Comments thread on ICM poll data
July 25th, 2006For some reason the comments facility on the previous article does not work. Please can we use this one.
MessageSpace Advertising
MessageSpace Advertising
For some reason the comments facility on the previous article does not work. Please can we use this one.
politicalbetting.com is Digg proof thanks to caching by WP Super Cache!
Testing
Election All Nighters to end?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5212542.stm
I think this is a good idea personally. Look at Northern Ireland for instance. They’ve been counting the following day since 1987 (at least) and their turnouts have always been higher than mainland Britain.
The address for the previous thread ends in ‘respond’ not ‘comments’, is that a factor?
I think that it was the apostrophe that did it.
I hope this has something to do with Brown not being prepared to tout his new baby round like some must have fashion accessory as Cameron and Blair did
“the Chancellor just two points behind the Tory leader.”
two ahead surely?
“Amongst the women… Brown -25%: Cameron -2% - the Chancellor 23% behind” 23 points, no?
The next-day counting and the higher turnouts in Northern Ireland could well be linked - both because of STV.
Roger, I didn’t exactly see Brown beating the camera crews away from the hospital with a pointy stick. Unfortunately most politicians make a thing about births these days - Brown will try to make at least some capital out of the new member of his family.
The level of Don’t Knows on this ICM data seems very low compared to the usual approval/disapproval leaders’ ratings, in which you get c.40-50% of those polled still unsure what to make of either Cameron or Campbell.
Do people regard Brown/Cameron/Campbell as un-Prime Ministerial because they don’t want (or, in Ming’s case, expect) the parties they represent to form a Government?
re 8. That’s a very good point Stephen which I hadn’t noticed.
I have no explanation.
Given that the respondents could have voted for more than 1 of the 3 putative leaders and the very low figure for Don’t Knows it is fairly remarkable that the positive figures in all 3 cases is around 5% greater than their party’s recent poll figures and the results show virtually no cross party voting allowing for 10% others who may have expressed an opinion .
There is a point at which figures become meaningless and this poll is close to that point.
Certainly it’s a totally unfair question as far as Ming is concerned - I just don’t think the public really look on Lib Dem leaders in the same light as the Tory/Labour ones so no wonder so few see him as a potential PM.
As far as the Brown - Cameron figures are concerned I’d say that the marked pro-Cameron feelings amongst women voters will, I am sure, turn out to be really relevant in the long run.
My biggest lie-awake-at-night-wondering topic is just who makes up the near 40% of voters who have been staying at home? I have become convinced (no evidence whatsoever) that this group is disproportionately female and under 40.
Are there any detailed figures for non-voting?
11.”My biggest lie-awake-at-night-wondering topic is just who makes up the near 40% of voters who have been staying at home? I have become convinced (no evidence whatsoever) that this group is disproportionately female and under 40.”
According to MORI analysis, there wasn’t a big difference in gender turnout last time: 62% among men and 61% among women.
In terms of age the turnout was, as expected, lower among people with less than 34 years.
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2005/rp05-033.pdf
(page 63)
Andrea, and anyone else out there - What is your biggest lie-awake-at-night-wondering topic?
13 - The forthcoming football season is what keeps me awake at night at the moment. 9/1 Hearts is excellent value by the way!
13. Thanks to Tabman, yesterday it was Ming
Two days ago it was “what’s this noise is coming from?”
15 - Mine is “”Will there ever be a boy born that can swim faster than a shark?”
Hmmm, Andrea, I’m worried for you. I’m pleased to say the thought of Ming has never kept me awake at night. David Laws, perhaps, but…
Like every proper Liberal, it’s pondering the mathematical perfection of the Single Transferable Vote that keeps my mind churning until the early hours.
Max
I worry about Hearts as a way of not worrying about more important things. It’s a good sanity break - and last season was the best soap opera in football history. I can recommend following Hearts to people who should really take a break from thinking about politics all the time.
15. ops, I meant “where”, not “what”. My former English teacher will despair if she reads it
17. Duncan, I know it’s worrying…but thinking at David Laws at night isn’t very pleasing either!
14 - you’re throwing your money away even at 9/1 for Hearts. Unless they can somehow irradiate the opposition using mad Vlad’s newly acquired nuclear sub.
But then I support the green half of Reekie.
This is not a rogue poll; it’s a daft poll.
Have 88% of the public got a firm opinion one way or the other on Ming? I doubt that number have heard of him. The figure for Cameron is 91%. We, on PB.com, all know who he is, but do more than 9 in 10 of the public?
Were prompts (ie. which party) given as to who these people were? I guess they must have been. If so, I think it is an indicator of party support more than anything else. let’s compare to the party support data when it comes out.
“as to who these people were… leaders of”
Oaten to step down at next election (shock)
23 - Local election results finished him off. Media career beckons - he’ll do OK for himself.
Guess LDs will try to hold Winchester (which they should now he’s gone) and hand Meon Valley as a gift to the Tories.
21 - Although your points have validity i suspect that more people are aware of who they are than you suggest. The polls that generally find low recognition of politicians are those which involve people “guessing” the name given the party and/or a picture.
Give them a name and ask who they are and i suspect they will make the connection better. And most people will probably be able to offer an opinion of them, even if it is an opinion based on ignorance or prejudice. As long as this ignorance and prejudice does not change significantly in the heat of an election campaign then the results could have some relevance, even if opinions on what they indicate may differ.
The bigger problem with these polls is arguably the extent to which they fail to weight the results accurately.
24 - Why should the LDs hold Winchester? Surely he benefitted from a large personal vote secured in the aftermath of the rerun in 1997?(which was quite quickly returning home).
26 - no real reason why they should, but I think they are likely to. Hampshire will be interesting. If the Tories are to win in Winchester, though, they will need somebody better than John Browne or Gerry Malone.
John Browne?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Browne_%28UK_politician%29
John Browne was the first Tory MP to be deselected in decades. Failed to declare business interests.
Not forgetting that a significant chunk of Winchester will be in the newly formed Meon Valley division next time-it remains to be seen the calibre of the Lib Dem and Tory candidates
23. Will Ming make him a Peer next time? Lord Oaten of Sh*ttygate?
29 My Goodness! Was it really 1992 that he was deselected? It doesn’t seem that long.
I used to live in Winchester when it was a Conservative fiefdom. I remember seeing the gradual rise of Liberal, then Alliance, then LibDem power there. First at the council, then in Parliamentary elections. In my area, the councillors were very good, and established the Liberal/Alliance credibility.
I used to think that if the LibDems could beat the Conservatives in Winchester, they could beat them anywhere. But no, the Tories are made of sterner stuff!
27, 32, I say bring back Rear Admiral Morgan Charles Morgan-Giles - that sort of tom-foolery never happened in his day as MP. I trust the expanded A List will have a quota for old sea dogs
34 John O. Indeed let’s get the sites very own sea dog Admiral Penketh in for the vacancy at Esher & Walton !
23 That is good news for George Hollingberry who should take the seat for the COnservatives!
35 - which seat? Winchester or Meon Valley?
Andrea - any news on the Clubs’ appeals over there yet?
37. Not yet, Julian. The verdict is due tonight and reductions are expected.
33 The old Admiral seemed to have been the MP for ever!
You are quite right - he would not have stood for all this nonsense.
One of the old school. Well off, but had seen some of life. Not like these young whippersnappers these days. Come straight out of university, and get a job as a political helper somewhere, then a job at party HQ, then become an MP.
Professional, Career politicians. Living in their own closed world of theory and fantasy. Those decent MP’s who came from a life outside of politics 24/7, must despise them.
Btw, Oaten said he will concentrate to help the Third World now. He would like to focus on human rights and third world development issues.
40. Good for him! The guy gets a bad press, but he deserves respect for this.
He’ll do more of value out in the real world, than sitting on the LibDem back benches in Halitosis Hall.
I used to work for John, or rather Major, Browne’s tailor. There was a story, truth unknown, that he once came into the shop to buy a saddle and requested a member of staff get down on all fours and wear it so he could try it for size. Needless to say, he was told where to get off.
37. Julian
Juventus: Serie B and -17 points next season
Milan: serie A with - 8 next season
Fiorentina: serie A starting by - 19 points next season
Lazio: serie A with - 11 points next season
35 - “That is good news for George Hollingberry who should take the seat for the COnservatives!”
And would you not also have said the same if he had announced that he was definitely standing again, and had been reselected?
35/36 Rik/SBS. “Winchester Bugle” … Breaking News ……..
There was dismay in Winchester Conservative circles tonight when Mr Rik Willis gave the party the kiss of death after tipping the Conservatives to win the seat at the next election. Sometime political napster and noted millinary epicurist Mr. Willis was unavailable for further comment and said to be on extended secret reserve military service in the Shetland Islands !
Conservative PPC Mr George Hollingbery on hearing the news carried on the tradition of the present MP and said “Oh Sh*t !!
Re 6
Paul, There’s no legal reason why we have elections on Thursdays- just tradition. I believe the date gravitated to a Thursday in 1935.
Maybe if they moved the day to a Saturday, they’d get a higher turnout- and we could have our elction party (Sorry! Booze up) on Sunday afternoons???
37. Julian, Milan will play Champions League next season (with Inter, Roma and Chievo)
46 Indeed and this week there are council byelections today and on Friday and I recall one in Stockport many years ago held on a Saturday . A parliamentary byelection in Blackpool North was held on a Wednesday the day before Orpington .
2. Was I the only one to think Bridget Prentice was slightly starey eyed in that picture?
41. He gets a bad press for a reason… what has the third world done to deserve his speeches on Human Rights?!!
On thread, I don’t think ICM have covered themselves in glory with this poll, which doesn’t look very scientific compared with most. Any news of the Guardian ICM?
49 - Julian Glover, the Grauniad’s political correspondent, said on the previous thread that the results would be “interesting” for all three parties. Hmmmm, always the hibernian pessimist (though not on the Sophia scale of catastrophic foreboding) my hunch is Labour sharply down, LibDems advancing, and Tories also down slightly. :(.
I wait to be confounded…..
49 Ben. Julian Glover of ICM said at 243 on the previous thread that the results would be out shortly and “would be interesting for all three parties.” ….. No news so far.
50 John O. Again !! ….. you are my long lost brother ….. get lost !!
52. or your love child!
53 Andrea. Quelle Horror !! …… and a Tory councillor to boot …. Son come home !!!!!!
Well done Sir Peter Tapsell:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/742707.html
“my hunch is Labour sharply down, LibDems advancing, and Tories also down slightly.”
I wish. But as if.
47. Thanks Andrea. A bit of a shame but at least Juve are still down, and hopefully the -17 will be enough to stop them bouncing straight back up. As much as I prefer Inter to Milan/Juve I’m hoping Vieira doesn’t join them as that would mean being team-mates with Milosevic-supporting racist facist Sinisa Mihajlovic, and thus making the incident three years ago seem less serious.
There, that last bit was my attempt at politicising all this football talk.
49 - no I said “What is Bridget Prentice on with those mad eyes? I need some of it!” on previous thread.
56 - and if the poll does say that, then who will win the prize for being the first to shout “rogue”?
59 - You, presumably
“my hunch is Labour sharply down, LibDems advancing, and Tories also down slightly.”
mmmm - we’d better wait and see - do you mean LIBDEMs sharply advancing (from Labour and Tories) or Others sharply up - BNP/UKIP Alliance Party perhaps?
55 - wish I could read it! Sight seems to be down… suspicious.
What has he said? I am excited, this may be the only time a tory has said something I agree with………………..
62 - site is working; just persevere. Seem to be a lot of people looking at it.
63 have read it now, and some of the responses - dripping in bile, most of them. I am sorry but Israel and Israelis are beginning to disgust me.
Regarding the gender gap in support for David Cameron:
As I have said before: where good women go, men will follow. They are just a bit slow in catching up!
65. Not sure in UK, but here there’re still some women who are “advised” by their husband on how to vote just outside the polling station.
Well, I’ve seen old people being “advised” by their children on how to vote too.
Jack W are you p*ssed tonight already?!
66 - I’ve been telling my parents how to vote since 1983. Not that it makes much difference in the heartlands of middle Kent.
Re Winchester. I stayed with a friend in the fair city at the weekend. I think there has been some demographic change judging by my small sample, a lot of “liberal” metropolitan types have relocated there because of easy access to London and good local schools. In London they would most likely be (have been) Labour voters.
Thursdays - traditionally polling day because it used to be half-day closing in most parts of the country, plus religious reasons against voting on Sundays.
69 - if they’re “liberal”, then they must be delighted to see Mark “ID card” “TOUGH liberalism” Oaten step down.
69 - THink you are right Tabman but they are just the sort that Cameron seems to appeal to!
71 -
72 - but only if they’re women!
Mike, it seems the ConHomies don’t share your opinions on the abilities of George Osborne, although he looks pretty safe if this announcement is correct.
50 JohnO. I reckon Labour down badly Tories down and Lib Dems up is the only result that can be described as”interesting for all three parties”. Anyway sounds good to me now I’ve defected!!
66-Andrea. In some communities yes it is often the man who decides how the family votes. Postal votes seem quite common too.
In younger family households I believe it is often the woman of the house these days who influences how the man of the house votes. Also women have better social networks so good news like how fantastic Cameron is spreads quicker.
It just takes longer for men to realise as they are too busy watching football or even worse things, working or going down the pub. They will catch up with how great Cam the Man is and then we will be miles ahead in the polls.
76 - welcome aboard Roger!
68 - And do they actually listen to you?
My father usually listens, though he has flirted with Tony. He actually spoilt his ballot paper at the last election as he though the LD candidate was so weak. My mother - well, you never really know what mothers are thinking.
I have concerns about my 5 year old who has told me he is a Conservative. But surely, he only does it to annoy… doesn’t he?
43.47. Juventus have sold Cannavaro and Emerson to Real Madrid.
I wasn’t expecting that, but …
… no-one expects the Spanish Acquisition !!
Sorry, I’ll get my coat …
80 - as long as he grows out of it in the next 13 years … its all about testing the boundaries
80 - What a delightfully sharp boy you have! Pity about your parents though….
76. Defected? Have I missed something or am I being obtuse and missing the joke?
84 - Julian, how was your festival?
Roger has decided that Blair’s inaction over Lebanon is the last straw and he’s (I think) deciding whether to “wait for Gordo” or come over to us.
80. As a kid I got in a huff with my dad and wrote on a bit of paper that I’d vote Labour when I was 18 just to spite him. I got even more annoyed when my parents saw it and burst out laughing.
P.S. No, I didn’t follow it through.
Andrea - I remember discussing politics with my Italian grand parents some years ago and my communist grandfather told me quite confidently that he and my nonna ( grandma to the non-Italians ) voted Communist. After the plates had been cleared after this evening meal discussion and nonno ( male counterpart ) had begun his evening walk for a game of cards, I challenged nonna about what nonno had said. Nonna attended mass and was deeply religious - not that nonno did not contribute to church funds from time to time. Nonna told me that whilst she may agree with nonno in public he had no idea what she did in the privacy of the polling station.
86 - There’s a good lad…
ICM
Labour: 38% (+1)
Conservatives: 31% (+/-)
Lib Dems: 22% (-1)
Others 9%
You mean Con 38, Lab 31, LD 21 ….?
89- You must mean the other way round?
LD 22!
90 - Clearly. Labour weren’t ahead in the last ICM poll, or he’s got the changes wrong.
Re: 89 - Hmm…based on that, Sir Percy wins the Derby, Italy win the World Cup and Federer beats Nadal at Wimbledon.
Anyone prepared to offer me a price ??
Here’s a laugh: Maybe this way round? ha ha ha!
Lib 38, Lab 31, Con 22.
LD 38, Con 35, Lab 18
Mystic Moon says crystal ball is not working. These figures are August 2005! Need to give my balls a polish!
Good solid poll for the Tories. Now apparently well established in the upper 30s. More to do yet, though.
….or perhaps not!
Mystic Moon - do you know how many hares you have now set running?!?!?!
Mystic Moon went to Gaurdian site, then to politics, then to polls, saw latest poll, 11 months old! Mystic most humble and sorrowful to all. I used to be such a good medium. But having gained weight am now a large!
I think they have simply got the link to the PDF file wrong, as well as the name of the link - Tories weren’t at 38% last August.
Quite an achievement even by Grauniad standards.
87- Frank. As they said “God can see you in polling station, while Stalin no”
Ignore last post - they clearly have got everything wrong. I must go to bed and get some much needed sleep…
103 - proves the point that spiritual rather than temporal influences has the final say - well at least in Southern Italy
102- No I have just checked. They need to update their website!
Those numbers were right for last August. Oh how things have changed. Tories and Labour swapping around and the Libdems stagnating.
105. But in centre-Italy (Tuscany, Emilian, Umbria) probably thought Stalin could have seen them!
Btw, Tessa and Ming are coming!
http://images.thetimes.co.uk/TGD/picture/0,,324209,00.jpg
Breaking news - Israelis bomb UN.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1830294,00.html
Alan - and the UN response is going to be…………..
……more words!
DC, yes I saw those polls this morning. Thought it was a bit of a joke!
But, guys, you’re forgetting something. The winner of the next election isn’t what ICM says - it’s who the Sun backs!!!!!!!!!
106 - you wish DC.
The last ICM poll had the Lib Dems on 21%.
Never let the facts get in the way of a Tory wet dream eh?
107-Andrea. Sager do package tours to Italy then?
Holidays are for wimps.
110 Dan. The last ICM was for the Sunday Telegraph on 29th June :
Lab 35% .. Con 36% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 11%.
110- and that is stagnating Dan, flat lining, no progress…
And you presume too much about my dreaming habits… cheeky boy.
110 - No it didn’t they were on 18 in the last ICM poll for the Telegraph.
Still no need to let the facts get in the way!
We need a tragic painting for this scene - perhaps by Hogarth? - poll-starved pb.com addicts wait desperately for their next fix…
My guess is also LDs up at Lab expense (Lebanon), Tories stationary or slightly down, others up. But it’s only one more poll…
115 Nick P. Are you about to drop a baby in Gin Alley then Nick ?
115- My spinning machine is just itching to get going Nick.
and thats one more poll which will be showing the steady lead for the Conservatives and the return of two party politics…
109-Raj.The Sun will back who they think will win.
Expect them to back the Conservatives at the next election.
118 So a Murdoch puppet in power for nearly 30 consecutive years.
In that case, vote Brown!
Before the scandal, Oaten would probably have held on in Winchester against anything but a large national Conservative swing, and would probably have had a very good chance in Meon Valley. The scandal finished him as far as both seats are concerned. There is now an excellent chance that the Conservatives could take both seats, especially if the LDs persist in thinking Meon Valley is winnable and spread their resources too thinly (as with Guildford/Surrey SW last year).
Jonathan
Aha, but Brown could be the Murdock stooge for all we know!
We’ll see.
Anyway what happened to Face, BA and Hannibal’s stooges.
111-113
The last monthly poll for the Guardian can be found here.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2006/Guardian%20-%20June/guardian-jun-2006.asp
Comparing like with like is always sensible when discussing polling.
ICM actually have a link to the poll up on their site, but there’s no page on the link.
Ok so the last one in June was 37,32,21,8.
Maybe the July one is even better for the Conservatives which is why the Guardian are holding back?
117 - DC I don’t think it’s just your spin machine that is itching!
Labour and Tories between them are polling 70-72% - most sensible pundits understand that this is nothing like a return to ‘two party politics’.
It’s been getting on for 20 years since Labour and Tories could claim anything like a duopoly. In August 1988 they polled 86% between them with the Lib Dems on a mere 11%.
But then only you, Fred, Commentator and ‘Ave it continue with this tosh - but I suspect you are all more closely related than you would like us to think
For two main, traditional parties of government in modern Europe- getting 70-72% is very much a duopoly!
Dan
Stop with the stupid comments about DC having multiple IDs. It really makes you seem petty. It’s bad enough you haven’t bothered to apologise to me - just drop it.
127-Dan. hmm… well the weather is hot but I am cool in all the right places thank you very much!
There is an increase in overall minor parties and that includes the Libdems. Why do you try to lump in the Nationalists, BNP,Ukip, Green and others in with your own vote?
The fact remains that 80% of the electorate reject the Libdems who are the recognised third party. They were climbing but reality has set back in and the era of two party politics returned in earnest this year.
No relation to Fred, Commentator or ‘Ave it. In fact I do not know them but they do post plenty of accurate common sense on here. Were you suggesting in-breeding or that we are one and the same? The Libdem party conference is hardly a beauty pagent is it!
129- Raj. IDs? There is always something to remind me of Ming…
DC
Sorry, I don’t get the joke.
“stupid comments about DC having multiple IDs”
Is that why he has different policies for every day of the week?
(;^)
132-Raj. The three letters I D and S.
Why do we have to have this perpetual spinning from some Tories? I really enjoy reading some posts, for example Rik and Fred. These are partisan, and contain spin, but are incisive and thought provoking. But far too many others are restricted snide, nasty, full of Schadenfreude and endless spin.
Yes, all partisans spin, but the combination of feigned outrage and comments like “It really makes you seem petty. It’s bad enough you haven’t bothered to apologise to me - just drop it.” are petty in the extreme!
DC
Ah, ok.
Pol Pot
You could have been describing any of the big three parties. By the way, nice nick-name…..