Sean Fear’s local election commentary
June 3rd, 2006
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The move to the Tories continues
The period from and including May 4th to June 1st produced a large crop of by-elections (37 in total). Of these, 25 were contested by all three parties. Over the month, the Conservatives won 24 seats - a net gain of 8, the Liberal Democrats won 6, Labour won 3 (a net loss of 3) and Independents, minor parties, and nationalists won 4, a net loss of 5. This was the best monthly performance from the Conservatives for some time.
The Conservatives have moved up significantly from the national equivalent vote share of around 36% which they had been winning in such contests over most of the past year.
What this means is that the Conservatives’ national equivalent share of the vote in May’s contests was somewhere between 39% and 43%. This increase confirms the trend shown in the main contests on May 4th, and in subsequent opinion polls.
Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, by contrast, are achieving a national equivalent vote share of around 25%. If this trend were to continue over the next twelve months, and into the next round of local elections in 2007, the Conservatives could expect to make widespread gains from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats; the Liberal Democrats, in turn, could expect to gain from Labour.
Thursday’s by-elections confirmed this trend:-
Arun DC, Angmering: Con 1052, Lib Dem 254, Lab 123 Con hold.
Arun DC, Yapton: Con 699, Lib Dem 205, Lab 87 Con gain from Lib Dem.
Herefordshire UA, Kerne Bridge: Con 482 ,Lib Dem 308, Ind 1 249, Ind 2 119 Con gain from Independent
North Somerset UA, Portishead West: Con 488, Lib Dem 452, Lab 205 Ind 108 Con gain from Independent.
North Somerset UA, Yatton Lib Dem 812, Ind 1 749, Con 678, Ind 2 267 , Lab 104. Lib Dem gain from Independent.
Wellingborough DC, Croyland Con 655 , Lab 488, UKIP 162 ,Green 71 Con Hold
West Sussex CC, Angmering & Findon Con 1500, Lib Dem 334 , Lab 149, Con Hold.
Sean Fear is a Tory activist in London
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Good news for Camron, good news for all Conservatives and good news for the country as a whole. I’m already impatiently waiting for the 2007 local elections.
Are there any more local by-elections due in the next month or so or is that it for now?
1. There’s one here in Lincoln on 29th of this month.
I wonder. Locals were just good enough to revive Cameron’s flaffing honeymoon. Labour scandals have never been off the front pages. But will it last? This is asking a lot of both Labour (who have to keep shooting themselves in the foot) and the Tories (who need both to reform and to appear all things to all men).
And weren’t the May elections affected by the Tories defending a relatively small number of coucils they control (think Richmond)? All the parties did worse where they were defending - but the Tories will be defending far more next year. Let’s see what happens there.
We are by-election nuts here in Norfolk & Suffolk at the moment - Holt in North Norfolk, Diss in South Norfolk, Heath Row in West Suffolk, a seat outside of Bury St Edmunds … and the sad news of a death of a Norwich LibDem Councillor means a by-election in Mile Cross too.
Peter - what do you mean by “flaffing honeymoon”? I assume you meant flagging, but I cannot see any evidence of that - either nationally, in the media or especially locally.
Guess what? The LibDems are claiming that Bromley is a two-horse race! Let the pointless ramping begin!
7 remember Moray.
By - election in for Lancaster City Council on the 22nd June, just read today that the BNP will be contesting the seat along with the Conservatives and Labour. I hope that their May results were just a ‘flash in the pan’.
2 - Yes but will you be voting for the Peake-ster?
5 - I think Peter is just getting a bit shirty because Cameron’s honeymoon is well on course as is the revival of the Conservative Party, while it’s his hero Ming
(and his one seat net gain on 4th May) that’s ‘flaffing’…
When will we hear on B&C?
You’ll probably see the result first on ConservativeHome.
10. Linda Nakamura (Hounslow Council) has been thrown out of the Libdems a couple of days after the election, if we eliminate her from Libdem’s number of total councillors, they would end on par with last time results.
But it wouldn’t be totally fair (even if BBC doesn’t compare with previous election, but considers defections too….so the tories are -1 in Islington even if they haven’t electec councillors in 2002)
11 - News 24 are giving the B&C selection story quite a high profile so as soon as it is official as to who has won the nomination it will be on there I would think.
BBC just said in the next few minutes.
I like it AHM - perhaps Peter believes Sir Ming is still enjoying a thrusting honeymoon?
Interesting piece Sean. It does show continued recovery for the Conservatives, but as with Blairs Mandelson project, much done, much left to do.
Sean,
Can we extrapolate a continuing trend from such a small sample of results? What do you say?
Thank you for another well-researched piece.
Bob Neill has won the B&C Tory nomination.
19. Thanks for the news, Gary Barford!
I think it’s a solid choice. He knows the area and he has contested election in the area.
They put through 2 A list out of three, chose another under the old system. Seems a well-done process and a solid endorsement of Cameron all round.
Good choice by the Conservatives, Good choice before by the LD’S, two local MEN, as it should be. Mind you, we all know which one will win and it should be pretty easy.
20, 21, Absolutely the right choice at the end of an encouraging selection process. Don’t know much about Mr. Neill apart from the basic biographical details. But I think someone was saying a few days ago, that he hails broadly from the party’s centre, and therefore is likely to be fully supportive of the leadership.
Great outcome…now there’s “only” the election to win (and convincingly!)….
Re 22. Before I get shot at dawn, can I change MEN to PERSONS!!!
Bob Neil has been selected to fight the B&C byelection
24. David(s). I thought you were launching signs and it was a complain against the lack of female candidates!
23. John, not sure who he backed this time, but in 2001 Neill backed Clarke over Duncan Smith.
27 Andrea - Thanks. That’s quite good enough for me! I did the same (despite Kuddly’s kamikaze campaign)
Clearly a massive rebuff for the A-List and a defeat for Cameron. Bromley & Chis Conservatives had the opportunity to increase the number of Tory women or BME MPs by selecting from the A-list of ‘brightest and best’, but instead decided to go for another middle-aged white man.
29 - Kevin, Please, surely you can do better than that
Old cynic that I am, my guess is if the local party had chosen either of the two A-listers who of course made the final shortlist, there would have been a wee bit of (synthetic) outrage that local sensitivities had been contemptuously ignored
My feeling from the Kerne Bridge result confirms that Sean is right. I was expecting the Independents to win, but their lack of organisation on polling day let them down. The Conservative vote though was clearly above expectations, I had already factored in the fact that they canvassed hard and got their vote out, but they ought not to have won so convincingly in my view, given the weakness of their candidate and council record.
There are rumours of several more by-elections to come in the West Midlands and Marches. There is one already underway at Wellesbourne in Warwickshire and other LibDem/Tory battles are on the radar screen …
Commenatator @ 18, thanks. Yes, 25 three way contests is a reasonable number (many more than you would usually get in one month). We’ll see how things turn out over the next couple of months, but I expect the Conservative vote share will stay pretty steadily around the 40% mark.
Concerning the B&C byelection, when will we know the final list of all the PPC’s?
33. I think Labour is selecting tonight too.
I’m not sure if the Greens are planning to contest the by-election. They contested the GE.
Thanks Andrea, have UKIP definitely chosen Nigel Farage?
33 come on Andrea do your stuff. (You can’t expect any one else to go to the effort of doing some research)
35. Chris D:
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_news/gen12.php?t=1&id=2196
Very amused on previous thread that Rik W states that 4-5 Tory MEPs will defect, or sit at independents.
He has been predicting defections to his party for some time; he does not have a strong record in prediciting defections. It will be interesting seeing if he is right predicting defections away from it.
If some do defect, which way will they swing?
30. John O, my comment was half in jest, as an antidote to all the ‘good choice’, ’solid choice’ comments above. I know by-elections are a special case (I remember Bermondsey and Greenwich), but I think the Conservatives could have taken a risk here in a safe seat with the party on the up.
38. Consodering the potention “leaver” are the ones who want to stay in EPP group, well, or they sit an independent within the EEP or they’ll join the UUP. They aren’t many choices if they want to stay in the EPP group.
Defecting to another party would mean leaving the EPP, so what would be the point?
37. Thanks Andrea, I had seen his name mentioned a few times on PB.com, did not realise that they had selected yesterday.
41. I see on Ian Dale’s blog that Labour selection is tomorrow, not today. I got the days wrong in an earlier post!
39 - Kevin, In that case you are half-forgiven ;). While things are looking encouraging, I incline to “safe is sensible” in this particular instance.
33 - Amongst the main parties it is only Labour to select. However, the writ for the by-election has not been moved yet (that will probably happen this week if they are going for a date of June 29, along with the writ for the Blaenau Gwent Parliamentary seat; the assembly by-election for that constituency has already been set for June 29) so nominations for the by-election itself are not open yet, which means the number of Independent candidates is uncertain at the moment.
36& Andrea, my computer is playing up and its taking forever to to do anything. By the time I managed to post that Bob Neill was the tory PPC for B&C the PB’s were already discussing the result.
44. thanks Gary.
Bob Neill is pretty hopeless. It will be hard for Labour to win but this will help us push the vote up. Farage will do well too because Neill is just the sort of opponent he wanted.
46 - If Labour couldn’t win Uxbridge in the midst of a post-landslide bounce, they’re hardly going to run the Conservatives close here. Even if Neill were as bad as you say (and I don’t think he is) the Conservative cushion should be very solid here.
BREAKING NEWS :
I am putting a health warning on this one, however I’ve now heard from 2 sources that the “Forest Gate” incident is looking like a cock up.
One source is saying that the Met are likely to start “backtracking” sooner rather than later.
……………………………..
Thanks Sean for another good piece.
46 - You seem to suggest that you are close to the labour campaign, is that the case?
If so all leaks of private polling will of course be treated in the strictest confidence, unless of course you peddle false numbers in which case we’ll boil you in oil and serve up your gonads on a plate.
48 - So that means more good news for the home office then. When it rains it pours……
47. Or Beckenham a couple of months later.
Is Bob Neill local though? He lives in docklands.
38 - SBS your patronising tone is not appreciated. I say things as I see them and as I hear them. I stand by what I said on the other thread and what I have said previously about Lib Dem defections to us.
The election of Ming has only deferred the inevitable and not for long I would venture!
YouGov rescues Prescott
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1223650,00.html
Straw rumoured to stand in the future deputy leadership contest:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2210011,00.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/04/nstraw04.xml
Sean, thanks for an interesting analysis.
“What this means is that the Conservatives’ national equivalent share of the vote in May’s contests was somewhere between 39% and 43%. This increase confirms the trend shown in the main contests on May 4th, and in subsequent opinion polls.”
The tories share of the vote in the local elections seems to be 1-7% higher compared to the lastest opinion polls, do you think that the opinion polls are underestimating them slightly or is this kind of variation with local results the norm?
55. Iain Dale was doing the BBCnews24 paper review, he mentioned that Jack Straw had managed to get himself in all the paper’s tomorrow touting himself for the deputy leadership.
Re: the Bromley and Chis candidates. I know the Lib Dem candidate pretty well. He’s a solid party man with an excellent track record of winning by-elections locally in Canterbury and now in London. Whilst we all expect a Tory hold I think Ben fits nicely into the Rennard cycle (plus he has Shaun Roberts as campaign co-ordinator, an excellent and proven winner in Kent). I think a good second place is very possible, expect the mention of “same old Tory party” in a Focus in a day or two
Interesting Chris - the Tories can’t have been helped by the fact their candidate lives north of the river on the Isle of Dogs…
Bromley and Chislehurst Conservatives had a choice between three excellent candidates and have selected a local chap with great political experience, and on the modernising wing of the party. Critics can hardly charge that the A list has been a failure as two of the three finalists were drawn from it, and the Lib Dems are going to find it difficult to ‘out-local’ Bob Neill on the ground. Looking forward to by-election day!
60. AHM, how much of an impact do you think that Nigel Farage will have on the tory vote in the B&C byelection? I noted that he is also a local candidate.
60 - AHM I agree. Bob is a good bloke and he will go down well on the doorsteps. He already has some profile as Assembly member.
61 - My experience has been that UKIP take as much if not more from the LDs as from the Tories.
A state funeral for Thatcher - don’t faint Alistair, she is still with us.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=824002006
61 - Not much at all, I shouldn’t think. UKIP’s only real hope for a good showing here rested on a divided Conservative Party, which could have come about if a candidate had been imposed by CCHQ.
I suppose UKIP could try and make something of the fact that Bob Neill is rather more sympathetic to Europe than most Conservatives, but I don’t see that being the determining issue of the election. Any impact at all will be marginal.
48- Jack W. That would not be good news (in a way) if it turns out to be true that it is a cock up.
I see there were 17 arrests in Canada for terrorism. Just so happens old two jags(sh) is over there at the moment.
63 - A richly deserved honour, Marcia, for the woman to whom the country owes the economic prosperity it currently enjoys.
63 - I knew Peter Kilfoyle was a malcontent, but for a sitting Labour MP to describe a Labour Prime Minister as having a “totally corrosive effect on the nation whilst in the grip of the arrogance of power” would seem to be worthy of suspending the whip wouldn’t it ? Nick Palmer any thoughts ?
Re 54, many thanks for that news Pintz, Secretly I suspect many more Conservative activist would love him to stay. His presence is likely to continuosly leach support from Labour and the longer he stays the more permenent the damage will be.
62&64 thanks.
63. I think that Mrs Thatcher was one of the most influential leader’s of the later stages of the last century, a fitting tribute to mark her achievements.
RE 65, DC, whilst no terrorists here is good news, it does not look good and spreads fear in the Muslim community which will be used by agitators against us. So in short if that turns out to be the case I expect some ones arsed to be kicked, and appologies to be made.
On the issue of the state funeral of Thatcher, raised by Marcia at 63, I am gratified that the honour of state funerals seems to go to Conservative prime ministers
That said there may be some merit in the suggestion though she did not do quite what Churchil did and csertainly was not held in as much universal respect.
I was however amused by this comment attributed to one Labour MP:
One Labour MP last night claimed the proposal proved Blair and his advisers in Downing Street had “finally lost contact with reality”.
I am pleased that Labour MP has finaly noticed something I noticed in 1996.
Maybe someone will then suggest that if Thatcher has a state funeral then Blair should also have one as he also won 3 out of 3 elections!
71.. Mike L - are you George Galloway in disguise?
Whatever you think of her it would be very hard to deny Thatcher the mantle of greatness. Not only was she the first woman PM (and basically the first in any major Western country) her policies and style have been copied right around the world even by her political enemies. Especially the crackpot ones… (policies and enemies I guess). About the only thing Kenneth Baker said I have ever agreed with was that “We will not see her like again.”
26, Andrea, Yes and that, but I thought someone might take it in the way it was not intended.
59. Dan, how long does Abbotts live in Bromley for?
From his address it seems he lives in Beckenham.
According to ALDC Yapton was a Con hold not a Con gain.
B& C - Betfair has Labour as rank outsiders, with odds of 100/1
75.
Yapton returned 2 tory councillors in 2003, then one of them died/resigned and there was a byelection in 2005 won by the LDs. Now the Libdem (Ian Menzies) resigned to ill health:
http://www.arun.gov.uk/cgi-bin/buildpage.pl?mysql=3073
Yapton was definitely a Tory gain. Technically, so was Croyland as the councillor who was elected as a Tory in 2003 subsequently became an Independent. I prefer to regard it as a Tory hold though.
72. Agreed. It was a joke! I just thought people might see some irony in Blair proposing it!
Sean re pour comment about 2007 Locals.
If you take may ICM and compare with 2003 ICM pmonth pre locals wyou get an 8% Lab to Tory and a 4% swing Lib to Tory.
I have looked at Unitary and District councils results for 2003
and applying a uniform swing gives 950 Tory gains around 600 Lab losses and 350 Lib dem losses .Even if it were half this level this would give Cameron massive extra momentum to see off any challenge from within the party.
Also a thought on Bromley and Chiselhurst.
I noticed that UKIP polled 11% in a local by election last week so with strong candidate they could poll 10 -20 %.