Will Murdoch switch back?
July 1st, 2006
Earlier in the week, Rupert Murdoch gave an interview to one of his own papers in Australia. Asked if there was a chance he would support the Conservatives in the next general election, he answered with a Majoresque “Oh yes”.
The role of Murdoch’s papers in swinging British elections, particularly the Sun, has passed into political folklore. “It Was The Sun Wot Won It”, the paper itself proclaimed after Major’s victory in 1992. More recently, and particularly since Murdoch’s mid-1990s switch to supporting Labour under Tony Blair, something of a revisionist thesis has developed: that Murdoch doesn’t use his influence to make politicians successful; he supports successful politicians to perpetuate his influence.
If you follow this school of thought, then you would expect Murdoch to survey the present political scene and move into “wait and see” mode: ready to make a judgement as events progress, but publicly musing on it well in advance (if he were quiet until the landscape became clearer, he would appear to be only following and not leading).
And the interview reflects exactly that:
“But, for no reason other than the dynamics of British politics, we would like to see at least a year to 18 months stand-off between Gordon Brown and David Cameron so we can decide which of those most coincides with our views.
“Those two are going to decide the next election and I think the British public would be cheated if they only got a month or two’s warning.”
The touch of genius is in Murdoch’s warning to Brown not to call a snap election. Given Brown’s famous prudence, this is rather like standing in the Sahara, shaking your fist at the sky in a warning for it not to rain, then claiming your powers have secured another dry day.
All in all, no real reason for this to move the betting. Some of the relevant odds are:
Largest party in next Parliament: 0.94/1 Con; 1.08/1 Lab
Blair departure: 7/2 2006; 4/6 2007; 4/1 2008; 12/1 2009; 40/1 2010 or later
Next Labour leader: 0.41/1 Brown; 7.6/1 Johnson; 18/1 bar
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson returns on 10th July.
MessageSpace Advertising
Ah yes, the Murdochian royal “we”
In fact, the only “snap” election in living memory called by a new incumbent was Eden’s in 1955, when the Parliament was three and a half years old anyway and the opposition had actually won more votes at the previous one…
BTW, is there actually any evidence that Sun readers stayed with the Tories in 1992 more than anyone else?
Murdoch did the same thing before the 2005 election, and the eventual endorsements were more lukewarm than in 1997 and 2001, while coverage was fairly balanced (in the sense that the Sun would slag off each side in turn, as they still do).
On this site we’re mostly ‘professional’ enough to accept this factor as something that has to be considered as a matter of course. But it’s interesting that this is now tacitly accepted in the wider media too, without any of the soul-searching that used to go on about “should an Australian/American intervene in British politics and tell his editors whom to support?” At one time, it was thought dubious even for British proprietors to tell their editors what to say, and I believe there is a clause in the deal over the Times which exempts them - the Times editor can dissent from the Murdoch line if he wants.
Partly, perhaps, this tacit acceptance reflects the spread of media, so that a few outlets are not quite as important as they used to be. But partly we’ve simply got used to it. I think it’s a pity, whether Labour benefits or not, and not just because Murdoch is not British. One of the fundamental problems of British politics is the savage slanting by nearly every newspaper in favour of their current editorial line, coupled with the fact that just a handful of people determine that line (whether it’s an unelected proprietor or an unelected editor). The Murdoch press is actually less predictable than most - in their different ways, the Express, Mail, Guardian, Mirror and Independent all present their own coherent world views which permeate every corner of the publications.
Can anything be done about it? Support papers who are less slanted, I guess. But eventually the internet will become the main news source and the issue will become moot.
Speaking of the Independent, today’s front page gets ever closer to self-parody: “Is the hysteria surrounding this match symptomatic of a nation in crisis?”
I doubt they’re going to describe, say, Brazil or Germany as being “in crisis” as a result of being enthusiastic about football.
While slagging off the lib dems continuously.
“BTW, is there actually any evidence that Sun readers stayed with the Tories in 1992 more than anyone else?”
I wish I could find the book that has the tables in, but IIRC there was a larger swing to the Conservatives amongst Mirror readers during the 1992 campaign than amongst Sun readers.
My cousin is a journalist for the independent and she has told me that all the major papers (except, obviously, the Mirror) are gearing up for David Cameron to be Prime Minister - that is, giving him more generous and more frequent coverage. Murdoch is, apparently, not stating his position yet so as to not commit himself to supporting one particular side, although it is alkmost certain that he will back the tories by the time of the next election.
[5] That’s what I kinda suspected - didn’t Sir Trevor Kavanagh once say (words to the effect) that he knew that what he wrote didn’t change his readers’ votes, but politicians didn’t?
[6] I’m told this is also true for the Beeb… (the gearing up bit)…
If there is any doubt about the pernicious impact of the Lizard of Oz’s Empire, have a glance at this article from former Deputy Spin Doctor, Lance Price, in this morning’s Grauniad:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1810266,00.html
Well, As for Murdoch switching (Where’s Face and MR T? BTW)
I hope so. We would be better off if Brown were to win without him.
or
I hope not. We would be better off if Cameron were to win without him.
SNP members have ranked the candidates for the list section:
http://www.snp.org/news/snp_press_release.2006-06-30.5965259272
Bashir Ahmad is second in Glasgow (Nicola is in first place) and he could become the first Asian MSP.
But bob. Why should they? That kind of rubbish makes me mad. The British people should be allowed to decide based on balanced coverage etc. What you are saying is that British journalists have decided that Cameron will be next PM and we all are going to go along with it. I once used the word on here ‘mediocracy’ half in jest, but what you are suggesting is that that is entirely true. Surely that is a perversion of the democratic ideal of a ‘free-press’ - the 4th estate as ‘guardian of truth(s)’, rather than a full scale political player.
5 - IIRC there was a poll after the 1992 election asking newspaper readers about their perception of their paper’s stance. A third or so of Sun readers thought it had supported Labour!
10,6.
There is an obvious gearing by the media for Cameron as next Conservative PM.
Also all the great and good of the British establishment are coming on board, just as with Blair in 94.
As one wants to keep power in house, to one of their own, which ever party is elected.
Only Major, was not part of the network, and he got his just desert, as many would see it.
[9]
JohnO. What a cringemaking story Lance Price tells and Piers morgan confirms in his book. I wonder if Brown realizes the support he would gain -including from News International readers I expect- if he told that American/Australian bigot what to do with his patronage.
2: “But it’s interesting that this is now tacitly accepted in the wider media too”
Nick, I agree it’s accepted as reality. The soul-searching has stoppe simply because IMHO almost everyone now accepts that it’s wrong, but that there’s little that can be done about it.
2. Good post Nick. I hope you’re right about t’internet becoming the primary source of information - will future generations be harrumphing about Guido’s support determining the outcome of 2029 election…?
Papers aren’t getting more inflential in terms elections as time goes by. Sadly they are in terms of policy
http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/tabloid_justice
15 Roger, I yield to no man in my fear and distrust if a Gordon Brown premiership (as opposed to, say, an Alan Johnson premiership), but he would have my wholehearted backing if he did as you suggest.
Disillusionment with Political Parties.
I am interested in Politics (otherwise I would not read the comments on PB).
However, at the last election I did not vote for Lab, Con or LD.
I would like to have a PR system of voting.
I remember voting in 1983 for the (SDP/Liberal) “Alliance”.
I believe that the percentage of the vote they received was higher than the number of MPs they had elected. This was clearly unfair. The Tories won the election. Did they address the issue of PR? No, but they did indulge in a fair amount of gloating and triumphalism. The message to all the “Alliance” voters was – “Get Lost”. Was the intention to alienate Alliance voters and make them feel excluded from the political process? It made an impression with me. I am not a big Tory fan.
When TB came to power in 1997 he made all sorts off hints that the electoral system was going to be changed. I was quite hopeful that some form of PR would be introduced. How naïve! It was just spin and PR. And some people say that TB is a con-man. Why did they get that idea?
The LDs have been greatly hindered in their development as a political party by not getting a “fair” number of MPs. They have put a huge amount of effort into improving their campaigning at the expense of developing their political ideas and philosophies.
Disillusionment with Con, Lab (and to some extent LD) would not be cured by PR. Until it introduced – don’t come asking for my vote.
20. Last line - However: until it’s introduced – don’t come asking for my vote.
21,
Don`t know where you live.
But threfore would you vote in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, or for the welsh assembly, which are both PR?
My feeling is that tabloids (except the Mirror) want above all to go with the zeitgeist rather than tell people how to vote.
They may well prefer to take an increasingly sceptical line if they think the ‘Plague on all your houses’ party is the one most in the ascendant. It’s interesting to see the Telegraph(not a tabloid but still) starting to ride that one already. I can’t really see the right-ish tabloids becoming drum-bangers for Cameron.
6 - All so reminiscent of the lines in Hilaire Belloc’s famous poem:
We had intended you to be
The next Prime Minister but three:
The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
The Middle Class was quite prepared.
Unlike Lord Lundy in the poem, Cameron’s unlikely to ruin it by being lachrymose.
Can I ask a question re Election 1992? Am I correct in thinking that as soon as the exit poll was released the pound plunged against the DM on the forex markets only to rally as the results came in?
20. I think a referendum on PR was a manifesto commitment of Labour’s in 1997. Funnily, once he had 400+ MPs behind him (or at least, taking the Labour whip), Blair seemed to lose interest in the project.
On the topic, I don’t agree that we’re in a media-ocracy at all. If anything, the papers follow their readers and the best they can manage is to influence the issues and course of the debate. With multi-media, the role of any one proprietor is less influential anyway - though as they tend to move as a pack, that might not matter in the bigger scheme of things.
However, working in the media’s favour is the dealignment of party politics. When the bulk of the electorate voted on lines of class, religion, family or similar, there were far fewer floating voters and therefore fewer to influence (although perhaps their role in influencing the election outcome was greater). Now people tend to vote on more consumerist lines, there may be more voters open to influence.
23. p.s. That’s not to say they won’t be more supportive of the Tories over Labour, but relatively mildly so. They won’t want to be associated with over-keenness.
26 - To be fair to Blair, while he was prepared to be mildly encouraging to PR, including appointing the Jenkins Commission, Brown and Prescott seem to have imposed a veto on the project. This is basically what seems to emerge from the Ashdown Diaries.
“Blow for Labour as poll puts SNP ahead”
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=959122006
Ipsos MORI/The Scotsman
(Changes shown are from Scottish Parliament Election 2003)
1st vote - FPTP
1. Scottish National Party 30% (+6.2)
2. Labour 28% (-6.6)
3. Liberal Democrats 19% (+3.7)
4. Con & Unionist Party 15% (-1.6%)
2nd vote - AMS
1. Scottish National Party 28% (+7.1)
2. Labour 26% (-3.3)
3. Liberal Democrats 19% (+7.2)
4. Con & Unionist Party 16% (+0.5%)
5. Scottish Green Party 6% (-0.7)
6. Scottish Socialist Party 1% (-5.7)
“If the poll figures were repeated at the election in May, Labour and the SNP would have about 40 seats each.”
“The poll, which surveys voters across Scotland every three months… “ Eh? First I’ve ever heard of it!
The SSP are finished now. Greens will make zero advances if this is near the truth: may even lose 1 or 2.
What will be very interesting, if a hung Parliament looks probable much closer to the election, will be the view that Murdoch takes about a coalition. If, in a post-election negotiation period, the Murdoch press is violently opposed to a Lab-LD arrangement, for example, it could have a great effect on the eventual outcome.
24. Thank you, Observer - I’d never come across it!
I see Lord Lundy had 1,500 jobs. Those were the days…
29 I think the natural end-point of the Welsh Assembly/Scottish Parliament is for them to be controlled by the Nationalists.
Compare, for example, the Quebec National Assembly. Although the Quebecois have not so far voted in favour of independence in a referendum, the National Assembly of Quebec has been long controlled by Nationalists. And it has been very beneficial for the position of Quebec within the Federation of Canada.
Irrespective of one’s views on independence, it is in the interests of the people of Wales/Scotland to have the Welsh Assembly/Scottish Parliament fall to the Nationalists. They just will be more aggressive in defending the interests of Scotland/Wales.
Thanks Stuart, very interesting and confirming the anti-establishment thrust of the last few days.
I note that there’s a 1.7% difference between the +/- on the FPTP figures. Is that the loss being incurred by the SSP offset by others gaining?
On the main topic, Murdoch hates liberal idea, as such any party leader who sucks up to him goes down in my estimation, they are just making a rod for their own backs in return for what? The support of the devil
?
(I think I’ll get to work on the lab/lib dem swingback figures to round out the picture now, Rod may try to deny that we now have a three party system or denigrate lib dem by election successes but I think that the figures speak for themsaelves).
Yes, I think so. I had noticed the same discrepancy and come to the same conclusion.
Re:22
I live in the Midlands. (In a Lab seat - Npton North). I will vote LD if they ever stand a chance of winning the seat. I would like to see all three of the main parties develop their ideas and policies and I should really consider a vote for any of them. However both Lab and Con have managed to alienate me, so that I have never voted for either of them.
Question.
When Conservatives moan about the way the current boundaries favour Lab rather than them. Are they being ironic?
7. Innocent. “didn’t Sir Trevor Kavanagh once say (words to the effect) that he knew that what he wrote didn’t change his readers’ votes,”
Deliberate dishonesty. Good leaflet writers know full well that they have an effect - and that is all the political input of theSun is, a bit of generaly very clever (when not talking about Liverpool!)leaflet-writing between the tits.
I could imagine a Blair/Cameron variation of that Kinnock front page with a couple of hot air balloons instead of light bulds. The headline would read: “Empty Gas Bags”
As for old King Roopey, he continues to model himself like some aged mediaeval warlord, roaming over the planet wielding totally disproportionate power/influence, allowing foreign concubines to weigh up for themselves his wealth against his age, stature and hypocrisy (for example the Sun historically (not so bad now)pandering to all sorts of ‘keep the country white stuff’ in the past while he and his clan were off round the world seeking to ‘dilute the race’ and then inseminating them, while his elder crown princes war among themselves.
23. Valerie. All the Telegraph are doing is biding their time waiting for a decent leader for UKIP, or some variant of it, to emerge - or maybe some ‘intellectualisation’ of the BNP? They clearly find Chamereon’s flip-floppery far too lightweight and nowhere near right wing enough, despite the traditional wish for Tories to achieve power at any cost.
36. ‘The Lion in Winter’ perhaps? rather a moth-eaten old lion though, compared with Henry II.
37. Don’t get your hopes up. I doubt the current Hefferlump sulk the Telegraph is in will last. It is very boring and is turning the readers off.
35 I think it is a long standing conservative principle that those who are privileged should be continue to be privileged, and if possible have those privileges extended.
Their moaning is ironic, but they are not being ironic. (I hope that is clear…)
38. “Lion in Winter’ ”
They lie in Summer, Autumn, Spring too!
I agree with your remarks about the Hellograph. They want to ‘tweak’ the Tory line a bit harder and would like to use their ‘irate readers’ to give their tweaking more power. The Mail is at it too today. But in the end they will both have to cool it if the readers show signs of thinking that the Daily/Sunday Princess Diana Fan-sheet is less-stressful reading. meanwhile the wicked witch of UEA (Mealnie Phillips) and other columnists will be used to tell the readers what the editors think the Tory leadeship should be teling them but (as yet) won’t.
I can’t say I care much for murdoch or his influence. I don’t like the idea of newpaper proprietors seemingly having a disproportionate say in what goes on.
On the Bob Neil front I have had some funny Libdems on my blog who seem to protest to much about MP’s having outside jobs, so I’ve written an article on my blog listing the 4 front benchers they have that do have outside jobs.
Matthew Parris has written another good commentary in the Times today. This time about the by-elections on Thursday (see http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2251597,00.html)
The gist of his argument is that the Conservatives are not yet giving their natural supporters a good reason to vote for them. He also gets in a dig at the LibDem campaign in Bromley, and Labour arrogance over Blaunau Gwent. A good read, though.
There is also a rather startling letter form a Mr Rod Barrett, Bromley, Kent in Today’s Telegraph. He opines:
Sir - Is it unthinkable that the Liberal Democrats could flip-flop their EU policy, as they have higher taxation, and become a genuine alternative?
However, I thought that the LibDems were already highly critical of the bad bits about the EU, while supporting the basic idea. Maybe they should publicise it more. It seems a reasonable balance between Euroscepticism and Europhilia.
Here’s a quick scamper through figures for lib dems and labour in bye elections and relating it to swingback.
79-83
14.08% swing from lab to lib dem (lib/sdp etc)
Swing in 1983 election 10.0% from lab to lib dem
Swingback 4.1%
83-87
6.26% swing from lab to lib dem (lib/sdp etc)
Swing in 1987 election 3.0% from lib dem (all) to lab
Swingback 9.3% (the initial heady days of the SDP probably contributing to this higher swingback figure)
87-92
0.83% swing from lab to lib dem (all. etc)
Swing in 1992 election 4.3% from lib dem (all) to lab
Swingback 5.1%
92-97
2.57% swing from lab to lib dem
Swing in 1997 election 5.1% from lib dem to lab
Swingback 7.7%
97-01
7.39% swing from lab to lib dem
Swing in 1997 election 2.0% from lab to lib dem
Swingback 5.4%
01-05
17.75% swing from lab to lib dem
Swing in 1997 election 4.8% from lab to lib dem
Swingback 12.9%
(the real outlier of this set, mainly because of a very small number of bye elections plus - and take your pick - disproportionate bye election results are becoming more prevalent, the Iraq effect, or the lib dem result against labour was considerably poorer than they could have been in 2005)
05 onwards
7.84% swing from lab to lib dem
….again a small number of elections but history suggests a minor swing away from labour in 2009/10 although recent history suggests a labour fightback. I’d take the 2001-2005 results with a pinch of salt however.
Adding it all up, this suggests that labour and the tories claw back from the lib dems considerably in subsequent elections (no real surprise there) and that in future bye elections they need to up the swings they are getting a little to ensure progress next time.
The Mori Scottish figures interesting though we could do with a couple more polls in Scotland to check their consistency . Any knowledgeable views on how this would effect the number of assembly seats - Max ? .
Any idea on who won the Byelection comp ?
42. The Parris article is marred somewhat by his description of Blaenau Gwent as part of England.
Parris is right: while there are many reasons to stop voting Labour — Iraq, the economy, crime, civil liberties or whatever else floats the individual voters’ boats — there is no reason at all, so far, to vote Conservative. We are not electing a president and will not simply vote for the party leader with the nicest smile.
“assembly” eh? … you are stuck in the 1970’s. Do you still wear flares too?
42 - Interesting article, thanks.
47 - Oops apologies Stuart slip of the fingers - never wore flares but did have a pair of winklepicker shoes in my teens LOL
45. Legally, it is….. Or more, precisely, England & Wales are one country….
There’s a really good tie-breaker on centre court right now. Something happening in Germany?
51 - I don’t think Cristiano Ronaldo’s going to be coming back to England after what he did….
Paging Mr Ferguson, you need to get a new player quick!
I realise now why the Tories nearly lost Bromley. Their best by-election team were in Gelsenkirchen.
As a sometime Liverpool fan I wondered whether Gerrard had his boots on the right feet, Lampard was as consistently useless as he’s been right through the tournament, Crouch continued to be outjumped by people seven inches shorter than him (when he wasn’t fouling them). Lennon was probably the best player on the park before Sven substituted his substitute looking to WIN ON PENALTIES! Did he manage Labour’s campaign in Dunfermline when he ran short of a few bob?
Typical English position - Loads of excuses: captain and ’star striker’ crocked. Star striker number 2 sent off. So of course the team (using this word very very loosly) left on the pitch played their hearts out in a hopeless position that they should never have been put in. Bit like the battle of the Somme. Full marks to Terry, Ferdinand, Cole (A) and especially Hargreaves for running his heart out.
53 - But Portugal were worse and deserved to lose.
I don’t want to hear it. Portugal are a fourth rate team. We should have won 3-0. 4-5-1 is the world’s most stupid formation, and the only silver lining is that Ericksson is gone.
I wish something political would happen to take my mind off it.
Tony Blair, now would be an excellent time to resign.
55 - Considering that Maclaren’s replacing him that’s nothing to be pleased about. Not the right appointment at all to have made.
The only silver lining is in Sven’s pocket or on Nancy’s pillow. There was a man in our pub who said he had a few hours free this month. . . .
Bin Laden has released a tape. Nope, still don’t care.
56 Commentator, 56, brilliant suggestion. All we need to do is make him think that his one way to get back in the public’s good books is to personlaly restore England’s football team. He could be sent ‘on loan’ for six months, after which I’m sure Gordon Brown would happily negociate the fee the FA would charge the Treasury for taking him off the government’s hands.
Ah yes, good news, no World Cup bounce, I knew there’d be something somewhere.
Also, seeing as Brown threw in his lot with the England team, expect a backlash in Scotland!
59 “Bin Laden has released a tape”
Reprise of the Saudi football team song?
Nevr mind, pretend you’re Dai Davies. Be happy.
Fox News is carrying reports of Trident submarines launching a nuclear attack on Sweden. At last we realise what our independent nuclear force is for!
61 No World Cup bounce. Right. I knew there was a real silver lining somewhere. No World Cup bounce for Labour…. greater sense of dissatisfaction, fed-up ness. Better polls for the Tories in months ahead.
Now I feel very, *very* slightly better.
Iain Dale’s blog has excellent take up on Sven. I agree with every word. Tak for nothing, Svine.
I am going to watch Brazil-France. Transferring my support to Brazil, but think Germany likely to take it. OK by me if they do, I have a German friend and they have put on a pretty good World Cup, good-natured.
As a cricket lover,I was saddened to read of Fred Truman’s passing away;RIP (Rest in Pavilion)
Fred Truman died?
What is this, National Sadness Day?
A great man - a real shame. I think I’ll just go and put on some Leonard Cohen records to complete the mood.
66 - Yes, my father was a cricketer and, being a fast bowler himself, Fred was his idol. As he said at the end of the estimable ‘Indoor League’, “I’ll si’thee”.
I don’t want to talk about the football. That said I do have Brazil in a sweepstake so my hopes are there….
Under the circumstances I though Iain Dale was very kind the Sven..
68,I’m not old enough to remember Fred Truman,but I do remember watching Bob Willis bowl for England as a boy;I recall he would be sprinting like a 100-yard runner at the end of his 50 yard run-halcyon days!!
If anybody has anything to say on politics, I’m up for it.
Wonder if Sean Fear or Andrea knows what happens in the polls when nations lose. Bet it will compound NuLab’s misery.
Recess Monkey blog has some stuff on the A-list.
May be a good time to back Andy Murray as sport personality of the year (who else is there?!!).
73 - Sven perhaps? ;-):lol:
I guess that means that Blair’s victory parade for the team is now cancelled!
ITV Teletext reports ICM Sunday Telegraph putting Tories 1 point ahead of Labour - no further details.
1 point ahead? Rogue poll
?77 - well, you would say that, wouldn’t you!
Well, there must be some figures around from previous polls, I wonder if Andrea is looking it up now?
I would because it’s true. We’ll see soon enough.
Guess the B&C byelection was a rogue poll too!
It does seem a bit odd for ICM, if accurately reported, to be coming out with a 1% Tory lead in the same week two YouGov surveys have produced Conservative leads in excess of 6 points. Even ICM’s last survey ten days ago showed the Tories five points in front. I suppose even they have outliers from time to time.
teletext saying tory lead cut from five points to one - ICM in Sunday Telegraph - fresh blow to Cameron it says - no other figures.
Allez France !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Especially @ 4/1
81 “Guess the B&C byelection was a rogue poll too! ”
Well it was a poll which elected a rogue!
Perhaps Commentator should be backing les bleus?
I always back Blue. My favourite rosette.
Rogue poll.
Rogue poll
. . . was sent home early for not being able to count all the yellow votes!
84 - Backed ‘em at 16/1.
88 ukpaul. 16/1 for the match ???? you mean outright surely ?
A French/Murray double up …
I may be scanning my vintners list later !!
Poor Wayne. He thought he was playing cricket with his mate Freddy. He heard someone (he thought it was the Umpire) call out ‘No Balls’ and did his best to comply.
Well that is my interest in the cup over… Brazil out as well.
89 - Outright, yes but that’s looking promising. Given that Portugal are dross and can’t score and Italy have shown nothing I wouldn’t be unhappy with a France/Germany final. A Portugal/Italy one may well be the worst one in living memory so that’s probably what we’ll be lumbered with.
91 Benedict. Brazil were dross and vastly over-rated prior to this match.
England were unlucky, a pretty awful ref and a dodgy sending off. I’ve looked at the Rooney “stamp” several times…… was it ?? Certainly the ref appeared not to taking further action the the matter. And if the red card was for the gentle push, then the ref should join Poll and retire. Not sure there’ll be too many xmas cards between Rooney and Ronaldo either.
93 - England were unluky, but to be honest we were poor throughout the tournament. We were never going to do any better than a quater final under Sven.
England out of the world cup, and France still in it. Worse still, France thoroughly deserved to win. Scots gloating.
England cricket team thrashed 5-0 by Sri Lanka, also deservedly. Prospects in the winter in Australia are NIL! Freddie Trueman dies.
Gordon Brown certain to become the next PM.
My holiday is booked for Portugal.
Does it get any worse than this?
Black! Black! Black! Black!
After a slow start, France look like the only class act left of the four. Portugal are tough and have a winner at the helm, but they have no real firepower. Germany have got the hosts two round bounce. The dark horses are now Italy - they haven’t had to play anyone really good yet, but you need luck to win a tournament. If it went to form you would have to say that France look like the only world class side left - but when did justice ever come into football - or elections for that matter.
93,
England have footbalers like Italy who cant take penalties under pressure.
Lost in three world cups like this.
Think it will be at least another 40 years, before we repeat 66.
Sven at least got us to the quarters and the tournament, unlike the managers 0f 74 78 and 94, who didnt even qualify.
These years are also comparable with useless governments!
Both Portugal and France deserved to go through. While I would prefer to see a Portugal/Italy final I think a France/Germany one more likely.
Was on to make good money with Argentina but backed Germany at 4 to 1 before the match to win the world cup as a cover bet. France were 10 to 1 before the quarter finals were played. Wish now I’d had some of that.
Would like to see the numbers for the latest ICM poll. Could be that with the return of two party politics that Labour have taken some back from the Libdems.
94 VfrSW. Not sure. France started slowly but you could see in the last game they’d started to grow as a team and were vastly overpriced at 4/1 against a poor Brazil.
Some of the England team are young enough for another tilt and I thought Hargreaves was magnificent …. he looked like he would run and run until Christmas for the team.
Sven has no tactical nouse at all, no enthusiasm or passion ( Sammy Lee was the only coaching staff member who was in the least bit agitated ) and could not motivate a lemming to jump off a cliff. The main worry is that his successor is the only clinically proven example of cloning having been a success. In my experience the best partnerships at the top of any organisation do not require clones but mutually respecting opposites who thrive on creative conflict. I am not looking forward to Euro 2008 as we appear to be copying the folly of this World Cup.
In terms of the telegraph poll - have not seen the details - one may only conclude that the Tories are down as Labour are not on a rising trend at the moment. Interesting to see if it is the Lib Dems or Others who are the beneficiaries as I can’t see Labour increasing their support.
Jack. Absolutely right about Hargreaves - slagged off before the tournament, put both Gerrrard and Lampard to shame today with his desire to win for the team - if only Sven had had the nerve to drop one of thosee Prem stars and play Crouch (or maybe even Walcott)up with Rooney in a 442 England would have beaten a poor and craven Portuguese side - oh and Lennon on the right. Sven has failed to learn one lesson from the highly successful foreign managers in English football - pace and power is the key to modern football - with a holding midfielder.
98 Could be that with the return of two party politics…
DC - If anything, the results from Thursday clearly confirm that 2.5 party politics if not 3 party politics are well and trully kicking.
98 - Still pedalling the return to 2 party politics line Darren . Shame the evidence is all against you . By the way much to my surprise when I calculate it the B/C combined % share for Lib Dem and Labour was higher than at the 2005 GE .
95,
Holiday could be cancelled or continual rain in the Algarve whilst you are there
Oil price goes through roof, dollar collapses and stag inflation in Russia due to floating of rubel.
Pound then goes into nose dive whilst you are away against euro.
Massive sir charges on air fares, backed by all politicains because of green lobby.
98- Yes Mark I am and I believe it to be true. The SNP could have a good By Election result but I wouldn’t predict a great future for them.
The combined Lib/Lab vote share may have been a touch higher than the GE and yes I am suprised at that. With the big drop in turnout and a good Ukip result, it looks to me like many Conservatives thought it nowhere near being a close contest so didn’t bother turning out or lent Ukip a vote. Also your guy was top of the ballot paper in a very crowded field.
Will probably get slaughtered on here for that last sentence…
I was also doubtful about the sending off. But Rooney should have known better than to get himself into a position where it was even in question. Nevertheless we seemed to play much better after he’d gone off!
104……and PB.com website crashes
104 - The new poll on voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament indicates you are incorrect about the SNP too .
Excuses excuses excuses . The one thing you can say is that it wasn’t dislike of policy that stopped people voting Conservative - your party hasn’t got any .
108 Mark. Ouch !!!!!!!! Saucer of milk for Mr.Senior.
109 Yes I’m very bitchy tonight Jack , Ladyfriend stuck miles away with car that won’t start . Seems immobilser won’t stop immobilising …. and its hot and sticky here .
After we lost to Germany in the Euros and the World Cup it was obvious what every red-blooded Englishman had to do - go and attack a Mercedes, or scrape his keys down the side of a Beamer.
What am I meant to do now? Go and sneer at bottles of Mateus Rose?
108- And yours will never get to implement any!
strong return of serve to the baseline on Senior’s forehand…Carreira runs up to the net ready to volley home Senior’s expected swift forehand…
112 - but the perfect lob leaves him stranded at the net LOL
112 ……… and gets a red card from the umpire who tells him that the Lib Dems are in government in Scotland, and thus Mark’s passing shot hit the line !!
DC You cannot be serious!!! , those tax plans hit the net …..
113 - But the ball falls just over the line and is out!
98 - “Would like to see the numbers for the latest ICM poll. Could be that with the return of two party politics that Labour have taken some back from the Libdems. ”
Would also like to see the figures. Could equally be that the Tories have lost ground to the LDs. Sound a bit more plausible to me than your thesis, which would require Labour to have had a good month. But we’ll see.
By the way, Ming’s comment on the B&C election sounded dangerously close to being a soundbite. So you can teach an old dog new tricks.
Are the Conservatives still planning to prop up a minority Labour government in Scotland after next year’s election ?
Glass of port, anybody?
117 - Nothing your lot haven’t already done eh, Mark? Despite pretending that you’re still in opposition with no responsibility for anything.
Good evening A H what are the chances of a byelection Beaconsfield way ? Is your seat in theory safer than B/C ?
120 -
Is that mean to be a threat of some sort?
Come and do your worst!
:lol: 
117- What like you used to despite being the fourth party at Holyrood?
Senior’s lob not high enough and Carreira smashes the ball straight back at Senior’s feet…
But incidentally - yes, Beaconsfield is safer than Bromley and Chislehurst, even before the by-election.
ICM for the Daily Telegraph:
Con 36%
Lab 35%
LD 18%
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/07/02/ncam02.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/07/02/ixuknews.html
124 - The Sunday Telegraph, rather.
That means the Conservatives are down one on the last ICM poll, Labour are up three, and the Lib Dems are unchanged.
116- SBS. Looks like I was right with Labour gaining from the Libdems.
Two Party Politics is alive and kicking!!!
It does seem to wind up the Also Rans on here whenever I mention two party politics…
DC - except that if what Alastair says is right, then Labour have gained 1 from the Conservatives and 2 from others - if the LDs have stayed the same.
The Lib Dems haven’t stayed the same though - the last ICM poll had them at 21%.
128. The last ICM poll had the Lib Dems on 21. The last time the Lib Dems were as low as 18% with ICM was April 2002.
130 - I do hope you are correct, but I thought the last ICM poll (for the Guardian) had them on 18% as well?
130 - Even better! Another Mingtastic opinion poll result for the Lib Dems then
128- Maybe Paul but there is a trend.
ICM poll 25th April 2006, just nine weeks ago.
25/04/06. Con 34, Lab 32, Lib 24.
Today. +2, +3, -6.
Can’t see the Big Boys losing a whole quarter of their support somehow…
132. But they might get a Bromley boost!
134 - Why? They did lose, you know.
134- Kevin, the plan is that they are meant to in order to enable Ming to survive as leader. We are doing our best to keep him there but he is not making it easy for us. It is concerning that despite our efforts to give them a boost in Bromley, there is no rise in the polls for them.
Even more worrying is the poll that says only 6% of voters think he would make the best PM. We need him in a 10-12 box for that and a 19-21% box for the Libdems.
These numbers have been carefully researched and are vital for (Operation Ming Cowley Street/Cameron Downing Street) to succeed.
You Conservatives will have to decide whethet this poll os a rogue one as per Commentator or a good one with the implication that Labour are still popular enough to be returned with an overall majority . Now try and speak with a united voice LOL .
137 - We need another poll to know whether or not this one is out of line, Mark - but based on the this week’s two YouGov polls it would seem to be a rogue. But even if it is an accurate reflection of current opinion, the Tories are only down one point while your lot are down three.
Saw Iain Dale on news 24. Jovial kind of chap, for an ex-Tory PPC, but surely the BBC can do better than this for a press reviewer? Is he supposed to be independent? More than once he said “we” when meaning the Tories.
The Tories seem very happy with themselves on this website tonight. May I congratulate you all on doing so well to hold onto the marginal seat of B&C?
138 Seriously A H I have been suggesting for some time ( I agree a pretty much lone voice ) that the opinion polls as a whole have not been giving the same message as real polls . Even the better ones for you such as the last Yougov ones say that Labour support is still at 90% of its GE level despite all the recent bad news . Personally I do not think this is credible though I have some thoughts as to why it is happening . Too late and too hot to go into all that now though .
139 - Ah! You wound us!
Also on B&C, I saw the post result speeches on the BBC website. What a dreadful new MP! Was not too keen on the Lib Dem either - a real hack.
But did the winning Tory not break etiquette by not paying tribute to his fellow Conservative Eric Forth? Bit like a best man not saying how pretty the bridesmaids look. Far too keen to spit a bit of “bad winner” angry vitriol.
As for his dig at who gives politics a bad name and creates disinterest, which party’s numerical vote went up? And which parties loyal supporters were disinterested?
137. Mark. I don’t answer to the description ‘you Conservatives’, but we can only decide if this is a rogue poll once we see the next tranche. If they continue to show a Con/Lab lead in the 4-7% range then it is probably rogue. The important thing is the difference between Con and Lab shares. Variations in the Lib Dem vote within their 17-25% box are of little consequence.
137;Does my thdory of ‘being good losers (for the Tories) grow stronger every day:
(a)I’ve just listened to some good northern rock music
(b)I am old enough and bright enough to apprciate that MONETARISM(Let’s bracket the word!) was the death knell to 1.5 million joba
(c_The Falklands gave Mrs.T a (TOTALLY undeserved)second chance
After all that,I am sure,as a 35 year-old,not alone in hoping the Labour Party suceed in keeping the f***ing Tory Party out for another 20 years-it has been said not enough Labourites pos:heres is an ‘A’lvel educated,normal sort of guy,(BTW,I am pleased that the Lib DEms scared the s**t out of Bob NEil)-I do NOT,BTW hate the Tories;I actually pity their party,for their precipitous fall-ah well!
“After all that,I am sure,as a 35 year-old,not alone in hoping the Labour Party suceed in keeping the f***ing Tory Party out for another 20 years”
If you want a police state, you carry on voting Labour then, Patrick!
Christ, the Tories have their faults, but I don’t think they totalitarians.
SBS is 35.
143 Kevin , you presuppose that the opinion polls are producing meaningful figures in terms of relative party standings , What is happening in real polls in the last few months suggests to me that they are not .
Memo to self - Don’t post after a few drinks.
144 - Patrick, you really ought to change that record of yours sometime - it must be terribly worn by now. I doubt there is anyone left anywhere in the blogosphere that doesn’t already know you’ve got an A-level in economics
144- You might be only 35 Patrick but you sound like you are firmly rooted in the past. The World has moved on. Resistance to progress is what causes many of the problems in the first place.
146 - Why not, Mark? The Bromley by-election was a mess for us, I will grant you - but Lib Dems of all people know that by-elections are special cases and often have no lasting national impact. The closest thing to a national poll we’ve had since 5 May 2005 was the local elections two months ago, and I’m sure I don’t need to remind you which of our parties finished well ahead then.
147 - Must be a case of Dutch courage for a poor old working class lad, Paul.
51 - Oy, I’m a poor old working class lad as well you know!
152 - Working class? Pffft! You live in Guildford for heaven’s sake!
By-elections. Hmm! The Liberal / SDP Alliance lost Penrith and the Border by a few hundred votes when Willie Whitelaw went to the Lords.
Has the seat been marginal ever since? No, not by a long way!
Is losing by a few hundred better than losing by a thousands? Yes, it shows the party is still a credible force (even when written off by others) and the 2.5 - 3 party politics is about.
Gentlemen, please. Some perspective on all sides.
Can i just say that statistically there is no such thing as a ‘rogue’ poll. Most opinion polls are calculated to be +/-3% @ the 95% Confidence Level. That means that the poll is only expected to be within those boundaries 95 times out of every 100 given an exact same sample of the target population - in other words it is [i]expected[i] that 5 polls out of 100 will give results outside of that MoE (CI). There is nothing, therefore, rogue about that survey it is just a statistical outlier.
Sorry to be pedantic - but the term is annoying.
146. Mark, I try not to presuppose anything, but I take a different view on the difference between national opinion polls and local elections and by-elections. In the last parliament Labour’s local election vote was consistently 10%-12% below its national opinion poll level. This year the difference was more like 6%.
53 - Well I do now but my roots are still ‘up north’. I grew up with an outside loo and being washed in a tin bath in front of the coal fire, honestly, I kid you not (and being a mere stripling of forty it was pretty late to be growing up like that!)
154 - Point well taken, SBS. Are there any Lib Dems about who seriously don’t think Bromley will return to it’s former status as a Tory stronghold come the next election?
I don’t see much prospect for a “Bromley boost” in the polls for the Lib Dems either - they didn’t get much of one after Dunfermline West and they actually won that one, remember?
158 Exactly A H , the May local elections were real and the actual Labour vote share in them was down 12.1% or 1/3rd less than they polled at the last GE not 90% .
On a secondary point this latest poll does not have to be a rogue . The M of E is such that there may have been no change in public voting intentions at all and all we are commentating on are changes due to different sampling errors .
Off to bed now - Good night all .
154- SBS. Ukip are the third party at European level but in reality we have returned to two party politics.
157 - You’ve come a long way then, my dear fellow. We’ll make a Tory of you yet!
159 - You may very well be right on the margin of error, Mark.
61 - at the moment, the only direction I’m going is into the abstain column I’m afraid!
To confuse the issue, wasn’t the B&C turnout rather higher than the locals?
I am just making the point that we should read nothing into any polls, by-elections or locals?