Mori gives the Tories a ten point lead
June 5th, 2006-
Boost for Cameron as he reflects on his first six months in the job
A Mori poll in the Sun this morning has some remarkably good news for David Cameron as he ends his first half year as leader. The projected vote shares are with the changes on last month are: CON 41%(+5), LAB 31%(-1), LD 18%(-3).
Such vote shares at a General Election would, according to the Baxter calculator, produce a Commons of CON 344 seats: LAB 251: LD 20 - a Tory majority of 42.
Before we get too excited I will repeat what I always write about Mori polls - whatever the figures are showing. Unlike the other pollsters Mori does not make past vote recall or allegiance calculations to ensure that it has a representative samples. The headline figures are based on those saying they are certain to vote. This is the reason, I believe, why the pollster produces the most variable figures each month. Since November last year the Tories have been in a range of being ten points behind and ten points ahead.
Having said that the trend in the poll is in line with the other pollsters and it does appear that there is real resilience in the Tory position. A month ago, on the Monday after the local elections, I suggested that we might have reached a tipping point. The Mori figures certainly reinforce that.
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The big danger for Labour comes when the Tories start being seen as the next Government and people and big interests adjust their positions accordingly. Today’s poll is in the Sun and it’s an interesting question whether Rupert Murdoch will continue backing NuLab - a party that is starting to look like a loser.
The poll comes at an opportune moment for Cameron as those in his party opposed to the way he is taking it are making themselves heard more widely.
For the Lib Dem the 18% share will be a disappointment but they will console themselves with the fact that Mori traditionally gives them low figures.
The big interest is whether the current poll findings will have an impact on the Labour succession - the focus over the weekend.
UPDATE 0800 An aspect of the sample to highlight is that 41% listed “Race Relations and Immigration” as one of their “most important issues facing Britain today. By a big margin this is the highest figure in a Mori poll since the General Election. A brief look back over Mori’s figures seems to indicate a correlation between a high score on this question and the Tory performance.
Thus in November 2005, when Mori was reporting a 10% Labour lead, the proportion was only 25%.
Mike Smithson
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a good poll for the tories. Agree with mikes concerns about mori in general, and will need to see if the tories being above 40% is a permanent feature of future polls.
On the subject of who murdoch will back, i would be suprised if he actually does. My guess is that the official line will not be to back either saying both have positive and negative points, while giving a biased coverage to whoever he favours.
One question i have though, is will cameron use his sucess in the polls to challenge the right of his party further or will he seek refuge felling that he has altered the tories perception enough.
Absolutely wonderful news. It is a hugely exciting time to be a Conservative.
David Cameron is working wonders.
(Even though I do distrust Mori. As Mike points out, it is the continuing trend that is important here. Sean Fear’s recent by election analysis gave 43% IIRC).
Are there any internals available on the poll? I want to see the breakdown in support male-female and examine whether the move to the Tories among women continues.
Mori polls are not reliable, but I am looking for a continuation of the trends of others.
It’s interesting that this co-incides with the selection in Bromley which was a main story in the BBC’s bulletins yesterday -rather a non-story really imo. After all,two of the finalists were A-listers.
#4 they were, and they were put through ahead of other qualified locals like Mrs. Forth and the Association chairman. Not much of a rejection of the list
I believe Syed Kamall is heavily Eurosceptic and Julia Manning a social conservative. Not all that surprising to see they would do well in B&C.
5,6 I was just rather surprised that the story was given so much prominence. In the days when by-elections were more frequent, you really had to hunt around in the newspapers to find candidates’ names (pre-web I suppose).
Labour are looking dysfunctional and Tony Blair looks like he’s lost his grip. Perhaps more damagingly John Prescott looks like one of those utility bosses during Majors time with his snout in the trough. On top of this Cameron is giving a good impersonation of a harmless Lib Dem and the net result is a poll such as this.
However if anyone thinks that this is likely to put the Tories in next time-think again! This is Mori’s famous “Certain to Vote” poll. Even a Labour voter like myself would be loath to admit to a pollster that I would be” Certain to Vote” for this dysfunctional self-serving shower. A better indicator during a turbulent time like this might be their “Inclined to Vote” poll.
Labour needs a new tough leader to get the party back on track. And it needs an end to Prescott. And at that time I have no doubt that the polls will become more realistic.
If even Roger is saying Labour looks dysfuynctional then I think critical Tory mass has been reached!
Yep, excellent Tory poll. I think it’ll probably prove the high-water mark for the moment for the reasons Mike and others have said, but I agree that recent polls show the Tories have now a sustained lead of at least several percent.
Something to think about for both the other parties. Welcome back, Roger, by the way!
“I think critical Tory mass has been reached! ”
Is this some oblique reference to Blair taking Communion?
Btw ‘critical mass’ is normally reached just before total meltdown or explosion!
Fantastic Tory poll. Cameron is doing well, but can’t help thinking though if Howard was in still charge he would not be doing much worse.
Poll lead due 90% to Labour collapse and 10% Cameron presentation. Discuss.
12. Probably true, but don’t forget that when actually get some policies support should rise, it always does for opposition parties.
The government was probably going to hit rough water whoever was Tory (or LD) leader. Michael Howard could have probably hit Blair harder than Cameron has in Parliamentary terms, and been a bit more sure-footed there. Having said all that, Cameron’s leadership has created the sense that the Conservatives are a viable alternative, and all honour to him. He now has an excellent chance of building an opinion poll cushion that will allow him to develop a strong, positive policy platform for the next election.
The LDs should also worry; they’re looking flaccid and directionless.
“other qualified locals like Mrs. Forth ”
I don’t think she was all that qualified.
7.”I was just rather surprised that the story was given so much prominence”
yes, BBC news 24 followed it during the selection night and I don’t recall doing it for Labour selection in Livingston or Dunfermline and West Fife-
Is this the real roger, shurely shome mishtake! Great news for those of us of a tory persuasion but it’s only MORI
Who am I to sniff at such a positive poll? But we Tories would be wise to keep the champagne in the case, never mind on ice. Mori’s run of Tory vote shares has been - 41, 36, 30, 34, 35, 40, 39, 40 since December and that 30 was only just over a month ago!
I wonder what MORI’s corporate clients think about such volatility in its ‘flagship’ political polls. Puts more margin-for-error into the mix, for sure.
1. Didn’t Murdoch wait until pretty close to the 1997 GE before openly supporting Blair?
It might be interesting to look back at the way we all reacted to that poll showing the Tories down on 30%. I suspect even I saw some merit in MORI then.
19 Peter has a point. I discount Mori almost entirely. The value for me here does not come in Mori’s figures but in the secondary support they offer to Sean Fear’s 43% showing in 25 by elections and to prior polls.
I will be waiting the next “real” poll with baited breath, though. An unweighted poll is a worthless poll.
That said, as the earlier post makes clear, Mori’s lack of weighting has in the past worked against the Tories, hasn’t it? Which raises the pleasant possibility that 41% is an underestimation.
I think this poll now proves that ‘New Labour’ is seen as no different to ‘Old Labour’. They lied to the electorate in 1997 saying that they had changed when all they did was change their name. Dropping Clause 4 was only spin simply to get the floating voter on board. Under the ‘New Labour’government, the same unpopular global capatalist policies have continued as they did under the previous Thatcher and Major administations with factories closing and the import and export of cheap workers. No one believes Labour anymore and probably wont ever again. Labour are now finished in England. They started the devolution mess which is now beginning to backfire right in their own faces, Scotland will soon be be choosing full independence with its new Parliament paid for mainly by the English taxpayer. Once this happens Labour will have lost a huge block vote and are hoping that they can use the ethnic minority vote as the replacement block vote, however many Black or Asian minorities won’t be fooled either as they now see themselves as English rather than British and want to fit in with the rest of England. They just laugh at how anti-English Labour have become and think Labour is out of touch just like the rest us. Thank you Tony, you’ve let the cat out of the bag and have permanently damaged Labour’s chances of winning overall in England again. Tony Blair really has been the Tory man in disguise, by alienating and betraying the white working class core voter that got you into power in the first place; you’ve messed up big time, not to mention the illegal Irag War. Blair ensured Scotland gets 25% more funding per head than England thanks to the grossly outdated Lord Barnett Formulae (just to buy the Scottish nationalist vote), nearly all of the Barnett money is funded from the English taxpayer and most of it is squandered on socialist pet projects and creating a dependancy culture. Labour ensured that Scottish pensioners don’t have to sell their homes when they go into care whereas English pensioners do when they go into care, Scottish Labour MPs enhance their own careers by voting on devolved issues that do not effect their own constituents, but are not accountable to them either. I really really really do hope that the anti-English Labour Party never ever, ever gets elected into power again. Bring on Gordon Brown as Prime Minister and keep John Prescott as deputy PM and just which Labour freefall deeper and deeper into the hole of the bottomless pit where it belongs.
For those who missed it first time round when it was on digital, ‘Tory Tory Tory’ is on BBC2 tonight at 11.20pm.
Interesting question to wonder what would be happening if Howard was in place rather than Cameron. My guess would be the Lib Dems would be a little higher and Labour would be where they are. So the gap might be slightly less.
Tony Benn is still waiting for the arrival of a Labour government:
http://news.independent.co.uk/people/profiles/article625089.ece
21 - Doubtless continued on page 94….
Well, like all good Conservatives I am pleased but cautious.
We have lost three elections in a row and up till the back end of last year had been pretty consistantly behind in the polls for 15 years.
We have been threatened by the Lib dems with ‘decapitation’ and told they intend to replace us, and harangued by the smallest Parties such as UKIP.
We should keep calm, there is a long way to go and Labour have shown that they have Houdini skills.
24. Andrea - he got excited at the GE result of 1983, enthusing that 28% of the voters had voted for ’socialism’. He hasn’t been too thrilled since.
24. Andrea, I don’t often agree with Tony Benn politics, but one of the answer’s he gives in the article explains why I admire him as a politician. “I admire anyone who speaks their mind whatever their party and divide politicians of all parties into two categories: the signposts who point the way they think we should go and the weathercocks who haven’t got an opinion, until they’ve studied the polls, focus groups and spin doctors. I have no time for weathercocks and prefer signposts even if I think they point in the wrong direction.”
28. yes, Chris D, I liked that answer too.
Back to Bromley for a moment….so we’ve the 3 main parties with a candidate in place + Farage for UKIP and 2 indies.
Now I think we should wait if the Greens will stand.
28 - hmmm. He was a moderate “moderniser” in the 1960s, then after the fall of the first Wilson government filled the niche of figurehead of those who thought it hadn’t been left-wing enough.
I don’t think he actually is an opportunist - I think he’s a romantic who had a major change of mind. But you could interpret his behaviour all the way from the 50s to the mid-80s as consistent with opportunism or “weathervaneism”.
30. BV, opportunists usually gain something from their actions…not sure what TB gained from his 80’s stences.
I would not like to get in the way of all these conservatives celebrating victory at the next general election. However I thought I should mention that an investigation into Conservative electoral fraud in Coventry will probably mean the lose control. There are more details in the Times.
This isn’t just a bad-for-Labour poll, it’s a real good-for-Conservatives poll too, even after applying the Standard MORI Caveat. Whereas eighteen months ago we might have expected a sharp drop in Labour’s support to mostly inflate the Lib Dem figures, now the beneficiaries are the Conservatives.
I just hope this isn’t isn’t a case of the mid-term blues for a tired and unpopular rabble and warm curiosity towards a nice shiny new bloke, but a real sea change in British politics. The longer the figures stay like this, the harder it’ll become to argue the former.
31 - by the late 1980s, no. But in the 70s and early 80s he was pretty powerful as the effective leader of one faction of the party. And he was very, very nearly deputy leader (in fact if abstentions had been counted differently in the electoral college he would have won that election.)
34. if he was really an opportunist, he could have followed others of his wing of the party from the left to the right when New Lab was born.
35 - yes indeed, that’s why I said “till the mid-80s” in post 30.
To give him credit, he has happily published his early diaries which show his sentiments were different in those days. In 1964 he even thought that if Labour lost (they didn’t) then they should make an electoral pact with the Liberals next time round.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2211021_1,00.html
This the article I mentioned.
One assumes this poll is the final nail in Prescott’s (and therefore Blair’s) coffin.
27. I must admit to having a desire to see Questiontime do a “special” programme with the panel made up of “signposts” pointing in a different direction from their parties. The panel could include Tony Benn and Norman Tebbit, still trying to think of an off message libdem. It might not make the present party leaderships happy but I don’t think it will induce audience apathy.
Discounting the MORI nature of the poll
…. 30% last time for the Tories !! …. this poll is broadly in line with most recent polls. it clearly emphasizes the solid poll lead the Tories have established over Labour.
Although the 18% figure for the Lib Dems is historically OK, you can’t help but think that with all Labours travails the Lib Dems should be polling around the mid twenties. Lib Dems need to up their game or face the possibility of trending south in polls to around 15%.
……………………………………………
Andrea. Was in Hunky Dinky Dunky country yesterday as a guest at the Rutland County Show !! …. lots of bullocks, pigs, jodhpurs and the like. Sadly I didn’t get a chance to convey your best wishes to the Miniature for Rutland. However I consoled myself with a fine lunch …. far too much local ale … hic … and later a splendid dinner at the Finche Arms in Hambleton on the Rutland Water peninsula. Much to be recommended !!
39 Charles Kennedy?
Benn is a broken record - I’ve heard that weathercocks/signposts line a hundred times. In fact, the wisest thing I’ve ever heard him say was that he didn’t want to be considered a nice, safe old man. Good, because he isn’t. He may be a defender of parliamentary rights and enjoy reliving the witty, decadent left/right debates he enjoyed at Westminster School and Oxford but, on policy prescription, he’s not a charming old chap at all.
Leaving aside his Tory Defeatism when it comes to the likes of Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milosevic, does anyone remember his economics? Probably not because he no longer ever talks about what should be done about anything - like Norman Tebbit, he just spouts practised one-liners. Well, let me remind you: exchange controls, import controls, renationalisation of the utilities, planning “agreements” between government and private companies and withdrawal from the EU. How perfectly charming.
39. Throw Jenny Tonge in for the Libdems. You’ll have at least 2 countries in a diplomatic crisis with UK after the show.
The key thing about this Mori poll is in Mike’s update, i.e. the number of people stating that Immigration is the most important issue. Public feeling hasn’t changed from 25 to 41% during that month and so that suggests that the sample is a different sample this month from last. Mori this month have picked up more people worried about immigration and so by chance more people who are likely to vote Conservative.
That single fact makes the headline result very questionable - but it’s the headlines that are important; they add to a general feeling that Cameron is a winner and that the Tories are going to win the election, and that makes it more likely that they will.
In the same way that Alan Johnson is increasingly beginning to look like a dead cert for the Labour Leadership!!!! Any predictions on when he overtakes Brown on the betting markets!?
42. “Benn is a broken record ”
At least he’s more charming than New Lab’s junior ministers broken records.
Jack W - surely the ‘Whipper In’ in Oakham Market Place is a better lunch spot for political anoraks!
Benn went through three stages; in the 1950s, he was a slightly quirky centrist MP, still close to similar middle-class Oxonians like Jenkins and Crosland, although not really close to Gaitskell. His struggle over his peerage radicalised him and permanently moved him away from the Labour right. He then became orthodox soft-left, along with Castle and Shore, along with Wilson - but then, with the impact of the new left, he then moved markedly to the left after 1970, and has frozen there - just at the same time, interestingly enough, when Michael Foot moved from the irreconcilable left to a softer, accomodating position.
Had he remained soft rather than hard left, he would been a difficult candidate to beat in 1976, and would almost certainly have won in 1980.
I don’t think it makes any difference whether ‘marxist’ Johnson or ‘Gormless’ Brown becomes Labour Prime Minister, they’re finished in England because of the dreadful explosive mix of Socialism and Anglophobia.
32 - was it by chance you overlooked that part of the article which stated there was no question of any wrongdoing on the part of the Conservative candidate?
40,. Jack, I’m quite disappointed that you prefered to see pigs than searching for my favourite tory MP!
Is it just me or has the dump Tony business really settled down for the moment? Could the dump Nouveau Riche John actually be a very welcome distraction for Tony?
I understand that Tony & Gordon have come out for Prescott but I don’t really get the feeling of a huge fightback. Tell me if I’m wrong. I am aware that its nto in either’s interests for blood letting over Prescott’s vacant post or..is it?
Anyone?
It’s true that Benn (and Tebbit) have become end of the pier shows, playing all the old hits, but can we really begrudge them that?
Armand Hammer once said that when he looked into the eyes of Trotsky they were the eyes of a fanatic - he only saw eyes like that once again, and they were Tony Benn’s.
On Benn….it would be interesting what he would say/behave if his son becomes leader.
And I meant to say… that when I met Tony Benn I asked hime if he’d heard the quotation - he said that he hadn’t but he was delighted by it!
I don’t want to rain on Russel or Andy D’s parade but in ‘80 and ‘81 Mori were regularly giving Labour in excess of 10% leads. Indeed they even reached 16% on one occasion. And who can forget the disaster that followed in ‘83!
51 - Surely, the Prescott business is a proxy for attacking Blair, as his loss would leave Blair exposed?
I don’t know whether any issue over the next seven or so weeks until the recess could possibly bring matters to a head. It’s true that the WC could provide a distraction, and might buy a little time for Blair if England do well.
Francis @ 48. As a non Englishman looking from the outside in, I think you may well be right, there’s seems to be a real base instinctive hostility emerging.
Possibly The World Cup will harden that hostility (unless England win it)because no doubt there will be the clash of the flag wavers versus the politically correct mob.
46 kingbongo. Well, if you’re a political anorak of the Madam Cyn variety !!
Hambleton is a splendid hamlet with the excellent Finche Arms overlooking Rutland Water and a few hundred yards further into the village is one of the nations greatest restaurants at Hambleton Hall …. as the Rutland and Alan Duncan motto goes - Multum in Parvo - Much in Little !!
42. I seem to recall he wanted to nationalise all land with a value above 50k or so at one time in the mid-1980s as well. A lot of people of my generation viewed him as communist fellow-traveller at the time.
49 you say there is “no question” of any wrongdoing. The article says “there is no suggestion”. I am not a lawyer, but this is not the same thing is it?
There are more details on this case in the following article
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2211020,00.html
147 - don’t you get the impression from the diaries that Benn’s support for Wilson was motivated more by a personal detestation for George Brown than by a soft-left position?
If the defeated Labour candidate has not made any allegation of wrongdoing against the Conservative, then mine is a reasonable summary of that part of the article.
You were the one who, erroneously, mentioned “Conservative electoral fraud”.
61 - sorry, 47 not 147. Getting ahead of myself.
55. I don’t do parades (the occasional demo, but never parades), and I was hardly gloating over an imminent GE victory. Perception does matter; Cameron’s greatest victory has been in a period of just 6 months to make people think he could win. Yes, Labour have been going through a bad patch, but it isn’t the first - the difference is that at other times (the fuel crisis for example) nobody thought that the Tories were a real option - today they are, and healines showing him 10 points ahead can only help.
50 Andrea. Sorry !! …. but there was a fine bullock whose farm name was Alan …. he also sported a fine pair of bo****** that swayed to the right !!
Francis. I think nurse Ratched is ready for your appointment now………
62. What the article actually shows is just how easy it is to vote on someone else’s behalf in the UK. A name and address is all that you need!
67. are ID cards needed?
68. LOL - certainly not!!!!!
68. Just a return to good old fashioned British fair play!
62 “No one suggests that Sean Fear beats his wife” is not the same as “there is no question of Ford beating his wife”.
My reference to Conservative electoral fraud was influenced by the Times headline which reads as follows
Vote scandal threatens Tories
A vote-rigging scandal is threatening the Tories’ takeover of Coventry
71. One can get too caught up in words. The fraud does threaten the Tory takeover - that doesn’t mean that any Conservatives were involved in it. Certainly the Labour candidate doesn’t think that they were, and that’s the end of that.
71 - No, what you actually wrote @32 was:
“…that an investigation into Conservative electoral fraud in Coventry…”
Dear me, you really do need remedial lessons from Alastair Campbell.
61 - It was a factor, I think, in 1963. But Benn was tuned in to the soft-left approach, and played a role in Wilson’s kitchen Cabinet throughout the first government.
OT. I heard Gordon Brown on radio this morning and he really wasn’t very good.I’m a big fan of his and I’m sure he’ll make a fine leader but I’m also sure his presentational skills are unlikely to improve. He’ll have to try to turn this into a strength and concentrate on being unspun. He turned down Dorneywood before Prescott was given it which is a what people would expect of him and which is why many respect him
Looking at the latewst MORI poll suggests as others do,d a Tory landslide at the next Local elections in 2007.
If you take May ICM and compare with 2003 ICM a month pre locals you get an 8% Lab to Tory and a 4% swing Lib to Tory.
I have looked at Unitary and District councils results for 2003
and applying a uniform swing gives 950 Tory gains around 600 Lab losses and 350 Lib dem losses .Even if it were half this level this would give Cameron massive extra momentum to see off any challenge from within the party.
Also a thought on Bromley and Chiselhurst.
I noticed that UKIP polled 11% in a local by election last week so with strong candidate they could poll 10 -20 %.
Welcome back Roger! We need some more lefties on here so we Tories can enjoy a good gloat over the enemy. It’s no fun on your own.
Another reason to welcome back Roger is that he makes a good point re ‘intention to vote’.
I’ve got a lot of lefty friends who, if you asked them today, would rather detach their own gonads than admit they might vote Labour next time. Ths government is now as reviled as Major’s, and as embarrassing to be linked to; indeed it is arguable that New Labour is more deeply loathed than any recent regime, because of Iraq.
But still, but still - I suspect a few of these mates of mine who are too embarrassed to admit supporting Labour right now, will end up voting for Labour at the next G/E, when it gets tribal again. So I reckon the Tory lead is exaggerated.
That said though. 10%!! Whoop-de-doo!!
With regard to these polls, yes they are encouraging to us Conservatives but:
1. This is a Mori poll, though it is on trend.
2. We have not seen the new Conservative policies yet.
3. We do not know who is going to lead Labour.
4. We do not know what scandals are going to befall this Government.
I don’t think 2 matters as most people liked our policies last time they just did not like the party and besides which few will know what the policies are when they vote.
I don’t think 3 will make much difference as room for manouver will be limited, the new leader can’t move significantly without loosing voters, and more importantly I am not sure the Labour party have enough fresh untainted talen to make a difference and even if they did they can’t clear out the tainted without causing huge internal issues.
I think 4 is obvious. The press are after this government, right or wrong and will cast everything in a bad light no matter how small it actually is. The only thing that can save Labour is a good England world cup, and then the press deciding to leave off in the silly season. I can’t see that happening even if England do well.
WRT Bromley, UKIP may hold their deposit, but I can’t see any reason why they should do better than that.
79. Can I get a bet on Labour losing their deposit?
OK, guys, back to what we are here for… do people think this poll will change the betting? IG hasn’t moved.
My personal view is that the tipping point has been passed and NuLab is on the way out. As most markets are “biggest party” rather than “majority party”, now is a good time to pick up Tory spreads, with the expectation of people gradually getting the message over the next couple of months, with Cameron’s Conservatives firmly established as favourites before the conferences begin when it might be time to cash in a bit of profit.
80. They start from 22%, it would be a total disaster for them to lose the deposit.
The fatc that they won’t probably invest time and resources there could help your bet, Fred, though.
24 Andrea: “Tony Benn is still waiting for the arrival of a Labour government:”
So his money’s on Cameron then? (on the logic of ‘better the devil you don’t know….’)
RE 81, From what I can tell the Conservatives have a spring in their step and labour dont, so that looks like a good position to adopt.
Also bearing in mind that Prescott staying till then will be very bad for Labour and could also lead possibly (though unlikely) a bloody attempt to vote him out. That said the only thing worse for Labour than Prescott staying till then would be him going sooner and forcing an early vote.
52 “Armand Hammer once said that when he looked into the eyes of Trotsky they were the eyes of a fanatic - he only saw eyes like that once again, and they were Tony Benn’s. ”
He presumably never met the Vulcan then? (and didn’t dare look into Maggie T’s eyes in case he’d melt)
The NuLab Project is over. Blair is on the way out and I will be dancing in the streets!
It became nothing more than a hollow Blair vanity project built on deceit and orchestrated by spin and bluff with no substance or principle. And now it has been popped.
It is hard to think of a policy area where Blair hasn’t been slippery and spinful or betrayed all that Blair once said he stands for.
Tony Blair has caused more damage than any other PM in history. He has undermimed his own party, the UN, British democracy, British freedoms, British security. He is a traitor and his judgement day is coming.
Why the sychophants stood by him through all the damage is hard to say. It is a sad reflection on human nature that power corrupts.
39 Chris D “still trying to think of an off message libdem.”
‘Off message’ or ‘off for a massage’? I can think of maybe one who could fill both roles?
82. …if I could put it on! I acknowledge it’s a bit of a long shot, but given the national situation, likely Labour voter apathy, possible Lib Dem squeeze of the Labour vote, it seems like a decent punt.
Re. UKIP there is an amusing comments thread on eureferendum.com which reveals them in a very poor light. No surprise to me, having had some contact with them in the past, but perhaps an eye opener for one or two other interested PB.commers.
86 Still, could be worse. Could be John Major.
86 “Tony Blair has caused more damage than any other PM in history. He has undermimed his own party, the UN, British democracy, British freedoms, British security. He is a traitor….”
all true. The Emperor has no clothes at all - with the possible exception of progress in Northern Ireland as a continuation of Major’s stuff there.
“…and his judgement day is coming.”
Are you suggesting that there is still some justice in the world? Quick Constable, shoot that dangerous man!
Tony Benn, in charge of Labours awful ‘big is best’ industrial strategy was responsible for conning Donald Stokes into merging his successful Leyland group (Leyland bus and truck, along with Triumph cars) into the ailing BMC in 1968 and thereby creating the worlds biggest automotive Turkey.
He promised millions of cash aid which turned out to be tied to supporting lame duck BMC factories producing badly made and out of date cars.
He actively prevented Stokes making the kind of streamlining measures that could have made Leyland another VW group.
It was a scandal that has cost countless billions of taxpayers pounds over decades and took Britain from being the worlds largest car exporting nation to not having a single home-owned car manufacturer in less that 30 years.
Tony Benn was directly responsible in the long run for destroying more British manufacturing jobs than Mrs Thatcher ever was.
88. Fred, the Labour girl said she could win:
“”I’m passionate about my local area and it is a real honour to be selected again. I was runner-up last June but realistically anything can happen in byelections therefore I feel I have a fighting chance of success. To sum it up: I’m from Bromley and for Bromley.”
I know she has to say it, but it still sounds bizarre!
The poll is genuinely good news for the Conservatives. As a good democrat, I welcome it. As a punter, I am keeping my money in my pocket. We are far to far out from a GE to start taking a long position with any confidence. The major imponderable is of course the labour handover of power. Much will depend on how that goes.
My best guess at the moment is that an overall majority for the conservatives of anything up to about 40 has become a distinct possibility. It’s going to be interesting - and hopefully profitable!!
Very odd, friend of mine has just texted to say Thatcher has passed away. Can’t find anything about that anywhere. Can’t see why he would ‘joke’ about that.
It seems increasingly clear that if the Labour rot is to be stopped, leadership change is needed sooner rather than later. There is a stench around Blair, Prescott and one or two other ministers that is now contaminating the entire Labour brand. Every day that TB now remains at the helm makes it harder for his successor to rebuild a brand that will be competitive at the next GE.
Meanwhile DC is getting the same free pass that was given to TB in 1997. The media are all agog at the bright shiny newness of it all; they’re all bored/disillusioned with Labour and so are (often subconsciously) ramping Dave. The fact that the LibDems have elected a fogey as leader has just facilitated DC in his capacity to take the limelight.
Is it really any wonder that the Tories are now polling well?
Apologies, idiot of a prat of a ‘mate’ sent me that. What a plonker of a ‘friend’ I have. Apologies to all for that.
Jack - What slumming it in a pub, no luncheon basket from Hambleton Hall??
They also have a nice croquet lawn there!
one of the nations greatest restaurants at Hambleton Hall
Jack W - this is also the restaurant where a mischievous local convinced my (very) credulous mother-in-law that there is a pipe in Rutland water that is used to pump water from one end to the other to make sure it is always level.
Dinky has one of the best gigs in parliament but it doesn’t stop the LibDems producing leaflets that say “one more heave” and ‘there’s only one way to get rid of the tories in Rutland’, I have to admire their optimism.
90. That’s a bit overstated, Zebidee. I’m as disappointed by TB as anybody but you can’t just ignore his role in the Balkans. He also played a major part in making Labour a credible alternative to a discredited Conservative government. Those are not minor achievements.
99. As a backroom boy GB is brilliant but is he someone who will work on the centre stage. On T.V he looks wooden and forced and with no charisma. Unfortunately politics nowadays demands that.
95. Andy C, you say the media are “all agog at the bright shiny newness of it all”, but what is interesting to me is that they aren’t all agog. The DTel and the DMail are distinctly un-agog and it is only in recent weeks that the Sun’s agog-ness has been apparent to the naked eye.
The media most agog are those whose allergy to Tories was the most acute - Guardian, Observer, Independent, Times and even the BBC.
There’s no fanatic like a convert.
99. Which particular Balkans triumph were you thinking of Peter?
86, The Nulab project is over dont think so, continued more likley by Cameron.
Still you can dance to that, if it makes you happy.
Chris, perhaps your “friend “is obliquely referring to the weekend reports that Blair is planning a state funeral for the Baroness Margaret Thatcher, as and when she shuffles off this mortal etc.
If the reports are true, it’s surely Blair’s last yah-boo-sucks to Old Labour. Though of course I think Mrs T should get at least a state funeral, if not immediate canonisation.
100 I agree. I hope that GB gets it, despite perceived media failings and advice on this site to the contrary. He clearly isn’t part of the “one of us” Oxbridge mafia that surround Blair and now Cameron.
It would be a real revolution he pulls it off. There will be alot of angry people who will be outside the loop for the first time in years. Is he up to it?
“Margaret Thatcher, Clement Atlee, your lads took one hell off a beating”
Well it was a 2-1 defeat against Norway, in a world cup qualifier.
Feels like Labour supporters now.
Will a good World Cup help labour from the doom who knows.
However a good run for England in euro 96, didnt help Major and the Conservative administration.
81. I think it’s more than possible to foresee the Conservatives getting more votes than Labour, but because of the bias in the electoral system it’s still going to be hard for the Tories to become the largest party, even if they only miss by a few seats.
99. Peter I am just wondering whether it is possible to be too cruel to Tony Blair. The jury is still out.
I accept what you say about the Balkans with some qualification - a lot was too little and too late and the outcome (not totally ’sorted’ yet by any means) so far has had an awful lot more to do with luck than judgement.
As for: “He also played a major part in making Labour a credible alternative to a discredited Conservative government……”
surely you meant:
“He also played a major part in making Labour a Conservative alternative to a discredited government.” ?
I can just see him now giving the Eulogy at the Thatcher funeral. It would be his second ‘Diana’ moment.
105 - On that note, I suppose the (only) one alloyed joy of GB in No. 10 would be the outpouring of love all from all quarters of Mandy being a one-term EU Commissioner
But will Tony deprive him of even that?
104 When Thatcher dies (can she?) and lies in state, it will be exactly how it was for the Queen Mother…
There will lines of people, queued up to enter Westminster Abbey, extending along one bank of the Thames and then back along the other reaching out to Tower Bridge…
They will come from all corners of the nation…
All waiting patiently…
To do a little dance on her grave and to give a traditionally British two fingered salute.
By the way, any news on whether we are close to Thatcher meeting her maker (down below)?
110 - You sound like quite a nice sort of guy
My friend could have got his wires crossed I suppose, pretty daft thing to text me though.
It’ll certainly split the nation I would think as Thatcherism does now.
109-” I suppose the (only) one alloyed joy of GB in No. 10 would be the outpouring of love all from all quarters of Mandy being a one-term EU Commissioner ”
Don’t underestimate the power of Brazilian wizards!
113 - I’ve suddenly begun experiencing these sharp pains….
110 - I can’t believe you’re wasting playtime at the geeky Computer Club, go outside and play football or something, it’s double maths in twenty minutes.
99-Surely not when he bombed Serbia minus UN permission and Robin Cook did not feel the UN was important enough to resign?
O/T-Could Blair be Labour’s Pete Wilson? He won the California 1994 governor’s race for the Republicans but in so doing so alienated so many groups that the Republicans were locked out until The Governator came along? Will that be Blair’s legacy once he’s gone? A Labour party tearing itself apart in hoc to political correctness and Anglophobia?
110. People often compare Blair with Thatcher - and they have a point: they are both three-term prime ministers, initially mistrusted by their parties (and always mistrusted by some), prime movers of controversial policies etc.
But there is one big difference. A of people strongly admired and still fiercely respect Margaret Thatcher, to the point of love or worship, sometimes (and many people still revile her of course).
No one, but no one, strongly admires or loves Tony Blair. Apart from himself.
Blair will never get a state funeral. That’s for sure.
114. John, I didn’t mean on you, but on Gordon!
104. Really… Blair planning a state funeral for Margaret Thatcher? That would be the first state funeral of a commoner since Winston Churchill. I bet that would raise some eyebrows from Old Labourites… including some unions.
Still, although I do support the idea, some cynical people on here may think Blair’s giving a hint that any Prime Minister who wins three general elections should get a state funeral… setting a precedent which a future PM would feel obliged to continue when TB passes on.
02 Fred and 08 Zebidee.
Fred, I was thinking about the way he encouraged a reluctant Clinton-led US government to become involved in the Balkans. I think this lessened the bloodshed and helped towards a more favorable outcome than might otherwise have been the case. There were no votes in it for him. He seemed to be doing it on principle and I think he was right.
Zebidee, Thanks for your thoughtful and balanced response. Events are never ’sorted’. Nevertheless I think an awful lot of people, particularly in Kosovo, have every reason to be thankful for the intervention which he led.
As regards your second point, I really have no quarrel with your rephrasing. You see, I rather like conservative government and he made the Labour party a perfectly credible conservative government at a time when the Conservative party was hopelessly divided and had lost much of its credibility.
As for Thatcher, I hated her with a passion when she was PM. I have no difficulty acknowledging her undoubted achievements now, although being centreist by nature I don’t think I could ever vote for her type of conservatism.
111. Well put.
I’ll be there with tears in my eyes…..
110- That post was out of order.
I don’t think Blair’s been horrifically bad. He displayed poor judgement over Iraq, and didn’t, in the last analysis, demonstrate the standards of honesty and decency one would like our PMs to show. But, generally, the government has neither been amazing or disastrous.
This is a good poll for the Tories, it confirms what we already know - Cameron is a success, he is presenting the Conservatives as a centrist force and attracting back disillusioned Tory voters.
However, our Tory friends shouldn’t get too over exited. Blair’s govt is imploding and the LibDems are treading water, and yet the Tories are beginning, just beginning, to poll the kind of figures which make them contenders at the next election.
We look like we are returning the the traditional pattern of mid-term blues, which Blair managed to avoid during his 1st & 2nd terms, but which aflicted virtually every other post war govt. The big question is whether Labour will start to pick up again once he’s gone.
My guess is that there will be a Brown bounce and that Brown will take it and run will a ’snap’ election within a few months. If that is the case then the Tories need to be polling 2-3% more to become confident to denying Labour a majority next time let alone winning a majority themselves.
RE 123, Well, if that is your view, would you vote for them again?
110 and others. I just don’t get the personal anti-Thatcher thing at all.
I am now 46. I was an angry young man in the late 1970’s - Britain was bust, we had nothing to be proud of, our industry was going down the pan, factories were shutting everywhere, unions had brought down one Tory Government and were in the process of bringing down another, Labour one. The whole country seemed to have lost the will to succeed. What kind of a future did that leave for me and my peers?
Mrs Thatcher was NOT personally responsible for the renaissance of the country any more than she was personally responsible for unemployment or the miners strike.
She was a particularily adept leader of a very clever team of people with a wide mixed political views (wets and drys) who felt able to take some fairly radical decisions because they enjoyed quite wide public support for change.
Most of the decisions they took would be seen as to the left of Tony Blairs new Labour regime; including propping up swathes of British industry until eventually Europe-wide legislation stopped them.
The reason Britain changed in the 1980’s was -as always- because Britons themselves changed.
My generation - brought up on a diet of industrial unrest, decline and decay, became managers and businesspeople determined to do a better job. My opposites in trade unions became equally determined to modernise and de-politicise their unions instead of betraying their members with strikes that more usually put them on the dole.
Mrs Thatcher helped, but I am certain Britain would have gone the same route whoever was at the Conservative helm.
RE 124, I take your point, but it will all depend on how long this current rot goes on for, and how badley tained Gordon looks.
That said it also depends on how the conservatives attack Gordons record. I would find it hard to believe the Conservatives do not have a stock plan to deal with Gordon.
117. No one, but no one, strongly admires or loves Tony Blair. Apart from himself.
…and Michael Gove, of course.
“I can’t fight my feelings any more: I love Tony … as a rightwing polemicist, all I can say looking at Mr Blair now is, ‘What’s not to like?’”
117 “Blair will never get a state funeral. That’s for sure.”
No Sean, he has surely done more than enough ‘lying in state’ already!
23. Yes, I agree, Observer. On the whole I think he has been a good PM who made a terrible error over Iraq. Remove that and Labour would have been a shoo-in for a fourth term.
My money is still on a hung parliament. I just don’t see Cameron doing it. I suspect the Tories will pile up votes in the likes of Surrey Heath and parts of the South East, and do very well in London, but elsewhere? Scotland, Wales, the North? I doubt it.
Cameron is just a jumped-up Eton schoolboy who’s never held any office of any kind. It’s the job of Prime Minister he’s running for, not the 6th form debating society. Who is he? Pitt the bloody younger? People will hesitate at the polling booths. They will remember the last time they chose style over substance. The economic picture will be far less rosy at the next election.
Sorry, but the Tories under Cameron or anyone else are not going to win seats like Carlisle, Dewsbury, Wakefield, Truro, Argyll, Newport W, Roxburgh, Yeovil, Edinburgh S, Halifax, Hampstead, Kingswood, Oxford W, Sherwood, Tooting, and a dozen others as “predicted” by Baxter.
If TB is thinking of allowing a state funeral for Mrs T then I bet it’s only because he wants one in due course for himself and needs to set a precedent!
Seriously, I can see little justification for any PM being allocated such an honour.
131 RodCrosby. Because Baxter uses uniform swing, the predictions for individual seats aren’t always great. However if the Tories pick up 40% of the vote next time round, that would be a huge swing and I think you’d see some very surprising gains.
BTW in 2002, who would have predicted Labour losing Manchester Withington?
128.”and Michael Gove, of course.
“I can’t fight my feelings any more: I love Tony ”
New Tory sex scandal! New Con MP tries to seduce New Lab leader!
First reactions:
Lord Tebbitt: the perverts are taking over the party
Clare Short: I told you so: Tony was always ready to literally jump in bed with the tories
Francis Maude: It’s a sign we’re chaning! look we’re changing! Tony is welcome in our A List along with Boy George, Ann Widdecombe’s black cat and the Da Vinci Code.
Ming Campbell: uhm, er, oh,…(sorry problems in comunication)
125 - I never have, Benedict: voted Tory or tactically anti-Labour in every one of their past three elections, although I’m more of a detached voter who sees the Tories as the least worst option than a thoroughgoing supporter.
133.”BTW in 2002, who would have predicted Labour losing Manchester Withington?”
It’s all Karen Bradley’s faul!
133 Baxter doesn’t use unifom swing, he uses proportional loss, whic tends to exaggerate movements. I remember a mid-eighties headline from the Guardian: “Alliance zoom to 266 seats - on a computer.” Says it all.
Did Labour lose Withington to the Tories? (who once held it) There will always be exception results in any election, but (by definition) never only on the plus side. It seems the party capable of producing really sensational results, for the last couple of elections is the LibDems.
The picture at the top of this item shows David Cameron. But it is surely more John Prescott who is causing the government to slump in the polls.
If you head for Roy Hattersley’s Guardian article today, (obviously penned after slobbering down a hefty portion of chocolate pudding!) you will see why the ‘New Brother’ Project appears to have seriously lost its way:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1790434,00.html
If Guardianistas are giving up on them who do they have left?
131. Rod Crosby, I’m originally from Wakefield and I’d consider it a near miracle if the Conservatives won it in a GE (despite the fact they came painfully close in ‘83) and the Tories only won Dewsbury by about 2700 votes in ‘83 and lost it in ‘87. As for Wales, the Tories will probably win 5 or 6 seats in Wales at the next GE, which is a result I would be happy with.
126 - I didn’t realise you were 46, Marcus. Had you pencilled in as a lot younger for no particular reason.
I see your argument on Thatcher. I don’t share the visceral loathing of Thatcher that is fairly common in Labour and the Lib Dems. But I sort of see why it exists. It’s all very well you and I saying that the economy needed reforming and became healthier because of it, but a huge number of individuals and communities were hammered very hard and never really recovered. If you had been 46 in 1980 and one of those personally affected by the early 80s recession, you may well never have recovered. You would have been pretty bitter seeing yuppies living it up while you scraped around later in the 80s for a job which was nowhere near as good as the one you lost. And it would be cold comfort really to be told now as a pensioner that it was all for the good of the nation.
As I say, I don’t share the loathing. There is an historical debate but on balance I think it may be true on balance that the “alternative” in 1979 of a Callaghan/Jenkins/Prior sort of compassionate reform wouldn’t have worked. But it is really quite easy to understand why Thatcher aroses strong anti feelings from pretty reasonable people.
Re 135, Well, OK, but the number of Labour voters I know who say they will not vote Labour agin is large. What is your experiance?
I always follow W.C. Fields’ philosophy “I never vote in favourrr. I always vote agaainst.”
That way, amongst other things, I’m never disappointed. Thus the only time I’ve voted Tory was in 1997, when the rest of the country was going lemming-like for NuLabour. John Major got my sympathy vote. I could see that the system would deliver a wholly unjustified landslide to Phoney Toney, and I wanted no part of it. If only a few more people could think like this, we might get better government!
I reckon that it is already the case that more people “vote against” than “vote for”. I may be wrong. Is there any evidence from polls that could back this up? I would be really interested to know.
BTW Apologies for any offence caused RE Thatcher funeral post. Just trying to highlight how potentially insane a state funeral could be for such a divisive figure.
142. Rod - 1997 was the only time I’ve ever voted Tory too!
How do people think that the Lib Dem move to the right of the Tories(Tax cut being suggested, longer jail terms, having an old man in charge) will go down? Will we see rightwingers voting Lib Dem?? will left wingers move away and vote for DC’s New Cons and what the hell will Labour do, become the New Lib Dems?????
140 James. I don’t support a State Funeral for the Lady. She was and remains a hugely divisive figure and I wouldn’t rule out public demonstrations should such a funeral take place.
The difference with Wellington, Churchill and Thatcher is that whilst Wellington and Churchill were at times hugely partisan politicians they provided in their nations hour of deadliest need such a quality of leadership that resolved the nation in the path of liberty and emerging modern democracy. The same cannot be said of Thatcher, despite her role in changing the economic status of the country.
Far be it for me to place myself as any kind of arbiter of good taste, but is not public discussion of Mrs T’s funeral arrangements more than slightly yukky? I know we can blame Tony Balir for introducing the speculation on the subject but might we not ‘give it a rest’?
I support a state funeral for Maggie, as long as they bury her BEFORE she dies!
131: What odds would you offer me on the Tories winning Tooting next time then?
Much of the Tooting electorate are exactly the sort of swing voters most likely to be tempted by Cameroonian Toryism. The Labour majority was almost halved last time, and that was without the Cameron effect.
If we can win in areas where we didn’t even win in 1983, then radical change to the political landscape is possible, and on the current polling figures that’s exactly what will happen in the next election.