Which leader should be most worried about Bromley?
June 15th, 2006-
Tony Blair - will beating UKIP for 3rd place blunt the Brown attack dogs?
We saw after the May locals how the impatient Brownites were ready to pile in to challenge Tony’s leadership after Labour’s disappointing results. If Bromley goes badly two weeks today will they be ready to pounce again?
Aftter May 4th there appeared to be a concerted campaign to raise the temperature - but with no clear end game strategy. Maybe there might be something different this time because it’s almost a certainty that Labour’s share is going to be below the 22% of 2005. The question is how low it can go to be seen to be a disaster?
A real threat to a Labour 3rd place could be UKIP where a member of the party leader leadership, Nigel Farage, is the candidate. Labour always finds it difficult getting its vote out when as far as supporters are concerned the result doesn’t matter. Keeping the vote share in double figures might be a challenge.
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Ming Campbell - is 30% plus required to ease Lib Dem jitters?
With reports that both Labour and Tory MPs have been told to keep quiet while Ming asks his questions at PMQs it’s not been a good week for the 65-year old new leader. According to the BBC’s Nick Robinson both big parties think the Lib Dems as a force is diminished while Ming remains in the job so they are doing their best to keep him there. Maybe the same “boost Ming” strategy by Labour and the Tories will be part of the Bromley aftermath?
In “normal” times coming from third place with a 20% share to take the seat would not be beyond the reach of the acknowledged by-election kings. That now seems too big a challenge and chalking up, say, a vote share of 30% or more would be a good answer to Ming’s critics.
After the amazing Lib Dem victory in Dunfermline held during very tough times for the party nothing can be regarded as impossible - but a good second place is, surely, the most they can hope for?
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David Cameron - can he end the Tory by-election nightmare?
In many ways Cameron has been very lucky that the party’s first by-election defence for six years and the first on his watch is in a seat where the Tories did so well at the General Election with the Lib Dems in third place. For the party has a dreadful record at by-elections whether defending seats or trying to win them. The term Tory by-election success is an oxymoron.
Even in the 1997 Labour landslide the former MP, the late Eric Forth chalked up 46% and the expectation must be that they will do better in vote share terms than last May’s 51%. But the Cameron leadership is all about momentum and a result much better than that is surely needed. Certainly if the polls are right then 55% plus should not be beyond them.
After a difficult candidate selection that looked like a snub for the new leader the Tories can take nothing for granted. Cameron needs a really good result here and is probably the leader who should be most worred. For his party will go with his “change agenda” just as long as he looks like a winner. If that changes then he could have problems.
By election betting. Latest prices are CON 0.08/1: LD 8.2/1: LAB 99/1
Mike Smithson
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Bromley is really a free hit for both the Libs and UKIP. Neither expected to win, so a good showing is a bonus.
Tories are on a hiding to nothing - anything below 55% would be going backwards, whereas a good win (60% plus) would just be ‘as expected’.
If the Tories are on a hiding to nothing, Labour are just due for a hiding. They’ve shown before that they can gloss over such derisory result - but coming 4th behind UKIP must be their real nightmare.
Labour are as relevant here as the Tories were in Dunfermline and Hartlepool: anything bad that happens to them will be strictly for the comedy value. For the Tories, this is a test of whether Cameron is their Blair or their Kinnock - is he just steadying the ship or is he winning over new voters? He ought to be thinking about taking votes from both Labour and the Lib Dems while accepting that some will leech off to UKIP - his challenge is to minimise the latter while containing the fact that the Lib Dem vote has probably been artificially depressed in the past because of concentrating on Orpington. An interesting set of challenges for him! Ming just needs to point the by-election team at the constituency and hope - pretty much anything barring a failure to overtake Labour looks good. UKIP is a real wild card - if Farage gets some momentum he could score in bucketloads. Equally he could just potter along picking up a few disaffected Tories. It’s difficult to imagine him flopping completely.
One thing’s for sure - Cameron could do without local press coverage like the current stories of him being heckled when he visited the constituency. The actual incidents aren’t so bad, it’s the overall impression the coverage gives that is damaging, reducing his ability to argue his party has changed.
Boosting Ming sounds like a stupid strategy, whoever came up with it.
My take is as follows:
Tories:
>65% Good
50-65% Par for the course, a fair result
30% Good
20-30% Reasonable
25% or 2nd place Good
15-25% Reasonable
My post got mangled somehow. That should have read:
Con:
Greater than 65% - Good
50-65% - Reasonable
Less than 50% - Poor (backtracking on GE result)
LD:
Greater than 30% - Good
20-30% - Reasonable
Less than 20% or behind Labour - Poor
Lab:
Greater than 25% - Good
15-25% - Reasonable
Less than 15% - Poor
Random @ 2
Re Cameron’s hostile reception, were you referring to this:
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/news/default.asp?article_id=26896&startrecord=-1. ?
Or did you mean this: http://snipurl.com/rsij ??
With reports that both Labour and Tory MPs have been told to keep quiet while Ming asks his questions at PMQs it’s not been a good week for the 65-year old new leader.
I don’t buy that for a moment, Mike - looks like classic spin from the Tory and Labour camps to detract from the fact that Ming’s recent PMQs performances, plus his green tax switch announcement last week, have shown the Lib Dem leader is getting well into the swing of things.
No surprise that Nick Robinson fell for it. Bit more surprised you have.
1 - agree with your figures, Spartacus.
Tories may say a win is a win, and any %age increase at all will be an achievment.
But if you look at the swings Labour achieved under Blair, when they were in opposition, you would expect the Tories to go up by at least 5%; and they should be hoping for more (60%+) if the Cameron bounce really is happening.
re Joe 8. After Robinson made this claim yesterday I looked back at recent PMQs and there is absolutely no doubt that this week and last week Ming was able to make his points and put his questions to a relatively silent house. Check on earlier PMQs and it is totally different - the usual high noise level.
Re 6 and 7 - it’s interesting how badly Cameron has gone down on the campaign trail in Bromley. And his first outing in Dunfermline wasn’t a brilliant success either
Given his weakness in such situations, perhaps the jet trip to a glacier was a work of genius - no chance of meeting an inconvenient member of the British voting public out there!
But will he able to stay away from such encounters often enough in the future - or will he start getting significantly better at handling them?
What about Blaenau Gwent????
Great article Mike, although I agree that Labour/Tory comments about Ming show that they are taking his leadership seriously after recent improvements.
With Bromley, UKIP were the only party I saw with giant posters in the town centre. The strategy seemed to be ‘you hate immigrants, so do we, you hate Europe, so do we.’ I can see Tory and Labour voters switching over this, but not LDs. I hope it doesn’t come down to UKIP, but I think that a strong second for the LDs is not unlikely.
Mike
Good take on the story but the article has one error - Farage is NOT UKIP party leader - that dubious honour falls to Roger Knapman!
6. Cameron’s stance in that first photo seems symbolic of his defensiveness. A sort of ‘you don’t enter into my carefully-groomed world’ stance.
10 - a silence that was of course appropriate to the fact that on both occasions, Ming started by paying tribute to British forces - Tories and Labour knew they couldn’t hiss, cat-call and otherwise behave as they would aged 4 in a noisy playground.
It doesn’t alter the fact that you only have to watch Ming’s last two performances (in particular) to see someone much more comfortable in his own skin.
As tpkfar says at 13 - the fact that there’s anonymous briefing against Ming from other parties shows they are now taking his leadership seriously.
6 and 7 - was that “Mad Old Woman” from Vote 2005?
The best guide to the result of this election is surely Baxter. His latest forecast has the Conservative Party led by David Cameron as the largest party, just 19 seats short of a majority. The prediction for Bromley and Chislehust is
Bromley and Chislehurst
Region: South London
CON 55.33%
LAB 19.91%
LIB 15.84%
OTH 8.92%
CON Pred Maj 35.43%
Others will probably do better than this. As long as the Conservatives get 55% (and I don´t think there is any doubt we will) we are headed back for government.
Re 18 Surely the most accurate indicator for the Byelection in Bromley are last months local election results i.e real votes in real ballot boxes.
[18] But if you get 54.99% you are all going to take to drink and wind the Party up (not necessarily in that order), I suppose?
[18] If by-election successes led inevitably to general election wins, then Rosie Barnes would be Foreign Secretary right now…
Just on a factual point: Labour has not categorically *not* asked its MPs not to heckle Ming or give him an easy ride. I don’t know about the Tories.
In general, the heckling is opportunist stuff when one of the leaders falters in some way. If the question goes smoothly, it’s rare to get more than the odd comment called across the floor. Things are pretty quiet in Westminster at the moment anyway - a 1-line whip yesterday and another next week, and no controversial legislation going through. Possibly the World Cup is relevant - most MPs are as addicted as anyone else. I remember in the last Cup when an England match went into extra time, a message went up to Dawn Primarolo to spin out her final speech in a debate. She spoke with i n c r e d i b l e slowness, to wild hilarity from the few MPs present, who knew she was literally boring for England.
By the way, SP, belated condolences about your cat - what a horrible thing to happen. I meant to say so on the thread where you mentioned it but got side-stracked.
Re 18 & 19 Surely history tells us that previous (full) election are only a very rough guide to a by election so I wouldn’t consider Baxter or the recent locals as a good guide usually. Why do I think this:
a) turnout
b) let’s punish a government
c) higher election expenses limit
d) local campaigns of a different order of magnitude to when fought in a full election (particularly if the seat is not marginal)
e) no national coverage that existeds during a national election to dilute local campaign efforts
f) impact of high profile candidates (eg Fararge who would be ignored in a national campaign)
g) LD by election team (if they are challengers)
A number of these are overlaping reasons eg the LD by election team depends a great deal on many of the other reasons to build their succesful campaigns.
Having said all of that and having had no personal feedback from the campaign you do get the impression that anything special is happening, so maybe it wouldn’t be too different to Local/GE results. I base that on only 2 sources of information a) Tories who have visited Bromley seem upbeat on this site (assuming this isn’t spin) and I’m not seeing lots of requests for help, its neck and neck, etc from the LDs.
23 Sorry the rather important ‘not’ was missing from ‘you do NOT get the impression that anything special is happening…’
Bromley. If Conservatives like me are cautious it is surely because we have had nigh on 20 years of doing worse than we expected in countless by elections like this one.
I hope and believe that we will maintain or increase our 2005 vote share but Conservatives should never under-estimate the ffectiveness of the Lib Dems on the ground and Bromley will be no exception.
One reason the Lib Dems kept getting surprise good by elections is that they can be very sneaky (but effective) in their local campaigning doing a lot of work below the radar.
When I was a Chairman, every time I heard canvassing teams say ‘the Lib Dems are very quiet in my ward’ I used to brace myself for a bad result, come the count.
“When I was a Chairman, every time I heard canvassing teams say ‘the Lib Dems are very quiet in my ward’ I used to brace myself for a bad result, come the count.”
That was exactly what I thought about the Tories when I was Chairman (and still do).
But your caution on Bromley seems a minority taste - most of your colleagues seem to think you will be weighing the votes (although John O also seems cautious).
23/25 kjh/Marcus. As yet I’m not hearing anything other than this will be a comfortable Con Hold with the Lib Dems in a solid second place, but some distance adrift of the Tories.
Still some time for a few heart flutters, but Dr Jack doesn’t diagnose any presently.
25/26. So I suppose Labour should win Bromley.
Logically perhaps you should :LOL:
I certainly don´t subscribe to the “Labour will get 5%” theory.
25 & 26 agree with Peter in particular the ‘below the radar’ work. Maye it is just paranoia in all of us regardless of who we support, but I have always thought one of the real strengths of the Tories campaigning has been the invisible campaigning and one of the strengths of the LD campaigning to be the highly visible local campaigns.
Every chance of LD’s coming third I think; people need a good reason not to vote tory in Bromley and the only thing I can see is some people being motivated to vote UKIP.
The Labour voters who can be bothered to vote at all will surely support their party as Hazel Blears has now given them 40 reasons to support the party!
The Polictics Vs The News on BBC tuesday night: Jeremy Paxman, Michael Burk, Kate Adie, Nick Robinson and Bridget Kendall against Tim Yeo, Diane Abbott, Stephen Pound and Mark Oaten
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctwo/listings/programmes.shtml?day=tuesday&service_id=4224&filename=20060620/20060620_2200_4224_21575_30
DEFECTION ALERT!
Oh dear, looks like DC continues to plummet whilst Sir Ming straddles the political scene…
“THE chairman of North Somerset Council has switched from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives.
Cllr Roz Willis stunned the ruling Lib Dems on Monday when she announced she would ‘cross the floor’ to become a Tory. Nailsea councillor Bob Coleman has also switched from being an independent to join the Tories so the Conservatives now have a 25-23 seat majority over their rivals.
In a letter to the council’s chief executive, Graham Turner, Cllr Willis wrote: “I can no longer work with the Liberal Democrat group. Both nationally and locally, I do not trust that decisions are being made with due process of care and have great concerns about the direction being followed.”
Cllr Willis represents the Milton and Old Worle ward.”
More on ConservativeHome
[32] I can imagine the questions:
Which Liberal Democrat MP was forced to resign from their front bench position following an affair with a rent boy?
What is the meaning of copraphilia?
etc. etc. etc.
33 - truly the Lib Dems will be shaken to their foundations by the loss of this political giant.
32, 34. I watched it on the night, Oaten answered one question and got laughed at by the audience and shut up for the rest of the show. In fact all the politicians were shown up as being superficial and, frankly, dumb compared to the journo’s.
Why do these people agree to go on?
36. Did Diane Abbott spend the whole night looking around with a clueless look and making strange facial expressions?
Everytime I see her, she acts in that way!
26 - Peter, the older the hands, the greater the caution
“Liberal Democrat chiefs reacted angrily to the announcement, saying it is connected to their policy of slashing £80,000 from the chairman’s budget and called for her resignation.
The cutbacks have seen the chairman’s chauffeur-driven limousine and personal assistant chopped.”
Apparently if she jons the Tories she can retain her shoe-chauffeur…
36 - Why do these people agree to go on?
I think you are probably setting yourself up for a disappointment if you expect politicians to be modest about their abilities
39. do party chairmen have limousines?!
It’s a better job than thought!
40. Ouch!
41 - I think “council chairman” is their equivalent of a mayor. So they have some of these things for ceremonial occasions.
38 very good…
43. Ah, ok.
27 Jack W Thank you.
What’s your source or is this confidential. As a newish poster am I showing my lack of knowledge of more regular posters like yourself and should I know better than to ask or should I already know?
33 - It sounds like the LD’s need to sort things out in Weston. It was the one parliamentary seat that went down last year that should definitely NOT have been lost.
I think that Dunfermline may be instructive. A Labour disaster, Tories and SNP did not turn up. GB lives in the constituency - surely the governmanet should have fallen or at least the Chancellor resigned.
Not actually sure anything actually happened as a result of the byelection, or have I missed something.
48. SNP held its vote, so not sure what do you mean with “SNP did not turn up”.
Gordon lives there and so what? Resigning? yes, in your dreams.
Better ask to your useless leader to resign….the Green’s leader is more impressive than him and they don’t even have a leader!
43 - I was puzzled by the “Chairman” designation and visited the Council site. I had assumed that North Somerset was a Borough Council and thus would have had a Mayor…but in fact, it’s a unitary authority and thus, like County Councils, has a Chairman as its ceremonial head. She’ll have a nice chain of office but not the lovely red and fluffy and frilly outfit that is the sartorial joy of the Mayoralty.
‘…both big parties think the Lib Dems as a force is diminished while Ming remains in the job so they are doing their best to keep him there…’
Probably just a load of Tory and Labour bunk reminiscent of when Alistair Campbell used to say he was actively trying to keep William Hague as Tory leader. Nonetheless, while Ming’s leadership has been mostly superb so far, I have been disappointed with his choice of subject at the last couple of PMQs: opportunistic Bush bashing last week and some luddite criticism of nuclear energy yesterday. Ming’s advisors on PMQs have, for all sort of reasons, been dire from the start, and I wish he’d sack them.
Just out of interest I see the governments law and order woes are carrying on with the sentencing row. Dr John “Boots” Reid seemed to be attacking the judiciary (surely the sort of thing a totalitarian would do) when Cheerful Charlie Lord Falconer defends them.
Do voters know who is to blame? (A bizarre combination of things including sentencing guidlines which have to be followed too closely and actually saying what the sentence means in real terms rather than the headline figure 18 years in this case)
And if they do know who to blame, how does it affect voters?
On another note this government passes more criminal justice acts in one year then were passed in the last 50. Is that good government, or rather do the people know?
46 khj - Ah, Jacks sources (sauces?) that is a question that has baffled archeologists looking at this site.
Some say his utterings rival the Sybils for their obfuscation and there is a theory that his predictions become more extreme the later the later the hour - however one was once right - and he is now entitled to the moniker “Infallible Jack” though his usual modesty prevents him from using it too often.
35 - We can only imagine the delight and predictions of Cameron being toppled if a similar Tory Councillor had gone the other way…
50 - I think it’s a shame that unitaries can’t have (titular) mayors, though of course it would be a bit odd to speak of the mayor of a county.
54 - Hmmm, I don’t think I’ve ever made anything much of local defections in either direction. You often find they have much more to do with personalities than any grand political narrative.
27/46 Sorry my last post was gibberish. I’ll try again.
Jack, I seem to recall from previous posts you have made that you have the inside track on certain stuff. My apologies if I should already know this or if I shouldn’t ask but can you elucidate.
Thanks.
46. khj. I think he has a mixed record. He got Dunfermline a bit wrong, but his sources were right about Moray.
His sources were wrong about the education rebels (but Hilary the useless was still in charge….so Jack is probably innocent) and he got Ming winning right (but he overstated his win margin).
But we all love Jack in the end.
46 kjh. No problems. A number of the posters have sources close to the parties and in the media. By chance mine are more in the Lib Dem and Labour parties, although I do have a few choice Conservatives to draw on.
Posting under a nom de PB also helps as the info I get from time to time isn’t traceable. Having said that I’m more selective about betting sensitive info that I make public and I don’t release as much info as I used to. However I do try and help fellow punters if I reasonably can.
The main difficulty is sifting the spin, the ramping and the bullsh*t. Indeed the best betting strategy at times is to disregard everything after good morning !
58 - Even Marcus in his own way…
33: So some old timers from the Lib Dem fringe are peeling off to the woolly, confused and intellectually incoherent Cameron’s Tories. I think that speaks volumes about who’s seized the political initiative in this country.
Andrea (49) - all I was saying was byelections dont seem to matter.
Jack (57) - stop posting as kjh.
From the replies my post was obviously not such gibberish after all (or more likely you all also have scrambled brains) and you are disillusioning me about Jack as well.
My problem on Bromley (until I visit next week) is this site is about my only source of information and it isn’t cheering me up.
62. Icarus, you attacked Gordon (it’s fashionable to do it here…more or less for everything that goes wrong) and well, I was even nice….I could have mentioned Jody Dunn instead of Ming
Can we please stop talking about loving each other “in the end” - children can (in theory) access this site
63.”From the replies my post was obviously not such gibberish after all (or more likely you all also have scrambled brains) ”
it’s that I understand gibberish posts better…probably because they look like mine!
“and you are disillusioning me about Jack as well.”
why?!
Just back from sunny Tirana.
Bromley [yawn] I can not help thinking that Mike is making mischief against Ming, because he knows that the chances of the Lib Dems doing well are mediocre at best.
I do not think that Bromley and Dunfermline are comparable in any way. The political environment in Scotland is just too different. The Tories are nowhere and Labour are growing in unpopularity, so the Lib Dems are in a stronger position.
In Bromley, the Tories are in with the bricks, so the anti Labour vote is going to go to them. The Lib Dems were third and UKIP are putting up a good candidate, so the protest vote really is not coming naturally the Lib Dem’s way. If the Lib Dems are second that is a good result, but I expect that they will be third and don’ t exclude a weaker result.
And I don’t think it matters to anyone. The short term trend is pro Cameron- the back lash will come, but not yet. Ming is doing the right thing- sorting out the internal cack and giving the party substance. but it is a longer game than the policy lite approach of the Tories, but “having principles” may be becoming more important. As Cameron looks more like Blair, then he too gets caught in the general backlash against spin and hype. Nevertheless it will not happen while voters are watching the footie or going on holiday. 6-9 months, things may well look quite different and his effortless ascendency really has to toil. Rawnsley may be the first breath of the mood music of the next year.
65. but IA, isn’t it true?! In the end….
58 Andrea. Damned with faint praise by the “uninformed”
I think you’ll find in the GE I got all the target seats correct - Kettering including maj and St Albans, Norfolk North and Cambridge.
Dunfermline I count as a hit too, even if the wally at the count couldn’t remember to recharge his phone !!!
More recently I called the Forest Gate shambles on the Saturday after the event. However, I’m in the hands of my informants and like a lot of things in life the odd cock up occurs.
61 - Oh so loud, so early. Being woolly and incoherent has much to commend itself albeit usually towards the end of the perfect day
Morning all :). If we can cut through the hyperbole, the partisan rantings, the jibes and the “canvass returns”, this site would be a lot less fun than it is now
I lived in Bromley for many years. The “old” Chislehurst constituency, when held by Roger Sims, was always a Tory fortress. Bickley, Petts Wood, Chislehurst and Sundridge were always very strong for the Tories. Mottingham was a Labour stronghold and until boundary changes in 2002 put a lump of Tory Chislehurst into the mix, always returned Labour Councillors. It may be like St Helier in Sutton in that housing changes are making it “less” Labour. The parts of the new constituency such as central Bromley, which were added from the old Ravensbourne Constituency are probably the best LD areas.
I think that the circumstances of this by-election are much better for the LDs than had a similar contest been held in 1995 or 1996. A contest in which the Tories were defending the record of a unpopular Government would have been much better for Labour and worse for the Tories and LDs. It’s entirely possible that Labour would have squeezed out the LD vote and challenged the Tories. I believe back in 1966 for example Labour got quite close in Chislehurst.
In 1997, Eric Forth got 46% of the vote. While the Tory performance in Romsey suggested the 1997 effort could be pushed lower under the right circumstances. it’s hard to see those in place now.
The Tory core vote of 20,000 or so could come out in B&C and the party could poll 70% of the vote and claim a great victory but if turnout is poor, that will take the edge off it. LDs like me will simply claim that the Tories can get the core vote out but aren’t making progress in persuading voters to switch. A big win (60%+) AND a big turnout (60%+) is the dream scenario for Cameron. A big win on a small turnout means little with regard to votes in key marginals in a GE some three years or so away.
The nightmare for Cameron is of course defeat (improbable) or a sharply reduced majority on a high turnout. Reduced majority and low turnout could be blamed on apathy, the World Cup etc.
We’re still two weeks away - as I’ve said before, there are “fools, damn fools and people who believe canvass returns” so we can safely disregard a lot of the partisan claims and ramping at this time. My view is that the Conservatives will hold the seat with an increased share of the vote but with a reduced majority on a low turnout. The LDs should come second but won’t get very close, Labour will be third and UKIP will be a respectable fourth.
Vote shares (for fun) - Con 60%, LD 25%. Lab 9%, UKIP 6% on a turnout of around 50%.
70: Well, the Tory Party is certainly approaching its midnight.
67: ‘6-9 months, things may well look quite different and his effortless ascendency really has to toil.’
Agreed. I’ve also thought this should be about the time that Ming announces his own ‘Clause IV moment’. I’m not sure what it will be but sincerely hope we will finally ditch our antediluvian Jenkinsite fawning over the EU and advocate withdrawal. That wouldn’t just shoot the Tory fox; it would blow it to smithereens.
269. My dear Jack, I’ve to admit I haven’t noticed you during the GE!!!!!
Dunfermline….it counts just what it was said before the count started. At the count I could hear everything from Sky News!
(check your email box)
re Bromley - As I think there are very few who expect a Tory defeat, the betting is a little uninteresting… Any chance of people emailing Betfair and asking for a winner %age of the vote type market. Could make it all a bit more interesting - I suggest bands of < 50%, 50%-55%, 55%-60%, 60%-65%, > 65%
Stodge
Why do you have Labour down in single figures? I haven´t heard anything to suggest this.
73 Andrea. Duly checked. Nought found !
72 - Rarely do I retract but an exception has to be made in your case. Stand and vocally fight your corner: the LibDems truly need such sturdy yeomen of England - you have to be English - as yourself.
15 “Cameron’s stance in that first photo seems symbolic of his defensiveness. A sort of ‘you don’t enter into my carefully-groomed world’ stance. ”
Also note Bob Neill smiling broadly! (perhaps at his leader’s discomfort or in embarrassment?)
http://paulwalter.blogspot.com
76. Jack, check again…I didn’t send it yet when I posted here…..I haven’t thought you were so fast!
71.”Vote shares (for fun) - Con 60%, LD 25%. Lab 9%, UKIP 6% on a turnout of around 50%. ”
stodge, I think it’s improbable that the 7 candidates will poll all 0%. I would leave a couple of points for the others too!
Andrea - you are being a bit picky this morning!
I think 55% to 60% would be the sort of result which would show the Tories are back on track to power…I think posters need to cast their minds back to 1992 when under Major, the Tories piled up masses of votes in Bromley and across similar seats/areas like this in London and the South East. - To be unable to get that now does not elude much confidence that they can win a majority at any future general election, it may seem like a high bar for the Tories but this is the percentage they should get, what the other parties get is unimportant, because this is, after all, a by election.
As for the Lib Dems and Ming…I think whatever Labour and Tory MPs do in the House of Commons isn’t too much of a concern, I think that whenever a general election is held, they will hold the majority of their seats and are likely to gain at least half a dozen from Labour in the current climate if not more. I don’t know why so many Tories are so hostile to Lib Dems in any case, I can’t see a huge gulf between the two under Ming. Oh, apart from Ming promising tax cuts for most people (in income tax)…which I thought was a Tory policy or used to be…?
79 Andrea. Some of us old stagers can be very quick too ! …. just ask John O.
E-mail received. No problems. I always blame the staff !
Re: 75 & 80: These are for fun, not a serious prediction. I do think the Labour vote will struggle here not as a result of a switch to either LD or Tory but through apathy.
I have no sense of how much “effort” Labour are putting in to the area and I can never remember which (if either) of the Cray Valley wards is in the Constituency. I always knew them as St Paul’s Cray and St Mary Cray. The former was very Labour but I think the LDs took a seat in 1998, the latter was Labour but the LDs won it in 1994.
Labour lost seats in (I think) Cray Valley East (including veteran Labour Councillor John Holbrook) to the Tories in May but the LDs retained all three of their Cray Valley seats.
81. Icarus. I’m in good humor!
But I just think that the Greens will poll more than o% in Bromley. I swear it’s not ramping!
71. stodge, Labour won Chislehurst in 1966. The constituency then included only around a quarter of the current Bromley and Chislehurst (Mottingham and Chislehurst wards). The rest was made up of St Paul’s Cray, Foots Cray and most of Sidcup.
The one-term Labour MP, Alastair MacDonald stood at every subsequent general election until 1983 with the slogan ‘Get Mac Back’, despite boundary changes and the rightwards drift in this part of London lessening his chances all the while.
66 ‘why’ because after your post I’m now not so sure Jack is perfect!!!
62 I can’t think why you should think I’m Jack.
72. That would have me voting LibDem.
88: See, one new voter already. If they’re reading this, I hope the leadership is taking note
87 kjh. I strive for perfection ….. and only failed with Icarus !!
In all seriousness - I think the Lib Dems would do well to articulate clearly ‘renewal of the EU’ rather than just ‘whisper it quietly, but yes, we are pro-EU’.
84. Stodge, Cray Valley East is LD. Cray Valley West still have a Labour survivors, but the tories got the other 2 seats this time.
And Cray Valley wards are in Orpington constituency.
87. kjh, but perferct people are irritating, aren’t they?
Failure to improve on the General Election will be a disappointment for the Tories. Cameron’s whole strategy is to continually demonstrate forward momentum. Failure to do so in a natural Tory area like Bromley will dent that. Cameron therefore has most to lose.
Failure to get a reasonable second will be a disappointment for the Lib Dems. They can’t expect to get the sort of swing they got in Dunfermline - that was a Government held seat - but a combination of their by-election skills, a squeeze on Labour and the fact that Bromley GE campaigning has been weak in the past should enable them to get up towards the 30% mark.
I guess Labour will be disappointed if they are overtaken by UKIP and UKIP will be disappointed if they aren’t!
91: Europhilia has been an albatross around our collective neck for years. As you rightly say, it’s reached the absurd stage where we’re now too embarrassed to mention it, and most Lib Dems don’t agree with it now anyway. A hard-line anti-EU approach would allow us to clean up in places like Cornwall, while causing no problems anywhere else.
93 ‘perferct’: Fraudian or deliberate?
Some pathetically obvious spinning so far today, I hope the B&C by election is over quickly if it’s going to continue like this.
It’s also notable how apparently party activists think that slagging off the other parties is a good idea. It may make you feel very warm inside but it turns off voters and just brings the whole political field into further disrepute. Anyone care to post information on what *they* would do in these constituencies rather than what the others would/wouldnt?
Frankly Blaenau Gwent looks a lot more interesting and potentially an upset to me, can we have more info on that or have the tory and lib dem activists here got no ears on the ground? As you’re not going to win there you could even feed us some nice canvassing returns if you wanted.
95 etc. Is it just me, or do other people sense a return of the Proffesor in a different coloured suit?
98. Not until you mentioned it, but I do now…
Dear Nick Palmer MP
Thank you very much, very kind of you.
on the topic of Bromley personally I’m hoping for a tory % of 55% anything over 25-30% for the Libs is good and 30+ is excellent.
Re: 92 - Thank you, Andrea. I left Bromley in the mid-90s so I wasn’t up-to-date with the new boundaries.
Re: 91 & 95: I’ve always supported the line that the EU is in need of root-and-branch reform involving the repatriation of powers (where appropraite) not only to national Governments but to regional and even local levels too. It shouldn’t however be forgotten that areas like Cornwall have done well out of EU membership through Objective One funding which has helped on a number of major infrastructure projects. Unfortunately, that is swamped by the biased reporting of an Atlanticist media who would much prefer us to be in NAFTA than the EU. I suspect some of those close to Cameron support this as well.
95 - I’m one of thsoe lib dems who isn’t a euro-fan but to make such a switch would alienate too many voters (the tax changes are running the risk of doing the same thing). To change so quickly is disastrous, you have to take a couple of years at least to gradually move from one position to another to be credible.
101.”Thank you, Andrea. I left Bromley in the mid-90s so I wasn’t up-to-date with the new boundaries.”
I usually look at boundaries at the DfES site:
http://www.dfes.gov.uk/inyourarea/leas/lea_305.shtml
Alan Duncan is the new shadow minister for Newcastle:
http://www.yorkshiretoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=55&ArticleID=1565721
98: Sadly, if I possessed the Professor’s genius for spoofery I’d either get a job as a satirist or be employed as a new Labour press officer. I’m just a passionate liberal who can see enormous opportunities for the Liberal Democrats - opportunities which thankfully the leadership also appears to be waking up to.
105 - the leadership is “waking up to” leaving the EU? Comedy genius.
102. I don’t think any change is required - we’re already committed to EU reform and EU engagement - a sensible policy. 0 point in following the Tories down the road of Euro-nuttery, detached from all reality.
107. p.s. to be fair to Hague, I don’t think this is where he is - but it’s where most Tory activists seem to be.
102: To be brutally honest, many people adopted a pro-EU stance a few years back only because they – understandably – didn’t want to be associated with those on the swivel-eyed, xenophobic Tory right. If a respected, principled party like the Lib Dems made the rational case for EU withdrawal, we wouldn’t alienate those people – we’d win them round to our side of the argument.
Liberals are Europhiles because they like and respect others. They want to work with people rather than fight them, realising that together we can do more to help people.
That doesnt, of course, stop us criticising the EU which is dominated far to much by national governments (including ours). It also doesnt stop us wanting decisions that affect people to be taken as near to them as possible rather than centrally dictated as Labour seem to do.
109. Then we’d be neither respected nor principled!
OT. Why was the Daily Politics show using the pre-1801 version of the Union Flag? Is this now BBC policy?
106: Sorry, I was ambiguous. I meant that the leadership is waking up to a range of excellent and radical policies such as tax reduction. I don’t know whether they’ve come round to EU withdrawal just yet, but I live in hope.
107, 110 - agree (though we could do a better job of saying so).
110 & 114 100% agreement from me.
107 - I trust then at the nest election you’ll be denouncing all those ‘euro-nutters’ living in Devon & Cornwall?
Which leader should be most worried?
Cameron, Ming-ing, Bliar in that order.
As said elsewhere - and I’m encouraged that the majority of posters seem to be moving my way - anything less than 60% for the Tories will be a weak performance. 65% will be excellent, and 70%(or near) will convince me they are on course for Downing Street.
For the Libdems, anything less than a 10% increase in their share and a clear second place will be a big disappointment.
For Labour, the result is largely irrelevant, but a drop of less than 10% would be a good result.
Also, for the Tories, they should be looking at a 15% swing from Labour to credibly claim they have government-in-waiting momentum…
It’s obvious that some of the above benchmarks are mutually exclusive, and it really comes down to a straight Con/Libdem fight. The Tories really must either crush Labour or keep the LibDems in their box, preferably both.
111:
‘A man should never be ashamed to own he has been in the wrong, which is but saying, in other words, that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.’
Alexander Pope
There’s nothing at all unprincipled in saying, ‘Sorry, the EU is a failed experiment albeit a well-intentioned idea at the time. Time to move on to the twenty-first century.’ I think that sort of honesty would give us enormous respect with the voters.
113. Well, anything is just about possible, I suppose. Labour used to be the anti_EU party, then the pro-EU party, then the “not sure about the EU” party. The Conservatives were the pro-EU party from Macmillan’s time all the way up to Thatcher, then became the EU-sceptic party.
Only the liberals seem to have been pretty consistently pro-europe. I sense that the LibDems have the most pragmatic and realistic view of Europe at the moment. They (rightly in my view) support the concept of working together in a supranational organisation for the common good of all, but they realise that the EU in its current form has too many serious shortcomings.
If the idiots had not mucked up the EU constitution, we might have gotten somewhere with this. As it is, I don’t blame the French and Dutch for rejecting it. This was NOT an anti-Europe vote in those countries, though, despite what the British press tried to spin about it.
110: ‘Liberals are Europhiles because they like and respect others. They want to work with people rather than fight them, realising that together we can do more to help people.’
Well, I like and respect a lot of Americans and want to work with them, but that doesn’t mean I want Britain to become the 51st state.
A problem with the EU is that, because parliament has even less influence than the UK parliament (though the decline in turnout for Westminster shows the way things are heading there) the voters dont take their Euro MPs seriously - and they are therefore not very representative. It is a chicken and egg situation - you wouldn’t want to give the current lot of time servers, and worse, any power, but until we do then things wont change.
116 Max ” …. nest election …”
Too much Bill Oddie !?!?
Lt Col Harvey Bluetit - Conservative - 17,345 grubs.
Ms. Andrea Red-Kite - Labour - 14,478 sparrows.
Mrs Sally Orange Robin Breast - Lib Dem - 11,109 worms.
I don´t know what the leadership are waking up to (but I’m pretty sure it isn’t the Arctic Monkeys).
Ming positioned himself as a critical friend of Europe in his speech to the CBI the other week. I think this is about right.
http://www.mingcampbell.org.uk/2006/06/13/micro%e2%80%93management-by-politicians-from-whitehall-is-inefficient-and-ineffective/
“EU and national processes need to be streamlined EU directives are a major source of unwanted complexity in business regulation, especially when translated and gold-plated by UK civil servants.
Europe may be the source of some irritation for business, but the positive effects of the European Union and the single market are substantial.
Enlargement has been a major economic success. Of course, Europe needs to liberalise, and there are sectors like energy and agriculture where the EU remains shockingly protectionist.
I lead a pro-European party. But we are hard-headed about our commitment and voted against the recent budget deal because the Prime Minister failed to deliver on his negotiating objectives: to secure reform.
Market based reform is essential.”
In this, business – as a truly European constituency, has a crucial role to play. “
122.”Ms. Andrea Red-Kite - Labour - 14,478 sparrows.”
I was informed that Ms Red-Kite gender is under investigation by the electoral commission.
Re: 103 - Thanks again, Andrea. Some old friends there. Shortlands used to be in the Beckenham Constituency and is a solidly Tory area. Hayes & Coney Hall used to be in the Ravensbourne Constituency. The old Liberal Party won Hayes on occasions in the 1960s at local level. Coney Hall is part of the old West Wickham South Ward and is where my brother and his family now reside. Fairly Conservative but we made a little headway in the 1980s though I was working more in West Wickham North.
Bromley Common & Keston was also in Ravensbourne. The Allaince won a by-election in 1984 and just missed winning a second seat in 1986 by 10 votes. By 1994, all three seats were LD and it was a safe LD ward though Keston was always solidly Tory. The roads behind the A21 were much better for the LDs as were the Turpington Lane areas. One of the LDs elected in 1998, Alexa Michael, subsequently defected to the Conservatives and in 2002 we lost our other Councillors. Another LD Councillor for the Ward, Paul Booth, was LD candidate for Chislehurst.
I’ve already considered Mottingham. Plaistow & Sundridge was the scene of the famous 1998 election recount. By losing two of the three seats to the LDs, the Tories lost control of Bromley Council. I was at the recount in the Council Chamber on the Friday morning having visited my mother in Bromley Hospital after a late evening the night before at the count in Sutton.
History aside - the reconfiguration makes it even harder for the LDs in my view though work sone now in places like Bromley Common could be useful in the 2010 local elections when of course the Cameron Government’s honeymoon will be over and the Tory seats will be ripe for the taking
124 Andrea. You mean Ms Red-Kite is an Italian migratory interloper of the Vlad variety ??
122
and indeed now uniquely pheasant to Tory posers
A by-election with a predictable result held just before parliament rises for the summer. I suggest that George Galloway will have as much to worry about this result as will any of tthe three listed above. As in absolutely nothing. Likewise for the Welsh one.
No (Orange thinker -120) but trade freely with them and join them in Nato and try to stop them going into daft wars. Nationalism has not had a good track record - Whilst the British Empire was far from perfect it is quite possible that it could have developed the concept of a British master race with the object of turning the whole globe pink!!
Has anyone got any news/views on Blaenau Gwent or is it a sort of political Bermuda triangle?
127 John O.
Indeed …. although a little out of season.
130. Gordon Brown was down there. Trish Law is angry with Rhodi Morgan because he went to the funeral whilst she told him she wasn’t pleased by his presence. The other parties are outraged by the revelation. It has been revealed that Trish Law’s agent has a conviction for fiddling expenses. Labour mayor defected to Law’s camp.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/welsh/hi/newsid_4950000/newsid_4959900/4959990.stm
I think you missed this, Andrea
O/T I shall be in Ceredigion at the Red Kite centre Nant-yr-Arian at the weekend - since 2005 a Lib Dem stronghold.
Reason for going is to see daughter in a race there and appear as a witness in court on Monday. Her boy friend was attacked, verbally and by kicking at the door, shortly after the July London bombs - her boy friend is Spanish, and I would suppose catholic - though I haven’t asked - but he was thought to look like a Muslim.
Isn’t stereotyping wonderful!!
Anyway it has taken almost a year but his attacker is due in court Monday.
133. sorry, Peter, but I’ve still to improve my Welsh.
122 - Maybe a small tipple.
Helps me think more ‘creatively’ which is very important in this profession!
127 - Un-pheasant John O!!!
What’s this business about Conservatives appointing shadow ministers for various cities? Like they can’t cope with the fact that they hold hardly any council seats there, so they’ve got to go central? A shadow ministerial seat should be about policy, surely, not election strategy?
http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/another_country
http://www.yorkshiretoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=55&ArticleID=1565721
134 - sorry to hear that Icarus, I hope the case ends up with the appropriate result. And good luck to Miss Icarus in the race!
137 - perhaps a Shadow Minister of Sound to represent the Elephant & Castle area?
137 - Quite amusing that they will be reporting to the shadow foreign secretary! Is it intended that these shadow ministers will be actual (paid) ministers if the Tories ever get in? Who are they supposed to be shadowing? And they accuse Prescott of having a pointless non-job.
134 Icarus. Some weeks back I was fortunate to see a pair of red kites near Lyddington in Rutland. I understand that several pairs thrive in the nearby Rockingham Forest area.
Good luck with the case.
140. I think it’s just a publicity stunt to show they’re interested in those cities.
Maybe they should not call those appointments “shadow” considering they’re not shadowing anyone.
The Libdems have Lynne Featherstone in charge of London issues, the tories they’ve one for each city now
142 - just calling them “spokesmen” would be quite sensible. In some cases MPs already have this role de facto - e.g. Andrew Mitchell is the only Tory MP in Birmingham, so inevitably the media is going to look to him when someone is required to comment on things there.
143. yes, they should just call them spokesmen. But in some of those cities they don’t have MPs or councillors. So if something happens in Newcastle, the media have to go to Dinky to hear the tory opinions.
142 - It’s probably so they can argue that these cities will have some kind of input in policy decisions at Shadow Cabinet level. Much in the same way the CPC (albeit when in Government) brought in people from Montreal and Vancouver (both big Cities with no Conservative representatio) who had not been elected as Conservative MP’s.
139 - isn’t the founder of the Ministry of Sound on the ‘A’ list? (Fought Tooting last year IIRC.)
142. “The Libdems have Lynne Featherstone in charge of London issues….” Oh my God!
(and Labour have Ken.)
Practically anyone that the Tories suggest would be an improvement.
146 - yes I think you’re right.
Perhaps the Chameleon Crew will appoint a shadow Minister for Maps to show their new shadow city posse where these strange places are that they are meant to be responsible for?
I wonder if pb.con has access to a comprehensive list of Tories who are former senior councillors or MPs in ‘the North’ whose confidence in conservative future chances in their area of origin was so great that they headded off South pdq? Besides Pickles and Horam, I can think of Steen and Burt off the top of my head. Additions anyone?
Nuala’s mate Rifkind fits the bill for North Britain