Was Rawnsley just wishful thinking on Cameron?
June 14th, 2006-
Has the “Tory leader in steep decline” claim got any foundation?
In a feature on David Cameron and Tories in the Observer Andrew Rawnsley made this assertion - the peg for most of the article:- “To the concern of his circle, there are already signs that his novelty is wearing thin. His personal approval ratings are in steep decline.”
This has sparked off much discussion on the site and in a number of Lib Dem blogs particularly those that backed Ming Campbell for leader. So what’s the truth about Rawnsley’s “steep decline” claim. Can it be substantiated?
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Where it is easy to go wrong is when a result from one pollster is compared with numbers from another pollster using a different methodology and often asking a different question. The only valid polling comparisons are when you compare like with like from the same pollster.
What’s clear is that the proportion of those giving Cameron a positive rating has remained very stable - what has changed is that more of the Labour and Lib Dem supporters who said they didn’t know six months ago have now gone into the “anti-Cameron” camp.
Mori have asked the question “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?” five times since Cameron became leader. In January and February the rating was 31%; in March it was 32%; the figure dropped to 29% at the start of May but then rose to 33% in last week’s poll.
YouGov for the Sunday Times asked “Do you think David Cameron will do/ is doing well or badly as leader of the Conservative Party?” in December and got a 52% positive response. In March the figure rose to 55% while at the end of April the pollster recorded 51%.
YouGov for the Telegraph asked a slightly different question “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with David Cameron as Leader of the Conservative Party?” This produced a 39% positive response in January, 46% in February and 38% in March.
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Looking at what detailed polling data is available the worrying thing for Labour and the Lib Dems must be the high proportion of their supporters still being prepared to give Cameron the benefit of the doubt.
Thus in December YouGov had Labour voters saying by 41-27 that Cameron was doing well. the Lib Dem split was 45-26. At the end of April this had changed to Labour voters splitting 41-41 with Lib Dems at 43-39.
There is little doubt that Cameron’s ratings have stood still and that the margins he enjoyed have declined as December’s “don’t knows” have made up their minds. If Rawnsley had used the term “net approval ratings” his statement would have been more accurate - though perhaps not strong enough to back up the rest of the article. But he didn’t and the “steep decline” claim cannot be substantiated.
Mike Smithson
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I imagine everyone is prone to a little wishful thinking from time to time, Mike. Looks to me like Rawnsley let his NuLab sympathies get in the way of dispassionate analysis when he wrote his Observer piece published on Sunday.
Before the usual suspects jump down my neck, allow me to say that I acknowledge that Cameron is not sweeping all before him, and that he will have hard questions to answer over the next few years - but - the progress he is making in restoring the Tory brand to electability after 15 years on the skids is undeniable and it really is rather churlish for anyone to try.
My take is that these ratings are hardly surprising given the strategy Cameron has adopted, namely one of style over substance.
He has consciously avoided saying anything material about policy and instead sought to position himself away from the horribly tainted ‘brand Tory’ (and the decision to ditch the torch brand is just the latest example of this). Hence there’s relatively little for survey respondents to disagree with - as he simply hasn’t said anything of substance.
In some ways Cameron’s approach is similar to that of Blair from 94-97 but with 2 crucial differences:
1. Blair (whatever you think of him) did make substantial policy moves - and chanced his arm to a far greater degree than Cameron has done of yet.
2. The current government is (despite Iraq and scandals gallore) still yet to reach the depths of unpopularity of the last Tory government. I think that’s something Mike has pointed out on several occasions.
Let’s see how Cameron fairs once he actually says something of substance and comes out with some policy.
Interestingly Ming Campbell’s approach has been exactly the opposite: lots of focus on policy eg the tax plans and even yesterday’s education commission had a clear directional steer. It’s early days but at least Ming is fighting his policy battles now.
Whilst I’d agree that the ’steep decline’ is nonsense [wishful thinking?] the charge that DC is a bit light-weight and inconsistent is starting to stick. Rawnsley rightly argues that ‘this sort of thing begins to accumulate in the subconscious of the public. They nibble away at credibility.’ It’s a gradual process that needs the commentators to join in for it to take proper hold; so expect more and if you dont like it…. Look at the Rawnsley examples and think of the many others not listed.
- spoken about ‘quality of life’ being more important to people than ‘quantity of money’. The morning after attending the Beckhams’ £500,000 party.
- joined the chorus of scorn for Gordon Brown when the Chancellor attempted to wrap himself in Union Jack underpants. Now the selfsame Mr Cameron is riding around with the cross of St George flapping from the back of his bike.
- picks Benny Hill as his favourite lyricist on Desert Island Discs and then launches an attack on gangsta rap.
RA also argues that the DC public image will be much more negative the further North you go. The comparison in a years time with GB will be interesting.
By the way, the scepticism about Cameron is pervasive beyond simply those LD bloggers who supported Ming.
I speak as someone who supported Chris Huhne but is very happy with the direction Ming has been taking us. You’ll find plenty of us on Liberal Review/Apollo, for example.
Cameron is only beginning to expose his soft underbelly for a good prodding - and that’s before he’s even revealed any policy.
Of course the danger with Cameron’s current “policy-lite” strategy is that “policy-lite” can rapidly turn into “Policy? Shite …”.
A good example of this is the Tories being wrong-footed on tax with George Osborne’s announcement that there would be no tax cuts under the Tories rapidly looking cack-handed in contrast to Vince Cable’s skillful tax-cutting package.
Another example may well be Green policy, where Cameron’s warm words are looking increasingly hollow and the moment he risks saying something specific it will be accompanied by howls of displeasure from the Tory shires.
Are there ANY LibDems out there (apart from Mike) who are prepared to admit that Cameron might be capable of being a threat to them?
This table is useful:
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/leaders/cameron/
Seems that the “Approve” figures for Cameron are fluctuating all over the place (rather like the man himself!) but there’s a clear trend in the “Disapporve” figures going up.
Clearly not ‘meltdown’
but a worrying trend for Cameron nonetheless.
Spartacus @ 5:
I don’t think it’s true to say that Cameron has no policies. What we know so far is that:
* he opposes grammar schools
* he opposes tax cuts
* he wants to ban chocolate oranges
* he’s in favour of building on green spaces (and anyone who opposes that is ‘bananas’)
Perhaps once we get a few more policy announcements like these there’ll be yet more fuel to the upward trend in his disapporval ratings.
There seems to be some suggestion that Rawnsley has an ‘agenda’ here. But it’s not just him who’s noticed Cameron’s declining ratings.
The Telegraph (hardly a friend of Labour) has noticed soemthing similar here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/07/ntory107.xml
with a piece by the estimable Anthony King.
More graphical evidence of the decline in Cameron’s net rating here:
http://paulwalter.blogspot.com/2006/06/graphic-steep-decline-of-camerons.html
7 - Have you not read what Mike has written in his lead Observer ? The approval ratings are not all over the place when you compare the same poll asking the same question . The Yougov ST polls ask a rather different question to the other 2 polls . Given the M of E there has been no statistical change in the numbers expressing approval but a steady movement from the Dont Knows to disapproval . Not a meltdown but if I was a Conservative supporter I would be a little but not greatly worried .
6 - Of course DC might be capable of being a threat to the Lib Dems just as hid predecessors MIGHT have been but evidence so far is that the threat may not be as a great it looked when he became leader .
re 7. Observer - you are completely wrong. The UK Polling Report table has to be looked at line by line. Just read what my piece above and do not fall into the trap of comparing one pollster with one question with another pollster which has a different approach.
Cameron’s approval level is pretty solid - in fact it is increasing amongst Tory voters. The anti figures have increased as Lib Dem and Labour don’t knows have now come to a view.
8 - That is a lludicrous caricature!
*He does NOT oppose Grammar schools - he will not introduce any NEW ones, a different matter altogether
*He does NOT oppose tax cuts - he will not put them ahead of economic stability
*He does NOT oppose chocolate oranges - he objects to their constant promotion ahead of more healthy options
*He is NOT “in favour of building on open spaces” - he wants to see a better balance between conserving our countryside and building the new homes we need for the next generation
Whilst I understand that you may have been posting with tongue in cheek, it is important that silly statements like yours are not allowed to stand unchallenged!
6 Alex
Your plea for acknowledgment that Cameron might be a threat to Lib Dems sounded very plaintive! So first off - of course, anyone out there who gives what on the surface sounds like a Lib Dem style message is bound to be some kind of threat to the Lib Dem vote. And so far, Tory poll ratings are up - and it is arguable that in last month’s elections it was mainly the Cameron effect that ensured that the Tories did most of the advancing, and Lib Dems were more or less static. But Cameron has benefited from huge and generally positive media hype, so it is not entirely surprising that he has had a big poll boost. And, at possible risk of sounding sexist - is it not the case that much of the Tory boost is from women, and (?) younger people. This is the first time (ever?) that the Tories have had a relatively young (and!!) attractive leader which has captured some of the “style influenced” vote from Blair.
It remains to be seen if Ming’s possible intellectual / policy appeal can outweigh the “candyfloss”. As Oxonian will know, I am not optimistic for Ming, but I do think Cameron’s honeymoon has now - or is about to - end, and we will see an easing back of current Tory highs.
14 Sorry, Dave Cameron, perhaps “who”has captured, rather than “which”!
Mike is right about the Cameron decline being wishful thinking - a little of bit of “political ramping here”? Cameron is clearly a threat to the LibDems - as even the LibDem-fanatic Eastern Daily Press regional newspaper report today.
I think Mike’s headline figures are: Cameron’s support stay strong, only mroe people are moving from DK to against - and they tend to be non-Tory voters.
Labour and the LibDems ought to still be very worried about porject Cameron.
16 That is the first silly Tory spin post of the day Antony . An approval figure of low to mid 30’s cannot be described as strong and is lower than the Connservative vote share . What approval figure was TB achieving at a similar stage does anyone know?
What should be worrying for the Tories is that the DC approval figures have remained static as many more people have made up their minds about him.
So the Cameron bubble is not about to burst - but it might not get much bigger.
Surely the Tories do have a policy on tax cuts - according to George Osborne’s “Times” piece which someone here helpfully linked to the other day, it is to cut corporate, not personal, taxation. This provides clear blue water from those pesky and irresponsible Lib Dems.
And David Davies wants to abolish parole for lifers, since, as we all know, prison governors and warders have a cushy job which needs to be made far more difficult.
17 - we have to stop comparing everything to Tony Blair 1994-1997. Labour have not been in power for four terms and have not suffered the same mauling that the Tories did from 1990 onwards. Whilst Labour is held in contempt by many it is not yet loathed in a way that Major’s administration became. If you accept (as I do) the maxim that Governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them, then it is too early to expect massive surges in Tory support. Another factor that also counts is that the Lib Dems are not just emerging from a fractious merger fight as they were in the early to mid 1990’s. They remain at a relatively high 16-20% range.
Cameron has turned around a Tory ship that was taking on water and was stuck at 29-33% in the polls. He has made the party interesting and people are consequently willing to listen again. The rise in the polls reflects this. It is unsurprising that many of the DKs are switching to “disapprove” as the expectations that some other party voters projected onto him are not fulfilled. What IS surprising is that a high and rising proportion of Conservative voters give him their approval. I understand that it was expected in Cameron’s camp that more activists would be unhappy with what he was doing.
The key now is for him to hold the ship steady whilst occasionally revealing interesting policy positions. The detail will follow in a year or so’s time. How he handles the policy development will be the key to either future poll advances or a slide back to the low to mid 30’s.
Bromley will be an interesting but not definitive test. It will be hard to increase the majority in absolute or percentage terms, when the LDs are almost certain to overtake a falling Labour party. It is also ideal LD territory in one sense, in that there is a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze. However from what I have seen and heard so far the fabled LD by-election machine has got off to a slow start in Bromley.
The honeymoon is still well and truly being enjoyed!
I do think there is a degree of wishful thinking going on. All this about style over substance seems to be based on the premise that the Tories will never develop any policies. This is plainly untrue.
Policy (unlike with the Liberals) will be produced when the time is right - i.e not the day before England’s first World Cup day - when the public might be willing to take note.
What he has done is got to a stage where people are willing to listen to the Tories again. If - and it is a big if - people like the new policies when they hear them, then I would expect some of the DK’s to approve.
In a feature on David Cameron and Tories in the Observer Andrew Rawnsley made this assertion - the peg for most of the article:- “To the concern of his circle, there are already signs that his novelty is wearing thin. His personal approval ratings are in steep decline.”
This has sparked off much discussion on the site and in a number of Lib Dem blogs particularly those that backed Ming Campbell for leader.
I might almost think you had me in mind, Mike!*
It is a fair point that different pollsters give different answers (to different quesions).
The key words in Rawnsley’s article are “to the concern of his circle”
Now this might be a reflection of the on-going rows between Camron, Maude and Hague. But I suspect it means that the tories have seen more polling that supports the MORI figures.
Alex asks “Are there ANY LibDems out there (apart from Mike) who are prepared to admit that Cameron might be capable of being a threat to them?”
He might, Alex. But it is not a foregone conclusion by any means. IF he is really going to do so he must grow his personal brand enormously and shrink the Tory brand. This will make for a pretty interesting period.
* http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/rawnsley_on_cameron
6. Alex - I will admit to having been worried when he first took over, when I genuinely found him appealing. However, the more it became apparent what a PR spiv he was, the more I began to realise we had little to worry about.
I think a lot of the public are still at the stage of finding him appealing - but I don’t think it’s going to last long.
For me one of the interesting things is how he’s dealing with William Hague, as a possible rival whose ratings have been higher than his own. Hague has been given an impossible task, and one begins to wonder whether it wasn’t deliberate.
6 - There are many LDs on here who believe Cameron is a athreat. A lot of us spent quite a lot of time before he was elected saying the only way the Tories could build a winning electoral coalition was to move to the centre. It was my heartfelt wish that the Tories did not take up our advice - unfortunately Cameron has done just that.
Mike is quite right that Cameron is not in decline - far from it. he increasingly appeals to Tories, and more importantly those who were too embarrased my the party’s previous leaders to vote Tory. However, he is also starting to build up negatives, with swing voters who don’t have any attachment to the Tories and strengthening the attachment of Labour & LibDem waverers to their parties.
Cameron is a threat to the LibDems (as yesterday’s thread showd there’s a consensus that he could win up to about 20 seats from the LDs). His ‘bubble’ is not about to burst, but he may be peaking a little too early.
The ‘dangerous’ thing (if such there is) about ‘lite’ leades like Cameron is that they are well-poised to benefit when
21 Wishful thinking Yes Max but just as much by Conservatives as from supporters of other parties .
The ‘dangerous’ thing (if such there is) about ‘lite’ leaders like Cameron is that they are well-poised to benefit when GOVERNMENTS LOSE ELECTIONS (oppositions do not win them) if the electorate are in denial about needing serious solutions to serious problems.
But the more recent opinion poll fluctuations have been mainly as a result of Labour cock-ups rather than anything Cameron has done.
Apols for 25. Too much croissant-juice on the fingers this morning!
Morning people!
2. Oxonian, Blair made up ’substantial’ policy on the hoof, and look where that got him. Nine years into his Government and they still haven’t got any policies other than power at any cost. The Policy review, when it reports, will be the time to start announcing policies. And DC has said he hopes they are stolen by the Government, as many of the issues are too serious to wait until 2010.
5. Spartacus. Vince Cable’s skillful tax cutting package? I wasn’t aware that there was anything skillful about Vince! I wouldn’t call it a skillful tax package. Maybe a nice peice of spin which dragged the headlines away from Ming’s PMQs performances but not something people understand (or coming from the Lib Dems who will never have to account for it in Government care about) and certainly not skillful. Wasn’t it immediately kicked at hard by many financial journalists?
18. Mike it would worry me if I thought people had made up their minds about David. But I think that many people will reserve judgement until they can see evidence of the change he is bringing about in the party. Something like Nicholas Soames being nice to little animals or Bill Cash being nice to a European. Once evidence of how nice the Tories can be comes out, then we will see DC’s approval rating go skyward, and the parties polling begin to creep higher and higher. There is a danger that if the approval rating of the leader loses sight of the polling level of the party, we will just become NuLab clones in about five years time, with major problems building up for the future. So I see the more gradual, genuine appreciation of change as a major positive step towards winning.
29 The second silly spin post from a Conservative today must be something in the East Anglian air .
26 - Mark we’ve been hearing the same thing from as soon as Cameron took over. You can accuse Tories of wishful thinking but at least we do have reasons to be cheerful. The polls and the council elections show we are slowly making progress in spite of the weaknesses that appear so evedent to Liberal posters but not,it would seem, to the rest of the country.
29 The FT was supportive, Alderman.
It’s the combination of the Telegraph figure (linked to by Spartacus @ 9) and the leader ratings that are bad news for Cameron. As the Telegraph pointed out, in fact the Tories have not made progress in the polls overall in the last 6 months - and at the same time Cameron’s ratings with non-Tories (just the people he needs to win over to break that trend) are steadily falling.
30. Sticks and stones Mark, sticks and stones. And I think it’s waking up to rain that does it!
32. I hadn’t read that article, obviously. I think it is interesting though that many journalists appear to be questioning the ability to recoup the cut in income tax from green taxes. I just don’t think it is sustainable without making some major savings in spending. I happen to think there are savings to be made, but Vinny never offered them.
It would appear that all Mike has managed to prove is that, increasingly, people who like the Conservatives approve of Cameron and people who don’t, don’t - in other words, it’s becoming clear that he’s not going to advance very far beyond the traditional Tory core vote, whereas for a while it looked like he might achieve a break-through.
I also that Ricky at 20 appears, towards the end of his post, to be starting to prepare the ground just a little bit for a poor Bromley result (of course, it’s embedded within the usual cheerleading that we know and love, but it’s there all the same). Astonishing!
7, 11 - the interesting thing is that the nature of the question seems to have much more effect on the “Approve” than the “Disapprove” numbers; in other words, quite a lot of people shift between “Approve” and “Don’t Know” according to the wording of the question. There’s a considerable amount of sentiment along the lines of “He’s OK I suppose, don’t really know a lot about him”.
Clearly the Tories have a right to be pleased with the first impressions Cameron has given. But, as Rik said, it’s still the honeymoon, and it would be complacent to conclude that everything has fallen into place and the next election is in the bag. I don’t think they’re going to be able to get away from the process of making it clearer what they stand for and crystallising the public mind one way or the other.
35. if he won’t advance beyond the core vote, why then have the tories broken out of the 30-33 box in the opinion polls. I take it from the constant trashing of cameron, by liberals who have nothing concrete to suppport their argument (other than two days f resonable coverage in the media) as opposed to the very tangible results we got just over a month ago, that they are scared. Why else would so many try trashing tory posters soon as we say anything its getting a little pathetic.
Polls, columns, opinions - all very good but you can’t argue with the May local election results.
A very good morning Wonkers !!
And what a morning it is ….. an obscenely stonking great cheque lands in Jack’s lap and all is well in the world ……. until Mrs Jack W gets her mits on it ….
…. my good mood will not be denied :
Davy Cameron will be Prime Minister and lead us all into the land of milk and honey ….. hang on I don’t like honey. OK the land of milk chocolate ….. Ooppps as long as it’s not chocolate orange eh Davy !!
Sutton and Torbay will fall in a massive Tory landslide that also see the Lib Dems reduced to a rump of 3 …… get that taxi out again. And poor Labour bring Michael Foot and his donkey jacket back after sinking to 1983 levels.
Jack ….. Jack ….. wake up …you’ve been dreaming ….
37 It is even more pathetic Stuart that when it is pointed out that all is not quite so rosy in Camp David this is regarded as trashing and you do not respond to the point of the thread at all . The approval ratings are there as support for the argument why not pass a comment on them .
39. “Sutton and Torbay will fall in a massive Tory landslide that also see the Lib Dems reduced to a rump of 3 …… get that taxi out again. ”
Jack, would you dare to say who are the 3 survivors?
As Mike says, one needs to look at each polling institute separately. YouGov’s Sunday Times question seems to me the least useful in this context: it is objectively at least arguable that DC is doing his job as leader of the Tories quite well, and the question asks for an objective view. I agree with book value’s post at 36 on the more general feeling.
But remember that the Tories have clearly decided to play it long: they don’t want to say much concrete for at least another year, and are trying to fill the gap with mood music. So far DC has been reasonably successful with this, and if he can keep it up for another 12 months the Tories will be in a good starting position to produce some policies. The public is, though, starting to get a little irritated by it (not least because when they’re cheesed off with the Government the opposition is muted by its lack of alternatives) - another year of Muzak may be hard to take.
What does Rawnsley mean by ‘personal approval ratings’? Does he mean the data the MS refers to, or more general questions like ‘Do you have a favourable/unfavourable impression of David Cameron?’? I think he’s doing a good job as Tory leader, but I don’t have a favourable view of him overall.
At the end of the day, we’re at least 3 years away from another general election, so at the moment it’s largely immaterial. Cameron’s still in his honeymoon with decent polling figures and Tories are hoping that Labour will continue to self-destruct and no-one will pay any attention to Ming. Cameron haters will wait for the honeymoon to end and attack when they smell blood (be it on a personal/style level or on policy, like George Osbourne not promising tax cuts followed a few days later by Lib Dem tax cut plans).
I still think the result of the next election will have more to do with the state of the economy in 2009 than either Cameron or Brown.
40. Mark I have never claimed all is rosy and have frequently said it isn’t and have criticised my party. But as M S said the polls like for Like have remained pretty static I’m reffering not to you but the idiot who soon as a tory posted said 1st stupid tory comment, then 2nd stupid comment and so forth. I don’t believe that type of comment is a valid argument and so yes is pathetic.
42. Nick, do you think the public are more than a little bored when the Conservatives response to yet another Home Office ’scandal’ is ‘DISGRACEFUL’ rather than anything concrete? Or should we keep reflecting the front page of (shudder) the Daily Mail?
“The honeymoon is still well and truly being enjoyed!”
but while the bob-a-job team are watching footie in the bar, is the Bromley bride being tempted to stray Liberally by the best man?
44. No Stuart, that was Mark! See 30 and 17.
40. Also Mark as we have posted quite friendly post to each other for well over a year I resent being called Pathetic when I was not calling your view point but that of some obnoxious twongs that have brought the levels of debate on this site to dangerous lows of recent.
Has anyone taken the time to look at Ming’s approval ratings recently
47. So it is.
can’t read, well what a day you point out like for like is the same and your post is regarded as null and void.
To top it off some B@$£^7d stoned my cat to death last night, sick animals.
The new list of PPS is out:
http://www.parliament.uk/directories/hciolists/Pps.cfm
51 - do you get an extra PPS for being called Hilary?
41 Andrea. 3 remaining Lib Dem seats - our Viscount in CS & ER, our Charlie in RS & L and Danny Alexander in INB & S.
All above the Highland Line ……. rebellion in the wind !!
David “Ted Heath 2″ Cameron novelty is slowly wearing off, as Labour slowly drags itself out of the abyss.
However, he is still doing very, very well, especially by the Tory party’s standards post 1997.
I can’t understand why anyone sane thinks otherwise. Wish he was a free-market capitalist though.
Note to Mike Smithson: You must give up provoking Lib Dems into paroxysms of rage because otherwise the site becomes like Groundhog Day.
Like I said a couple of days ago, the Lib dems really do run the risk of being like a moth in a restaurant kitchen - helplessly attracted to the electrocuter.
Some Lib Dems out there must be frustrated that their colleagues can’t get off the anti-Tory fixation and focus their effort where it might do some good for them- winning Labour seats.
Amazingly yesterday there was agreement that Labour might lose about half a dozen seats to the Lib dems - is that it guys? is that the peak of your ambitions against such an unpopular Government that will have been in power for 12 years or so? - Six seats?
You get a stunning earthquake of a vote in a Labour by-election next door to the Chancellor and yet you pour resources into Bromley -what for? Why bother?
53 - You’ve got the Highlands… but you missed the Islands… (Orkney & Shetland)
Image without substance leaves the Cameron revival looking rootless. -The Times.
Peter Ridell in today’s Times says that..”Persuading voters not to hate the Tory party and to listen to it is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition. The blandness makes the whole exercise appear rather elusive and flimsy.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2224871,00.html
55 - Some Lib Dems out there must be frustrated that their colleagues can’t get off the anti-Tory fixation and focus their effort where it might do some good for them- winning Labour seats.
I think this translates as “I wish the Lib Dems would give up on Torbay”, doesn’t it? You’ll forgive us for not rushing to take you up on your helpful advice.
55 - Not so much moths to a flame but more like a schoolboy football match.
Everyone running after the ball and knackering themselves out so that those who conserve their energy and play a long game can come on strong at the end.
The idea of releasing the tax proposals at this, far too early, stage is just one example. Lib dems should have confidence in their philosophical difference from the other two parties, not be bounced into things like this.
50 S Penketh. Sorry to hear about your puss Admiral.
Several years back in Scotland on my land I caught a local yob using an injured cat as air rifle target practise. Justice prevailed as I smacked him to kingdom come. If the village heard about it, he’d have been out on his ear and worse.
The moggy survived and lives with a neighbour, seemingly none the worse for the horrific ordeal. Hope you’re able to get another cat and catch the monsters responsible. Chin up.
56 Lennon. O & S are be independent !!
55 - “you pour resources into Bromley -what for? Why bother?”
Because there’s a by-election there. If it was in Lewisham West, Lib Dems would pour resources in there. But it isn’t.
60. Thanks Jack W I hope for there sakes i don’t catch them.
59 - The tax proposals came out of a review launched, from memory, immediately after the general election and are due to be approved, I believe, at the Autumn conference. It strikes me that when you make a decision, it’s only polite to let people know
This is a great set of posts by us sad PB addicts. There being no news we create some. I have to say that “Rawnsley Exagerates” is up there with “Pope is catholic” shock to me. But these posts do prove that we are all getting a little nastier and crosser than we were six months ago!
So where are we:
DC a threat to other parties
Labour has problems - seem quite bad
Lib Dems are better off than in mid January, but only time will tell
DC narrative pretty thin and a few commentors beginning to notice
People are making up their mind about DC and shock - some people will end up not liking him
It is still years to the next election
How on earth are we going to last through the silly season?
I think Cameron has done Ok so far and his general ‘ Branding’ strategy seems sound.
I think he can continue with this for another 12 months as long as he follows the other plank of blair’s pre 97 activities- namely clause 4,OMOV etc.
For Cameron This is delivering on changes to the tory party, he doesnt have to deliver substance externally as long as he is seen to be doing it internally.
At present this seems to be the representation/a-list issue and the EPP pull out issue.
Both are starting to look a little wobbly which is no bad thing as it gives the impression of a genuinly difficult issue being adressed.
I’d argue that these are the two major issues Cameron and co have to get cracking with over the next 12 months.- fudging will do real damage.
62. James to be fair in the intereset of democracy I would expect that you would fight to win, obviously I hope you don’t, But every by-election should be fought hard by all the main parties
I agree with Rik - the Tories have their tails up in Bromley and, from my experience in that by-election, few people seem to have heard from the LibDems. Maybe they aren’t paying attention? Where is Rennard when you need him?!?
65 - Funny how this site does seem to resemble the other Palace of Varieties by becoming more febrile, cantankerous and generally grumpy in the summer months. Perhaps “Mr. Speaker” Smithson should declare a Recess and close the site down for a month or so…
BV at 58 “I think this translates as “I wish the Lib Dems would give up on Torbay”, doesn’t it? You’ll forgive us for not rushing to take you up on your helpful advice.”
Drat, you saw through my cunning plan….
Whilst everyone including Andrew Rawnsley (a committed New Labour supporter), can select the poll that suits their position, ignore the polls that don’t fit and naturally ignore a REAL poll of 5 weeks ago which completely nullify’s their argument.
71. But you forget john - in the May elections the LDs INCREASED their seats - LDs winning here - DC must be in panic..
I can’t understand why Rawnsley would write such an article, perhaps because it’s been a quiet week? The only important polls that matter is how you would vote in a general election and to a far lesser extent, who do you prefer as Prime Minister. For both you need to be leading all other leaders, which as far as I know, Cameron is doing?
In the US the most important opinion poll isn’t how you would vote in a general election but the President’s Approval Rating, no other poll matters in the US General Election. Usually if your polling well on this, you’ll win. Bush’s approval ratings prior to his re-election in 2004 where higher than Kerry, he won, simple as that. In each country there will be one key poll question which will be key but in the UK, ‘personal’ approval ratings don’t mean anywhere near as much as they do in the US, which clearly Rawnsley either doesn’t understand or ignored.
On the previous article on the US Mid Terms, I think the Republicans are on course to lose 2 or 3 rather than 3 or 4. Missouri and Ohio look tough, but Republicans are in the stronger position because they have more money in those races, hold the other senate seat already in both and those states lean Republican already. Pennslyvania is indeed a lost cause for the Republicans, it could be close but Santorum is an inconsistent Republican at best and to be a hardline Repubilcan in a state which usually leans slightly Demoncrat was never a good idea. I’m sure Arlen Specter is a factor in how Santorum has managed re-election, as he’s a far more popular senator in Pennslyvania. In any case, the Senate will remain Republican. As for the House, it will be more uncertain but due to gerry mandering it will remain essentially Republican. But this gerry mandering is a result of Democrats and Republicans, not just because of Republicans, so the situation the Democrats are in is of their own making.
Well done yet again Mike on demolishing another dodgy opinion-poll analysis by some have-a-go amateur in the MSM. The problem with Rawnsley and others is that they’ve made up their minds DC is ephemeral and devoid of substance and can’t bring themselves to believe that the rest of the universe hasn’t grasped this glaring truth. So they look at the data and see what they want to see, like old men finding pictures in coals. This, I imagine, is a similar condition many Tories suffered with Tony Blair in the early days. As Matthew Parris said, every couple of years he’d write a piece predicting Blair’s decline and fall as the populace finally saw through him, believed it, but it never happened, until he felt like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street prophesising the end of the world is nigh.
Cameron is here to stay (sorry my dears, the grass roots won’t rise up, he won’t be ousted by the Tombstone Group and replaced with Edward Leigh) and I believe the next General Election is his for the taking.
In the meantime, although it’s tedious for the rest of us, we’ll put up with you frustrated Lib Dems using this forum as an outlet for your collective scream for help.
73 - Bush’s approval ratings prior to his re-election in 2004 where higher than Kerry, he won, simple as that
This was actually quite unusual - Bush was slightly above Kerry but a little under 50%. The pattern in many previous US elections had been that being ahead wasn’t enough if you were under 50, as the undecideds tended to give the challenger the benefit of the doubt (probably the opposite of the tendency in the UK).
Agree though that approval ratings are less important than voting intention here.
Stuart. Sorry to hear about your cat. What a horrible thing to happen.
Cameron is moving to the centre because all the research tells him that that’s where the votes are. I’m puzzled by Conservative activists though. How can the same people that waxed lyrical about Michael Howard now be doing the same for David Cameron? Cameron seems to be moving so close to Blair I really can’t understand why these same Tories didn’t vote Labour in ‘97, 01′ and 05′?
I think Cameron has to be very concerned about his gimmickery. It’s very easy to become a figure of fun-like Prescott and his two jags-and once this happens it’s usually irreversable.
35 - a rather silly posting!
I am not at all pessimistic about our chances but being realistic the LDs are likely to overtake Labour for second place and with their track record COULD eat into the overall majority even if the Tory share of the vote rises.
I am though, very optimistic about the outcome. Bob is a good candidate with some local profile already and the LDs seem not to be throwing their usual effort into this seat.
13 Rik - if he is NOT in favour of ‘building on open spaces’, what is he in favour of building on? All homes, as far as I am aware, are built on open spaces.
74. Why do we think the public are likely to see through Cameron faster than they saw through Blair? Because the whole thing is speeded up, and the articles saying he’s see-through are coming much, much thicker and faster than they ever did with Blair.
Very sorry about your cat, S. How horrible.
76 - Roger it was pretty easy to get excited about Michael Howard after being led by IDS. Michael Howard may well have saved the party from losing even more seats at the last election and I believe the party owes him a debt of gratitude.
However the challenge now is to win enough support to form a government and not to pick up a few marginals hear and there. The challenge is different so the approach has to be different.
77 - If the outcome were Conservative 50%, Lib Dem 35%, I’d be reasonably content. Anything better than that would, IMO, be very good.
I agree with Bullseye at 24 on this. cameron clearly has the potential to be a threat to the Lib Dems - BUT that potential could easily be undermined as time goes on.
So far he has clearly managed to have some positive impact on the Tory image - more people are considering the Tories and and their existing supporters are more positive. BUT the lack of substance is already starting to show and impacting on falling ratings amongst other party supporters.
It is also the case that the other parties have not yet developed clear lines of attack. As time goes on they will do, and this will further damage Cameron. I suspect the Lib Dems will keep pointing out the lack of substance and this will appeal well to their firm support and some of the waverers they have lost recently. Labour will presumably keep on claiming that he is a wolf in sheep’s clothing and this will help them and the Lib Dems.
But the Lib Dems would be silly to convince themselves that he is no threat.
76: I think Cameron has to be very concerned about his gimmickery. It’s very easy to become a figure of fun-like Prescott and his two jags-and once this happens it’s usually irreversable.
Agreed, Cameron will be heading footballs with Kevin Keegan and handing out awards at the Brits next. When he falls that low, he’s finished.
55 - ‘what for? Why bother?’
Is it really that difficult to work out?
55 ‘Amazingly yesterday there was agreement that Labour might lose about half a dozen seats to the Lib dems - is that it guys? is that the peak of your ambitions against such an unpopular Government that will have been in power for 12 years or so? - Six seats?’
I don’t think anyone in the Lib Dems has said we only plan to win six seats from Labour. Believe it or not the Lib Dems don’t decided their targeting strategy based on a few people posting things here.
According to ConHome, Pauline Latham has been selected as the Tory candidate for Mid Derbyshire. She was on the A List and she’s a Derby councillor. She fought Broxtowe in 2001.
IIRC Baskerville predicted her right!
86. I sure did.
59 - I disagree. The Lib Dem’s strength is in being seen to have more substance than the Tories. By starting to release hard policies at this stage they demonstrate that they have some substance and are clear about their direction.
It is also important to the Lib Dems to get their main policy strands out early to give thme time to sink in by the next election. It takes longer for the Lib Dems, as the third party, to achieve this.
The big risk for Cameron is that while Labour are seen to be governing and the Lib Dems are seen to be churning out policy documents he will be seen as a performing poodle. This could be quite appealing in a Lib Dem leader like Kennedy who is never expected to govern- but not for a Tory. All the ones i know hate flim flam. He might have a year to get some policies but during that year he better leave his days in PR behind
87. Baskerville, sadly there’re no markets on tory selections!
Do you agree with reports that Simon Walker is one of the favourites for Folkestone?
89: …while Labour are seen to be governing…
I take it you’re using that phrase very loosely.
90. I’m afraid I have no view on Folkestone. I don’t know the area well and have no inside info on the candidates. However, Mid Derbyshire does show that the A-list was not totally flawed (apart from not having me on it!).
92. I think that the majority of seats will select from the A List now….it’s already 2 out 2.
Our government is to give Amnesty and British Passports to 870,000 illegal immigrants.
This is a Great Step forward. Britian needs the valuable skills of Illegal Immigrants. English racists should shut up whinning and get with the program.
The new Britons vote Labour which will ensure more progressive policies in the future.
3 Cheers for Tony Blair, Labour and the UK!!
89 etc… If Cameron brings out detailed policies at the moment, not only will they be out of date by the time of the next election, but the most popular elements of them will have been stolen. The Lib Dems are in no danger of this have brought out extremely courageous proposals (if you’ll excuse the Humphreyism).
I really can’t see Joe Public caring about what policies anyone has for the next few months… Wait for the conference season before makng dire predictions…
Valerie & Roger thanks
Baskerville - whats your prediction for the Sutton and Cheam selection?
94. Good to see that ironic posts remain of as high a quality as usual on here!
97 Adam Rickitt
Some of the Libdem spinners do make me laugh.
So how popular is Ming-ids?
99, Damn, I named him!!! Please, pardon me!!!
94: Britian needs the valuable skills of Illegal Immigrants.
Perhaps the Tories should propose they’re employed as their planned border police. Poachers make best gamekeepers and all that.
Interestingly the polling analysis produced by Anthony Wells shows that DC does far better in the Sunday Times You Gov polls than in others. The Rawnsley analysis is silly; DC’s rating was bound to fall among Lab/LD supporters but he’s very popular with Tory voters and, I suspect, with those who have no strong affiliation. Sadly I cannot agree with Ken Livingstone having as much say as me in choosing the next Tory candidate for mayor!
99 - cool!
97. Well, I’d pick you Rick, but, again, S&C ain’t on my patch.
Before anyone starts to think of me as PB.com’s Tory selection seer, I only gently pointed out that Pauline was a great candidate and had all the right qualifications… I wasn’t on the selection panel or even a voter, just an interested and reasonably informed observer.
97 - Derek Laud.
I’d missed this from yesterday - Lib Dems also likely to cut headline corporate tax rate:
‘Sir Menzies will also promise: “Our approach to business tax is to make it simpler, to strip out a lot of the complex reliefs and hand the money back to business in lower corporation tax rates.”‘
The presence of Rickitts does make the the “A” list seem pretty funny. I was watching TV the other night and they showed a clip of him sitting between Harman and Bakewell on Andrew Marrs sofa. I told a friend of mine that the guy in the center was Adam Rickitt the new Tory would-be-MP and she laughed like a drain!
105. Baskerville, don’t try to be too modest now!
You’re the tory selection guru now……
88 - I disagree with the tactic of giving definite policies this early before an election. It might be ‘polite’ as another poster had it but it’s very naive. Firstly, you set them up to be knocked down and then you could be left with a damaged policy, secondly, if they *are* effective ideas they can easily be stolen and ‘we thought of it first’ isn’t an effective election strategy.
The only reason this came so early is because Ming was having trouble getting himself across and needed a relaunch. I’m surprised that the leadership were bounced into it so easily. They should have shown the confidence that the tories are showing by refusing to let others dictate their timetable.
108 But on the other hand Roger, what’s that saying about “all publicity being good publicity”? Voldemort comes across well in all the TV clips and newspaper articles I’ve seen him write. Wherever he ends up as a candidate I wouldn’t like to be strategising against him…
111. Anna, he would be my favourite choice of an opponent. I prefer to face him than Pauline Latham.
The “come across well” is subjective, you could think it, Roger could think the opposite and it’s a never end debate.
110 - No, I understand it was always timetabled for announcement in the summer well before the party conference - that goes back to when the review was launched under Kennedy.
Also, the policy is not at great risk of being stolen as Osbourne has already announced that it is Conservative “policy” not to have a policy on this.
112 But Andrea what on Earth do you put on the leaflets to attack him…
“Shock! Horror! He appeared naked in a pop video!”
or “Gosh! He was on one of the most popular soaps in the country!”
Whatever you do he just gets free publicity for his campaign. Added to which he may well get some random coverage on the news and certainly lots of mentions in the local newspaper. What’s the betting that when he is selected it makes headlines obn the BBC?
110: “The only reason this came so early is because Ming was having trouble getting himself across and needed a relaunch”
That’s wrong, I’m afraid. The Tax Commission was set up under Kennedy and was always scheduled to report in July. ‘Leaking’ some of the headlines is just good news management (particularly when it exposes the weakness of the Tory position on tax).
114. No, Anna, I don’t care if he appeared naked (it’s you tories who are usually concerned about those things
). I would attack him as I would do with any other politicians.
Publicity….blah, there’s no evidence “celebrity” candidates polls better than others…in 1992 Glenda got more or less the same swing of Barbara Roche in next door seat…. look at what Jordan polled in 2001 or Vanessa Redgrave in 1979.
Andrea The 130 or so priority seats have to choose from the ‘A’ list so of course it’s 2 out of 2! The only get out for the Associations is for them to choose ‘exceptionally qualified’ local candidates, a high hurdle. The real question is whether half the candidates in these seats end up being women with another chunk coming from the ethnic minorities or whether the white males on the list get most of the seats. DC will be pleased with the selection of a woman for the Derbyshire seat.
Does anyone else think Vince Cable looks just like Mr Burns?
13 - It is still naive to believe that the greater time to rip ot apart won’t have an effect, whether it was Kennedy who made the decision or Campbell.
Who said Osborne anyway? It’s possible they might suddenly find space for tax cuts close to an election (which would be well timed, they can say that it is based on the economy as it stands not a prediction) but surely an incoming labour chancellor would be very happy to put up green taxes and cut income taxes, selling it by saying that the lib dems can’t form a government so you may as well vote labour.
If some lib dems didn’t have this colour blindness where they don’t perceive the colour red maybe there would be greater tactical effectiveness.
Anyone who is looking for holes in Cameron needs look no further than todays question time. Watching the two leaders together is to remind yourself that Blair can still be a class act when he chooses to be and also that Cameron is not. Specifically Cameron is not good at thinking on his feet which is a serious disadvantage
117. Blue Moon, there’re a couple of seats (like Lewes and Oxford West) where they got just a couple of applications from A Listers, so local candidates have more chances there.
120 - Roger - I thought Blair looked like he was going to burst a blood vessel! Cameron seemed to be enjoying himself.
Ming didnt bomb but neither did he look comfortable.
120 While it’s true Blair won PMQs today in the sense of who can shout loudest and be most shameless in perverting the truth, I really think he is going mad. He seems to think that if you call for longer sentences for paedophiles then you’re a hypocrite if you think that 90 days detention was wrong. I would have thought the recent bungled raid and arrests shows the wisdom of limiting the period for detention without trial.
Our Viscount on PMQ’s ….. What a performance .. What a star .. What a moustache !!!
78:
13 Rik - if he is NOT in favour of ‘building on open spaces’, what is he in favour of building on? All homes, as far as I am aware, are built on open spaces.
This most certainly isn’t true - 100% of new homes in my town Poole last year were built on “brownfield land” - that is the Governemnts definition of previously developed land - many were built on the site of a former power station , infills , knockdowns of existing houses , old factory sites etc
Definitely not on “open spces”
Oh Dear, I almost can’t see the MP because of Kali Mountford hairstyle……
119 - The point about launching the tax policy now, this early in the process is the need for the LibDems to arrest the image of themselves as tax & spend before it gets entrenched during this Parliament. Just as Cameron has had to move early to shed the ‘nasty party’ image - so the LDs have had to move early as well.
The difference between the Tories & LibDems is that in order to gain the kind of media attention they need to change perceptions they have to be more detailed than the Tories do. It’s just a hard truth that Osbourne’s pronouncements on tax are noticed more rthan Cable’s or Campbell’s, which means they need to flesh them out to make their point.
Basically, its different horses for different courses.
What is interesting about PMQs is how easily Cameron gets under Tony’s skin. Blair looks almost apoplectic with rage at the presumption of this kid opposite him.
If it is a requirement of being “prime ministerial” to stay calm under pressure, I would suggest that PMQs, week after week, show Cameron has it and Blair is losing it.
128. Baskerville, when my mother saw DC at Question Time, she asked why he needed to shout and that he looked crazy. But it was in his first outings at PMQs.
125 - so they didn’t flatten the former powerstation, existing houses etc first then, creating ‘open spaces’?
129. no, QT, but PMQs
128 Baskerville. A stunning win for Our Viscount at PMQs cannot be denied. The return of brylcream and waxoyl as Lib Dem policy is long overdue. Edinburgh tayloring at its finest, Thurso logic is supreme !!
129. Andrea, when you come to London, do take the time to attend PMQs if you can. The noise is quite incredible and does not come across properly on TV. As a result, the leader of the opposition, in particular, has to shout to be heard. Do you remember DC’s first PMQs? “The government chief whip is shouting like a child!”
It’s a peculiarity of the House of Commons that your supporters are behind you - invisible - and you have to present to opponents who are howling and pulling faces, etc. but a few yards away.
126 - Andrea yesterday you called her Kyle Mountford - I was expecting some amazing revelations about him/her in the paper today but nothing!!!!!!
127 - I can understand that point but three or four years out? To switch so drasticaly in one go also risks alienating those voters (very much in evidence on blogs responding to the switch) who voted lib dem *because* of the tax policies. As I’ve said earlier these voters drifting to greens,labour et al are those who will put those lib dem MPs at risk with either tory or labour challengers.
It’s been too quick (it was a flip flop par excellence) for such a drastic change, done overtime it could have taken voters with it. Anyway, it’s too late now, it has to be sold as a measure to appeal to these voters in some sort of way.
132. I have to hand it to the Viscount. Best moustache in a parliamentary democracy. Finest speaking voice in a LibDem. Longest MP title. Three Commons Oscars in one go.
Cameron has been the most successful Tory Leader since Labour were in opposition.
And Labour are terrified of him. They are wetting themselves. Why else would they spend so much time and money attacking him?
All this stuff about policy is nonsense. Of course he is going to take time to formulate policy, but we can see the direction he is heading.
He’s not like Ming Campbell, making up policy on a fag packet to bolster his position, U turning on one of the few things that made the Lib Dem party distinctive.
“As a result, the leader of the opposition, in particular, has to shout to be heard…”
Ah! That explains it! And there I was thinking it was because he was rubbish