By-election competition results
July 3rd, 2006Landslide victory for ApRhys
Following the victories of Dai Davies and Trish Law in Blaenau Gwent, and the Conservatives just managing to see off the Lib Dems in Bromley & Chislehurst, the pb.com prediction competition has yielded a clear winner.
ApRhys (post 22) chalked up a comfortable win in the overall rankings, with his score of 21.7 being well ahead of Archibald Schwarz (post 55) in second place with 27.1, and Yet Another David (post 72) in third with 36.4. David Kendrick (37.5), Icarus (38.7) and pb.com’s local election columnist Sean Fear (39.1) made up the rest of the top six.
In the individual seats, Eleanor (post 12) won Blaenau Gwent (Westminster) with a score of 4.8, ahead of Gary Barford on 5.0 and Mark Senior on 5.6. In the Welsh Assembly election, Vino (post 42) had the best prediction with a score of 5.2, followed by ApRhys on 6.2 and Yet Another David with 6.7. Finally, Bromley & Chislehurst was won by Gary (post 56) with a score of just 1.7, with Reading Liberal in second on 5.9, and ApRhys with another “podium finish” in third with 7.5.
If anyone would like to see the full set of results, please email me at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk.
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Icarus in the top 6!!! All welcome for my celebrated Champagne and Claret cup and to meet my Granddaughter flying in from Oz on Thursday.
Icarus towers:
http://www.imagesofengland.org.uk/search/details.aspx?pid=1&id=392593
Lutterworth LE17 4DB
Do I get a prize?
Don’t think I was too far off the top 10 , Forecast on B/C let me down badly on the Con and LDem figures . Well done to all those who bettered me especially the top 2 who did exceptionally well .
Whilst nice to be mentioned in dispatches my forecast,like Mark, re B&C completely let my total score down – I was convinced there would be more of a protest vote to UKIP – I think [know] I was the only one to forecast them coming second especially with their well known candidate in Farage – the turnout amazed me, certain it would be 55%+ - every time I think the Lib Dems are dead and buried they come back and bop me!
4 - yes they are pesky little critters those yellow types. You have to keep spraying to keep them at bay!
2 Our eternal respect Sean, and buffers for your sage-like status.
#4 on UKIP I listened to the Guardian podcast today and Tania Brannigan mentioned UKIP spent over fifty thou on B&C. Given that, it was a disaster for them.
Luckily the blue meanies are dying out of their own accord!
Maybe I better not speak too loudly or Chad Noble will come here and start posting.
Have just returned from Council Meeting, via pub, to see that I had a landslide victory. As a LIBDEM Councillor I shall be working upon an appropriate barchart to use at my next election.
re 9: Congratulations ApRhys - but if I can interject a note of caution.
Your comments at 9 seem far too measured a victory speech (ok post)for today’s brand of poltics. Surely you were within your rights to have a pop at the underhand tactics of Archibald Schwarz in seeking to blacken your gues-timates?
And the posting behaviour of Yet Another David in scoring 72. Well words fail me.
A Lib Dem councillor? Pity.
re 10: Surely everyone knows that LIBDEMS are congenitally incapable of any other than a measured assessment of each and every situation - has anyone ever known Lord Rennard to overegg the pudding for instance.
Having predicted a Lib Dem victory in B&C, I eat my slice of humble pie but I wasn’t too far off the Con & LD shares. Labour let me down there.
Blaenau Gwent (Westminster): 29
Blaenau Gwent (Assembly): 40
Bromley and Chislehurst (Westminster): 14
Can I ask how I ranked in each seat?
I’m not surprised that I was nowhere near. I think it is only fair to admit that there was a large amount of ‘reverse ramping’ on all sides. Sean Fear was about the only honest Tory in recognising the true dynamics.
Some of the posts on eve of poll and the day itself fom Tory posters were magnificent in their ignorance of what was happening on the ground.
The Lib Dems tried out a number of new techniques in Bromley - so the result was partly guess work on these new techniques. It was in the interest of the Lib Dem campaign that the bar for the Tories was set higher then last time (and also the reality for them).
The few Tories who knew what was happening on the ground (Rik W included for once) knew that they were struggling - hence the bizarre entries of Tabman reckoning 60% for the Tories and Rik W reckoning 45%!
What this proves? That this site is at its best when partisan considerations aren’t used to manipulate its debate.
When this site is simply used for puffing/ramping it provides no insight at all. I think the good thing about Bromley is that some of the more gung ho contributers have had their fingers burnt. Long may it continue!
15- Dan. ” The Lib Dems tried out a number of new techniques in Bromley”
Don’t tell me they played fair for once!! That would be novel…
I thought the Tories were trying to change their image….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uklatest/story/0,,-5928744,00.html?gusrc=ticker-103704
Oh dear!
Throughout the count, my sampling of the ballot paper bundles suggested that the Lib Dems would win by c. 5%. I think that the Returning Officer and the two main candidates must have conspired amongst themselves to fiddle the figures to make my projections wrong just to make me look silly. I wouldn’t put it past the Illiberal Undemocrats to engage in a shabby trick like that.
17- and what is wrong with having a good evening out?
18 - are you the same Loony John from Croydon giving Clive Bull advice on football last night on the LBC?
14 - Harry, your rankings were as follows:
BG Westminster 74th
BG Assembly 78th
Bromley 13th
18. But were the Tories ahead on the postals? Were they not verified earlier? Your sampling might have been right.
The LibDems for instance won Hodge Hill on the day, but were well beaten in the postals.
22 - I believe the number of postal votes was well down on the GE ( I seem to recall someone mentioned 4,500 ish ) but the Conservatives were ahead . Certainly my interpretation of Lord R’s customary Emails to Lib Dem members asking for help was that he was expecting a decent 2nd place but not to run the Conservatives anywhere near that close . That was my reasoning for my ( wayout ) forecast of Conservative and Lib Dem vote shares . Don’t know if this agrees with other Lib Dem members used to reading in between the lines of Lord R Emails .
20. Yes.
a.k.a. the “I predict” man
a.k.a. the national anthems man
a.k.a. the sad old git on Iain Lee’s MMM who says “Bonjour Madame” and “do re mi fa so la ti do” and quotations from Enver Hoxha and mooing various tunes and lots of other things.
22. The postal votes (4,500 by Tuesday, another 400 on Wednesday and a few more 00 on Thursday) had the Conservatives ahead, but only marginally so. My interpretation of the PVs was that I assumed there was a big swing developing in the last few days, and even before I started sampling votes at the count, I was expecting the Lib Dems to overtake the Conservatives by Thursday evening.
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