Who’ll win the by-election spinning war?
June 29th, 2006
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Which party’s done best in “expectation management”?
So the polls are about to close, the counts will soon be starting and most normal people will be off to bed without any thought about the events during the day in Gwent and South East London.
Now the big question is how the electoral health of the parties will look after the spinners have done their “explaining” and the radio and TV news teams have decided how to present what’s happened. This is my summary.
Bad news for Labour will be failing to win back the Westminster seat in Blaneau Gwent. After huge effort and probably outspending their opponents many times over Labour desperately need a result.
Bad news for the Tories will be anything less than an emphatic victory in Bromley. A margin of 10% over whoever is in second place is needed at the minimum.
Bad news for the Lib Dems will be if the Tories are more than ten points ahead. They are the by-election Kings and there’s an expectation of exceptional performances. With significant a Labour vote there for the squeezing they should be biting at the Tories’ heels.
Bad news for Labour will be being reduced to a single figure vote share in Bromley. After all they were in second place only fourteen months ago. It will be even worse for Blair’s party if they are reduced to fourth place.
Bad news for UKIP will be not making a significant indent into the main three parties. They’ve had the Heffer-effect and one of their best known and most effective campaigners as candidate. UKIP needs a good result.
Bad news for me will be if the Lib Dems win in Bromley because I’ve got no money on.
Mike Smithson
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Me neither, Mike. but you are setting the bar exceptionally low for the Tories. Their majority last time was 25% plus. They should mainain this as an absolute minimum. There is no point creeping up to 38-39% in the opinion polls if this does not convert itself into real votes.
Labour voters are likely just to stay away in my opinion. And the Cameron “magic” clearly won’t be working if some labour voters do not switch to the Tories.
1.” Their majority last time was 25% plus.”
28.9% over Labour and 30.8% over the Libdems.
Anyway, polls closed and all has been already decided.
2. Btw, pb.com clock is always behind compared to mine!
Well the polls have closed…
Labour and the Lib Dems got 42.5% between them at the General Election - the Lib Dems should take the lion’s share of that tonight which is why I think our competition average was wrong.
I have finished my betfair betting £ 60 if Conservatives win £ 23 if Lib Dems win all from churning over a £ 2 initial stake .
It absolutely does not matter as long as the Tories win. Cameron is in a great situation. Bob Neill gets a thundering victory? Fine. Scrapes home due to LD dirty tricks and a few miscalculations? CCHQ’s A list maybe better idea than given credit for.
Lab is a possible victor if they do really well in BG. I can’t see this going wrong for the Tories any way up, unless they actually lose in a miraculously bad result.
The test of spin will be the results in the papers, ie how the stories are covered.
Or not according to the PB.com clock!
“Scrapes home due to LD dirty tricks and a few miscalculations?”
Pathetic.
1 - Peter, I know you’d like it to be different, but irrespective of what happens in Bromley it won’t alter the fact that we are ahead in the polls and won 300 council seats. I’m sure no one will seriously try to argue that the Bromley result will be indicitive of the national picture.
The idea that a poor result in Bromley means ‘Cameron isn’t working’ is laughable.
10. Whoever does well will undoubtedly try to argue that the Bromley result is indicitive of the national picture.
[7] More or less what I said the other day. Bromley seems to have been an accident-prone by-election even by by-election standards. FWIW the feeling in my water now is that Labour will lose both Blaenau Gwent seats…
11 - I’m sure they will. But I’m also sure they won’t back it up with money!
3 - Aren’t you in a different time zone Andrea? I know that Germany’s an hour ahead of us at the moment.
Does anyone know if any exit polls will be published?
14. ukpaul, yes, but I’ve already taken it into account. For ex I posted comment 2 at 23.02 of my computer clock, so it should have been 22.02 in UK….it seems there’s a 7 minute difference between my clock and pb.com one
15 - I have never known any exit polls to be produced for any parliamentary by-election in the last 13 years.
16 - Maybe it went missing somewhere over France.
Cameron, easily, the Hugh Grant of British politics, will win the spinning war, clear win in Bromley, Labour split in safe seat, the media agenda is already set.
However hope it doesn`t end the the same way as the actor.
I think that Cameron will do better than everyone expects, and even improve significantly in BG (but nowhere near being a contender, of course!).
Btw, on this site and other blogs people have been talking for a few weeks now about how important these by-elections will be for all 3 party leaders - but the press has barely mentioned this. Have they just forgotten? I wonder…
20 Max - if Cameron can’t win some votes from Labour you had better kick him out and start again. Read my post before you moan about it.
I know the Welsh are traditionally not big fans of things like Sunday drinking and gambling, but isn’t it staggering how little money has been put on the two BG byelections on Betfair? less than 5k matched on both.
If the Tories do better than expected in Bromley, Cameron will take the credit.
If they do worse than expected, the local party will get the blame.
#23 a more concise way of putting my #7 - exactly so.
Spotted today in the Champagne Bar of the Steward’s Enclosure at Henley: a very senior Tombstoner accompanied by a young lady!
His daughter? Did your boat win Tabbers?
25 Tabman. Well for at least one of them it might have been a young man …. nuff said.
I presume so, Icarus, I presume so. It would be very interesting if it wasn’t, but then he does have IIRC six offspring to choose from.
No rowing for me either - imbibing was my sport of choice this year.
28. Tabman, Ed Leigh?
Betfair is pointing towards a double win for BGPV against Labour. Interesting.
30-Probably due to Dragons Eye on BBC 1 Wales saying that, in postal votes, the BGPV were well ahead.
29 - Andrea, the very one!
32. Tabman, not many Cornerstone MPs personally tried to solve the birth rate problem!
31. Tim, any more info?
I gather from one source who’s talked to people on the ground today that BG does look unpromising for Labour. And yes, Labour’s not popular at the moment - no point in pretending anything else, though I think the polls (which show the same thing) are actually a better guide than BG as the circumstances are so specific to the constituency. I’m not inclined to feel desperate about it - it’s still early days before the next GE.
Thanks to ukpaul and Gladstone for their friendly comments on the last thread. Chatting idly (what else do we have to do till 2am?): I’m a small-l liberal on social issues and a small-s socialist on wealth distribution (nationally and internationally) issues, but I like the idea of a strong collective spirit a la Scandinavia/Switzerland and that tends to separate me from the libertarians.
One of the basic questions for anyone interested in politics is whether one’s willing to accept that one’s party isn’t perfect. I think one has to if one’s going to play at all (and one can’t do any good if one doesn’t), and I don’t think you’ll ever find a political home that you can work for enthusiastically if you don’t.
But having consciously done so, one can’t reasonably be too self-righteous about the other parties. I think Labour gets it right about 80% of the time, the LibDems 50% and the Tories 30%, but that reflects my priorities, and with different top priorities to mine (freedom of the individual or national pride, say) others would come to different views. I think we can be intensely competitive without being intolerant of each other.
Enough musing!
33 - Good for them too, Andrea!
Low birth rates across the developed world are going to become quite a serious problem for us over the next 50 years.
31. Dragon’s Eye is a dreadful programme which consistently fails to provide a lucid insight into anything of significance.
The cringeworthy ‘interview’ they just had on with Gordon Brown and the schoolchildren was typical of the dross they fill the programme with.
I would take any Dragon’s Eye tips about the state of play with the postal votes with a vat full of salt.
Andrea 33- no. Wayne david just on saying that there will be a ’swing back to Labour’ but no mention of winning. Trish Law looked happy, but too early to say.
Sky said it could be too close to call in BG….but they say it for every election.
35 AHM. So what are you doing about it !!
37. Thanks Tim.
Sky also said the Westminster seat will be declared first
39. Jack, he has 6 children!
Newsnight just quoted Chris Rennard “…LibDems have real chance of overturning Tory majority”!!
PC, LibDem and Con all facing lost deposits in BG.
35 - I’m reminded of a remark attributed to Groucho Marx:
Housewife: “I have seven children.”
Groucho: “Seven? That many?”
Housewife: “Well, I love my husband.”
Groucho: “I love my cigar, too, but I take it out once in a while.”
39 - I’ve already done my duty, Jack.
Is it just me or is the betfair market suspended?
42. Well he’s hardly likely to say “we don’t stand a chance as our campaign was built on a foundation of dirty tricks and double standards” is he?
47 - exactly. It wasn’t.
Does that mean that if the Tories win by any margin that the LibDems will be disappointed? Hasn’t Rennard just put the LibDem bar at either winning or just-falling-short?
41 Andrea. Only 6 !! ….. my understandind was that Alastair had given an undertaking to personally double the majority in Beaconsfield !!
News from Lincoln (if anyone cares!!)… Difficult by election battle in Moorland Ward for the defending Conservatives… Excellent hold with Oliver Peeke winning by 71 votes.
A just result after the BNP were going round making outlandish accusations about the resigning councillor during the campaign. They finished 3rd
No- I personally as a LD would be super-happy tonight if we came within 1 or 2 thousand votes. Wow- I wasn’t expecting that from Newsnight. Big shock if it is true.
42 - some sharp movements on Betfair within the past few minutes Colin, did anyone see them? The Tories suddenly shot out to 1.12 and the LDs backed as low as 8/1. A consequence of Mr Rennard’s optimistic assessment on Newsnight, I wonder?
Surely the Lib Dems haven’t taken Bromley!?! It would defy all logic if they were! Unbelievable.
Newsnight reporting that Rennard has just claimed that LDs are ‘ in with a real chance’ of taking the seat(after a preliminary look at ballot boxes) . I can’t quiite believe that but the LDs are clearly going to do pretty well. Labour apparently gloomy about beating UKIP. The two are obviously linked.
Can I just say that the only thing I can say against Mike Smithson is that he is a Liberal Democrat?
Apart from that almost every article I read of his I find enlightening, informative and very frequently spot on.
The only thing this site needs is a paypal donate button.
If these comments from Chris Rennard are true, they are significant.
Chris is normally quite careful as to what he says at counts. I remember in Hartlepool, knowing that the Lib Dems had lost when he said on Newsnight at a fairly early stage “we have come close but have not quite overturned Labour’s majority”.
There is no reason for him to talk things up at this point.
57. Maybe he has a bet on!
47- Limpdems losing here.
Lincoln/Moorland - go on, Antony, tell us more while we’re waiting. Why was it difficult and the result so close? Who was second? What are the full comparative figures?
Bromley: yes, hard to believe. But presumably they’ve come fairly close - Rennard won’t want to risk looking totally daft.
Newsnight also saying BG close…the market (and Nick P) says it’s all over.
There’s a lot of fluidity with the Liberal Democrat price for Bromley on Betfair. Half an hour ago, they were a long way out at 15 and now they’ve come racing in to 5.
51 Must have been a swing from Conservative to Labour from last month when majority was 186
I’ve just had word from the BG count where it looks that Labour could be having another kicking on both ballots
Last price matched on LD on betfair is 50 !?!
Did the Lib Dems finish second in Moorland (Lincoln DC) or was it Labour?
65 - I think that must be a misprint….
Conservatives back to 1.07 on Betfair, LDs at 6.
Night all … I got 6.2 on Bromley yesterday … invested some of my winnings from Dunfermline … we can but hope. What a strange day .. feet away from Teddy …
67 - Check the graph, not sure how that became the best price for a moment but there you go.
Do we have any moles in the Bromley count ?? Rik perhaps. I’m out of moles for this count I’m afraid.
wouldn’t read too much deep insight into Bromley Betfair price changes guys - it’s only me following in Newsnight advice for a muggy interest bet…
70 - shows up as £0, which means that only a few pennies will have been traded at that price, but even so I wish they’d been my pennies. In the same vein, both Labour and Others were laid to a few pence at 1000/1 (I know, because I laid it).
I am waiting for word!!! I am at home tonight.
From a very unofficial source- Trish and Dai doing very well. If that is total crap, I apologise. But likely to be true.
70 - Something weird going on there because the list then claims £0 matched at 50. Does that happen when somebody matches there own bet? Not sure. Still looks strongly Tory though but nobody surely ever suspected anything else (predistion contest confirms). If Rennard’s comment means it is even vaguely close it would be amazing.
74 Rik W. Ok Rik, cheers for that.
Your thoughts on today ??
Well, if true about BG (a major caveat), then I’d be interested to see if B&C also turns out to be a big kicking for the major parties.
77 - I think we will win with 45-50% as I have predicted all along. The Libs seem to have done quite well and UKIP much worse than I thought. BUT I have not heard from the count yet and dont wanna phone the candidate lol
Re: 34 “I’m not inclined to feel desperate about it - it’s still early days before the next GE.”
Have to say, Nick, this sort of comment should worry Lab members. There is a danger of Lab slipping into a ‘cannot win’ situation. I comment ’cause I was thinking this in relation to some of your posts before I went off on on World Cup leave.
(Surely you people haven’t been here all the time - take a break!)
79 Rik W. Appreciate that.
Backbiting already going on in the posts on the B/C thread on Conservativehome and the result not known yet .
Sky just reporting that Labour face “drubbing” in BG with Indies winning both seats.
Also UKIP pushed Labour into 4th place in Bromley.
My source at the count has confirmed that ‘it could be close’ between Lib Dems and Tories at Bromley.
Sky News: “Claims Labour may be 4th place in Bromley”
according to Sky, Indies ahead in BG and Lab fourth in Bromley
Sky News ALERT
Ind hold Blaenau Gwent (doesn’t say what level)
82 - Nonsense. You call that backbiting, Mark? It’s quality family time compared to what the Conservative Party has been through the past 15 years.
Both the Conservative and LD prices have eased out over the last few minutes, Neill from 1.07 to 1.1 and Abbotts from 6 to 6.4… but the amount matched is so small as to make any moves pretty much insignificant.
Sorry folks, I’m off to watch my vidioed episode of eastenders, I cant take this any more.
I will obviously be up for the declaration…
82 - My what an interesting imagination you have.
If you think that’s backbiting, you should have seen the muck being flung around after Ken Clarke’s comments the other day.
Fair enough AH , we in the Lib Dems are used to being in a united party LOL
FYI I just moved the market with £5
92 - The smaller ones generally are
Strange…someone just put small bet on Lab @ 3 on Betfair. Uninformed punter or SKY wrong to be certain??
Another intriguing night of by-election results it seems. There just seems to have been no impetus driving the Lib Dem campaign from what I’ve read, so them even getting close to winning would be a major surprise in my opinion. However the task then after a possible good result is building on that momentum, which I’m not sure they did after the Dunfermline result.
76 - Might be someone “greening up”.
91 - Quite right, Daniel. We Tories love a frank argument, and it needn’t necessarily be with our opponents.
94 How can I get those smiley thingies in my posts LOL
Has there been any indication yet as to when Bromley may declare?
Martin at 80: obviously I’d like us to be doing better, but I’ve seen so many peaks and troughs over the years that I think we need to be hardened to bad periods - the press would like us to get into a ‘one more bit of bad news and we’re doomed’ state of mind, which really is not borne out by all the historical parallels.
Labour @ 3 seems to have disappeared now
95. Martin, people were betting on Labour during Dunfermline declaration….but maybe the punters are right this time
100 Nick P. You have to say “doomed” in a Scots accent to get te full effect. Like this :
Doomed , doomed , you’re all doomed !! … Easy when you know how.
Oh yeh…
Anyone else understand the motivation behind the Guardian allowing Ed Vaizey a full on attack at the Lib Dems yesterday?
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,1807713,00.html
Hi everyone. Just got in from work and scanned through all the posts today. really insightful stuff and honest posts left right and centre, much appreciated, especially those of you helping on polling day.
Do we know when the results are due in? As a LD who spent two days in bromley, although I could see the campaign was going in the right direction, I would be delighted and amazed if we were really giving the Tories a nervous evening. They were always the hot favourites. BG, interesting post earlier about SO Davies, I really thought Labour would get this back. Am I beginning to feel sorry for Labour? I must be tired!
Re 100 OK, ‘doomed’ would be wrong and a ridiculously dangerous frame of mind to get into. But I read the tides rather differently to you.
Is any of this speculation based on knowledge, or just educated guesswork? I might go to bed now… is there anything on its way worth staying up for?
I’ve come back from Bromley. I knocked on doors in two wards (Chislehurst, and Plaistow & Sundrise). Overall, the response seemed positive for the Tories - not just pledges saying they’d voted (which is what you’d expect) but lots of expressions of good wishes. I don’t *think* another Christchurch is on the cards, and the worst I expect (from what Chris Rennard is saying) is that it will be a bit tighter than we might have expected.
One thing I noticed was how many of our pledges had already voted by post. As it’s never been a marginal seat, I doubt if the Lib Dems have got all that many postal votes signed up.
The lack of tv coverage is quite frustrating.
Martin: email me if you like for a private chat - I’m a bit constrained in what I post! NickMP1@aol.com
Mark - someone may have beaten me - but to get a smiley write : - ) all together i.e.
For a wink ; - ) i.e. 
for shock : shock : i.e. 
and rolling eyes : roll : i.e. 
oh and sad face : - ( i.e. 
It is endless fun.
By the way everyone - Bt are SH 1 T hence three weeks without internet just because we moved three hundred yards down the road.
108 - Hi Sean , someone but I cannot remember who said that the number of postal votes was well down on the GE .
Re 110. Thanks…will take you up on that at later date, as having a month off thinking politics (by-election tonight excepted, obviously!).
Just heard from my source at the count that a recount is possible…
114: Where?
114. it looks like I won’t sleep tonight…..
114 - Which count, Dan?
115 JA. Bromley.
14 - I want to get some sleep. Might have to give it a miss then.
Do 114/118 mean B&C recount speculation is double-sourced?
QT was a laugh tonight!
Alex Salmond is a consummate media performer and was very strong.
Julie Kirkbride is jovial, if not that bright, and came across well.
Melanie Phillips makes you listen, but is so often so wrong.
Nicol Stephen - he was once seen as a possible future Lib Dem leader - thank God his tenure as an MP was so short. He was just dull!
Mike O’Brien - oh dear!
I always mistrust an individual ’source’ - if it’s plural then I may take interest
66 - Ian they finished below the BNP in 4th
Even if the Tories win B&C, if it really is as close as it may now seem, this is an astonishing result.
No I think it just means that Jack W remembered Dan talking about Bromley earlier…
If Bromley result not expected until 2pm then isnt it too early to be predicting a recount?
I will eat someones hat if it is a recount!!!
111 Thanks Paul but why can’t we have a little row of Smiley faces to just click on like I can in Messenger
114 - a recount is always possible.
26 2*pm*!!!???
It is possible - but unlikely I feel!
130 - I assume that was a typo!
Labour near to losing deposit in B&C apparently!
Dan’s sources came up with the same stuff at the count in Moray - where the Lib Dems finished third. I’ll wait for the result before drawing any conclusions, I think.
re 126 how can it take until 2am to count an Outer London by-election?
(rushes out to buy a hat for Rik)
120 JA. No, Dan has a mole at Bromley.
Sky reporting Labour “gloomy” in BG and result not close.
In Bromley Labour “may have lost their deposit.”
Thanks Nick - I will collect it on Monday if needed
Recounts could be in all three by-elections tonight. Purely to see if deposits are saved. Recounts for the winner, I would have thought, will be unlikely.
137. And Trish Law’s supporters apparently looking happy.
Count quicker than expected
135 - I don’t know. Given a similar turnout in Hertsmere, we’d have it finished by 12.30.
If Cons do badly in B&C - a safe seat - things may not be as bad for DC as they at first appear. DC’s approach of attracting non-trad con voters was always going to alienate a few Daily Mail tories (Heffer!) - so a close run battle may not be as much of a surprise as it appears…
One thing we can all agree on - it’s clearly been an abysmal night for Labour with double defeat (predicted) in Blaenau Gwent and a collapse in their vote in Bromley and Chislehurst.
139 - I thought returning officers generally didn’t permit recounts for lost deposits? It has no bearing on the result - it’s just tough.
Given labour’s funding problems that £500 may come in handy!
Rennard saying b and c will be close.
According to News 24; Bromley result is expected around 1:30am
No recount at B&C I am hearing. Labour have disintegrated.
Result in about an hour.
BG result about 0100
144 In principle, anybody can insist on a recount, however poor their grounds for doing so.
135/141 - Doesn’t it just depend how much councils are prepared to spend on overtime? There is always significant variation in declaration times at General Elections which is far from being entirely based on geography.
48/49 - Jolly good, a relatively early night then. Where’s the Horlicks?
Sean I dont think anyone can insist. It is at the discretion of the Returning Officer.
This is getting more interesting by the minute… I think I will stay up after all!
Just heard Michael Portillo talking on ‘This Week’ about a Telegraph poll tomorrow (presumably AnythingYouLikeGov) quoting Cameron Tories vs Browns Labour (6 point lead for Cameron). Anyone have any other details?
Re 150: No they can’t it is entirely at the discretion of the returning officer. He could declare on first count in an election won by a single vote if he was mad enough.
Tories back in to 1.05 on betfair re B&C. Were at 1.13 5 mins ago.
55..that’s correct. Yougov.
156 - or he could declare it wrongly, as happened twice in the locals!
155 the poll (though not all of its details) was published on Tuesday.
Sorry AH at 34 - my source at Moray was second hand - and we never said that the Lib Dems would win - although (wrongly) second place seemed within reach.
My source this time is at the count with mobile phone, but the message I just received was very cautious.
‘Close - recount possible’ - could be for Labour lost deposit or for victory or for neither.
I’d be surprised if the verification was complete - but the parties will have a sense of how each ward is breaking.
I agree Mark @ 128, but once you know how to do them it is actually as quick - a bit like using ctrl C instead of ‘copy’ on Word - it becomes quicker in the long run.
Rik. Will you really eat your hat? I have never seen anyone actually do it. It’s one of those things that people promise, but never actually do. It would be great if you did, but how would we verify it? Would you promise to podcast it Rik?
155 - The Daily Telegraph just published a YouGov poll on Monday. Surely they wouldn’t have done another one so soon?
Oh the power that this thread has… Betfair seems to move based on single-sourced assertions on this site!
155: That’s the YouGov poll we had a few days ago.
Unfortunately, have to get up at 7, so heading for bed. Spin you in the morning
155. cyberkarst
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12386
150. Agents can request a recount. This can be either
- a simple bundle check to see if a 50 vote stack for candidate A is in fact 1 ballot for A on top and 49 for B below.
- a full unbundling of the votes and full recount
Unless the result is pretty tight (I can’t remember how tight) the RO won’t permit a recount.
I think a recount for deposits is only via a bundle check
156 - That does seem crazy allthough I’m sure in practice no returning officer would do it. IIRC in Canada there is a margin of victory below which a recount has to take place by law.
Because we are the only ones betting
same beeb correspondent who was quoting rennard as saying LDs would go close in Bromley now on BBC News 24 saying “this is a safe conservative seat” implying that there is no chance whatever of an upset there in my view tallying with earlier comments from activists - looks like I’ve done my money on my speculative punt yet again…
Lib Dems drifting out to 5.1. Amount available is small.
No mention whatsover on either Sky or BBC that the race to WIN Bromley is close. You would have thought they would have mentioned it had we been into recount territory.
169: probably… to see the papers you wouldn’t even think that there was a by-election on. Let alone one this exciting!
150. Sean, it’s up to the returning officer, and the only grounds are win/lose or lost deposit. The Tories tried to insist on a recount when they finished in fourth place just behind UKIP at Hartlepool. The returning officer made a sensible decision.
Turnout in BG at 50.5%
It is discretionairy. I’ve had RC’s given for 200+ margins at locals and refused for below 75. Most RO’s will try and get two counts the same in a close election.
49.6% turnout for Welsh Assembly
BBC saying that Trish Laws is “comfortably ahead” but the Westminster race is still “too close to call”. They haven’t really speculated about Bromley.
153/156 - Yes, that was certainly my understanding. It is not unusual for returning officers to say no particularly to repeated recounts. I think they have guidance on it but it’s ultimately down to their discretion.
Recounts depend on movement of votes too.
In 1998 we won a ward by 19 votes and Labour demanded a recount. When it came back as still 19, the RO refused a second.
However in 2004 we lost a seat by 16 and the recount moved it down to 14. The RO then allowed another recount because of the shift in votes.
Nothing at all available now on the indies in either BG count …
Wee bit about BG on Radio 5 backing up everything we’ve heard so far. Again no mention of B&C. Is there not usually a results programme?
O/T Andrea - I hope you were cheering on Andy Murray today - you know how upset Jack will be if you haven’t!!!
And humerously enough I saw one recount where the Labour majority over the LibDems went UP … they didn’t ask for a second!
Will some post if a new thread opens. I have been happily watching a slowing thread before now only to then realise that a new one opened hours before! Thanks
BTW can we all agree to play nicely whatever the results tonight?
180 - Yes, I think that goes back to Stavros’s point that the guidance is two-in-a-row the same and you can all go home.
Is Rita Chakribati at the Bromley count? If so she won’t give any insight even as the result is being announced - she simply button holes passing ‘celebs’ for inane interviews.
It might explain the lack of any guestimates.
Looks like I’m stuffed in BG - no-one is taking money on the indies…
183 - What is really interesting is where you have a multi-member ward on a knife edge and one of your candidates wants a recount and the other doesn’t! It is not that unusual to have recounts between candidates from the same party.
182. Max, naturally!
oh dear, I have just heard Andrew Neil say the word “wank”, and Diane Abbot with Michael Portillo biting their lips trying to look serious and concerned.
I feel faint….
84. Doesn’t everyone play nicely rik? You haven’t answered about how we will verify the consumption of millenary headgear if it comes to it?
Someone is progressively laying the LibDems at BC, every few minutes, its up to 7.0 now … no-one seems to be biting.
183 - indeed Cllr Little - the (now ex) Tory leader in Kingston asked for a recount in May when he was 1 behind, got one and was 4 behind, so asked for another and was 6 behind - then he gave up!
I would have gone on until two results were the same.
Indeed James, but I have seen a situation where the result was
Lab - E
Con - E
Lab - E
Con
Lab
Con
and we asked for a recount and lost the seat we held!
Only a few hundred quid traded in the last few hours, pitiful amounts really.
60. Sean and 66. Andrea - many thanks
Doesn’t look like anything new then
Inside info from the Bromley by-election…..
Tory majority of about 5,557.
The Old Etonian, Oxonian future Tory Prime Minister has won it for the good Old Tories…….. Hurrah!
This year the fourth placed Greens asked for a recount because they were two votes behind the third placed Tories and were refused. Both parties were 800 votes behind the leading two parties. I can’t help but wonder why they didn’t get it
It’s silly to say that >10% lead in B&C is good for Tories and bad for LibDems at same time. That implies there is no middle space at all where neither party has “done well”, and that a single vote switched the situation from good to bad. Makes more sense to say that >20% good for Tories,
196 RodCrosby. Could you be more precise.
re 196 ‘guaranteed’ info? such precision!
How precise is that majority, Rod? Give or take a dozen or so either way?
Damn. I haven’t Sky anymore!