a Bill of Rights, and annual elections and becoming a republic. They still cling to that Nineteenth-century utopian-socialist ideal of a co-operative democracy with virtually no government at all and everyone working together for the benefit of all. Appealing to some but impractical, and time and again it’s been shown that the electorate wants a firm hand in government, so as appealing as it may sound over certain particular liberty issues, this is always ultimately unpopular, as seen in the backlash against the 1960s Permissive Society.
I think mobile reception on the Tube was mooted, but 7/7 made people reconsider.
123. But filter arrows are an unecessary expense if you do what Redwood says - besides filter arrows are nowhere near as good as the human eye in detecting traffic. How often have you sat at a junction waiting for the lights to change, with no other traffic in sight? Stupid.
It works just fine in America, we should do it here. Deffo. This is a good tactic for the Tories, too, BTW.
What else good do they do abroad? How about a glass of water as soon as you sit down at a table in a restaurant. Very sensible. That should be in the Manifesto, page 1.
125 - it’s back on again now: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/4914220.stm
123. if the filter arrow is red, what happen? could I still turn on the left or not?
123 - green filter arrows generally mean you can go and have right of way (i.e. expect to see no pedestrians or cars in your way). Except at larger junctions with small slip-roads, these could not be used to achieve the same effect that turning left on red [no assumption of right of way] does.
128 - the arrow is either green or it’s switched off (in which case you can’t turn left), never red.
130. oh, we’ve red filter arrows too….do you have the yellow/orange too, right?
129 - actually, yes, you are right, the situations aren’t equivalent.
123 - There is a slight difference in that filter arrows are on automated systems whereas you could use some discretion with Redwood’s idea. For example, on a busy road where most people want to go straight on but some want to take a side road, you can only have a left filter if you actually prevent people coming the other way from turning right. Redwood would let you go left simply if you could see nobody in the opposite direction was going right. I am not sure how much of an issue it all is though and if it would be a real danger on some roads to have the rule, filter arrows do work nearly as well in many cases.
Sorry to go back and disrupt the thread slightly - but what advantages does a mixer tap have - I’m struggling to think of any?
131 - More than you ever wanted to know:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A9559407
We also need a wider range of snacks in this country - in the pub and the garage. In America you can get ten kinds of beef jerky, chili flavoured cashews, Japanese rice crackers with squid - in Britain it’s dry roasted peanuts and pork scratchings and that’s yer lot.
Expect to hear George Osborne proposing a Wider Availability of Beef Jerky Policy very soon.
134 - you can wash your hands in water at a temperature which isn’t actually painful
134 - Mixer taps mean you don’t have to choose between icy cold and scalding hot but can have a nice tepid halfway house.
135. thanks. Our yellow/orange is your “red and amber”.
137. Hear hear. The sinks in my parents’ house have two taps - one boiling hot, one freezing cold. And that’s it. You have to kind of shove your hand extremely quickly under the hot tap then shift it immediately to the cold tap to avoid being scalded.
Somewhat absurd. No? I like to think myself as a patriot, but burnt hands doesn’t seem a very sensible way of proving one’s loyalty to the British Way of Doing Things.
137/138 - Yeah, fair point - I clearly wasn’t really thinking!
There appears to be a developing consensus on mixer taps. The 2009 coalition talks are going to be a cakewalk.
140 - my kitchen sink has a “mixer” spout with two separate taps. However, it doesn’t really do enough mixing, so you can get simultaneously frozen and scalded. Clearly this is a major priority for cross-party cooperation.
140. All you have to do is put the plug in the sink hole, put some cold in, then put some hot in (or the other way around) until you get a reasonable temperature.
Well for those who fail to see the joy of two taps: PUT THE PLUG IN, then fill basin, wash, pull plug out, dry hands- see, simple really…
142 James. Surely the mixer taps have to give way to the red tap from the left ?!?!
142. PS. I’m sorry to have to scupper the idea of a grand coalition to tackle the tap issue.
144. But if you use the plug and full sink method, then you’ve got manky water lying stagnant, rather than lovely fresh running hot water at the right temperature from the mixer tap - which is ideal for shaving with, for example.
The mixer tap issue could be an opening for the Nationalists and the Lib Dems, if they play it right.
I see clear blue water on this issue.
Ouch.
ok, maybe I’m missing the point here again…my sink allows me to regulate the degree of “hot” and “cold” water…more or less like in the shower.
But it usually takes quite a lot to get the how water!
I reckon you would use less water with a mixer tap (quicker to just wash your hands from the stream than to fill the sink to a depth where you can immerse them). So anyone with a green agenda should have this as a top priority
146 - That is an issue we would have to leave to one side for the second term. Can’t do too much too soon. Deliverable targets. Turning around the supertanker. Key pledges. Etc.
148, I’d be careful if I were you Sean, the environmentalists will be at your throat for wasting water. It’s like leaving the water running whilst brushing your teeth.
150 - “btw, I think that right-turn on red is one of those things that varies from state to state.”
Yes it is.
Problem is that a certain kind of driver will decide that a “clear road” includes one where a pedestrian is waiting to cross - the same type of person who drives at full speed towards a zebra crossing you’re on the edge of, daring you to make them screech to a halt. To be fair, this is much less common outside London.
151 - Ahh, but when shaving (as seanT suggests) surely you would use more water (unless you shave particularly quickly or are Edward Scissorhands)