Can we believe Campbell on Blair’s departure?
July 20th, 2006-
Does the ex-PR boss KNOW that Blair will be out in September 2007?
This week’s Spectator, out this morning, is carrying a report about a chance conversation between the ex-editor and now shadow minister, Boris Johnson and Alistair Campbell which seems to confirm that Tony Blair will step down at the 2007 party conference.
The political column notes “At a coffee stall inside Lord’s cricket ground on Monday, two customers bumped into each other with a start. Alastair Campbell and Boris Johnson have not met since No. 10 Downing Street took this magazine to the Press Complaints Commission for exposing Tony Blair’s attempts to interfere with the Queen Mother’s lying-in-state, but that subject was not raised. Mr Johnson offered the usual icebreaker — when will Mr Blair resign? To his surprise, he was given a straight answer: ‘A year and a bit.’ It is now all but official: Mr Blair intends to leave the stage at next year’s Labour party conference.”
Even accounting for the heat and the charged nature of the atmosphere on the final day of the first Test against Pakistan it is hard to conclude anything other than Campbell knew exactly what he was doing.
He is too professional an operator not to have been aware of Johnson’s reputation. In June 2004 the colourful Tory caused by ripples when he wrote about a conversation he had in the Mall on his bike while stopped at traffic lights with fellow cyclist, Jonathan Powell - Tony Blair’s Chief of Staff.
Asked by Johnson about relations between No 10 and the Treasury, Mr Powell is reported to have said: “It’s a Shakespearean tragedy. Gordon Brown is the guy who likes to think he’s going to be king but never gets it. He’s never going to be prime minister.”
The most improbable thing about that story was the idea that two cyclists should stop at the same red lights!
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Although Campbell stepped down as Blair’s media supremo in September 2003 he has continued to be closely involved and was back at Downing Street during the General Election campaign. If anybody is in the know about the date then Campbell, surely, would be at the top of the list.
But before punters rearrange their betting in the Blair departure market there’s the current police investigation into the cash for honours affair to take into account.
Andrew Grice in the Independent reports this morning that “..There is a shiver going down the spine of No 10,” one insider said yesterday. “The paper trail is proving stronger than the police expected. They are pretty good at persuading people it is in their best interests to talk.”
It would be really good if a betting market could be devised on whether or not there will be charges arising out of this investigation. There’s a big division of opinion and it’s the sort of thing that punters would put money on - either way.
Mike Smithson
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It’s a bit indirect, isn’t it? The Spectator says that Boris says that Alistair says … Too much scope for misinterpretation or misinformation along the way. Not convinced a firm date has been set yet.
On another subject, weren’t we expecting an ICM Guardian poll?
Nick 1. Normally the Guardian ICM poll comes out in the third week of the month - usually on the Tuesday - and I’m surprised that it hasn’t appeared. In June it came out on the 20th.
“A betting market on whether the police will lay charges?” - this investigation is about tackling corruption in public life, not increasing it!
It’s a typical Campbell response - adds nothing to what Blair has already said whilst giving the impression of being a direct answer.
Year and a bit? How long’s a bit?…..
I reckon AC knows the pressure on Blair isn’t going to allow him to stay on for that long. Cambell doesn’t make mistakes. Neither would he give a scoop like this to BJ. My guess is that Blair is going to go much sooner-possibly a year sooner-and this was a much deserved poke-in-the-eye for Johnson.
I’m a bit dubious. It’s hard not to be cynical about Alistair Campbell – if he says something it’s something that he wants us to hear, but whether it’s true or not is another matter. It’s also worth pointing out that, despite his carefully cultivated reputation, Campbell doesn’t always know everything – it’d quite possible that he doesn’t actually know what Blair is going to do.
Currently ‘the date’ seems to shuttle between Conf 06,May 07 and Conf 07.
I’d agree with Nick P that by and large these ‘exclusives’ always seem to be 2 0r 3 steps removed from Blair/Brown and are difficult to discern in terms of purpose or accuracy.
For Example my brother in law knows someone who works for Brown and he said that this September was the date.
Though this is a good bit of gossip beyond that im not sure what use it is to anyone and I feel a similar rush followed by frustration at various pronouncements in the media.
Self aggrandisment aside im not sure Boris johnson’s ‘fact’ is any more informative than mine.
The only thing I think the spectator piece does add is more evidence that nobody seems to think beyond 2007 is credible anymore.
At a Tory fundraising dinner, at about the time of the Bernie Ecclestone affair, I said I thought Tony Blair was the kind of guy who could end up being charged with a criminal offence, to hoots of derision.
A couple of days ago when Levy was arrested someone who was at the dinner rang me up to remind me of that conversation.
What I said then was that Blair is very relaxed about lying, he can quite easily delude himself into believing that what he is doing is ‘for the best’ even if it means bending a rule or two.
It’s the same affliction that big time business fraudsters like Ken Lay have - they honestly can’t see that what they are doing is wrong as long as it ‘gets the job done’.
Ernest Saunders, Robert Maxwell, Jeffrey Archer…. and Tony Blair.
[8] Not to mention Tommy Sheridan! Already a good day, when the the perma-tanned hypocrite TS gets nailed. Off for a jolly lunch to celebrate in the Old Town of Tallinn…
Technical question on the Betfair Blair Switch Market. Is the date in question when Blair resigns the leadership, or when someone else is elected as a new leader? It does actually make a difference of course, as the leadership contest could take a while and Blair will still be in charge during that process in my mind.
It’s funny that leaders never know when is the right time to go. Thatcher’s poor reputation is in some part due to her having to be dragged off in a straight jacket kicking and screaming. And if Blair had gone six months into his third term we’d have been spared the proof of what a feeble leader he is in the face of George Bush. Though his enemies believed it anyway most supporters and neutrals didn’t. And for some this’ll be their abiding memory.
What no 10 is really worried about is that next year’s local elections will be the trigger so by suggesting Blair will depart at the following conference it gives him a breathing space, with the option to stay longer if things are going a bit better (unlikely!).
[11] Well, they think that thay are indespensible and, in the words of Empress Theodora: “Imperial Purple makes the best burial sheet”
9 - Ah! Fair Tallinn! I’ll be there in three weeks time. Just my eleventh visit… beers at Klosteri, dinner at Olde Hansa…
Cicero, when are they adopting the Euro - is it next year? Guess, this will be before the other Baltics (who should not really have been let in the EU, IMHO).
Marcus. I bow to no one in my zeal as a reformed sinner now I have seen the truth of what Blair is really like. But your post is way over the top and you shouldn’t post stuff like that with no evidence. Leave that to the stupid posters of which you are not one.
[14] And hangover in Kolm Naegu Mees as I have today…
SBS- why not join the British Estonian Society? Contact the Embassy: http://www.estonia.gov.uk for application form.
14. Why shouldn’t the other Baltics be let into the EU? Just curious…
[17] Err.. Latvia and Lithuania ARE in the EU. Estonia and Lithuania might have been in the Euro in 2007 but, according to the ECB, they have not met the criteria (that BTW, is a debatable point, but there you go) So probably they will adopt the Euro in 2010, and perhaps Latvia, which has a different currency system, might make that date too.
[14] Mind you, according to one survey in the UK, about 15% of brits thought that Narnia joined the EU in 2005…
Does Roger even read his own posts.
Yesterday he was spinning that John Major sent his son to Eton, which he also claimed IDS had attended.
He regularly repeats allegations about Michael Ashcroft that were based on a plot by number 10 and reported by a so called journalist with a cocaine problem, which had it gone to court would have been a sensational trial.
Finally anyone who has the temerity to appear on radio or TV and question NuLab is dismissed as amongst other insults “pompous boor”, “buffoon” or “slimeball”.
Roger might feel that he and his fellow public school twerps on the Guardian are somehow in touch with the nation - he and they are not in touch with anything beyond their own tiny ever revolving circle.
In a funny way the ongoing criminal investigation could persuade Blair to stay longer. When he’s no longer PM, Yates of the Yard might be prepared to be tougher than he is now. Blair might need the protection of high office.
Actually I think Marcus is right; Blair does seem to have something in his character that could lead him into trouble - he’s quick to lie and full of self righteousness - and like the others that Marcus mentions - extremely charming. That makes him the sort of person who thinks that he’ll get away with it.
Estonia is far more go-ahead and advanced that Latvia and Lithuania. Being smaller it is easier to absorb. It is also in some ways “a Finnish colony”, and Finland is already in the EU.
I do have concerns about the rights of Russians in Estonia and Latvia ( - there are very few in Lithuania - 8%). But things are getting better, especially in Estonia (where they make up about 45% of the population).
I see Irish Gaelic is being made an official EU language. This is seriously expensive, but I would have thought the two or three million native Russian speakers in the Baltics (many of whom speak no other language) have a better case. It’s not their fault that Stalin encouraged them to settle there 50 - 60 years ago.
19 -
Clearly Lewis was just ahead of his time… and it would give the beavers something to talk about 
I’m out of sync by a day!
Didn’t have time to post yesterday and it was on my favorite topic as well, however I did want to respond to one request:
Matt, you asked if anyone used ads in their leaflets. We certainly do and I’ve seen it in many other areas. We find it a good way of subsidising leaflets (we even managed to run one at a small profit of exactly £1!!!) and it is easy to organise. For obvious reasons we avoid election expenses periods. I’m not sure we need to, but even if ok it is an extra complication.
Nick/Mike - ICM delayed their poll a week at Easter (to avoid the bank holidays presumably, which tend to do odd things to polls) and since then seem to have continued to do their monthly polls at monthly intervals - i.e. a week later in the month than they used to.
Marcus. I bow to no one in my zeal as a reformed sinner now I have seen the truth of what Blair is really like.
congratulations on finally opening your eyes roger but Marcus’s wasn’t a stupid post. Armando Ianucci used to satirise Mr Tony Blair and all his Blackshirts in the late 90’s. I recall many conversations with my dyed-in-the-wool socialist sister who thought Blair was a crypto-fascist with criminal tendencies. I agreed with her on the former but not the latter. I now think she was right.
Blair will never leave Downing Street voluntarily and I still think he might even run for a fourth term - unless Cameron is consistently 10 points ahead in the polls by next summer then I wouldn’t be surprised if Blair decides to go for it.
[22] Well, the Russian speaking population is not that big in Estonia- about 30%, and why should the Estonians or the Latvians make Russian an offical language? Gujarati and Panjabi are not official in the UK. There is only one country where Estonian is the official language- and if you don’t want to speak it, then you can always go to Russia, if you insist on speaking only Russian there are loads of Russian speakers there.
26. The truth is probably slightly less exciting…. sadly
Roger at 15. “you shouldn’t post stuff like that with no evidence”
Like it or not, knacker of the yard have already arrested Tony Blairs main man, Lord Levy and there is open speculation that Blair will -at the very least- have to answer plods questions and may end up being a witness, if criminal charges are brought.
The idea that our Prime Minister (a ‘pretty straight kind of guy’, remember?) has let himself become that close to *any* criminal investigation -much less tells you everything really, does it not?
20. Pot and Kettle. Ouch!!!
26. “Blair will never leave Downing Street”
I just pictured Downing Street as a bunker with Tony and Cherie inside!
Re the issue about Blair and the truth. I loved the Norman Tebbitt comment a couple of years ago that “Blair is not a liar because to be a liar you have to be able to distinguish between truth and falsehood and this is something the Prime Minister appears unable to do”.
How good to see the Campbell comments because we can now contemplate a Gordon Brown become PM within a relatively short period. It cannot come early enough because then we can start attacking the policy-lite Cameron who has been allowed to get away with murder because of Blair’s reluctance to go on the attack.
Bring on Gordon. Roll on a fourth term for Labour. Life is good.
27 - can’t remember where I got the 45% from. I believe the figure in Tallinn is well above 30%. Whatever, the figures are far higher than for Gujarati and Panjabi in the UK, and there are many Russian speakers in the Baltics who grew up there when their language was official there, but now find it is not. I expect that if it is still an issue in 20 or so years, Russian will become an official language.
I’m not sure the Russia would let these people move to Russia, but they’re probably better off in the Baltics.
Would kill for a nice cold glass of Saku now. And a Vana Tallinn chaser, perhaps…
Marcus -”What I said then was that Blair is very relaxed about lying, he can quite easily delude himself into believing that what he is doing is ‘for the best’ even if it means bending a rule or two.
It’s the same affliction that big time business fraudsters like Ken Lay have - they honestly can’t see that what they are doing is wrong as long as it ‘gets the job done’.”
I think this is an interesting point you make Marcus and I’d agree with it.
I read Anthony Seldon’s excellent Blair biography over christmas and he repeatedly emphasises the Barrister/actor as a key component of TB’s personality and his tendency to rely on his own powers of persuasion .For me this chimes with what you are arguing.
31 - I usually call that a good mood Andrea!
Of all the baltic states my own favourite is Lithuania - the birthplace of our glorious leader Vladimir Romanov. Who slightly worryingly has just bought a nuclear-powered sub-marine!
35 - What does he need one of those for? Going to sit it in the Forth, permanently aimed at Easter Road?
35 - never been to Lithuania, but Estonian beer is far superior!
The Scottish Tories call for next years Holyrood and local elections to be held on seperate days and not just 3rd May :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5197296.stm
35. Max, yesterday I was even smeared by a LD…he called me a “high horse”…horse? Me an horse?
I would have preferred to be called a peafowl!
Btw, ConHome has the Eltham shortlist.
38. Jack, are they saying that voters are too stupid to use 2 different electoral systems in the same day?
40 - but even the Holyrood elections require the voters to use two different systems, candidate vote and party list vote.
Marcus. Throwing all that stuff at him “Close to a criminal investigation”….”Arrested his main man” ……”Speculation that Blair will-at the verry least-have to answer Plods questions”….is a pretty lazy character assassination. None of it amounts to anything yet and certainly doesn’t deserve the Mickey Spilane treatment you have given it. ..
Anyway I don’t any longer feel comfortable having to defend him. Surely you can do better than that?
40 Andrea the Horse. Would a political party be stupid enough to imply the voters were stupid ??? ……. Shirley Stuns Miss Stoke ??
40 - Andrea – I’m sure it was intended as a compliment. The horse is considered sacred by Lib Dems – featuring prominently on all election literature. Strangely they only ever appear in pairs – one of the great mysteries of British politics!
44. Max, not sure. The horse was high (I want to tell that well, sorry, but I’m not Charles Kennedy) and too much to bear. Bear? Sorry, a mistake here too, better ask Oaten and Hughes if they’re into bears too (but I think they prefer twinks)
Roger, I recognise your discomfort in defending Blair. In isolation I agree being next on the list for a polic interview is not, in itself, a political hanging offence even for a Prime Minister.
Having said that it’s hard to imagine that if there is enough evidence to make it worth arresting Levy then there is a lot of evidence of wrongdoing. If there has been wrongdoing it’s imnpossible to imagine how Blair could not be implicated in it.
But anyway, it’s not in isolation, is it? Teflon Tone has a string of previous ’situations’ that he has escaped from already.
And I don’t mean trivial matters like Cheriegate, I mean Mittal, Ecclestone, Hutton.
My post at 46 is completely garbled, that’s what happens when you take a phonecall halfway through posting.
It should have said
“If there is enough evidence to make it worth arresting Levy then there is a lot of evidence of wrongdoing. If there has been wrongdoing it’s impossible to imagine how Blair could not be implicated in it.”
Lithuania is well worth a visit.
Vilnius old city is well worth a visit and the locals are very welcoming.
[22] as Irish Gaelic is an official EU language tricksy Irish folk are using it to demand Gaelic translators when they get arrested. Nice loophole.
In 1939 Russia invaded Estonia (as well as Poland). Within 1 year they had killed 10% of the population including the government. The killings continued under Stalin until well after the war. Please find out more before voicing simple opinions.
Marcus and others: like many hardened critics you routinely conflate “I disagree with Tony Blair”, “I believe Tony Blair to have been proved wrong” and “Tony Blair lies”. Rik W, to pick a well-liked poster at random, has sometimes been proved wrong about things. So have I. Do you call us liars? No. To lie to is to know that X is true and to deny it, and this is not just unproven in TB’s case but in my opinion false.
This matters, because if we sling this sort of accusation at each other, we reinforce the public perception that we’re all liars. Politicians are, for the most part, simply people whose every utterance over years is recorded, scrutinised, and weighed for inconsistency. They routinely pick the most favourable arguments and ignore snags (because opponents and the press will seize on any admission). They very rarely tell a deliberate lie, partly because in our current climate it’s almost sure to come out. Convincing oneself of a mistaken belief is another matter, and extremely common, not just among MPs.
46 Marcus. Is your second para part of the new Conservative thinking on a Bill of Rights ? …….. PC Plod says you’re banged to rights by association, end of story.
27 - Maybe the Estonians/Latvians politicians would make Russian an official language if the Russians in both countries weren’t denied political rights. How either of these countries are in the EU when they discriminate and deny rights to those who speak Russian is beyond me, especially when the Russians concerned aren’t immigrants, they’ve been there for over 50 years. If Belgium can have French and Flemish as official languages without issue, there is no reason why Estonia or Latvia can’t do the same. No doubt Estonia and Latvia will reconsider their position on discriminating against Russians when Russia becomes more powerful in the world.
[27] In 1939 Russia invaded Estonia (as well as Poland). Within 1 year they had killed 10% of the population including the government. The killings continued under Stalin until well after the war. Please find out more before voicing simple opinions.
Perhaps the solution is to have a democracy? If the people of Estonia want Russian (or German, or Arabic) as an official language, they could vote for it.
Perhaps Luke M (probably Russian) would like to help finish off Stalin’s work. There are people like Luke M everywhere, causing trouble, ever seeking a greater Russia.
Russians in Estonia and Latvia do have some grievances, but they are pretty minor in the scheme of things.
All the Baltic states were ruled with a rod of iron by the Soviets, so some degree of resentment towards their former masters is inevitable.
49 - the Soviet Union, under Stalin, a Georgian, brought unimaginable horror to the Baltics, I agree. Stalin was evilly brutal to the Balts and the ethnic Finns (Inkeri) in Russia. (My wife’s mother’s family were exiled to the Arctic and then to Siberia; many Finns died in labour camps). Unfortunately, we cannot rewrite history.
The present day legacy of this dreadful period in Baltic history is a large number of ethnic Russians in the Baltics. What should be done with them then? Should they be “deported” to Russia, a country they have never lived in? Or should they, and their language enjoy an equal status?
50 - but Nick, Blair might not have done the Jackie Millburn story but he did do the ‘I ran off to the Bahamas’ story; a completely unnncesaary falsehood - Norman Tebbit was right about Tony Blair; when Blair says a thing he believes it must be true because he said it.
You’re right to point out the subtle difference between this and lying but to paint the PM as a Billy Liar figure is no more helpful to him than others on the left calling him a lying war criminal.
Having said that, seeing him respond to Ming Campbell at PMQs shows that Blair is still a better PM than Brown will ever be and I see no sense in the Labour Party dumping him in favour of a Marxist misery guts with zero personality and a scary smile.
51. Jack W. No no - not at all, I should have said ‘…in this case’.
It is impossible to imagine, in this case, how Blair could not be implicated in it because only one man has the power to offer peerages to people and it’s him.
Nick P “To lie to is to know that X is true and to deny it” .
You may genuinely believe Mr Blair thought that there was the danger of our forces in Cyprus being 45 minutes from a WMD attack but the rest of us don’t, I’m afraid.
You may genuinely believe that Blair made an honest mistake when he told the Jeremy Paxman on 20 April he had not seen the Foreign Office legal advice that the war would be illegal when we now know Mr Blair had seen the Foreign Office advice as early as 8 March 2002, but I don’t.
In fact you may believe that Mr Blair ‘is an honest kind of guy’ but very, very few of your electors do.
Back from lunch, but still nursing a vile hangover- too much Saku (and A. Le Coq) last night.
Luke, I think you have it wrong, Estonia and Latvia are very successful democracies, come and see (beautiful at this time of year BTW).
The Russians are integrating reasonably well, and although quite a lot of them are not full citizens at the moment, a steady stream apply and get Estonian citizenship every year, and only about 15% have no knowledge of Estonian.
As for history, it is almost indiscribable. Everyone in the country has close family members who were shot, or taken to Siberia and never came back. From being richer than Norway, they were impoverished by the occupation to miserable degree. The occupation was one of the blackest pages in a history not noted for its jollity. As I write, I can hear Russian music, and no one objects. Things are pretty good here.
58 - that is all very encouraging! Estonia has always been relatively wealthy, and its biggest problem seems to be British stag parties, a disappointing run of Eurovision entries since sinning and Finnish booze-cruisers these days.
22 - making Irish an official language of the EU was not that expensive - about £2m pa is the estimated cost (not all EU documents will be translated). Spain reached a compromise for its regional languages where they were given a lesser, working status but Spain met the associated translation costs. Probably not a road Estonia will go down. The main effect of making Irish an official language will probably be to make it easier for Irish people to get jobs at EU level (where they can now use Irish as a second qualifying language where two are required).
Re 49 I’m not aware of any loophole whereby Irish people can demand Irish translators when arrested .. surely this depends on need rather than whether a language has official EU status or not? (Except in the Republic itself where all people have the right to conduct their business, including legal cases, through the Irish language if they wish.) I think a case has arisen in Belfast recently where a woman was arrested and demanded the right to answer questions in Irish - eerily reminiscent of a scene in ‘the Wind that Shakes the Barley’ for anyone who’s seen it.
Nick must be correct. What is perceived as a lie by someone may easily have been an honestly held opinion to another. But isnt there a different problem with acts genuinely though to be legal which in retrospect are found to be illegal.
The party funding problem is a good example of the problem. Both parties thought that their interpretation of the law - that a commercial loan does not need to be reported - was correct may be challenged in the courts. If, nod and a wink “we will call it a loan and change it to a gift later” is found to have been illegal, and is found to have been approved by Blair or Brown or Howard, then is ignorance of the law, the law that they introduced, a reasonable defence?
57 Marcus. How the Tories have the front to complain about cash for coronets is beyond me. We all know that Labour and Tories have been flogging peerages to their donors for decades. And frankly I don’t care as it means my taxes aren’t funding you all.
Only marginally less amusing is the Lib Dems attitude of stuffing their allocation with superannuated ex councillors and the odd former MP.
60.” making Irish an official language of the EU was not that expensive - about £2m pa is the estimated cost (not all EU documents will be translated). Spain reached a compromise for its regional languages where they were given a lesser, working status but Spain met the associated translation costs”
yes and some MPs would like the UK government making the same thing with Gealic:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=31083&SESSION=875
and Andrew George, Hemming and Leech would add Cornish too:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=31128&SESSION=875
Would not read too much into Campbell’s comments.
1. Blair may not have made up his own mind.
2. If he has, he may change it.
3. He may not tell Campbell.
4. Campbell was put on the spot and may have said the first thing that came into his head; does it really matter to Campbell if it is accurate or not (unless he is a betting man).
The date of TB’s departure is so hard to call. Every time we think we are getting closer to knowing, something throws us off the scent.
Bush leaves the White House in January 2009. Blair will surely have gone by then, but TB could go any time before then.
63 Andrea the Wonder Horse. You’ve clearly had your oats this morning !!
52 You really have to look at this issue in the context of those states’ recent history.
Ethnic Russians may have some legitimate complaints about their status currently but there is reall no comparison with what the people of those countries went through under Soviet rule.
Having been there, worked with some of the younger politicians, and seen the pace of change, I suspect things will normalise over time.
Regarding Blair, I would tend to use the term ’snake oil salesman’.
Given that he has a sensitivity which appears to be denied those on the other side of the Atlantic and, given that he is sitting on his hands whilst Lebanon burns, all for the sake of two Israelis, I wonder how he manages to sleep soundly (I suspect that he doesn’t).
The inaction of the west in the face of Lebanon being destroyed purely because Israel seeks to hit out at someone instead of the Palestinians is deplorable. It is something many of us in the west will not forget easily but, more importantly, it is another recruiting agent for hardline Islam and terrorism.
If only to stop Israel sowing the seeds of its own destruction you would think that ths US would do something and, for our sake, we need someone to lead the UK who does not crumple before the bizarre and muddled priorities of a US government.
61 It is interesting that the Tory and Labour Parties ‘thought’ that commercial loans didn’t need to be declared while the Lib Dems ‘thought’ that they should declare the equivalent of the interest as donations and did so.
60 - I think the Irish language question followed on from Malti (as I think Maltese is correctly called) becoming an official language. English is an official language in Malta, and some questioned the need for Malti to become an official EU language.
However, whereas people may read newspapers or watch TV in English (and Malti) and many official documents are in both languages, the Maltese speak Malti to each other, with a few English words thrown in.
Out of interest, how many Irish Gaelic speakers do not know English to native standard?
69 - I would guess none.
69 Very few. I doubt if there are any adult Scots Gaelic speakers who can’t speak English. I believe there are c.100,000 Welsh speakers who don’t speak English.
Trying to make Cornish an official language is bizarre. It’s been defunct for centuries.
71 - Ha no, speak english poorly perhaps, but there are plenty of monoglots who speak english poorly.
ethnic Russians have no complaints. They have full rights and if they wish, they can have an Estonian passport. Truth is, those complaining, and they are a tiny minority, dont want to. That minority see themselves as Soviet. And the reason they dont go back to Russia? Because they know they are better off where they are.
It is only a handful of old communists moaning, egged on by Russian agitators. It isnt as if Russia isnt big enough already. Truth is, Estonian Russians are integrating well.
Ironically, Grey Passport Russians have more rights than Estonians. As resident foreigners, they have full travel and work rights throughout the EU. Estonians dont.
Interesting article. I note SBS’s comments at 64.
Even is Campbel is right, in that Tony thinks a year and a bit, he may change his mind, or may be forced out.
Personaly I don’t think Blair will go of his own accord. Also these investigations are getting closer and closer to the seat of power. It could get very messy for labour.
AS for our policy in the Lebanon, there is an interesting article in the times here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2277822_1,00.html
Umm… Hezboulah seems to not be very damaged, whilst the Lebanon is. A recruiting sergent for terror if ever there was one. On the other hand, the Lebonease government have been working on a political solution. After all if the Israelies could not defat Hezboulah by force of arms before 2000, why does anyone think the Lebonease government can?
[67] Its Israels fault [click]… Its Israels fault [click]… Its Israels fault [click]…
68 - it is interesting that the Liberal Democrats ‘thought’ that taking £2.4 million no questions asked was a good idea and upon finding out that the money actually belongs to HSBC it is interesting that they ‘thought’ that it was OK to hold on to it on the grounds that most of it was spent.
No point trying to spin party funding for any party, none of them come out of it very well; its just that Labour come out of it worst.
Marcus, isnt complaining about conservatives, and cash for coronets, because he is blind to that reality.
It is reported that some conservatives are uneasy about the Police attitude to this, as they believe they are just going through the motions,to show even handness, but are singularly concentrating on Labour.
Neil - I thought that both the Tories and Labour declared the interest. There seems to have been some second thoughts on the rate of interest that was considered commercial however, didnt some loans have their coupon increased. Are the Tories still not releasing some loan agreements on the grounds of a secrecy clause?
My point is that normally ignorance of the law is not an acceptable defence, but in this case is the offence mitigated by the claim that a reasonable interpretation of the letter of the law (clearly the spirit had been drunk and swallowed long ago) was that the loans were non declarable.
75 - Apologising for Israel in this particular instance is a knee jerk reaction of the worst sort. Maybe you don’t watch the news, read the newspapers or have any contact with the real world, if so then I apologise. If you do then I suggest that you react to the situation at hand not to fall back onto your obvious prejudice.
Gordon’s Baby Blues ….. as finance figures are the worst for the month of June in history :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5197958.stm
71 -I’d be very dubious about the figure of 100,000 Welsh speakers who don’t speak English. There may well be this number who speak Welsh better than they speak English, but I’d be very surprised if there were any significant number who don’t have a good enough knowledge of English for all day to day purposes. I knew a couple of Welsh speakers at college who occasionally came out with odd phrases which were clearly the English translations of the way in which something would be said in Welsh, but it could hardly be defined as not speaking fluent English.
The figures tend to be skewed by pro Welsh language groups who tend to encouage as many people as possible to define themselves as Welsh rather than English speaking, for largely political reasons.
Jack w at 62. Actually I don’t buy this idea that ‘you’ve all been selling gongs for years’.
I am certain that there hasn’t been a previous post war PM who has directly rewarded donors with titles, Labour or Tory.
I think the whole question has really only arisen since Jack Straw gerrymandered with the law on political funding in 1999 to try and cut off what they have always seen as a Tory advantage -our ability to raise money from the wealthy.
So to me what is as important as the legality of what has been allegedly going on there is the shocking lack of morality and Hypocrisy of a Government trying to circumvent it’s own legislation.
82,
Cant believe you are so naive, but then again, direct no, thats the point to prove, indirect every PM.
Quite honestly, this whole question is never really going to go away so long as the leadership of political parties have the power to nominate people to the House of Lords.
The simple fact is that the leaders of parties are not going to nominate people, however talented, to peerages unless they (or their advisors / colleagues / friends) know and trust them. And what’s one of the best ways to get known by senior figures in any party? Give large amounts of money, preferably on a regular basis. It won’t actually “buy” you a peerage, but it will get you regular access to the people who make the decisions. If you then seem to be competent, it’s quite possible that your name might come up in conversation when these matters are being discussed.
Is that corrupt? Not exactly, it’s simply what happens if we have the membership of one of the two houses of parliament largely based on patronage rather than elections.
Why don’t they just stick ten gongs on ebay twice a year and be done with it.
The money raised could pay for a school.
[85] And why aren’t we allowed to sell our votes there, while you’re at it
70 I am pretty sure the Lib Dems were following advice from the Electoral Commission when they declared the interest on their (much smaller) loans.
76 And the Electoral Commission checked those donations out and approved them. If the Lib Dems could reasonably have known about the yet to be made accusations against Mr Brown then clearly they probably would not have accepted them. But unless you know otherwise I’m don’t think there is any evidence that they could have known.
“The simple fact is that the leaders of parties are not going to nominate people, however talented, to peerages unless they (or their advisors / colleagues / friends) know and trust them.”
Did Charles Kennedy trust Jenny Tonge?
82 Marcus. Period 2002 - todate. I’m sure the following substantial donors to the Conservatives party have many fine qualities. Quite coincidently they now have a parking space in the House of Lords :
David Garrard .. Robert Edminston .. Johnathon Maland .. Irving Laidlaw .. Stanley Kalms .. Leonard Steinberg .. Greville Howard .. Michael Ashcroft.
The list is equally impressive for the Labour Party.
I could go back for to the early 80’s and find such coincidences …. strange old world !!
David Garrard - isn’t it about time he gave some money to the Liberal Democrats. After all, it is our turn!
91 SBS. Indeed …. there’s nothing like covering a few bases !!
89 - Hardly for me to say, but I’m pretty sure he knew who she was!
86 - You mean we’re not?
Anthony Wells has put on his site the latest Yougov Brand Index Daily Tracker survey on attitudes to Party Leaders . Not good news for Cameron or indeed any of the major party leaders . Interestingly I took part in this survey last night presumably just too late for this set of figures .
Just too late Mark! The data is up to Tuesday.
Jack.
All of them have been activists and supporters for years, decades and in the case of Marland, Kalms and Ashcroft they are senior party members now; I think all of them have been active at the top of the party for ages, active politically and active fund-raisers.
If they are rewarded for service to the political party that is fine by me and no worse than long serving MP’s or other activists getting knighted.
Nobody is pretending the system is perfect and that there isn’t a great deal of cronyism and patronage, that is another question entirely. It becomes corruption when there is an open deal “pay me X and I’ll get you a Knighthood, pay me Y and I’ll make you a peer”.
I am certain that this is NOT something that has happened in Conservatives circles, amongst other reasons because “… far too vulgar, dear boy.”
88 - If the LDs had undertaken some basic due dilligence they wouldn’t have found it difficult to obtain information on Michael Brown that would have rung alarm bells.
Depending on what time of day it was Charles Kennedy might or might not have accepted the money anyway but we’ll never know. If you want to bring the Electoral Commission in as a defence then both the tories and Labour can do the same. I suggest you take your arguments to a LibDem blog where you can all discuss how to raise the money to pay back HSBC.
But Marcus I can accept that for meaningless gongs - like Bafta awards and OBEs, but it cannot be right for legislators to be nominated, members of both chambers should be elected. Cabinet ministers could conceivably be unelected but then parliament would have to behave less like party whipped poodles.
71. There is an additional problem with Cornish - which of the several different revived forms of the language would you choose to make ‘official’ ? The different factions of the Cornish language movement (aka the Judean People’s Front) have been fighting each other over this for decades…
97 Marcus. You are quite correct they have been “activists and supporters for years”. But then so have tens of thousands of others.
Indeed our very own Matlock has been so and waits patiently for the call to serve on the red benches …… seen any flying pigs recently ?? and if you have and its got a fat wallet in the Tory trough, I’ve a funny feeling it’ll be Lord Trotter of Pigham some time soon …… Tory 3 wheeler anyone ??
98 - if the Lib Dems do pay HSBC for the money Brown gave, the financial state of the party will be far less parlous than either of the other two. The Lib Dems currently have no deficit.
“Depending on what time of day it was Charles Kennedy might or might not have accepted the money anyway but we’ll never know” - this is an extremely valid point. I do not think Ming would have accepted the money, and this sort of issue represents very clearly a reason why CK had to go.
102…. I think that is bizarre conjecture to say the least.
Not only is losing your party allegiance liberating but for the first time you’re able to see things with some balance. As a party devotee I was furious with Prescott; not because I care less about croquet or his mistresses but because he was causing Labour’s poll rating to go down.
I don’t really see Blair as a crook but at last I can see his judgements for what they are. Pretty indefensible.
I don’t think I’m going to like Cameron. Just a little too slick and mannered. And it seems to be getting worse. Campbell wasn’t good on newsnight but I don’t think his personality has much effect on the party.
But what a breath of fresh air it is to be able to see John Reid for the crypto-fascist he is!
102. What would the deficit be, post a repayment to HSBC, as a percentage of annual revenues (or the average over an electoral cycle)? this might be a better measure of the relative financial position of the party compared to the other parties.
102 - Apparently not, and I think talk of this bankrupting the LDs is wide of the mark; there’s enough cash one way or another to pay it back.
It will however mean that if there is an early election it will be hard for any of the parties to afford it - with the tories perhaps having the most money available.
I can’t help thinking that nomination can in theory be a worthwhile supplement to elections.
When the HoL is reformed the last thing we need is yet more Westminster style elections, which attract a really narrow class of increasingly freakish candidates who have little real democratic credentials themselves.
I like the way nominations broaden the legislature to include people who would never stand at a GE.
I wish we had an open way of dealing with people who want to buy influence to stop them going on to the black market.
“I like the way nominations broaden the legislature to include people who would never stand at a GE.” - to some extent I agree. Olivier, Cowdrey, Bragg (Melvyn, though why not Billy!), PD James, Puttnam… all very positive stuff for the Lords. Bit of variety; something for everyone.
However, there appears to have been systematic abuse of the system when people like the Labour candidate defeated by Peter Law go to the Lords so easily. It’s not just the cash donations that constitutes the abuse.
104 Roger, that’s not fair. You have now ruined PB.Com for the thousands who logged on in expectation of your Panglossian take on life under Bliar and his cronies.
I know it’s better for you to be able to rid yourself of party prejudice but some of us will miss the old Roger.
98 Kingbingo , I would remind you that as with the Natwest 3 , Michael Brown has not been found guilty of anything at this stage and there is no obligation either legally or morally for the Lib Dems to pay any money to HSBC or anyone else .
I love Blair. Prescott is a genius. Milliband is… interesting.
Re 104, Roger, what about Blunket?
Besides which I think you are being a bit hard on facists
Whilst we are on ths subject of Honours and Party Politics, please could I use the opportunity to voice support for the re-introduction of OBE’s etc for local councillors? Honours used to be given for political services and for services to local government, but the Labour Party scrapped them in a fit of priggishness and moral superiority (that was when they were going to reform the honours system and the House of Lords, i.e. a long long time ago.) There are numerous councillors and party apparatchiks who toil diligently for years, with no expectation of reward or advancement, who add a lot to the quality of British life; I wish this was recognised, rather than the accomplishments of various minor celebrities, actresses and sportsmen.
Roger: LOL - you’ll be dancing naked in the garden soon, with your newfound liberation!
Has hug a hoodie caused the Cameron bubble to burst?”
New thread on the YouGov daily tracker.
Greetings All,
I have been a lurker ( hope that term is not misinterpretated!) for many months. I have posted before (twice I think) under the simple name John.
FWIW my view ( on the main thread of today) is that the story is probably true but frankly
(a) There is no guarantee Cambell was not just having BJ on.
and ( b) As one poster said How long is ” a bit”??
108. SBS - agreed; the ‘promotion’ of useless time servers, although not corrupt, does little to strengthen the legislature either. But it’s difficult to see a way around this, unless nomination powers are removed from the party leaderships altogether - or perhaps the number of new creations is strictly limited in any given year.
116 - I hear that they have found a Dodo in Mauritius as well!!
Unfortunately it had been dead for a few hundred years. But a Northern Tory - that is nearly as good!
Hallo Northern Tory. We don’t meet many of those.
When I See An Elephant Fly
I seen a peanut stand
And heard a rubber band
I seen a needle that winked it’s eye
But I been done seen about everything
When I see a elephant fly
I seen a front porch swing
Heard a diamond ring
I seen a polka dot railroad tie
But I been done seen ’bout everything
When I see a elephant fly
I saw a clothes horse he r’ar up and buck
And they tell me that a man made a vegetable truck
I didn’t see that, I only heard
But just to be sociable I’ll take your word
I heard a fireside chat
I saw a baseball bat
And I just laughed til I thought I’d die
But I been done seen ’bout everything
When I see a elephant fly
But I been done seen ’bout everything
When I see a elephant fly
(With the wind)
When I see a elephant fly
08 – I doubt Billy Bragg would be interested in a peerage, given that he’s spent a fair bit of time and effort campaigning for an elected House of Lords over the last few years.
I’m also rather dubious about the argument that being (say) a very good cricketer or actor is any more a qualification for having a seat in parliament than being a former cabinet minister would be for selection for the England cricket team, or to play Hamlet at the National Theatre. David Puttman may be a very decent chap, but I don’t really see why his views on reform of the NHS or European policy should be regarded as any more important than anyone elses.
Perhaps the House of Lords should be like Juries. Full of ‘everyman’
(But it helps if they can afford to do it for the glory)
Mark Senior - Brown has not been found guilty yet; but as the Lib Dem leadership made no effort to find out where his money was coming from they were at best stupid to accept his donation. I don’t think moral obligations hold much sway so, when the time comes it’ll have to be a legal one. At £30 a head it shouldn’t be too difficult, provided members understand this is on top of their normal donations/subscriptions. If the leadership’s understanding of finance is indicative of the membership then this concept might be hard to grasp.
The difference with the NatWest three is that they agree they made the transaction but believe it was legal; If Michael Brown accepts he made the transactions at all then he is guilty of fraud. His habit of running off is why he is being held on remand. The Natwest three have secured bail. There is no link between them , as you are well aware.
I genuinely cannot understand why some people think that the Lib Dems are in some way to blame for accepting the money from Brown. He approached the Party, they ensured that the funds came from a UK company as required by law - and that’s it. They were under no obligation whatsoever to carry out a “due diligence” exercise - any more than the Labour Party was for funds from Robert Maxwell, or the Conservatives were for funds from Lord Ashcroft. These are political parties - not commercial operations. OK, I agree, money from certain sources can lead to awkward questions (especially for the Lib Dems - remember de Chabris?), but “pecunia non olet” (money has no smell).