Can Heffer hurt Cameron in Bromley?
June 23rd, 2006-
Could the result not be a forgone conclusion after all?
So far punters have not got very excited about next Thursday’s by-elections in Bromley and Blaenau Gwent and on the betting markets very little money has been wagered.
The Tories look a near certainty to hold onto the outer London seat and there’s does not seem to be much interest in whether Labour can win back its former Welsh stronghold taken by the late Peter Laws in 2005 after the all-female shortlist row.
But could Bromley be turned on its head by Simon Heffer - the acerbic Telegraph columnist who now according to Guido’s site is planning to abandon the Tories and back UKIP.
According to Guido Heffer will endorse the anti-EU party at a meeting next Monday in Bromley with Nigel Farage - the prominent UKIP MEP who is standing in the by-election. Such a move just three days before polling could have a big impact and might see some Tory votes shifting across.
David Cameron has aroused passions of all kinds right across the political spectrum since his election as Tory leader last December - but few have been so forthright in their condemnation as Heffer. The former Daily Mail columnist played a key role in shaping the Telegraph’s lukewarm stance on the old-Etonian during campaign and he has been a fierce critic ever since.
Blunting the Telegraph’s support for the Tory leader could prove to have long-term significance although a Heffer move to UKIP, if Guido is right, would surely undermine the columnist’s influence both at the paper and within the Tory party.
In the seat UKIP are claiming that an internet poll is showing support of 22% and in a classic Lib Dem by election tactic are claiming that only their party “has a chance at toppling the Tories in Bromley & Chislehurst: a vote for Labour or the Lib Dems is a sure way to return Bob Neill as Conservative MP.”
The significance of Bromley will not be the result but the size of the Tory vote. If the national opinion polls are right then David Cameron, in his first by election defence, should surely expect to see an increase in the share on the General Election. A late UKIP surge could undermine that and put the EU issue further up the Tory agenda.
A Heffer intervention on Monday, if that indeed is what is going to happen, might give Farage a late boost and also impede the Lib Dem campaign momentum that has been building up.
Labour, which came second last May, look set to see a big decline in vote share and possibly be forced into fourth place.
Meanwhile the 0.1/1 on the Tories looks like free money.
Mike Smithson
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Heffer himself is no great loss to the Party but more worrying is what this says about the latent disatisfaction out there.
I have spoken to several ordinary members and activists in my area who are deeply concerned with the direction in which David Cameron is leading us.
Personally, I’m prepared to give him some leeway but I admit to being worried that he will turn out like Blair was for Labour - someone with little time or interest in the values of his party.
As for Bromley, I still feel pretty comfortable that we should win with at least 55% of the vote, even after a small rise in the UKIP vote (I still think they will come 4th).
Certainly not. I doubt either that I will be alone among my colleagues in being glad to see the back of Mr Heffer, who is an embarrassment and a crank - he will be right at home with UKIP and they are welcome to him.
I can’t imagine this having any impact on the result whatever.
Further to that Mike - and apologies in advance for tacking against the spirit of the new order and being argumentative - but what evidence is there for the assertion that the Lib Dems are ‘building up campaign momentum’ ?
This certainly does not chime with the reports I’ve received from my contacts in the constituency.
It’s a funny old world where The Guardian is championing the leader of the Conservatives while the Daily Telegraph is knocking him.
I can’t remember the last time The Grauniad has positive thing to say about a Tory leader. No hang on a minute - I seem to remember them having positive things to say about Iain Duncan Smith’s social justice agenda. But perhaps then the Guardian’s warm words were rather *tactical*, as it were
Not sure I would be quite as bullish as my colleague Mr Matlock. As indicated above, Heffer himself is rather a maverick but I fear the impact of his defection will be to re-awaken some of the wider (and deeper) mutterings within our party.
Incidentally, am I alone in thinking a little of the early sure-footedness has disappeared from our leadership and mistakes are beginning to be made?
By way of example, what can we have been thinking when we allowed a one of the last remaining Europhiles in our party secure the Bromley and Chislehurst nomination? Surely someone should have had a ‘quiet word’ with the local association about that?
Although the liberals have been delivering many more leaflets than before, my assessment has been that at least 60% fo the vote is heading for the conservatives. Heffer’s loss (and a few others like him) will be no loss at all.
I am sure when people speak of contacts in the constituency one has to interpret this the same way as you all talk of polls and the validity. It all depends on the reposne to constituency on the issues that matter to them >genuinely I would think that peopel are fed up with teh way politics is performed by all parties
Harvey - I agree with the setiment on Heffer, but when do we draw the line?
My Association has seen 3 long-standing amd valued activists scale back their involvement over the last six months. Of course some of this is ‘churn’ and we have recruited new members (including at least two gentlemen who had been Labour members) but I’m not sure the latter make up for the experience of the former.
On the bright side, your news from Bromley is very encouraging. 60pc next Thirsday would go some way towards allaying my fears about the current direction of the Party.
8 We have lost one or two people (and two concillors are reported to have met with UKIP) but if we are going to be seen as a future government we know we need to clean the party up.
Eleanor said “we have recruited new members (including at least two gentlemen who had been Labour members)”
I remember something similar from the heady days of being a Labour party member in the mid 1990s. My flat mate made the straight switch from Tory to Labour, which I always found very odd, seeing as he had no affinity for/background in the party.
Sure enough, many of these fair-weather members didn’t last the course and just became non-renewers. They certainly didn’t lift a finger to help in elections.
I don’t think any of these types are left in my old CLP - it’s still run by the same types who were there in the pre-Blair days - and they’ll still be there when he eventually goes.
I left the party too - but for other reasons
As I understand it from a source, the Lib Dems are not expecting anything beyond a good 2nd place in Bromley. There’s no real impression that the campaign is going to make any more ground than that.
Who cares about Simon Heffer? Not me.
I was in Bromley on Wednesday, spending most of the day delivering in millionaire’s row in Chislehurst,including a half mile walk down a mud track to get to two farms!
Good feeling about the campaign, we do seem to be building momentum, and our attacks on the Tory candidate seem to be hitting home (not local, already got full-time jobs he won’t relinquish as mp) No-one seemed all that bothered about ukip though! They’re welcome to Simon Heffer if they want him.
A high profile defection or two *away* from Cameron may certainly start to make some top Tories nervous though….
Although I visit PB on a daily basis, I am rarely moved to comment. I find the idea, though, that the Conservatives are going to get 60% of the vote in Bromley laughable.
Odd tactics by UKIP - seemingly trying to clean up the anti Tory vote, rather than appeal to Tory switchers. Surely they’d have more success arguing “we stand for the values you believe in and the Tories have abandoned”? A public endorsement on Monday is silly too - far too late, they should do the endorsement immediately and spend the weekend leafletting like mad to make sure everyone knows about it.
12 - Yeah, let’s get upfront and personal on the candidate himself and revel in it. How wonderfully LibDem.
11 Most of us didn’t expect more than a good second place in Dunfermline either, right up until the declaration!
12. Who are “we”?
At South Staffs last year UKIP made a big effort. There were rumblings of third or even second place, they had come second with 26-28% in the Euro elections, but fourth it was, about 12% was it.
Bromley difference, nationally known candidate, understand lives locally and this time not up against a well respected sitting MP.
On paper should do better than South Staffs. However there they pulled votes from Labour. If Labour are mounting a low key campaign as Rennard implies, then there could be a switch to UKIP, perhaps mainly from Labour.
I would still put the Cons well, well ahead, Lib Dems second and UKIP third. Interesting betting, the Lib Dem price fluctuating, got down to 4-1, now heading back to 7s, UKIP at 60/66-1, that would be a good bet if they won, which they won’t.
I don’t think 60pc is unreaslistic, though personally would predict more like 55pc.
Bromley & Chislehurst must be in our top 20 safest seats in the country, surely?
15. Are you suggesting that if you see a weakness in an opponent you shouldn’t identify it as part of the campaign in the literature? It certainly would be a change in any parties tactics if they did so. It certainly isn’t a LD only trait. Both Labour and Tories do exactly the same. You seem to have a biased view.
Generally my view is you don’t mention your opponent as it only gives publicity. However if there is a weakness you think you shouild identify it would be ridiculous not to. After all what is the point of leafleting if not to convince people that you have the better candidate/policies.
18. Eighteenth safest. You should be getting about 70% if you were on course for a working majority. 60% would be good but not good enough to indicate a Tory government next time.
1 - I really don’t know why the Tories are worried about DC doing a Blair - he’s only trying to make the party APPEAR more centrist in order to win elections. There has actually been very little in the way of real evidence that he has abandoned the right-wing agenda that he ran with in the 2005 campaign - and he’s been a ‘moderniser’ for much longer than that.
DC’s agenda seems to be keep the right wing programme, but dress it up in nice clothes and focus on a few ‘nicer’ edges to change the image of the party - not the substance. The gamble he’s taking is that the party will realise nothing’s really changed before the elctorate do!
Remember - tory policies got good feedback in focus groups - until they were identified as tory policies - when most people rejected them. Change the image but keep the policies - that’s the Cameron agenda…
5 - Eleanor - on what basis do you assert that Bob Neill is a Europhile? Bob is a supporter of Cameron’s line on Europe and the EPP. He wants a community of trading nations not a Federal Europe.
I am not sure where this “he is a Europhile” has come from!
22. Where has this ‘Europhiles want a federal Europe’ come from?!
22 - Richard - I think Bob’s sympathies are pretty well known within the Party. He’s been pretty vocal as a pro-European and supported Ken Clarke both times when he ran for Leader.
Try http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Neill
“He is also a member of the EU’s Committee of the Regions[2], and a member of the Federalist EPP-ED (European People’s Party - European Democrats). A pro-european, he supported former Conservative Chancellor Kenneth Clarke in both of his bids for the leadership of the Conservative Party.”
Once again, the early birds get the best out of this site
Some very interesting points, not least the London obsession of our media - a Labour government stands to lose one of its safest seats in Wales and all we talk about (Our Genial Host included) is a by-election in a Tory stronghold in Greater London!
[12] Surely with the generous by-election expenses limits the Tories could afford to post leaflets to farms? Doesn’t sound like a very good use of voluntary labour to me…
[10] This is the basic problem for both Labour and Tory - people who are willing to give up (most of) their free time to political activity on their behalf do not have “centrist” views. (I suspect that there is still a majority inside the Tory membership for EU withdrawal, just as there is in Labour’s for the tax rates of the 1970s.) The irony is that elections are always won on “fair weather” votes - turnout, at least in GEs, has not yet fallen so far that Get Out the (bedrock) Vote can do it on its own.
More generally, the significance of Simon Heffer’s intervention (apart from some discreet pressure on the Telegraph to fire him, no doubt) is to point up the fact that if UKIP had the by-election machine of the Lib Dems they could seriously embarrass the Tories here. But they don’t, so they can’t - can they?
Heffer’s support will probably help UKIP a bit, but not by enough to make a huge difference to the result.
Other than that, I’d agree with Elanor’s observations.
15.”Yeah, let’s get upfront and personal on the candidate himself and revel in it.”
John, did I send you the link of what one of the independents has done?
Firstly - just because it on Wikipedia doesnt make it right! Secondly, supporting Ken Clarke doesnt make you a Europhile. Thirdly, even Dan Hannan is a member of the EPP at present! And finally, as a member of Bob’s campaign team and having discussed this with him at length yesterday, I can tell you that his views on Europe are pretty mainstream Tory. He is not a Europhile, but more of a pragmatic eurosceptic (with small E and small S) and I speak as an arch Eurosceptic.
I’ve no idea what’s happening in B&C so won’t hazard a guess. Not totally O/T, though, to pick up DC’s comments last night about where BNP and UKIP voters come from: I used to think that UKIP took votes from Tories and BNP from Labour, and like DC that in the absence of the minor parties both groups would vote Tory.
I still think that’s often true, but Cameron’s centrist positioning (we can debate how real it is) seems to have had some effect, and I think at least two thirds of them now abstain in this case. Most of these voters want to register an angry protest, and the perceived narrowing of the gap between the main parties makes them both seem unattractive for that. Some will even vote LibDem, as the traditional protest vote - not every UKIP/BNP voter is really motivated by race or Europe.
BTW I couldnt give a fig about Simon Heffer and who he chooses to endorse. To suggest that this will give UKIP some big boost is laughable. If it shifts 1% of the voting public in Bromley I would be amazed.
Good Morning all - I would agree with Rik here that the Heffer move will cause barely a ripple in Bromley . It would be more significant if it was part of a trend which I doubt .
Result from Lancaster DC Skerton West comfortable Labour hold
LAB 826 CON 336 BNP 220
Rik, do you advocate EU withdrawal?
I think there’s a danger of giving too much importance to people like Simon Heffer. I suspect the majority of voters in Bromley have never heard of him, and those that have are unlikely to care very much which party he is supporting.
31/32. I tend to agree with Mark and Rik. Heffer himself doesn’t make voters switching, but UKIP could gain something if the Heffer’s news manage to give them a decent coverage in the media.
Btw, has anyone seen Theresa May’s performance in the Commons yesterday? The Times described her as “a drunken best man in a wedding speech”.
Surely in the long term, losing people like Heffer can only benefit the Tories, since it makes them look more credible as a centrist party - just as Blair benefited from being criticised by the likes of Scargill in the mid ’90s. I don’t think Cameron will be losing any sleep over this. It will also probably damage Heffer rather more than it will help UKIP at Bromley.
30- Fair comment Nick and I do think the Conservatives are shedding a few votes on the right to these parties. However we are gaining more from the centre.
I have seen ballot papers in my time with all the names crossed out and BNP written in big letters on instead. I believe the motivation to punish Labour is greater than the support BNP/Ukip have for their policies from those who consider voting for them. Would a change of Government make a difference?
The best protest one can make at this time is to vote against Labour which is usually Conservative or Libdem depending where you are.
By election in Weymouth & Portland last night. Westham West ward Conservative gain from Lib Dem
Con 436 Lab 412 LD 340 Ind
2004 result: Con 301 Lab 487 447 LD 482 425
should have read Ind 58, sorry
Every vote lost to the Hefferlump is a dozen votes gained from the moderate centre.
I’ll leave assesments of Heffer’s influence on the Con/ukip vote to the Tories on this site who (ramping aside) clearly know more.
Viewing from the outside though two things come to mind
1. This could be just the sort of mini dust up that will do DC some good. locally it may do a little damage but nationally will imrove DC’s image further.(in a similar way Clare Short’s intevention yeseterday will probably help Brown rather than hinder ).
2.Could Heffer’s defection be ‘ahem’ sanctioned by the powers that be at the telegraph. Not yet a serious attack but part of a negotiation with Tory high command about certain policies that the Barclay Brothers want .
Cry Tax cuts and let slip the Heffer’s of war !
Rik at 29 - glad to hear you’re on the campaign team for Bromley. Is there much help from SC&WP Conservatives for the by-election campaign? And what’s your role - I couldn’t think of a better candidate’s minder than your good self!
33 - I dont advocate it but I have no problem with it.
42 - thank you kindly good sir! Forgive me if I dont post my role on a public forum but I am on the outer reaches of Bob’s team - lol. SCWPCA have already provided some help and more will be forthcoming!
If you want to email me I will give you more detail rik_w@blueyonder.co.uk
41.”in a similar way Clare Short’s intevention yeseterday will probably help Brown rather than hinder ).”
Crossland, posters here are under-estimating the Clare Short thing. Clare has never supported the winner in any Labour leadership or deputy leadership election. So it’s great for Gordon not to have her support anymore.
Cumbria CC Workington St Johns Labour hold
LAB 658
CON 430
IND 120
GRE 26
A very good result for Labour and bad for the Conservatives who hold all the seats in this ward on the District Council . This and tthe Lancaster result are indications that the Conservatives are not doing well in the North of England .
36 - You can never please everybody. Heffer’s views are probably shared by more of the public than are those of Arthur Scargill, however.
41 - Surely the “Brothers” should be more concerned at the (ex) Torygraph’s plumeting circulation, doubtless accentuated by such antediluvian columnists (sic) as Simon “Silly Moo” Heifer
28 - Andrea, No, don’t think so.
26 The result in BG is not going to tell us much we don’t already know about Labour’s unpopularity.
The result in B&C could tell us a lot about how strong Cameron’s momentum really is and how much the LDs are suffering because of the Minger.
Will the Tories improve on the General and end up with 55% or so? Will the Lib Dems manage a significant increase in their vote towards the 30% mark? The answers to these questions have far greater implications than the results in Wales.
48. John:
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/news/articles/2005-1794.html
After Book Value’s suspicions, an inquiry has been held and it has been excluded that Mr Hemming-Clark could be the lovechild of John Hemming and Helen Clark.
44 SCWPCA the Southern Counties Welsh Pony and Cob Association? http://www.scwpca.com
46. although to be fair I don’t think anyone expected a shock Tory breakthrough in Skerton!
The Tory party is better of without Heffer. And UKIP is better off with him.
I’m so confused about the Tories at the moment.
The modern “wets” do appear to be winning. Seems like the party is returning to a pre-Thatcher position.
Is this the case?
50 - Andrea, Thks. Sort of stuff we might have expected from the LibDems ;). They have form, don’t they!
51. The Libdems have made inroads in the SCWPCA too!
http://www.birchcourtstud.com/images/daddysboy.jpg
45.Andrea - She practically anounced it on cue.
I agree its very significant and looks to me like GB wants a contest and has provoked the left to challenge him.
He’s lining up a fight he will easily win to help remove any ‘roadblock to reform’ attacks the Tories will make.
Meacher/Short etc seem to have walked right into it.
Result Mid Devon Yeo Ward
LD Hold
LD 565 60%
Con 382 40%
So LDs doing well in part of the SW last night! Haven’t got last time’s result, but think this compares well. This ward is of course in the new Central Devon seat, where the Tories have just selected an A list candidate! Perhaps a Tory agent required!!?
52 True Valerie Skerton is a very Labour area but you would expect some improvement in vote share however small from last year’s GE performance .
57. Last time it was LD 639/439 Con 357/343
57 2003 results 2 seats LD 639/439 CON 357/343 As 1 Lib Dem candidate clearly had a significant personal vote not quite so easy to work out actual swing
Re 53, No one including Tony Blair or Gordon Brown is looking to turn the clock back that far.
35. Ok, here’s the clip of Theresa May’s “show”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolavconsole/ifs_news/hi/newsid_5100000/newsid_5107600/nb_rm_5107628.stm
I wasn’t aware that Heffer had any support to withdraw, but I can’t say I’ll be shedding any tears.
RE 62 Thank you very funny.
38. Very good result at Weymouth, a 10% swing on only slightly reduced turnout. This builds on the success of the recent local elections and is very promising for the Sth Dorset seat - the weak Tory performance in Weymouth has crippled attempts to win this seat back even though support has hardened up in the rural part of the seat. Good result at Swanage South recently as well.
You say:
In the seat UKIP are claiming that an internet poll is showing support of 22%
But they say at http://www.ukipbromley.com/main.htm “latest internal poll figures show UKIP in a strong second place with over 22% of the vote” i.e. totally unproveable internally manufactured figures from unrepresentative canvassing with a fiddle factor. The internet poll of whether people want Bob Neil as their MP is far more credible - run by a local paper, 80-90% say they don’t want Bob Neill.
Re Bromley would expect UKIP to poll reasonably,picking up some of Eric Forths personal vote and some dissaffected Labour.
Hav enot bben to Bromley so hav enio idea how camaoign is going.
However a method of calclating is
National swings since 2005 Con +4,Lib -2 Lab -2
Loss of Personal Vote Con -5 UKIP+5
BY election Anti Labour Con +2 Lib +6 Lab-10 Ukip+2
Result v 2005 Con +1 Lib +4 Lab -12 Ukip +7
Total Vote Con 52 Lib 24 Lab 10 Ukip 10 Oth3
Persoanlly I think that with aggogd candidate in Nick Farage Ukip could do a bit betterat th eexpens eof both Con and LIb so final forecast is
con 50 Lib 22 Lab 10 Ukip 14 oTh 3
Time for a competition Mike?
Roger H
65. But Labour isn’t collapsing either. IIRC there was a by-election in a SD ward a couple of weeks ago and Labour managed not to collapse there too (even if they already were in third place)
The Weymouth result is very pleasing considering we were in third place and presumably subject to a bar-chart barrage showing this!
61 I’d didn’t mean in terms of turing the clock back. If the Tories have three key traditions.
1) Non ideological conservatism (small c) with a “one nation” consensus. Paternal, pillars of the community type approach. If it ain’t broke dont fix it.
2) Free Market Liberalism. Laissez-faire. Milton Friedman and all
that.
3) Social Conervatism, Christian Family values. GW Bush type stuff. Maybe back to basics…
Cameron seems to be focussed on (1) than (2) or (3). And isn’t (1) the focus of Toryism pre Thatch.
Is this true?
Off topic, this is what the Americans War on Terror means in reality:
http://www.killsometime.com/video/video.asp?ID=138
Tragic or funny, I’m not sure which.
65 Hi Fred Yes I agree a good result for your party and with your swing figure . On the Antony Little method of calculating swing it would be 20% LOL
Anyone who annoys Heffer is clearly doing something right, I would post my views on the man but it wouldn’t chime well with the new spirit of niceness on here.
Andrea - you do realise that the phrase ‘come on Alan’ could be read in at least one other way than as a statement of encouragement?
73. Ukpaul, no, I haven’t realized it.
How can also be read?
71. Just watched it again. Definitely tragic.
Can anyone do a graph showing the DT’s sales figures since Heffer joined vs the Cons % in polls since DC joined ? I think it would look like a saltire
Simon Heffer endorsing UKIP is excellant news for the conservatives.
77 - hmmm. I don’t think it’s especially bad news for the Tories - Cameron needs to antagonise his Euro-hating right-wing if he wants to check to the centre. But free publicity for Ukip days before a by-election surely can’t be classed as “excellent news”?
Marcus @ 75: do you agree with David Cameron’s views here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5108584.stm
then?
68. Andrea - Labour’s vote in SD is heavily centred in Weymouth - their presence in the rural part of the seat is rather more limited. Their vote in this byelection was down 5% from 2004, and at the locals was down a similar amount, with most of that going to the Tories. If repeated at a GE, that would be curtains for Jim Knight. So I do think the trends are pretty positive from a Conservative point of view.
RE 70, Apart from the paternalistic bit, what in one is not Thatcherite? The comment I would make is that when Thatcher came to power so many things were obviously broken.
As to pre Thatcher days there was a wing of the party that alledgedly took the view that we could not stop or reverse the slide in to socialism only slow it down. We still have not gone back to that view.
80. Oh, Fred, I’m not saying it’s good for them, but not totally disastrous (even if on reflection 5% down from 2004- a bad year for them- is quite bad). Reading posts from some tories here, Labour should be in a total meltdown in the south (IIRC there were predictions that they won’t hold any single seat in the south).
74 - It could be read as a request that others complete a sexual act all over the unsuspecting Mr Simpson!
Personally I wish they’d do the same all over Simon Heffer.
(I hope that’s clear, I didn’t want to be too graphic!)
78.”But free publicity for Ukip days before a by-election surely can’t be classed as “excellent news”?” I think this is excellent “free publicity” for the conservative party rather than UKIP.
83.
I know that Simpson has been voted as the sexiest MP in Nottinghamshire defeating “none of them”, but I didn’t want to encourage assaults on him!
80 - Jim Knight is a formidable operator and popular MP with two swings against the tide to his name in successive elections. It will not be easy to winkle him out but will be interesting anyway.
86. well, but with a (auto-censured) opponent last year!
70- Thats how i view Camerons current position also - a One nation Tory.
We do seem to have had two periods of Consensus ( BUTSKILLISM - 45 - late 70) a breakdown and clearer split between Lab/con in (73-83)and then another consensus in Thatcher/Blair.(94-?
I guess most people in the 25-70 range are so close to the 70’s and 80’s that it has shaped our view of what is ‘normal’ politically.However the similarity between the major parties may be more ‘normal’ than the ideological divides of the 70’s and early 80’s.
as Hegel and later Mr Marx argued - Thesis,antithesis- synthesis.
In a curious way Blair and Brown came out of the atlanticist labour Right tradition that has its roots in people like Gaitskill and Cameron may well be drawing on his own parties figures like Butler - Back to Butskillism again
84 - in Bromley & Chislehurst, I should think there are quite a lot of people who share Simon Heffer’s world outlook, so this is hardly “excellent news” for the Conservatives. I don’t expect it to make a huge amount of difference to the result though (maybe an extra one or two per cent for UKIP).
Sorry I meant Butskellism 45 - late 60’s
88 - I think that most people on the Left grudgingly accept that capitalism “works” - so why kill off the goose that lays so many golden eggs? Provided that business and individuals can be taxed and regulated to just below the point at which economic activity becomes pointless, the Left can be fairly happy.
At the same time, the Left can pursue its social objectives in power.
So the current “Butskellite” consensus is that mainstream politicians accept that capitalism is here to stay - but with high levels of taxation and regulation - and that the Left holds sway in terms of social policy. If not the New Jerusalem, I’d say that’s not a bad position for the Left to be in.
Three Rogers! Oh dear!
Interesting to compare Claire Shorts denunciation of Gordon brown with Simon Heffer’s of Cameronism; To a non Tory Heffer always seems the archetypal Tory. Representative of the ‘hang ‘em flog ‘em’ party membership and a large part of their middle-England votership.
But he’s also a symbol of why so many on the center/ center left have no time for the Tory party. Perhaps this could in the future become the fight for the party’s soul. As I see it in that contest in the longer term there can be only one winner.
Claire S by contrast is disliked by many and her support even within the Labour party is minimal. An excellent enemy to have for someone wanting to show leadership without any danger of losing support
80. FYI Andrea in the Swanage byelection I think you were referring to Labour’s vote was down 4% on 2004 as well, the Tories up 9%. The Tory vote share rise is flattered by the independent who stood in 2004 not having contested the seat this time but the drop in Labour’s vote is clear again.
With regard to you wider point I think there is a real risk Labour will be reduced to just a handful of seats in the South ex London next time. In many of the seats they currently hold they are holding on with very slim majorities.
91-well put !
I guess we argue over what is a ‘high’ level of tax and how best to deliver social policy ( State,private or volunteer ? )
57 - That was a totally predictable result in a ward where the Tories have never performed very well and where the Lib Dem’s candidate was more, importantly, more local. I think you’ll be rather dissapointed if you think it will spell the end for the Conservatives in Central Devon
As for Skerton in Lancaster, well seeing as it’s probably the roughest place in the town (and I mean rough - I heard there’s a group of chavs who shoot students with a BB Gun out there!) and that the local Tories barely put any effort into the ward at all, I am not surprised Labour held it comfortably; especially as they put a fair amount of work into the ward as well.
93. Fred, I was referring to Swanage, but forget it…..I recall there was no swing, but after having checked, I realized that yes, there was almost no swing compared to last month!
Sorry….I should go back in the dark room.
While there have been a few tweaks, essentially the ‘new’ Butskellism is vintage Thatcherism.
91- Its also why I have my doubts about Cameron being a wolf in sheeps clothing.
I dont think he can afford to be, If he joins the consensus and gains power then he has to stay there or lose power.
RE 98 What consensus? The one that says we have some services payed for by the state? That has been our position since the welfare state.
On the other hand on law and order I see no consensus on locking up “suspects” just to make the detection rates look better.
98 - yet Tony Blair’s government has been a good deal more left-wing in practice than its rhetoric would suggest. However, they benefit from the assistance of a civil service, judiciary, and senior public sector that is left wing in outlook (often more Left-Wing than the Government).
That would make it difficult for a future Conservative government to be more Right wing than its rhetoric suggests.
Re Teressa May’s speech - I thought it was excellent, particularly her expression when Jack Straw refered to her age - she seemed a good sport.
Re Weymouth result. Some of you have idnetified this as a good result for the Tories. I can not see how anyone can extrapolate much from this as looking at the previous result only one Tory stood in a 2 vacancy election, consequently you are not comparing like with like. In multi candidate elections voters do all sorts of (occasional weird!) variations of voting, but one thing that is consistent is if you don’t put up a full slate some of your supporters will use their spare vote to vote for another party’s candidate. So some/many Tory voters would have used their spare vote to vote Lab to keep the LDs out LD to keep Lab out or just for another candidate that they thought looked like they would do a good job. Consequently it is likely that the Lab/LD vote last time was higher than it would have been if there had been 2 Tories. Of course in the by election this issue did not arise.
With the current electoral system in multi candidate wards you are at a disadvantage if you do not have a full slate.
To Rik and others. Re previous discussions about Bob Neill’s views on Europe. From today’s Bromley Times:
“On the European issue the former Ken Clarke supporter says he now describes himself as “Euro-disillusioned”, in favour of free trade but against a single currency, the constitution and any “federalist agenda”.”
101 - Re Weymouth , what you say of multi member wards is true but you also have to take account of the fact that only roughly 90% of the voters use all their available votes even when they have a full slate of their prefferred party .
103. Yes I agree some deliberately won’t use all their vote for valid resons and some don’t realise they have multiple votes. I’ve seen some pretty interesting combinations of votes at the count!
The attraction of Cameron is in part that he has rediscovered old fashioned Toryism (Part (1) of my 70 post). Alot of people are very comfortable with that kind of “non ideological” conservative (small c) government. The lack of key policies/reforms is the cornerstone of this.
The problem I have is that I am genuinely not sure that it’s the right thing for Britain at the moment. Do we need to let the dust settle for a bit or should we embark on more pluralist reform in the corporate and public sector? The sort of thing that Labour is struggling with.
I think people are dreaming if they think Cameron is ‘pre-Thatcher’ - a one Nation Tory a la Macmillan or whatever.
No, Cameron is not ‘pre-Thatcher’, he is ‘post-Blair’ - i.e. he has realised that in a touchy-feely, politically pathetic, TV-and-Internet dominated era, presentation is at least as important as policy. So he is (rightly, to my mind) concentrating on presentation.
The avoidance of policy issues is also sensible when Blair is basically a Tory anyway, and has forced Labour to accept Thatcherite economics. In other words, in many areas there is no real argument as the Right has won. So why pick an argument?
In the areas where there are still heated arguments - foreign policy, Europe, etc - if you examine the minutiae you can see that Cameron is quite definitely to the right. But he is sensibly downplaying this, as it doesnt really matter yet. The important thing at the moment is just to be NICE and NOT BLAIR.
Cameron is no fool.
Whoops! That should read ‘politically apathetic’ not ‘politically pathetic’!
At least, I think it should…
89.”84 - in Bromley & Chislehurst, I should think there are quite a lot of people who share Simon Heffer’s world outlook, so this is hardly “excellent news” for the Conservatives.” I disagree Sean, I see Simon Heffer’s endorsement of UKIP as a positive news story for the conservative party nationwide. Part of the problem over the last few years has been the emphasis on right wing issues solely to shore up the vote in already safe tory seats in the South of England.
We have still lost votes to UKIP and we must accept that we will continue to do so. But if we are to make any serious attempt to overturn Labour’s majority at the next GE we must attract large amounts of previously labour,libdem and none of the above voter’s to switch to the tories.
I think that the views of people like Simon Heffer have seriously damaged any tory revival north of the border over the last few years. I still think the UK wide perception of the main political parties effects the way people vote in either the local Scottish or Westminster elections. Just look at the Dunfermline by election result, was it a message to Jack McConnell or Tony Blair and Gordon Brown?
david(s) at 17: ‘we’ are the Lib Dems.
John O at 15: The literature I was delivering was very good stuff about our candidate, his background, interests and priorities. There is an element of attacking the Conservative candidate however, this is presumably because the individual has more weaknesses than the party. Associating the Tory candidate with Eric Forth and David Cameron is probably not a good move; explaining why he would not make a particularly good MP for Bromley seems to be fair game to me.
And Innocent Abroad at 26: I *enjoyed* my walk down to the farms, hadn’t realised I was getting a day in the countryside when I went to help the campaign! It’s a Bromley bonus!
00- But don’t all political parties think the ‘establishment ‘ and civil service is ideologically against them ?
Nu labour’s use of ’special advisers’ from 97 onwards was arguably to circumvent and bypass what was percieved to be a pro tory civil service. Blair’s increasing use of ‘delivery units’ etc seems to fall into that mind set that “the Beaurocracy is against us”
Andrea @ 102. Are you the Andrea from Italy that Dad chats to or a different Andrea from UK? Until yesterday I hadn’t visited the site more than twice in the past year.
I think that much of the “establishment” is anti-Labour, Crossland, but anti-Labour in the sense of attacking it from the Left rather than the Right. That is actually pretty helpful for Labour, as it makes them appear centrist by comparison.
For example, almost every attack on Labour by the judiciary is from the Left. Back in the Sixties and Seventies, the judiciary would have attacked Labour from the Right (albeit, judges were more reluctant then to challenge governments).
00 -”That would make it difficult for a future Conservative government to be more Right wing than its rhetoric suggests”
I’ve reread you post and pretty much agree .
What you argue above is true for Social policy whereas I would say the converse is the case for Labour and Economic policy.( CBI,City etc tends to be more rightwing)
110 I am not sure that is the case. I can understand how you feel though coming from the right. There are definitely voices in the establishment pushing the govt towards the right as well. Top up fees from the Ivy league are an example.
Although by definition in general I think the establishment pulls government towards the status quo.
I just about believe the “establishment” exists today, but I wish I understood it better.
RE 105, Jonathan, One of the problems of the current government is “perpetual reform” never allowing anyone to tell if the last reform worked or indeed allowing the last reform the chance to work. In that sense reform of the public services needs a step back, a good think, then a reform package which is given a chance. We will see if that happens.
RE 110, Sean, The judges are only attacking the government from the left because they are so far to the right (in terms of being authoratarian, and magna carta etc) that there is no room to the right of this government. If you think that there is I would like to know where it is.
Obviously to win the next election you are going to need to attract previous Lib dem, labour and other voters but I don’t know why you should assume that the Tory voters of last time are already in the bag? There must be 25% of voters who COULD change their mind from last time. Though previous Lib Dems voters would seem the most volatile in the same way labour lost it’s ‘left’ to the Lib dems Greens and abstainers last time I can equally see the “Essex taxi driver” vote abandoning the Tories and staying at home
I don’t agree Benedict. It’s inconceivable that judges like Denning, Goddard, or Devlin would have disagreed with a Home Secretary who wished to deport someone, against whom there was strong evidence of involvement in terrorism, to his country of origin. They would have ridiculed Lord Hoffman’s view, in the case of the Belmarsh detainees, that it was unjust to treat foreign nationals differently from British nationals.
Re 38, Living in Weymouth can I just point out that the (successful) Tory Candidate in the by-election was the former MP Ian Bruce. The Lib Dem candidate was previously a councillor in the ward and the Labour candidate was a 26 year old newcomer who actually looked about 12!
RE 116, Go look at Lord Somersets Judgement of the 18C, where a “foreigner” (slave as it happens) was afforded the same rights as anyone else. (I.E. now he is on English soil, you can’t detain him without a body of evidence, or habeas corpus)
I really can’t agree with you Sean. Denning, Goddard, and Devlin made their names by standing up to Governments. The only difference was that the Governments used to accept their adjudication. Since Michael Howard became HS this no longer applied.
109. Kinkell, yes, I’m that Andrea.
Alan Simpson got the backing of his local CLP
http://www.thisisnottingham.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=133965&command=displayContent&sourceNode=133948&contentPK=14743464&moduleName=InternalSearch&formname=sidebarsearch
Christine Shawcroft said the CLP didn’t get Jacquie Smith’s letter and if they get it, they’ll invite Smith to Nottingham to discuss her concerns.
I think any party that can count on the support of Simon Heffer needs a reality check. Anyone supporting him should read his articles! Apart from the tone of being highly pompous and pontificating (which by the way is all he ever does), he is also a rabid class warrior, albeit for the middle classes or so he would have you believe. He would be an immense loss if he was articulate but I guess if he was, he wouldn’t be some journalist but a leading MP, like Enoch Powell was - a man who actually did influence politics and policies. I am very doubtful Heffer will have an impact, how many people read the Telegraph and then consider how many of those people read his articles and then further more, consider how few those people would live in Bromley then you have a realistic idea of his influence - very little.
Don’t forget how damaged UKIP is from the Kilroy Silk’s departure, they have lost a lot of publicity (plus the little they’ve had isn’t positive) and credibility. Has anyone heard Joan Collins saying she supports UKIP anymore? Well exactly…The maximum they would get is 10% in Bromley, but I suspect it would be less, how much less we’ll see! Good news about Heffer though, half the things he says are just so ignorant it’s beyond belief, but to be fair he isn’t the first journalist to detort facts and get his information wrong - it’s just amazing the Telegraph pays for such drivel.
109 - Kinkell - Welcome back albeit for only a brief foray (or should that be forage). Indeed he is but the same….Oh, yes ;). “Chats” is a charmingly prosaic description of their social interc*urse
SeanT would like it to be known that, following Nick Palmer’s request that he be banned from the site, he is now, indeed, being prevented from commenting.
No doubt NickP and others in the Ministry of Truth that is New Labour will consider this a triumph of censorship, and a benefit to polite discourse everywhere.
SeanT has asked me to say that he wonders if Nick Palmer and his ilk have heard of the old Roman phrase ‘they have made a desert and called it victory’.
He also would like to say a sincere and cheery farewell to all the nice people he’s met here, to Andrea and Sean F, to AHM and Jack W, to Tabman, Rik, Cookie, Icarus and Stodge, et al, as you obviously won’t be hearing from him any more.
Pip pip.
So, how long do you think it is before the Tories pull this web-page:
http://www.conservatives.com/libdems4cameron/information.html
which says that David Cameron agrees with the Lib Dems on Iraq, given his interview this evening saying, er…, he agrees with Tony Blair on Iraq:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5108584.stm
U-turn anyone?
Heffer is an an ass. He has called the whole Cameron thing wrongly from the start. He doesn’t seem to understand the wisdom of “when you are in a hole, first stop digging.” He prefers to make an ever greater fool of himself, and to isolate himself from intelligent right-of-centre debate.
110 - The Judiciary isn’t left (nor right), the problem are Labour’s policies on sentencing. Judges have no capacity to break guidelines on sentencing, as was the case in a number of recent cases. There is no point in knocking the judiciary constantly as left or right. You also seem to be unaware that the Crown Proscution Service is what Labour are politicising which is separate from judges completely!
Re 95. My wife was born in Skerton, raised in Skerton and until recently her mother still lived in a pleasant road of three bedroomed semis. There is a very nice park, what used to be a run down council estate which has been revitalised.Close by is the river and some expensive apartments.
She invites the “voice” to reflect on his description.
Participate into the Guido’s Caption Contest
The Cameron U-turn on Iraq is absolutely amazing. They haven´t by any chance missed out the word “not” from time to time in the latest report?
I can only suppose that this is part of his attempt to suck up the Bush regime. So it is not surprising that he feels the need to get back on message. After all, agreeing with the LibDems is very un-Blair-like, isnt it?
114. If the government is ‘right wing’ re. Magna Carta does that make King John’s barons early heroes of the liberatarian left? I have my doubts….
Andrea @ 120. OK. Cheers for keeping Dad out of trouble, most of the time.
John O @ 122.
Mum says Andrea is Dad’s online Italian mistress!
I’m only back for a few more weeks, but it’s nice to catch up on some of the old names from the election, and to see most are just the same.
128 - agreed. My gnereal view has been that Labour’s chameleon attacks have been wide of the mark. However, if Cameron continues to flip-flop like this *within the space of only a few months*, perhaps the reptile will start to come into its own.
It’s not as if Iraq is a minor issue; surely you’d think Cameron would have a consistent position between January and June of this year on the singlest biggest foreign policy question.
Funnily enough, he also seems to be wavering on another foreign policy issue, namely the commitment to withdraw from the EPP party in Brussels.
131 — what has Cameron changed about Iraq? The Tories supported invasion at the time and apparently still do.
132 - but as recently as January, in the Dunfermline by-election campaign, they were distributing a letter signed by “Dave” where he said he agreed with the Lib Dems on Iraq. Can’t have it both ways …
http://linlithgow-libdems.blogspot.com/2006/06/cameron-flip-flops-on-jonathan-ross.html
http://random-incident.journalspace.com/?entryid=386
RE 129, Fred, by the standards of the time, yes and no. More the libertarian right.
Kinkell, dont get too excited - Andrea is an Italian man!
Whilst your father is a strange being (based on the evidence of PB) - he is not that strange.
Has anyone thought that people quite people who can change their mind or flip flop. I reckon most people have changed their opinion on the Iraq war. Even some Lib Dems! So this will only make DC appear even more like one of us.
I told you so ideologues are so out of fashion today.
I just had another thought about the Cameron flip-flop over Iraq.
Way back at the time of the Dunfermlline byelection, he was starting to fall in the polls, wasn´t he? So the prospect of a hung Parliament after the next election loomed large. Obvious answer? Cuddle up to the Lib Dems and pretend to share their outlook and policies.
Now the Tories are going triumphalist, there is no longer any need to pretend to be a Lib Dem. So out goes his Lib Dem Iraq policy of four months ago and back he goes to to the stance of Duncan Smith and Howard.
Presumably he will in due course do the same with all his “cuddly” positioning.
130. Kinkell, which poster is your dad?
“132 - but as recently as January, in the Dunfermline by-election campaign, they were distributing a letter signed by “Dave” where he said he agreed with the Lib Dems on Iraq. Can’t have it both ways …” Can’t resist saying that the “having it both ways” has been a very successful tactic for the libdems.
119 - Undoubtedly they did stand up to the government on occasion. But they would generally have agreed with the government on national security issues, and they would have accepted a clear division of labour; politicians legislate - judges try cases based on such legislation. That distinction is now very blurred.
115,
Roger can`t see the “Essex Taxi driver” staying at home at the next election as the greater impetus, will be to get the present government out at all costs.
However this will quickly turn to great disillusion, in this type group, if Cameron as many think talks centrist,just to get elected, but once in power will revert to type, and show his right wing credentials.
If he actualy tries to keep all the new Liberal Conservsatives on board, and does what he says,then they surely will stay at home.
Personaly I would prefer this, but have my doubts that Cameron is centrist.
I certainly believed Blair in 97 was not left wing, could not say with the same surety that Cameron w`ont be, very right of centre.
Untrue, Chris D. Among Liberal Democrats there will usually be a minority who hold a diferent point of view from the majority. We respect that, so there may be some inconsistencies for you Tories to pounce on.
But for a party leader to say one thing, then the opposite and then go back to where he was before, all within the space of six months - that is quite another kettle of fish. What are we to believe about Cameron? Only that he is highly inconsistent, and will say anything to gain attention.
Not prime ministerial material I would say, wouldn´t you?
Icarus @ 135. Oh, Dad is strange, but in all the best ways, if that makes sense
Chris D @ 138. Dad posts as Jack W.
118 - the judiciary were quite willing to accept the internment of “aliens” during WWII.
43. Thanks Kinkell, so you will be a member of the Jacobite youth party then?
“…..He would be an immense loss if he was articulate but I guess if he was, he wouldn’t be some journalist but a leading MP, like Enoch Powell was….”
I’ve read it three times now Luke. Cive me a clue?