Polling junkies be warned: the Guardian plays ICM striptease
July 25th, 2006-
If you want to know how the parties are doing you’ll have to wait
If you had hoped to wake up this morning to read how the parties are getting on as recorded in the longest running and most authoritative polling series in British politics - then tough.
The Guardian has decided to play polling striptease with its ICM July poll so although there are hints of goodies to come the paper is making us wait for the key data that we yearn for.
For although the Guardian has its July ICM poll as the splash story there’s no information, in the online edition at least, of what the actual voting intention poll shares are. There is the odd “glimpse of flesh” with data on how supporters of the different parties are viewing the US and events in the Middle East but not the real thing.
Because the ICM poll in the Guardian has been carried out at least once a month since July 1984 and because the pollster has pioneered techniques to ensure representative polling samples it’s the one with the most clout. The other two polling series with monthly newspaper slots, by Populus in the Times and YouGov in the Telegraph, only started after the 2001 General Election.
Amongst the findings that are published this morning are:-
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This is all interesting information which will add to the backcloth as the domestic political reaction as the events are examined. But these figures give us no hint at all about how the next General Election might go.
To those who say that the polls are totally irrelevant this far from a General Election I would point to ICM’s record with the Tory vote in the two years between the Iraq War and polling day. The pollster carried out 26 surveys for the Guardian recording the following shares:-
1 poll had the party at 35%
4 polls had the party at 34%
11 polls had the party at 33%
5 polls had the party at 32%
3 polls had the party at 31%
2 polls had the party at 30%
Actual election result - The Tories got 33.2%
All this is why I, for one, will take notice of what ICM reports tomorrow. Hopefully all will be revealed then - or like the good striptease act could they make us wait even longer?
Mike Smithson
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It seems to me that any international affairs problem serves (in domestic political terms) only to enhance the position of Ming Campbell and the Liberal Democrats.
His latest call for the Government to cease arms exports to Israel is, in my opinion, spot on. Not only does it confront Blair and his doomed government with the need to do more than come up with yet more platitudes; it also contrasts very favourably with the empty publicity-seeking posturing of Chameron in the Afghanistan theatre.
That is why I disagree profoundly with the position Darren customarily adopts (as last night). The Lib Dems are a “good thing”, and Ming is a good thing for the Lib Dems. Chameron is constantly being exposed for what he is - he does not even have the substance of a chameleon.
Might they have very surprising figures, and are being subtle in order to highlight them when they are released? If so, what would be the surprise? Tories farther ahead than before? Lib Dems surge? Labour takes back the lead?
Too many questions, and no answers at all, alas.
“On Israel’s operation in Lebanon those surveyed split 61-22% in the view that the country had over-reacted.”
Looks like Ming Campbell’s question at Prime Minster’s Questions, rather than Tony Blair’s answer, caught the public mood rather better on this issue then.
Far be it from me to dissent from the Liberal love-in here, but to my mind Michael Gove & co are quite right to adopt a firmer line on Hezbollah.
It’s all very easy to criticise Israel’s actions now without having any semblance of what it feels like to be in her position, surrounded by enemies who strive for her destruction.
In terms of public opinion, sure it’s hostile to Israel and indeed to America right now. But I think it will become increasingly obvious that David Cameron’s more cautious approach has been the right one as things develop over there.
This is one of the rare cases where it’s all right for the Conservatives to take a similar line to Blair.
I wonder if Lebanon is one of those issues with substantial class and gender differences? My impression (anecdotal as usual) is that middle-class voters are substantially more critical of Israel than others, and women rather more than men. If this type of issue does shift votes, like earlier posters I’d expect the LDs to benefit in tomorrow’s poll.
Speak for yourself
This woman isn’t critical of Israel at all in this regard.
Maybe the poll is essentially no change and the Guardian are trying to milk some coverage out of the more “interesting” bits of the poll!
I am with you Eleanor. Israel should not have to put up with day after day of rocket attack on its cities. If the Lebanese government will not / cannot do anything about Hezbollah (who are part of its governing coalition remember) then the Israeli’s are quite justified in going after Hezbollah. Civilian casualties are always to be regretted on whichever side they come but when Hezbollah use the Lebanese population as human shields, they are somewhat inevitable!
6. What, you mean actions like bombing Red Cross convoys?
I’m sure most people have some sympathy with Israel’s position and I did post on here a few days ago that it was justified in taking prolonged action to deal with Hezbollah and Hamas as they were more than just terrorist organisations, they both form part of governments. However, that does not justify the dismantling of Lebanese infrastructure, it does not justify the bombing of civilian areas in reprisal for rocket attacks and it certainly does not justify hitting the internationally recognised and protected Red Cross.
It is always very difficult to see how issues like this will play in domestic politics because no-one should want to take party advantage from a tragedy, but I do feel that a dangerously wide gap is opening between public opinion and the establishment view of both Israel and America. Admittedly, it’s unlikely to be a major issue in deciding how people vote, but it could be seen as another way in which many in the political class are out of touch with the views of those they represent.
I think Sage has got it right in his post 1. Ming is again showing leadership-and in a direction that the majority want to go-while Blair follows the Americans in their brutal foreign policy and Cameron dithers in some silly publicity stunt in Afghanistan.
That Labour supporters are the the only majority following a pro-American pro Israeli line is symptomatic of why I’m no longer a Labour supporter. They have finally metamorphosed into what I imagine a Michael Howard government would have been like. And it’s a pretty gruesome Government
1. & 4. Read like an orchestrated online standing ovation for MC…does he really need that much help?
Anyone who had seen the beauty of South Lebanon would not be celebrating anyone blasting it to rubble. Particularly when it is so pointless.
I am with Rik W on this one I reckon that there is no news in the rest of the figures which is why they have led with the US relationship findings as that fits in with the big story of the moment.
1-Jonny. But no one is listening to Ming and our efforts are to ensure that remains the case as it will help him stay in the job longer.
10-YB. He needs all the help he can get including from Conservatives like my good self.
Ming is great, wonderful leader, man of action, has future prime minister written all over him…
Sorry I was being harsh to labour supporters. mikes figures are a little ambiguous. From the guardian
“Even a majority of Labour supporters - traditionally more supportive of Mr Blair’s foreign policy position - think he has misjudged the relationship, with 54% saying Britain is too close to the US. Conservatives - 68% - and Liberal Democrats - 83% - are even more critical.
Lib Dems call for a halt to arms sales to Israel.
Apologies if this link has been previously posted :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5211382.stm
9 - Roger, Then Campbell is taking the easy opportunistic option of reflecting a possibly fleeting public sentiment, while Blair and Cameron (and yes the Bush you so know and loath) are at least taking a principled and unpopular stance that the Hizbollah terrorism from Lebanon must cease as an essential prerequisite for this crisis to end.
5 Before the instance of the Lebanon blew up, Nick Palmer wrote a letter to the Guardian on the Palestine (July 8 2006) — with which I largely agreed.
Commenting on the Israeli treatment of the Palestinian territories, Nick said “…. However, what we are seeing is the collective punishmemt of entire areas which is not permitted under the Geneva convention”.
Given those views, is it easy for you to stomach the line taken by the leaders of your party?
Ming’s call is irrelevant. The Israeli’s get all the military hardware they could possibly need from the US.
18 - but he is at least adressing the top story on the news agenda, Rik. Unlike someone else I could mention …
PS. Shouldn’t a party leader say something when an International crisis has been going on for fourteen days? Isn’t it time Cameron gave up the hippy trail and showed some leadership?
19 - As Rik points out he is in no way addressing the issue. The call to stop selling weapon’s to Israel is the kind of gesture politics that the Liberal Democrats seem to distain.
16. John, sorry, but it’s not because you disagree with Ming’s opinion and agree with TB and DC’s one that Ming becomes unprincipled.
18 Rik W. The Lib Dems have been the most critical of Israels disproportionate actions in Lebanon. So this follow up is not surprising. But IMO correct.
Pressure needs to be applied to Yo Blair from the mainstream in British politics and although I doubt Blair is listening, it doesn’t negate the need for British politicians to speak out and voice the majority concern in the British public that Israel has very badly misjudged this military adventure, that probably in the long term will best be remembered as a recruiting sergeant for many anti-Israeli groups and thus cause the deaths of many more innocent people on both sides.
[23] Completely agree. I don’t think that an arms ban to Israel is an empty gesture- the Israeli government is going to reap the whirlwind unless pressure is put upon the Olmert government to restrain themselves. Granted Hizbollah are a bunch of Fascists, granted Israel is entitled to defend itself, but “those that have the perception must make the allowances” and this merciless onslaught will only take Israel back to 1982- and can only fail.
By failing to speak out, the UK is guilty of a moral cowardice, as Ming Campbell has pointed out.
Hezbollah “who are part of its governing coalition remember”:
It is very hard to regard the Lebanese “government” as “governing.” It is a consititutional nicety that Hezbollah are on the inside, but central government is very weak in Lebanon, and this is a legacy of decades of intervention by Syria and Israel.
When I went to Lebanon in 1998, it appeared a very rich country, potentially. Much of the infrastructure was rebuilt. However, there was no working postal service, and no railway. The railway was destroyed in the civil war, and during these years, as there seemed to be no planning laws, many people built houses over the track - and nobody stopped them. After the way, the railway could not be restored as the track was covered with houses! This is the way many things in the country operate.
Lebanon is, and always has been, weakly governed. It is money that counts in the Switzerland of the Middle East. The idea that the Lebanese PM would have the power to rein in Hezbollah is ludicrous. I don’t know the way forward for the Lebanese constitution, but it’s certainly a mess.
yesterday night I had a weird thought about the LDs (Rennard and Ming) and a 2007 GE..could it be that they’re suggesting it just to stop any potential criticism of Ming’s leadership? Suggesting that a GE is near can also be a “look, we’ve to fight a GE soon, so no infightings and similar things” message. Or also a message for delegates at the conference not to stop new proposed policies (’”we’ve a GE soon, so we need to have policies” message).
But probably it’s just that I’ve a weird mind!
When are we going to hear from Gordon Brown on this? After all it is likely to be his problem within a year or so. He’s always talking about issues not strictly within the Treasury brief - when he he going to put his head about the parapet on these issue? And when are the Lib Dems going to wake up to the threat he poses to them and start attacking Brown for his ongoing low profile in this area?
I see the usual Tory war mongers are out early; as I said over the weekend you guys with the big mouths and love for all things Israeli just swap for one day with someone living in Beirut.
Again I ask why civilians (not their Governments) should be punished for something a band of terrorists are doing.
I also state again the IRA comparison which Paxman reiterated last night on Newsnight and which was not answered by the Rabi in the interview.
I suppose, Rik, John O and Matlock if it was a European country you would take exception to children being slaughtered, but these are just Arabs.
Dismissing what Ming or others calling for a cease fire as opportunists is disgraceful. Read the Guardian poll people you are in a very small minority, and your disgrace of a leader (along with jellyfish Blair) has said absolutely nothing….maybe due to the high content of Jewish frontbenchers in his team??
27 - Mike attacking Brown mite mean they have to drop their obsession with attacking David Cameron and I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
28. ‘maybe due to the high content of Jewish frontbenchers in his team??’
Oops…let the cat out of the bag a little there, didn’t we?
27 Mike S. I think Gordon will maintain his usual stance of a low media profile. No hostages to fortune and not too associated with the governments more difficult decisions.
26 Andrea. I think you should avoid eating those enchanting mushrooms before bedtime !
26 - Well, it’s a thought, but I don’t think it’d work. As far as ”we’ve a GE soon, so we need to have policies” is concerned, I suspect the reaction from many conference delegates would be “we’ve already got policies, it’s not us who are wanting to change them”.
JohnO. No-one can stop Hizbollah anymore than anyone could stop the IRA. They are part of the Lebanese Government in the same way that Sinn Fein is part of the Northern island Assembly. They have a constituency and are represented in the Lebanese Parliament. After twenty five years of wars Lebanon had really got it to-gether and they were turning their country into the most tolerant in the area. They had learned how to accomodate the different factions in a wonderful mix that had literally gone from war to peace overnight.
Remember that Israel has 1200 Lebanese prisoners all taken from Lebanese territory. It is hard therefore for Arabs to understand why when Hizbollah take two Israeli soldiers from Israel the world sanctions the destruction of Lebanon.
32. Jeremy S, your delegates sound like yellow version of Jeremy Corbyn*
26 - where did that come from, I wonder
27 - Mike, that’s not totally fair. David Laws has been a consistent critic of tax credits which as we know have Brown’s fingerprints all over them.
35. Tabman, it was the follow up of our email exchange. I blame you to have made me think about Ming with all this heat!
36 - the political equivalent of a cold shower
27. Never mind Gordon Brown. When are we going to hear from the Foreign Secretary?
38 - Also the political equivalent of a political cold shower!
Does this mean if we go to ICM’s website, we should expect a link saying “Click here for polling titlation!”?. But seriously, I think this is a little unfair on the normal person as it means that if they want the whole thing they have to buy several papers instead of just one!
39 - Sorry one too many politicals! The heat must be getting to me - not usually a problem in Edinburgh!
GB is beginning to remind me of Peter Sellers’ character in the film “The Party”.
A Situation develops, and people look up expecting to see GB somewhere at the heart of it. Only he’s suddenly appeared somewhere else, about as far from the scene of the Situation as it’s possible to get.
Come to think of it, there was a cowboy in that film too, and an elephant in the room…
38 David H. Apparently our intrepid Foreign Secretary is caravanning (not of the camel variety) in Lebanon ……. you’ve heard of Lawrence of Arabia, well the Blair government has Beckett of Bekka !
30 - Ah, no not really why is it when someone says something about a high % of Scots, Jews, ….. you get that sort of response Jellyfish?
Why is it that this is not a valid point? why is it that you insinuate that that is me being racist?
Please tell me is it not true, do the Tories not have a high proportion of Jewish front benchers? This is not a problem except when it stops them doing what is clearly right and speaking out against this slaughter in Lebanon.
Just as I say that some Arabs/Muslims(some of my own family) can be blinded by prejudice(and trust me I have had heated arguments about what a disgrace most of the countries in the region are)so can people of Jewish descent. It happens, its natural to a point but is it right?
and is it not also my right to question this without being accused of racism just to shut me up!
27. Mike, Gordon is in paternity leave.
43 - I have an interesting looking Bekaa Valley red to try some time from my mother’s visit to see my cousin in Lebanon a couple of years back. I hope there will be some vines left when this is over
46 Tabman. I don’t recall enjoying any Lebanonese wine … I’ll seek some out.
BTW are there several correct varient spellings of Bekka .. Beka .. Bekaa .. Beqa ?? or is there one accepted spelling ??
…… You know I’m keen on spelin !
44 - I appreciate your anger at the moment Big Mak but I do think you have to think about where that anger is directed. Lib dems have, of course, been the most vocal about this and their supporters reflect that as per the poll. It is a fact, however, that the tories ion parliament and in the country are nowhere near as belligerent as the labour party is and it is they, as they are the ones who could actually *do* something, that deserve the attacks.
The tories seem to be split, which in itself is a step forward, and I hope that Hague is given his head on this issue, as an alliance of tories and lib dems would be able to bring an enormous amount of pressure on Blair.
RE the official Conservative position, as espoused by William Hauge in the debate last week.
The party takes the view that whilst everyone accepts that every country including Israel has a right to defend itself, and whilst we are happy to see action against Hezboulah, the action has been disproportionate.
Anyone disagree with that?
Just a note, Israel now seems to accept that it can’t break Hzboulah by force, thus leaving it o Lebonease polititicians to do it by political means which is what they were trying to do.
48 - viniculture in Lebanon predates that in Italy and France by a couple of millenia, I believe. I’ve only ever seen “Bekaa”, but it is of course a transliteration so other spellings might be legitimate. You might find this article interesting.
I wonder what the party splits are within the 30% who think Blair has his relationship with the US “about right”
44 - I don’t think it is fair that to suggest that Labour or Tory views are shaped by having Jewish frontbenchers. The LDs have Jewish frontbenchers too.
Labour foreign policy is shaped by the Republicans in the USA. The Republicans are not beholden to a Jewish lobby either, and generally the Jewish vote in the USA goes to the Democrats. Interestingly, a strong pro-Israel stance helps the Republicans pick up the evangelical Christian vote in the Bible belt.
44 - So you can then at least agree that Hizbollah is a racist anti-semitic group that should be unequivocally condemned, even as you denounce Israel, Blair, Cameron, Matlock, Rik, and me?
Mac. I really don’t think counting Tory Jews is a very clever idea. Not all support Israel anyway.
But talking of prejudice…..I had arrived in Soho with four of my Lebanese clients to do some post production and we went to my favourite restaurant. The proprietress asked me where I’d been working. I said “Lebanon” and then introduced my clients. She said “I don’t fancy it. I dont like Arabs”. One of my table said “But we’re Arabs”. She looked around and said ” Don’t be silly you’re not Arabs”!
Indeed at Beirut airport there is a line which say’s “Arabs only”. It refers to people who dress in Arab costume I was told!
46/47 - Chateau Musar is the best known. It produces rather a good red (and I think some white too, though I’ve never tried any). I believe that it (somewhat heroically) continued to produce wine right through the civil war.
49 - are there any Israeli-owned construction companies experienced in large civil engineering projects, I wonder? I have heard it mooted that the Manchester Bomb in 1996 was a job-creation scheme for local building firms …
50/54 Tabman/Jeremy. Cheers for that !
The Guardian nearly got me - They have an ICM August poll on the top of their politics polls page - only by looking at the data does it become clear that it is last years.
I know we are in July but magazines launch their August issues in the middle of July. Why isnt the June poll in prime position, at least until they publish the July one?
53 - my experience in Lebanon was very much “we’re not Arabs here”. Some claimed to be Phoenicians. I have just dug out my Lonely Planet guide, which says they are also mixed with Turks, Greeks and Assyrians - as well as Arabs. There are also many Kurds and Armenians.
54 - I’ve just been to look at my bottle, which is a 1998 Kefraya (mentioned in the NYT article I linked in my reply to Jack). I’m rather looking forward to trying it now!
44 - The only person who has accused people of racism is you. Your comment suggesting Rik, AHM and John didn’t care about people because they were Arab was appaling.
55. That is in very poor taste.
The trouble is that opposition leaders can say what they want during these crisis situations and nobody notices. Sir Ming will get no “statesman-like-in-a-crisis” bounce and I am not surprised that Cameron is letting Hague do the running here. It;’s only us political junkies who care about Ming or Dave’s view - the rest of the world worries about Tony, George and the UN.
61 - who has benefitted most from blowing up Iraqi infrastructure?
hardly anyone will switch political allegiance over the Middle East stuff. The man on the British street does not really care (and why should they?) . You might get a few muslims and jews and students up in arms about it but I doubt they will change their vote from what they intended to vote for anyway.
To count the number of cabinet/shadow cabinet members with Jewish mothers is a bit simplistic. Jewish Brits that I know seems as divided about the wisdom of Israeli tactics as the rest of us.
63 - I should think it most unlikely that anyone other than the Lebanese will be rebuilding Lebanon - perhaps with a little French aid as happened after 1995.
The late PM Rafik Hariri owned the company Solidiere that did up much of the country. I imagine this would happen again under his son, and vast sums will also pour in from the Lebanese diaspora around the world. The actual construction work will almost certainly be done by Syrian guest-workers, who seemed to do all the building jobs when I was there. They were not well-liked.
52 - Yes I do, in the same way as the Israeli government is anti-Arab, but as they are a democratic state they do it in the name of security. As the UN envoy said it is seems like they are committing crimes against humanity, and be they a terrorist group or a state it sticks.
51 - I agree to an extent, but the Jewish lobby has a much bigger (even disproportionate) financial hold on both US parties.
53 - I agree again, most Lebanese are very western facing, modern thinking and democratically inclined people. That is exactly why this action in Lebanon will only help to push the country closer to the bosom of Syria or Iran and that this why my heart bleed for it and its people.
Campbell is touted as being strong in foreign affairs and defense, but his recent foray into this area doesn’t support this.
Whatever you think of the two sides and their actions in any conflict, demanding the cut off of arms and supplies to one side only is usually read, internationally, as support for the other side.
He must know this if he has any expertise and also knows that at such a time as this no government will make such a definitive and easily misread gesture.
His intervention, fortunately, has and will have no real effect, his voice is silent in the international arena. He must know this too. So what was the point.
Well, either he is unaware of the international realities of nuance and tone or it was domestic points scoring.
It was a clumsy and opportunistic proposal which will not be heard by the combatants as Campbell is not a weighty voice in those parts. It sold well domestically but in these situations a real statesman holds back and sees real peace as the priority. For an opposition leader this means letting the government know your view but keeping silent in public and not using an international tragedy for political leverage.
If you really want to stop the conflict then you do not take sides like this. You can hardly be a peacemaker if you have been a partisan supporter.
60 - Max, as appaling as their blind support for Israil, as appaling as the dead children we see every night on TV, as appaling as a country destroyed from the inside out??
My heart bleeds for them, it really does!
RE 68, As far as I am aware the UK does not supply Hezboulah or indeed the Lebonease government with arms, so why would Ming call for us to stop what we are not doing?
Anyone remember Paddy during the Bosnian crisis? Head and shoulders above the pathetic Major government and the feeble (if you can believe it!) silence by Blair. It was the making of Paddy and IMO led to the rise of the Lib dems as a serious force. Ming has the chance again. I can’t remember such a silent leader of the opposition at a time of crisis. “When the going gets tough- Cameron hides in a Burka in Afghanistan” No wonder people questioned whether he was ready for the job
68. A good deal to be said for that line of argument I think. Campbell, I fear, is playing to the new tendency among middle class lefties to paint Israel as an international hate figure of a similar ilk to apartheid South Africa. There was a letter in one of the broadsheets the other day, from a correspondent proclaiming that ‘he and his wife’ would henceforth be boycotting Israeli products. All so drearily familiar.
With apologies to Green Day but a song for ICM/Guardian
So tired tired of waiting tired of waiting are we
So tired tired of waiting tired of waiting are we
We are lonely souls and are nothing till we read you
But you keep us waiting all of the time what can we do
It’s your life and you can do what you want
Do what you like but please don’t keep us waiting
Please don’t keep us waiting
I am a friend of Isreal, who believes it has a right to defend itself, however it’s attack on Lebanon is an horific mistake.
The problem with Israel’s strategy is that like the IRA, Hizbollah is both a terrorist organisation & a political force with popular support. As we in the UK have seen, if a terrorist organisation has popular roots it is virtually impossible to destroy by force, you cut of its head & it grows two more. The only way to disarm it is through political dialogue.
The idea that you can destroy Hizbollah by bombing south Beirut is like the British Govt deciding to smash the IRA by bombing west Belfast. The Lebanese having been trying to engage Hizbollah in the political process with seats in the Cabinet in order to coax them into more peaceful methods (sounds a familar strategy that doesn’t it?).
The Israelis though have lost patience with this approach & egged on by the Americans want to smash Hizbollah military capacity. However, to do so they not only have to take out its rockets, which they are being rather poor at doing through airstrikes (shades of the US in Serbia), they are now finding they have to have a ground offensive as well.
Olmert is repeating Begin’s mistake in 1982 - what was to be a short surgical operation is now in danger of running out of control & could turn into yet another quagmire for the Israeli army. That’s why the Israelis are now thinking about an international peace keeping force led by NATO, beacuse we out it they will be forced to re-occupy south Lebanon with all its destabilising consequences.
What is depressing about the UK government’s approach, is that yet again it believes it has to cow-tow to rightwing nutters in teh Bush Administration like John Bolton, in order to have a ‘moderating’ influence - surely Iraq has taught it that Bush will pay lip service to that but in the end will do whatever he was going to do in the first place. Depressingly Cameron is equally enthralled by Neo-Cons like Michael Gove and refuses to take a any line that might be seen as critical of US policy. That leaves Ming Campbell to force the moral disquiet of his country & speak for strategic commonsense in calling for a ceasefire before it is too late.
70 Benedict White It is not a matter of whom you supply but who you are perceived to support.
If the Uk government at this point were to cancel licenses for arms for Israel, the word would fly about the middle east that the UK was no longer ’supporting Israel’ and from that all sorts of strange constructs would be built.
When tensions are high strange monsters of misinformation are rampant.
66 - fair point, and I was being deliberately over cynical. But in the context of a massive over-reaction it does make you wonder …
72 But Israel has become a state terrorist regime willing to kill innocent women and children and fire rockets at clearly marked red cross ambulances . Tony Blair will toe the US line and say and do nothing , Rik W and the other Conservative apologists will sit back and supply more arms si Israel can kill more children so yes it is familiar that it is a Lib Dem leader who is speaking out against these atrocities .
69 - Yes it’s quite obvious that my last post was expressing a moral equivalence between your generally unpleasant tone and the ongoing crisis in the middle east. I fail to see how any other inference could be drawn.
9. - Roger. I think it’s unfair to call Labour voters neo-cons. They are pragmatists who occupy the centre ground. They don’t want to quarrel with Europe like the Tories or America like the Lib Dems. They may be sickened by what is going on in Lebanon, but they are also realistic enough to know that there is not much Britain can do about it. We’re a medium-sized country on the north-western fringes of Europe. We have no influence over Hezbollah, Syria, Lebanon or Israel at all. And Mr Blair has minimal influence on Mr Bush - even Condi Rice has minimal influence over Bush, so a bit unrealistic to expect a foreign leader to be able to move him. I don’t think Thatcher would have been able to move Bush either - he has a “decider” complex, the ego of a dictator, look how he is extending presidential power in America. Mrs T was lucky in that Reagan was amenable to suggestion.
I think it’s a bit dangerous for people to go about talking like Britain could affect the situation - it feeds into beliefs of people in the muslism community that Britain could solve the problems in the middle east but is CHOOSING not to (and these beliefs were picked up by extremists and resulted in the events of last July), when in fact it’s not about choice, we simply have no power over the Israel-Palestine thing at all. It makes you feel helpless and sick and doesn’t accord with the “powerful Britain” of people’s fantasies, but there you go.
72 - Fred, that is no change from whenever. What, as this poll shows, has changed is that right wingers are now much more critical of the Israei government than the supposed left.
As for political points I don’t think that these type of conflicts are fertile ground for left/right polarisation anymore.
Fred - I’m not sure why I bother responding
but here goes … that is a lazy response, and one the “other side” also deploys. Just because someone with whom you disagree politically says something, doesn’t mean it can’t be right.
A great many people recognise that Israel is one of the only true deomcracries in the region and stand by its right to defend itself. It does not mean that they cannot also criticise the method and extend to which Israel “defends” itself, especially when it is becoming increasingly clear that its actions are going to produce a situation worse than the one that we started with.
70 - Unpleasant tone, yet again I ask you guys this? What exactly would you feel sitting in theist country watching as your place of birth was bombed into the dark ages?
Please I really want to know exactly how you would react, with a cheery smile, with a spring in your step?
My tone is the least of your worries Max, the damage that this will do to world security and the profile for Britain as the US pet poodle.
I hope we in this country never have to live through such horrors, I would be interested to gauge your tine then Max.
73 - More objectionable rubbish from Mark Senior!
Any fule no that Tired of Waiting was written by Ray Davies and that the Green Day version is merely the latest in a long series of cover versions of the original Kinks classic.
RE 75, I agree to some extent. What we actually supply is fairly small and would make no diference in military terms, it would make a huge difference in political terms. I suspect that it would actualy make it harder to influence the situation on the ground rather than easier.
What is clear is that we need to deal with the wider issue of resolution 242, the closures and economic strangle hold over the Palestinains and all sides need to be dealt with at once. Picking them off peace meal does not appear to be working.
83 - fule and no - Back to school boy .
68% of the population “middle class lefties” Fred? You better join UKIP.
Lebanon takes a while to understand. I remember saying the first time i worked there “Everyone seems to get on fine. There’s no difference that I can see between Christians and Muslims”
“But you havent met any Muslims”!
“What about the crew, the agency, the hotel staff the taxi drivers?”
“All Christian”.
Somehow I’d thought that the darker more manual workers were Muslim whereas the perfect tri-lingual university educated (of which there are many) were the Christians. So I asked to be taken to the muslim areas. The only difference at first sight was the posters in the Christian areas had more nudity than you would get in the UK whereas in the Muslim areas Brazillian bikinis had become swimsuits! And shop signs were 50% Arabic.
Apparently like NI the way you can tell a Muslim from a Christian is name and area that they live. By the last time i went the agency had a Senior Muslim account director and work was so plentiful for the Lebanese that several Syrian labourers (Muslim) were hired to do the fetching and carrying. They arrive from the Bekaa Valley at 4 AM and are chosen off a line. They return for the 2 hour return bus journey usually after 10PM. Anyone who thought Syria were the Masters and the Lebanese the Servants should visit!
81. Well thanks for that insight. My point really was that MC seems to be using this crisis as an opportunity to shore up the support of the Guardianista/Islamista coalition which swung towards the Lib Dems at the GE because of Iraq. It is questionable for me whether this is really ’statesmanlike’ - or even in the narrow interests of the Lib Dems in the longer term.
I wonder how many people criticise the israels because its easier and convenient. One because they won’t get hate mail through their door and threats of death and two because they are witless in understanding anything about miltary conflict. If Hizbollah had jet fighters they’d be using them ok, they just don’t and thank god.
It’s a conflict, civilians die not matter how precise the apparent attacks. The especially are under threat when a) they operate rocket launchers out someones back yard and 2) they fire said rocket launchers them at population centres in the hope of hitting anything in sight.
And before some wag comes on about blowing up bridges, its a perfectly fair approach…people can get round blocks but large trucks that are required to carry large rockets can’t so easily. These things can’t really be moved by two blokes on a bike. Most of what people are going on is press reporting which is weak to say the least. Anybody who thinks they hit Beirut airport and the main Lebanon/Syrian highways to stop two soldiers being ferreted out of the country are mad. It’s to stop weapons getting in. In fact it makes perfect sense.
Can any UN supporting individudals tell me what the UN has been doing in South Lebanon whilst an armed group who is not een the official army of the state in question has been building tunnel complexes for years? lets turn this around, is it about Israel? Is it about Hizbollah..actualy no its about yet another failure of the UN to police what it was mean’t to police. Just like them letting thousands die in the former Yugoslavia when they sat on their hands…pathetic. If you want this problem solved keep the UN away.
Mark Senior..red cross ambulance..what was in it? Who was in it? Does anyone know? Was it a mistake rather than malice? Do you live in a non-mistake society? Remember when the Israelis apparently shelled a beach and Margaret Beckett came storming out saying how disturbed she was? What shell was that? Did Margaret come out and say she was wrong?
In short we just don’t know. What we are not seeing is where the majority of the action is..a) in the border area and b)in the Bekaa Valley. In short we are not seeing a complete war at all.
Never ceases to amaze me that the first line of LD attack in any subject is “why has DC not sorted it out” - as if the leader of the Uk opposition could do anything. I mean the Prime Minister cant do anything - his buddy Bush can’t even see the value of him getting involved.
This isn’t our war, the parties involved don’t give a fig what the Uk government thinks - let alone Ming C - and he knows it - he’s just plucking the heart strings of voters with a policy that he’ll never be in a position to implement. Plus ca change..
82: All the things you say could apply to Israelis sitting in Haifa - i hope we never see that here either.
It’s terrorists (who started it) vs. a democracy. You seem to support the terrorists.
It is legitimate to question whether Israel has over-reacted, for what it’s worth I think they have, although I cannot conceive of what it’s like to be in their position, and this makes it hard to criticise. Why not take a moment to imagine yourself in an Israeli village being attacked by a Hizbollah rocket? I fail to see the difference between that and your exhortation that we should imagine ourselves as a Lebanese.
90 - I thought that Lebanon had voted recently too, I also seem to remember that Palestine voted as well.
The problem is that Bush believes that democracy is only fine when it gives you the result you want.
His contempt for democracy is one of the main problems.
90 - According to some of the comments above it would seem some would have us believe that the Israeli’s would be sitting comfortably in their houses thinking of all those juicy construction contracts as the rockets fly in. When they’re not tracking down dangerous members of the red cross of course.
Fine post Snowflakes 79 and a month ago I’d have agreed with you. I know the British government can’t change anything but if just for once it could stand up and be seen to walk with the angels and say without caveat that blowing a country to destruction is unequivocally wrong and if it doesn’t stop it’s leaders should face war crimes trials. And if it’s leaders pass through London they will recieve the Pinochet treatment. Remember Pinochet when supporting Labour had a moral dimension?.
88 - yokel the Red Cross ambulances had Lebanese civilians inside who had already been injured by Israeli bombing of targetted civilian buildings . I do not believe these Israeli attacks on women and children are mistakes , I think that in doing so they hope the civilian population in Lebanon will turn against Hezbollah whereas in reality it will have the opposite effect .
88. Very good post.
RE 86, We first had an Egyptian male servent then a female Syrian one. Personaly I prefered the Egyptian.
I suspect what concerns Lebanons neighbours most is its capacity to make cash given half the chance.
90 - I agree that being an Israeli under Hizbollah fire must be extremely scary, and deadly. Although, statistically, as a Lebanese civilian you are far more likely to be killed in the current conflict. You also have have fewer places to run to as Lebanon is smaller (about the size of Kent, Sussex and Essex put together) and the whole country is under fire from Israel. And for non-Shiite Lebanese, there is a feeling that this dispute has nothing to do with them. They are caught in the middle.
I have in recent years become more pro-Israel with regard to the Palestinians. (I remember Bruce Anderson’s great quote that Yassir Arafat was a man “who never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”). But my sympathies here lie very much with the Lebanese too. Israel is going OTT. They are destabilising Lebanon, and in the long run that will not help them.
Yokel, given the knowledge we have been given regarding the lack of care or accuracy of Israeli shelling it is pretty definite that Israel did indeed shell the beach in Gaza (also given the forensic evidence and not the after the event Mossad propaganda). I believe it was a cock up but cock ups have consequences as much as deliberate shelling.
97 - well said.
The idea that Israel is making itself safer by destabilising Lebanon is ludicrous.
Bush has the influence to stop this (like Clinton did). He’s content to let the middle east burn in the name of defeating terrorism. Osama Bin Laden will be laughing in his cave while watching Fox News.
The US presidential elections cannot come soon enough. Regardless who wins - hopefully they will see how the idiotic neo-con foreign policy pursued by the shrub administration has made the world so much more dangerous.
94. Can you prove it? The answer is no you can’t. You have a whole theory based on your own bias. You have already ruled out that it could have been a mistake. You have already ruled out who could have possibly been in an ambulance with the civilians, you have already ruled out the confusion of battle where pilot is told to watch out for two vans or whatever. Secondly you assume it will have the opposite effect, again can you prove it? No you state hard facts when in fact its speculation. Maybe it was deliberate, maybe it wasn’t but in reality we do not know.
If you are telling me that somewehere at the top of the Israeli hierarchy they are are telling pilots to go bomb ambulances, you fail to understand two things about Israel and Israelis…One its small, two people gossip in a big way, everyone knows someone. It would get out and objections even amongst the miltary would be raised. Commanders in Israel publically resign over their unhappiness with things big and small, its the nature of the country. It would get out and it will get out.
Now what you may say is that the media were there, so were the media on a beach when apparently an Israeli shell exploded a few weeks ago down in Gaza. Remember it? Did you think it was a deliberate act? It was reported as an Israeli miltary shell, it even had Margaret Beckett saying how distrurbed she was. What, apparently, really happened?
Whoeever said that the Israelis and Hizbollah etc don’t give two fiddlers for the British governments views you are spot on, they don’t and won’t. The US are the big players and rightly so. Live with it. It’s pompous bollocks from the opposition right now. Yes there is no point calling for a ceasefire because no one inportant in this situation cares. Whats more important being seen to be doing something or actually doing something?
95 - are you goign to treat us to your wisdom on how to solve the crisis then?
Yoekal, The UNIFIL mandate does not include rules of engagement nor the numbers required to do either of its two main tasks, one to stop the PLO attacking Israel and two to stop Israel attacking the Lebanon.
Unifil was set up before the Shia had an effective fighting force.
If id did have a wide enough mandate to deal with Hezboulah then Hezboulah would fight it, unless there was a political solution..
Back to Lebonease government policy.
No more election night counts?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5212542.stm
Jon. To describe it as “terrorists versus a democricy” is to miss the point. Lebanon is also a democracy. Hisbollah is part of that democracy. It is in Parliament because it represents the views of a reasonable section of the Lebanese public. To suggest that because it has a militarty wing the government of Lebanon is illigitimate doesn’t make sense.
For comparison Sinn Fein sit’s in the Northern ireland Assembly. If the IRA killed or kidnapped a couple of Irish soldiers would any sensible person think that the South destroying Northern Ireland was a suitable way of dealing with the problem? The sooner the World stops treating Israel as a rabid dog that shouldn’t answer to anyone because it’s out of control, the better.
104 Hezbollah has also gone down the same route of many initially solely terrorist organisations of grassroots activity to help the dispossessed. They are the party who get things done on the ground and as such garner practical as well as emotional support.
00 - That both Iraq and Afghanistan were read so wrongly by the US administration means that the likelihood of this situation being the same (i.e. it’ll make things worse) shortens the odds considerably.
The same with the ambulance attack. The likelihood of an attack on a mock ambulance with mock Red Cross staff is so miniscule that betting on it being anything else is akin to thinking that Elvis is alive.
Those thinking logically about it have a better perspective than the wishful thinking of the conspiracy theorist. You wanna bet on something, I could do with a bit of fleecing of the gullible.
103. Why can’t they count postal votes in advance ? Next day counts would be less exciting as exit polls would be all over the place…
Like others this morning I am no apologist for Israel, I generally think their ‘eye-for-an-eye’ mentality makes the Middle East a more dangerous and unstable place than it need be.
But I do accept that the Arab terrorists generally take restraint to mean weakness of intent and therefore a half-hearted response by Isreal to what was an unprovoked attack would have served only to encourage Hezboulah and Hamas.
IMO therefore, there is justice in the Israelis action, hard though it is for us watching Lebanon systematically torn apart at the very moment it seemed to be on the path to recovery.
105 - I think there are strong parallels between Hizbollah and SF. Bit of local crime, the Shinners would sort it out. Speeding motorists in your area, they send round the boys with some tarmac to make a few speed bumps. This is community, pavement politics far beyond the what LDs do. This sort of approach made SF popular, and the same approach may be what Hizbollah does.
There is probably a big overlap between Hizbollah the party and Hizbollah the “guerillas” (as the BBC has settled on calling them). But there will be some in the party that are not connected to the “guerillas”. (This is also true of SF - I think that Mitchell McLaughlin and Barbra?gh De Bruin were never IRA members IIRC).
If they follow SF, give it a few years and Hizbollah may be wearing Savile Row suits talking about the intransigence of the Israeli government.
103 - like the link. What is Bridget Prentice on with those mad eyes? I need some of it!
No, actually blowing up bridges and attacking airports is not “a perfectly fair approach”. It is astonishing to hear you say that. It is illegal under the UN charter to target civilian infrastructure; it is also immoral; and in the current situation it is disgusting because as is repeatedly pointed out again and again (AND is accepted by BUSH and BLAIR who keep calling Iran or Syria (whichever suits the subtext of the day) the ‘puppet-masters’ of Hizbullah) the Lebanese govt and people cannot control Hizbullah. So why are these people who cannot control Hizbullah being targetted? 1. Revenge. 2. To make Olmert look tough. 3. A vain attempt to make Hizbullah unpopular in Lebannon by killing civilians. And to you people who continue to suggest that the targetting of refugee columns and red-cross vehicles is “accidental”, shame on you. I have been reading many of you for years on this site and have enjoyed disagreeing with you on political argument, but to see some of you engage in such blatent speciousness and duplicity in the face of obvious camera evidence is a really painful thing to witness.
90 - What a lazy, simplistic and crass argument. You may as well say it Good Vs Bad!
What a lovely democracy that flouts a load of UN resolutions about the West Bank, Gaza and Golan Heights?
A democracy that kills civilians under the excuse that “they hide the terrorist” and that target Red Cross ambulances.
If you read my post it blames the Arab countries as well as Israel, no one is blameless but it seems that the Lebanese people - Disproportionately - are being maimed and killed in the name of fighting terrorism.
110. Steady on, old chap.
110. So were “the Dambusters” war criminals then ?
Roger
The Irish comparison is rot - if the IRA had had thousands of rockets in the Irish republic targeting Befast & Londonderry, had occupied the counties in the Irish republic bordering N Ireland, were being supplied with Libyan arms by sea and air through Dublin & Cork then perhaps you could use the comparison.
113 - the comparisson is not valid.
(i) the “Dambusters” raid was in the context of war between states
(ii) the Nazi state “started it”
(iii) the aim of the raid, unlike most of the city-bombing (”Area”) campaign was primarily military. The dams contained the water supply for the Ruhr industrial area.
(iv) you cannot apply the morality of 2006 to 1943; the world has moved on since then.
06. I’m not saying it didnt happen, I’m not saying it was an elaborate charade. What I’m saying is that we don’t know for sure what teh ciorcumstances and the motivations were and you don’t either.
Was an ambulance hit, yes. What the motive was we don’t know and thats my contention. I’m prepared to bet that you don’t know the motivation of a pilot who dropped the bomb…I’m prepared to bet that you don’t know whether the technology worked brilliantly ro went wrong…I’m prepared to bet that those who believe that it is a deliberate strategy on the part of the Israelis can’t prove it.
Since I’m not the one turning speculation into apparent facts I’m certainly game to bet against you on the above because those are my points that you contest. Now if you are sure of your opinion as fact and have the concrete proof to back it it up I’m sure you’ll put your money down.
Interested?
And yes it is a minefield….and unbettable but you if you want to…
SBS. It’s more than what Sinn Fein do in NI. As with Hamas they finance local schools, bus services and housing. Hisbollah have their own TV station. They are also thought to be uncorrupt which is particularly why Hamas won the Palestinian election.
I think it unlikely that Israel has targetted ambulances deliberately. War is violent, people make mistakes, reaction times are short, targets are pinpoints in a fast-moving jet aircraft.
The point is that once you engage in a military campaign civilians will be killed.
107 - The idea that having to check signatures requires a move to Friday voting is a bit of a red herring. At present 90% plus of postal votes are opened and checked in advancs and that practice could continue, although it would take longer.
The voting papers themselves are then put into ballot boxes and counted on the night with the rest.
Saying that there are other very good arguments for counting the next day. Given that accuracy is quite an important part of an election count it is probably better to use staff who have had the chance of a decent night’s sleep.
Those who want to sit at home watching the results programmes can still do so, just in a different time slot.
Can I add that so far this thread mostly belies the usual collection of increasingly intemperate talking past each other response set typical of discussion of middle east issues.
Lets try and keep it that way
Could we please leave the ME for other sites - or at least confine its discussion to the implications for the British political scene? On any site, it’s the one issue guaranteed to lead to bitterness and intemperate abuse by both sides, and civil discussion, let alone coming to any sort of consensus on the rights and wrongs, is impossible.
Roger…Sinn Fein and associated bodies fund lots of things..indirectly…for example the West Belfast festival where pop concerts mingle with Hunger Striker Memorial 5 a side football tournaments..
I wonder do Hamas provide the schools with maps showing the state of Israel?
118. Tabman you know this, I know this but some people seem to believe that mistakes are not possible, that people are human, they believe its a vast deliberate plan.
16 - When you come back from your fact finding mission let me know. That the balance of probability is on my side makes me very secure in my potential future financial position. It is not enough in a situation like this to aquirmingly suggest that ‘well, we can’t be definite’. This is how atrocities are too often explained, from Srebrenica to the marsh arabs to whatever. In the end you have to have the guts to say what is probable and anyone left prevaricating can go hang. The gutless will, no doubt, attempt to say little.
120 - not those of us with jobs and wives who would question the use of a day off to watch an election count!!!
Hezbollah according to the newswires is asking for an unconditional truce. Not the end quite yet I think but some progress here…
114. Reading that I wonder if Roger wasn’t too far off the mark (for a change) - the IRA a) has had huge stockpiles of weapons in the border counties b) has perhaps not ‘occupied’ said areas but certainly at times used them very easily as launching pads for attacks and c) was indeed supplied with arms with the connivance of elements within the Irish government, notably the much mourned Charlie Haughey. Come to think of it Libya was one of the biggest arms suppliers, too.
114 - and in those circumstances it would have been acceptable for us to go in and take out the terrorists and their weapons. It would still have been wrong for us to target Ireland’s civilian infrastructure and population.
observer..I could be on the verge of taking someone to the cleaners..dont stop me now.
113: Under the UN rules defined AFTER WWII specifically to PREVENT such things ever happening again (and agreed to by ALL powers), yes many allied activities if repeated now would now rightly be considered war-crimes. Carpet bombing residential areas of cities, firebombing Hamburg, Dresden, Tokyo; nuking Hiroshima, Nagasaki. You cant seriously think it would be OK to do those things in the modern world? Or maybe you are pretending that the threat to the world from Hizbullah is the same as the threat to the world from a Nazi war-machine that had conquered the whole of mainland Europe? Yawn.
127 - the problem Neil is that its very difficult to tell who are the civilians and who are the terrorists, especially when you invade somewhere - an act that tends to radicalise the moderate supporters. There is not some black and white distinction; support in these cases is a big greyscale from totally opposed to differnet levels of sympathy and support to the guy firing the rocket. Time after time we have seen that the only way to isolate terrorists is to adress the concerns of the populations that host them.
28 - That a bet is null and void if unproveable leaves you in a quandary as that is what you are trying to suggest. Your stance means that you could never win, that I bet on the proof of something being found means that I *could* win.
You lose or you get nothing, that’s your choice and it ain’t a good betting one. At least I would have a chance of proof being found so the odds are stacked in my favour, I win or I get nothing!
127… Combatants including Hizbollah need infratstructures to operate..weapons & military (large rockets, other supplies & the Syrian Army respectively in particular in this case) generally travel by road until the last few miles before the battlefield. Thats why its done
Only if you are proved correct and only if the sources are consdiered legitmate by both parties in the bet….
33 - So under what circumstances could you claim? I can’t see any unless you time limit the bet which I’d never fall for anyway.
I myself have been forced to run out the Marritt Hotel on the Beirut waterfront when Israeli jets blew up the adjacent electicity station. I later heard