Will PB.C’s competition entrants get the by-elections right?
June 29th, 2006-
“Labour by 1% in BG but heading for 4th place in Bromley”
Following the close of the PB.C by-election competition, the contest for the Westminster seat at Blaenau Gwent looks to be neck-and-neck.
By averaging out all the entries received we are able to state what the overall view of all those who took part is and it will be interesting to see if their collective wisdom is accurate. These are the figures.
Blaenau Gwent - Westminster: LAB 42.7: IND 41.6: LD 5.9: PC 5.13: CON 4.3 Blaenau Gwent - Cardiff: LAB 37.9: IND 47.6: LD 5.4: PC 4.9: CON 3.8 Bromley & Chislehurst: CON 51.2: LD 26.9: UKIP 10.4: LAB 8.9
So in the closest contest, to replace the late Peter Laws at Westminster, Labour are predicted to receive 42.7% of the vote, with independent candidate Dai Davies just behind on 41.6%. 45 entries predicted a Labour win while 36 plumped for Davies.
In the Welsh Assembly by-election his widow, Trish Law, is predicted to win fairly comfortably, and leads Labour by 47.6% to 37.9% on the average scores, and only five entries predicted Labour to win. In both the Blaenau Gwent elections, the other parties are well down into single figures.
Meanwhile in Bromley & Chislehurst, the Conservatives are predicted to romp home with an average prediction of 51.2%, well ahead of the Lib Dems on 26.9% - all but one entry fore-casted a win for the Conservatives.
If the PB.C predictions are right, then Labour are in for an embarassing night being forced into fourth place.
The betting markets on all three election have proved to be a flop attracting very little interest. The two biggest interests - the size of the Tory share in Bromley and whether Labour will be pushed into fourth place have not been part of any betting market.
There’s been very little serious intent behind the betting on the Lib Dems and very few takers on the Tories where the 0.13/1 appears like free money.
Mike Smithson & Paul Maggs (“Double Carpet”)
MessageSpace Advertising
“it will be interesting to see if their collective wisdom is accurate.”
Pah! Democracy:- the ridiculous belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance…. HL.Mencken
I just wonder whether Labour may sneak third place in Bromley by virtue of the English Democrats taking a chunk of Ukip votes. With the football and all the England flags I would expect a stronger than normal showing for them, maybe 3 or 4%, maybe a little more.
Seems pretty accurate to me. I think we overestimated the Conservative share at Bromley; I just can’t see the Conservatives managing over 50% of the vote with both UKIP and the Eng Dems stealing votes away. There is, of course, always that backdoor sense that the Lib Dems could pull off a surprise, but it doesn’t look likely.
Blaenau Gwent is more or less accurate, though I don’t think Dai Davies will come so close. We’ll see.
51% for the Cons is just what they got in the General Election when Howard was leader (treading water) and 10% down on the local elections a few weeks ago.
Surely they must be able to do better than that?
I fear Oxonian @ 4 that you are not going to be the only person to make that point in the next 24 hours!
In terms of the post-election spin war Labour, surely, is most vulnerable should it fail to take back the BG Westminster seat. If they have done appallingly in Bromley as well, their share being halved for instance, then that will be the big story of the night provided the Tories do hold on in Bromley.
There are huge expectations of the Lib Dems in by-elections and they desperately need a good result coming within 10% of the Tories.
Generally on Bromley I find it amazing that the local Tory party has so much autonomy in choosing a by-election candidate and running the campaign. By-elections mean so much in terms of establishing and maintaining momentum that the national party has to be able to intervene to take over even if this means a over-ruling local members.
The Lib Dems and Labour learned this years ago and where it matters field highly effective by election teams.
If the Tories do badly tonight, as I think they might, then you can see changes being made.
So, Mike, how would you define ‘doing badly’ for the Tories in Bromley?
Re 6. The Lib Dems coming within 10%
Does anyone know what time we should expect the results tonight? I need to work out whether I should go to bed or not…
If we assume c20% between UKIP, Lab & Others (say 10:5:5), that leaves 80% to play for.
For a 10% margin, that would imply Con 45% Lib 35%.
I for one would be delighted with that kind of swing - and for the Tories to drop from 60% to 45% in a matter of weeks would be pretty catastrophic, don’t you think?
OTOH if the split were Con 50% Lib 30% I still reckon that would be a pretty reasonable result. Surely 50% for the Cons has to be some kind of benchmark?
To put it another way, the Cons got 51% with Michael Howard as their leader a year ago. Surely - with a supposedly shiny new leader - this should be the minimum they would aim for, irrespective of any by-election distortions?
Mike - you are ever the pessimist!
All the reports I’ve heard (including on this site) are that the Liberals’ nasty, negative campaign is making no headway AT ALL in Bromley.
I’m comfortable that we should achieve a good 60% or thereabouts when polls close this evening.
What’s more, I’m heading over there later to make sure it happens. Will try to report back later in the afternoon.
I think the media are still in ‘Government embattled’ mood so even if Labour regains BG I suspect the story will still be ‘tiny majority in former stronghold’. I’m not aware of any serious Labour effort in B&C. MPs were informed briefly of the contact number if we wanted to help, but there was no serious effort to nudge us in either there or BG as there was at Dunfermline. We’ve obviously had a good try in BG, but I suspect that the view was that in BG the ground war was what counted and having people with a variety of English accents ringing from London and struggling to pronounce Blaenau wouldn’t be a great idea.
I can honestly say that a win is a win, and I will define “badly” as the Conservatives losing the seat.
As Sean Fear has pointed out, by-elections are simply strange beasts. They just don’t mean anything. Dunfermline - if you took a ‘message’ from that for the LibDems, the appalling results in the locals would have greatly surprised you.
I am sure that we will win the seat. There may have been a slight paradoxical boost for Central Office in speculation that either of the firmly Eurosceptic A-list candidates rejected might have done better in B&C than the actual choice. Which is not to say that I wish anything other for Bob Neill than a seat in the Commons, and I have no reason to speculate that anything other will be the case.
The result that is interesting is BG.
1. There is a real chance that either of two parties could take the seat, whereas B&C is a foregone conclusion.
2. Whatever we psephology anoraks may think, the national press is NOT going to run any stories along the lines of “Bob Neill returned but with only 48% of the vote!’
3. However, they WILL run a story that says ‘Labour loses its SAFEST SEAT - AGAIN!’
4. Therefore, while a Tory win with a reduced maj may excite some people here who just don’t get that by-elections are meaningless in national terms, an actual Labour loss will get press coverage, further the sense of Labour losing control, and therefore actually affect the national standings by further boosting the overall Tory lead and sense of inevitable victory.
Do I get the prize for best pre-coffee analysis this am Sean Fear?
This is going to be a very long post; so long, almost no-one will read it. However I feel I have to post it, for reasons which will become apparent. I should be very grateful if the splendid Mike S would indulge me this once, for the last time.
About two days ago, as regular pb.com-ers will know, Nick Palmer repasted a comment of mine that he had somehow unearthed and saved. It was a comment I had made on another website, about Muslims in Britain. The gist of the comment was that I wanted disgruntled and unhappy Muslims to leave the country.
At the time of Nick’s reposting of this remark I felt hard done by. After all, this was one ill-tempered comment I had made, on a different website, after several glasses of wine, in reflexive response to yet another disturbing opinion poll showing that x% of Muslims hate British values, think the rest of us are selfish and immoral, support suicide bombings, think attacks on British Jews are justified etc. Surely I was just coming out and saying what many Britons have felt, in moments of post 7/7 anger?
But the night after the debate on my remarks, on pb.com, I couldn’t sleep. Really. I was disturbed by the way my remarks had looked in the sober black and white of pb.com. The fact that I was a little drunk when I made these statements, the fact that I believed they might possibly reflect widespread but unspoken views, was really irrelevant. In truth, that night I was mortified by the brutishness of my repasted comments.
So I have decided to unburden myself of my true but measured feelings. This is probably of supreme irrelevance to everyone else, but I want people to know what I really think, just in case they care. Because I am going to disappear from pb.com after this - and I don’t want people to think I am slinking away in shame - or running away guffawing for that matter.
I think I am probably slightly racist. But I should add - I think we are all slightly racist. It is the human condition, it surely comes from our evolutionary development, an instinctive fear of the other, the sensible dread of the different-looking caveman from the other tribe. This truth, of course, is no excuse for being racist - nature is what we are put on this earth to rise above, after all.
Moreover, even if I wanted to be really racist, I don’t think I could be: I am rather religious - I believe in the spiritual worth of every individual human being, this alone makes me despise and abjure any racist tendencies in myself - or others.
But am I Islamophobic? I don’t think so. I lived very happily in Egypt for some months in the 1980s. I have visited dozens of Muslim countries - from Syria to Indonesia, from Palestine to Bosnia, from Morocco to Azerbaijan. I have also found Muslim countries some of the most hospitable on earth, likewise I deeply admire Islam for its sincere virtues - respect for elders, social decorum, etc.
And yet, and yet. I cannot ignore what I see around me. I think there is a real problem reconciling the supremacism of the Islamic faith with the pluralist liberalism of the West. Put it another way, I think we may have serious difficulties in properly integrating Muslim communities in western society, long-term - not because Muslims are bad, not because white people are racist, but just because the two ideologies don’t fit so well together.
I know this is not a popular view; I know it goes against the central tenet of the multicultural ‘faith’ - which is that all immigration is just fine in the end, if everyone talks nicely to each other. I think these multicultural pieties are terribly myopic if well-meaning - I think, indeed, they might lead to some catastrophic problems further down the line.
However, my opinion of the problems betweem Islam and the west - which I sincerely hold - does not excuse my incontinent phraseology of the other day. And I hereby apologise to any that were offended by those remarks.
So that’s that. I’m now going to bow out of pb.com, for as long as it takes. I do this because I have a second volume of memoirs to write and I can‘t afford the time, especially if I‘m going to spend half that time apologising for foolish things said elsewhere. I also do it because my four week old daughter keeps throwing up on my laptop when I spend too long online.
Sayonara. It’s been good.
Newspapers report that Labour is hopeful to regain Blaenau Gwent at Westminster level tonight.
It seems that Labour effort has been big.
Do you know how the votes will be counted in BG? Westminster first, Assembly later? The opposite? Both at the same time? Will they count tonight, right?
In the General Election B&C did n’t report till after 3am - might be earlier if there’s a much lower turnout. I’ve commented before on this site on how slowly some London boroughs count (although Bromley’s not the worst) when they have fairly compact areas and no local votes to separate.
15 - At a guess its probably because the London Boroughs are made up of three member wards, which understandably take more time to count than just single member wards.
Commentator - I don’t think you’re comparing like with like.
The Lib Dems didn’t get ‘appalling’ local election results by any measure. Surely you can see that is a way over the top characterisation.
In fact the LDs out-performed their poll ratings - and *significantly* out-performed the expectations of them pre-Dunfermline.
Hence it’s at best unproven to say that Dunfermline had no impact.
It would of course be equally foolish to suggest that the result in today’s B&C by-election is the only factor of significance in the political climate.
It is, however, *one* indication of direction of travel.
Dunfermline showed the Lib Dems had got over the turmoil of their leadership ructions.
B&C may demonstrate that Cameron continues to sweep all before him (if the Tories increase their vote to the 65-70% level and Labour fall to 4th).
It may OTOH indicate a bit of a stalling of the Cameron bandwagon if the Tory vote drops below the 60% achieved a few weeks ago - or perhaps more realistically the 51% achieved under Michael Howard a year ago.
Or it may indicate nothing at all, if the Tories hold their position or up it a little.
My impression is that the last is the most likely outcome, so it will turn out to be a damp squib - but it isn’t beyond the bounds of possibility that either of the other 2 scenarios may arise, and that *would* be significant.
12
You really can´t have it both ways, Commentator. If you will be happy merely to hold Bromley and Chislehurst (even if the share of the vote does not rise, even if it falls…) then you cannot at the same time describe Lib Dem local election results as “appalling”. In May the Lib Dems made a small number of net gains (between 1 and fifteen depending on your source) and beat Labour in share of the popular vote for only the second time not just in my lifetime, but also in Mike Smithson´s.
In practice I suspect you will improve your vote share, and that Eleanor might not be too far out in her prediction. But let´s have some consistency!
Sean T.
Think your talking bs about the multi cultural society the tenants of etc. Suggest you visit Leicester and talk to people from a very successful multi cultural city. Do you actually talk to any muslims? Lots of “british” people have odd views about Jewish people…..yes there is conflict between islam and liberla societies as there has been between all aspects of christianity and liberal societies………
having said all that your posts will be missed and your analysis of local government elections missed as well……come back soon
Cheers
Mark
13 sean T.
I haven’t seen the thread or post in question, but good on you for admitting where you realise you were at fault/ranting.
I also admire the way you have tried to present your views honestly about a complex and emotional issue for many.
Im pretty certain we are political opposites and rarely agree with what you say ( often that Voltaire quote comes to mind!) Good luck with the book.
Peter and Oxonian,
Do you guys honestly believe that?
You can’t indeed compare apples and oranges. Share of vote in individual by-elections is just meaningless.
I don’t know why you don’t think the locals were disastrous for the LibDems. Labour was at an historically low point and ALL their votes switched directly to the Tories without stopping.
For LibDems not to receive ANY of the anti-Lab vote (considered nationally) was just a disaster - surely? How wasn’t it a distaster? Lab -316, C +316, LD +3, BNP +22 IIRC?
And like Nick Palmer, just so you know, I don’t ramp or manage expectations. Like him, my policy is that if I see something bad for the Conservatives I simply don’t post it - I am not here to hurt my own party which I believe with all my heart to best for Britain. To hurt the Tories is to hurt the country.
But everything I do post, I believe.
I think the Cons will come back in B&C with a slightly reduced majority. The national press will not care at all - no ‘DC disaster’ stories. On the contrary, the mistakes made by the candidate and possibly by the Association in choosing a Europhile, over two qualified Eurosceptics from the A-list, will perhaps boost the Central Office candidate plan. Therefore in this particular case even some of the negative coverage will be long-term positive. Bob Neill will be in Parliament for a long time.
In BG, I suppose it is likely that Lab will win, but I am hoping that they lose. They should have had every MP in Westminster out knocking up. They absolutely need to get that seat back. To lose it will equal a press story of national proportions and hurry the end of the Government.
It must be remembered that the Independent has no machine behind him - Labour has a party machine of activists, AMs and MPs. If they can’t get a win here they’re finished. I’m sure Nick P would agree, though on the same basis as my first para I don’t expect him to post it!
They would have been far better picking Trish Law for the Westminster seat - she’d have won it.
21 Commentator, you made the comparison. But carry on spinning.
13 - I disagree with much of what is written on this site - too many activists etc. That said, however, I always respect and sometimes enjoy anothers point of view. Your own posts have always been amongst the most readable. One mistake in expression or the holding of a view not generally accepted does not negate all that you contribute. My advice - keep on writing if you enjoy it. The myth of sisyphus is with us all.
The Lib Dems have not won most byelections where the Opposition is incumbent. Romsey and Bermondsey are the few recent examples where they have won.
The Tories have held Uxbridge, Beckenham, South Staffs, Eddisbury and Kensington and Chelsea since they went into opposition in 1997. Romsey is the only one of these Tory defences where the Lib Dems started from a good base (29.4%).
Apart from Romsey, B&C is the only one of these by-elections where the Lib Dems polled above 20% in the preceding General Election.
Given that they were 3rd in 2005 and we have new untested Tory leader, B&C should be a tough ask for the Lib Dems. That said, the campaign appears to have built up some momentum.
The Lib Dems do pull off big by-elections wins from time to time but if the Tories are really serious about building up a head of steam under their new leader they should be getting the sort of thumping defences that Labour got in the early 90s. There should not be even a sniff of a Romsey in the air.
Yet there is.
Not wishing to get into another spat with a Conservative poster on here but I must correct one false statement in your post . You say the Lib Dems did not receive any of the anti Lab vote which is clearly a false statement . A true(ish) statement would be that they picked up no more of the anti Lab vote than they did in 2003 and 2004 when the local elections were previously fought but compared to the GE in 2005 the vote share changes in the comparable seats were Lab - 12.1% Con + 3.7% LD + 2.5% Green + 3.5% BNP + 1.7% Others + 0.7% . The Lib Dems clearly picked up some anti Lab vote but I would agree not enough of it .
26 This is replying to Commentator at post 21
13- Sean T. You were right. What a mess this Country is.
BTW I predicted a narrow LD in B&C because I am an optimist. I think to be Lib Dem you havw to be!
29- Ah, it was you who was ‘the one’!
26 - I don’t know if in individual seats the LDs picked up some anti-Lab votes - I’m sure they did. I put in my post (considered nationally) ie overall.
Lab -319, C + 316, LD +3 speaks for itself - the raw seat numbers show an almost entire transfer of Lab losses into Tory gains.
I would suggest that any neutral observer would have expected the Lab losses to be split in some form with the other two parties.
Peter Pigeon, I made the point that there is NO comparison. LD triumph in Dunfermline did not translate into anything across the country for the LibDems.
However, what it may well have done was *hurt Labour* nationally, adding to perceptions and softening them up before triple whammy Wednesday.
I would guess Tory share tonight to be 48% and I don’t think one single national commentator will read anything into it whatsoever.
However if Labour loses in BG, that will be a story.
OT but when do they announce the new Lords Speaker?
Lords speaker - Result July 4th!
One — two —– three —- five —– no hang on start again One —two —
Really? July 4th? What is that, the slowest count in electoral history?
I suppose it’s appropriate for the HoL
Lord Rennard said it’ll be close…..in Blaenau Gwent
13 seanT. You made a mistake in a drunken moment (sounds familiar) and you’ve apologized. Case dismissed.
Look I made a terrible misjudgement recently ….. I called for other MP’s to join the site and we’ve ended up with Stewart Jackson !! So compared to you my mea culpa was almost unpardonable
Good luck with the new book, but don’t use it as an excuse not to post, otherwise the boys from PB will come round !! …. and Matlock, Tabman and Andrea are not a pretty sight in full flow !!
………………………………………
29 Ian Ridley. So you are the PB one. There’ll be no middle ground in the early hours for you. You’ll either be the lauded as a political prophet or condemned as a prat.
10 “Mike - you are ever the pessimist!”
Eleanor - Don’t you mean optimist from Mike’s perspective?
31 But commentator the gains in seats are from when the seats were last fought 2002/2003/2004 depending on the council . In 2004 in particular the Lib Dems had a very good year and the Conservatives an OK one . In 2002 ( Mostly London ) Labour had a relatively good year and the Conservatives not so good . The seat changes reflect not just this year’s performance by the parties but the previous ones . The best measure of change is in the share of votes compared to the GE which I gave in my previous post . This shows Labour share well down splitting to all other parties with the Greens doing best .
According to IcWales, BG result is expected for 3 AM.
DC 28. “Sean T. You were right. What a mess this Country is”
You might do well to read SeanT’s views on the other thread before you endorse them or your future in Conservative Party politics will be less rosy than Ann Wintertons!
Are the two BG seats being counted at the same time, or is one being counted first?
Do we know how the PB.com panel got on in previous competitions? I don’t seem to remember.
It would be interesting to see if we build a track record for predicting things. The scores feel instinctively right. I just hope we have enough marging of error to get Dai in in BG.
Bullseye, look what you have done… I keep on having to feed the blog .. which is here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
If any one fancies a visit, it will get my rankings up
(sorry for the shameless plug…
Mark, OK, that is a fair point. Bit busy now but more on it later.
It’s a good blog Benedict. I’m as big a fan of Beirut as you are having worked there several times. And despite it’s superficial liberalism underneath it has a conservative core. This seems a more likely answer to how someone born in the ‘Summer of Love’ could possibly have any truck with the Conservative Party! Even if you were too young to know how come your parents didn’t spot your unhealthy inclination!
40. There are some notable comments on immigration in the press today by that well-known extremist and xenophobe (sic) Frank Field MP for Birkenhead. Do Labour posters think he should be disciplined or even expelled from the party for voicing such sentiments?
If as most of us agree the Conservatives are a shoo-in in B/C and some people will have been able to see the Postal Votes to check this why are people not rushing to take the 10% return available on betfair ?
I’m a great believer in the wisdom of crowds. But does it work in this instance? The reason being, those who posted later in the competition have probably been influenced by those further up the thread and tempered their views accordingly.
Nick P - how do you pronounce Blaenau? I’ve always pronounced it Blay-now.
Fred. I havent read Frank Field’s comments but I did read Sean’s. If Frank Field had written what Sean wrote there is no doubt he would have been thrown out of the Labour party.
Re 44, Thank you Roger. My Mums Welsh, and a very solid Conservative. I could post here
what she thinks of Labour, but I would very definitely offend all labour posters, and any one
who did not like vulgar language.
My father was also a Conservative, though he and I have/had a common friend in the Labour
party who if he stood we would both have supported. Perhaps my parents did spot my
inclination…
Many thanks for the compliments on the blog though. Over the weekend I hope to post an
article on the war on terror. I won’t be pulling any punches.
As for Frank Field, from what I heard he was just talking common sense so obviously should
cross the floor before he gets expelled.
It is not the first time I have agreed with him and I am sure it won’t be the last.
48. Actually I wasn’t comparing the two sets of comments. I was just interested to know what Labour posters thought of Frank Field’s remarks - I am sure had they been made by a Tory they would have been roundly condemned by Labour as racist. The rent-a-mouth Lib Dem home affairs spokesman Clegg has already attacked the comments.
Here is the link -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/29/nimm29.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/06/29/ixuknews.html
47 Bly-ny
Of the two by-election, Bromley is the significant one. Blaenau is just a private family matter for Labour, while unedifying and embarrassing, it has no national significance. Labour has been through this kind of thing before, Merthyr 1970, Dick Taverne 1973. Unless it leads to a wider re-alignment it will be forgotten, and the Brothers and Sisters will quietly patch-up. For those who are really interested in it, add up the combined Labour and People’s Choice share and compare it with Labour’s historical share in Blaenau. There will be no significant leakage (it might even go up!)
There is no getting away from the significance of Bromley. Anyone who says that a “win is a win” is not being realistic or objective. I have been in this game for a very long time, and I have very good memory - and I can tell you when the last time was the main opposition party was going round by-elections in its safest seats saying a “win is a win.” It was between 1981 and 1983, and that party was Labour…. You know the rest.
This is simply not a reasonable or serious benchmark for the Tories to be clinging to - unless by implication, they are really writing off the next election…..
As for those who say “by-elections are meaningless”, repeating something as a mantra even a thousand times does not make it a fact. On the contrary, while no firm conclusions can be drawn from any SINGLE by-election(notwithstanding being able to call it an objectively good or bad result), the record will show, conclusively(IMHO), that by-elections(taken collectively) are far and away the BEST predictor of the next election, to a degree of accuracy which is almost exact. But you must know what to look for…
If Mike can give me a guest spot sometime on Friday, I think you may find my analysis illuminating….
36. There can be only one. And it’s me. How did PB.com get on predicting Dunfermline & W. Fife? I made a pretty penny on that one via Betfair with a 25-1. No-one seems to want to take my cash for B&C except one backing the Tories at 1.12. If everyone’s that confident why are my offers of 1.05 and 1.02 not being snapped up?
Perhaps the betting madness will start after the polls close like they did for D & WF. ATM the LDs have drifted out to 7.6 and the Tories are coming in.
I will probably be the class dunce come tomorrow morning……
RE 50, and Frank Fields cooments, I agree with Frank. Perhaps he should join a sensible party?
52 I’ll be interested to read your analysis Rod, because I think you’re completely wrong that by-elections, taken as a whole, have any predictive value.
54 I’ve long considered that Frank Field would be more at home in the Conservative Party.
51 But, in my experience, it’s usually shortened to Bly-na.
And no Blaenau Gwent, can’t be shortened to Blaenau! Grrr. No one local calls it that. Do not confuse it with local village Blaina, or far away places like Blaenau Ffestiniog.
RE RodCrosby at 52, i would quite like to see his argument, then we can see how it stacks up. Please Mike.
SeanT - I do hope you dont stop posting on here. Your comments are as valid as anyone elses and you wont be the first person to post something in haste and then regret it.
This is without doubt the premier political discussion site and as such it does attract people with some odd views and very ungenerous character. It just so happens that many of them are Lib Dems but all parties have a few.
The thing that I like about your postings is that you say what you feel in an unvarnished and unspun way. I dont always agree with you but I have great respect for you. As a member of the “out” club of known individuals it is easy for others to knock you and to dredge up other comments you may have made. Whilst those who cower behind the cover of anonymity can attack freely knowing that their identity is safe and nothing else can be dredged up from their past or other sites.
Keep up the good work SeanT and I hope we hear from you again soon.
BG betting on BF has ground to a halt.
BC Cons 1.13 / 1.27
LD 5.4/7.6
100 bar the rest
Thanks for the link fred. The Telegraph are conflating too many issues together. The question of EEC migrant workers seems to have been Frank Field’s concern. This is understandable for a liverpool MP and has nothing whatever to do with racism. The Telegraph then invited ‘Migration Watch’ the anti immigrant pressure group to comment-as the Telegraph always do- and then that silly opportunist Lib Dem commented on the ‘Migration Watch’ interpretation of frank fields comments…..
No he should not be sacked (not for that anyway!)
(I have to post this in a hurry, so forgive me if I have missed something in skim-reading all of the above!)
Re the Welsh contests, I think everyone is underestimating the votes for the Tories, Lib Dems and Plaid. In previous contests, those parties would not have had a hope - so they did nothing, and spent time and money elsewhere. No doubt some of their helpers did likewise.
Now I am NOT suggesting that any of them are going to win - far from it. But they have all put in a bit of an effort this time. Even a little effort will produce some results - so I expect to see their vote share rise. I don’t know how it will split, but I forecast that the combined Tory, Lib Dem and Plaid vote in the two Welsh contests will be 20%.
52 “If Mike can give me a guest spot sometime on Friday, I think you may find my analysis illuminating…” Look forward to hearing it Rod, because until I do, I’m simply not going to believe that any result in Bromley other than a Tory loss will have any impact on the national politics of this country.
In America certainly, the betting markets have the best history of predicting electoral outcomes. In the UK, the by-election markets simply don’t have enough money put on them to be accurate guides; I think the general election markets have a better record at homing in on the right result.
(BTW betfair market this morning: a hung parliament with Tories being the largest party most likely. A Labour majority slightly less likely than a conservative majority and the Tory prospects have become significantly better over the past few months… Seems like a reasonable assessment of the state of play to me…)
Rik. Would your admiration of SeanT’s “unspun and unvarnished postings” be quite so effusive if he was an IRA sympathiser? Or are his racist posts welcome because he is a Tory and his victims are ethic minorities?
56. Sean - I think he would be very welcome..his views on many key subjects seem increasingly indistinguishable from Tories of the IDS ilk.
61. I see Roger, so it’s just a little technical discussion about EU immigrants, is it? I must say I thought comments like ‘this is the most massive transformation of our population’ amounted to just a little more than that.
52, Rod, will you be rushing out tomorrow morning to put a large bet on Labour to win the next election if the Tories don’t get 60%+ in B&C?
Would like to see you do a guest slot and explain more fully why you think by-elections are so important when it comes to predicting the results of general elections.
The tories will not do well in B & C. Although in the competition I’ve forecast 13% in front of the LDs, that feels like an overestimate. For a betting website to ignore the tories’ very poor bye-election ‘form’ is soft. We’re listening to the chat rather than looking at the stats.
A much more important question is whether bye-election ‘form’ matters at a GE. Probably not much. But if there were an impression that ‘we don’t need to try very hard at bye-elections’ the arrogance on the part of DC and his team would count against them.
The tories’ attitude of not appearing to take opposition seriously has allowed an inept and incompetent govt to win a 3rd GE.
13 - seant - If you have an evening free go and see the latest West End hit ‘Avenue Q’, it includes the song ‘Everyone’s a Little Bit Racist’, absolutely hilarious and hits a nerve with any self respecting liberal anywhere.
The show is a sort of adult Sesame Street (with live puppet nudity!), I’d recommend it to anyone.
http://www.soundtracklyrics.net/song-lyrics/avenue-q/everyones-a-little-bit-racist.htm
(It’s not really the same without the jaunty music)
Quick message for Bing - Blaenau Gwent is much more important because the *government* should retake it, it also shows up the anti-mainstream politics feeling in this country at the moment. B&C may well show this as well but, only if a high UKIP or whatever vote affects the outcome will it be of any significance.
Are you Alastair Campbell in disguise?
64. What are ‘ethic minorities’? the Quakers, perhaps?
53 Ian R. It’s possible that Bromley may be, like Dunfermline, an under the radar by-election or perhaps more likely a Moray.
Even Betfair may not prove to be an accurate guide as the shambles of Dunfermline showed.
The sense I get from the info coming to me is that the Tories have been stung (again …. do they ever learn?) by the robust nature of the challenge they’ve faced both from the Lib Dems and UKIP. Having said that all parties are desperate to manage expectations. We had Rik yesterday saying that 45% (a 10% fall) was OK, whilst LibDems have been indicating that 65% plus for the Tories should be the aim !!
Several weeks back I posted decent benchmarks for each of the main parties as follows :
Con 50-55% .. Lib Dem 25-30% .. Lab 10-15%.
The only variance from those figures I’d forcaste is a slighty better figure for the Lib Dems.
No, because the next general election is too far away, and too much can happen. Events, dear boy, Events!! However my analysis will show the things(quite simple things actually) that will accurately forecast the next election.
However, what I will say is this. ON PRESENT FORM, the Tories are not going to come anywhere near to winning the next election. Now, if only I could get a bookie to take my bet on that basis, I’d bet the farm….
71. Do you mean winning as in a majority or most seats ?
Either way Betfair have a market for you.
Rod - oh yes, our present form of 316 council gains to your 319 losses is giving me some sleepless nights, I can tell you.
You are losing your activist base. You have less than 200,000 members.
I like Rod - we need more optimistic lefties of the red persuasion round here.
71 Well Rod - Today is your lucky day… There is £272 on betfair that you can lay against the Tories getting a majority of seats at close to evens… A 100% return on your money in only 3 or 4 years… Go on! You know you want to!
72. Neither
74. If you have been watching carefully, you should know that I have said umpteen times on this forum that “I HAVE NEVER VOTED LABOUR IN MY LIFE.”, and I’m 40 now, so I guess that’s a lot of elections…. Please don’t try to undermine my posts by ascribing a false partisanship to me. It is unworthy of you. I have, however, been studying elections for 25 years, and in my youth I was an activist and participated in several interesting elections…. My other claim to fame is that I wrote a Martin Baxter type program on a ZX-81, nearly 25 years ago…. Ah, memories….
76. Sorry Rod so you expect Lab to have the most number of seats after the next GE ?
The Tories winning the next election, and Labour losing it are separate issues.
Labour are down to 6,000 council seats (and will probably fall to 5,000 next year); their opinion poll ratings are down to the low thirties, and their membership is below 200,000 and falling. All of those are signs of a government in decline.
I’d agree that - so far - the Conservatives are not doing well enough to suggest that they can win an outright majority next time round. If the Bromley result is close to my prediction (or the Lib Dems do indeed cut our majority to under 10%) I don’t think it alters that particularly.
77. ON CURRENT FORM, Yes. In other words, the Tories will have to improve dramatically to change my opinion.
75 Anna. All of £272 !! Well, that’ll fund Rod’s pension !!
76. Rod, you should definitely do a guest slot.
I had a ZX-81 once. It overheated and burnt a hole in my carpet.
Jack at 70 - that’s not a bad benchmark and pretty close to the mean scores for the pb.c competition - which clearly evens out the ramping from all sides.
QT
This week’s panel
David Dimbleby will be joined in Perth by Mike O’Brien MP, Julie Kirkbride MP, Nicol Stephens MSP, Alex Salmond MP and journalist Melanie Phillips.
I hope the audience raises the WLQ.
82 Dan. I’m pretty confident that the parties will fall within my benchmarks and the PB mean scores. However there is just a nagging doubt in my mind, not backed up by any tangible evidence or my intangible antenae, that the Lib Dems may edge closer to the Tories than most of us think.
76 - One of those elections being to support Shirley Williams in the Crosby by election no?
Walls have ears….
62.”Now I am NOT suggesting that any of them are going to win - far from it. But they have all put in a bit of an effort this time. Even a little effort will produce some results - so I expect to see their vote share rise. I don’t know how it will split, but I forecast that the combined Tory, Lib Dem and Plaid vote in the two Welsh contests will be 20%. ”
If so, Labour will probably be pleased. If LD/Plaid/Con rise, it means they haven’t tactically voted for the Indies.
Btw, to recap Plaid efforts, I think one of their candidates went on holiday during the campaign….
85. How did you guess? There were others too….
I don’t generally comment on colleagues in any way, for obvious reasons (would you post comments on your workmates?). And I’m anxious not to rekindle the seanT dispute, which is more a matter for him than for the site. I’ll just say that the views he expressed were of a very different nature to Frank Field’s, and I’m glad that on reflection he has decided to rethink them.
In general, MPs who represent predominantly middle-class constituencies like me find it easier to support a small-l liberal view of immigration and asylum (as I do) than MPs with constituencies with many people who are in severe difficulty and feel threatened by factors outside their control. To some extent we are selected as candidates because we reflect local concerns (even if we’re not actually local - I certainly wasn’t when I was selected), and it’s the democratic system working. The same sort of variation arises over crime and ASB - I have constituents who have rarely experienced serious anti-social behaviour and feel that ASBOs are an outrageous infringement of freedom, as well as others who experience ASB every day and would like to see ASBOs on dozens of teenagers tomorrow. MPs for inner-city seats have many more of the latter type of constituents. It sounds trite but basically we have to exchange our experiences and try to find a reasonably middle course on these things.
56 You could read Frank Field’s website ( http://www.frankfield.co.uk/home.htm )and not realise he was anything to do with the Labour Party. Is this something driven by the campaign funding rules ?
89. The majority of MPs have references to their party in their websites…..
The influx of badly needed Euro labour does not seem to have caused serious problems - Councillors may know different but the addition of 9,000 temporary workers in Boston seem to have had a similar impact to the equivalent numbers of football supporters in Germany - ie a few incidents but basically fine.
They are of course balanced by the hoards of Brits leaving to live in Spain or Cyprus - though as the Brits often keep their houses here empty there may be an accommodation problem in some hot spots.
There is no accurate count of emmigrants - so treat all figures quoted with caution.
50-Fred
Frank Field talking sense as usual,the government’s own forecast (Blunkett)for immigration from eastern Europe was 9,000 to 15,000 versus actual figure of around 400,000 and against a background of at least 4 million economicaly inactive people.
Can remember similar common sense when he was Minister for Welfare reform,again not liked by the powers that be and at the same time put Harriett Harman in the shade (not too difficult though).
Nick Clegg jumping on the opportunist bandwagon,there’s a surprise,so trying to have a debate on an important issue which effects jobs,social services and cohesion, where the government’s own forecast has been proved to be hopelessly wrong is described as ’scare-mongering’,what nonesense.
91 although the age, demographic profile of the leavers tends to be different to the incomers with leavers not employment active and net cash withdrawers from UK.
As promised, here’s a quite up-date from Bromley (while I catch my breath):
There’s a real buzz here, best showing I’ve seen at a by-election for many a year. Mood seems to be very up-beat and confident and, in as much as I can see, I stand by my earlier prediction of a stonking “Con, Hold” tonight.
Remarkably little evidence of the Liberals on the ground, barring a patchily delivered leaflet going out this morning - I can’t imagine that this will have a lot of impact as many people will already have voted. Not convinced they are really taking this seriously - or perhaps the fabled Liberal by-election “machine” is rather exaggerated in its impact.
Will post again later if I get a chance, but now back to the fray!
91. You could quite easily substitute ‘cheap’ for ‘badly needed’ in that post. I remain intrigued that so many left-inclined people seem unconcerned about the wages of the constituency they purport to represent being forced down. Does this perhaps indicate the low opinion which many of them really have of working class people, I wonder?
Less provocatively, it is by no means clear that an influx of cheap labour is necessarily positive for the economy in the long run. By propping up low value-added activities it can actually hold back healthy structural change. We have been here before - the influx of Asian immigration into Lancashire after the war was a desperate attempt to rescue the failing textile industry. It did not succeed, and a generation or so later we have impoverised immigrant communities and serious racial tensions in some of the areas concerned.
86 - Agreed. Let’s be honest, as a Lib Dem I’d probably vote for the independents if I lived in Blaenau Gwent, and I suspect the same’s probably true of most of the Tory and Plaid posters on this site. I predicted in the competition that the Tories, Lib Dems and Plaid would get about 4% each, but I wonder if that might be a bit on the high side – it’s going to take someone pretty committed not to be tempted to switch to the independents under the circumstances.
89 – From a few people I know in Birkenhead, I’ve always got the strong impression that Frank Field has never had much to do with the Labour Party (despite briefly being a government minister). I agree there’s something pretty bizarre about not actually mentioning on his website the fact that he’s a Labour MP, though.
How (who?) do I contact to get a guest slot?
94 - Eleanor
I take it your refering to the inspired “good morning” leaflet?
It’ll be interesting to see what happens.
Try the link on the right - “Contacting Pb.com” then Click on Mike Smithson
93 - What about young people emmigrating to Australia? - The answer is, we do not know the figures.
52- no, Blaenau Gwent is by far the most important as it will decide whether Labour has safe control of the National Assembly. sadly for them, Trish is running for that, so it may be tough.
I have a friend getting the vote out for Labour in BG today…will tell you what he says later today. But to repeat…Labour are going totally crazy to win this back, and if the Independents win with no machine and little operation, they will have pulled off a big coup. Everyone I talk to say ‘the widow may well win’ but I hear little positive on Dai’s side. We’ll see if the people are astute enough to split their ticket.
” I remain intrigued that so many left-inclined people seem unconcerned about the wages of the constituency they purport to represent being forced down.”
It does very neatly demonstrate the difference between the Old and New Left. The Old Hard Left was primarily interested in class struggle, and the more moderate Old Left was interested in boosting the living standards of the working classes. It’s no coincidence that most countries began introducing immigration controls when universal suffrage came in, and socialist parties began gaining strong support.
But the New Left is different. In its more market-friendly form, it welcomes an influx of foreign workers, because business benefits. The more militant Left sees immigrants as fulfilling the same function that the working classes were meant to fulfill in the past (being in the vanguard of revolution) - unfortunately the working classes proved to be distressingly bourgeois in their aspirations.
87 - It’s quite easy to join the dots. Of course it takes considerable political understanding too…….
101.” Everyone I talk to say ‘the widow may well win’ but I hear little positive on Dai’s side. ”
Lord Rennard gave him sone hopes…but from his words, I got the impression Lab was ahead anyway.
101. yes, of course, for the Welsh assembly you are right. But, as far as Westminster goes, it’s a private Labour matter, unless the BGPC spread like wildfire in the valleys to seriously threaten Labour’s hegemony. Merthyr 1970 is the analogy. Who remembers Merthyr?
05 - “Who remembers Merthyr?”. I don’t - what happened?
Having waded in backing the Conservatives in B&C tonight, and reading Eleanor’s post at 94 on how well things are going, should I be mildly concerned that there’s still a few hundred quid available to back in a market that amounts to “free money” according to our host, or should I stop posting on here and snap it all up before someone else does? Hmm….
95 In my experience the first to complain about immigration are also the first to save a few quid hiring foreign workers.
If there wasn’t a market for farm labourers, carers, nannys, builders, plumbers etc. They would not come.
We have to get used to the fact the UK is now part of a common labour market and that our economy is continuing to differentiate itself. More and more, not all requirements of UK consumers are going to be provided by UK industry or workers.
Anyway, do we really want the English hoards on the Costa del Sol to come home? What would they do? They certainly couldn’t afford to retire here.
Rod and others are very quick to forget that in 2005 the opposition parties will have spent next-to-nothing in Bromley & Chislehurst, and this time both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP have sunk many tens of thousands into their campaigns, and even Labour probably outspent their 2005 campaign.
In the circumstances, holding the Conservative vote share would be a good result for Bob Neill, a reduced majority with the LDs in second place would be fine, and any increase on the 2005 vote would be an excellent result. Only if it becomes a seriously close shave would it possibly be a difficult result for David Cameron - not that it’ll stop deluded spinners such as Rod Crosby here from suggesting otherwise.
107 Andy D. Depends how desperate you are for a few hundred quid against the risk of a below the radar Dunfermline ambush by the Lib Dems ??
110. IIRC in Dunfermline Labour stayed favourite even when the returning office was reading the results.
Guido has another B&C exclusive. Puerile but funny.
Interesting position predicted for these national parties who are all ‘doing so well’. Lib Dems third, Labour fourth and Tories fifth!
Still, may be PB.C are collectively wrong? Godd set of food for the spinners!
111 Andrea. Indeed ….. one of the oddest political betting markets in living memory !!
BTW I understand that the Countess of Mar is doing a Bob M-A in the race to be HoL Speaker …. canny old bird !!
[109] Is there just a hint for some ex post facto rationalisation for a less than sparkling Tory result in B & C here?
The expectation has got to be that the Tories will do better than last time - gaining at least 50% of the vote, and several, perhaps more enthusiastic, folk have said 60% is a reasonable target for them to be aiming at.
I wonder if Mike’s comment that a bad result of the Conservatives -one where the Lib Dems get within 10% and the Tory vote % actually falls- might actually be more on the cards than most of us (Tabman aside) have forecast. Not sure how I can back this outcome easily though- the Betfair market seems very uneven. On the other hand perhaps the reason why the free money has not been taken up is that the market does not think that it is that free after all..
12. “the national press is NOT going to run any stories along the lines of “Bob Neill returned but with only 48% of the vote!’”
No Commentator, I am sure the Telegraph will be headlining: “UKIP moves up as Chamereon pedals backwards in Bromley and hits record low in Wales.” Well, y’never know!!!
[115] I’ve no idea what is happening in Bromley, I had planned to go down and help but the RMT on/off/on/off threats of strikes meant my plans came to nought.
I agree with Cicero. The majority will be half the [mean] 24.3 % expected here.
Jack -
Risking £593 on Betfair would get you £60 when the Tories win (£57 after commission). That is the maximum available backing the Tories - something I am physically unable to do.
107. Go on. Take my money
114. Jack, we’ve until the 4th july to do something…
Btw, Nick, do you know the NEC results?
115 Cicero. The difficulty with the Bromley market is the awful liquidity. If someone has a “Nick Soames” on the market then that’s a different matter, but so far the market is terribly thin.
IIRC the Dunfermline market only started to move to the Lib Dems in the late afternoon of polling day to a point where they were favourites for a short time. However the market returned to clear and indeed heavy Labour favouritism in short measure.
83. “I hope the (QT) audience raises the WLQ.”
Jamie If they do, Melanie Phillips will doubtless treat it as a ‘disgraceful attack on the peace-loving state of Isreal!’ !
119 Icarus. Fair point.
121 Andrea. I’ll have to find out if the Countess and Bob M-A are related !! … perhaps distant cousins of common thought !
122 Yeah- that is the trouble with most non-general elections. I can rarely get my positions to match because the liquidity or the price are out of whack, one side or the other. I might go an stick a cheeky little bet at 7.4 on the Lib Dems- Mind you I did have money on Spain against France, and I suspect that this will go the same way
106. In 1970, the 84-year old obscure(and possibly senile) S.O. Davies, long-serving backbench MP for Merthyr Tydfil, was de-selected by his local party, explicitly to make way for a younger man. An understandably miffed Davies stood against the official candidate and trounced him in the 1970 General Election. He had just over a year left to live, and when he died the seat was comfortably regained by Labour, without any apparent ill-effects to the party. Now it’s just an obscure footnote in textbooks….
back to By election tactics this link highlights an example of rather scurrilous campaiging
http://jajblog.blogspot.com/2006/06/vote.html
hat tip to Guido for that too
125 Cicero. I also backed Spain outright!! However I recovered the whole position and some during the France match.
I’ve had a Nick Soames on France against Brazil over 90 minutes, still available around 4/1.
110. Exactly Jack, despite my greedy wish to make a quick killing I guess you should never underestimate the yellow peril at by-election time, and now that the Tories have been backed into 1.06 I believe I will abstain and await tonight’s arrows instead…
106. S.O. Davies link…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/wales/4526753.stm
How much is a ‘Nick Soames’ and how did the term originate please?
Thanks.
129- I’ll leave that one to my brother in law (he is French…:-)). Bloody Hell, before I could stick my dosh down for the Lib Dems at 7.4, it has just gone to 9.2 !
Thought a Nick Soames was a term one of his girl friends orginated. “It was like having a wardrobe fall on you with the key still in the lock”
Was in Le Caprice some years ago (in Corbin and King days)- Soames was a couple of tables away couldnt stop laughing.
26. Thanks - a bit before my time. I suppose the other similar case was Eddie Milne in Blyth in 1974, who won after being deselected by the local Labour Party for being too outspoken about political corruption in the North East.
Nearly a Freudian slip. Orginated should be originated - sorry.
Re 108, Jonathan, Whilst we need builders farm workes et al. people have to be prepared to pay the wages so that people want to do the jobs. Of course if you can bring in any amount of immigration you like, then you don’t have to worry. The effect of all this is that there is an endless supply of labour holding down labour prices and allowing some people to obtain services at far below what the market value would otherwise be. Non of that is inevitable.
132 kjh. A “Nick Soames” is having a big lump on.
I have to advise its origin is of the Harpenden/Scottish variety.
133 Cicero. That’s life !!
Not sure of the difference between buying goods made by Polish workers in Poland and using Polish workers in the UK to provide services. If the first is OK then so is the second.
Well I can see some obvious differences, Icarus.
RE 139, the difference is fundamentaly that in the first they do not add competition to housing markets, for school places etc. In the second they do.