Johnson tightens to 6/1 as Straw enters deputy race
June 4th, 2006-
YouGov: 56% of Labour members want Prescott to stay
With the Observer reporting that Gordon Brown has been warned that his “long quest to become Labour leader and Prime Minister is at risk from the rising star of Alan Johnson..” there’s been a big move to the Education Secretary in the betting markets.
After Johnson started yesterday at 10/1 to become next Labour leader the price has tightened overnight to 6/1. One bookmaker is still quoting 14/1 though that won’t last long.
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Johnson’s preemptive move on Thursday to announce his intention to stand for the Labour Deputy leadership when John Prescott stands down has caught the others with leadership hopes napping and Straw is clearly trying to catch up.
The Johnson announcement is being seen by many as a way of getting himself into the frame to contest the leadership itself with the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, when that becomes vacant in the next year or two.
To add to the complications there’s a YouGov poll of Labour party members this morning in the Sunday Times showing that 56% think that Prescott should stay on until Blair steps down with 25% wanting the Deputy out now.
Straw’s problem, surely, is that all this has come too late for him. He celebrates his 60th birthday on August 3rd which makes him really too old to be considered a serious possibility for either the deputy or the main job.
In a leader under the heading “Labour should embrace Alan Johnson’s challenge” the Observer notes, “..Alan Johnson is right to have voiced his ambitions now. The Prime Minister has stated his intention to step down and the Chancellor’s preferred next move is hardly a secret, so other ministers are obviously thinking about their futures in a reconfigured government. The Education Secretary at least has distinguished himself by his honesty. That is no surprise. Mr Johnson is known in Westminster as a straight talker as well as a good minister and a likable man. He is also an electoral asset to the Labour party, appealing to southern England and the capital, whence he hails. Those are constituencies Gordon Brown struggles to reach. The Labour party has nothing to fear from a deputy leadership contest, but it has much to lose if it tries to suppress the inevitable competition to succeed John Prescott and, when the time comes, Tony Blair.”
On May 10th, less than four weeks ago I stuck my neck out here and suggested that Johnson was a good bet at the then 18/1 to succeed Blair. I think events are moving with me.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, I think that you may be discounting your own power as an opinion former. PB.Com is getting well known in political anorak circles. It is already respected for the accuracy of its election forecasts - maybe now the opinions of the more regular contributors such as yourself are being taken seriously by the politicians. Maybe you’ve effectively put ideas in people’s heads. “If PB.C are suggesting it, then it must be a possibility”
Anyhow, Mike, great spot about Johnson - well ahead of the other pundits. I hope that it benefits you financially.
If Alan Johnson really is on the up, and does manage to pip GB to the top job, what implications does this have for the Labour Party, and for the Government? What damage might the Dour One be capable of, if he feels cheated of his inheritance, and wants some revenge?
2 We’ll have an election and the best man will win. Brown is still favourite by some distance. The attraction of Johnson is partly the way he would underline Cameron’s elite background.
2. Picking someone based on their background rather than abilities is so New Labour
I’m not sure that 60 is too old to be elected to either job as Labour leader or deputy - especially when the party is in power. The last five people to become prime minister mid-term were Eden (58), Macmillan (63), Douglas-Home (60), Callaghan (64) and Major (47). Four of the five were of about that age, as is Ming Campbell (sorry to bring him into this, Mike) and Michael Howard. Whether these were the right people to be chosen is a different question - the point is that they were. As it happens, I can’t see Straw getting anywhere near winning the deputy leadership - but that’s because of what he has on offer, not his age.
3 It is so Conservative, don’t you mean? Cameron’s ascent owed much to posh conservatives who thought the party had been led by grammar school oiks for too long.
3, one might add that most of the (well-informed) opinions in the USA that I have asked suggest that the most likely next President is John McCain, who would be 72 years old at the time of the 2008 election.
Too old at 60 again? What’s the world coming to?
If Johnson is the candidate who represents a challenge to Brown, though, does that mean Straw is in some sort of way a Brownite candidate?
Agree
6. Some newspapers described him as a candidate who can unite the various wings of the party.
This Govt is eating itself alive.
Things have now gotten so bad, that previous loyal ministers are now ‘freelancing’ and advancing their own personal ambitions in defiance of a Prime Minster that they obviously regard as a lame duck.
This cannot go on for much longer, I’ve always thought that Blair would see his 10th anniversary through next year and nnounce a date for going, but honestly if this keeps up I don’t think he will be able to last that long.
On the Straw age issue, I think being 60 and obviously not a challenger to Brown’s leadership ambitions is probably Straw’s biggest selling point. I can’t though see the man who was Blair’s princpal bag carrier over Iraq winning much support in the constituencies.
Hain has just been on Andrew Marr syaing there is ‘no vacancy’ for Deputy Leader and he’s a big fan of John prescott but that he wants and ‘orderly transition’ to Gordon Brown. The race for Deputy Leader is obviously on - however I think it may become fairly academic soon if Blair is forced to speed up his departure to avoid the disentegration of the Govt.
Typically nauseating performance from Peter Hain on Sunday AM.
Given that much conversation on here is about politics but not betting, am I allowed to briefly allude to betting but not politics? Yes, sorry people, but it’s this World Cup lark:
Mexico - 59/1 on Betfair. This will surely tighten assuming they get through their lightweight group.
France - 14/1 on Betfair. Domenech’s an awful manager but the strength of their squad will get them through and again the price will tighten.
Spain - 17/1 on Betfair. Being Spain, they’ll crash in the knock-out stages but again I expect the price to tighten as they get through their easy group.
Top Scorer - Kaka at 149/1. Madness. Lampard at 79/1. Equally so.
No-one seems to be considering Gladstone’s point - whither Brown if he doesn’t win the leadership? Ted Heath’s great sulk came after he had lost an election, Brown has been the real Deputy Leader (some might say in certain areas the co-PM) how would he react?
5 If McCain gets the Republican nomination, then it is hard to see him losing. All of my Democrat friends said that they would vote for McCain ahead of Hilary… I think McCain would have a hard time in the primaries though…
On the issue of 60 being too old… For a deputy leader I don’t think it is. The deputy leader probably won’t normally be in the press very much. Admittedly, Prescott has managed to throw himself into the spotlight rather a lot, but I don’t think it is his age which is the problem…
Lord Rennard is already in full action for Bromley:
http://ben4bromley.co.uk/news/247.html
Btw, I see he’s already attacking Neill because he doesn’t live in Bromley.
But Ben Abbotts’ adress is: 83 St.James’s Avenue
Beckenham, Kent, BR3 4HE
Is it in Beckenham constituency, right?
If so, he isn’t local either.
13 - If it turns out that he isn’t local it doesn’t seem to make much sense to go with this line of attack.
O/T - George Foulkes, according to the Sunday Times, is to stand for the Holyrood election proclaiming that he will be helping Labour to hold on to Edinburgh North & Central. Seems to suggest they have pretty much given up on winning back Pentlands or South.
13. Yep, different constituency. Amusingly Ben Abbott lives 300 yards away from one of my childhood homes.
14, Max, don’t avoid the main piece about Scottish politics in The Times: you’re offering to keep Labour in power!
14. Think Rennard might be right.
The Bromley Council web site says the Lib Dem candidate represents Clock House ward. Clock House is geographically in Beckenham. However the web site covering the boundary reviews says
” Following their review of parliamentary representation in South London, the Boundary Commission for England had made revisions to the existing Beckenham constituency.
The addition of Hayes and Bromley Common wards from the Bromley and Chislehurst seat is predicted to make Beckenham one of the safest Conservative seats in the country.
The electoral wards used in the creation of the modified seat are;
Bromley Common and Keston, Copers Cope, Hayes and Coney Hall, Kelsey and Eden Park, Shortlands and West Wickham.
Clock House is not mentioned, so on this evidence Clock House seems to be in Bromley constituency. Next question where does the Lib Dem candidate actually ,he may represent Clock House, but where in the Borough of Bromly is his home.
However, there appears little doubt he appears more Bromley than the Conservative, if that person does live in East London.
Any more information anyone?
Ramp ramp ramp.
Got any penny shares you think are doing well :-)?
16 - Well they are the next most right-wing party!
I can’t see Labour being too keen on the idea. The whole rational behind it is to be able to say to the public that we can implement policies that we put forward. My own view is that Labour are probably more favourable to a minority goverment than they were but a non-aggression pact with the Tories would probably be too high a price to pay.
13. The usual lies, it seems.
17. David(s). The tory candidate lives in Tower Hamlets, but he’s already representing Bromley at the London Assembly.
Clock House ward was in the Backenham constituency and it will be moved in the new Lewisham West and Penge constituency after the boundary review.
Fred at 17, see my posting. I have asked for more information, have you any, otherwise you might be libelling someone. Let us hold fire till we have the total picture.
Matthew at 18, I hope that is not in response to what I wrote, which I thought was very fair and balanced.
17. Following biog appears on the lib dem’s web site:
Bromley councillor Ben Abbotts is the Liberal Democrat candidate for the Parliamentary by-election in Bromley and Chislehurst.
Ben Abbotts and his family live in the borough of Bromley and he is the Lib Dem Environment spokesman on Bromley Borough Council. He once worked for the late Vincent Hanna. His wife Zara is a secondary school teacher and they have two daughters aged five and one.
He fought the neighbouring Sevenoaks constituency at the last General Election where the Lib Dems moved from third to second place.
I thought Peter Hain was pretty good on Marr. He made the point well that when voters actually make the decision at the next election they will ask themselves if the NHS and education is much better funded and is in much better shape than the one inherited in ‘97. They might also ask themselves whether the ecconomy has been better handled over the last 12 years than the previous 12 years? The way the electorate answer these rhetorical questions is likely to determine the next election rather than the peccadillos of the-by then-long gone ex deputy PM.
22. David(s). He lived in Bromley Borough. But it’s not the same than living in the Bromley and Chislehurst constituency.
what kind of info are you searching?
21, Many thanks, does that then put Clock House as a neighbouring ward to Bromley constituency or further away. What is Shortlands in?. Cathing up nicely on my political geography of the area after a long absence.
Suppose on balance one conclusion, for what it is worth, is that the Lib Dem appears more local than the Conservative.
What we need now is for the other candidates to come from the heart of the constituency!!!.
Having said that, a friend of mine is a councillor, lives 8 miles from the ward,and won against candidates from the ward. Funny old world.
Does it all matter, the Cons will win easily.
Andrea, London street maps, Boundary Commission reports, Bromley Borough Council web site
“The way the electorate answer these rhetorical questions is likely to determine the next election rather than the peccadillos of the-by then-long gone ex deputy PM. ”
I agree. But they might not answer these questions in the way that you’re hoping they’ll answer them.
26. I seem to remember that Shortlands falls under Beckenham rather than Bromley & C. Piers Merchant lived very close to Shortlands.
26. “What we need now is for the other candidates to come from the heart of the constituency!!!.”
I think Farage lives in Bromley.
Shortlands is in Beckenham constituency and it’ll stay there.
Anyway, here’s a ward map of the old Beckenham. Clock House is west of the constituency:
http://www.dfes.gov.uk/inyourarea/pcons/pcon_023.shtml
Two things have made me laugh this morning - the sight of Peter Hain struggling against Marr (when even Maude batted him off) and the notion that Chad Noble believe that Bromley is a two-horse race between himself and Bob! Fantastic, Chad, keep ‘em coming!
24. Welcome back Roger, I think the tories will be quite happy if Labour talk up the economy over the last 12 years. Just hope they point out that the tories were in charge for the 1st 3years and Gordon Brown stuck to their spending plans for the next 2years. Don’t think the tories will have any problem claiming the success for the first 5 years rather than “managing” the last 7years
Does the issue of being local matter here as all of the candidates seem to have a good link to the seat? Ben and Bob don’t live there but in their respective GLA / Council roles could probably describe every road in the Borough.
Guardian’s website allocates Abbott’s home post code to the Beckenham constituency
Perhaps Chad will put out some bar charts, with Labour and the Lib Dems relegated to “Can’t Win Here.”
26. Clockhouse does not border the Bromley constituency at least on current boundaries. Shortlands is in Beckenham constit. now too. It does border Bromley though.
The significance of this may be that using ‘I’m more local than you’ arguments seems a pretty thin line of attack.
27. David(s). You can see the wards map from the link at 30. If you click on “Bromley”, you can see other constituencies in the Borough.
The bounday commission reports are here:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pbc/review_areas/South_London_Boroughs/bromley_lewisham.asp
31. Anthony Little, yes, just that it’s a bit irritating to see Lord Rennard playing those games when his candidate didn’t exactly lives in the constituency either.
34. Frank, thanks.
Seems resolved then, Clock House is in Beckenham Constituency, many thanks for the local knowledge, takes me back years. Ah memories, happy days. Not saying anymore!!.
13. Andrea, now I know that the B&C byelection campaign has started. I look forward to my daily update on the progress of the various candidates from the ever impartial world of the libdem bloggers
Well with both the Liberal Democrats and now that political renegade Chad Noble playing the “two horse race” card, the electorate will be really confused!
Andrea 16 - you forgot the link http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2090-2210545,00.html
This is not just a light hearted attempt to wind up Max, but such a scenario plays merry hell with alot of assumptions about the narrative of a DC v Brown UK General election post 2007.
Annabel Goldie as a wild card - who would of thought of that!
david(s) I was referring to the now daily ramping of Smithson’s financial interest in a Johnson victory.
40. But LDs have the picture of 2 horses too:
http://ben4bromley.co.uk/news/246.html
Btw, Abbotts improved his pictures in the new website compared to the one for 2005 GE. No more bags under his eyes!
32. Thank you Chris. I think you over estimate the detailed knowledge or interest of the electorate. I’m also not sure that I fully understand DC’s tactics which seems to be exclusively personality driven. A strange way to change a party’s image in the long term though I can see advantages in the short term.
32,
I think Roger was making the point by the time of the next election, at least 12 years record of the economy, compared with the previous conservative administration.
24 Welcome back Roger, it needs more balance,than the predetermination of a Conservative victory at the next election, this far out, which has been, the dominant view on here.
39. Chris D, I feel responsible for having started the frivolous debate about where Ben Abbotts lives…..
44. Roger, I think that political history is littered with “personalities” who have dominated their parties image.
How well known is Johnstone outside of the Labour Party?
I have only ever heard of him, heard any reference to him, or seen any pictures of him on this site.
46. Andrea, I nominate you to be the impartial PB.com referee for decisions on the factually correct content of political “ramping” leaflets in this by election
43 The Lib Dem spinning machine appears to have started. It reminds me of their last election effort.
http://www.moraylibdems.org.uk/news/5/index.phtml
49. Chris D, nah, during by-elections I usually get an anti-LD mood. It doesn’t happen to me during other elections, juts with byelections. Not sure why, probably because of their ramping!
48 - One for Jack: seems like McConnell isn’t the only one needing the help of the Tories. An article in the Times suggests that starting the Jacobite rebellion was ‘criminally, irresponsible’ without the support of the King of France …and the English Tories.
51 Andrea if you are not be referee I wonder if there any local newspapers similar to the Northern Scot?
50. I wonder how another such startlingly accurate ‘poll’ could be produced? How about conducting one on the handful of streets where the Lib Dems have strong support, or even better just among known Lib Dem voters…
Andrea, I think you and I have similair views on a quite a nuumber of issues, but believe me, from my by-election experience over the past few years, they are all at it, at different times each is worse than the other. Moray was a classic where two were apparently guilty, Cheadle, Hodge Hill were other examples, there are many others. All totally unnecessary and avoidable.
What we may have is a gradual Americanisation of our politics, plus the apparent need for society as a whole to focus on negatives, not positives.
For me, it’s not where people necessarily live, but more how long have they been there, where are their roots, what they have done and will do for the people they represent. Or am I naieve?
Straw is totally unsuitable.
He is one of those regarded by many to have blood on his hands.
To have Straw, the man that was foreign secretary when we went to war against Iraq, as deputy leader would be stupid to say the least and at worst inflammatory to those that are angry and bordering on militant about what has happened.
But going by the cock-up theory, that is this government, that means he probably will become deputy.
The SNP man’s comments at the end of that article are hilarious. The quest to create an imagined past goes on.
9 - Bullseye, I totally agree. This situation is exemplified by the way that, at PMQs, Blair has been easily bested by Cameron every week since the scandals broke. His hold on his party has essentially gone. Every scandal becomes a make-or-break issue because his standing is so weak. The beginning of the summer recess might be a natural break point for his leadership.
55. David(s). I more or less agree.
By-election campaigns tend to go totally OTT in the last week. At that time strange comments start to emerge.
57. Fred, which article?
59. The one in the Times cited in post 52.
57 - You can rely on Gibson to usually come up with some rubbish of that nature that wallows in victimhood - being one of his constituents I tend to veer between finding it amusing and despairing at what often seems the proto-fascist (phrase copyright of the Economist article a few weeks back)implications of his utterances.
Incidentally (and to cover the site legally if required), the phrase ‘proto-fascist’ isn’t used as a weak personal insult to Mr Gibson or to seriously suggest that he (or the party he belongs to) has a facist agenda. As a white settler in the Highlands, I just find the strength of his particular rhetoric veers towards the outright hostile on many occasions and probably unrepresentative of the bulk of nationalist opinion.
55 - I don’t think it’s any sort of modern trend. Dirtiness is traditional in byes.
50 - I think most Lib Dems would be very happy with another by-election in which they increased their vote by 7%.
52. Some of the “brutality” was definitely down to some old scores being settled by Scottish Lowlanders.
63. yes, if you hadn’t spent the last 2 days before the election saying you would have won it. Not even the tories were claiming to be on the verge of winning it, but Linda Gorn was quoted the day of the election saying she was on the verge to make an upset.
61 - He also (IIRC) urged the parliament to condemn Michael Fry for his revisionist history of the Highland Clearances. As you say it didn’t chime with the culture of victimhood Mr Gibson likes to promote.
Another of Fry’s work’s - The Scottish Empire - was previously praised by Alex Salmond on the grounds that it was ‘pro-Scottish’.
How much of the zeal of the lowlanders on the Hanoverian side was due to anti-Catholic religious sentiment?
65 - well, I’m sure some people were upset by the result
68. The NHS First candidate was so happy someone voted for him!
re 42. What am I supposed to do - ignore the Labour leadership story which has erupted following Johnson’s annoucement.
Yes I have views on political outcomes which I back up with cash. People who read the site can make their own judgements.
Mike Smithson
66. It would be sad indeed if a people with such a proud history were to degenerate into a Serbian-style culture of victimhood. Unfortunately the signs are there that this indeed happening - and the SNP are not wholly at fault for this. The finger might legitimately be pointed at Labour as well.
70 Mike, Matthew is probably just annoyed because he didn’t take your advice in the first place. Besides, there are plenty of people on this site who would have rubbished the idea of Johnson as a candidate if he was no good…
BTW you couldn’t possibly start a “Hilary Armstrong for leader” thread, could you?
Meanwhile, O/T more good news for Britain’s favourite ‘copper’s copper’….
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1789936,00.html
It’s a curious YouGov poll, isn’t it? First it’s unusual to poll only party members, though I know they’ve done this before. Second the S Times only mentions it in passing even though they commissioned it (presumably because the “Prescott should stay” result doesn’t suit the rest of the article). But also it’s hard to believe that this is really the only question they asked - nothing about who members would like if there was an election, or any views on leadership or changeover timing or any of the other obvious topics.
IIRC, YouGov are required by Polling Council rules to publish the full results on their website - it’ll be interesting to see what else is there.
Meanwhile, the media commentary on the Bromley selection seems to be all on the lines of ‘defeat for Cameron’s A-list’, with Maude doing his best to hold the line on Radio 4 this morning (I especially liked the ‘all the A-list candidates are local…somewhere’ comment - lol, that’s true, Francis). This sort of thing is inevitable with any sort of preferred selection system (as we discovered in Blaenau Gwent…): every selection is interpreted either as “locals steamrollered” or “leadership defied”.
70 - but I bet you planned Johnson’s announcement Mike
36: Why are you named the Danish for squid, Blaeksprutte? Just curious!
re 75. I’m continuing to bet on Johnson and, indeed, got £100 at 14/1 with Ladbrokes this morning. It’s now down to 8/1. The best strategy to protect my betting interests would not be to put these things on the site.
Mike Smithson
problem is, the bets are only good until the end of the year, how likely is it to see any change of leader before christmas?
re 78. I think the bet lasts until a new Labour leader is selected. Thus the terms of the Betfair market are Who will be the next full time leader of the Labour Party? The market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Labour leader as selected in the next Labour leadership contest.
Mike Smithson
79 - yes, when you see 31/12/06 on the Ladbrokes site, this is a nominal date at which the odds expire. (I say “nominal” because there is no chance they will go for 6 months without changing anyway.) It’s nothing to do with the criteria for determining the result.
cool.
Thats my hundred quid bet at 14/1 good then.
Best chance of making a few quid in years.
Seeing how things are, it is either going to be Brown, and then it is Christmas as far as us Conservatives are concerned, or its Johnson, and at least i will be £1400 up……
With Johnson more and more looking like a serious threat, Im wonder when we are going to see the first ‘Tories for Gordon’ campaign. As amusing as it may be to see Brown lose, I can’t imagine anyone who is not a supporter of this Govenrment seriously wants him to lose. Will the opposition have to lay off Gordon for a while to save his leadership bid? One thing is for sure, we live in interesting and very strange times.
A brief blowing of Tory Boy’s trumpet will now follow:
Accepting I did my boots over the Tory Leadership (wish fulfilment over reality - a deadly mix for any gambler)
Still long of Johnson & Brown
Still (irresponsibily)short of Blair and Brown
Come on Prezza, bail out - let’s see the dam break !
Long of Johnson & BENN !!!
I’m supporting Gordon and Ming too!
Gordon as PM with Ming as Deputy PM in a hung parliament. It’s a Conservative vote winning dream!
Johnstone has an advantage in being an unknown. I had never heard of him until this week. He could be presented as being new and not too tarnished with the current lot like Brown is. It has worked very well for Cameron.
85 Gordon as PM with Ming as Deputy PM in a hung parliament. It’s a Conservative vote winning dream!
You mean in 2014 - hardly a “dream”!
I meant the prospect of it! They will come flocking to us if this is touted.
85 - Er, DC, you still haven’t really got to know him yet as others do…his name is Johnson, not this other bloke whom I don’t know either
88- Oh.. my mistake.
Being an unknown throughout all these awful years of a Labour Government is such a big plus for him. English too, it just gets better. Miliband is too much like Blair. Where does JohnSON fit in with the Blair/Brown camps?
Will there be a rally round a ’stop Brown candidate’?
I think yes.
“Miliband is too much like Blair”
Cameron too!
But people like Cameron!
http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/the_tory_choice_in_bromley
Follow the link for some gentle research on Bob Neill. (Most damning words come from his own side.)
92 - So if our candidate is so hopeless presumably it’ll be a disaster for Ming if you don’t win the seat?
Do you think he is hopeless, Max?
My, what a feeding frenzy!
Apparently, lawyers for Tony Blair and John Prescot have denied that either of them shot each other this week.
92 - Yes Peter, of course I do. Almost Ming-esque in fact.
Anyway we’ll find out soon enough if the B&C Tories have or have not shot themselves in their collective foot!
94 - Peter, I think your calling Ming hopeless is pretty tough language, but goodness, you LibDems..
As for Bob Neill, a fact clearly not apparent to the Orange ones here is that the elctors of Bromley have had sufficient confidence in his abilities to return him by substantial majorities to the GLA on two occasions.
92. Peter, see 39%49
Difficult to imagine anyone reaching Ming-esque proportions of hopelessness, isn’t it Max?
On a serious note what do we consider a good result for the respective parties?
100 - That depends on how much the Liberals want to ramp their own non-existant chances I should think….
Max, the question you ask has as many answers as there are political parties. The spinners from all sides will be out there in the Westminster bars this week heavily discounting any result worse than a 25 per cent drop in their own vote share as ‘OK in the circumstances of the moment’.
Personally I do not see how the Tory selection in Bromley is in any way contrary to Cameron’s ‘advance minorities’ policy. Grey Tory Freemason living in East London? Must be so few of these left around these days as to be not just a minority but a protected species!
Have been quietly championing Alan Johnson for a while now - if I were a betting man I would be doing nicely, and am also perhaps developing some good judgement from time to time. Just need to wait till Chris Grayling makes it near the top of the Tories before sounding too smug.
Agree that Straw has many more problems than his age, in terms of being promoted in the near future.
‘But people like Cameron’
The problem for the Conservative Party strategy of becoming a one man band is that when he falls out of favour (which inevitably he will) so do they.
However popular or otherwise Ming might be the Lib/Dems popularity doesn’t depend solely or even largely on him. Michael Howard was unpopular but the party never sank or swam on this alone. Whoever devised this strategy would be well advided to have a ‘plan B’.
104 - It is a danger but given the increasingly presidential style of politics we have the leader is a more important figure than ever before and I suspect that for the forseeable future both Labour and Conservatives will see their fortunes rise and fall in line with the popularity of the leader. I’m not sure if there’s really any way of getting away from that.
104, You could be really successful wallflower’s like Mrs Thatcher and Tony Blair. I don’t suppose it was any consolation winning 3 consecutive GE before they both started to fall from favour.
The really dangerous thing for Britain is that increasingly-provably-accurate lampoons of the senior political leaders are likely to make the public as a whole even more disillusioned with the mainstream party politics. In this respect their perception of Cameron as a personable bloke with a penchant for telling everyone exactly what they want to hear even if it’s totally opposite to what he pushed for the Tories last election could be as harmful as either the image of Prescott as a political traitor who seems happiest when he is out-doing the toffs in ripping the public off and sexually oppressing women, or the bizarre pastimes of certain ‘overstressed’ Lib Dem leadership contenders.
The result of this continuing trend could well be highly volatile swings behind ‘pure, easy-answer-to-everything’ minority parties as well as increasing refusal to participate in the politcal process, either through providing half-decent candidates to political parties, or people to deliver their leaflets and canvass for them, or even just as voters, especially in elections for the increasingly-emasculated local councils, being freshly-filleted by pretend ‘localism’ which is, in reality, exactly the opposite.
“Grey Tory Freemason living in East London? ”
More than you imagine I think.
Seems that Max and Guido are doing the (negative) ramping. I passed no comment on Neill’s electability.
I’m closer to Sean Fear that zebidee on this debate.
The implications for Cameron’s A-list seems to interest most commentators (most).
Zebidee obviously spins too much on the magic roundabout. The endangered species where Bob Neill currently has a home are Liberal Democrats, who fell from being th eofficial opposition on the council to fourth place in May.
Speaking as Bob’s local Conservative councillor and as a friend of many years, he will be a superb candidate and MP.
It is amazing how you freemasons do stick together.
111 - How else do you expect us to run the world?
I can’t find any deputy leadership markets - but I got 6 to 1 on Johnson earlier this year on paddypower.com, who now don’t seem to offer the bet on the internet. Bet he’s tightened since then…
Just looking at the pictures above one thing is clear - Alan Johnson had a better dentist!
Mike Smithson
114. Gordon Brown was ahead of the game as usual. He’s not about to be outgunned in the dental department by an upstart like Johnson!
If Labour Party members want to keep arch anglophobe Prescott as Deputy PM, then good on them. They are really are already preparing for themselves for permanent opposition. Please Labour memebers, keep on living in the “Disneyland” where you belong.
Steve Richards is a very reliable commentator on Labour Party affairs and I suspect his column in today’s Independent is based on a chat with Alan Johnson.
“I suspect Mr Johnson seeks a modest greatness, but is having a more overwhelming greatness thrust upon him. For some time, he has coveted the post of deputy leader. Mr Johnson had noted that Harriet Harman had placed her hat discreetly in the public arena. He felt he should follow suit, and therefore declared an interest. In some quarters this was taken as a Machiavellian bid for the top job. I read his intervention as a Machiavellian bid for the deputy’s job.”