Guest slot on Northern Ireland politics by Ian Jones
June 17th, 2006-
Could Cameron or Brown have to rely on the DUP?
Does Northern Ireland matter you may ask? Surely it’s just an obscure backwater that elects charming MP’s like Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness? Well maybe, but it’s important in that there are 18 Parliamentary seats in Northern Ireland. At the last election the split was: DUP 9: Sinn Fein 5: SDLP 3: UUP 1.
Sinn Fein does not take its seats, so effectively there are currently 13 MP’s from Northern Ireland at Westminster. When a government has a comfortable majority (e.g. Labour since 1997) Northern Ireland’s MP’s are almost irrelevant. But when a government has a small majority, or no majority, they become more important. So how do the parties line-up?
Democratic Unionist Party. What will Paisley do now he actually has the power to strike a deal with the nationalists? It is easy when you don’t have power to shout about how things should be done. But now he is the leader of the majority community will he deliver a power sharing deal? In my opinion – No. Paisley simply can’t stomach doing a deal with IRA-Sinn Fein as he calls them. So where does the DUP go from here?
Paisley is 80 and will not live for ever (though I am sure he will give it his best shot). The Power struggle in the DUP between the ‘hardliners’ and the ‘even harder hardliners’ once he departs could be bloody. In the short term the DUP seem safe as the largest unionist party, but things could change when Paisley leaves the helm.
Ulster Unionist Party This governed at Stormont for 50 years before the Troubles however it was soundly beaten at the last general election, and reduced to just 1 MP. Leader Reg Empey has a big job on his hands to rebuild the party, and there is currently internal trouble after the PUP’s David Ervine joined the UUP group in the Assembly. (The PUP are linked to the UVF).
It’s difficult to see what sort of niche the UUP can carve out for itself in the short term. It will never be more hardline than the DUP, nor could it gain much with a ‘power sharing now’ slogan. There is no desire in the unionist community to see Martin McGuinness as Deputy First Minister (even if the MI6 rumors are true!). Its best tactic could be to wait for Paisley to leave the scene, and for some form of ‘unionist realignment’ to take place.
Social Democratic & Labour Party Talk of its demise has (so far) been premature. At the last election there were predictions of wipeout, however the SDLP lost only 1 seat (Newry & Armagh to Sinn Fein). It held its other 2 (Foyle and South Down), and took 1 from the UUP (South Belfast). However, victory in Foyle was due in part to tactical voting from unionists, South Down to Eddie McGrady’s personal vote, and South Belfast to a split unionist vote.
These circumstances will not always be there to save them. With Sinn Fein sounding more moderate, the SDLP could yet face a UUP style wipeout. Its organisation on the ground is reported to be weak and party morale low. The SDLP is in poor health and looks old and tired next to a re-branded Sinn Fein.
Sinn Fein Gone are the days of the broadcasting ban, of Gerry Adams smoking a pipe in public, and of sectarian murders getting in the way of its electioneering. These days the party is trying to present a modern and moderate image - not an armalite to be seen. Sinn Fein is well organised on the ground and has a crop of young ‘middle class’ activists coming through its ranks.
No one should underestimate the journey that Adams has taken the republican movement on, or his achievement of keeping it more or less united. He is not about to throw that away by easing up on the SDLP now he has them on the run. Sinn Fein will lead the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland for some time to come. An election in the Republic is not far away and it is possible (though unlikely) that Sinn Fein could hold the balance of power.
So what of the next UK General Election? The DUP could win 10 or 11 seats (subject to an electoral pact with the UUP). If Labour or the Tories are just short of an overall majority, could the Big Man hold the balance of power? No need for a formal deal with the Lib Dems when a loose arrangement with Paisley would do. Though Paisley is no fan of power sharing (!), he could help keep a minority government in place for a year or so.
All very hypothetical and unlikely, but remember: The UUP helped John Major during the 90’s when his majority was disappearing. In 1979 2 Nationalist MP’s (Gerry Fitt and Frank Maguire) abstained in the vote of no confidence – which Labour by one vote.
Ian Jones is half Welsh, half Northern Irish, and currently living in England. He is not, and never have been a member of any political party.
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I have raised the prospect of the DUP possibly having the balance of power at Westminster here on this site before.
The Libdems may only have three or four times the number of seats than the DUP after the next election. I can see no way the DUP would prop up a Labour/Libdem coalition to keep out the Conservatives.
If the Conservatives fall just shy of a majority, the DUP may be a more sensible choice than the Libdems as a partner. After all the DUP are not the main opposition in many Conservative seats like the Libdems are.
This came up at a public meeting the other day in Portcullis House. The SF West Tyrone MP Pat Doherty gave pretty much the same assessment of the DUP: “Most people think Paisley will never share power with the other parties, let alone SF.”
The Labour MP Stephen Pound, who is on the NI select committee, said the DUP people he was talking to were more interested in the balance of power at Westminster, than in sharing power at Stormont.
Doherty said that he’s had a lot of dialogue with the Tories, and his understanding was that they accept the Good Friday Agreement.
For me this comment confirmed the impression I’d formed of Gerry Adams’ replied remarks in Madrid, where he compared the Tories role in the peace process favourably to the Spanish Conservatives’ approach to its Basque equivalent.
I can’t imagine SF being happy about the prospect of a Tory Government, but they’re obviously not blind to the way the odds have shortened.
I’m not sure Cameron “Conservative Liberal” would be too comfortable next to the “Rev”.
Still if he was deputy PM we could all long for the days of John Prescott… no there’s an unlikely thought.
At least if Paisley was Deputy Prime Minister he would make Menzies Campbell appear to be a youngster.
This is, of course, pure fantasy. Labour under Brown will be able to renew itself any any idea of the of the DUP or the Lib Dems have any part in the next Government is simply not going to happem
This site has become a Labour-free zone and all these little spats between the pathetic Tories and the even more pathetic Lib Dems just show how ridiculous it has become.
Today’s poll in the Guardian shows how Labour members feel. Roll on Tony’s departure and bring in Gordon.
4 - I’m no fan of Labour, but I agree with your final point. The endless talk of the succession is utterly boring now, and it pains me that we’re going to have to put up with a lame-duck administration for the next year or two years, as well as the tedious media circus that follows it. Once Gordon is in place, we can get down to business.
I have to agree with a lot of the earlier posts, except that there is a tendency on this site to expect permanent deals, coalitions and partners in the event of a hung parliament. I just don’t see it happening: it hasn’t in the past and the political game hasn’t changed. Any inconclusive result will see all parties positioning themselves for another election within 2 years.
The DUP are already at the top end of their winnable range, so couldn’t add much more than 20 to a party’s majority - and is all the trouble they’d bring worth it? Better to go issue-by-issue to the Commons than rely on them (or anyone else).
Ian, many thanks for an excellent article - a model, IMHO, of what guest contributions should be. Having had connections with the place over many years, and visited it twice, my impression - as you imply - is that politics there is rather “in suspense” until Old Man Paisley leaves the scene.
[6] I agree with every word, David. I’d only add that we tend to think of a “hung parliament” as a single beast, when it’s really rather more of a menagerie, depending upon how far short of a majority the largest party is, and how far ahead of the second largest. One possibility not yet discussed here AFAIK is that it might suit all (British) parties to pass a Bill fixing its term (at, say, two years) on a one-off basis - on the grounds that neither the electorate nor the party machines want to be suddenly plunged into a snap election. This would of course set a precedent, which might catch on, as it would protect the right of a majority Prime Minister to dissolve at will.
4 I am not sure that “this site has become a Labour free zone”
There are very few people giving uncritical support to the Labour Govt on this site. But, there are many people on the site who have voted Labour in the past/may vote Labour next time. (I don’t know what kind of a mood I’ll be in by 2010).
Congratulations on a nicely judged and non-partisan guest slot, Ian.
7. Thanks Innocent.
The feel in Northern Ireland, as you say, is that nothing much will happen politically while Paisley is still around. If the ‘moderates’ in the DUP succeed him like say Peter Robinson, then there may be some progress on things and a thawing in the relationship with the UUP. If a ‘hardliner’ succeeds him like Nigel Dodds or Ian Paisley Junior then it could just be more of the same.
9. I should have complimented you on the article as well. It’s a worthwhile subject we don’t visit that often and the commentary provides an excellent introduction.
How united is the DUP as an organisation? As an outsider, it seems that the unifying factors are (a) Paisley himself, (b) opposition to the UUP, (c) opposition to the Good Friday settlement and (d) the collective security found in a seige mentality. Of these, Paisley must at some time go and none of the others provides a model for leading Northern Ireland. They are all reasons not to do things. Yet they have just won an election, so have a responsibility to do something. Presumably, they will say that they would were it not for the structure imposed upon them. Fair enough, but that position must become more difficult to sustain providing that none of the old troubles return - and the terrorist game has changed since the days of the IRA, making that less likely. If pressure mounts from the mainland and within NI, there exists the potential for almighty divisions within the DUP after Paisley’s departure.
It would be a crashing mistake for any mainland British party to enter into coalition with any party from Northern Ireland. The Northern Irish paradox is that, while individually the vast majority of the people there are among the nicest and most hospitable on the planet, their politics are locked in the tribal religious hatreds that the rest of Europe has moved away from since the 17th and 18th centuries. As we have mentioned recently on this site, religious sectarianism has virtually disappeared as a determinant of voting intention in Britain, even in the West of Scotland and Liverpool. When I lived in Sweden in the 1980s, Swedes, knowing I was from Scotland, often told me “We cannot understand what is happening in Northern Ireland”. I usually answered, “The Swedish soldiers who went into Germany with Gustavus Adolphus during the Thirty Years War would have understood it only too well”. Have a look at http://www.ianpaisley.org to see what I mean.
History matters there. Just as every Serb knows about their battles with the Ottoman Turks in 1371 and 1389, every child in Northern Ireland recognises the dates 1641, 1690, 1798 and 1916 (this last, depending on which tribe the child is from, as both the date of the Easter Rising, when 1600 Irish Volunteers fought off a British force of ultimately 20,000 troops with artillery and naval gun support for a week, and the Battle of the Somme, where the 36th (Ulster) Division [recruited from the UVF] shed its blood like water, and took and held the Schwaben Ridge).
The attitudes of most of the political parties in NI are not ones that modern British parties could associate with. Any of the normal trade-offs that coalition-building entails would carry an unacceptable price. I agree with David Herdson in repsonse 6. If there is no clear-cut result from the next UK general election, it would be far better for whatever party in Westminster could form a minority government to do so, and to try to get their legislation through on an issue-by-issue basis.
10. Thanks David. The DUP at the moment would seem to be quite united. I would agree with the 4 reasons you gave, but would say that Paisley himself is by far the biggest factor. He has been leader the party since 1971 and a large number of members simply follow his lead.
I think there are 2 big dangers on the horizen for the DUP.
1: The consequences of not entering into power sharing (which I don’t see Paisley doing). The government has talked about imposing a series of ‘beefed up’ local councils which would see Nationalists (mainly Sinn Fein) running large parts of the Province. How would the unionist electorate react to that, and would they blame the DUP for not doing a deal?
2: The departure of Paisley. He is the DUP. The power struggle that follows could well see a realignment in unionism and the re-emergence of the UUP.
I understand the main DUP battleground to be Robinson vs Paisly Jnr. For years Robinson looked a shoe horn in till the Ole Fella failed to die and his son has gained in prominence.
Now Paisley Jnr seems to have only 1 thing in his favour - his name - whilst Robinson seems to be a practical and sensible chap as far as DUP folks go. But I also get the suspicion that the UUP walker fancies his chances.
What’s the respective strengths of these 3 camps?
Thanks to Ian for a witty and balanced piece - very interesting.
11. I can’t see either Labour of the Tories entering into a formal coalition with the DUP in the event of a hung Parliament. But the possibility exists for the DUP to support a minority government on some votes. The DUP will almost certainly have 10 or 11 votes, and a minority government isn’t going to be that fussy about where votes come from.
13 - what about Dodds, too?
16 - I think Dodds would be a contender if there was no consensus on the main contenders - I see him as a challenger in waiting - he needs a few more years or the removal of one of the other contenders to really be able to make his mark. Depends if the DUP elect by STV or not!
13. I’m not that close to things, but my feel is that Paisley jnr may have his nose in front at the moment. As you say, his name is everything, and if the old man hangs on as leader until ‘the end’ I can see the soggy eyed DUP members voting for jnr.
I agree with what you say about Robinson. He has been around for years and is well liked, but (maybe like Gordon) his time has gone.
The impression I get is that Donaldson is very ambitious and would love to do it. Just not sure if he could get enough support being an ex UUP man. Not enough blood and thunder.
Don’t write off Nigel Dodds either. From the ‘Conservative’ wing of the party, but could also pick up some of Robinson’s support if he fails to make it.
I can’t imagine it would be in DC’s interests to ally with Paisley if the latter is still blocking power sharing; it would be bad for the brand and the Tories would be eyeing another election in 18 months to two years. Also what would Paisley demand in return? If the Tories just fell short a minority administration would be viable for a period of time. The difficulty comes if neither of the two big Parties has anywhere near a majority. In those circumstances there might be aggressive courting of the LDs by both the big parties and my money would be on the LDs choosing the Tories; who would want to prop up a discredited new Labour project clearly on the way out (the Brown rebrand having failed in this scenario)? Also LD and Tory policies are likely to be converging over the next couple of years.
4-Flash Gordon. ‘This site has become a Labour-free zone’. That is because much of this Country is becoming a Labour-free zone! Wake up dude and smell the coffee.
Also I thought Paisley and Ming were the same age?
Indeed the big question for the DUP and indeed NI Unionist politics is what happens after Paisley. He has a knack of just when you think he has peaked, coming back ever stronger. An inspiring figure and political giant.
“As we have mentioned recently on this site, religious sectarianism has virtually disappeared as a determinant of voting intention in Britain, even in the West of Scotland and Liverpool”
Actually, I think religious sectarianism could become quite a potent factor in British politics. Look at the result from Bethnal Green and Bow.
20. Don’t patronise me DC - “dude” is not a very PBC word and I fear you are deluding yourself about “much of this country has become a Labour-free zone”. Yes - the party is going through a period of transition and there will be more rough rides ahead but we are nowhere near a position where the electorate will elect any other than a Labour Government.
I have no doubt that Cameron does pose a threat but this will be blunted when Labour’s new leadership takes over. Having a leader who is about substance and not just a flashy media performer will make a very big difference.
A large part of the extra votes that the Lib Dems secured at the General Election came from Labour supporters who could not stomach keeping Blair there. Once Blair is gone and Gordon is in place then, and the polls show this clearly, a lot of those who went to the Lib Dems last time will return.
21- Good points Sean.
Your first paragraph is welcome news. Your second is concerning. I hope one kind of religious sectarianism is not replaced by another.
23 - read the thread dude!
para 1 was a quote from an earlier post
para 2 was a suggestion that the quote might not be fully accurate.
[21] Sean Fear wrote I think religious sectarianism could become quite a potent factor in British politics. Look at the result from Bethnal Green and Bow - or indeed Birmingham municipal politics. In these, as in Northern Ireland, there is the dismal conjunction of racial & religious cleavage (since to Irish Republicans of the old school the Ulster Protestants are “planted” Scots) … those who don’t want PR for English local government could do worse than to point to the issue of ethno-religious blocs either holding a permanent balance of power in major English cities or leading the “white” parties to form co-alition administrations against them. Not a happy thought…
22- But Flash, as polls show, many Labour voters would return to the Conservatives without Blair at the helm. Labour’s vote share may increase slighty but the Conservatives will by much more. The big losers I think we can agree on? will be the Libdems squeezed by both sides.
21 / 23. I would much prefer to see Northern Ireland voting ‘Red or Blue’ rather than ‘Orange or Green’. Can’t see it happening though. The Tories started to organise in NI in the early 90’s, but so far have not made much of an impact.
24- ok dude, point taken but the post is still very valid. Am I too hip for some on here?
There can never be any hope for Britain as long as two large nominally ‘unionist’ Parties who alternate in government of the UK continue to pretend to have any interest in Northern Ireland but do not themselves stand for office there. Proportional Representation at ‘Ulster’ level and below gives them a real chance to attempt to nibble away at sectarianism, but they basically cannot be bothered to even try.
29. The Tories do try albeit without much success. Labour traditionally supported a united Ireland and so did not organise there, and the Lib Dems I believe have some loose arrangement with the Alliance (Lib Dems please correct me if I am wrong).
Sadly there is just no appetite in Northern Ireland for the mainland parties.
Just seen this. A bit technical, but quite timely.
Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are proposing changes to the way Northern Ireland’s laws are made at Westminster.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/5089430.stm
There have been informal links between Labour and the SDLP for some while.
The Tories were formally the Conservative and Unionist Party (until c 1978?) - possibly still are in parts of Scotland! - and were kind of partners with the old Unionist Party
The Libs used to have an arrangement with the Alliance - when it was an Alliance alliance with The Alliance?
There was a push from some Labour members (about 2?) to try and get the Labour party to stand in Ulster for a while but it got little support.
David Owens SDP did stand in the 6 counties if I remember ciorrectly, but didn’t change the political landscape too much.
The Greens I think are divided into a north and south green party, as some feel they should be an Irish Green Party and some don’t! - But that’s the Greens everywhere really
The article’s last line: “which Labour by one vote” - presumably the word “won” or “lost” is missing?
33 - i think it is lost!
The independent republican MP for Fermanagh Frank Maguire turned up for the no-confidence vote in order to abstain in person! He rarely attended the House, being a semi-abstentionist, and it was his death in 1981 that lead to the byelection which Bobby Sands won.
Perhaps this helps explain why both Labour and Tory get edgy about Irish politics!
32. The SDP stood in the Upper Bann by election in 1990 and came last, behind some rather interesting parties I seem to remember.
34. I did hear a story about how Labour whips tried to get Maguire drunk and then carry him through the yes lobby hoping he wouldnt realise what was going on. They gave up after he downed the second bottle of whiskey and seemed as right as rain.
25 the result from City Ward in Bradford 2004 was the most striking example of sectarian voting I’ve ever seen. Two Muslim Conservatives got 2,100 and 1,900 votes. The non-Muslim Conservative got 622!
32 - I’m pretty sure that the SDLP MPs take the Labour whip.
Maguire’s ‘abstention in person’ in 1978 only happened because Gerry Fitt, outraged by Roy Mason as Secretary of State, would have voted for the No Confidence motion, had Maguire (who had been plied with ‘tipples’ in the Whips Office all day) voted against.
35 - yes - a fascinating encounter which actually saw 2 mainland parties taking each other on, and I think the Ind Labour candidate was one of those pushing for full Labour participation…
David Trimble (Ulster Unionist Party) 20,547 (58.0%)
Brid Rodgers (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 6,698 (18.9%)
Sheena Campbell (Sinn Féin) 2,033 (5.7%)
Rev Hugh Ross (Ulster Independence Movement) 1,534 (4.3%)
Tom French (Workers Party) 1,083 (3.1%)
Colette Jones (Conservative) 1,038 (3.0%)
William Ramsay (Alliance) 948 (2.7%)
Gary McMichael (Ulster Democratic Party) 600 (1.7%)
Peter Doran (Green Party) 576 (1.6%)
Erskine Holmes (Independent Labour) 235 (0.6%)
Alistair Dunn (SDP) 154 (0.4%)
There was also a court case some years back wherein a man from Ulster was demanding the Labour party organise there, and that his democratice rights were being impeached because he could not join the party of government or something? I guess he lost his case…
I can’t see either party touching Paisley with a barge pole - the price would be too high. There has been an establishment consensus since 1990 that this country wants rid of NI, one way or another, and that is not going to be reversed. We only kept hold of it because of its strategic significance, first against Hitler, and to a lesser extent against USSR, and because of some rather short-sighted decisions made by Irish leaders such as Costello. I can forsee, if not re-partition, some type of cantonization. All the seats bordering the Republic are now represented by nationalists. The writing is on the wall…
40 - Paisley would never stand for something as Romish sounding as Cantonization! It would be an obvious Papist Plot.
38 - Oops, that should be 1979.
40: “There has been an establishment consensus since 1990 that this country wants rid of NI, one way or another”
I do not believe that this is the case. The consensus is that it is for the people of Northern Ireland to determine their own future. Whether that be union with GB or union with the republic. That is what has been formalised in the Good Friday Agreement.
If by ‘the writing is on the wall’ you mean a united Ireland is round the corner - again I disagree with you.
37. Without wishing to get too far into the politics of the predominantly Asian areas of Bradford, that result wasn’t particularly about religion or even race, but ‘community’. The two Asian candidates were in and of the local communiy with its extended families, the white candidate lives in an affluent suburb of the district and was a paper candidate. The right white candidate can win there and in other similar wards (although no Conservative has done so yet, Labour and the Lib Dems have managed to), as have Asians from different backgrounds.
Another ward presenting displaying similar tendencies is Toller, where in 2004 the five candidates topping the poll were all had the surname Hussain, with the four others finishing sixth to nineth.
Didn’t the tories get quite a considerable number of votes in one of the Northern Island seats in 1992? Down North i think it was.
43. “The consensus is that it is for the people of Northern Ireland to determine their own future. ”
Funny how this was never the British concensus for ‘the people of Ireland’ to make a similar decision.
Of course there is no appetite for any ‘mainland’ Party who turns up at the polls and expects votes. Political development requires years of work away from election time. The bar charts come later!
I am surprised that we do not give more honours to people in Ulster.
Careless
Bullets
Everywhere
45. yes, second place and around 10% behind.
45 - it’s a long story that one, and worth the reading - the whole constituency is like a soap opera!
anyway in 1992 as you say, the Conservatives did well:
Jim Kilfedder (Ulster Popular Unionist Party) 19,305 (42.9%)
Laurence Kennedy (Conservative Party) 14,371 (32%)
Addie Morrow (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 6,611 (14.7%)
Denny Vitty (Democratic Unionist Party) 4,414 (9.8%)
Andrew Wilmot (Natural Law Party) 255 (0.6%)
but by 1995 ‘normality’ clawed its way back:
Bob McCartney (UK Unionist Party) 10124 (37.0%)
Alan McFarland (Ulster Unionist Party) 7232 (26.4%)
Sir Oliver Napier (Alliance) 6970 (25.4%)
Alan Chambers (Independent Unionist) 2170 (7.9%)
Stuart Sexton (Conservative) 583 (2.1%)
Michael Brooks (Free Para Lee Clegg) 109 (0.4%)
Christopher Carter (Ulster’s Independent Voice) 101 (0.4%)
James Anderson (Natural Law Party) 100 (0.4%)
since then the Conservatives have continued to stand in this seat, getting roughly 700-1300 votes each time. I am not sure if they and the few others who still stand as Conservatives actually have official mainland party support anymore though?
43. Sorry I omitted to answer your question Ian. What I meant by ‘the writing on the wall’ was for any chance of anyone unbiased anywhere in the world ever taking the UK seriously (as opposing to pretend to do it, which many will continue to do for many years to come. The blatant hypocrisy of the UK sending ‘peace-keeping forces’ into ethnic/religious faction disputes worldwide takes the biscuit. My related wory is that our political governors also display massive cant about integration within ‘mainland Britain’. All we need is for some of our ethnic ghettoes to get a bit bigger and more pronounced/institutionalised and for the wrong issue to spark things off at the wrong time.
43. Yes I believe the people of NI will determine their own future, but there is nothing in the wording of the Good Friday agreement, as you express it, that means that the six counties(a gerrymandered entity) must vote as a unit, one way or another. While I don’t believe a united(or more accurately an undivided/re-united) Ireland is round the corner, I do believe that the option for re-partition or similar is closer than you think. After all, it was explicitly provided for in the legislation that first partitioned Ireland in 1921.
50. There is an argument that the border should have been ‘tidied up’ at the time of partition. e.g. villages cut in half, the border running through the middle of lakes etc.. While most people would have no objection to loosing south Armagh to the republic, I just can’t see it happening.
What you may see if power sharing does not get off the ground is the government implementing its proposals for a new council structure. This would give councils a lot of autonomy and could see the nationalist dominated border councils establishing links across the border.
I have now got to go and take part in that very Irish activity, namely – cricket. I’m glad the article seems to have gone down well, and thanks for the feedback received.
52 - a good article on a neglected topic - thanks Ian.
Wasn’t Parnell a fan of Cricket?
“While most people would have no objection to loosing south Armagh to the republic, I just can’t see it happening.”
It’s debateable whether the Republic would even want South Armagh IMO.
52. I think you’ve done a great job. Thanks.
And it’s one of the pieces who got the highest number of in-topic comments!
A good example of religious/ethnic vote divides in the UK can be found from looking at the Respect votes in London’s multi-member wards. The (presumably SWP) white candidates polled less, sometimes considerably so, than the muslim candidates. I can understand the odd ward if someone doesn’t live there but all the time?
Incidentally, whenever I see Ian Paisley Jr. I think of Richard Cromwell.
Strange, whenever I see Ian Paisley, Jr., I think of… Ian Paisley!!
22. Flash Gordon makes a very valid point that when Blair leaves the scene lots of those traditional Labour voters who voted Lib Dem at the last election should return to Labour. I doubt it’ll make any difference to those seats that are currently Lib Dem but for those who just wanted to register a protest against Blair and Iraq I cant imagine most of them staying if there is any possibility of a Tory win.
As for anyone speaking up for Ian Paisley……I’m sure that those who remember his explicit racism during the 70’s wouldn’t want him anywhere near a coalition with their party. His quotes on record from those days would sink any major party that chose to enter into a parliamentary arrangement with him at the following election.
56.in some of the split wards (but not all) the white Labour candidates (judging from the names of the candidates) seemed to have done worse than the Muslim ones too. But it could be down to other reasons other than religion (beind hardworking councillors, being better known or something else).
32 - Until the suspension of Stormont the Unionist MPs at Westminster took the Tory whip and were counted as part of the Conservative parliamentary party. Some held junior ministerial posts in Conservative governments; the last of these being Robin Chichester-Clark, Employment Minister under Edward Heath.
Of course anyone from NI wishing to get involved in ’serious’ national politics can always move to the mainland (eg Hooey, Mawhinny etc). But it is a sad reflection on the most educated and cultured part of the UK (and the rest of us) that they cannot elect politicians other than on sectarian lines.
Ian, thanks for an interesting and balanced article.
Regarding the possibility of the DUP propping up a minority Conservative administration, I think it is questionable whether the DUP’s demands could be met without the Conservatives being seen to have abandoned an even-handed approach to Northern Ireland.
On the nationalist side, Sinn Féin appear to have reached an electoral peak at the 2004 European Election and have since flatlined at 25% in the North and 10% in the Republic. The last three opinion polls in the Republic show them falling back to 8-9% which, while not underestimating their electoral machine, suggests that they will struggle to get 10 seats at the next Dáil election.
The SDLP, as you say are suffering from weak organisation and morale, and something of an identity crisis. Nevertheless there is still a substantial ‘anyone but SF’ vote. The revised boundaries give them more hope of retaining South Down compared with the original proposals.
Going back to the hung parliament scenario, I wouldn’t totally write off the possibility of Sinn Féin taking their seats at Westminster. It would inevitably lead to a split in the republican movement, but if Adams & Co decided there was more to gain than to lose from abandoning the doctrinaire position it could happen. Sinn Féin TD Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin made some interesting remarks about this recently when he said ‘It’s not about the Oath’.
Sinn Fein don’t take up their seats, but they do take the parliamentary salary and expenses, as I understand it. I find that scandalous.
63 - You’re right - it’s shocking - who gives people the right to elect them - that’s what I want to know!
28 - yes, hip in a kind of Hague baseball cap way.
Being ‘hip’ is overrated anyway
Just seen Hazel Blears on SkyNews- with those damned bells ringing in the background (btw, hasn’t the Queens already reached 80 a couple of months ago? Why is she having 2 birthdays in the same year?!)- so everything is fantastic: everyone loves Tony, the tories don’t have seats in Manchester, Newcastle and Liverpool and Lab is just 10% behind (and not more than 20%) and so on.
This month’s is her official birthday, Andrea. In any event, who are we mortals to deny Her Majesty a second birthday if she wants one?
68. Thanks, Alastair
My solution to NI problem is as follows.
i) It must be recognised on all sides that a) 1921 partition was undemocratic b) an all-Ireland or NI only referendum would be equally undemocratic.
ii) Since c) the present parties in NI refuse to work together and d) i) above is/are not the solution.
iii) The only solution remaining on the table is repartition, but a staged repartiton along the following lines….
A) a non-binding plebiscite on re-unification be held throughout NI, with data recorded down to ward level.
B) Each year, over the next 25 years, the top ranked 2% of wards expressing a desire to re-unite with Eire, should be given a binding plebiscite “for real” and if confirmed, should be ceded to the Republic.
That way, minimal number of people (30,00 per year, of which only a fraction to begin with will be in the minority), will be affected at any one time, and those who can’t countenance being on the wrong side of the divide will have ample time to move, perhaps only a short distance to an area more amenable to their sectarian tastes. Minimum disruption, minimum fuss, maximum democracy, and a positive progression that few on any side could fault…
70 - Why not give people on the southern side a vote too? There are lots of folks from old unionist families that might like to pay more for their petrol in the North!
If I remember correctly, when the finally proposed amendments to the 1921 partition border were put forward, the south lost more land to the north (though not population…) than vice versa, and the whole torrid subject was quietly shelved by all 3 governments!
56/59 I suggest you both look at the result in Bromley by Bow ward. If you know the Topwer Hamlets political scebne it will be even more illuminating
72. I’d have no problem extending the plebiscite to the entire province of Ulster, and giving any “Orange” wards in the south the same right to join with the North, but I seriously doubt there’d be any.
According to ConHome, Nigel Adams has been selected for Selby and Ainsty. He wasn’t on the Priority List and he defeated 3 A listers, including Ann McIntosh MP, for the selection.
He’s the Vice President of Selby Conservatives and he faught Rossendale and Darwen last year.
Re. 45, but even had he won, it wouldn’t really have represented a gain for the Tories, as the late Sir James Kilfedder took the Tory Whip anyway (just as the SDLP take the Labour Whip).
It’s not often I agree with Bruce Anderson, but I agree with his suggestion that it would have been better if, instead of being given Stormont, Northern Ireland should have been fully integrated with the mainland. That way, it just might have escaped sectarian politics, with class politics instead of sectarian politics (the first being less rigid than the second, when people can move class more easily than they change their religions).
That said, maybe it’s a bit of a utopian scenario, given the religious divide seen in Liverpool and the West of Scotland until fairly recently. Plus, of course, both main parties in the Republic are based on (reactions to) the 1921 Treaty.
As for the DUP leadership, I hope Nigel Dodds or Peter Robinson gets it. Ian Paisley Jnr is just Ian Paisley Snr minus the redeeming qualities. He’s a humourless irk.
“He’s a humourless irk” Is that a humourless I.R.K. Paisley? (senior has forenames Ian Richard Kyle…) Didn’t know the good Doctor had a sense of humour….
Richard, ‘integrated with the mainland’? Do you mean Eurasia?
76 - I do remember him cracking (not craiging) some Jewish jokes “with” a Jewish reporter in Africa a while back - had the hut in stitches if I recall…
63: to be fair, I think the Sinn Fein MPs do do constituency work, which is what most of the allowances are for. I don’t suppose they use their right to weekly free travel to Westminster. It’s obviously unsatisfactory that they don’t take part in Parliamentary business, but then some other MPs are rarely spotted too (e.g. George Galloway), and neither whips nor shadow whips nor deputy speakers ever say anything in public session, so ultimately it’s up to their voters to weigh up whether it’s a decisive argument.
(General passing comment: it’s rare that ’scandalous’ things are quite as scandalous as they appear - there is often an arguable case for things which appear to be outrageous at first sight.)
The other thing I find ’scandalous’, Nick is first paa the post for westminster. I am a Scientist, and try to look at things objectively. I have never belonged to any political party.
It seems to me, that the Power enquiry, and the electoral reform society have looked at our democracy dispassionately, and have come to the conclusion that STV is the best system for electing our representatives.
I am sick of hearing the likes of Hazel Blears and Jack Straw saying that we have a problem connecting with the people, and that we need to boost turnout (Geoff Hoon is another). Yet they reject electoral reform. The classic politician reply is ‘I do not accept the case for electora reform etc. etc.’ They’d reject the case for gravity if it suited them!
Why not give the Electoral Commission and The Electoral reform Society carte blanche to sort out our democracy? I guarentee, if left to their own devices, they’d boost turnout. Give power back to the people. Don’t leave it to 800,000 voters in marginal constituencies!
79. Nick, as you say the argument for them receiving expenses is that they do undertake constituency work. Personally I would like to see them take the oath and sit in Westminster, however that is a long way off. As a previous poster said, it could mean a split in the republican ranks. And Adams and McGuinness are paranoid about that.
80 - do countries with PR have markedly higher turnout than Britain?
Most continental countries do. I am sure the Irish Republic (which uses STV) does. STV can give a party a majority if they get about 45% of the vote.
The pure PR that Israel and Italy used to use is a daft system.
As I said, look at the best evidence dispassionately, not from a narrow party view.
70 - my “solution”:
Rincorporate the RoI and NI as a unified nation within the Republic of Iona (Islands of the North Atlantic), comprising Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England.
Regional Parliaments in all four capitals, with the Republican Parliament in Manchester. Constitution modelled on the German one, with ceremonial Head of State rotated around the four nations, serving one four year term every four years, and appointed by the Regional Parliament.
82 - yes.
80. AJK, to be fair Nick Palmer has declared his support for PR.
84. Tabman, you are jesting us sideways.
79 - I’m far from a fan of Sinn Fein, but it’s not as if those who vote for them don’t know that they aren’t going to take their seats.
83 - turnout in the last Irish general election was 63%.
re 84. Tabbers - your plan would be even better if it involved as well reincorporating the colonies lost in 1776
88 - Mike, Cornwallis is a fellow alumnus of mine
ALthough as the chain email has it, “Americans - the 1776 Declaration of Independence was illegal and has never been recognised in British Law. Henceforth you will return to the fold as a Colony under the Crown … “
AJK - Electoral Reform.
I am a scientist as well (PhD in Mathematical Statistics). Years ago, I analysed the ways votes could be allocated. (There are some very interesting theorems about voting schemes.) The major result is that there is no such thing as a “fair” voting system. Whatever system you choose, you can demonstrate circumstances under which it produces perverse results.
Given the inherent weaknesses of ALL voting systems, it is logical to abandon “fairness” as the primary determinant of your chosen system. Stability, coupled with some linkage to the wishes of the largest “group” of voter opinions seems to be a pretty reasonable second best after absolute fairness (which is mathematically impossible). That more or less brings you back to FPTP.
Rod Crosby’s proposal of repeated border polls on a ward by ward basis is the worst possible suggestion. It would reinforce the Unionist feeling of a community under threat, as Armagh and Derry are nibbled away.
The long term solution may be a form of joint authority, preferably under the RoI fiscal regime. This is Hain’s last resort.
70-RedCrosby
Anything preventing your proposed solution for NI also being applcable for Scottish independence?
Yes, I support PR, though note that the ERS are not neutral observers - they were set up specifically to campaign for STV, so asking them to decide the system would be like asking CND to decide about Trident - you know what the answer will be. As with most controversies there are arguments on both sides and I don’t think one can argue that it’s obvious that one system is superior and anyone who disagrees is against democracy.
WRT Sinn Fein, I agree with the backbench Tory MP (Douglas Hogg, I think, though I could be wrong) who argued that we shouldn’t require an oath to the Queen since this prevented people from choosing fervent anti-monarchists to represent them - he wasn’t anti-monarchist himself, but felt that people should be free to elect someone who was. An oath to serve their constituents and be loyal to democracy would suffice, I think.
84 - Tabman I am with you as far as reuniting Ireland but we differ after that. Under the British Crown would be the prefered solution!
94. Rik W, perfectly absurd as usual. The idea that the Irish would want to abandon their Republic in favour of obeisance to the British monarchy ranks with your posts on the EPP withdrawal.
Oh Kevin get a grip - did you not see the tongue in the cheek?! lol
Typical tetchy leftie!
BTW who pays obeisance in a modern constitutional monarchy? Discuss.
90 “Given the inherent weaknesses of ALL voting systems, it is logical to abandon “fairness” as the primary determinant of your chosen system.”
Why is it logical to abandon fairness as the primary determinant? You may not get a perfect alternative system and you may wish to make compromises in deciding the system you adopt, but to abondon fairness as the primary determinant seems a litle rash.
“Stability, coupled with some linkage to the wishes of the largest “group” of voter opinions seems to be a pretty reasonable second best after absolute fairness (which is mathematically impossible). That more or less brings you back to FPTP.”
Why should the largest party get their wishes regardless of the percentage of their vote? If 99 people stand for an election all getting 1% and 1 gets 2% should the one that gets 2% be elected, even if his/hers ‘wishes’ are completely different to the other 98 candidates and 98% of the voters?
It can be argueds that STV or AV can provide stability even if they are less likely to produce a majority for one party and they keep the constituency representation that is the normal argument against PR. Most other established democracies have PR or quasi PR systems and seem to have stability.
95/96. Please, no late night fights.
Could we all agree that the best choice would beto reunite everything under the power of the Isle of Man*, right?
*I picture the Isle of Man as a sunny island with lots of men in swimwears….but I doubt it’s like that!
Andrea as a gentleman I am prepared to accept an apology from Kevin L for his insulting remarks
97 Sorry last para should have read ‘one of the other arguments against PR’ instead of ‘the normal argument against PR’
98 “*I picture the Isle of Man as a sunny island with lots of men in swimwears….but I doubt it’s like that!”
I did a contract there a few years ago and oh you are so right (that is your ‘doubt’ and not your ‘dream’). Sorry if I have offended any IOM residents!
99. Rik, look at the positive side, your comment was labelled as “perfectly absurd”, not just absurd. The “perfectly” adds a sort of touch of class
But yes, better a diplomatic resolution of this controversy that a duel…..I don’t have a funeral hat (do people wear hats at funerals in UK?)
101. kjh, why are you destroying all my hopes?! The IOM would have been a good election target…..I’ve already contacted a gym there!
102 As I think it was only a few years ago they outlawed the birch (under pressure from the UK or EU or someone) I don’t think it would be classed as one of the most liberal of islands so probably not on Reynard’s target list if they decided to join in with the rest of fun and games on the mainland. I think the Tories would be considered a little left wing for them.
And it rains!
102 Giggled at the gym reference.
There’s apparently a new MORI poll around:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,1800323,00.html
Tories are leading by 7%….is it a new one or did I miss something?
105. It’s definitely a new poll (as it refers to the previous MORI poll which had a 10% Tory lead).
Labour getting the gitters.
http://www.sundayherald.com/56311
should have typed jitters!
91. I don’t se why - every ward or two that votes to join the Republic increases the proportion of Unionists left in the remainder.
92. No, I can’t see a philosophical reason to deny it - but ask me again when there are Scottish separatist bombs going off in London….
93 - *Chokes violently* Douglas Hogg said that!?!?
109. Rod, it is a purely mechanistic approach, and ignores the political situation. If the nationalists went along with this the first areas to seceed would be West Belfast, South Armagh and Derry Cityside. It won’t happen, forget it.
Blackadder
Thanks for your comments. I just think a system where 2/3s of constituencies can be predicted in advance of an election is a tad unfair.
I’m lucky to live in a marginal seat: one where (in the words of Mr T himself, ‘vote Lib-Dem, and wake up with a Tory Government).
How stupid is that?
It’s Reading East by the way
AJK
Thanks for your interest in my post…
Fairness cannot be the PRIMARY goal of any electoral system, since it is essentially unachievable. However, people have a “gut-feel” for what they think is “unfair”, even though it is undefineable. So some degree of “fairness” must be present in a voting system. E.g. most people would agree that a dictatorship is “unfair”. A voting system that restricts the franchise can also be “unfair”, but is it “unfair” to limit the franchise to adults?
I can sympathise with your “gut-feel” about most constituencies being “safe” for one Party or another. Unfortunately, every voting system produces such situations. Whenever the result is largely predictable, some people will feel that it is unfair that their vote counts for nothing, and hence that it is pointless voting. This applies equally to PR.
Put another way, stability equals predictability equals unfairness (in someone’s eyes). On the other hand, it’s what makes politics interesting.
109 - nationalists living in West Belfast, the West Bank of the Foyle, South Down and South Armagh would probably be very keen on the idea (and more thoughtful Unionists might be as well, as it would increase the overall proportion of Unionists in the rest of Northern Ireland).
But I can’t see either nationalist party endorsing the idea as it would mean that Antrim, North and Mid Down, East Londonderry, North Armagh, plus bits of Fermanagh and Tyrone would be in the UK forever.
44, But then look at the results for City Ward in 2006. Labour have gone from virtually level-pegging with the Conservatives to a lead of 2,000 votes over them. Labour fielded a Muslim candidate, and the Conservatives fielded a white candidate.
It seems quite clear that a non-Muslim has no chance (these days anyway) in that ward.
I think most Labour members (with the exception of a few moderate unionists like Tony Blair) would (hypothetically) lean towards the SDLP if they lived in Northern Ireland. However, although the links are strong enough to prevent any formal (or informal) coalition with a unionist party and to stop any talk of Labour accepting members from Northern Ireland I can’t imagine a SDLP-Labour coalition lasting.
I can think of several prominent Labour figures whose views on Northern Ireland are a good deal more hardline than those of the SDLP.
117. I’ve no doubt John McDonell (and Jeremy Corbyn too) would probably vote Sinn Fein in NI.
“There is no desire in the unionist community to see Martin McGuinness as Deputy First Minister (even if the MI6 rumors are true!)”
What rumuors? Have I missed something?
119. I suppose he meant this one:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0530/mcguinnessm.html
Thanks Andrea.
Well, I’ve heard of deep cover, but that really would be stretching it a little…
121 - Yes - the allegation leaves us with a situation where one set of “British intelligence sources” claim that McGuiness was a British spy while another set of “British intelligence sources” claim that he was the first man to fire a gun on Bloody Sunday - can they please have a meeting and get their story straight?
Bizarrely the only people who truly want to believe the spy allegations are die-hard republicans of a dissident variety who see the entire peace process as one long sell out after another.
122 well it is a bit reminiscent of G K Chesterton’s story “The Man Who Was Thursday” in which all the members of an anarchist terrorist sect turn out to be government agents.
123 - I believe there was a small communist outfit in the Netherlands during the Cold War, where it turned out that all but one of the members were agents from the security services. A few years ago the one genuine member sued the government for all the time and money he’d wasted on the fake “party”.
It was also the case that most senior members of the Neo-Nazi NPD in Germany turned out to be government agents a few years ago.
124.” A few years ago the one genuine member sued the government for all the time and money he’d wasted on the fake “party”. ”
did he win or not?