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Who’ll be the winners for Westminster & Cardiff?

June 27th, 2006

westminster-cardiff.jpg

    Test your skill in Double Carpet’s By-Election Competition

With this Thursday’s by-elections in outer London and South Wales presenting the parties with their first major tests at the ballot box since May’s local elections, you are invited to make your predictions for Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chislehurst, and put your punditry skills to the test against the rest of the politicalbetting.com readers.

To make for smooth running of the competition, please enter your predictions in the order set out below. For each party, you may make your predictions to one decimal place.

What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Independent (Dai Davies)

Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Trish Law (no party description)

Bromley & Chislehurst

Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UK Independence Party

The Scoring: Your score for each party will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result (regardless of whether you are under or over in your prediction). Thus if you predict the Lib Dems in Bromley to win 37.2% of the vote and they get 26.9%, your score is 10.3. Your scores will be added up for all fourteen predictions, and the entry with the lowest combined score is the overall winner.

The winning entries for the three individual by-elections will also be announced, and in the event of a tie for the overall competition, the player who has the best predictions for any individual by-election will be the winner.

Your entries should be posted by no later than 7pm on Wednesday 28th June, and in the event of any dispute, the competition organiser’s decision is final.

Paul Maggs (“Double Carpet”)

    This thread is for entries only. Please use the previous thread for comments on the competition and the by-election.


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85 comments to “Who’ll be the winners for Westminster & Cardiff?”

  1. “What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Independent (Dai Davies)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid 6%, Independent 44%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Trish Law (no party description)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 38%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid 4%, Trish Law 51%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UK Independence Party

    Conservative 49%, Labour 8%, Lib Dem 28%, UKIP 10%.

         by Sean Fear June 27th, 2006 at 6:06 pm

  2. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)
    Labour 40% Independent 35% Liberal Democrats 15% Plaid Cymru 10% Conservatives 5%

    Blaenau Gwent (Assembly)
    Independent 35% Labour 30% Liberal Democrats 20% Plaid Cymru 10% Conservatives 5%

    Bromley and Chislehurst (Westminster)
    Conservatives 45% Labour 10% Liberal Democrats 32% UKIP 8%

         by Harry Hayfield June 27th, 2006 at 6:15 pm

  3. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 43%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent (Dai Davies)43%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 39%, Lib Dem 3%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Trish Law (no party description)50%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 55%, Labour 15%, Lib Dem 20%, UK Independence Party 7%

         by Cllr Ben Redsell (Conservative) June 27th, 2006 at 6:20 pm

  4. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent (Dai Davies)48%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Trish Law (no party description)50%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 65%, Labour 10%, Lib Dem 15%, UK Independence Party 10%

         by Tabman June 27th, 2006 at 6:29 pm

  5. BG HoC

    Con 4 Lab 43 Lib 2 PC 5 Ind (DD) 46

    BG Assembly

    Con 4 Lab 35 Lib 3 PC 6 Ind (TL) 52

    Bromley

    Con 58 Lab 8 Lib Dem 20 ukip 8

         by Fred June 27th, 2006 at 6:36 pm

  6. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent (Dai Davies)43%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 6%, Labour 39%, Lib Dem 3%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Trish Law (no party description)48%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 58%, Labour 14%, Lib Dem 19%, UK Independence Party 7%

         by Harvey June 27th, 2006 at 6:41 pm

  7. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 43%, Lib Dem 8%, Plaid 5%, Independent 40%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 39%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid 4%, Trish Law 47%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 51%, Labour 7%, Lib Dem 28%, UKIP 14%.

         by Neil Benn June 27th, 2006 at 6:43 pm

  8. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid Cymru 6%, Independent (Dai Davies)40%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid Cymru 7%, Trish Law (no party description)45%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 53%, Labour 8%, Lib Dem 28%, UK Independence Party 9%

         by Dave H June 27th, 2006 at 6:52 pm

  9. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 5%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid 5%, Independent 42%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid 3%, Trish Law 52%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 60%, Labour 8%, Lib Dem 20%, UKIP 12%.

         by Oxonian June 27th, 2006 at 6:53 pm

  10. BG H of C Con 4 Lab 38 Lib 7 Plaid 6 Ind 44 OMRL 1
    BG WA …. Con 3 Lab 35 Lib 5 Plaid 8 Ind 49
    Bromley .. Con 55 Lab 6 Lib 26 UKIP 9 Others 4

         by Mark Senior June 27th, 2006 at 6:55 pm

  11. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 10%, Plaid 5%, Independent 40%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid 4%, Trish Law 45%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 50%, Labour 5%, Lib Dem 30%, UKIP 14%.

         by Terry Keen June 27th, 2006 at 6:55 pm

  12. “What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Independent (Dai Davies)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 40%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid 6%, Independent 46%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Trish Law (no party description)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 34%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid 4%, Trish Law 55%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UK Independence Party

    Conservative 65%, Labour 5%, Lib Dem 15%, UKIP 15%.

         by Eleanor June 27th, 2006 at 6:55 pm

  13. BG HoC

    Con 4 Lab 48 Lib 2 PC 5 Ind (DD) 41

    BG Assembly

    Con 4 Lab 45 Lib 3 PC 6 Ind (TL) 42

    Bromley

    Con 60 Lab 10 Lib Dem 18 ukip 12

         by Spartacus June 27th, 2006 at 6:57 pm

  14. BG H of C Con 8 Lab 44 Lib 2 Plaid 6 Ind 40

    BG WA …. Con 8 Lab 42 Lib 2 Plaid 6 Ind 42

    Bromley .. Con 62 Lab 12 Lib 16 UKIP 10

         by Radders June 27th, 2006 at 7:01 pm

  15. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 42.9%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent (Dai Davies)43.1%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 39%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid Cymru 6%, Trish Law (no party description) 46%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 57%, Labour 12%, Lib Dem 22%, UK Independence Party 9%

         by marcia June 27th, 2006 at 7:09 pm

  16. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 2%, Labour 49%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Independent (Dai Davies) 44%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 1%, Labour 46%, Lib Dem 3%, Plaid Cymru 0.5%, Trish Law (no party description) 49%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 47%, Labour 6%, Lib Dem 29%, UK Independence Party 12%

         by Kevin L June 27th, 2006 at 7:10 pm

  17. Blaenau Gwent Westminster
    Cons 2
    Lab 46
    Lib Dem 3
    Plaid 3
    Independant 47
    Blaenau Gwent Assembly
    Cons, 2
    Lab 43
    Lib Dem 3
    Plaid 3
    Trish Law 49
    Bromley
    Cons 42
    Lab 8
    Lib Dem 35
    UKIP 10

         by david(s) June 27th, 2006 at 7:15 pm

  18. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 6.0%; Labour 33.0%; Lib Dem 10.0%; Plaid Cymru 12.0%; Independent (Dai Davies)39.0%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3.0%; Labour 32.0%; Lib Dem 14.0%; Plaid Cymru 10.0%; Trish Law (no party description)41.0%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 61.0%; Labour 7.0%; Lib Dem 17.0%; UK Independence Party 15.0%

         by Don Jameson June 27th, 2006 at 7:24 pm

  19. BG Westminster Con 5, Lab 41, LD 7, PC 5, Ind (DD) 42

    BG WA Con 5, Lab 37, LD 7, PC 5, Ind (TL) 46

    B & C Con 46, Lab 7, LD 33, UKIP 11

         by david kendrick June 27th, 2006 at 7:26 pm

  20. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 45%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Independent (Dai Davies) 41%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid Cymru 3%, Trish Law (no party description) 47%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 49%, Labour 8%, Lib Dem 29%, UK Independence Party 7%

         by Sam June 27th, 2006 at 7:26 pm

  21. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 5%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid Cymru 6%, Dai Davies (Ind) 41%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 40%, Lib Dem 3%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Trish Law (Ind) 49%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 48%, Labour 7%, Lib Dem 30%, UK Independence Party 8%

    PS: The LibDems seem to have thrown a great deal at Bromley so I’m a bit nervous on that front, that said I’m naturally very cautious when it comes to the threat of LibDem in by-elections under any circumstances, with good reason on their past form :). But as things stand the seat should be a comfortable Conservative hold.

         by Ben June 27th, 2006 at 7:34 pm

  22. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 3, Labour 40, Lib Dem 6.5, Plaid Cymru 5.5, Independent 44(Dai Davies)

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3, Labour 35, Lib Dem 5.0, Plaid Cymru 5.5, Trish Law (no party description) 51.5

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 45, Labour 7, Lib Dem 38, UK Independence Party 10

         by ApRhys June 27th, 2006 at 8:00 pm

  23. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 43%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent 45%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 2%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Trish Law 53%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 62%, Labour 8%, Lib Dem 20%, UK Independence Party 10%

         by B. Kerswell June 27th, 2006 at 8:06 pm

  24. Blaenau Gwent (HoC)
    Con 4, Lab 45, LD 9, Plaid 4, Ind (Davies) 38

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con 3, Lab 41, LD 7, Plaid 3, Ind (Law) 46

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con 46, Lab 15, LD 24, UKIP 15

         by Kevin June 27th, 2006 at 8:25 pm

  25. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)
    Con 0, Lab 0, LD 0, PC 0, Ind 3, OMRLP 97

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)
    Con 5, Lab 38, LD 6, PC 3, Law 46

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con 0, Lab -17, LD 0, UKIP 17.3, OMRLP 99.7, Others 0

         by JohnLoony June 27th, 2006 at 8:44 pm

  26. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4.2%, Labour 41.7%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid 4%, Independent 44.5%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 38.5%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid 4%, Trish Law 46.5%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 50%, Labour 7.5%, Lib Dem 28%, UKIP 8%.

         by ukpaul June 27th, 2006 at 9:00 pm

  27. BG HC
    con 3 lab 39 lib dem 7 pc 4 ind 46

    BG WA
    con 4 lab 37 lib dem 7 pc 4 ind 47

    BC HC

    con 54 lab 17 lib dem 20 ukip 9

         by Peter Pigeon June 27th, 2006 at 9:09 pm

  28. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 5%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid Cymru 7%, Independent (Dai Davies) 39%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid Cymru 6%, Trish Law (no party description) 42%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 51%, Labour 5%, Lib Dem 29%, UK Independence Party 14%

         by Tim June 27th, 2006 at 9:11 pm

  29. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)
    Con 4.3%
    Lab 29.9%
    LD 3.4%
    PC 2.4%
    Ind 59.3%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)
    Con 7.6%
    Lab 24.7%
    LD 11.8%
    PC 6.0%
    Ind 48.6%

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con 56.0%
    Lab 20.8%
    LD 16.2%
    UKIP 3.7%

         by sometimes right June 27th, 2006 at 9:13 pm

  30. BG HC
    con 5 lab 42 lib dem 4 pc 4 ind 42

    BG WA
    con 4 lab 37 lib dem 7 pc 4 ind 46

    BC HC

    con 52 lab 7 lib dem 30 ukip 9

         by Flash Gordon June 27th, 2006 at 9:14 pm

  31. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 5
    Lab: 43
    LD: 6
    PC: 6
    Ind (DD): 40

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 2
    Lab: 39
    LD: 6
    PC: 6
    Ind (TL): 47

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 49
    Lab: 4
    LD: 26
    UKIP: 15
    (Oth: 6)

         by Ben June 27th, 2006 at 9:23 pm

  32. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 5
    Lab: 39
    LD: 7.5
    PC: 9
    Ind (DD): 39 to win
    Other (OMRLP): 0.5

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 5
    Lab: 29
    LD: 6
    PC: 6
    Ind (TL): 52
    Other (Green): 2

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 50
    Lab: 6
    LD: 25
    UKIP: 11
    (Oth: 8)

         by SBS June 27th, 2006 at 9:50 pm

  33. Blaenau Gwent (Commons): Con 9 Lab 43 LD 5 PC 6 Ind 37

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh): Con 8 Lab 40 LD 4 PC 5 Ind 43

    Bromley & Chislehurst: Con 57 Lab 12 LD 25 UKIP 6

         by James June 27th, 2006 at 9:50 pm

  34. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 5
    Lab: 39
    LD: 7.5
    PC: 9
    Ind (DD): 39 to win
    Other (OMRLP): 0.5

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 5
    Lab: 29
    LD: 6
    PC: 6
    Ind (TL): 52
    Other (Green): 2

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 50
    Lab: 6
    LD: 25
    UKIP: 11
    Oth: 8 - please note smiley on last post was unintentional!

         by SBS June 27th, 2006 at 9:52 pm

  35. Blaenau Gwent (HC)

    Con 2 Lab 48 LD 2 PC 2 Ind 46

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)

    Con 2 Lab 41 LD 2 PC 2 Ind 53

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Uninterested

         by Gwynfa June 27th, 2006 at 9:52 pm

  36. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 3.5%, Labour 40.5%, Lib Dem 8.5%, Plaid 4.5%, Independent 43%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 38%, Lib Dem 7.5%, Plaid 3.5%, Trish Law 47%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 52%, Labour 9%, Lib Dem 25%, UKIP 10%.

         by Anna June 27th, 2006 at 9:55 pm

  37. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 3
    Lab: 42
    LD: 3
    PC: 4
    Ind (DD): 47 to win

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 3
    Lab: 35
    LD: 3
    PC: 3
    Ind (TL): 54
    Other (Green): 2

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 50
    Lab: 8
    LD: 33
    UKIP: 9

         by Icarus June 27th, 2006 at 9:56 pm

  38. Blaenau Gwent (HoC)
    Lab 50
    Ind 37
    LD 5
    Con 4
    PC 3

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Ind 46
    Lab 39
    LD 5
    Con 5
    PC 3

    Brom & Chis
    Con 58
    LD 21
    UKIP 10
    Lab 9

         by David Herdson June 27th, 2006 at 10:10 pm

  39. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 45%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Independent (Dai Davies) 41%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid Cymru 3%, Trish Law (no party description) 47%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 45%, Labour 6%, Lib Dem 39%, UK Independence Party 5%

         by Park Town Boy June 27th, 2006 at 10:29 pm

  40. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 4
    Lab: 45
    LD: 5
    PC: 5
    Ind (DD): 41 to win

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 4
    Lab: 41
    LD: 4
    PC: 4
    Ind (TL): 45

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 51
    Lab: 8
    LD: 32
    UKIP: 9

         by Little Boy Blue June 27th, 2006 at 10:33 pm

  41. BG (HC)

    Con 5 Lab 40 LD 7 PC 6 Ind 41

    BG (WA)

    Con 5 Lab 35 LD 7 PC 6 Ind 47

    B&C

    Con 44 Lab 4 LD 23 UKIP 21

         by Andy June 27th, 2006 at 10:53 pm

  42. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?
    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)
    Conservative 5.2%, Labour 44.0%, Lib Dem 8.5%, Plaid Cymru 6.3%, Independent (Dai Davies) 36.0%
    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)
    Conservative 3.0%, Labour 36.0%, Lib Dem 5.5%, Plaid Cymru 4.0% Trish Law (no party description)51.5%
    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Conservative 48.8%, Labour11.8%, Lib Dem 16.8% UK Independence Party 17.2%

         by Vino June 27th, 2006 at 11:17 pm

  43. I think the two BG seats are officially too close to call…

    However my guess for Bromley (based on the mean of everyone else if that’s allowed) is:

    Con: 53.1%
    Lab: 8.5%
    LibD: 24.8%
    UKIP: 10.1%

         by Dan June 27th, 2006 at 11:18 pm

  44. BG (Hoc)

    Con. 4.5%; Lab. 43.3%; Lib D. 5.1%; Plaid 3.4%; Indep. 43.4%; (Oth 0.3%)

    BG (WA)

    Con. 4.5%; Lab. 38.3%; Lib D. 5.1%; Plaid 3.4%; Indep. 48.4%; (Oth 0.3%)

    B&C

    Con. 41.5%; Lab. 4.9%; Lib D. 33.1%; UKIP 19.7%; (Oth 0.8%)

         by Lennon June 27th, 2006 at 11:20 pm

  45. Oh I suppose I ought to make a prediction for the BGs

    Westminster:
    Con 5%
    Lab 42%
    Lib 5%
    Plaid 5%
    Ind 43%

    Cardiff
    Con 5%
    Lab 39%
    Lib 5%
    Plaid 5%
    Ind 46%

         by Dan June 27th, 2006 at 11:24 pm

  46. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 5.8
    Lab: 37.2
    LD: 6.4
    PC: 12.4
    Ind: 38.2

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 4.5
    Lab: 30.7
    LD: 5.1
    PC: 14
    Ind (TL): 45.7

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 46.7
    Lab: 10.4
    LD: 32.9
    UKIP: 8.7

         by HG June 27th, 2006 at 11:24 pm

  47. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 2.7%
    Lab: 44.8%
    LD: 7.1%
    PC: 4.2%
    Ind (DD): 41.1%

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 2.7%
    Lab: 37.8%
    LD: 5.9%
    PC: 4.6%
    Ind (TL): 48.1%

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 52.1%
    Lab: 11.7%
    LD: 25.1%
    UKIP: 9.6%

         by Ian Jones June 27th, 2006 at 11:25 pm

  48. Thks to 43, my B&C will indeed be:

    Con: 53.1%
    Lab: 8.5%
    LibD: 24.8%
    UKIP: 10.1%

    BG (Hofc)

    Ind 42, Lab 49, Con 3, LibDem 3, PC 2

    BG (Assembly)

    Ind 48, Lab 43, Con 3, LibDem 3, PC 2

         by John O June 27th, 2006 at 11:30 pm

  49. For what it’s worth:

    BG (westminster)
    Con 4.2%
    Lab 42.5%
    Lib 5.8%
    Plaid 5.2%
    Ind 42.2%

    BG (cardiff)
    Con 3.9%
    Lab 37.9%
    Lib 5.7%
    Plaid 4.7%
    Ind 47.5%

    Bromley
    Con 53.4%
    Lab 8.0%
    Lib 26.8%
    UKIP 10.4%

         by tpfkar June 27th, 2006 at 11:53 pm

  50. Blaenau Gwent: House of Commons
    Conservative, 4; Labour, 44; Liberal Democrat, 5; Plaid Cymru, 6; Independent (Dai Davies), 39

    Blaenau Gwent: Welsh Assembly
    Conservative, 4.5; Labour, 42; Liberal Democrat, 4.5; Plaid Cymru, 6.5; Trish Law, 40.5

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Conservative, 51; Labour, 9; Liberal Democrat, 27; UKIP, 10.5

         by Ian W June 28th, 2006 at 12:10 am

  51. BG - Westminster Seat:

    Con 6%
    Lab 41%
    Lib 5%
    Plaid 5%
    Ind 43%

    BG - Assembly Seat

    Con 4%
    Lab 37%
    Lib 4%
    Plaid 10%
    Trish Law 45%

    Bromley and Chislehurst:

    Con 55%
    Lib 26%
    Lab 9%
    UKIP 10%

         by A H Matlock June 28th, 2006 at 12:12 am

  52. BG - Westminster seat:
    Con 9.1%
    Lab 37.3%
    Lib Dem 9.6%
    Plaid 8.1%
    Ind 35.9%

    BG - Assembly seat :
    Con 7.1%
    Lab 34.8%
    Lib Dem 8.5%
    Plaid 7.3%
    Trish Law 42.3%

    Bromley & Chislehurst :
    Con 46.7%
    Lib Dem 36.8%
    UKIP 10.2%
    Lab 6.3%

         by Patrick C June 28th, 2006 at 12:38 am

  53. BG HoC
    Con 3.3, Lab 52.1, LD 4.5, PC 3.1, Ind 37

    BG WA
    Con 2.9, Lab 37.0, LD 4.0, PC 2.6, Law 53.5

    B&C
    Con 49, Lab 5, LD 32, UKIP 11

    Tchina

         by Tchina June 28th, 2006 at 12:48 am

  54. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative - 3%
    Labour - 37%
    Lib Dem - 6%
    Plaid Cymru - 9%
    Independent (Dai Davies) - 45%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative - 2%
    Labour - 32%
    Lib Dem - 3%
    Plaid Cymru - 5%
    Trish Law (no party description) - 58%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative - 56%
    Labour - 10%
    Lib Dem - 26%
    UK Independence Party - 8%

         by Gary Barford June 28th, 2006 at 1:08 am

  55. BG (West)

    Con 5%
    lab 36%
    LD 5%
    PC 5%
    Ind 49%

    BG (Welsh)

    Con 4%
    Lab 34%
    LD 4%
    PC 4%
    Trish 54%

    Bromley

    Con 45%
    LD 40%
    Lab 4%
    UKIP 6%

         by Archibald Schwarz June 28th, 2006 at 2:35 am

  56. bromley

    Con 41%

    Lib 38%

    Lab 7%

    UKIP 8%

    others 6%

    I know bromley and the people i know in Bromley are not voting their usual pattern. Many Tories like my father are voting UKIP and Liberal but my son and daughter and wife are voting for the Liberal chap, I am still undesided as yet, also many Labour voters are not sure what to do, im sure they will go Liberal or not vote at all. The Tories I know are not sure what to do, vote Tory or the Local Bromley

         by gary June 28th, 2006 at 2:43 am

  57. bromley

    Con 43%
    Lib 37%
    Lab 4%
    UKIP 12%
    others 4%

         by Piginthepoke June 28th, 2006 at 7:34 am

  58. bromley
    CON 56.7%
    LIB 27.0%
    LAB 9.9%
    UKIP 6.4%

    BLAENAU GWENT
    IND 54.9%
    LAB 22.2%
    LIB 10.4%
    PC 10.2%

         by Mark Goodair June 28th, 2006 at 8:09 am

  59. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative - 5%
    Labour - 41%
    Lib Dem - 6%
    Plaid Cymru - 9%
    Independent (Dai Davies) - 39%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative - 3%
    Labour - 42%
    Lib Dem - 3%
    Plaid Cymru - 5%
    Trish Law (no party description) - 47%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative - 59%
    Labour - 7%
    Lib Dem - 22%
    UK Independence Party - 12%

         by Chris June 28th, 2006 at 8:23 am

  60. Bromley : Con 55, LD 28, UKIP 11, Lab 6
    Blaenau Gwent (Westminster) : Lab 46, Ind 42, PC 5, LD 4, Con 3
    Blaenau Gwent (Assembly) : Ind 50, Lab 38, PC 5, LD 4, Con 3

    Did you ever think you’d see the day when every single person would be predicting a Labour defeat in Nye Bevan / Michael Foot’s old seat (for the Assembly seat at least)!

         by Jeremy S June 28th, 2006 at 8:57 am

  61. Blah, I don’t have a clue about BG, so I tried just to look silly.

    Blaenau Gwent (Westminster):

    Lab 44 Ind 40 LD 6 PC 4 Con 4

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Ind 44 Lab 40 PC 6 LD 5 Con 4

    Bromley:

    Con 50 LD 30 UKIP 11 Lab 8

         by Andrea June 28th, 2006 at 9:21 am

  62. BG HoC

    Con 4 Lab 45 Lib 2 PC 5 Ind (DD) 44

    BG Assembly

    Con 3 Lab 40 Lib 1 PC 4 Ind (TL) 52

    Bromley

    Con 49 Lab 4 Lib Dem 21 ukip 10

         by Russell June 28th, 2006 at 9:22 am

  63. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Con - 5%
    Lab 42%
    Lib 6%
    PC 4%
    Ind 43%

    Blaenau Gwent (welsh Assembley)

    Con 3%
    Lab 40%
    Lib 6%
    PC 6%
    Ind 45%

    Bromley

    Con 52%
    Lab 10%
    Lib 26%
    UKIP 10%

         by Pudsey June 28th, 2006 at 9:31 am

  64. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 5%, Labour 44%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid Cymru 6%, Independent (Dai Davies)40%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 6%, Labour 40%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Trish Law (no party description)45%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 59%, Labour 9%, Lib Dem 21%, UK Independence Party 11%

         by Andy T June 28th, 2006 at 9:38 am

  65. “What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Independent (Dai Davies)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 44%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid 6%, Independent 42%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Trish Law (no party description)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 34%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid 8%, Trish Law 48%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UK Independence Party

    Conservative 55%, Labour 5%, Lib Dem 28%, UKIP 12%.

         by crossland( usually a spelling mistake or two) June 28th, 2006 at 9:42 am

  66. BG Westminster Con 4.5, Lab 41.5, LD 8, PC 4, Ind (DD) 42

    BG WA Con 3, Lab 38, LD 5.5, PC 8, Ind (TL) 45.5

    B & C Con 46.5, Lab 4.5, LD 37, UKIP 12

         by Big Tall Tim June 28th, 2006 at 9:55 am

  67. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)
    Labour 47
    Dai Davies 37
    Lib Dem 6.5
    PLaid Cymru 6
    Tory 3
    Monster 0.5

    Blaenau Gwent (Assembly)
    Labour 42%
    Trish Law 47%
    Lib Dem 5%
    Plaid Cymru 3%
    Tory 3%

    Bromley
    Tory 49%
    Lib Dem 27%
    Ukip 18%
    Labour 6%

         by Clebryn June 28th, 2006 at 10:29 am

  68. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 6%, Labour 46%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent (Dai Davies)35%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 5%, Labour 44%, Lib Dem 5%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Trish Law (no party description)41%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 47%, Labour 15%, Lib Dem 28%, UK Independence Party 7%

         by pregethwr June 28th, 2006 at 10:36 am

  69. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)
    Labour 43
    Dai Davies 39
    Lib Dem 7
    PLaid Cymru 5
    Tory 4
    Monster 1

    Blaenau Gwent (Assembly)
    Labour 43%
    Trish Law 46%
    Lib Dem 5%
    Plaid Cymru 4%
    Tory 2%

    Bromley
    Tory 51%
    Lib Dem 25%
    Ukip 16%
    Labour 8%

         by Charlie June 28th, 2006 at 11:31 am

  70. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Independent (Dai Davies)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 49%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid 9%, Independent 32%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Trish Law (no party description)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 38%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid 4%, Trish Law 50%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UK Independence Party

    Conservative 51%, Labour 9%, Lib Dem 31%, UKIP 7%.

         by Alex Williams June 28th, 2006 at 11:38 am

  71. BG (HoC):
    Con 4, Lab 42, LD 6, PC 4, Ind 43

    BG (Assembly):
    Con 4, Lab 37, LD 5, PC 3, Trish Law 50

    Bromley:
    Con 48, Lab 9, LD 28, UKIP 9

         by Cookie June 28th, 2006 at 11:57 am

  72. “What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Independent (Dai Davies)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 43%, Lib Dem 6.5%, Plaid 5%, Independent 40.5%.

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Trish Law (no party description)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 35%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid 3.5%, Trish Law 52%.

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UK Independence Party

    Conservative 44%, Labour 7%, Lib Dem 31%, UKIP 12%

         by Yet Another David June 28th, 2006 at 12:03 pm

  73. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)

    Conservative - 1.7%
    Labour - 48.2%
    Lib Dem - 6.5%
    Plaid Cymru - 2.2%
    Independent (Dai Davies) - 40.9%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative - 2.5%
    Labour - 22.0%
    Lib Dem - 8.5%
    Plaid Cymru - 4.5%
    Trish Law (no party description) - 61.0%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative - 37.0%
    Labour - 9.5%
    Lib Dem - 37.5%
    UK Independence Party - 10.0%

         by Ian Ridley June 28th, 2006 at 12:51 pm

  74. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)
    Labour 45
    Dai Davies 37
    Lib Dem 6.5
    PLaid Cymru 6
    Tory 5
    Monster 0.5

    Blaenau Gwent (Assembly)
    Labour 41%
    Trish Law 47%
    Lib Dem 6%
    Plaid Cymru 2%
    Tory 4%

    Bromley
    Tory 44%
    Lib Dem 36%
    Ukip 11%
    Labour 9%

         by Wayne Bridges June 28th, 2006 at 2:57 pm

  75. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)

    Conservative - 4.1%
    Labour - 43.5%
    Lib Dem - 9.5%
    Plaid Cymru - 2.9%
    Independent (Dai Davies) - 42.5%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative - 4.1%
    Labour - 39.5%
    Lib Dem - 11.4%
    Plaid Cymru - 4.5%
    Trish Law (no party description) - 44.5%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative - 53.5%
    Labour - 7.5%
    Lib Dem - 34.5%
    UK Independence Party - 5.5%

         by Tory B June 28th, 2006 at 3:01 pm

  76. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative - 4.6%
    Labour - 42.1%
    Lib Dem - 6.9%
    Plaid Cymru - 1.3%
    Independent (Dai Davies) - 40.7%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative - 3.9%
    Labour - 41.4%
    Lib Dem - 5.7%
    Plaid Cymru - 1.1%
    Trish Law (no party description) - 46.7%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative - 42.2%
    Labour - 6.3%
    Lib Dem - 36.6%
    UK Independence Party - 10.3%

         by readlingliberal June 28th, 2006 at 3:04 pm

  77. Blaenau Gwent (Westminster)
    Labour 37.1.% Independent 37.2% Liberal Democrats 12% Plaid Cymru 8.6% Conservatives 4.8%

    Blaenau Gwent (Assembly)
    Independent 40% Labour 35% Liberal Democrats 10% Plaid Cymru 10% Conservatives 5%

    Bromley and Chislehurst (Westminster)
    Conservatives 55% Labour 10% Liberal Democrats 22% UKIP 8%

         by Benedict White June 28th, 2006 at 4:16 pm

  78. What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

    Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 43%, Lib Dem 3%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent (Dai Davies)45%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 5%, Labour 38%, Lib Dem 3%, Plaid Cymru 3%, Trish Law (no party description)51%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 55%, Labour 16%, Lib Dem 20%, UK Independence Party 6%

         by S Penketh June 28th, 2006 at 4:54 pm

  79. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 5%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid Cymru 5%, Independent (Dai Davies)42%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 43%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 3%, Trish Law (no party description)47%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 42%, Labour 16%, Lib Dem 31%, UK Independence Party 11%

    (Everyone of course has these adding up to 100% but there are a smattering of other independants!)

         by Chris Took June 28th, 2006 at 5:14 pm

  80. BG H of C. Con 5%, Lab 41%, Lib 4%, PC 4%, Ind 46%

    BG WA. Con 4%, Lab 37%, Lib 4%, PC 6%, Ind 49%

    Br& Ch. Con 53%, Lab 8%, Lib 24%, Ukip 9%

         by DC June 28th, 2006 at 5:27 pm

  81. Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

    Conservative 4%, Labour 50%, Lib Dem 7%, Plaid Cymru 4%, Independent (Dai Davies)35%

    Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

    Conservative 3%, Labour 46%, Lib Dem 4%, Plaid Cymru 3%, Trish Law (no party description)44%

    Bromley & Chislehurst

    Conservative 57%, Labour 11%, Lib Dem 25%, UK Independence Party 7%

         by Duncan June 28th, 2006 at 5:56 pm

  82. BG HOC LAB 43 IND 44 C 5 PC 8
    BG WA LAB 42 IND 45 C 6 PC 7
    B&C LAB 9 UKIP 12 C 45 LD 31 (Others 3)

         by Tory Boy June 28th, 2006 at 5:58 pm

  83. Blaenau Gwent (HC)
    Con: 3.9
    Lab: 45.0
    LD: 4.3
    PC: 5.2
    Ind: 41.6

    Blaenau Gwent (WA)
    Con: 2.9
    Lab: 43.5
    LD: 4.2
    PC: 5.2
    Ind (TL): 44.2

    Bromley & Chislehurst
    Con: 47.2
    Lab: 12.4
    LD: 23.9
    UKIP:13.9

         by PSW June 28th, 2006 at 6:01 pm

  84. 79. Who is this “everyone” who supposedly has them adding up to 100%? Not most of the predicions I’ve seen. And there is not a “smattering” of independents - there are only 2 in Bromley & Chislehurst.

    I won’t update my prediction because I have an unfair advantage (I have seen some of the PVs).

         by JohnLoony June 28th, 2006 at 9:19 pm

  85. BG (HoC)
    Con 8
    Labour 37
    LD 4
    Plaid 6
    Independent 45

    BG (WA)
    Con 6
    Lab 24
    LD 5
    Plaid 10
    Trish Law 55

    B&Ch
    Con 55
    Lab 10
    LD 30
    UKIP 5

    Bunged together very quickly. (get my excuses in).

         by Gavin (left-ish) June 28th, 2006 at 10:04 pm

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